For my view: No — Tuesday’s Senate setback is not the whole story.
The failed CLARITY Act vote is still the main short-term problem because it creates regulatory uncertainty for Circle. The Senate vote was 49–50, below the 60 votes needed.
But CRCL has other important factors:
Arc launched successfully with 100+ institutional/ecosystem builders.
Higher interest rates can support Circle’s reserve income.
USDC continues to grow, with $73.3B in circulation at Q2-end.
However, the market still needs to see real revenue and profit from Arc.
Bottom line: CRCL is facing a mix of regulatory risk + valuation risk + execution risk. Arc is promising, but it needs to prove it can become a profitable business.
Two Rounds of Treasury Buybacks, and Long-End Yields Still Hit a New High?
The Treasury bought 20- to 30-year debt again Wednesday, capped at $6B — second round in two weeks; the first filled only $5.2B. The bid came, yields didn't fall: the 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15bp and the highest since 2007, as was the 30-year. October Fed hike odds hit 69.7%. Stocks fell: Nasdaq -1.13% to 26,936.04, erasing Tuesday's record; QQQ -0.84% to $741.21; S&P 500 -0.75% to 7,706.03; Dow -0.68% to 51,511.59. Bulls say firm data, not weak demand, is lifting yields; bears say two buybacks and a new high prove the bid can't absorb supply. At what yield do you redo the math on stocks?
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