#Fed Hike — Why Didn’t Stocks Rally? 📉

Kentzw

09-17 13:51

The 25bp hike wasn’t the surprise. What comes next is.

The Fed delivered the expected move to 3.75%–4.00%, but stocks barely reacted — QQQ +0.03%, SPY -0.44%.

Why? The market wanted reassurance that this could be the last move.

Instead, the message was: inflation is still too sticky, and another hike remains on the table.

That creates a tough setup for equities:

📌 Higher rates → pressure on valuations

📌 Sticky inflation → fewer cuts ahead

📌 Strong earnings/growth → support for stocks

📌 AI/tech → still carrying much of the market momentum

So the real question isn’t “Did the Fed hike?”

It’s “Has the market fully priced the next hike — or is another repricing coming?”

I’m watching Treasury yields and QQQ closely from here. 👀

What do you think — already priced in, or more volatility ahead?

Markets Rebound Day After Rate Hike — What's Driving the Rally?

Stocks took back Wednesday's Fed day and more: QQQ +1.73% to $716.92, SPY +1.13% to $762.60, the S&P 500 +1.14% to 7,637.76, against Wednesday's 0.45% decline. The lift came from outside the Fed. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell, which says the labor market is not cooling the way the rate path assumes, and oil kept sliding, easing inflation pressure. Yields fell and megacap tech led. The uncertainty everyone waited on is behind the market now. But the dot plot still points to one more hike this year, and only the hike already delivered is in the price. What is the market betting on?

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Comments

wavyloo
09-17 14:32
wavyloo
Feels mostly priced for one more move, not a higher-for-longer path. The dot plot gap is where repricing can still bite.

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The lift came from outside the Fed. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell, which says the labor market is not cooling the way the rate path assumes, and oil kept sliding, easing inflation pressure. Yields fell and megacap tech led. The uncertainty everyone waited on is behind the market now. But the dot plot still points to one more hike this year, and only the hike already delivered is in the price. What is the market betting on?\n\n","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bbdce0c3859b57aa6bde24d88d8f427"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"#Fed Hike — Why Didn’t Stocks Rally? 📉","html":"<html><head></head><body>The 25bp hike wasn’t the surprise. What comes next is. \nThe Fed delivered the expected move to 3.75%–4.00%, but stocks barely reacted — QQQ +0.03%, SPY -0.44%.\nWhy? The market wanted reassurance that this could be the last move.\nInstead, the message was: inflation is still too sticky, and another hike remains on the table.\nThat creates a tough setup for equities:\n📌 Higher rates → pressure on valuations\n📌 Sticky inflation → fewer cuts ahead\n📌 Strong earnings/growth → support for stocks\n📌 AI/tech → still carrying much of the market momentum\nSo the real question isn’t “Did the Fed hike?”\nIt’s “Has the market fully priced the next hike — or is another repricing coming?”\nI’m watching Treasury yields and QQQ closely from here. 👀\nWhat do you think — already priced in, or more volatility ahead?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>The 25bp hike wasn’t the surprise. What comes next is. \nThe Fed delivered the expected move to 3.75%–4.00%, but stocks barely reacted — QQQ +0.03%, SPY -0.44%.\nWhy? The market wanted reassurance that this could be the last move.\nInstead, the message was: inflation is still too sticky, and another hike remains on the table.\nThat creates a tough setup for equities:\n📌 Higher rates → pressure on valuations\n📌 Sticky inflation → fewer cuts ahead\n📌 Strong earnings/growth → support for stocks\n📌 AI/tech → still carrying much of the market momentum\nSo the real question isn’t “Did the Fed hike?”\nIt’s “Has the market fully priced the next hike — or is another repricing coming?”\nI’m watching Treasury yields and QQQ closely from here. 👀\nWhat do you think — already priced in, or more volatility ahead?</body></html>","text":"The 25bp hike wasn’t the surprise. What comes next is. The Fed delivered the expected move to 3.75%–4.00%, but stocks barely reacted — QQQ +0.03%, SPY -0.44%. Why? The market wanted reassurance that this could be the last move. Instead, the message was: inflation is still too sticky, and another hike remains on the table. 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