#The Fed Hiked — So Why Didn’t Stocks Celebrate? 👀

D1ane
09-17 14:16

The 25bp Fed hike was expected.

The market knew it was coming.

Yet the reaction was surprisingly muted:

📉 $SPY -0.44%

📉 S&P 500 -0.45%

➡️ $QQQ +0.03%

🟢 Gold +1.10%

So maybe the headline rate decision wasn’t the real story.

The market is looking past today and toward what comes next.

If inflation remains persistent and policymakers still see another hike ahead, the question becomes whether today’s prices already reflect that tighter path.

At the same time, there’s another side to the equation:

💰 Earnings remain solid

📈 Growth expectations haven’t collapsed

🏦 Major banks remain constructive on the economic outlook

That creates a tug-of-war:

Higher-for-longer rates vs. resilient corporate earnings.

For me, the key signal isn’t today’s 25bp move.

It’s whether the market can keep absorbing a potentially tighter Fed without earnings expectations breaking down.

👀 If another hike is already priced in, what happens if the Fed actually pauses next?

Markets Rebound Day After Rate Hike — What's Driving the Rally?
Stocks took back Wednesday's Fed day and more: QQQ +1.73% to $716.92, SPY +1.13% to $762.60, the S&P 500 +1.14% to 7,637.76, against Wednesday's 0.45% decline. The lift came from outside the Fed. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell, which says the labor market is not cooling the way the rate path assumes, and oil kept sliding, easing inflation pressure. Yields fell and megacap tech led. The uncertainty everyone waited on is behind the market now. But the dot plot still points to one more hike this year, and only the hike already delivered is in the price. What is the market betting on?
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Comments

  • NancyZhang
    09-17 14:53
    NancyZhang
    That SPY vs QQQ split matters more than the 25bp itself. Feels like rate sensitivity is getting repriced under the surface, and tech holding up is the early tell
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