LanlanCC
09-17

Inflation has been above the 2% target for more than five years . This is not a "temporary loss of control after the supply shock", but a long-term credit attack and defense war.

Two Rounds of Treasury Buybacks, and Long-End Yields Still Hit a New High?
The Treasury bought 20- to 30-year debt again Wednesday, capped at $6B — second round in two weeks; the first filled only $5.2B. The bid came, yields didn't fall: the 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15bp and the highest since 2007, as was the 30-year. October Fed hike odds hit 69.7%. Stocks fell: Nasdaq -1.13% to 26,936.04, erasing Tuesday's record; QQQ -0.84% to $741.21; S&P 500 -0.75% to 7,706.03; Dow -0.68% to 51,511.59. Bulls say firm data, not weak demand, is lifting yields; bears say two buybacks and a new high prove the bid can't absorb supply. At what yield do you redo the math on stocks?
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Comments

  • LeilaLynch
    09-17
    LeilaLynch
    Five years in and core PCE has still been drifting lower. That sounds more like long-tail noise after the supply mess than some permanent inflation siege
  • JessieTheresa
    09-17
    JessieTheresa
    The credibility part is worse — five years of missed calls and the 2% story still gets sold like nothing changed. Market still buying that anchor?
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