#🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS RALLIED. WHAT IS THE MARKET SEEING?

The Fed just raised rates.

And the market basically said: “Okay… now what?” 👀

Thursday delivered a powerful rebound:

📈 Nasdaq-100 +1.73%

📈 S&P 500 +1.14%

📈 SPY +1.13%

📈 QQQ +1.73%

The S&P 500 recovered Wednesday’s Fed-day decline and closed at 7,637.76, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.69%. 

But the interesting part wasn’t the Fed.

🛢️ OIL FELL

Brent dropped to around $104.82, easing some of the inflation pressure that had been pushing yields higher. 

📉 YIELDS FELL

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped back below 5%, ending around 4.93% after briefly crossing 5% following Wednesday’s decision. 

👷 JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL

Initial claims dropped to 196,000, below expectations of roughly 207,000.

That creates an interesting combination:

Stronger labour data + lower oil + lower yields = a much easier environment for equities than Wednesday’s Fed reaction suggested. 

But there’s a catch.

The Fed’s projections still point toward one additional 25bp hike, and markets were pricing roughly a 53% probability of an October hike after Thursday’s move. 

So what exactly is the market betting on?

Not necessarily lower rates.

It may be betting that the economy can absorb higher rates without a major earnings shock — while falling oil and yields take some pressure off valuations.

That’s a very different thesis from a traditional “Fed pivot” rally.

👀 My question:

Is this the start of a genuine risk-on move, or simply a relief rally after Wednesday’s sell-off?