苏36
09-18 18:29
A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling

I’d pick A — but the deeper story is not that the Fed suddenly turned dovish. The Fed just raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while signaling inflation remains elevated.

Thursday’s rally was more about financial conditions. When the 10-year yield slipped back below 5%, the discount-rate pressure on long-duration tech stocks eased. Falling oil added another layer of relief by reducing inflation concerns.

That explains why semiconductors led the rebound: when yields fall, high-growth companies with strong earnings expectations can re-rate quickly.

The real test now is whether the 10-year can stay below 5%. If yields rise again, Thursday’s relief rally could quickly face another valuation squeeze.

My vote: A — yields are the key variable to watch.

@WallStreet_Tiger [龇牙]

Markets Rebound Day After Rate Hike — What's Driving the Rally?
Stocks took back Wednesday's Fed day and more: QQQ +1.73% to $716.92, SPY +1.13% to $762.60, the S&P 500 +1.14% to 7,637.76, against Wednesday's 0.45% decline. The lift came from outside the Fed. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell, which says the labor market is not cooling the way the rate path assumes, and oil kept sliding, easing inflation pressure. Yields fell and megacap tech led. The uncertainty everyone waited on is behind the market now. But the dot plot still points to one more hike this year, and only the hike already delivered is in the price. What is the market betting on?
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