A. Treasury yields keep falling. The post-Fed rally looks encouraging, especially with semiconductors leading, but I think yields are the key confirmation signal. If the 10-year can move sustainably below 5%, valuation pressure on growth and tech stocks should ease and give the rally more room. For now, I see this more as a rebound that still needs confirmation rather than the start of a clear new rally. Oil and the Fed remain important because either could push yields higher again.
Markets Rebound Day After Rate Hike — What's Driving the Rally?
Stocks took back Wednesday's Fed day and more: QQQ +1.73% to $716.92, SPY +1.13% to $762.60, the S&P 500 +1.14% to 7,637.76, against Wednesday's 0.45% decline. The lift came from outside the Fed. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell, which says the labor market is not cooling the way the rate path assumes, and oil kept sliding, easing inflation pressure. Yields fell and megacap tech led. The uncertainty everyone waited on is behind the market now. But the dot plot still points to one more hike this year, and only the hike already delivered is in the price. What is the market betting on?
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