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THROUGH MY ASIAN LENS — WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF
Week of 21 September 2026 · Compiled by Kimi (Moonshot AI) · Reviewed by Claude & Grok · Benson Kong writes the Muse
SGX Centre 1, Shenton Way, Singapore · Photo © Benson Kong
After the Fed’s First Hike in Three Years:
PMI Reality Check & Costco’s Consumer Test
Economic Calendar — Week of 21 September 2026
The hike is behind us. Markets now price the next one. This week gives us the first real data.
On Wednesday 16 September the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% — unanimous 12–0, the first hike in three years. Chair Warsh: “The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.” August CPI came in at 3.4% year-on-year; energy drove most of it, up 16.3% on the year.
Globally, the Bank of England held at 3.75% (6–3), the ECB had hiked on 10 September, and the Bank of Japan raised to 1.25% on Friday 18 September — the highest since April 1995. Three major central banks, one direction.
Teaching note — Why the calendar matters for business qualification: Central bank decisions change the cost of capital. When you qualify a business for your portfolio, the rate environment determines what multiple is reasonable to pay. A 45× earnings stock in a zero-rate world is a different proposition from a 45× stock in a 4% world. The calendar this week tells us how long 4% lasts.
Source: Investing.com Economic Calendar — screengrabbed 19 September 2026 (SGT).
APAC note: Friday 25 September is China’s Mid-Autumn Festival (holiday 25–27 Sep). Reduced Chinese participation typically softens Friday commodity flows — relevant with Brent near US$100 and gold near US$4,386–4,420 (Friday Comex close).
Earnings Calendar — Week of 21 September 2026
Source: Earnings Whispers — Most Anticipated Earnings Releases, week beginning 21 September 2026.
A full week of earnings. The featured name is Costco (COST), reporting Thursday 24 September after the close. It sits alongside Cracker Barrel, General Mills, AutoZone, Darden, BlackBerry and others — a wide spread of consumer, industrial and tech names that together sketch the health of the US economy under 4% money.
Costco — How to Qualify a Business (A Worked Example)
Q4 FY2026 · Thursday 24 Sep, after close · Earnings call 2:00 pm Pacific
We use Costco this week not to tell you whether to buy it, but to walk through how we think about qualifying a business for a portfolio. The method matters more than this particular stock.
COST vs S&P 500 — illustrative 12-month relative performance. Source: published price data / Yahoo Finance.
Step 1 — Are the profits real? Costco’s free cash flow doubled in four years (US$3.5bn FY2022 → US$8.8bn TTM). The earnings are cash-backed.
Revenue CAGR ~8.9% · FCF doubled in 4 years · Source: Costco IR / Yahoo Finance.
Step 2 — Is the balance sheet a source of resilience? Net cash ~US$12bn. Debt-to-equity 0.24×. The balance sheet is a strength, not a liability.
Step 3 — What is the market paying? 45× trailing earnings. Forward P/E ~41–42× (⚠️ source to confirm). S&P 500 trades at ~21×. When a 45× stock de-rates, even good results can leave the share price stationary.
Step 4 — What does this week’s result tell us about the consumer? Membership renewal rates and commentary on trade-down behaviour are the two data points worth listening for beyond the headline EPS.
APAC angle: Costco operates 37 locations in Japan, 20 in South Korea, and 15 in Australia (per 2 September company disclosure). Asian membership renewal rates have historically run at or above their global average. Their APAC business is not a footnote — it is evidence the model travels.
News from Last Week (14–19 September 2026)
A selection — not exhaustive. My thoughts follow in the Muse section.
Saudi Aramco cuts crude allocations to European refiners after Red Sea pipeline attack. Bloomberg, 18 Sep 2026.
Friday 19 September heat map — broad green. NVDA +1.72%, MU +4.98%, TSLA +3.24%. Buyers returned once the hike was priced in.
A week that gave us the Fed’s first hike in three years, Brent above US$100, a global tightening wave (ECB, BoE, BoJ all moved or signalled), Generac surging 30%+ on AI data-centre power contracts, and a consumer sentiment survey that plunged. That is a full week by any measure.
S&P 500 — Weekly Outlook
Weekly Posture: NEUTRAL — subject to this week’s PMI and earnings data
My primary read is MACD. The histogram was −14.88 last week; it has narrowed to −10.35. That narrowing is the most important signal — momentum is cooling but not collapsing. The histogram has to cross zero and hold before the posture changes.
CNN Fear & Greed — 4 data points, one year. Source: CNN Business (confirmed 18 Sep 2026, 7:59 PM ET).
CNN Fear & Greed screenshot — 29 (Fear). Prev. close: 28. One week ago: 32. One month ago: 54. One year ago: 66.
“Expensive stocks + 5% risk free + $100 oil + sticky inflation + AI bubble fears + leverage + election uncertainty. Buckle up cause it might get VERY bumpy.” — @TripleNetInvest, 14 Sep 2026, 68K views.
Above the 50-day, I give the uptrend the benefit of the doubt. A weekly close below 7,600 — and especially below the 200-day near 7,180 — changes the posture. Position sizing matters more than the direction call.
My Investing Muse (21 Sep 2026)
This section is mine. Over the past few days, I have been collaborating with several AI agents on this investing preview. The experience has been personally fascinating. While AI has clearly improved my productivity, it has also left me with a sense of emptiness: I gain speed, but I risk losing the discipline of earning every insight and keeping the numbers at my fingertips.
Using AI Without Outsourcing Thought
When it comes to artificial intelligence, the key is to use AI to empower our thinking — not to outsource it. The moment humans stop thinking for themselves, we risk being drawn into a form of herd mentality. Depending on the agent we spend the most time with, we may quietly hand over more control than we realise.
I have already seen this in everyday life, where friends and associates use AI to help them decide what to eat, where to go, or what recreational activities to pursue. This may look harmless on the surface, but it raises an important question: could an algorithm in the background be shaping how people behave, choose, and think?
AI Governance and the Need for Restraint
I also hope to launch a book in the fourth quarter of this year that explores a future shaped together with artificial intelligence. Some of the leading AI players have begun warning that development may need to slow down. The fact that they are saying this publicly suggests that they may have encountered serious limits — or even conceded a degree of control to these new models.
AI is like training a child genius without moral guidance, cultural understanding, or a value system. The race for speed could send us crashing into brick walls if we do not exercise caution. We still have a brake available to us, and I would call that brake “governance”.
Allowing AI systems to study documented human history — filled with deceit, betrayal, lies, manipulation, murder, corruption, and more — without proper guardrails is extremely dangerous, especially when these systems are motivated by goals. We need to review these risks seriously and, where known breaches have occurred, hold the relevant companies legally accountable.
@HedgieMarkets on X — “Every time something goes wrong, the company that built the model faces zero consequences and the person who relied on the output absorbs all of it.”
“Palantir CEO Alex Karp says ‘AI companies have to be nationalized.’ There it is... He just admitted this entire psyop is about government liability protection and taxpayer money to bail out their debt.” — X user Financelot
Geopolitical Risks to Supply Chains
The broader backdrop is becoming more complicated. We face the risk of losing reliable access to both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, especially as the Houthis have reportedly secured key towns and ports in recent days. These waterways are vital arteries of the global supply chain.
For European countries importing food from Asia, rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope could add another 10 to 14 days to the journey. That delay would be especially damaging for perishable goods.
“If he does ban oil exports, global oil prices will spike, resulting in a sell off of US Treasuries & higher interest rates. Pick your poison.” — X user Christopher David
Canada is in no military position to defend against the USA. The same appears true for Greenland, Cuba, and Iceland. Nations that once seemed peripheral are now in the frame — not for ideology, but for resource access and strategic position.All because of energy?
Diesel, Inflation, and Domestic Pressure
In America, the diesel crisis is first being felt in prices and may eventually be felt in supply. Record diesel prices will ultimately be passed on to consumers, while rising costs are already pushing some truck drivers to stop trucking altogether.
Supply chains are the bloodstream of the economy. With disrupted supply and limited refinery capacity, these pressures could soon become more widespread. My concern is that the impact will eventually hit citizens in the form of higher inflation.
Love’s truck stop, September 2026. Diesel #2 at US$7.04/gal cash. AAA national average: US$6.23–6.31/gal. The pump does not lie.
“Over $1,000 of fuel, and the tank isn’t even full!!! Remind me again how the U.S is winning the war, and Trump isn’t about to get rinsed in the midterms.”— Ian, via X user Mario Nawfal
Political and Weather-Related Risks
This environment may not be good news for Republicans heading into the midterms. With less than two months remaining, it is unclear whether they have enough time to turn the situation around. There is a possibility that Republicans may lose seats, and potentially control, in both the House and the Senate.
At the same time, year-end conditions may be shaped by El Niño developments. The western coast of America is experiencing severe beach erosion that is affecting properties and roads. After recent fires, reports of hailstorms and flooding in different parts of the country show how Mother Nature continues to disrupt lives and livelihoods.
AI IPOs, Market Valuation, and Uneven Growth
Given the security risks surrounding AI, it is notable that the two largest AI businesses appear to be on track for IPOs in the coming months. This does not send a reassuring message to investors: it suggests that these companies may be trying to sell their businesses before fully getting their houses in order.
“My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.” — Elon Musk
With bond yields at record levels, it is also striking to see equity markets still trading within these ranges. Many investors continue to point to signs of overvaluation.
Meanwhile, retrenchment news continues to surface even as GDP keeps moving forward. This raises an important question: is growth being supported by unequal or inefficient income distribution, where national wealth is concentrated among a minority and unevenly distributed across income brackets?
The late Charlie Munger warned that inflation can change a country’s political and economic system. That is something worth watching closely.
“Inflation is a very serious subject. You can argue it’s the way democracies die.” — The late Charlie Munger, February 2022 Daily Journal AGM. Source: CNBC / CFO Leadership.
USD share of global foreign currency reserves: ~63% (2002) → ~40% (2026). Institutions are quietly reducing dollar exposure. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence.
Private credit default rate: 6.3% in the 12 months through August. Source: CNBC, September 2026.
P+P Engineering Consultants — one of many. Retrenchment news continues to surface even as GDP moves forward.
Tech sector — more announcements to come.
US$12.73bn of industrial CMBS loans with anchor leases expiring before maturity. Source: TreppTalk, 15 Sep 2026.
Final Positioning
I remain cautious given the rising number of seismic and volcanic activities. It is always better to be prepared. El Niño should also be a consideration for the Southern Hemisphere as we plan year-end travel. Let us continue to do our due diligence, stay alert to the risks, and consider appropriate hedging.
Closing Principles
Spend within our means. Invest only what we can afford to lose. Avoid leverage — especially with rates rising and volatility returning. Keep a watchlist, buy quality at sensible prices, diversify across sectors and geographies, and let position sizing — not conviction — carry the risk. Review, rebalance, and never let a single week’s headlines rewrite a long-term plan.
Wishing everyone a productive week ahead.
A MOMENT TO PAUSE
A week of firsts — first hike, first real data post-hike arriving, and perhaps the first collective realisation that the cost of money has changed in ways that compound quietly. The Fed moved. Oil stayed high. A consumer noticed. Markets bounced, then hesitated.More questions were raised than answered. That is probably the honest outcome. We watch the PMIs on Wednesday and Costco on Thursday not to be told what to do, but to understand what the world is saying. The answer, as always, comes later.
Pukka Verified — AI Cross-Validation
Primary research & compilation: Kimi (Moonshot AI)
Fact validation (Rounds 1 & 2): Grok (xAI)
Editorial review & DOCX build: Claude (Anthropic)
My Investing Muse: Benson Kong — unedited, as written
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for information and education only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are compiled from third-party sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate.
© 2026 Pukka Solutions · Singapore · Through My Asian Lens · Hero photo: SGX Centre 1 © Benson Kong
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