Shyon
09-21
For me, this looks more like a relief rally than a signal that the Fed no longer matters. Easing Treasury yields and lower oil prices gave growth and semiconductor stocks room to recover, which helped names like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Micron Technology(MU)$ bounce strongly.

I am still watching the 10-year yield closely. If yields remain high, valuation pressure could return, especially for growth stocks. Strong economic data also has a double edge: it supports earnings but may give the Fed more reason to keep rates higher for longer.

For my portfolio, I am not chasing one strong session. I remain bullish on AI and semiconductors long term, but prefer gradual accumulation during pullbacks. Patience and consistency matter more to me than predicting every Fed-driven move.

@Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars @WallStreet_Tiger

Two Rounds of Treasury Buybacks, and Long-End Yields Still Hit a New High?
The Treasury bought 20- to 30-year debt again Wednesday, capped at $6B — second round in two weeks; the first filled only $5.2B. The bid came, yields didn't fall: the 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15bp and the highest since 2007, as was the 30-year. October Fed hike odds hit 69.7%. Stocks fell: Nasdaq -1.13% to 26,936.04, erasing Tuesday's record; QQQ -0.84% to $741.21; S&P 500 -0.75% to 7,706.03; Dow -0.68% to 51,511.59. Bulls say firm data, not weak demand, is lifting yields; bears say two buybacks and a new high prove the bid can't absorb supply. At what yield do you redo the math on stocks?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • BillyWilliams
    09-22 20:42
    BillyWilliams
    10-year matters, but dot plot repricing can hit semi multiples even faster. For AI names, rate path matters more than one relief bounce
    • Shyon: 
      Thanks for sharing your insights here
Leave a comment
2
2