I am leaning toward the view that AI has strengthened the memory cycle, but it has not eliminated the cycle completely. HBM and server DRAM demand are structurally stronger because AI servers are consuming much more memory, so I think this upcycle can last longer than a traditional cycle.
At the same time, I understand Burry’s argument. Strong pricing will attract more capacity, and if supply catches up with AI demand, memory margins can compress quickly. For me, the key risk is the timing of the supply response, especially from new capacity and improving technology.
I am still constructive on $Micron Technology(MU)$ for the mid to long term, but I prefer watching pricing, inventory and supply data rather than simply following the bullish narrative. If DRAM pricing stays firm and inventories remain healthy, I am comfortable holding. If pricing rolls over while supply accelerates, I will become more cautious.
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