Sit Back and Give the Markets Time: The Pain Trade Remains Higher

MMMTWealth
10-14

By far the best thing you can do now as an investor is sit back and give the markets time.

So far $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ has seen no structural break so there's no reason to shift more defensive yet. You just need patience.

You've got optics plays at inflection point. As a reminder:

-> $Lumentum(LITE)$ sold out to 2029.

-> $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$set to ~12x revenue in 2 years.

-> $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ is set to 10x revenue by 2031.

You've also got all leaders like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ etc just showing incredible forecasted demand. We now have players like $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ even forecasting ~10x in revenue through to 2031. That's the confidence they have.

The easy arguments and lazy takes to make now are bubbles / yields / financing etc. It's legitimate arguments but you have to ask yourself why.

-> Yields at this rate are ok if growth is very high which it is.

-> Financing is fair but likely doesn't change the outlook for the next 3-4 years. It also certainly won't effect demand for small percentages of the cluster (like optics for example).

The pain trade remains higher.

Macro Trend
Monetary policy, various types of price indices... Here is everything about the macro economy!
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