swq23_興旺發
10-25

Oil breaking $100 is adding pressure to tech already weak on AI capex fears. This rotation to defensives makes sense short term, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco and Eli Lilly all showing safe haven bid. I think Berkshire Hathaway with $360B cash and buybacks is best positioned if selloff continues, but defensives look extended now. I see this as one day flight to safety unless oil holds above $100, then AI valuations need to reset further before rebound.

Fed Decides Early Thursday: Can the Tech Rally Hold?
QQQ gained 1.27% and SPY 0.56% Tuesday ahead of the Fed decision, with rates expected to hold at 3.75%–4.00%. Gains favored high-beta chips and custom compute: AMD jumped 5.45%, Broadcom 4.00%, while Nvidia rose 0.90%. Bulls cite strong earnings and AI orders; bears warn a hawkish December signal could lift yields and pressure rich valuations. After the decision, which offers both earnings and rate support: QQQ, SPY, or chip leaders?
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