The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r

The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve

On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex

Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t

This week's price action in U.S. equities is critical for the market trend over the next several weeks — above all the FOMC decision due early Thursday Beijing time. The U.S. indices have arrived at a very important support level, and once a key variable pushes them into choosing a direction, the broader medium-term trend could change. The current calm may therefore be brewing sharp volatility in the back half of the week. First, the latest developments on the technical side As you can see, the Nasdaq has now reached a very critical level. On the head-and-shoulders top pattern, the formation can already be treated as a breakdown of the head structure; by conventional technical projection, the subsequent downside would theoretically be roughly equal to the distance from the head to the curr

Last week U.S. equities posted a weekly decline: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.54% for the week, but sector performance diverged sharply. Energy rose 4.72%, leading the entire market; Real Estate, Consumer and Financials also gained; Technology plunged more than 5%, becoming the main drag on the index. Capital is rotating out of high-valuation sectors into Energy, Real Estate and defensive sectors in search of internal rebalancing — and the sectors that had been leading are starting to loosen. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$

Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in

Right after the latest CPI print, a market that looks calm on the surface may in fact be quietly brewing a turning point—and an opportunity. In this piece, Owen wants to talk about the topic that is probably on everyone's mind: has the moment to go long gold finally come? Let's lead with our core conclusion: gold is very likely to see a sizable rebound. The reason is that, with CPI unexpectedly cooling, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes have already faded. The 2-year Treasury yield has broken below its uptrend, dragging the US Dollar Index into a bearish technical structure. Once the Dollar Index breaks its key level, a gold rebound could well be triggered. But this is only a “rebound,” not a “reversal”—to lock in this move steadily, we still have to strictly follow the discipli

The start of each month is usually the key window for the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, so at the beginning of every month many people tend to see sizable swings in their investment accounts. This is because the NFP data often reshapes the market's expectations for the future economy, which in turn changes the price direction of related financial products. Last week's NFP data came in contrary to market expectations: the market had originally anticipated a figure of more than 100,000 new jobs, but the actual result was an increase of only 57,000. A slowdown in job gains indicates that the economy is not as “hot” as expected, which reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. As a result, since the data was released, the market has sharply lower

A quiet shift is taking place at the very top of the global aluminum supply chain. Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, plans to announce new export control measures in June. The goal is not to stop exports, but to manage volumes and push prices back to what the government sees as a more reasonable level. Bauxite sits at the starting point of the aluminum chain. It is processed into alumina, which is then used to produce primary aluminum. If bauxite starts to be repriced, the impact will not stop at the mine gate. Alumina, primary aluminum and downstream aluminum products will all have to recalculate their costs. Why Guinea Is Acting Guinea is not short of bauxite. The issue is that it may have been selling too much, too cheaply. In 2025, Guinea’s bauxite exports rose 25% to about

What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling." CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun

I. CFTC Positioning Data: Understanding the “Language of Smart Money” Many people focus only on prices, but what truly drives prices is where the money is positioned. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) translates this “language of money” into indicators that ordinary investors can understand. The “soul” of this report lies in two dimensions: who is holding positions, and whether they are long or short. CFTC positioning data classifies participants into three major categories: commercial positions (hedgers), non-commercial positions (speculators/funds), and non-reportable positions (retail traders). Among these, the most critical are non-commercial positions—funds, hedge funds, and large institutions whose objective is pr

Today, gold dropped all the way from $4,500 per ounce to $4,102, with a maximum decline of as much as 8.8%. Market sentiment has fallen into extreme pessimism. Considering the previous three trading days, when gold declined by 3.75%, 3.53%, and 3.26% respectively, today’s sharp drop is even more alarming. After consecutive declines, gold has completely erased its 30% gain for the year. At this moment of panic, I chose to buy the dip. I bought some $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ at $78. Next, let’s talk about the logic behind my decision. First, it is necessary to understand the reasons behind this sharp decline in gold. According to traditional thinking, gold is a safe-haven asset, and regional conflicts should benefit gold prices. On the first trading

Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh