$SpaceX(SPCX)$ is heading into its first major earnings event as a public company, and the market seems to have already picked a side. The trade looks obvious: Earnings arrive. Lockup expires. Early investors sell. Stock falls. That is exactly why the setup is interesting. Because when everyone is positioned for the same outcome, the biggest risk is often that the expected event has already been priced in. The stock has already absorbed a lot of fear $SPCX recently touched around $113, roughly 50% below its peak and below the original $135 IPO price. The first major unlock, representing around 20% of the float, is expected around the earnings period. Naturally, investors are focused on the potential selling pressure. Short interest has built as tr