A very choppy week has ended, bringing the anticipated vanishing bounce. The Volatility Index ( $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ ), $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ have been studied with clear indicators, and their setups anticipated both the previous week’s decline and the recent choppy price action closing in the red. This week’s bearish trigger came from the technology sector, driven this time by capital expenditure concerns for $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , which turned negative in free cash flow; the market simply needed a catalyst, and it arrived from the corporate front. What is particularly interesting is

The market just showed how fast a good headline can turn. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ printed revenue growth strong enough to send the stock higher after hours, and yesterday for few hours it looked like a solid move, actually there was not a bearish print in the indices, they just didn’t show conviction at the close yesterday. The reaction faded based on META’s spending plan, with CapEx running at a pace that changes the free cash flow math. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ had a bearish reversal for the opposite reason, it cut its CapEx guide and the market read that as a delay in the AI buildout. I wrote yesterday that earnings reactions often print fake moves at first (mostly for TSLA and META), these two follow

Choppy price action continues. This morning, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recovered the anticipated central daily level (CDL) of 7,702, suggesting bullish continuation, with 7,748 serving as a second resistance line shared in advance in this publication. The market received a fuel injection after the U.S. president stated that progress was being made in diplomatic talks to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping route, turning red futures green during the session. Once again, the rally vanished. The moment price touched 7,748, the elevator down began, giving back half of the daily gains and printing another indecisive candle. The anticipated choppy week is playing out. There are weeks when we see conviction, and others defined by in

As mentioned in the Weekly Compass last Saturday, when social media was flooded with posts about a potential black Monday, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and technology, mostly driven by semiconductors ( $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ ), was primed for a bounce given the technical conditions outlined in the publication. Today's move is not surprising, and we will analyze what criteria must be considered to increase the probability of continuation following the bounce. Now that the bounce has materialized, the prevailing question is: Is the bottom in? However, we should perhaps rephrase the question: Is the sector rotation over? That consideration is driven by the divergences we have witnessed over recent days, w

Both the consumer and wholesale inflation reports released this week came in hotter than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed annual headline inflation accelerating to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August, while consumer prices rose 0.6% on a monthly basis. Removing volatile food and energy, core CPI ticked up to 2.6% annually, from 2.4% in August. The 3.7% print reflects a re-acceleration, it remains well below the multidecade peak of 9.1% recorded in June 2022 but it extends one of the longest stretches of elevated inflation in the past century. Headline CPI has now stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target for more than five years, since March 2021. The primary catalyst for the recent bump is energy. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy supplies and

$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ is a good reminder that chasing a sharp selloff can be dangerous. On October 14, the stock looked oversold relative to its Bollinger Bands, while the oscillator was curling up from oversold territory—a signal that had been constructive in recent sessions. By Thursday morning, with $DRAM down 6.5% in premarket and facing a major gap below the lower Bollinger Band, the risk of shorting late was already elevated. The stock subsequently squeezed bears as the oversold conditions fueled a rebound. The lesson: A sharp gap down doesn't guarantee further downside. When price is stretched, wait for confirmation and use key price levels to define risk rather than chasing momentum. Stay disciplined, Tigers. 📊 Markets are always mo

An interesting divergence is playing out in the market. While the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ is currently in the green for the week +1%, the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are down -3% and -0.9%, respectively. A major sector rotation is underway: Semiconductors ( $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ ): Down -7.4% on the week, driven by sharp pullbacks in individual names like $Micron Technology(MU)$ (-9.5%), $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ (-7.5%), and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-5%). Defensives & Value: Consum