Mark_Zenith
Mark_Zenith
navigating markets with the precision of a seasoned国企 pro
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avatarMark_Zenith
10-30 06:49
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ Honestly can't wait for earnings next Tuesday. The craziest part is $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  is also reporting after hours, and we're likely to have more revenue with very similar net incomes. One has a market cap of $925 Billion and the other $23 Billion. I'm buying all I can while I can.
avatarMark_Zenith
10-29 04:54
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ The AI narratives keep repeating themselves. Capex worries are back once again after chips ran up. Retail will likely panic sell, and big money will soak it all up like they usually do. A pullback would actually suit me for getting back in.
avatarMark_Zenith
10-28 19:08
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ HK delivered strong numbers. Hyperscalers are up next for earnings. This stock still sitting under 500 honestly surprises me. Listening to Jensen, he genuinely sees TSMC as the one partner for his company. In Germany, he basically said TSMC is the only one he trusts to get the chips they need. Not sure what further endorsement this company needs to get into the 500s.
$Intel(INTC)$ I think the only real move here is to compete with TSM. That means raising more capital through an equity raise and bringing in chip talent from Taiwan before the window closes.
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  NOV20 545C, still actionable. Zone: $527.56 to $535.00 Invalidation: close under $514.01 Objectives: $556.79, then $568.62 The math works out to a 4.8% move to the first objective and 7.0% to the second, against 3.3% risk on the invalidation, which is better than 2 to 1 to the second target. The stock spent two weeks sliding from above $650 and then climbed back today, gaining nearly 3% to close near $531. The bounce matters because buyers held the line near $514 today after it had already found its feet near $502 last week. The November 3 report after the close gives them a fresh reason to keep pushing toward $556.79 first and then $568.62, while a close under $514.01 says the boun
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ ORCL has been painful to hold, same feeling I had with AMD last year back when we were calling it Advanced Money Destroyer. Just being patient here. I think $300 is coming next year.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Speculators tend to end up making a lot less than long-term investors. Holding this for the next four years could at least double your money, if not triple it.
Chinese giants ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent just placed orders for more than $35 billion worth of Nvidia's new RTX PRO 5500 cards. Demand from China is still strong enough that Nvidia is telling partners it can't guarantee it can fill all the orders. Even with the AI trade getting questioned, the actual chip orders keep coming in size. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Musk and Jensen are going to make bulls a lot more money. With these two geniuses working so closely together, holding for the future feels pretty easy.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Foreign investors have been dumping TSMC ordinary shares in volume for 10 straight days, trying to push the stock price down without any sound reason. Some ETFs face limits on how much they can hold due to the higher share price, but that doesn't really count as a valid explanation. Their total holding has dropped to 17,806.505m shares, or 68.7% of TSMC's outstanding shares. Meanwhile, domestic investment trusts have been defending TSMC for 15 straight days. I haven't seen this kind of aggressive selling combined with domestic support in decades. Taiwan's government has done a good job allowing domestic funds to increase their holdings in a single stock, and it does help TSMC a lot.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Buy the dips, hold to 500+. Shorts are giving us cheap shares.
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ NOV20 560C, still actionable. Zone: $536 to $544 Invalidation: close under $526 Objectives: $570, then $605 The math: up 5.6% to the first objective and 12.0% to the second, against 2.6% risk on the invalidation, better than 4 to 1 to the second. Think of this swing setup like a good house on a street that suddenly went quiet. AMD ran to 658 in early October and then pulled back hard, but on Friday it stopped at 526 and it is holding above that low near its 50 day average around 537, which tells you sellers tried and could not push it through. This is a swing into the November 3 earnings report, where the guidance will matter more than the numbers themselves because it tells you whether the AI demand story is stil
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Morgan Stanley cut its AMD GPU demand estimate by 41%. Meanwhile, AMD CEO Lisa Su reached a deal with Samsung to help increase chip supply, particularly for AI data centers. There are two separate parts here: the companies agreed to expand their memory-chip partnership, while a possible deal for Samsung to manufacture AMD processors is still being explored. Between the two, Lisa Su took AMD from $2 to $658 a share, so that side carries a lot more weight for me.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  TSMC just printed the kind of quarter that should end the "AI demand is peaking" debate, at least for the foundry layer. Revenue rose about 51% year over year and net income nearly 69%. Q4 is guided to 52.3 to 54.3 billion dollars at a 65% to 67% gross margin, capex stays at 60 to 64 billion, and management called AI demand extremely robust with a steep 2nm ramp ahead. ASML backed that up a day earlier with record Q3 sales and customers already asking about 2029 and 2030 capacity. Still, the stock and the rest of the chip group slipped on Thursday after reports of slower growth at a large private AI lab. My read: one private growth print does not cancel multi-year foundr
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC is fundamentally fine. The market just seems off lately, and hopefully it isn't coming down with something. We had the DeepSick selloff that pushed most stocks into bear territory, and now there's this hyped CXMT threat. Both narratives came from China, and the Street looks to be using them to pressure stocks right before earnings from a number of key companies. Give it another day and enjoy the weekend.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  Bought 220c 11/20 contracts here. Risk management in place. Discipline over emotions. NFA.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I'm sure Nvidia's buyback window is open, and Jensen is happy to buy what some are selling. That's fine, he will sell it back higher later. $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$  $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$  $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ 
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ Semis earnings are starting this week with $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$  and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , and the broader earning season is just getting underway. There's a 140 to 150+ leg up forming.

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