This FUDDY thread is full of meaningless, uncontrollable rabbit holes. No point getting dragged into that. $SK hynix(SKHY)$ looks like it is about to fly. $Netlist, Inc.(NLST)$ looks like it is about to soar. If you knew what is about to happen, you would be buying with every cent. Just my opinion, but this feels like a generational setup.
$Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises(BW)$ Just the right amount of short interest combined with buying pressure and insane growth. With that kind of growth, it feels more likely than not that they could go on a run similar to AAOI.
Price targets are getting interesting. Rosenblatt has it at $320. Cantor Fitzgerald sees AI bit demand staying strong into 2029, while UBS is pointing to agentic AI as another potential demand driver. That's the part I'm watching. If AI infrastructure demand keeps expanding beyond today's hyperscaler buildout, the memory story could have a much longer runway than the market expects. $SK hynix(SKHY)$ is one I'm keeping firmly on the radar.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ The next tranche comes around late August, about 300 million shares, which should also get absorbed. That's only around 3.9%. The real test likely comes in the October to November window, with the Q3 earnings report and 2 billion shares unlocking.
Space stocks got crushed, but the underlying business didn't. The selloff feels more like capital rotation than a broken space thesis. Contracts are still being signed, demand is still building, and the next earnings wave could expose the disconnect between price action and fundamentals. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ pulled capital toward itself and pressured the rest of the sector. $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ launched three massive comm arrays, with 60 carriers and 3 billion subscribers tied to the story. $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ booked $663M from Space Force in just 9 days. $Planet Labs Pbc(PL)$ now has a
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ Unlock vs Dilution — I get that most people barely learn this stuff in school. It still surprises me how many traders confuse a stock unlock with dilution. An unlock just lets insiders trade shares they already own. Dilution is when the company actually creates new shares. One adds liquidity, the other expands supply. SpaceX unlocked shares — it didn't dilute. Retail keeps panicking over mechanics they don't even understand.
Current TTM PE is around 22x. I gave Kimi a screenshot of TradingView's EPS and the next four quarters of estimates, then had her work out what the next four quarters of TTM would look like assuming a 19% beat on current estimates. After that, I had her calculate the price using a 22x PE and the estimated earnings date. I'm also assuming there will be a Santa rally and that 2026 will end with $Micron Technology(MU)$ around $3000. I think $SK hynix(SKHY)$ carries less risk and more upside, but it's weighed down by South Korean markets that are anti retail investor.
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ This looks like it could keep going until the next major semi company reports — NVDA, SNDK, MU, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, and the like. At that point, a possible approach is trading SOXL, selling into strength, and buying the dip on this. The impact from China's recent developments on US markets is hard to overstate. I suspect Korean markets already got a taste of this drop through insider flows when their memory stocks tanked.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ $SK hynix(SKHY)$ It looks like Korean market officials are now directing funds and pensions to rebalance their holdings by the minute as prices drop, effectively buying to maintain weight in an index or ETF. That seems to have stopped the bleeding, and it makes shorting more expensive and riskier. This approach also helps keep funds in some kind of price equilibrium since their value won't necessarily fall in lockstep with the underlying stocks, and it brings the forced selling from margined-out traders under better control. I suspect these rules will stay in place until traders stop targeting the downside of the market and stocks. The president is pretty upset over there,
$Intel(INTC)$ For true long-term investors in Intel, this is a company with the potential to become the most valuable on the planet — higher than $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , higher than $Apple(AAPL)$ and SPCX. The last earnings report again shows Intel transforming into a cash flow and profitability monster. On top of that, if the situation with Taiwan heats up next year, Intel could be the only place to put money in the market. I'm holding on to my shares.
$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ So far the SOXS trade is playing out well. A close under $532 at key support would be ideal, and under $533.19 would also help since it would wipe out the bullish FVG that developed this week. INTC dropping under 100 and trading red is another encouraging signal.
$Tradr 2X Long SNDK Daily ETF(SNXX)$ I got tired of losing or sitting in stagnant positions just for the sake of diversification. I even sold my 800 shares of NVDA at 210 after a gain of 200k. At this point, I've concentrated my accounts — IRAs, Roths, and joint accounts — into MU with an average share price of 587, totaling around $860,000, which I'm using as my base position. On top of that, I trade 3,000 shares of SNXX and 7,000 shares of MUU around the highs and lows.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ Micron is showing some strength here. Super Micro Computer had a solid earnings beat. The demand for memory seems to be holding up. I think there's a chance SK hynix could reach $200 per share this month.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ Cathie Wood's ARK Invest holds a major position in SpaceX through SPCX, which makes her one of the biggest public market investors in Elon Musk's company. I tend to follow the lead of those who know more about this than I do. It's their largest holding.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ I buy calls on red days, and then they tend to go green on the subsequent green days. I don't know why this buy low, sell high approach works, but I'll keep doing it.