5207418 Ansome personal page - To The Moon

5207418 Ansome

5207418 Ansome

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07-13

$海康威视(002415)$ goid

06-24

$甘李药业(603087)$

05-11

$甘李药业(603087)$

04-25

$甘李药业(603087)$

04-02

04-02

03-21

$甘李药业(603087)$

03-21

$甘李药业(603087)$ long term investment

03-21

$海康威视(002415)$ good stock

03-21

$海康威视(002415)$ good

02-26

$甘李药业(603087)$ good

02-17

$甘李药业(603087)$ good

02-17

$海康威视(002415)$

2024-07-10

$上证50ETF(510050)$

2023-12-29

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Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index opens 0.13% higher, Tech Index opens 0.38% higher! Technology and auto stocks continued their upward trend

2023-04-19

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2023-04-18

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2023-04-17

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2023-04-16

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2023-04-15

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</a>&nbsp;","text":"$海康威视(002415)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d8c48f7190c899602d320a3f3ff4d0f","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/533465672655752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325893944152336,"gmtCreate":1720588141517,"gmtModify":1720588469096,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/510050\">$上证50ETF(510050)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/510050\">$上证50ETF(510050)$ 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Technology and auto stocks continued their upward trend","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193609126","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月29日，港股开盘，恒指开涨0.13%，科指开涨0.38%。科技、汽车股延续涨势，美团涨2%领涨蓝筹，蔚来、小鹏汽车涨超2%。优必选上市首日低开0.11%，每股定价90港元，公开发售获5.16倍认购。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On December 29, the Hang Seng Index opened up 22.99 points, or 0.13%, at 17,066.52. The Hang Seng Tech Index opened 14.12 points higher, or 0.38%, at 3778.02. The state-owned enterprises index opened 15.68 points higher, or 0.27%, at 5780.45. The red-chip index opened down 1.03 points, or 0.03%, at 3325.84.</p><p>Technology and auto stocks continued their upward trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Blue-chip stocks rose 2%, leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Rising nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Automobile - W</a>It rose by more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09880\">UBTECH</a>On its first day of trading, open low was 0.11%, priced at HK$90 per share, and the public offering was oversubscribed 5.16 times.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index opens 0.13% higher, Tech Index opens 0.38% higher! Technology and auto stocks continued their upward trend</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index opens 0.13% higher, Tech Index opens 0.38% higher! Technology and auto stocks continued their upward trend\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-12-29 09:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On December 29, the Hang Seng Index opened up 22.99 points, or 0.13%, at 17,066.52. The Hang Seng Tech Index opened 14.12 points higher, or 0.38%, at 3778.02. The state-owned enterprises index opened 15.68 points higher, or 0.27%, at 5780.45. The red-chip index opened down 1.03 points, or 0.03%, at 3325.84.</p><p>Technology and auto stocks continued their upward trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Blue-chip stocks rose 2%, leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Rising nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Automobile - W</a>It rose by more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09880\">UBTECH</a>On its first day of trading, open low was 0.11%, priced at HK$90 per share, and the public offering was oversubscribed 5.16 times.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193609126","content_text":"12月29日，恒生指数开盘上涨22.99点，涨幅0.13%，报17066.52点；恒生科技指数开盘上涨14.12点，涨幅0.38%，报3778.02点；国企指数开盘上涨15.68点，涨幅0.27%，报5780.45点；红筹指数开盘下跌1.03点，跌幅0.03%，报3325.84点。科技、汽车股延续涨势，美团-W涨2%领涨蓝筹，哔哩哔哩-W涨近3%，蔚来-SW、小鹏汽车-W涨超2%。优必选上市首日低开0.11%，每股定价90港元，公开发售获5.16倍认购。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.6,"HSI":1,"MHImain":1,"MCHmain":0.6,"HHImain":0.6,"02833":0.6,"HSImain":1,"HSTECH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944514737,"gmtCreate":1681914074629,"gmtModify":1681914078960,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 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it","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81e7b76341d12ad7bd6fed933dc18cf4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089735027","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011985015,"gmtCreate":1648803862790,"gmtModify":1676534401323,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>buy","text":"$Asensus 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the main feature of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games.</b>On the evening of February 4, the opening ceremony of the XXIV Winter Olympic Games was held at the National Stadium. As a result, Beijing will also become the only city in the world to have hosted both the Summer Olympics and the Winter Olympics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2642a40bccd5e127fa718128d6d254bd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that, unlike the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics are naturally affected by environmental, climate and other factors. At the same time, this Winter Olympics is the first Winter Olympics held under the background of continental monsoon climate in nearly 20 years. In addition, the current global COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading, and the overall difficulty of hosting can be imagined.</p><p>For example, the team from Tsinghua University, with the support of multiple data and machine learning, combined with bioinformatics and other disciplines, designed a set of epidemic monitoring and early warning system that can be used for closed-loop management of the Winter Olympics. Assuming that there is a sudden epidemic during the game, high-risk groups, susceptible areas, susceptible behaviors and weaknesses in epidemic prevention and control can be screened out in time and accurately, and a technical barrier for epidemic prevention can be built for the Winter Olympics with science and technology.</p><p>Earlier, the director of the Expert Committee of Science and Technology Winter Olympics said in an exclusive interview with Phoenix Satellite TV: \"After the emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic, safety issues have been placed in a very prominent position in the process of preparing for the Winter Olympics. The research results of scientific researchers can not only be applied to this Winter Olympics, but also be valuable experience for social epidemic prevention and control and other large-scale international activities.\"</p><p>Such things are just the tip of the iceberg in the preparations for the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to the data published in the Guide for the Declaration of Key Special Orientation Projects of the Science and Technology Winter Olympics, in order to support the successful completion and landing of the Science and Technology Winter Olympics project, the total estimated budget of the state allocated funds in 2018-2021 is about 1.49 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the data of Beijing Science and Technology Commission, more than 200 technologies have been tested and used in the Winter Olympics scenario, involving information engineering and software engineering, public safety, high-definition video, 5G and new energy.</p><p>It is precisely because of this that \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games, and even some industry comments say that this year's Beijing Winter Olympics will become a world-class science and technology exhibition.</p><p>Take the torch \"Flying\" of this Winter Olympics as an example. It is reported that the torch was designed by Li Jianye, the chief industrial designer of Alibaba. He said that the torch shell pioneered the lightweight and high-temperature resistant \"carbon fiber\" material, which is not only fire-resistant and high-temperature resistant, but also resistant to Grade 10 strong winds and rainstorms. At the same time, the torch also uses environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel, which makes the carbon emission of the torch \"zero\" when it burns, and its characteristics also ensure that the torch can be used in extremely cold weather.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital RMB, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robots and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious, which may bring a trillion-level investment opportunity.</p><p><b>Infrastructure painted by technology</b></p><p>When it comes to competitions, the first thing many people pay attention to is the venue. From the well-known Bird's Nest and Water Cube to the ice ribbon and snow dragon that came into the public eye in this Winter Olympics, each unique design embodies ingenuity and wisdom.</p><p>Different from the past, in order to better welcome this Winter Olympics, each competition venue has carried out some \"technology\" packaging. For example, as the only newly-built ice venue in Beijing's competition area, National Speed Skating Oval \"Ice Ribbon\" adopts the single-layer two-way orthogonal saddle-shaped cable net roof with the largest span in the world, and the steel consumption is only 1/4 of that of traditional roof.</p><p>Similarly, the National Snowmobile Sled Center, known as \"Snow Dragon\", adopts \"millimeter-level\" hyperboloid concrete spraying and finishing molding technology, and the 1.9-kilometer track is sprayed and molded at one time. With the blessing of technology, Water Cube realized the site conversion from water to ice within 20 days. With the help of the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence technology, the Bird's Nest has turned into a digital, low-carbon and intelligent sports venue.</p><p>Of course, the above is only a small part of the competition venues of many scientific and technological fans of the Winter Olympics, but this is enough to see that this Winter Olympics has started the scientific and technological layout from the most basic facilities.</p><p>Besides the venues, the most inseparable thing for the Winter Olympics is ice and snow. As we mentioned at the beginning, Beijing belongs to the continental monsoon climate zone. Therefore, there are two \"black technologies\" in this Winter Olympics-artificial snow and \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>It is understood that this Winter Olympics will be the first ever to use 100% artificial snow. The characteristic of artificial snow is that the ice content is high, which is 20% higher than that of natural snow. Such characteristics also bring positive and negative effects. On the one hand, artificial snow may increase the possibility of athletes' injuries. On the other hand, artificial snow can overcome the differences in snow field characteristics and make competition fairer.</p><p>Not only that, the \"Ice Ribbon\" venue also creatively adopts carbon dioxide transcritical direct cooling ice making technology, which ensures constant ice surface temperature and better ice surface quality, thus becoming the \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>If the venues and ice and snow environment are still artificially controllable factors, then the climate change in the Winter Olympics is a change factor that can't be ignored. The reason behind this is that 70% of the events in the Winter Olympics are snow events, and most of them are held in mountainous areas with complex terrain.</p><p>Therefore, meteorological support has become the top priority of ice and snow sports. So far, the meteorological support project has achieved certain scientific and technological innovation achievements, especially the \"100-meter-level and minute-level\" forecast for the first time. As we all know, even if we are in the plain area, it is impossible for the current weather software to achieve \"100 meters and minutes\", but in the mountains, it is even more arduous to face the technical challenge to this extent.</p><p>In general event venues, a large number of physical fence protection or a large number of manpower will be used for security work. However, the Winter Olympics are mostly in the deep mountains with complex terrain, with harsh climate and environmental conditions, and the temperature difference between day and night is as high as tens of degrees. Therefore, the application of intelligent sentinel robot was born.</p><p>By deploying intelligent sentinel robots in the Zhangjiakou competition area of this Winter Olympics, it can automatically and accurately judge the category of intruders in daily monitoring, and upload the monitored situation or the whereabouts of intruders to the command center in the background, effectively improving the efficiency of security staff and ensuring the safety of the Winter Olympics. Its lowest low temperature tolerance is also over-forty degrees.</p><p>In Wukesong Sports Center, an ice hockey stadium in Beijing, there are also service robots officially on duty. It is understood that 12 security service robots provide contactless ticket checking for audiences to enter the venue, and can complete eight processes such as identity verification, intelligent temperature measurement, health code inquiry and vaccination inquiry within 1 second. On the periphery of the venue, four intelligent service robots provide information guidance, interactive Q&A, and explain the whole process of Winter Olympics.</p><p>In addition, China has developed and put into use the first 5G +8K broadcast car in China, which will provide the public with high-quality off-site viewing services. In this way, the upcoming 8K channel will give viewers the opportunity to see 8K games on TV during the game, and also the opportunity to see ultra-high-definition pictures through 8K terminals in Winter Olympics venues, city squares and other places.</p><p><b>Smart Life Everywhere</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the core of sports competition is still people. How to help athletes get better play in training, life and competition with the help of scientific and technological means is fundamental.</p><p>Take the curling sport, in which the Chinese team won two consecutive victories two days before the start of the competition, as an example. In 2019, the research and development of curling robots began. This project is a national key special project of the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" of the Ministry of Science and Technology. Curling robots make up for the shortage of curling tactical analysis methods and assist athletes in training by using advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, image recognition and automatic control.</p><p>In terms of food, the Beijing Winter Olympics used self-developed ultra-micro trusted chips, combined with the non-tamperable and traceable characteristics of blockchain, to build a food safety guarantee platform for the Winter Olympics, which provided strong support for the catering service of the Winter Olympics.</p><p>It is undeniable that before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robot applications have been accompanied by smart restaurants out of the circle and swiped screens on major social media platforms. Robots are no longer a new species, so why can they get such high attention?</p><p>It turns out that the smart restaurant is located in the main media center of Beijing Winter Olympics. The restaurant covers an area of more than 3,680 square meters, which is divided into automatic bar area, Chinese food cloud track area and media dining area. It is understood that the smart restaurant is equipped with 120 meal-making robots, and the intelligent and automated catering equipment in the restaurant can run 24 hours a day, ensuring the automation of the whole process of ordering, preparing and serving, and serving thousands of people at the same time.</p><p>Surprisingly, there are no chefs or waiters in the restaurant to serve food. Chinese and Western food cooking and cocktail preparation are all done by robots. Diners scan a QR code on the table to order, and then a robot chef in the kitchen starts making it. All robots are behind clear glass, so everyone can see the cooking process.</p><p>Finally, the robot completes the whole food delivery process, and the dishes will be delivered through the cloud rail system at the top of the restaurant. When the robot moves above the desired dining table, a tray of food \"falls from the sky\" along with a lowered cable, hovering in front of people for their access. According to the video, the way of serving food is somewhat similar to that of \"weightless\" restaurants.</p><p>Robots working in restaurants are just the tip of the iceberg for robotics applications throughout the Winter Olympics.</p><p>In terms of epidemic prevention, there are atomization disinfection robots in efficient disinfection scenes, distribution robots in material distribution scenes, cleaning robots responsible for intelligent cleaning, inspection robots responsible for reminding and disinfection services and many other types.</p><p>For example, the disinfection robot of Water Cube can automatically avoid obstacles and charge itself. The intelligent disinfection system built by AI big data can visualize, digitize and trace the disinfection of the venue, which can meet the needs of cleaning and disinfection of nearly 8,600 square meters of public areas in different areas of the venue.</p><p>The Beijing Winter Olympics also built an arrival and departure information system. On the basis of big data, cloud computing and other information technologies, it provided arrival and departure services for 32,000 Olympic customers during the competition by means of seamless connection of multiple systems and data sharing.</p><p>There is another eye-catching invention in this Winter Olympics: a wearable thermometer-\"underarm band-aid\" is an early warning for epidemic prevention and control. The chip sensor of this temperature measurement device is only the size of sand grains, and the temperature measurement can be accurate to 0.05°C, so as to accurately and quickly lock people with abnormal body temperature. Moreover, this innovation will provide technical support for contactless temperature monitoring of groups that will hold large-scale activities in the future.</p><p>The application of intelligent robots not only improves the color and efficiency of science and technology, but also increases the proportion of non-contact services, reduces the direct contact between people, and effectively reduces the infection risk of athletes and staff.</p><p>In terms of wear, China's self-developed alpine skiing training protective clothing adopts a new columnar array resistance structure and a new energy-absorbing cushioning material, which can effectively protect the shoulders and legs of alpine skiers.</p><p>In terms of accommodation, 6,000 smart beds provided by Qisheng Technology for athletes and team officials from all over the world have received unanimous praise and praise. It is reported that Summer Bricher, a female sleigh athlete of the United States Winter Olympics delegation, praised the smart beds on Tiktok, a video social media, and quickly became popular all over the world.</p><p>In terms of medical treatment, the relevant data released by the International Olympic Committee shows that due to the difficulty and danger of the Winter Olympic events, and the low-temperature environment, the injury probability of athletes in the snow events of the Winter Olympic Games is about 10%-14%. In this regard, the Beijing Winter Olympics also comprehensively improved the level of smart medical care. Such as building an intelligent mobile shelter; 5G telemedicine; Strengthen the application of wearable medical-grade intelligent devices; Research and develop public space aerosol COVID-19 detection system and so on.</p><p><b>New investment opportunities have surfaced</b></p><p>According to the budget data released by the Deputy Minister of Finance and Market Development of the Beijing Winter Olympics Bidding Committee, the budgeted revenue and expenditure for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were both US$1.51 billion, far lower than the RMB280 billion for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Among them, 65% of the construction budget of Beijing Winter Olympics venues comes from social investment.</p><p>While expenses have decreased, revenues are not optimistic accordingly. With reference to last year's 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games, a large number of events were held empty, which reduced the proportion of ticket revenue (12%), which was significantly lower than the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro (16%). At a time when the epidemic situation has not yet stabilized, the Beijing Winter Olympics will also face the same situation.</p><p>Fortunately, at present, there are as many as 50 known industries directly or indirectly related to the Olympic Games, and the investment-driving effect brought by them is still strong. The official holding of this Winter Olympics still has the potential to become a capital feast.</p><p>The secondary market response is the most obvious. It is understood that there are currently more than 50 listed companies in A shares to help the Beijing Winter Olympics, in terms of venue construction, technical support, supporting transportation facilities, licensed commodity sales, sponsorship and supply services.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital RMB, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robots and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious.</p><p>First of all, taking digital RMB as an example, the pilot of digital RMB is a highlight of the Beijing Winter Olympics. At present, 355,000 Winter Olympics scenes have been successfully landed, achieving full coverage of transportation, catering and accommodation, shopping and consumption scenes.</p><p>The accelerated promotion of digital RMB has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. In the past three months, more than 50% of the stocks in this sector have increased by more than 20%. At the same time, the payment hardware market in its upstream and downstream industrial chains, the bank IT upgrading market, and the promotion and scene service companies serving digital RMB have also attracted the attention of capital.</p><p>Secondly, it is no surprise that this Winter Olympics has also become a stage for the competition of new energy vehicles. According to the official statistics of the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, among the transportation service vehicles for the Winter Olympics, energy-saving and clean energy vehicles accounted for 100% of passenger cars and 85.84% of all vehicles, the highest in all previous Winter Olympics. During the Winter Olympics, over 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles (i.e. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will also be demonstrated and operated, equipped with more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations.</p><p>Again, it is worth mentioning that hydrogen energy, as the most promising secondary energy in the 21st century, also ushered in a new upsurge of development during the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to incomplete statistics, as of December 2021, there were about 85 investment projects related to hydrogen energy fuel cells, with a total investment amount of about 185.713 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the forecast of the International Hydrogen Energy Commission, by 2050, hydrogen energy will bear 18% of the global energy terminal demand, creating a market value of more than 2.5 trillion USD, and the global proportion of fuel cell vehicles will increase to 20%-25%. It should be pointed out that hydrogen fuel cell opportunities are more concentrated in the commercial vehicle segment.</p><p>In addition, this year's Beijing Winter Olympics has completed the migration of core systems to the cloud. This is the first time in the history of the Olympic Games that cloud computing has replaced traditional IT. So far, the core Olympic event results, event broadcast, information release, athletes' arrival and departure, medical care, accommodation, transportation and other information systems have been migrated to Alibaba Cloud.</p><p>The comprehensive cloud movement of this Winter Olympics has also brought new possibilities for the live broadcast and broadcast of events and the audience's viewing experience, such as solving the huge amount of news collection and editing, and providing technical support for the application of AR/VR equipment and high-definition video.</p><p>In addition, the emergence of virtual people has also contributed to the new experience of watching games. Taking AI sign language anchors as an example, they can not only report news, but also broadcast live sign language of events, which will bring good news to the hearing impaired.</p><p>Of course, as AR/VR hardware and virtual people that are ignited by the metaverse, these two fields are also the darlings of capital this year. Taking virtual humans as an example, in 2021 alone, there were more than 60,000 new virtual human-related enterprises in China; The investment field is even more generous. Less than a month after the beginning of 2022, the cumulative amount of nearly 100 financings in the virtual human field has exceeded 400 million yuan.</p><p>In addition, the ubiquitous behind-the-scenes hero artificial intelligence and the robots active in the front line will also be blown into the wind again by the east wind of Beijing Winter Olympics, especially disinfection robots, service robots and epidemic prevention robots, which are expected to be extended to daily life on a large scale after the Winter Olympics.</p><p>From the first use of electronic timing for the Stockholm Olympics in 1912, the first television broadcast of the Berlin Olympics in 1936, and the opening of the world's first high-speed rail on the eve of the Tokyo Olympics in 1964, we can see that the opening of the Olympic Games is always accompanied by the birth of new scientific and technological achievements.</p><p>We also have reason to believe that these scientific and technological achievements of this Winter Olympics will move from the field to the daily life, and with the blessing of capital, they can become a new bright spot of public life.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Winter Olympics open today, and I see a trillion-level investment opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Winter Olympics open today, and I see a trillion-level investment opportunity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-04 10:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games.</b>On the evening of February 4, the opening ceremony of the XXIV Winter Olympic Games was held at the National Stadium. As a result, Beijing will also become the only city in the world to have hosted both the Summer Olympics and the Winter Olympics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2642a40bccd5e127fa718128d6d254bd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that, unlike the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics are naturally affected by environmental, climate and other factors. At the same time, this Winter Olympics is the first Winter Olympics held under the background of continental monsoon climate in nearly 20 years. In addition, the current global COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading, and the overall difficulty of hosting can be imagined.</p><p>For example, the team from Tsinghua University, with the support of multiple data and machine learning, combined with bioinformatics and other disciplines, designed a set of epidemic monitoring and early warning system that can be used for closed-loop management of the Winter Olympics. Assuming that there is a sudden epidemic during the game, high-risk groups, susceptible areas, susceptible behaviors and weaknesses in epidemic prevention and control can be screened out in time and accurately, and a technical barrier for epidemic prevention can be built for the Winter Olympics with science and technology.</p><p>Earlier, the director of the Expert Committee of Science and Technology Winter Olympics said in an exclusive interview with Phoenix Satellite TV: \"After the emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic, safety issues have been placed in a very prominent position in the process of preparing for the Winter Olympics. The research results of scientific researchers can not only be applied to this Winter Olympics, but also be valuable experience for social epidemic prevention and control and other large-scale international activities.\"</p><p>Such things are just the tip of the iceberg in the preparations for the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to the data published in the Guide for the Declaration of Key Special Orientation Projects of the Science and Technology Winter Olympics, in order to support the successful completion and landing of the Science and Technology Winter Olympics project, the total estimated budget of the state allocated funds in 2018-2021 is about 1.49 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the data of Beijing Science and Technology Commission, more than 200 technologies have been tested and used in the Winter Olympics scenario, involving information engineering and software engineering, public safety, high-definition video, 5G and new energy.</p><p>It is precisely because of this that \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games, and even some industry comments say that this year's Beijing Winter Olympics will become a world-class science and technology exhibition.</p><p>Take the torch \"Flying\" of this Winter Olympics as an example. It is reported that the torch was designed by Li Jianye, the chief industrial designer of Alibaba. He said that the torch shell pioneered the lightweight and high-temperature resistant \"carbon fiber\" material, which is not only fire-resistant and high-temperature resistant, but also resistant to Grade 10 strong winds and rainstorms. At the same time, the torch also uses environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel, which makes the carbon emission of the torch \"zero\" when it burns, and its characteristics also ensure that the torch can be used in extremely cold weather.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital RMB, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robots and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious, which may bring a trillion-level investment opportunity.</p><p><b>Infrastructure painted by technology</b></p><p>When it comes to competitions, the first thing many people pay attention to is the venue. From the well-known Bird's Nest and Water Cube to the ice ribbon and snow dragon that came into the public eye in this Winter Olympics, each unique design embodies ingenuity and wisdom.</p><p>Different from the past, in order to better welcome this Winter Olympics, each competition venue has carried out some \"technology\" packaging. For example, as the only newly-built ice venue in Beijing's competition area, National Speed Skating Oval \"Ice Ribbon\" adopts the single-layer two-way orthogonal saddle-shaped cable net roof with the largest span in the world, and the steel consumption is only 1/4 of that of traditional roof.</p><p>Similarly, the National Snowmobile Sled Center, known as \"Snow Dragon\", adopts \"millimeter-level\" hyperboloid concrete spraying and finishing molding technology, and the 1.9-kilometer track is sprayed and molded at one time. With the blessing of technology, Water Cube realized the site conversion from water to ice within 20 days. With the help of the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence technology, the Bird's Nest has turned into a digital, low-carbon and intelligent sports venue.</p><p>Of course, the above is only a small part of the competition venues of many scientific and technological fans of the Winter Olympics, but this is enough to see that this Winter Olympics has started the scientific and technological layout from the most basic facilities.</p><p>Besides the venues, the most inseparable thing for the Winter Olympics is ice and snow. As we mentioned at the beginning, Beijing belongs to the continental monsoon climate zone. Therefore, there are two \"black technologies\" in this Winter Olympics-artificial snow and \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>It is understood that this Winter Olympics will be the first ever to use 100% artificial snow. The characteristic of artificial snow is that the ice content is high, which is 20% higher than that of natural snow. Such characteristics also bring positive and negative effects. On the one hand, artificial snow may increase the possibility of athletes' injuries. On the other hand, artificial snow can overcome the differences in snow field characteristics and make competition fairer.</p><p>Not only that, the \"Ice Ribbon\" venue also creatively adopts carbon dioxide transcritical direct cooling ice making technology, which ensures constant ice surface temperature and better ice surface quality, thus becoming the \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>If the venues and ice and snow environment are still artificially controllable factors, then the climate change in the Winter Olympics is a change factor that can't be ignored. The reason behind this is that 70% of the events in the Winter Olympics are snow events, and most of them are held in mountainous areas with complex terrain.</p><p>Therefore, meteorological support has become the top priority of ice and snow sports. So far, the meteorological support project has achieved certain scientific and technological innovation achievements, especially the \"100-meter-level and minute-level\" forecast for the first time. As we all know, even if we are in the plain area, it is impossible for the current weather software to achieve \"100 meters and minutes\", but in the mountains, it is even more arduous to face the technical challenge to this extent.</p><p>In general event venues, a large number of physical fence protection or a large number of manpower will be used for security work. However, the Winter Olympics are mostly in the deep mountains with complex terrain, with harsh climate and environmental conditions, and the temperature difference between day and night is as high as tens of degrees. Therefore, the application of intelligent sentinel robot was born.</p><p>By deploying intelligent sentinel robots in the Zhangjiakou competition area of this Winter Olympics, it can automatically and accurately judge the category of intruders in daily monitoring, and upload the monitored situation or the whereabouts of intruders to the command center in the background, effectively improving the efficiency of security staff and ensuring the safety of the Winter Olympics. Its lowest low temperature tolerance is also over-forty degrees.</p><p>In Wukesong Sports Center, an ice hockey stadium in Beijing, there are also service robots officially on duty. It is understood that 12 security service robots provide contactless ticket checking for audiences to enter the venue, and can complete eight processes such as identity verification, intelligent temperature measurement, health code inquiry and vaccination inquiry within 1 second. On the periphery of the venue, four intelligent service robots provide information guidance, interactive Q&A, and explain the whole process of Winter Olympics.</p><p>In addition, China has developed and put into use the first 5G +8K broadcast car in China, which will provide the public with high-quality off-site viewing services. In this way, the upcoming 8K channel will give viewers the opportunity to see 8K games on TV during the game, and also the opportunity to see ultra-high-definition pictures through 8K terminals in Winter Olympics venues, city squares and other places.</p><p><b>Smart Life Everywhere</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the core of sports competition is still people. How to help athletes get better play in training, life and competition with the help of scientific and technological means is fundamental.</p><p>Take the curling sport, in which the Chinese team won two consecutive victories two days before the start of the competition, as an example. In 2019, the research and development of curling robots began. This project is a national key special project of the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" of the Ministry of Science and Technology. Curling robots make up for the shortage of curling tactical analysis methods and assist athletes in training by using advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, image recognition and automatic control.</p><p>In terms of food, the Beijing Winter Olympics used self-developed ultra-micro trusted chips, combined with the non-tamperable and traceable characteristics of blockchain, to build a food safety guarantee platform for the Winter Olympics, which provided strong support for the catering service of the Winter Olympics.</p><p>It is undeniable that before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robot applications have been accompanied by smart restaurants out of the circle and swiped screens on major social media platforms. Robots are no longer a new species, so why can they get such high attention?</p><p>It turns out that the smart restaurant is located in the main media center of Beijing Winter Olympics. The restaurant covers an area of more than 3,680 square meters, which is divided into automatic bar area, Chinese food cloud track area and media dining area. It is understood that the smart restaurant is equipped with 120 meal-making robots, and the intelligent and automated catering equipment in the restaurant can run 24 hours a day, ensuring the automation of the whole process of ordering, preparing and serving, and serving thousands of people at the same time.</p><p>Surprisingly, there are no chefs or waiters in the restaurant to serve food. Chinese and Western food cooking and cocktail preparation are all done by robots. Diners scan a QR code on the table to order, and then a robot chef in the kitchen starts making it. All robots are behind clear glass, so everyone can see the cooking process.</p><p>Finally, the robot completes the whole food delivery process, and the dishes will be delivered through the cloud rail system at the top of the restaurant. When the robot moves above the desired dining table, a tray of food \"falls from the sky\" along with a lowered cable, hovering in front of people for their access. According to the video, the way of serving food is somewhat similar to that of \"weightless\" restaurants.</p><p>Robots working in restaurants are just the tip of the iceberg for robotics applications throughout the Winter Olympics.</p><p>In terms of epidemic prevention, there are atomization disinfection robots in efficient disinfection scenes, distribution robots in material distribution scenes, cleaning robots responsible for intelligent cleaning, inspection robots responsible for reminding and disinfection services and many other types.</p><p>For example, the disinfection robot of Water Cube can automatically avoid obstacles and charge itself. The intelligent disinfection system built by AI big data can visualize, digitize and trace the disinfection of the venue, which can meet the needs of cleaning and disinfection of nearly 8,600 square meters of public areas in different areas of the venue.</p><p>The Beijing Winter Olympics also built an arrival and departure information system. On the basis of big data, cloud computing and other information technologies, it provided arrival and departure services for 32,000 Olympic customers during the competition by means of seamless connection of multiple systems and data sharing.</p><p>There is another eye-catching invention in this Winter Olympics: a wearable thermometer-\"underarm band-aid\" is an early warning for epidemic prevention and control. The chip sensor of this temperature measurement device is only the size of sand grains, and the temperature measurement can be accurate to 0.05°C, so as to accurately and quickly lock people with abnormal body temperature. Moreover, this innovation will provide technical support for contactless temperature monitoring of groups that will hold large-scale activities in the future.</p><p>The application of intelligent robots not only improves the color and efficiency of science and technology, but also increases the proportion of non-contact services, reduces the direct contact between people, and effectively reduces the infection risk of athletes and staff.</p><p>In terms of wear, China's self-developed alpine skiing training protective clothing adopts a new columnar array resistance structure and a new energy-absorbing cushioning material, which can effectively protect the shoulders and legs of alpine skiers.</p><p>In terms of accommodation, 6,000 smart beds provided by Qisheng Technology for athletes and team officials from all over the world have received unanimous praise and praise. It is reported that Summer Bricher, a female sleigh athlete of the United States Winter Olympics delegation, praised the smart beds on Tiktok, a video social media, and quickly became popular all over the world.</p><p>In terms of medical treatment, the relevant data released by the International Olympic Committee shows that due to the difficulty and danger of the Winter Olympic events, and the low-temperature environment, the injury probability of athletes in the snow events of the Winter Olympic Games is about 10%-14%. In this regard, the Beijing Winter Olympics also comprehensively improved the level of smart medical care. Such as building an intelligent mobile shelter; 5G telemedicine; Strengthen the application of wearable medical-grade intelligent devices; Research and develop public space aerosol COVID-19 detection system and so on.</p><p><b>New investment opportunities have surfaced</b></p><p>According to the budget data released by the Deputy Minister of Finance and Market Development of the Beijing Winter Olympics Bidding Committee, the budgeted revenue and expenditure for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were both US$1.51 billion, far lower than the RMB280 billion for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Among them, 65% of the construction budget of Beijing Winter Olympics venues comes from social investment.</p><p>While expenses have decreased, revenues are not optimistic accordingly. With reference to last year's 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games, a large number of events were held empty, which reduced the proportion of ticket revenue (12%), which was significantly lower than the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro (16%). At a time when the epidemic situation has not yet stabilized, the Beijing Winter Olympics will also face the same situation.</p><p>Fortunately, at present, there are as many as 50 known industries directly or indirectly related to the Olympic Games, and the investment-driving effect brought by them is still strong. The official holding of this Winter Olympics still has the potential to become a capital feast.</p><p>The secondary market response is the most obvious. It is understood that there are currently more than 50 listed companies in A shares to help the Beijing Winter Olympics, in terms of venue construction, technical support, supporting transportation facilities, licensed commodity sales, sponsorship and supply services.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital RMB, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robots and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious.</p><p>First of all, taking digital RMB as an example, the pilot of digital RMB is a highlight of the Beijing Winter Olympics. At present, 355,000 Winter Olympics scenes have been successfully landed, achieving full coverage of transportation, catering and accommodation, shopping and consumption scenes.</p><p>The accelerated promotion of digital RMB has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. In the past three months, more than 50% of the stocks in this sector have increased by more than 20%. At the same time, the payment hardware market in its upstream and downstream industrial chains, the bank IT upgrading market, and the promotion and scene service companies serving digital RMB have also attracted the attention of capital.</p><p>Secondly, it is no surprise that this Winter Olympics has also become a stage for the competition of new energy vehicles. According to the official statistics of the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, among the transportation service vehicles for the Winter Olympics, energy-saving and clean energy vehicles accounted for 100% of passenger cars and 85.84% of all vehicles, the highest in all previous Winter Olympics. During the Winter Olympics, over 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles (i.e. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will also be demonstrated and operated, equipped with more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations.</p><p>Again, it is worth mentioning that hydrogen energy, as the most promising secondary energy in the 21st century, also ushered in a new upsurge of development during the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to incomplete statistics, as of December 2021, there were about 85 investment projects related to hydrogen energy fuel cells, with a total investment amount of about 185.713 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the forecast of the International Hydrogen Energy Commission, by 2050, hydrogen energy will bear 18% of the global energy terminal demand, creating a market value of more than 2.5 trillion USD, and the global proportion of fuel cell vehicles will increase to 20%-25%. It should be pointed out that hydrogen fuel cell opportunities are more concentrated in the commercial vehicle segment.</p><p>In addition, this year's Beijing Winter Olympics has completed the migration of core systems to the cloud. This is the first time in the history of the Olympic Games that cloud computing has replaced traditional IT. So far, the core Olympic event results, event broadcast, information release, athletes' arrival and departure, medical care, accommodation, transportation and other information systems have been migrated to Alibaba Cloud.</p><p>The comprehensive cloud movement of this Winter Olympics has also brought new possibilities for the live broadcast and broadcast of events and the audience's viewing experience, such as solving the huge amount of news collection and editing, and providing technical support for the application of AR/VR equipment and high-definition video.</p><p>In addition, the emergence of virtual people has also contributed to the new experience of watching games. Taking AI sign language anchors as an example, they can not only report news, but also broadcast live sign language of events, which will bring good news to the hearing impaired.</p><p>Of course, as AR/VR hardware and virtual people that are ignited by the metaverse, these two fields are also the darlings of capital this year. Taking virtual humans as an example, in 2021 alone, there were more than 60,000 new virtual human-related enterprises in China; The investment field is even more generous. Less than a month after the beginning of 2022, the cumulative amount of nearly 100 financings in the virtual human field has exceeded 400 million yuan.</p><p>In addition, the ubiquitous behind-the-scenes hero artificial intelligence and the robots active in the front line will also be blown into the wind again by the east wind of Beijing Winter Olympics, especially disinfection robots, service robots and epidemic prevention robots, which are expected to be extended to daily life on a large scale after the Winter Olympics.</p><p>From the first use of electronic timing for the Stockholm Olympics in 1912, the first television broadcast of the Berlin Olympics in 1936, and the opening of the world's first high-speed rail on the eve of the Tokyo Olympics in 1964, we can see that the opening of the Olympic Games is always accompanied by the birth of new scientific and technological achievements.</p><p>We also have reason to believe that these scientific and technological achievements of this Winter Olympics will move from the field to the daily life, and with the blessing of capital, they can become a new bright spot of public life.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TKozH5gi54BjN087OGa7mg\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417fd02a5a1a554bfb51559e8c34d024","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TKozH5gi54BjN087OGa7mg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159530168","content_text":"“科技冬奥”成为了北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主要特色。2月4日晚，第二十四届冬季奥林匹克运动会开幕式在国家体育场举行。如此一来，北京也将成为全球唯一一座既举办过夏季奥运会、又将举办冬奥会的城市。值得一提的是，不同于夏季奥运会，冬季奥运会天然受环境、气候等因素影响较多，同时，此次冬奥会还是近20年来首次在大陆性季风气候背景下举办的冬奥赛事，另外，当前全球新冠肺炎疫情还在持续蔓延，整体举办难度可想而知。比如，来自清华的团队就在在多重数据、机器学习等支持下，结合生物信息学等学科，设计了一套能用于冬奥闭环管理的疫情监测与预警系统，假设赛时突发疫情，可及时精准筛查出高风险人群、易感区域、易感行为以及疫情防控薄弱点等，用科技为冬奥筑起一道防疫技术屏障。此前，“科技冬奥”专家委员会主任在接受凤凰卫视专访时谈到：“新冠疫情出现之后，安全问题就摆在筹备冬奥过程中一个非常突出的位置。科研人员的研究成果，不仅可以应用于本届冬奥，对于社会面上的疫情防控，以及其他大型的国际活动，都是宝贵经验。”这样的事情，在北京冬奥会的筹办过程中，只是冰山一角。据《“科技冬奥”重点专项定向项目申报指南》公布的数据显示，为支持“科技冬奥”项目顺利建成落地，2018—2021年度国拨经费总概算约14.9亿元。根据北京市科学技术委员会数据，在冬奥场景先后测试和使用的200多项技术，涉及信息工程与软件工程、公共安全、高清视频、5G 和新能源等领域。也正是如此，“科技冬奥”成为了北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主要特色，甚至有业内评论称今年的北京冬奥会将成为世界级的科技展。还以正在接力的本届冬奥会的火炬“飞扬”为例，据悉，该火炬由阿里巴巴首席工业设计师李剑叶设计，他谈到，火炬外壳开创性地启用重量轻且耐高温的“碳纤维”材料，不仅耐火耐高温，还能抗10级大风和暴雨，同时，火炬还采用环保的氢气燃料，使火炬燃烧时的碳排放为“零”，其特性也保证了火炬能在极寒天气中使用。相关分析人士也指出，在数字人民币、氢能源、人工智能、机器人和高端制造领域，冬奥会带来的投资加持作用会更加明显，这或许将带来一次万亿级的投资机会。被科技上色的基础设施谈到比赛，很多人首先关注的就是场馆。从被熟知的鸟巢、水立方到本次冬奥会走入大众视线中的冰丝带、雪游龙，一个个独具特色的设计都凝聚着巧思与智慧。不同与往，为了更好的迎接这次冬奥会，每个竞赛场馆都进行了一番“科技”包装。比如作为北京赛区唯一新建的冰上场馆，国家速滑馆“冰丝带”采用了世界跨度最大的单层双向正交马鞍形索网屋面，用钢量仅为传统屋面的1/4。同样，被称为“雪游龙”的国家雪车雪橇中心采用“毫米级”双曲面混凝土喷射及精加工成型技术，1.9公里赛道一次性喷射浇筑成型。而水立方在技术的加持下，在20天内就实现了“由水到冰”的场地转换。鸟巢也在物联网、人工智能技术的助力下，摇身变成了数字、低碳、智能体育场馆。当然以上只是众多科技范儿冬奥会竞赛场馆的一小部分，但这也足以看出，本届冬奥会从最基础的设施部分就开始了科技布局。除了场馆外，冬奥会最离不开的就是冰雪了，正如我们开篇提到的，北京属于大陆性季风气候区，因此，本届冬奥会还有两项“黑科技”——人造雪和“最快冰面”。据了解，本届冬奥会将是有史以来第一届100%使用人造雪的奥运会。人造雪的特性是冰含量较高，比天然雪高出20%，这样的特性也带来了正反两方面的影响，一方面，人造雪可能增加运动员受伤的可能性，另一方面，人造雪可以克服雪场特性差异，让竞技更公平。不止如此，“冰丝带”场馆也创造性地采用二氧化碳跨临界直冷制冰技术，保证了冰面温度恒定，冰面质量更优，由此成为“最快冰面”。如果说场馆和冰雪环境尚属于人工可控因素，那么冬奥赛场上的气候变化则是一个不可忽视的变化因子，这背后原因在于冬奥会70%的项目都是雪上项目，大部分的雪上项目都在地形复杂的山区举办。因此，气象保障成为了冰雪运动的重中之重。到目前为止，气象保障项目取得了一定的科技创新成果，尤其是首次做到了“百米级、分钟级”预报。众所周知，就算我们在平原地区，现在的天气软件做到“百米级、分钟级”尚不可能，而在山地里，做到如此程度面对技术的挑战更为艰巨。在一般的赛事场地，安防工作会用到大量的物理围栏防护或采用大量人力，然而冬奥会比赛多在地形复杂的深山之中，气候环境条件严苛，日夜温差高至几十度，因此，智能哨兵机器人应用而生。本次冬奥会的张家口赛区通过部署智能哨兵机器人，在日常监测中，能自动精准判断入侵者的类别，并将监测到的情况或入侵者的行踪轨迹上传至后台的指挥中心，有效提高了安保工作人员效率，确保冬奥会的赛场安全。它最低的耐低温也超过零下四十度。在北京的冰球赛场五棵松体育中心，也有服务机器人正式上岗。据了解，12台安全服务机器人为观众入场提供无接触式检票，1秒钟内能完成身份验证、智能测温、健康码查询、疫苗接种情况查询等8项流程。场馆外围，4台智能服务机器人提供信息指引、互动答疑、全流程冬奥讲解。另外，我国研发国内首台5G＋8K转播车并投入使用，将为公众提供优质的非现场观赛服务。这样一来，即将开通的8K频道将让观众在赛时有机会在电视上看到8K比赛，也有机会在冬奥场馆、城市广场等地通过8K终端看到超高清画面。无处不在的智能生活归根到底，体育竞技的核心还是人。如何借助科技手段帮助在运动员训练、生活和比赛中得到更好的发挥才是根本。拿中国队在开赛前两天取得两连胜的冰壶运动来说，在2019年，冰壶机器人开始研发，该项目是科技部“科技冬奥”国家重点专项课题，冰壶机器人利用人工智能、图像识别、自动控制等先进技术，弥补冰壶战术分析手段的不足，辅助运动员进行训练。在食品方面，北京冬奥会利用自主研发的超微型可信芯片，结合区块链不可篡改和可追溯的特性，构建冬奥食品安全保障平台，为冬奥餐饮服务提供了有力支撑。不可否认，在北京冬奥会开始之前，机器人应用已经伴随着智慧餐厅出圈了，并在各大社交媒体平台刷屏。机器人早已不是什么新鲜物种，缘何能获得如此高的关注度？原来，该智慧餐厅位于北京冬奥会主媒体中心，餐厅占地3680多平方米，其中分为自动酒吧区，中餐云轨区和媒体就餐区。据了解，智慧餐厅配备了120台制餐机器人，餐厅内智能化、自动化的餐饮设备可24小时不间断运行，确保点餐、备餐、上菜全过程自动化，可同时为数千人服务。让人意外的是，餐厅没有厨师或服务员上菜，中餐和西餐烹饪、鸡尾酒调制都由机器人完成。就餐者扫描餐桌上的二维码点菜，然后厨房里的机器人厨师开始制作。所有机器人都在透明玻璃后面，所以每个人都可以看到烹饪过程。最后机器人完成整个送餐流程，菜品将通过餐厅顶部的云轨系统送达。当机器人移到所需的餐桌上方时，一盘盛着食物的托盘就会随着下放的缆绳 “从天而降”，悬停在人们面前，供其取用。根据视频来看，上菜方式有些类似与“失重”餐厅。在餐厅中工作的机器人只是整个冬奥会中机器人应用的冰山一角。防疫方面，高效消杀场景有雾化消毒机器人，物资分发场景有配送机器人，还有负责智能清扫的清洁机器人，负责提醒与消毒服务的巡检机器人等诸多类型。比如水立方的消毒机器人能够续自动避障、自行充电，通过AI大数据构建的智能化消毒系统将场馆消毒做到可视化、数据化、可追踪溯源化，可满足对场馆不同区域内近8600平方米的公共区域清扫消毒工作。北京冬奥会还建设了抵离信息系统，在大数据、云计算等信息技术基础上，以多系统无缝衔接，数据共享等手段，赛时为3.2万名奥运会客户群提供抵离服务。本届冬奥会还有一个吸睛的发明：可穿戴式体温计——“腋下创可贴”为疫情防控“站哨”预警。这款测温设备的芯片传感器仅沙粒大小，测温可精确到0.05°C，实现精准、快速锁定体温异常人群。而且，该项创新将为未来疫情常态化举办大型活动的群体无接触体温监测提供技术支撑。智能机器人的应用，不仅提高了科技色彩和效率，同时提升了非接触式服务比例，减少了人与人的直接接触，有效降低了运动员和工作人员的感染风险。穿着方面，我国自主研发的高山滑雪训练防护服，采用了新型的柱状阵列式抗击结构和新型吸能缓震材料，能够对高山滑雪运动员的肩腿部起到有效的保护作用。住宿方面，由麒盛科技为各国运动员及随队官员提供的6000张智能床，并得到了一致好评和点赞，据悉美国冬奥代表团雪橇女将萨默·布里彻在视频社交媒体Tiktok上对智能床大加赞扬，并迅速发酵走红全球。医疗方面，国际奥委会发布的相关数据显示，由于冬奥会项目难度较大、危险性较高，且在低温环境下，所以冬奥会雪上项目的运动员受伤概率约在10%—14%。对此，北京冬奥会也全面提升智慧医疗水平。如搭建智能移动方舱；5G远程医疗；加强穿戴式医疗级智能设备应用；研发公共空间气溶胶新冠病毒检测系统等等。新的投资机会浮出水面根据北京冬奥申委财务以及市场开发部副部长公布的预算数据，2022年北京冬奥会的预算收入以及支出皆为15.1亿美元，远低于2008年北京奥运会的人民币2800亿元。其中，北京冬奥会场馆建设预算有65%来自社会投资。虽然支出有所减少，但相应地收入也不乐观。参考去年2021年东京奥运会中出现了大量赛事空场举行的情况，削减了门票收入占比（12%），相较于2016年的约热内卢奥运会（16%）有明显下降。在疫情尚未稳定的当下，此次北京冬奥会也将面临相同的情况。幸运的是，目前已知的与奥运会直接或间接相关的产业多达50项，带来的投资带动效应依旧强劲，本次冬奥会的正式召开，依旧有成为资本盛宴的潜力。二级市场反应最为明显，据了解，A股目前有超过50家上市公司助力北京冬奥会的各项工作，分别在场馆建设、技术支持、交通设施配套、特许商品销售、赞助和供应服务等方面。相关分析人士也指出，在数字人民币、氢能源、人工智能、机器人和高端制造领域，冬奥会带来的投资加持作用会更加明显。首先，以数字人民币为例，开展数字人民币试点是北京冬奥会的一大亮点。目前已顺利落地35.5万个冬奥场景，实现交通出行、餐饮住宿、购物消费等场景全覆盖。数字人民币的加速推广也点燃了资本市场的热情，近三个月，该板块超五成个股累计涨幅超20%。同时，其上下游产业链上的支付硬件市场、银行IT升级改造市场、服务于数字人民币的推广与场景服务公司也得到了资本的关注。其次，毫不意外的是，这届冬奥会也成了新能源汽车比拼的舞台。据北京冬奥组委官方统计，冬奥会赛事交通服务用车中，节能与清洁能源车辆在小客车中占比100%，在全部车辆中占比85.84%，为历届冬奥会最高。冬奥会期间还将示范运行超1000辆氢能源汽车（即氢燃料电池汽车），配备30多个加氢站。再次，值得一提的是，氢能源作为21世纪最具发展前景的二次能源，在北京冬奥期间也迎来了发展的新高潮。据不完全统计，截至2021年12月，氢能源燃料电池相关投资项目约85项，投资总金额约1857.13亿元。据国际氢能委员会预测，到2050年，氢能将承担全球18%的能源终端需求，创造超过2.5万亿美元的市场价值，燃料电池汽车在全球占比将提升至20%-25%。需要指出的是氢燃料电池的机会更多集中在商用车领域。还有，今年北京冬奥已经完成核心系统迁移上云。这是奥运史上首次由云计算替代传统IT，至此，奥运最核心的赛事成绩、赛事转播、信息发布、运动员抵离、医疗、食宿、交通等信息系统迁移至阿里云上。本届冬奥会的全面上云，也为赛事直播和转播以及观众观赛体验上带来了新的可能，比如解决新闻采编巨量工作，让AR/VR设备、高清视频的应用提供技术支持。以及，虚拟人的出现也助力了新的观赛体验，以AI手语主播为例，不仅可以报道新闻，还能进行赛事手语直播，这将给听障人士带来福音。当然，作为被元宇宙带火的AR/VR硬件以及虚拟人，这两大领域今年也是资本的宠儿。以虚拟人为例，仅2021年国内就新增虚拟人相关企业超6万家；投资领域更是大手笔频出，2022年开年还不到一个月，虚拟人领域近百起融资累计金额已经超过4亿元。此外，无处不在的幕后英雄人工智能，以及活跃在一线的机器人，同样将乘着北京冬奥的东风再次被吹上风口，尤其是消毒机器人、服务机器人和防疫机器人等，在冬奥会后有望大规模推广到日常生活中。从1912年斯德哥尔摩奥运会首次使用电子计时，到1936年柏林奥运会首次实现电视转播，再到1964年东京奥运会开幕前夕开通世界上首条高铁，我们看到，奥运盛会的开启，总是伴随着新的科技成果的诞生。我们也有理由相信，本届冬奥会的这些科技成果将从赛场走向日常，经过资本的加持，可以成为大众生活的新亮点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808512518,"gmtCreate":1627601628034,"gmtModify":1703493017822,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 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Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"goid","listText":"goid","text":"goid","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886216786","repostId":"2167535940","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2167535940","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631591760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167535940?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 11:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taper is getting closer! What is the current position of the US stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167535940","media":"东亚前海策略团队","summary":"投资要点\n当下美股正处于历史最长的牛市之中。标普 500 指数在 2009 年以来的 12 年牛市中累计涨幅高达 559.04%，无论是延续时长还是累计涨幅都创下了历史记录。我们通过对 1928 年以","content":"<p><b>Investment Points</b></p><p>The US stock market is currently in its longest bull market in history. The S&P 500 index has risen by a staggering 559.04% in its 12-year bull market since 2009, setting a new record for both the duration and cumulative gains. By summarizing and sorting out the macro and micro characteristics of the 13 rounds of bull and bear market transitions in the US stock market since 1928, and comparing them with the present, we aim to provide inspiration for investors:</p><p><b>Overall, the following macroeconomic characteristics exist during the bull-bear market transition in the US stock market: 1) Valuations are at high levels:</b>In 12 of the 13 bull-bear cycles, US stock valuations were above the 80% percentile when the market peaked.<b>2) liquidity tightening:</b>Historically, 10 rounds of bull-bear cycles have occurred against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve proactively adjusting its monetary policy. At the same time, liquidity tightening and the emergence of turning points in US stocks are highly correlated.<b>3) Deteriorating fundamentals:</b>Ten of the 13 rounds of bear markets occurred against the backdrop of declining corporate profits.<b>4) Tax increase:</b>Historically, three rounds of bear markets have occurred against the backdrop of tax increases.<b>5) External shocks:</b>External shocks are not necessarily the main drivers of market declines, but the suppression of investor risk appetite by the nine external shocks that occurred during a bear market can significantly accelerate market declines.</p><p><b>From a micro perspective, US stocks share some common characteristics during bull and bear market transitions: 1) Asset allocation:</b>Households are overweight in stock assets, and foreign capital inflows have accelerated significantly;<b>2) Valuation aspect:</b>P/E and price-to-book ratios are at historical highs, the Tobin Q median is more than 2 standard deviations above the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett Index is more than 1.5 standard deviations above the long-term trend.<b>3) Transaction level:</b>The number of new share issuances has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks is declining, and the ratio of call options to put options is too high;<b>4) Technical specifications:</b>The proportion of stocks in the S&P 500 that deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% and above the MA250 increased significantly.</p><p>Currently, from multiple dimensions such as policy, capital, market characteristics, investor sentiment, and valuations, US stocks are at historically extreme levels. This means that even though major US stock indices may still rise due to the global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the probability of a significant market correction is increasing significantly, and investors need to remain highly cautious about US stocks at this time.</p><p><b>Based on the historical bull and bear market cycles in the US stock market in review, we believe that the current US stock market has many similarities to the dot-com bubble period of 2000.</b>From a micro perspective, some of the current indicators representing market sentiment warned of risks in 2018 and 2000. However, from a macro perspective, the current US stock market is facing a very different macro environment than in 2018, while sharing many common characteristics with 2000: First, both bull markets lasted for ten years, with the bubble mainly driven by growth stocks, and the bull market has significant structural characteristics. Second, profitability was the main driving factor in both bull markets; Third, the extremely dovish monetary policies in both bull markets contributed to the expansion of the bubble; Fourth, assets in both periods had already experienced valuation bubbles two years ago, but the bubble was further perpetuated by the loose liquidity environment and improved corporate profitability driven by macroeconomic policies.</p><p><b>In the medium term, all three factors could lead to the bursting of the US stock market bubble.</b>1) With the better-than-expected recovery in US employment, the Fed's Taper signal may be released at the Fed's September interest rate meeting. The marginal tightening of monetary policy, which the Taper signal indicates, will put significant pressure on US stock valuations. 2) On the other hand, the advancement of Biden's tariff policy will further put pressure on US stock earnings; 3) External shocks such as the unexpected spread of the pandemic may also put further downward pressure on US stocks.</p><p>Unlike the United States' dominant position in the global economy in 2000, China's current share of the global economy is increasing. Coupled with the asynchronous economic and monetary cycles between China and the United States, the bull-bear shift in US stocks may impact A-share sentiment in the short term. However, in the long run, the trend of A-shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The pandemic in developed economies has exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and the US has raised tariffs more than expected.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Since March 2009, the current bull market in US stocks has lasted 12.5 years, with a cumulative increase of 559.04%. Currently, US stock earnings are in a recovery phase, while valuations are already at historical highs. With Taper approaching, there is considerable disagreement in the market about \"where US stocks currently stand\".</p><p>In our previous report, \"The Revelation of the US Stock Market Bull Market (Part 1) - The Opening, Development and End of Past US Stock Market Bull Markets,\" we examined the background and market performance of the 13 bull and bear market cycles in the US stock market since 1928 on review. In this report, we will continue to review and interpret the changes and significance of macro and micro indicators during the past bull and bear market transitions in the US stock market, and further explore the similarities and differences between the current US stock market and the past, in order to provide inspiration for investors.</p><p><b>In the medium term, with the implementation of overseas Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet this year, downward pressure on the domestic economy is gradually emerging, the central bank is promoting credit issuance, and the inflection point of macroeconomic liquidity is approaching. In addition, the G20 summit at the end of October is expected to become an important catalyst for improving market risk sentiment. From the perspective of the A-share market, with the market shift since August, the current market style has become more balanced. Some sectors that have undergone significant adjustments this year have initially shown value for left-side investment.</b></p><p><b>01. The 13 rounds of bull and bear cycles since 1928</b></p><p>According to the definition of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a bear market/bull market typically refers to a market where a broad-based index falls/rises by more than 20% for more than two months. Based on this identification criterion, combined with adjustments to market consensus, we have identified 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions in the U.S. stock market since 1928 (the S&P 500 index was launched in 1957 and traced back to 1928).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922d4bd5c0b314cea05ee300f3542e2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First round:</b>In September 1929, intensifying speculative activity pushed U.S. stock valuations to high levels. the Federal Reserve took the initiative to rate hike to curb speculative activity. Driven by panic, the U.S. stock market experienced the fastest and deepest flash Crash in history. From October 23 to October 29 of the same year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 29.54%, known as the Great Crash. Subsequently, as economic fundamentals continued to deteriorate, the market also fell rapidly, with the S&P 500 index falling by a cumulative 86.16% by July 1932.</p><p><b>Second round:</b>In March 1937, the premature withdrawal of policies during the post-Great Depression recovery led to another recession in the U.S. economy. The second deterioration in fundamentals severely damaged the confidence of American investors, and the market turned downward again. The S&P 500 index remained sluggish under the shadow of World War II until April 1942, with a cumulative drop of 59.99%.</p><p><b>Third round:</b>In May 1946, the United States fell into severe inflation after the end of World War II, with the lifting of wartime price controls and the increase in the minimum wage brought about by the power of unions after veterans returned to the labor market. A bear market also began against the backdrop of monetary tightening caused by inflation. The market remained sluggish amidst volatility until the economy returned to normal in 1950, when the bull market resumed. During this period, the S&P 500 fell by a cumulative 29.61%.</p><p><b>Fourth round:</b>In August 1956, against the backdrop of a continued boom in the U.S. economy and a slight rise in inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve once again implemented a tight monetary policy. This rate hike not only impacted market liquidity, but also completely shattered already fragile market sentiment. The S&P 500 index has fallen 21.63% in a year.</p><p><b>Fifth round:</b>In December 1961, after a four-year bull market, the Shiller P/E of the S&P 500 hit a new high since June 1930, and the valuation of US stocks reached a considerable high level. The anxiety caused by overvaluation dominated this bear market, and the S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 27.97%, known as the \"Kennedy slide\".</p><p><b>Sixth round:</b>In April 1966, against the backdrop of the outbreak of the Vietnam War, inflationary pressures resurfaced in the United States. The Federal Reserve's rate hike policy, constrained by the 5.5% deposit interest rate cap (Regulation Q), triggered a Credit Crunch in the commercial banking system. The reluctance of commercial banks to lend eventually triggered the Minsky Moment, and the S&P 500 index also experienced a rapid decline during this period. By October 1996, the S&P 500 had fallen rapidly by 22.18% during this brief period of bear market.</p><p><b>Seventh round:</b>In December 1968, the inflation problem escalated again, and the Federal Reserve quickly tightened liquidity to prevent further deterioration of inflation. After initial fluctuations, the market began to decline rapidly from June 1969 until the marginal easing of monetary policy in 1970, which ended the downward trend. By May 1970, the S&P 500 index had fallen by a cumulative 36.06%.</p><p><b>Round 8:</b>In January 1973, against the backdrop of stagflation, the Bretton Woods collapse, Watergate, and the outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War occurred one after another. The Black Swan event and the tightening of liquidity during the first oil crisis severely impacted the US capital market. The S&P 500 index fell sharply between January 1973 and October 1974, with a cumulative drop of 48.2%.</p><p><b>Round 9:</b>In November 1980, the U.S. economy fell into recession again. The decline in corporate profits amid high interest rates and stagflation triggered this bear market. At the same time, Paul Volcker's resolute tightening monetary policy to curb inflation and the outbreak of the Fifth Middle East War in June 1982 once again impacted the market. The U.S. stock market reversed its positive trend in the third quarter of 1981 and fell sharply again, with a drop of 27.05% by August 1982.</p><p><b>Round 10:</b>In August 1987, the market ended a five-year bull market with a gain of 228.81%. The rapid rise led to selling pressure on US stocks. Under the influence of reduced tax incentives and the unexpectedly announced high trade deficit, US stocks experienced their largest single-day plunge since the 20th century. On October 19, the S&P 500 plummeted 20.5%, known as \"Black Monday\". By December of the same year, the S&P 500 had fallen by a cumulative 33.51%.</p><p><b>Round 11:</b>In July 1990, the Kuwait War triggered the third oil crisis, causing oil prices to rise again. Against the backdrop of inflation expectations pushing up risk-free yields and declining corporate profits due to the economic recession, the S&P 500 index fell rapidly by 19.92% in just three months.</p><p><b>Round 12:</b>In March 2000, the bursting of the dot-com bubble ended a decade-long bull market in the U.S. stock market. Previously, driven by strong economic growth and stable inflation, the S&P 500 index had surged by more than 416.98% over the past decade, and the bubble in US stocks had reached an unprecedented level. As the Federal Reserve's rate hike broke through the positive feedback cycle in a long-term low-interest-rate environment, the profit growth rate of listed companies declined rapidly. Subsequently, shocks such as the \"Enron incident\" in March 2001 further pushed market pessimism to its lowest point. The bear market continued until October 2002, when the S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 49.15%.</p><p><b>Thirteenth round:</b>In October 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis, leading to a severe economic recession. As the crisis rapidly deepened, the deterioration of fundamentals and the collapse of investor confidence occurred almost simultaneously, triggering this round of bear market. The continued deterioration of corporate profits and the impact of the successive bankruptcies of companies such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers on the market drove US stocks down. As of March 2009, the S&P 500 index had fallen by 56.78%, the largest drop in a bear market since 1942.</p><p><b>02. Macroeconomic characteristics of the US stock market during the bull-bear shift</b></p><p><b>Overall, in terms of macroeconomic characteristics, the main factors triggering the bull-bear shift in the 13 rounds of the US stock market are as follows: 1) Valuations are at a high level; 2) liquidity tightening; 3) Deteriorating fundamentals; 4) Expectations of tax increases and other factors suppressing profits; 5) Other external shocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b20864f4239e9df20be4c528a0daa7b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.1. Valuations are high</b></p><p>In the history of the U.S. stock market, except for the bear market between 1980 and 1982 when the S&P 500 P/E was at a low level, the valuation of the U.S. stock market was above the 80% historical percentile when the other 12 market peaks occurred. Among them, 8 times were above the 90% historical percentile. The P/E of the S&P 500 exceeded the 95% historical percentile during the Great Depression of 1929, the Kennedy crash of 1961, the flash crash of 1966, and the dot-com bubble of 2000.</p><p>The exceptional bear market of 1980-1982 occurred in a stagflationary environment, dominated by declining corporate profits, and the market fell further under the impact of liquidity tightening and the fifth Middle East war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb3c95f6f87d1bdcfe7113b3de3e350\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. liquidity tightening</b></p><p><b>Historically, 12 of the 13 bull-bear cycles have been triggered by a tightening of the liquidity environment, with 9 of them involving the Federal Reserve proactively adjusting the discount rate or Federal Funds rate.</b></p><p>Of the other three rounds, 1) When the bear market occurred in 1937, the U.S. Treasury decided to offset gold inflows to reduce excess reserves. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's policy of doubling the reserve requirement ratio, the previously strong monetary expansion came to an abrupt end under the two-way tightening of the base money and the money multiplier. The marginal tightening of liquidity also impacted the market. 2) When the bear market began in 1990, although the Federal Reserve maintained monetary policy stability and Federal Funds rate remained in a high-level fluctuation pattern, inflation expectations pushed up the risk-free rate, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond rose rapidly from 8.44% on July 17 to 8.92% on October 11. 3) During the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, although Ben Bernanke creatively introduced various financial instruments to inject liquidity into the market, the easing of macro liquidity failed to effectively improve the market's micro liquidity, and the rapid widening of credit spreads put enormous pressure on the prices of risky assets.</p><p>The only exception was the Kennedy Depression of 1961. During this downturn, the U.S. economy was stable, corporate profits were healthy, and interest rates remained relatively stable. According to research by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), changes in investor sentiment led to this market downturn.</p><p><b>At the same time, there is a high correlation between liquidity tightening and the turning point of US stocks.</b>Of the 13 rounds of bull and bear market cycles, 8 occurred in the same month as liquidity tightening, while the capital market turning points of the Great Depression of 1929 and the flash crash of 1966 were two months later than the implementation of the rate hike policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cea7e94799283b9cbc2e7bf89c040de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec3c9cf3bd9b5bc0da7cdc2e03caa548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.3. Deteriorating fundamentals</b></p><p>In the history of the US stock market, 10 out of 13 bull-bear cycles have occurred against the backdrop of declining corporate profits, with only three exceptions.</p><p>Of the three exceptional rounds, in the bear markets of 1961 and 1973, in a stagflationary environment caused by rising commodity prices, rising prices improved the profitability of upstream companies. During these two periods, US stock market profitability remained relatively good, driven by the rise in the energy sector. The occurrence of \"Black Monday\" in 1987 was more driven by investor panic. At that time, algorithmic trading, which was still in its infancy, and portfolio insurance, an automated trading strategy aimed at hedging the market risk of stock portfolios by shorting stock index futures, had not yet adapted to the flash crash of the market. The decline in stock prices activated more stop-loss orders for automated trading, which further deepened the decline in stock prices, and the market continued to fall in this a vicious circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8345030c65e43922663c02bd695f8100\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.4. Expectations of tax increases and other earnings suppression</b></p><p>Since 1950, the U.S. corporate tax rate has been lowered multiple times, with only one significant increase occurring in 1968. This tax increase, along with tightening liquidity, caused a bear market in which the S&P 500 index fell by 36.06% between 1968 and 1971.</p><p>In addition, during the bear market of 1937, Roosevelt, who was relatively cautious about fiscal deficits, implemented an austerity fiscal policy to cut federal spending in order to curb government spending and balance the budget, and implemented a tax policy against the backdrop of the impending outbreak of World War II in 1940. In 1980, then-US President<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The Crude Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act of 1980 was signed, which proposed to impose a 50% windfall profits tax on crude oil production companies. This measure suppressed the production enthusiasm of oil companies, led to a rapid increase in the effective corporate tax rate, and ultimately severely damaged the profitability of US-listed companies in the context of declining profits in the energy sector and high financing costs. Furthermore, during the \"Kennedy Drop\" of 1961, although no substantial tax increases were implemented, Kennedy publicly criticized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">American Steel</a>This has raised market concerns about the introduction of measures to suppress large enterprises, leading to disturbances such as \"tax increases\" or related measures that suppress corporate profit expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d456d1850581040caca03dbe752ac0\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.5. external shock</b></p><p>As a relatively mature capital market, US stocks have historically had a relatively strong ability to withstand risks. For example, external shocks such as the 1998 Asia-Pacific financial crisis and the 2011 European debt crisis only brought about a temporary correction in US stock asset prices and did not trigger a bear market. However, there have been four external shocks in history that have suppressed investors' risk appetite, accelerating market declines and deepening the decline in US stocks during bear markets.</p><p>In July 1956, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of the Suez Canal, which caused a great shock in European and American countries and also affected the sentiment of US stock investors.</p><p>In April 1973, the Watergate scandal intensified, and the uncertainty brought about by the turmoil also impacted the capital market. The outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War on October 6 further intensified external shocks, causing oil prices to soar and market sentiment to deteriorate further.</p><p>On June 6, 1982, the fifth Middle East war broke out, and the market once again turned to concerns about imported inflation. On August 12 of the same year, Mexico's finance minister officially informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the U.S. government that it was unable to repay $80 billion in foreign debt, thus triggering the Latin American debt crisis. The succession of external shocks once again affected the US stock market, which reversed its improving trend in the third quarter of 1981 and fell sharply again.</p><p>The Kuwait War in August 1990 triggered the third oil crisis, causing oil prices to rise again. Investors were particularly worried about this crisis after experiencing the first two oil crises in the 1970s, and the rising risk premium also put downward pressure on stock prices.</p><p><b>03. Microscopic characteristics of the US stock market during the bull-bear shift</b></p><p><b>Historically, US stocks have shared some common characteristics during bull and bear market transitions: 1) Asset allocation: households overweight stock assets and foreign capital inflows accelerate significantly; 2) Valuation aspect: P/E and price-to-book ratios are high, the median of Tobin Q is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations; 3) Trading aspects: New share issuance has increased significantly, market leverage is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the ratio of call options to put options is too high; 4) In terms of technical indicators: The proportion of stocks in the S&P 500 deviating from the long-term trend by more than 50% and above the MA250 has increased significantly.</b></p><p><b>3.1. asset allocation level</b></p><p><b>1) Household overweight equity assets</b></p><p><b>From an asset allocation perspective, overweight family equity assets often foreshadow the arrival of risk, and the market risk is relatively high when this allocation ratio exceeds 30%.</b>On the one hand, this increase in allocation reflects the rapid increase in market investor participation, which is often a harbinger of the later stages of a bull market; On the other hand, households overallocating risky assets often overdraw the potential for subsequent incremental funds to enter the market. Once macro liquidity is adjusted, it will be difficult for the market to find incremental funds at the micro level to alleviate the pressure of liquidity tightening. Historically, this indicator exceeded 30% during the 1966 \"flash crash,\" the 2000 \"dot-com bubble,\" and the bear market during the 2007 financial crisis. Currently, investor allocation sentiment in the United States is rising, with households allocating as much as 40.25% of their shares to equity, surpassing the historical high of 38.25% during the dot-com bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1196cc373f0817792da6960f339c9a62\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Foreign capital inflows have accelerated significantly.</b></p><p><b>Similarly, a rapid influx of foreign capital is usually a prominent feature of the later stages of a bull market.</b>Driven by domestic preference, foreign capital often tends to invest in domestic risky assets, only accelerating its inflow in the later stages of a bull market due to the continued rise in risky assets in US stocks. During this period, the market risk is relatively high. This indicator successfully confirmed the occurrence of three rounds of bull-bear transitions: the flash crash of \"Black Friday\" in 1987, the inflation of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and the crash caused by the spread of the financial crisis in 2007. It also monitored the market correction in April 2010. From the perspective of leading and lagging relationships, with the strengthening of the learning effect on US stocks, foreign capital flows have gradually shifted from lagging behind the market in early 2000 to leading the market in recent years. During Black Friday and the dot-com bubble, foreign capital lagged behind the market by 3 months and 8 months, respectively. During the financial crisis, foreign capital outflows were about 2 months ahead of the S&P 500 correction. In the 2010 US stock market correction, foreign capital also seemed to be ahead for about 2 months. Foreign capital inflows into US stocks are accelerating again, with foreign capital accounting for as much as 0.7% of the market capitalization in a single month. However, a turning point occurred at the end of June, with foreign capital beginning to shift out of the US stock market.  </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86abb4aaec43194d41d3b67e20f86a25\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.2. VALUATION</b></p><p><b>1) P/E and price-to-book ratio are high.</b></p><p><b>P/E is a classic indicator for measuring asset value, reflecting the number of years it takes to recoup a stock investment at current profits. Historically, when this indicator is higher than the historical 95th percentile, the market is at greater risk.</b>In 1929, 1961, 1966, and 2000, this indicator reached 32.56, 21.25, 22.66, and 44.19 respectively, all higher than the historical 95th percentile. 2018, the only year without a bear market, also saw a correction of 19.87%. P/E has once again broken through the 95th percentile, surpassing the second-highest peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, reaching a staggering 37.86 times. Meanwhile, the median P/E of the S&P 500 constituent stocks reached as high as 25.02 times, breaking through the historical peak of 22.76 times during the dot-com bubble era and reaching a historical extreme since 1990.</p><p>On the other hand, in terms of price-to-book ratio, the S&P 500's price-to-book ratio peaked at 5.04 times at the end of 1999, on the eve of the bursting of the dot-com bubble. This indicator is currently approaching its historical high again, reaching 4.59 times, a new high since October 2000. The median price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 constituent stocks is also at its historical high since 1990.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72dfb9cced8690fc40f868b3d87c399\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f88748b7c4835d402b76a84849485c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The median Tobin Q of the S&P 500 is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average.</b></p><p><b>Tobin Q is the ratio between the market value of a physical asset and its replacement value. When the Tobin Q of the entire market is too much above parity, investors may be overly optimistic about future asset returns. Since this indicator is subject to long-term changes due to the trend changes in the proportion of heavy assets of enterprises, we constructed a risk level warning indicator based on 2 standard deviations from the moving average of the previous 7 years to eliminate the trend impact.</b>Historically, this indicator has been well corroborated by the dot-com bubble of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2007. Although no systemic risk occurred after the indicator warned of risks in April 2015, the S&P 500 index subsequently experienced a sharp correction of 14.16%. In terms of its leading-lagging relationship with US stocks, this indicator has a certain lead. The inflection points of the Tobin Q indicator during the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2007 financial crisis were 8 months and 4 months ahead of the index inflection point, respectively, and the inflection point in 2015 was also 3 months ahead of the S&P 500 index. Currently, the Tobin Q value has once again exceeded the historical mean by more than 2 standard deviations since April 2021, and a turning point began in early August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The Buffett Index exceeds the long-term trend by 2 standard deviations.</b></p><p><b>The Buffett Index measures the ratio of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to GDP, which Buffett calls \"the best single measure of valuation levels at any given moment.\" As the proportion of direct financing increases, this value also shows a long-term upward trend. Looking at the trend deviation after removing the trend, the market often faces significant risk when the trend deviation of this indicator exceeds the mean by more than two standard deviations.</b>(Note: This index is the ratio of the total market capitalization of US stocks to GDP. The GDP data comes from BEA, while the total market capitalization of US stocks refers to the CMV algorithm. Before 1970, it uses the company equity statistics of the Federal Reserve, and after 1970, it uses the total market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 index. The total market capitalization of the two different calibers is adjusted continuously.)</p><p>Historically, the Buffett Index reached highs of more than one standard deviation in 1966 and 1968, and before the dot-com bubble in 2000, it reached two standard deviations above the mean. Subsequently, the market experienced a bull-bear cycle. During this bull market, the market reached one and two standard deviations above the mean in 2015 and 2018, respectively, after which the market experienced a correction of 14.16% and 19.87%, respectively. The Buffett Index has now broken through the long-term trend by more than 3 standard deviations and is at its historical extreme.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9360a59851a33d7b6d923ce531f01a\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.3. Transaction level</b></p><p><b>1) New share issuance has increased significantly.</b></p><p><b>The volume of IPOs typically affects stock prices in two ways. On the one hand, when market investors generally have a high risk appetite, initial public offerings are more likely to be oversubscribed. However, oversubscribed funds are often not used reasonably by companies, thus exacerbating the risk of collapse of oversubscribed stocks. During periods of extreme IPO activity, systemic risks can easily arise; On the other hand, new share issuances also have a siphoning effect on the market in terms of micro-liquidity, which can easily suppress the rise in stock prices.</b>Historically, since 2000, there have been 643 IPOs in a single year during the dot-com bubble. The number of new share issuances in the US stock market has once again exceeded 600, with 788 issuances as of September 12, 2021, a new high since 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5a37941657256518b0b509359a79f9\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Margin liabilities exceed the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations.</b></p><p><b>The scale of margin liabilities reflects the level of leverage in market transactions. Historically, when the leverage ratio is too high, the market often accumulates significant potential risks. Once the index begins to decline, it is easy to trigger systemic risks due to the chain reaction of leveraged funds cutting losses.</b>During the dot-com bubble in 2000 and before the global financial crisis in 2007, the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market exceeded the trend value by more than two standard deviations. Among them, during the dot-com bubble of 2000, this indicator and the S&P 500 reached a turning point at the same time; During the 2007 financial crisis, this indicator was about three months ahead of the index's inflection point. Starting in March 2021, margin liabilities in the U.S. stock market once again significantly exceeded the trend value by more than two standard deviations, and a turning point began to appear at the end of June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The proportion of low-priced stocks declined.</b></p><p><b>Historically, there has often been a rally in low-priced stocks (Penny stocks below $5) in the later stages of a bull market and on the eve of risk asset adjustments. Against the backdrop of an influx of marginal investors from outside the market, low-priced stocks often achieve excess returns.</b>Overall, the cumulative market risk is relatively greater when the proportion of low-priced stocks is less than 5%. This indicator was confirmed during the 2007 bear market, the 19.15% correction during the 2011 European debt crisis, the 12.08% correction in August 2015, and the 19.87% correction in 2018. As of September 12, this indicator had once again broken through the 5% threshold, with a reading of 4.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accb19c41170e09acfed15d4ad569d0c\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4) The proportion of call options/put options in US stocks is too high.</b></p><p><b>The ratio of call options to put options measures the strength of bullish sentiment compared to bearish sentiment in the US stock market, and often rises to over 200% at the end of a bull market when investor sentiment reaches its peak.</b>Looking at the history of US stocks since 1991, this indicator once exceeded 200% during the dot-com bubble driven by irrational sentiment in 2000, reaching an extreme point of 220%. This indicator has been rising sharply since the resumption of QE in 2020 against the backdrop of the pandemic. The latest reading is 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is in a relatively dangerous position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4974d62d91c36134dabdc00154f3d30e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.4. technical aspects</b></p><p><b>1) The S&P 500 index deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%.</b></p><p><b>Asset prices have an inherent tendency to fluctuate around trend values, so when the stock index deviates from the trend value for a long time, a \"mean regression\" often occurs. Historically, the market has undergone a significant correction when the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 deviates from its long-term trend by more than 50%.</b>At the turning point of the bull market in 1937, the S&P 500's trend deviation reached 65.64%; At the turning points in 1966 and 1968, the index reached 62.21% and 56.53%, respectively; Before the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, the index reached a historical peak of 79.98%. The S&P 500 has been deviating from its long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020. As of September 10, the trend deviation rate was as high as 78.20%, which is close to the historical peak on the eve of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8691c9ea65ad53e46fa36a2ac90237e2\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The proportion of stocks above MA250 increased significantly.</b></p><p><b>Historically, when most individual stocks in the stock market are at their long-term levels...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">trend line</a>At the above times, the market often faces a significant risk of correction.</b>Looking at the proportion of S&P 500 and Russell 3000 constituent stocks with an MA250 or higher, in January 1998, March 2010, and April 2011, the proportion of S&P 500 constituent stocks with an MA250 or higher exceeded 90%, while the proportion of Russell 3000 constituent stocks with an MA250 or higher exceeded 80%. The market experienced a correction of more than 15% in all three rounds, indicating that the inflection point was 6 months, 2 months, and 3 months ahead of the market, respectively. Both indicators have exceeded the warning values of 90% and 80% again since January 2021, with the turning points occurring in May 2021 and March 2021, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c128791cae417bda367438076f79ffc2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>04. The current US stock market environment is more similar to 2000.</b></p><p><b>4.1. Main characteristics of this bull market</b></p><p><b>The US stock market is currently in its 14th bull market since 1928.</b>This bull market, which began on March 10, 2009, has lasted 12.5 years and is the longest bull market in US stock history. The previous longest bull market was the dot-com bubble from October 12, 1990 to March 24, 2000, which spanned 9.5 years. Meanwhile, this bull market is also the largest in history. The 12-year slow bull market has led to a cumulative increase of 559.04% in US stocks, which also surpasses the 416.98% increase during the dot-com bubble and the 323.36% increase during the economic recovery after the Great Depression from July 1932 to March 1937.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddff39f22ac7ffbdcce7fc5d4fbcbeff\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10ebdb232ba20988d91772362e926c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Following the end of the 2008 global financial crisis, market confidence gradually recovered, driven by strong stimulus policies such as quantitative easing, and the US stock market returned to a bull market in March 2009. This bull market roughly presents a four-stage growth trend.</p><p><b>Phase 1: March 2009 to July 2011 (599 trading days, 98.81% increase).</b>During this period, the economic bottom out, loose liquidity, economic recovery, and restored investor confidence jointly drove the market upward trend.</p><p><b>Phase 2: November 2012 to August 2015 (691 trading days, an increase of 55.35%).</b>European debt crisis<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>After the negative factors such as huge losses and the fiscal cliff have all subsided, the US economy has returned to a track of moderate growth. During this period, the market rose moderately, with biotechnology companies performing exceptionally well, driving the Nasdaq index to quickly surpass the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><b>Phase 3: July 2016 to September 2018 (558 trading days, an increase of 39.53%).</b>After a year of market volatility and adjustment due to the exit of QE and the Federal Reserve's rate hike, Trump's tax cuts and fiscal stimulus policies after taking office constituted the main drivers for the resurgence of US stocks. Stimulated by tax cuts and fiscal policies, US corporate profits continued to grow during this period, driving the US stock market to continue its slow bull run, with the performance and market performance of technology stocks being particularly outstanding.</p><p><b>Phase 4: January 2019 to present (683 trading days, an increase of 89.64%).</b>After the market experienced a rapid correction in the fourth quarter of 2018 due to the surge in Treasury Bond yields, the shift in macroeconomic liquidity against the backdrop of the global economic recession in 2019 drove this round of market rally. During this period, the market has been on an upward trend since the impact of the pandemic in early 2020. During this period, the role of valuation factors increased significantly, especially after the restart of quantitative easing policies in response to the pandemic in 2020. The rise in valuations driven by loose liquidity led to a rapid rise in the Nasdaq index, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1291e241975d6d0ac900d368b10f29\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the current US stock market bull market, the main characteristics are as follows:</p><p><b>1) The current bull market in large-cap US stocks is driven by both earnings and valuation, while small-cap stocks measured by the Russell 2000 are mainly driven by earnings alone.</b>Since 2009, 64.13% of the S&P 500's current gains have been driven by earnings, 9.45% by a decline in risk-free interest rates, and 26.42% by risk appetite. Profitability is the most core driving factor in this bull market. In 2019-2020, the valuation-driven effect of loose liquidity increased significantly, with loose liquidity contributing 64.08% and 225.14% to market gains in 2019-2020, respectively. Looking at small-cap stocks measured by the Russell 2000 index, earnings factors contributed 80.22% of the gains during this bull market, while valuation factors influenced 19.78%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4642e47ffe5547e7bfe92be55bca3de\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77e5707664b1cf8b1305ea7f9ea6855\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2) Technology and internet companies performed particularly well.</b>Looking at the 11 industries categorized by the S&P 500 GICS, information technology companies have performed particularly well in this bull market, ranking first among all industries with a gain of 1268.85%, representing an excess return of 712.32% compared to the S&P 500. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Consumer discretionary sectors, represented by sectors such as these, also performed outstandingly, achieving an excess return of 466.83% compared to the S&P 500 index. Technology stocks performed most strongly on the FAAMG. Based on market capitalization, the five tech and internet giants rose by a total of 3,906% during this period, far exceeding the gains and losses of the three major stock indices. Judging from the changes in EPS, profitability played the most important role in FAAMG's performance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98440f7788f3df3c7e9d71113053883a\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d8e6fc7067afabcdb7e6b508c56e3b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>3) The significant impact of share buybacks by listed companies on the market is another prominent feature of this bull market.</b>During this bull market, share buybacks by listed companies played a significant role. In terms of the scale of buybacks, at the beginning of this bull market, the scale of buybacks announced in the second quarter of 2009 was only US$32.58 billion. However, by the first quarter of 2019, the scale of buybacks had expanded to US$204.252 billion and remained above US$150 billion for many quarters. Buybacks have a significant boosting effect on stock prices. On the one hand, buybacks reduce a company's share capital, which can directly improve the company's earnings per share and return on net assets. On the other hand, by reducing the weighted average cost of capital, they can drive the stock price up from the perspective of performance. On the other hand, share buybacks can improve corporate governance by optimizing the equity structure; Finally, the incremental demand provided by stock buybacks and the positive signals released also provide significant support for stock prices. Based on this, share buybacks during this bull market have significantly boosted EPS and stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6deec43db8c4c89438918dcffe777a\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. In terms of micro indicators, where does the US stock market currently stand?</b></p><p>From multiple perspectives including policy, capital, market characteristics, market sentiment, and valuation, we...<b>It is believed that the current US stock market exhibits some common characteristics of historical bull and bear market transitions. This means that even if major US stock indices still have the potential to rise amid the global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the market's upside potential is relatively limited, and investing in US stocks at this time requires caution.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of various micro-indicators representing market conditions:</b></p><p><b>1) Currently, among the asset allocation indicators:</b>Currently, investor allocation sentiment in the United States is rising, with households allocating as much as 40.25% to stocks, surpassing the historical high of 36.98% during the dot-com bubble. Regarding foreign capital, the net inflow of foreign capital accounted for as much as 0.7% of the market capitalization in June, a new high in nearly 10 years. This marked a turning point. Previously, during the 2007 financial crisis and the 2010 market correction, this turning point was about two months ahead of the index.</p><p><b>2) Among the indicators reflecting the reasonableness of the valuation:</b>P/E has once again broken through the 95th percentile, surpassing the second-highest historical peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time by a staggering 37.86 times; The median P/E of the S&P 500 constituent stocks reached its historical extreme; The price-to-book ratio also exceeded 4 times again, reaching a new high since 2000; The Tobin Q value and the Buffett Index broke through the historical average and historical trend values by more than 2 and 3 standard deviations, respectively, both remaining at historical extremes.</p><p><b>3) Among the indicators at the transaction level:</b>The number of new share issuances in the US stock market has once again exceeded 600, with 788 issuances as of August 20, 2021, a new high since 2000; As of the end of May 2021, the inflection point in the US stock market occurred in June after margin liabilities far exceeded the trend value by more than two standard deviations. During the 2007 financial crisis, this indicator was about three months ahead of the index inflection point. The proportion of low-priced stocks in the Russell 3000 index has once again reached the critical level of 5%; The ratio of call options to put options has risen sharply since the resumption of QE in 2020 against the backdrop of the pandemic, with the latest reading at 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is in a relatively dangerous position.</p><p><b>4) Technical indicators:</b>The S&P 500 index has deviated from its long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020, and as of September 10, the trend deviation rate was as high as 78.20%. The proportion of stocks above the MA250 in the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 indices once again exceeded the warning level before turning downwards in May and March respectively. In the previous three corrections, this technical indicator was about four months ahead of the index correction.</p><p><b>4.3. In terms of macroeconomic characteristics, the current US stock market is different from 2018.</b></p><p><b>From a micro perspective, some of the indicators we are currently monitoring that represent market conditions had risk warnings in 2000 and 2018. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, the current US stock market is facing a very different macroeconomic environment than in 2018.</b></p><p><b>On the fundamentals,</b>Trump's 2018 tax cuts significantly improved the profit environment for businesses. The policy led to the return of profits to U.S. multinational corporations, and the improved earnings of the S&P 500 offset the sharp decline in valuations. Currently, Biden's U.S. jobs plan will implement tax increases on businesses, which will drag down the profits of American companies, a situation more similar to the pressure on corporate profits in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98613e8dd4e8e7028f8bb8b24a22e3e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"1614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of monetary policy</b>In 2018, the Federal Reserve was already in a rate hike cycle. After tightening liquidity as expected, it still had room to maneuver against the backdrop of a global economic slowdown the following year. Currently, on the one hand, with the gradual control of the pandemic, the global economy as a whole is in a recovery zone. On the other hand, the Fed's balance sheet is already very large, which reduces the space for further implementation of loose monetary policy. At the same time, the worsening of the pandemic may also impact market sentiment and suppress risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e9ad7389637055420ba558cb92b261\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. Overall, the current US stock market is more similar to that of 2000.</b></p><p><b>Based on the review of bull and bear market transitions in the history of the US stock market, we believe that the current US stock market has many similarities to those in 2000.</b></p><p><b>First, both bull markets lasted for ten years, and the bubbles were mainly driven by growth stocks, indicating a significant structural characteristic of the bull market.</b>Overall, the 2000 bull market and the current bull market lasted 9.5 years and 12.5 years respectively, with the S&P 500 index rising by 416.98% and 559.04% respectively, ranking first and second in terms of both duration and increase. From an industry perspective, the two rounds of stock market structural characteristics were significant. During the 2000 bull market, Internet-related communication technology companies saw astonishing gains, driving the information technology industry to achieve significant excess returns. In this bull market, the main excess returns in the US stock market were also achieved by the information technology industry and the consumer discretionary industry, represented by FAAMG. From the perspective of individual stocks, both bull markets were structural bull markets driven by a few individual stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97b5906c0efb0c829712e8ab756fbbf\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc8bcb41cff71c0b3654a9b39f59b34\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"885\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, profitability was the main driving factor in both bull markets.</b>During the 2000 bull market, profitability, risk-free interest rate, and risk appetite accounted for 69.79%, 19.72%, and 10.49%, respectively. In this bull market, the three major driving factors accounted for 74.59%, 9.14%, and 16.27%, respectively. Profitability was the core driver in both bull markets, and rising liquidity and risk appetite also played a boosting role.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d80b56e3cc0933b034a1915e8322b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, extremely dovish monetary policy has fueled the inflation of the bubble.</b>At the beginning of his tenure, Alan Greenspan was widely regarded as an Inflation Fighter. However, as time went on, Alan Greenspan's stance became increasingly dovish, and he was described by a Reuters editorial as \"a dove in hawk's clothing\". Even after the market became widely aware of the existence of a bubble in 1996, Alan Greenspan defied public opinion and rejected rate hike, and cut interest rates again when the capital bubble was about to burst during the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis. This series of loose monetary policy stances contributed to the inflation of the bubble during the 2000 bull market. The same situation occurred during this bull market. During the chairmanship of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jeremy Powell, the Federal Reserve's policy stance was also dovish. Four rounds of quantitative easing injected a lot of liquidity into the market, and the valuation of the US stock market was also significantly pushed up during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4097d0112ecaf093fa646def2defd8c4\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84211344cf593ac529aba7befd20da16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, assets in both periods had already experienced valuation bubbles two years ago, but the bubble was further perpetuated by the loose liquidity environment and improved corporate profitability driven by macroeconomic policies.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the S&P 500's deviation from long-term trend values and the Shiller P/E, the asset bubble in the US stock market in 1998 was already relatively serious. At the same time, with the rapid decline in the US Dollar Index during the Southeast Asian crisis, the continued decline in listed company profits, and the marginal tightening of the monetary environment due to rising interest rates, the S&P 500 index experienced a phased correction.</b>In 1998, US stock valuations were already at a high level, and the S&P 500 Shiller P/E broke through the pre-Great Depression level of 32.56 at the end of 1997, setting a new historical high.<b>Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett have also warned of the risk of a bubble in the US stock market.</b>The third quarter of 1997 was the peak of US stock earnings at the time. With the successive release of the 1998 semi-annual reports, US corporate earnings declined marginally for three consecutive quarters, and the market gradually formed a consensus expectation that the performance of listed companies would continue to decline. On the other hand, rising interest rates, coupled with the rapid decline in the US Dollar Index due to the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the marginal tightening of the liquidity environment have also impacted US stock valuations. Due to various negative factors, the S&P 500 index experienced a 19.15% correction between July 17, 1998 and September 4, 1998.<b>However, driven by the liquidity of the Fed's monetary policy shift at that time, the US stock market bubble continued to expand for two years.</b></p><p>Affected by the spread of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the Federal Reserve lowered the target federal funds rate three times in a row between September 29 and November 17, 1998. Stimulated by monetary policy, US corporate profits rebounded again, and coupled with a shift in the liquidity environment, US stocks rose again until the Federal Reserve's proactive rate hike on March 21, 2000, burst the bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb0d40d2fc3ad66b6aab753bea40a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A similar situation occurred in the US stock market this time.</b>In this round of the longest bull market in US stock history, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E once again broke through the extreme value of the Great Depression era in January 2018, reaching 33.31 times.<b>Alan Greenspan also warned again about the valuation risks of US stocks on January 31, 2018.</b>In terms of monetary policy, Jerome Powell, Trump's new nominee on February 5, was not as \"dovish\" as Trump had expected. Instead, he issued an optimistic outlook for the US economy, which raised market rate hike expectations. The U.S. stock market also began to decline rapidly from September 20, 2018, along with the rapid rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, and had fallen by a cumulative 19.87% as of December 24.<b>Similar to 1998, the current US stock market bubble did not burst; instead, it restarted a bull market in 2019.</b>On the one hand, Trump's 2017 tax cuts and jobs bill improved the profit environment for American companies, with the annualized profits of American companies rising rapidly from $112.8 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to $141.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, representing a compound annualized growth rate of 12.13%. On the other hand, with the slowdown in global economic growth, the monetary policies of major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, have also shifted again. In May 2019, Powell delivered a speech clearly stating that he would take action at the appropriate time to boost the weak economy. Coupled with the massive fiscal and monetary policies implemented since the pandemic, the US stock market bubble continued to inflate for two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5236df1c34e6eaf44b9679a37b9ad9ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Currently, overseas liquidity has tightened marginally.</b>M2 growth in the US, Europe, and Japan has shown signs of peaking.<b>Meanwhile, Biden's tariff policy has suppressed the profitability of US-listed companies.</b>The Biden administration's Made in America tax plan and family plan, which simultaneously raise taxes on the wealthy, capital gains, and corporations, will impact U.S. stock market earnings. The impact of the tax increase may be structural, with technology stocks likely to be the first to be affected. The doubling of the GILTI tax rate and the preliminary 15% global common minimum tax rate agreement reached by the G7 may lead to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The tax burden on multinational internet and technology companies, led by those with a large proportion of overseas revenue, has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae34a20e783168efc131f7b09ecb32a\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb4a8dff0f65bccb57513e8e008a182\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, three factors may lead to a bull-bear shift in US stocks: 1) Liquidity:</b>Historically, unexpected tightening of monetary policy is generally the most important factor in the transition between bull and bear markets. Historically, 7 out of 13 rounds of US stock market transitions were broken by monetary policy tightening. The excess liquidity indicator, which is measured by the difference between the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and the year-on-year growth rate of nominal GDP, has changed about 6 months ahead of the P/E of the S&P 500 index. Since May of this year, excess liquidity in the United States has turned from positive to negative. Furthermore, with the US job recovery reaching 75%, the Fed's Taper signal may be released at the September Fed interest rate meeting, and this final statement will determine the final course of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57969b185f1d31d18a6fbda29f911f7f\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f76c0ffa0f994260f203b2e017b012\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Profitability:</b>Historically, the decline in corporate profits caused by tax increases or expectations of tax increases has led to four rounds of bull and bear market cycles. On the one hand, from an economic perspective,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>The Economic Surprises Index, which is about two months ahead of the S&P 500's excess return relative to Treasury Bond, has now fallen sharply to -58.8. On the other hand, looking at the dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 indices over the next 12 months, although both have declined since entering 2021 with the improvement of corporate profit expectations due to economic recovery, they are still at historical highs of 88% and 92% respectively. The profit recovery has been fully reflected in the current stock price, and future tax increases will further suppress future profits. In the medium term, both the renewed economic shock caused by the recurring pandemic and the accelerated implementation of Biden's tariff policies will put further pressure on US stocks, which rely on profitability as their core growth driver, increasing the likelihood of a double whammy in asset prices in the medium term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1057d43dc958261d75e394f43594b50c\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4732f2da4015dce0c89cebc61870b09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) Risk appetite:</b>Bull and bear sentiment indicators constructed based on the results of a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) show that since July of this year, market sentiment has begun to adjust rapidly, and bear sentiment in the US stock market is gradually taking over. Historically, the US stock market has experienced a significant correction after this indicator fell rapidly from a high above 30. Currently, external shocks such as the unexpected spread of the pandemic and trade frictions may also further impact investor sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p><b>05. The synchronized decline in the economic and financial situation between China and the United States led to a weakening impact of external shocks on A-shares.</b></p><p><b>As China's economy became more synchronized with the world after joining the WTO, the crash in US stocks in 2007 had a severe impact on A-shares.</b>The subprime mortgage crisis triggered the S&P 500 index to fall on October 10, 2007, and subsequently, on October 16, A-shares also collapsed rapidly under external shocks. During this round of bear market, the S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 56.78, the largest drop in a bear market since 1942, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell even more than the US stock market, falling from 6214.04 points to 1664.93 points, a cumulative drop of 73.21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db7e1efabd197d91b1b0dc7b9f4204f\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Currently, the economies and finance of China and the United States are declining synchronously, and the impact of external shocks on A-shares is weakening.</b>Unlike the United States' dominant position in the global economy in 2000 and 2008, China's current share of the global economy continues to rise. Coupled with the asynchrony between the Chinese and American economies and monetary cycles, the spillover effects of US market volatility on the global economy will be far less than in the early 20th century and 2008.</p><p><b>On the one hand, China's share of global GDP, measured at purchasing power parity, has now surpassed that of the United States, while the dependence of A-shares on foreign trade has declined significantly.</b>When the subprime mortgage crisis occurred in 2008, China's foreign trade dependence, measured by import and export value/GDP, was as high as over 60%, while as of the first quarter of 2021, it was only 34.30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd4cfaedd63b93d9cb60963d2a01d63\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the other hand, the current financial cycles between China and the United States are out of</b>Unlike in 2008, when my country and the Federal Reserve simultaneously launched a loose monetary policy, my country's current monetary policy and economic recovery are ahead of those overseas and out of sync with the monetary policy of the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b01829398a07e7425bf3fa72ef7307f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Against this backdrop, rising volatility in US stocks will impact A-share sentiment in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A-shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</b></p><p><b>06. Risk Warning</b></p><p>The pandemic in developed economies has exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and the US has raised tariffs more than expected.</p>","source":"lsy1631604778905","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper is getting closer! What is the current position of the US stock market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaper is getting closer! What is the current position of the US stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">东亚前海策略团队</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Investment Points</b></p><p>The US stock market is currently in its longest bull market in history. The S&P 500 index has risen by a staggering 559.04% in its 12-year bull market since 2009, setting a new record for both the duration and cumulative gains. By summarizing and sorting out the macro and micro characteristics of the 13 rounds of bull and bear market transitions in the US stock market since 1928, and comparing them with the present, we aim to provide inspiration for investors:</p><p><b>Overall, the following macroeconomic characteristics exist during the bull-bear market transition in the US stock market: 1) Valuations are at high levels:</b>In 12 of the 13 bull-bear cycles, US stock valuations were above the 80% percentile when the market peaked.<b>2) liquidity tightening:</b>Historically, 10 rounds of bull-bear cycles have occurred against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve proactively adjusting its monetary policy. At the same time, liquidity tightening and the emergence of turning points in US stocks are highly correlated.<b>3) Deteriorating fundamentals:</b>Ten of the 13 rounds of bear markets occurred against the backdrop of declining corporate profits.<b>4) Tax increase:</b>Historically, three rounds of bear markets have occurred against the backdrop of tax increases.<b>5) External shocks:</b>External shocks are not necessarily the main drivers of market declines, but the suppression of investor risk appetite by the nine external shocks that occurred during a bear market can significantly accelerate market declines.</p><p><b>From a micro perspective, US stocks share some common characteristics during bull and bear market transitions: 1) Asset allocation:</b>Households are overweight in stock assets, and foreign capital inflows have accelerated significantly;<b>2) Valuation aspect:</b>P/E and price-to-book ratios are at historical highs, the Tobin Q median is more than 2 standard deviations above the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett Index is more than 1.5 standard deviations above the long-term trend.<b>3) Transaction level:</b>The number of new share issuances has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks is declining, and the ratio of call options to put options is too high;<b>4) Technical specifications:</b>The proportion of stocks in the S&P 500 that deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% and above the MA250 increased significantly.</p><p>Currently, from multiple dimensions such as policy, capital, market characteristics, investor sentiment, and valuations, US stocks are at historically extreme levels. This means that even though major US stock indices may still rise due to the global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the probability of a significant market correction is increasing significantly, and investors need to remain highly cautious about US stocks at this time.</p><p><b>Based on the historical bull and bear market cycles in the US stock market in review, we believe that the current US stock market has many similarities to the dot-com bubble period of 2000.</b>From a micro perspective, some of the current indicators representing market sentiment warned of risks in 2018 and 2000. However, from a macro perspective, the current US stock market is facing a very different macro environment than in 2018, while sharing many common characteristics with 2000: First, both bull markets lasted for ten years, with the bubble mainly driven by growth stocks, and the bull market has significant structural characteristics. Second, profitability was the main driving factor in both bull markets; Third, the extremely dovish monetary policies in both bull markets contributed to the expansion of the bubble; Fourth, assets in both periods had already experienced valuation bubbles two years ago, but the bubble was further perpetuated by the loose liquidity environment and improved corporate profitability driven by macroeconomic policies.</p><p><b>In the medium term, all three factors could lead to the bursting of the US stock market bubble.</b>1) With the better-than-expected recovery in US employment, the Fed's Taper signal may be released at the Fed's September interest rate meeting. The marginal tightening of monetary policy, which the Taper signal indicates, will put significant pressure on US stock valuations. 2) On the other hand, the advancement of Biden's tariff policy will further put pressure on US stock earnings; 3) External shocks such as the unexpected spread of the pandemic may also put further downward pressure on US stocks.</p><p>Unlike the United States' dominant position in the global economy in 2000, China's current share of the global economy is increasing. Coupled with the asynchronous economic and monetary cycles between China and the United States, the bull-bear shift in US stocks may impact A-share sentiment in the short term. However, in the long run, the trend of A-shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The pandemic in developed economies has exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and the US has raised tariffs more than expected.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Since March 2009, the current bull market in US stocks has lasted 12.5 years, with a cumulative increase of 559.04%. Currently, US stock earnings are in a recovery phase, while valuations are already at historical highs. With Taper approaching, there is considerable disagreement in the market about \"where US stocks currently stand\".</p><p>In our previous report, \"The Revelation of the US Stock Market Bull Market (Part 1) - The Opening, Development and End of Past US Stock Market Bull Markets,\" we examined the background and market performance of the 13 bull and bear market cycles in the US stock market since 1928 on review. In this report, we will continue to review and interpret the changes and significance of macro and micro indicators during the past bull and bear market transitions in the US stock market, and further explore the similarities and differences between the current US stock market and the past, in order to provide inspiration for investors.</p><p><b>In the medium term, with the implementation of overseas Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet this year, downward pressure on the domestic economy is gradually emerging, the central bank is promoting credit issuance, and the inflection point of macroeconomic liquidity is approaching. In addition, the G20 summit at the end of October is expected to become an important catalyst for improving market risk sentiment. From the perspective of the A-share market, with the market shift since August, the current market style has become more balanced. Some sectors that have undergone significant adjustments this year have initially shown value for left-side investment.</b></p><p><b>01. The 13 rounds of bull and bear cycles since 1928</b></p><p>According to the definition of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a bear market/bull market typically refers to a market where a broad-based index falls/rises by more than 20% for more than two months. Based on this identification criterion, combined with adjustments to market consensus, we have identified 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions in the U.S. stock market since 1928 (the S&P 500 index was launched in 1957 and traced back to 1928).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922d4bd5c0b314cea05ee300f3542e2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First round:</b>In September 1929, intensifying speculative activity pushed U.S. stock valuations to high levels. the Federal Reserve took the initiative to rate hike to curb speculative activity. Driven by panic, the U.S. stock market experienced the fastest and deepest flash Crash in history. From October 23 to October 29 of the same year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 29.54%, known as the Great Crash. Subsequently, as economic fundamentals continued to deteriorate, the market also fell rapidly, with the S&P 500 index falling by a cumulative 86.16% by July 1932.</p><p><b>Second round:</b>In March 1937, the premature withdrawal of policies during the post-Great Depression recovery led to another recession in the U.S. economy. The second deterioration in fundamentals severely damaged the confidence of American investors, and the market turned downward again. The S&P 500 index remained sluggish under the shadow of World War II until April 1942, with a cumulative drop of 59.99%.</p><p><b>Third round:</b>In May 1946, the United States fell into severe inflation after the end of World War II, with the lifting of wartime price controls and the increase in the minimum wage brought about by the power of unions after veterans returned to the labor market. A bear market also began against the backdrop of monetary tightening caused by inflation. The market remained sluggish amidst volatility until the economy returned to normal in 1950, when the bull market resumed. During this period, the S&P 500 fell by a cumulative 29.61%.</p><p><b>Fourth round:</b>In August 1956, against the backdrop of a continued boom in the U.S. economy and a slight rise in inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve once again implemented a tight monetary policy. This rate hike not only impacted market liquidity, but also completely shattered already fragile market sentiment. The S&P 500 index has fallen 21.63% in a year.</p><p><b>Fifth round:</b>In December 1961, after a four-year bull market, the Shiller P/E of the S&P 500 hit a new high since June 1930, and the valuation of US stocks reached a considerable high level. The anxiety caused by overvaluation dominated this bear market, and the S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 27.97%, known as the \"Kennedy slide\".</p><p><b>Sixth round:</b>In April 1966, against the backdrop of the outbreak of the Vietnam War, inflationary pressures resurfaced in the United States. The Federal Reserve's rate hike policy, constrained by the 5.5% deposit interest rate cap (Regulation Q), triggered a Credit Crunch in the commercial banking system. The reluctance of commercial banks to lend eventually triggered the Minsky Moment, and the S&P 500 index also experienced a rapid decline during this period. By October 1996, the S&P 500 had fallen rapidly by 22.18% during this brief period of bear market.</p><p><b>Seventh round:</b>In December 1968, the inflation problem escalated again, and the Federal Reserve quickly tightened liquidity to prevent further deterioration of inflation. After initial fluctuations, the market began to decline rapidly from June 1969 until the marginal easing of monetary policy in 1970, which ended the downward trend. By May 1970, the S&P 500 index had fallen by a cumulative 36.06%.</p><p><b>Round 8:</b>In January 1973, against the backdrop of stagflation, the Bretton Woods collapse, Watergate, and the outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War occurred one after another. The Black Swan event and the tightening of liquidity during the first oil crisis severely impacted the US capital market. The S&P 500 index fell sharply between January 1973 and October 1974, with a cumulative drop of 48.2%.</p><p><b>Round 9:</b>In November 1980, the U.S. economy fell into recession again. The decline in corporate profits amid high interest rates and stagflation triggered this bear market. At the same time, Paul Volcker's resolute tightening monetary policy to curb inflation and the outbreak of the Fifth Middle East War in June 1982 once again impacted the market. The U.S. stock market reversed its positive trend in the third quarter of 1981 and fell sharply again, with a drop of 27.05% by August 1982.</p><p><b>Round 10:</b>In August 1987, the market ended a five-year bull market with a gain of 228.81%. The rapid rise led to selling pressure on US stocks. Under the influence of reduced tax incentives and the unexpectedly announced high trade deficit, US stocks experienced their largest single-day plunge since the 20th century. On October 19, the S&P 500 plummeted 20.5%, known as \"Black Monday\". By December of the same year, the S&P 500 had fallen by a cumulative 33.51%.</p><p><b>Round 11:</b>In July 1990, the Kuwait War triggered the third oil crisis, causing oil prices to rise again. Against the backdrop of inflation expectations pushing up risk-free yields and declining corporate profits due to the economic recession, the S&P 500 index fell rapidly by 19.92% in just three months.</p><p><b>Round 12:</b>In March 2000, the bursting of the dot-com bubble ended a decade-long bull market in the U.S. stock market. Previously, driven by strong economic growth and stable inflation, the S&P 500 index had surged by more than 416.98% over the past decade, and the bubble in US stocks had reached an unprecedented level. As the Federal Reserve's rate hike broke through the positive feedback cycle in a long-term low-interest-rate environment, the profit growth rate of listed companies declined rapidly. Subsequently, shocks such as the \"Enron incident\" in March 2001 further pushed market pessimism to its lowest point. The bear market continued until October 2002, when the S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 49.15%.</p><p><b>Thirteenth round:</b>In October 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis, leading to a severe economic recession. As the crisis rapidly deepened, the deterioration of fundamentals and the collapse of investor confidence occurred almost simultaneously, triggering this round of bear market. The continued deterioration of corporate profits and the impact of the successive bankruptcies of companies such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers on the market drove US stocks down. As of March 2009, the S&P 500 index had fallen by 56.78%, the largest drop in a bear market since 1942.</p><p><b>02. Macroeconomic characteristics of the US stock market during the bull-bear shift</b></p><p><b>Overall, in terms of macroeconomic characteristics, the main factors triggering the bull-bear shift in the 13 rounds of the US stock market are as follows: 1) Valuations are at a high level; 2) liquidity tightening; 3) Deteriorating fundamentals; 4) Expectations of tax increases and other factors suppressing profits; 5) Other external shocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b20864f4239e9df20be4c528a0daa7b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.1. Valuations are high</b></p><p>In the history of the U.S. stock market, except for the bear market between 1980 and 1982 when the S&P 500 P/E was at a low level, the valuation of the U.S. stock market was above the 80% historical percentile when the other 12 market peaks occurred. Among them, 8 times were above the 90% historical percentile. The P/E of the S&P 500 exceeded the 95% historical percentile during the Great Depression of 1929, the Kennedy crash of 1961, the flash crash of 1966, and the dot-com bubble of 2000.</p><p>The exceptional bear market of 1980-1982 occurred in a stagflationary environment, dominated by declining corporate profits, and the market fell further under the impact of liquidity tightening and the fifth Middle East war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb3c95f6f87d1bdcfe7113b3de3e350\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. liquidity tightening</b></p><p><b>Historically, 12 of the 13 bull-bear cycles have been triggered by a tightening of the liquidity environment, with 9 of them involving the Federal Reserve proactively adjusting the discount rate or Federal Funds rate.</b></p><p>Of the other three rounds, 1) When the bear market occurred in 1937, the U.S. Treasury decided to offset gold inflows to reduce excess reserves. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's policy of doubling the reserve requirement ratio, the previously strong monetary expansion came to an abrupt end under the two-way tightening of the base money and the money multiplier. The marginal tightening of liquidity also impacted the market. 2) When the bear market began in 1990, although the Federal Reserve maintained monetary policy stability and Federal Funds rate remained in a high-level fluctuation pattern, inflation expectations pushed up the risk-free rate, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond rose rapidly from 8.44% on July 17 to 8.92% on October 11. 3) During the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, although Ben Bernanke creatively introduced various financial instruments to inject liquidity into the market, the easing of macro liquidity failed to effectively improve the market's micro liquidity, and the rapid widening of credit spreads put enormous pressure on the prices of risky assets.</p><p>The only exception was the Kennedy Depression of 1961. During this downturn, the U.S. economy was stable, corporate profits were healthy, and interest rates remained relatively stable. According to research by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), changes in investor sentiment led to this market downturn.</p><p><b>At the same time, there is a high correlation between liquidity tightening and the turning point of US stocks.</b>Of the 13 rounds of bull and bear market cycles, 8 occurred in the same month as liquidity tightening, while the capital market turning points of the Great Depression of 1929 and the flash crash of 1966 were two months later than the implementation of the rate hike policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cea7e94799283b9cbc2e7bf89c040de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec3c9cf3bd9b5bc0da7cdc2e03caa548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.3. Deteriorating fundamentals</b></p><p>In the history of the US stock market, 10 out of 13 bull-bear cycles have occurred against the backdrop of declining corporate profits, with only three exceptions.</p><p>Of the three exceptional rounds, in the bear markets of 1961 and 1973, in a stagflationary environment caused by rising commodity prices, rising prices improved the profitability of upstream companies. During these two periods, US stock market profitability remained relatively good, driven by the rise in the energy sector. The occurrence of \"Black Monday\" in 1987 was more driven by investor panic. At that time, algorithmic trading, which was still in its infancy, and portfolio insurance, an automated trading strategy aimed at hedging the market risk of stock portfolios by shorting stock index futures, had not yet adapted to the flash crash of the market. The decline in stock prices activated more stop-loss orders for automated trading, which further deepened the decline in stock prices, and the market continued to fall in this a vicious circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8345030c65e43922663c02bd695f8100\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.4. Expectations of tax increases and other earnings suppression</b></p><p>Since 1950, the U.S. corporate tax rate has been lowered multiple times, with only one significant increase occurring in 1968. This tax increase, along with tightening liquidity, caused a bear market in which the S&P 500 index fell by 36.06% between 1968 and 1971.</p><p>In addition, during the bear market of 1937, Roosevelt, who was relatively cautious about fiscal deficits, implemented an austerity fiscal policy to cut federal spending in order to curb government spending and balance the budget, and implemented a tax policy against the backdrop of the impending outbreak of World War II in 1940. In 1980, then-US President<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The Crude Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act of 1980 was signed, which proposed to impose a 50% windfall profits tax on crude oil production companies. This measure suppressed the production enthusiasm of oil companies, led to a rapid increase in the effective corporate tax rate, and ultimately severely damaged the profitability of US-listed companies in the context of declining profits in the energy sector and high financing costs. Furthermore, during the \"Kennedy Drop\" of 1961, although no substantial tax increases were implemented, Kennedy publicly criticized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">American Steel</a>This has raised market concerns about the introduction of measures to suppress large enterprises, leading to disturbances such as \"tax increases\" or related measures that suppress corporate profit expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d456d1850581040caca03dbe752ac0\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.5. external shock</b></p><p>As a relatively mature capital market, US stocks have historically had a relatively strong ability to withstand risks. For example, external shocks such as the 1998 Asia-Pacific financial crisis and the 2011 European debt crisis only brought about a temporary correction in US stock asset prices and did not trigger a bear market. However, there have been four external shocks in history that have suppressed investors' risk appetite, accelerating market declines and deepening the decline in US stocks during bear markets.</p><p>In July 1956, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of the Suez Canal, which caused a great shock in European and American countries and also affected the sentiment of US stock investors.</p><p>In April 1973, the Watergate scandal intensified, and the uncertainty brought about by the turmoil also impacted the capital market. The outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War on October 6 further intensified external shocks, causing oil prices to soar and market sentiment to deteriorate further.</p><p>On June 6, 1982, the fifth Middle East war broke out, and the market once again turned to concerns about imported inflation. On August 12 of the same year, Mexico's finance minister officially informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the U.S. government that it was unable to repay $80 billion in foreign debt, thus triggering the Latin American debt crisis. The succession of external shocks once again affected the US stock market, which reversed its improving trend in the third quarter of 1981 and fell sharply again.</p><p>The Kuwait War in August 1990 triggered the third oil crisis, causing oil prices to rise again. Investors were particularly worried about this crisis after experiencing the first two oil crises in the 1970s, and the rising risk premium also put downward pressure on stock prices.</p><p><b>03. Microscopic characteristics of the US stock market during the bull-bear shift</b></p><p><b>Historically, US stocks have shared some common characteristics during bull and bear market transitions: 1) Asset allocation: households overweight stock assets and foreign capital inflows accelerate significantly; 2) Valuation aspect: P/E and price-to-book ratios are high, the median of Tobin Q is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations; 3) Trading aspects: New share issuance has increased significantly, market leverage is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the ratio of call options to put options is too high; 4) In terms of technical indicators: The proportion of stocks in the S&P 500 deviating from the long-term trend by more than 50% and above the MA250 has increased significantly.</b></p><p><b>3.1. asset allocation level</b></p><p><b>1) Household overweight equity assets</b></p><p><b>From an asset allocation perspective, overweight family equity assets often foreshadow the arrival of risk, and the market risk is relatively high when this allocation ratio exceeds 30%.</b>On the one hand, this increase in allocation reflects the rapid increase in market investor participation, which is often a harbinger of the later stages of a bull market; On the other hand, households overallocating risky assets often overdraw the potential for subsequent incremental funds to enter the market. Once macro liquidity is adjusted, it will be difficult for the market to find incremental funds at the micro level to alleviate the pressure of liquidity tightening. Historically, this indicator exceeded 30% during the 1966 \"flash crash,\" the 2000 \"dot-com bubble,\" and the bear market during the 2007 financial crisis. Currently, investor allocation sentiment in the United States is rising, with households allocating as much as 40.25% of their shares to equity, surpassing the historical high of 38.25% during the dot-com bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1196cc373f0817792da6960f339c9a62\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Foreign capital inflows have accelerated significantly.</b></p><p><b>Similarly, a rapid influx of foreign capital is usually a prominent feature of the later stages of a bull market.</b>Driven by domestic preference, foreign capital often tends to invest in domestic risky assets, only accelerating its inflow in the later stages of a bull market due to the continued rise in risky assets in US stocks. During this period, the market risk is relatively high. This indicator successfully confirmed the occurrence of three rounds of bull-bear transitions: the flash crash of \"Black Friday\" in 1987, the inflation of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and the crash caused by the spread of the financial crisis in 2007. It also monitored the market correction in April 2010. From the perspective of leading and lagging relationships, with the strengthening of the learning effect on US stocks, foreign capital flows have gradually shifted from lagging behind the market in early 2000 to leading the market in recent years. During Black Friday and the dot-com bubble, foreign capital lagged behind the market by 3 months and 8 months, respectively. During the financial crisis, foreign capital outflows were about 2 months ahead of the S&P 500 correction. In the 2010 US stock market correction, foreign capital also seemed to be ahead for about 2 months. Foreign capital inflows into US stocks are accelerating again, with foreign capital accounting for as much as 0.7% of the market capitalization in a single month. However, a turning point occurred at the end of June, with foreign capital beginning to shift out of the US stock market.  </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86abb4aaec43194d41d3b67e20f86a25\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.2. VALUATION</b></p><p><b>1) P/E and price-to-book ratio are high.</b></p><p><b>P/E is a classic indicator for measuring asset value, reflecting the number of years it takes to recoup a stock investment at current profits. Historically, when this indicator is higher than the historical 95th percentile, the market is at greater risk.</b>In 1929, 1961, 1966, and 2000, this indicator reached 32.56, 21.25, 22.66, and 44.19 respectively, all higher than the historical 95th percentile. 2018, the only year without a bear market, also saw a correction of 19.87%. P/E has once again broken through the 95th percentile, surpassing the second-highest peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, reaching a staggering 37.86 times. Meanwhile, the median P/E of the S&P 500 constituent stocks reached as high as 25.02 times, breaking through the historical peak of 22.76 times during the dot-com bubble era and reaching a historical extreme since 1990.</p><p>On the other hand, in terms of price-to-book ratio, the S&P 500's price-to-book ratio peaked at 5.04 times at the end of 1999, on the eve of the bursting of the dot-com bubble. This indicator is currently approaching its historical high again, reaching 4.59 times, a new high since October 2000. The median price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 constituent stocks is also at its historical high since 1990.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72dfb9cced8690fc40f868b3d87c399\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f88748b7c4835d402b76a84849485c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The median Tobin Q of the S&P 500 is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average.</b></p><p><b>Tobin Q is the ratio between the market value of a physical asset and its replacement value. When the Tobin Q of the entire market is too much above parity, investors may be overly optimistic about future asset returns. Since this indicator is subject to long-term changes due to the trend changes in the proportion of heavy assets of enterprises, we constructed a risk level warning indicator based on 2 standard deviations from the moving average of the previous 7 years to eliminate the trend impact.</b>Historically, this indicator has been well corroborated by the dot-com bubble of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2007. Although no systemic risk occurred after the indicator warned of risks in April 2015, the S&P 500 index subsequently experienced a sharp correction of 14.16%. In terms of its leading-lagging relationship with US stocks, this indicator has a certain lead. The inflection points of the Tobin Q indicator during the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2007 financial crisis were 8 months and 4 months ahead of the index inflection point, respectively, and the inflection point in 2015 was also 3 months ahead of the S&P 500 index. Currently, the Tobin Q value has once again exceeded the historical mean by more than 2 standard deviations since April 2021, and a turning point began in early August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The Buffett Index exceeds the long-term trend by 2 standard deviations.</b></p><p><b>The Buffett Index measures the ratio of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to GDP, which Buffett calls \"the best single measure of valuation levels at any given moment.\" As the proportion of direct financing increases, this value also shows a long-term upward trend. Looking at the trend deviation after removing the trend, the market often faces significant risk when the trend deviation of this indicator exceeds the mean by more than two standard deviations.</b>(Note: This index is the ratio of the total market capitalization of US stocks to GDP. The GDP data comes from BEA, while the total market capitalization of US stocks refers to the CMV algorithm. Before 1970, it uses the company equity statistics of the Federal Reserve, and after 1970, it uses the total market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 index. The total market capitalization of the two different calibers is adjusted continuously.)</p><p>Historically, the Buffett Index reached highs of more than one standard deviation in 1966 and 1968, and before the dot-com bubble in 2000, it reached two standard deviations above the mean. Subsequently, the market experienced a bull-bear cycle. During this bull market, the market reached one and two standard deviations above the mean in 2015 and 2018, respectively, after which the market experienced a correction of 14.16% and 19.87%, respectively. The Buffett Index has now broken through the long-term trend by more than 3 standard deviations and is at its historical extreme.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9360a59851a33d7b6d923ce531f01a\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.3. Transaction level</b></p><p><b>1) New share issuance has increased significantly.</b></p><p><b>The volume of IPOs typically affects stock prices in two ways. On the one hand, when market investors generally have a high risk appetite, initial public offerings are more likely to be oversubscribed. However, oversubscribed funds are often not used reasonably by companies, thus exacerbating the risk of collapse of oversubscribed stocks. During periods of extreme IPO activity, systemic risks can easily arise; On the other hand, new share issuances also have a siphoning effect on the market in terms of micro-liquidity, which can easily suppress the rise in stock prices.</b>Historically, since 2000, there have been 643 IPOs in a single year during the dot-com bubble. The number of new share issuances in the US stock market has once again exceeded 600, with 788 issuances as of September 12, 2021, a new high since 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5a37941657256518b0b509359a79f9\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Margin liabilities exceed the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations.</b></p><p><b>The scale of margin liabilities reflects the level of leverage in market transactions. Historically, when the leverage ratio is too high, the market often accumulates significant potential risks. Once the index begins to decline, it is easy to trigger systemic risks due to the chain reaction of leveraged funds cutting losses.</b>During the dot-com bubble in 2000 and before the global financial crisis in 2007, the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market exceeded the trend value by more than two standard deviations. Among them, during the dot-com bubble of 2000, this indicator and the S&P 500 reached a turning point at the same time; During the 2007 financial crisis, this indicator was about three months ahead of the index's inflection point. Starting in March 2021, margin liabilities in the U.S. stock market once again significantly exceeded the trend value by more than two standard deviations, and a turning point began to appear at the end of June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The proportion of low-priced stocks declined.</b></p><p><b>Historically, there has often been a rally in low-priced stocks (Penny stocks below $5) in the later stages of a bull market and on the eve of risk asset adjustments. Against the backdrop of an influx of marginal investors from outside the market, low-priced stocks often achieve excess returns.</b>Overall, the cumulative market risk is relatively greater when the proportion of low-priced stocks is less than 5%. This indicator was confirmed during the 2007 bear market, the 19.15% correction during the 2011 European debt crisis, the 12.08% correction in August 2015, and the 19.87% correction in 2018. As of September 12, this indicator had once again broken through the 5% threshold, with a reading of 4.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accb19c41170e09acfed15d4ad569d0c\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4) The proportion of call options/put options in US stocks is too high.</b></p><p><b>The ratio of call options to put options measures the strength of bullish sentiment compared to bearish sentiment in the US stock market, and often rises to over 200% at the end of a bull market when investor sentiment reaches its peak.</b>Looking at the history of US stocks since 1991, this indicator once exceeded 200% during the dot-com bubble driven by irrational sentiment in 2000, reaching an extreme point of 220%. This indicator has been rising sharply since the resumption of QE in 2020 against the backdrop of the pandemic. The latest reading is 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is in a relatively dangerous position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4974d62d91c36134dabdc00154f3d30e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.4. technical aspects</b></p><p><b>1) The S&P 500 index deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%.</b></p><p><b>Asset prices have an inherent tendency to fluctuate around trend values, so when the stock index deviates from the trend value for a long time, a \"mean regression\" often occurs. Historically, the market has undergone a significant correction when the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 deviates from its long-term trend by more than 50%.</b>At the turning point of the bull market in 1937, the S&P 500's trend deviation reached 65.64%; At the turning points in 1966 and 1968, the index reached 62.21% and 56.53%, respectively; Before the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, the index reached a historical peak of 79.98%. The S&P 500 has been deviating from its long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020. As of September 10, the trend deviation rate was as high as 78.20%, which is close to the historical peak on the eve of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8691c9ea65ad53e46fa36a2ac90237e2\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The proportion of stocks above MA250 increased significantly.</b></p><p><b>Historically, when most individual stocks in the stock market are at their long-term levels...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">trend line</a>At the above times, the market often faces a significant risk of correction.</b>Looking at the proportion of S&P 500 and Russell 3000 constituent stocks with an MA250 or higher, in January 1998, March 2010, and April 2011, the proportion of S&P 500 constituent stocks with an MA250 or higher exceeded 90%, while the proportion of Russell 3000 constituent stocks with an MA250 or higher exceeded 80%. The market experienced a correction of more than 15% in all three rounds, indicating that the inflection point was 6 months, 2 months, and 3 months ahead of the market, respectively. Both indicators have exceeded the warning values of 90% and 80% again since January 2021, with the turning points occurring in May 2021 and March 2021, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c128791cae417bda367438076f79ffc2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>04. The current US stock market environment is more similar to 2000.</b></p><p><b>4.1. Main characteristics of this bull market</b></p><p><b>The US stock market is currently in its 14th bull market since 1928.</b>This bull market, which began on March 10, 2009, has lasted 12.5 years and is the longest bull market in US stock history. The previous longest bull market was the dot-com bubble from October 12, 1990 to March 24, 2000, which spanned 9.5 years. Meanwhile, this bull market is also the largest in history. The 12-year slow bull market has led to a cumulative increase of 559.04% in US stocks, which also surpasses the 416.98% increase during the dot-com bubble and the 323.36% increase during the economic recovery after the Great Depression from July 1932 to March 1937.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddff39f22ac7ffbdcce7fc5d4fbcbeff\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10ebdb232ba20988d91772362e926c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Following the end of the 2008 global financial crisis, market confidence gradually recovered, driven by strong stimulus policies such as quantitative easing, and the US stock market returned to a bull market in March 2009. This bull market roughly presents a four-stage growth trend.</p><p><b>Phase 1: March 2009 to July 2011 (599 trading days, 98.81% increase).</b>During this period, the economic bottom out, loose liquidity, economic recovery, and restored investor confidence jointly drove the market upward trend.</p><p><b>Phase 2: November 2012 to August 2015 (691 trading days, an increase of 55.35%).</b>European debt crisis<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>After the negative factors such as huge losses and the fiscal cliff have all subsided, the US economy has returned to a track of moderate growth. During this period, the market rose moderately, with biotechnology companies performing exceptionally well, driving the Nasdaq index to quickly surpass the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><b>Phase 3: July 2016 to September 2018 (558 trading days, an increase of 39.53%).</b>After a year of market volatility and adjustment due to the exit of QE and the Federal Reserve's rate hike, Trump's tax cuts and fiscal stimulus policies after taking office constituted the main drivers for the resurgence of US stocks. Stimulated by tax cuts and fiscal policies, US corporate profits continued to grow during this period, driving the US stock market to continue its slow bull run, with the performance and market performance of technology stocks being particularly outstanding.</p><p><b>Phase 4: January 2019 to present (683 trading days, an increase of 89.64%).</b>After the market experienced a rapid correction in the fourth quarter of 2018 due to the surge in Treasury Bond yields, the shift in macroeconomic liquidity against the backdrop of the global economic recession in 2019 drove this round of market rally. During this period, the market has been on an upward trend since the impact of the pandemic in early 2020. During this period, the role of valuation factors increased significantly, especially after the restart of quantitative easing policies in response to the pandemic in 2020. The rise in valuations driven by loose liquidity led to a rapid rise in the Nasdaq index, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1291e241975d6d0ac900d368b10f29\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the current US stock market bull market, the main characteristics are as follows:</p><p><b>1) The current bull market in large-cap US stocks is driven by both earnings and valuation, while small-cap stocks measured by the Russell 2000 are mainly driven by earnings alone.</b>Since 2009, 64.13% of the S&P 500's current gains have been driven by earnings, 9.45% by a decline in risk-free interest rates, and 26.42% by risk appetite. Profitability is the most core driving factor in this bull market. In 2019-2020, the valuation-driven effect of loose liquidity increased significantly, with loose liquidity contributing 64.08% and 225.14% to market gains in 2019-2020, respectively. Looking at small-cap stocks measured by the Russell 2000 index, earnings factors contributed 80.22% of the gains during this bull market, while valuation factors influenced 19.78%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4642e47ffe5547e7bfe92be55bca3de\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77e5707664b1cf8b1305ea7f9ea6855\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2) Technology and internet companies performed particularly well.</b>Looking at the 11 industries categorized by the S&P 500 GICS, information technology companies have performed particularly well in this bull market, ranking first among all industries with a gain of 1268.85%, representing an excess return of 712.32% compared to the S&P 500. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Consumer discretionary sectors, represented by sectors such as these, also performed outstandingly, achieving an excess return of 466.83% compared to the S&P 500 index. Technology stocks performed most strongly on the FAAMG. Based on market capitalization, the five tech and internet giants rose by a total of 3,906% during this period, far exceeding the gains and losses of the three major stock indices. Judging from the changes in EPS, profitability played the most important role in FAAMG's performance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98440f7788f3df3c7e9d71113053883a\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d8e6fc7067afabcdb7e6b508c56e3b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>3) The significant impact of share buybacks by listed companies on the market is another prominent feature of this bull market.</b>During this bull market, share buybacks by listed companies played a significant role. In terms of the scale of buybacks, at the beginning of this bull market, the scale of buybacks announced in the second quarter of 2009 was only US$32.58 billion. However, by the first quarter of 2019, the scale of buybacks had expanded to US$204.252 billion and remained above US$150 billion for many quarters. Buybacks have a significant boosting effect on stock prices. On the one hand, buybacks reduce a company's share capital, which can directly improve the company's earnings per share and return on net assets. On the other hand, by reducing the weighted average cost of capital, they can drive the stock price up from the perspective of performance. On the other hand, share buybacks can improve corporate governance by optimizing the equity structure; Finally, the incremental demand provided by stock buybacks and the positive signals released also provide significant support for stock prices. Based on this, share buybacks during this bull market have significantly boosted EPS and stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6deec43db8c4c89438918dcffe777a\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. In terms of micro indicators, where does the US stock market currently stand?</b></p><p>From multiple perspectives including policy, capital, market characteristics, market sentiment, and valuation, we...<b>It is believed that the current US stock market exhibits some common characteristics of historical bull and bear market transitions. This means that even if major US stock indices still have the potential to rise amid the global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the market's upside potential is relatively limited, and investing in US stocks at this time requires caution.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of various micro-indicators representing market conditions:</b></p><p><b>1) Currently, among the asset allocation indicators:</b>Currently, investor allocation sentiment in the United States is rising, with households allocating as much as 40.25% to stocks, surpassing the historical high of 36.98% during the dot-com bubble. Regarding foreign capital, the net inflow of foreign capital accounted for as much as 0.7% of the market capitalization in June, a new high in nearly 10 years. This marked a turning point. Previously, during the 2007 financial crisis and the 2010 market correction, this turning point was about two months ahead of the index.</p><p><b>2) Among the indicators reflecting the reasonableness of the valuation:</b>P/E has once again broken through the 95th percentile, surpassing the second-highest historical peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time by a staggering 37.86 times; The median P/E of the S&P 500 constituent stocks reached its historical extreme; The price-to-book ratio also exceeded 4 times again, reaching a new high since 2000; The Tobin Q value and the Buffett Index broke through the historical average and historical trend values by more than 2 and 3 standard deviations, respectively, both remaining at historical extremes.</p><p><b>3) Among the indicators at the transaction level:</b>The number of new share issuances in the US stock market has once again exceeded 600, with 788 issuances as of August 20, 2021, a new high since 2000; As of the end of May 2021, the inflection point in the US stock market occurred in June after margin liabilities far exceeded the trend value by more than two standard deviations. During the 2007 financial crisis, this indicator was about three months ahead of the index inflection point. The proportion of low-priced stocks in the Russell 3000 index has once again reached the critical level of 5%; The ratio of call options to put options has risen sharply since the resumption of QE in 2020 against the backdrop of the pandemic, with the latest reading at 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is in a relatively dangerous position.</p><p><b>4) Technical indicators:</b>The S&P 500 index has deviated from its long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020, and as of September 10, the trend deviation rate was as high as 78.20%. The proportion of stocks above the MA250 in the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 indices once again exceeded the warning level before turning downwards in May and March respectively. In the previous three corrections, this technical indicator was about four months ahead of the index correction.</p><p><b>4.3. In terms of macroeconomic characteristics, the current US stock market is different from 2018.</b></p><p><b>From a micro perspective, some of the indicators we are currently monitoring that represent market conditions had risk warnings in 2000 and 2018. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, the current US stock market is facing a very different macroeconomic environment than in 2018.</b></p><p><b>On the fundamentals,</b>Trump's 2018 tax cuts significantly improved the profit environment for businesses. The policy led to the return of profits to U.S. multinational corporations, and the improved earnings of the S&P 500 offset the sharp decline in valuations. Currently, Biden's U.S. jobs plan will implement tax increases on businesses, which will drag down the profits of American companies, a situation more similar to the pressure on corporate profits in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98613e8dd4e8e7028f8bb8b24a22e3e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"1614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of monetary policy</b>In 2018, the Federal Reserve was already in a rate hike cycle. After tightening liquidity as expected, it still had room to maneuver against the backdrop of a global economic slowdown the following year. Currently, on the one hand, with the gradual control of the pandemic, the global economy as a whole is in a recovery zone. On the other hand, the Fed's balance sheet is already very large, which reduces the space for further implementation of loose monetary policy. At the same time, the worsening of the pandemic may also impact market sentiment and suppress risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e9ad7389637055420ba558cb92b261\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. Overall, the current US stock market is more similar to that of 2000.</b></p><p><b>Based on the review of bull and bear market transitions in the history of the US stock market, we believe that the current US stock market has many similarities to those in 2000.</b></p><p><b>First, both bull markets lasted for ten years, and the bubbles were mainly driven by growth stocks, indicating a significant structural characteristic of the bull market.</b>Overall, the 2000 bull market and the current bull market lasted 9.5 years and 12.5 years respectively, with the S&P 500 index rising by 416.98% and 559.04% respectively, ranking first and second in terms of both duration and increase. From an industry perspective, the two rounds of stock market structural characteristics were significant. During the 2000 bull market, Internet-related communication technology companies saw astonishing gains, driving the information technology industry to achieve significant excess returns. In this bull market, the main excess returns in the US stock market were also achieved by the information technology industry and the consumer discretionary industry, represented by FAAMG. From the perspective of individual stocks, both bull markets were structural bull markets driven by a few individual stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97b5906c0efb0c829712e8ab756fbbf\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc8bcb41cff71c0b3654a9b39f59b34\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"885\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, profitability was the main driving factor in both bull markets.</b>During the 2000 bull market, profitability, risk-free interest rate, and risk appetite accounted for 69.79%, 19.72%, and 10.49%, respectively. In this bull market, the three major driving factors accounted for 74.59%, 9.14%, and 16.27%, respectively. Profitability was the core driver in both bull markets, and rising liquidity and risk appetite also played a boosting role.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d80b56e3cc0933b034a1915e8322b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, extremely dovish monetary policy has fueled the inflation of the bubble.</b>At the beginning of his tenure, Alan Greenspan was widely regarded as an Inflation Fighter. However, as time went on, Alan Greenspan's stance became increasingly dovish, and he was described by a Reuters editorial as \"a dove in hawk's clothing\". Even after the market became widely aware of the existence of a bubble in 1996, Alan Greenspan defied public opinion and rejected rate hike, and cut interest rates again when the capital bubble was about to burst during the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis. This series of loose monetary policy stances contributed to the inflation of the bubble during the 2000 bull market. The same situation occurred during this bull market. During the chairmanship of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jeremy Powell, the Federal Reserve's policy stance was also dovish. Four rounds of quantitative easing injected a lot of liquidity into the market, and the valuation of the US stock market was also significantly pushed up during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4097d0112ecaf093fa646def2defd8c4\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84211344cf593ac529aba7befd20da16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, assets in both periods had already experienced valuation bubbles two years ago, but the bubble was further perpetuated by the loose liquidity environment and improved corporate profitability driven by macroeconomic policies.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the S&P 500's deviation from long-term trend values and the Shiller P/E, the asset bubble in the US stock market in 1998 was already relatively serious. At the same time, with the rapid decline in the US Dollar Index during the Southeast Asian crisis, the continued decline in listed company profits, and the marginal tightening of the monetary environment due to rising interest rates, the S&P 500 index experienced a phased correction.</b>In 1998, US stock valuations were already at a high level, and the S&P 500 Shiller P/E broke through the pre-Great Depression level of 32.56 at the end of 1997, setting a new historical high.<b>Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett have also warned of the risk of a bubble in the US stock market.</b>The third quarter of 1997 was the peak of US stock earnings at the time. With the successive release of the 1998 semi-annual reports, US corporate earnings declined marginally for three consecutive quarters, and the market gradually formed a consensus expectation that the performance of listed companies would continue to decline. On the other hand, rising interest rates, coupled with the rapid decline in the US Dollar Index due to the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the marginal tightening of the liquidity environment have also impacted US stock valuations. Due to various negative factors, the S&P 500 index experienced a 19.15% correction between July 17, 1998 and September 4, 1998.<b>However, driven by the liquidity of the Fed's monetary policy shift at that time, the US stock market bubble continued to expand for two years.</b></p><p>Affected by the spread of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the Federal Reserve lowered the target federal funds rate three times in a row between September 29 and November 17, 1998. Stimulated by monetary policy, US corporate profits rebounded again, and coupled with a shift in the liquidity environment, US stocks rose again until the Federal Reserve's proactive rate hike on March 21, 2000, burst the bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb0d40d2fc3ad66b6aab753bea40a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A similar situation occurred in the US stock market this time.</b>In this round of the longest bull market in US stock history, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E once again broke through the extreme value of the Great Depression era in January 2018, reaching 33.31 times.<b>Alan Greenspan also warned again about the valuation risks of US stocks on January 31, 2018.</b>In terms of monetary policy, Jerome Powell, Trump's new nominee on February 5, was not as \"dovish\" as Trump had expected. Instead, he issued an optimistic outlook for the US economy, which raised market rate hike expectations. The U.S. stock market also began to decline rapidly from September 20, 2018, along with the rapid rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, and had fallen by a cumulative 19.87% as of December 24.<b>Similar to 1998, the current US stock market bubble did not burst; instead, it restarted a bull market in 2019.</b>On the one hand, Trump's 2017 tax cuts and jobs bill improved the profit environment for American companies, with the annualized profits of American companies rising rapidly from $112.8 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to $141.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, representing a compound annualized growth rate of 12.13%. On the other hand, with the slowdown in global economic growth, the monetary policies of major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, have also shifted again. In May 2019, Powell delivered a speech clearly stating that he would take action at the appropriate time to boost the weak economy. Coupled with the massive fiscal and monetary policies implemented since the pandemic, the US stock market bubble continued to inflate for two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5236df1c34e6eaf44b9679a37b9ad9ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Currently, overseas liquidity has tightened marginally.</b>M2 growth in the US, Europe, and Japan has shown signs of peaking.<b>Meanwhile, Biden's tariff policy has suppressed the profitability of US-listed companies.</b>The Biden administration's Made in America tax plan and family plan, which simultaneously raise taxes on the wealthy, capital gains, and corporations, will impact U.S. stock market earnings. The impact of the tax increase may be structural, with technology stocks likely to be the first to be affected. The doubling of the GILTI tax rate and the preliminary 15% global common minimum tax rate agreement reached by the G7 may lead to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The tax burden on multinational internet and technology companies, led by those with a large proportion of overseas revenue, has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae34a20e783168efc131f7b09ecb32a\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb4a8dff0f65bccb57513e8e008a182\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, three factors may lead to a bull-bear shift in US stocks: 1) Liquidity:</b>Historically, unexpected tightening of monetary policy is generally the most important factor in the transition between bull and bear markets. Historically, 7 out of 13 rounds of US stock market transitions were broken by monetary policy tightening. The excess liquidity indicator, which is measured by the difference between the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and the year-on-year growth rate of nominal GDP, has changed about 6 months ahead of the P/E of the S&P 500 index. Since May of this year, excess liquidity in the United States has turned from positive to negative. Furthermore, with the US job recovery reaching 75%, the Fed's Taper signal may be released at the September Fed interest rate meeting, and this final statement will determine the final course of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57969b185f1d31d18a6fbda29f911f7f\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f76c0ffa0f994260f203b2e017b012\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Profitability:</b>Historically, the decline in corporate profits caused by tax increases or expectations of tax increases has led to four rounds of bull and bear market cycles. On the one hand, from an economic perspective,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>The Economic Surprises Index, which is about two months ahead of the S&P 500's excess return relative to Treasury Bond, has now fallen sharply to -58.8. On the other hand, looking at the dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 indices over the next 12 months, although both have declined since entering 2021 with the improvement of corporate profit expectations due to economic recovery, they are still at historical highs of 88% and 92% respectively. The profit recovery has been fully reflected in the current stock price, and future tax increases will further suppress future profits. In the medium term, both the renewed economic shock caused by the recurring pandemic and the accelerated implementation of Biden's tariff policies will put further pressure on US stocks, which rely on profitability as their core growth driver, increasing the likelihood of a double whammy in asset prices in the medium term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1057d43dc958261d75e394f43594b50c\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4732f2da4015dce0c89cebc61870b09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) Risk appetite:</b>Bull and bear sentiment indicators constructed based on the results of a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) show that since July of this year, market sentiment has begun to adjust rapidly, and bear sentiment in the US stock market is gradually taking over. Historically, the US stock market has experienced a significant correction after this indicator fell rapidly from a high above 30. Currently, external shocks such as the unexpected spread of the pandemic and trade frictions may also further impact investor sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p><b>05. The synchronized decline in the economic and financial situation between China and the United States led to a weakening impact of external shocks on A-shares.</b></p><p><b>As China's economy became more synchronized with the world after joining the WTO, the crash in US stocks in 2007 had a severe impact on A-shares.</b>The subprime mortgage crisis triggered the S&P 500 index to fall on October 10, 2007, and subsequently, on October 16, A-shares also collapsed rapidly under external shocks. During this round of bear market, the S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 56.78, the largest drop in a bear market since 1942, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell even more than the US stock market, falling from 6214.04 points to 1664.93 points, a cumulative drop of 73.21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db7e1efabd197d91b1b0dc7b9f4204f\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Currently, the economies and finance of China and the United States are declining synchronously, and the impact of external shocks on A-shares is weakening.</b>Unlike the United States' dominant position in the global economy in 2000 and 2008, China's current share of the global economy continues to rise. Coupled with the asynchrony between the Chinese and American economies and monetary cycles, the spillover effects of US market volatility on the global economy will be far less than in the early 20th century and 2008.</p><p><b>On the one hand, China's share of global GDP, measured at purchasing power parity, has now surpassed that of the United States, while the dependence of A-shares on foreign trade has declined significantly.</b>When the subprime mortgage crisis occurred in 2008, China's foreign trade dependence, measured by import and export value/GDP, was as high as over 60%, while as of the first quarter of 2021, it was only 34.30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd4cfaedd63b93d9cb60963d2a01d63\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the other hand, the current financial cycles between China and the United States are out of</b>Unlike in 2008, when my country and the Federal Reserve simultaneously launched a loose monetary policy, my country's current monetary policy and economic recovery are ahead of those overseas and out of sync with the monetary policy of the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b01829398a07e7425bf3fa72ef7307f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Against this backdrop, rising volatility in US stocks will impact A-share sentiment in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A-shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</b></p><p><b>06. Risk Warning</b></p><p>The pandemic in developed economies has exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and the US has raised tariffs more than expected.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/486616\">东亚前海策略团队</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{"UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/486616","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167535940","content_text":"投资要点\n当下美股正处于历史最长的牛市之中。标普 500 指数在 2009 年以来的 12 年牛市中累计涨幅高达 559.04%，无论是延续时长还是累计涨幅都创下了历史记录。我们通过对 1928 年以来美股市场 13 轮美股牛熊转换阶段的宏观和微观特征进行归纳和梳理，比对当下，以期对投资者提供启示：\n整体来看，历轮美股市场牛熊转换发生时存在以下的宏观特征：1）估值处于高位：13 轮牛熊转换中有 12 轮市场顶部出现时美股估值均位于 80% 分位数以上。2）流动性收紧：历史上有 10 轮牛熊转换在美联储主动调整货币政策背景下发生，同时，流动性收紧与美股拐点出现有着高度的相关性。3）基本面恶化：13 轮熊市中有 10 轮均发生在企业盈利下滑的背景下。4）加税：历史上，3 轮熊市发生在加税背景下。5）外部冲击：外部冲击不一定是市场下跌的主要推手，但熊市中 9 次出现的外部冲击对投资者风险偏好的压制会显著加速市场走跌。\n从微观指标来看，美股在牛熊转换发生时会有一些共同特征：1）资产配置层面：家庭超配股票资产、外资流入显著加速；2）估值层面：市盈率与市净率位居历史高位、托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上、巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 1.5 个标准差以上；3）交易层面：新股发行量显著攀升、市场杠杆率过高、低价股占比下滑、看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高；4）技术指标层面：标普 500 偏离长期趋势 50% 以上、MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升。\n目前从政策、资金、市场特征、投资者情绪及估值多个维度看，当前美股都处于历史极端水平。这意味着，即便在下半年全球经济复苏共振之下美股主要指数仍有上行可能，但市场出现大幅调整的概率正在显著上升，当前时点投资者对于美股需要保持高度谨慎。\n通过复盘美股历史上牛熊转换，我们认为当前美股市场与 2000 年互联网泡沫期间有诸多相似之处。从微观指标上看，当前部分表征市场情绪的指标在 2018 年与 2000 年都曾警示过风险，但从宏观环境来看，当下美股面临着与 2018 年迥异的宏观环境，而与 2000 年则存在着多方面共性特征：第一，两轮牛市均历时十年之久，泡沫主要由成长股催生，牛市结构性特征显著；第二，两轮牛市中盈利均为主要驱动因素；第三，两轮牛市中极度鸽派的货币政策均助长了泡沫的膨胀；第四，两段时期的资产均在 2 年前即已出现估值泡沫化的问题，不过在宽松的流动性环境与宏观政策推动的企业盈利改善助力下泡沫得以进一步延续。\n中期来看，三方面因素均可能导致美股的泡沫破灭。1）当下随着美国就业的超预期修复，联储 Taper 信号或于 9 月联储议息会议释放，Taper 开启预示的货币政策边际趋紧将对美股估值造成较大压力；2）另一方面，拜登加税政策的推进也将进一步导致美股盈利承压；3）疫情超预期发酵等外部冲击同样可能给美股带来进一步的下行压力。\n区别于 2000 年美国在全球经济中的主导地位，当前中国经济在全球占比提升，叠加中美经济和货币周期不同步，美股牛熊转换的发生或将在短期内冲击 A 股情绪，但长期而言，A 股走势将更多由内部因素主导。\n风险提示\n发达经济体疫情发展超预期，美联储超预期收紧，美国加税推进超预期。\n正文\n自 2009 年 3 月以来，本轮美股牛市已经历史 12.5 年，累计涨幅高达 559.04%。当前美股盈利处于修复通道，而估值已然处于历史高位，在 Taper 渐行渐近的背景下市场对于 “当下美股处在什么位置” 存在较大分歧。\n在上一篇报告《美股牛市启示录（上）—— 美股历轮牛市的开启、发展与终结》中我们复盘了 1928 年以来美股市场 13 轮牛熊转换时期的背景与市场表现。在本篇报告中，我们将继续梳理、解读过去美股牛熊转换发生时宏微观指标的变化和意义，进一步探讨当下美股市场与历往的异同之处，以期对投资者提供启示。\n中期来看，随着海外联储缩表年内落地，国内经济下行压力逐步显现，央行推动信贷投放，宏观流动性拐点渐行渐近，此外 10 月末 G20 峰会有望成为推动市场风险情绪改善的重要催化剂。从 A 股市场来看，随着 8 月以来的市场切换，当前市场风格已经趋于均衡。今年以来部分调整较为充分的赛道已经初步具备左侧布局价值。\n01 、1928 年以来的 13 轮牛熊转换\n根据美国证券交易委员会的定义，熊市 / 牛市通常指市场宽基指数下跌 / 上涨 20% 以上并持续 2 个月以上，基于这一识别标准，结合市场共识的调整，我们识别出 1928 年（标普 500 指数 1957 年开始发布，并追溯至 1928 年）以来美股经历过的 13 轮牛熊转换。\n\n第一轮：1929 年 9 月，愈演愈烈的投机活动将美股估值推至高位，联储主动加息以遏制投机活动，恐慌情绪推动下美股发生了历史上速度最快、程度最深的闪崩，同年 10 月 23 日至 10 月 29 日道琼斯工业指数下跌 29.54%，史称大崩盘（the Great Crash）。在此之后，伴随着经济基本面的不断恶化，市场也快速下跌，标普 500 指数至 1932 年 7 月累计下跌 86.16%。\n第二轮：1937 年 3 月，大萧条后复苏过程中政策过早的退出导致美国经济再度陷入衰退之中，基本面的二次恶化重创了美国投资者的信心，市场再度拐头向下，标普 500 指数在二战的阴霾的下持续低迷至 1942 年 4 月，累计下跌 59.99%。\n第三轮：1946 年 5 月，二战结束后随着战时价格管制的解除与退伍军人重回劳动力市场后工会力量带来的最低工资上涨，美国陷入了严重的通货膨胀，熊市也在通胀引发的货币紧缩背景下开启。市场在震荡中持续低迷直至 1950 年经济发展回到正轨才重启牛市，期间标普 500 累计下跌 29.61%。\n第四轮：1956 年 8 月，在美国经济持续繁荣、通胀压力小幅抬头的背景下，美联储再度实施了紧缩性货币政策。此次加息不仅对市场造成了流动性冲击，同时也彻底击溃了本就脆弱的市场情绪。标普 500 指数在一年时间里下行了 21.63%。\n第五轮：1961 年 12 月，在经历了 4 年牛市后标普 500 的席勒市盈率创 1930 年 6 月以来新高，美股的估值达到了相当的高位，过高估值引发的担忧情绪主导了此轮熊市，标普 500 指数累计下跌 27.97%，被称为 “肯尼迪大跌”（Kennedy slide）。\n第六轮：1966 年 4 月，越战爆发的背景下美国通胀压力再度显现，而联储的加息政策在 5.5% 的存款利率上限（Regulation Q）的约束下引发了商业银行体系的信贷紧缩（Credit Crunch），商业银行的惜贷最终触发了明斯基时刻（Minsky Moment），标普 500 指数也在这一阶段发生了快速的下跌。截至 1996 年 10 月，这轮短暂的熊市间标普 500 指数快速下跌了 22.18%。\n第七轮：1968 年 12 月，通胀问题再次发酵，为了防止通胀的进一步恶化，联储快速收紧流动性。市场在初期震荡后由 1969 年 6 月开始快速走低，直至 1970 年货币政策边际放松才得以结束下跌行情，截至 1970 年 5 月标普 500 指数累计下跌 36.06%。\n第八轮：1973 年 1 月，滞胀背景下布雷顿森林瓦解、水门事件、第四次中东战争爆发接连发生，黑天鹅事件与第一次石油危机下流动性的收紧严重冲击了美国的资本市场，标普 500 指数在 1973 年 1 月至 1974 年 10 月间大幅下跌，累计跌幅达到了 48.2%。\n第九轮：1980 年 11 月，美国经济再度陷入了衰退，高利率滞胀环境下企业盈利的下滑开启了此轮熊市，同时，保罗・沃尔克为遏制通胀而坚决实施的紧缩性货币政策和 1982 年 6 月爆发的第五次中东战争再度冲击了市场，美股一改 1981 年三季度转好的趋势，再度陷入深跌，截至 1982 年 8 月，跌幅高达 27.05%。\n第十轮：1987 年 8 月，市场结束了长达 5 年涨幅高达 228.81% 的牛市，过快的上涨导致美股的抛售压力逐渐显现，在税收优惠减少与意外公布的高贸易逆差影响下，美股迎来了 20 世纪以来最大幅度的单日暴跌，10 月 19 日标普 500 暴跌 20.5%，史称 “黑色星期一”。截至同年 12 月，标普 500 累计下跌 33.51%。\n第十一轮：1990 年 7 月，科威特战争引发了第三次石油危机，油价再度走高，在通胀预期推高无风险收益率与经济衰退企业盈利下滑的背景下，标普 500 指数在短短 3 个月间快速下跌 19.92%。\n第十二轮：2000 年 3 月，互联网泡沫的破灭结束了美股长达十年的牛市。此前在强劲的经济增长和稳定的通胀推动下，标普 500 指数在这十年中飙升了 416.98% 以上，美股的泡沫化程度也达到了空前的高度，随着联储加息对长期低利率环境下正反馈循环的刺破，上市公司盈利增速快速回落，随后 2001 年 3 月 “安然事件” 等冲击更进一步推动市场悲观情绪滑落至谷底，熊市一直延续至 2002 年 10 月，标普 500 指数累计下跌 49.15%。\n第十三轮：2007 年 10 月，次贷危机演变为金融危机并导致了经济的严重衰退，危机快速的深化下，基本面的恶化与投资者信心的崩溃几乎同时发生，触发了此轮熊市。企业盈利的持续恶化与 “贝尔斯登”“雷曼兄弟” 等接连破产对市场的冲击推动美股一路走低，截至 2009 年 3 月，标普 500 指数累计下跌 56.78%，创 1942 年以来熊市的最大跌幅。\n02、牛熊转换发生时美股市场的宏观特征\n整体来看，在宏观特征上 13 轮美股市场的牛熊切换触发因素主要有以下几点：1）估值处于高位；2）流动性收紧；3）基本面恶化；4）加税及其他压制盈利的预期；5）其他外部冲击。\n\n2.1. 估值处于高位\n美股历史上的 13 轮牛熊转换发生时，除 1980-1982 年间的熊市标普 500 指数市盈率处于低位外，其他 12 轮市场顶部出现时美股估值均位于 80% 的历史分位数以上，其中有 8 次高于 90% 的历史分位数，而 1929 年 “大萧条”、1961 年 “肯尼迪大跌”、1966 年 “闪崩” 和 2000 年互联网泡沫发生时标普 500 指数市盈率均超过了 95% 的历史分位数。\n例外的 1980-1982 年间的熊市发生在滞胀环境之下，企业盈利下滑主导了此轮熊市，市场在流动性收紧和第五次中东战争的冲击下进一步下跌。\n\n2.2 . 流动性收紧\n历史上 13 轮牛熊转换中有 12 轮的触发因素均包括了流动性环境的收紧，其中 9 轮均为美联储主动调整贴现率或联邦基金利率。\n其他 3 轮中，1）1937 年熊市发生时，美国财政部决定对黄金流入进行冲销以减少超额准备金，叠加联储存款准备金率翻倍的政策，在基础货币和货币乘数的双向紧缩下此前强劲的货币扩张戛然而止，流动性的边际收紧同样对市场造成了冲击。2）1990 年熊市开启时，虽然联储在这一期间保持了货币政策的稳定，联邦基金利率也维持了高位震荡格局，但通胀预期推高了无风险利率，十年期国债收益率由 7 月 17 日的 8.44% 迅速提高至 10 月 11 日的 8.92%。3）2007 年次贷危机中，虽然本・伯南克创造性投入了多种金融工具向市场投放流动性，但宏观流动性的宽松并未能有效改善市场的微观流动性，信用利差迅速走阔对风险资产的价格造成了巨大压力。\n唯一例外的仅有 1961 年的 “肯尼迪大跌”，此轮下跌期间，美国经济平稳，企业盈利健康，利率也保持了相对稳定，根据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的研究，更多是投资者情绪的变化导致了此轮市场的低迷。\n同时，流动性收紧与美股拐点有着高度相关性。13 轮牛熊转换中，有 8 次均在流动性收紧的当月即出现了资产价格调整，而 1929 年 “大萧条” 和 1966 年 “闪崩” 的资本市场拐点则相较加息政策的开展滞后了 2 个月。\n\n2.3. 基本面恶化\n美股历史上 13 轮牛熊转换中有 10 轮均发生在企业盈利下滑的背景下，例外的仅有三轮。\n例外的三轮中，1961 年及 1973 年的熊市中，在大宗商品涨价带来的滞胀环境下，价格上涨改善上游企业盈利，这两段期间内受能源板块的拉升美股盈利表现依然相对良好。而 1987 年 “黑色星期一” 的发生则更多由投资者恐慌情绪主导，当时还处于起步期的程序化交易和旨在通过卖空股指期货来对冲股票投资组合的市场风险的投资组合保险这一自动化交易策略尚未能适应市场的闪崩，股价的下跌激活更多自动交易的止损订单，止损订单则进一步加深股价下跌，市场在这一恶性循环中不断走跌。\n\n2.4. 加税及其他压制盈利的预期\n1950 年以来，美国企业税率多次下调，仅在 1968 年发生了一次大幅上调，而这次加税也伴随着流动性的收紧造成了 1968-1971 年间标普 500 指数下跌 36.06% 的熊市。\n除此之外，1937 年的熊市间，对财政赤字相对谨慎的罗斯福为了遏制政府开支和平衡预算，实施了削减联邦支出的紧缩性财政政策，并在 1940 年二战即将爆发的背景下实施了加税政策；1980 年，时任美国总统卡特签署了《1980 年原油暴利税法案》，法案提出对原油生产企业征收 50% 的暴利税，这一举措压制了油企的生产积极性，带来了企业有效税率的快速上行，并最终在能源板块利润的下滑与高融资成本环境重创了美股的企业盈利；此外，1961 年的 “肯尼迪大跌” 中，虽然没有发生实质性的加税措施，肯尼迪公开批评美国钢铁则引起市场形成对大企业压制措施出台的担忧，带来了 “加税” 或相关压制企业盈利预期的扰动。\n\n2.5. 外部冲击\n作为相对成熟的资本市场，美股在历史上通常具有相对较强的抵御风险能力，如 1998 年亚太金融危机、2011 年欧债危机等外部冲击仅会带来美股资产价格的暂时性回调，而并不会触发熊市。但历史上仍有 4 次外部冲击对投资者风险偏好的压制加速了市场的走跌，加深了美股在熊市中的跌幅。\n1956 年 7 月，埃及领导人加迈勒・阿卜杜勒・纳赛尔 (Gamal Abdel Nasser) 宣布将苏伊士运河国有化，在欧美国家中引发了极大的震荡，也影响了美股投资者情绪。\n1973 年 4 月，水门事件愈演愈烈，风波带来的不确定性同样对资本市场造成了冲击，10 月 6 日第四次中东战争的爆发导致外部冲击进一步加剧，战争影响下石油价格飙升，市场情绪进一步恶化。\n1982 年 6 月 6 日，第五次中东战争爆发，市场再度转向担忧输入型通胀的发生。同年 8 月 12 日，墨西哥财政部长正式告知国际货币基金组织（IMF）和美国政府其无力偿还 800 亿美元的外债，拉美债务危机由此拉开帷幕。外部冲击的接踵而至再次影响了美股，美股一改 1981 年三季度转好的趋势，再度陷入深跌。\n1990 年 8 月科威特战争引发了第三次石油危机，油价再度走高，投资者在经历了 70 年代前两轮石油危机后对此次危机格外担忧，风险溢价的走高同样对股价构成了压制。\n03、牛熊转换发生时美股市场的微观特征\n从历史上看，美股在牛熊转换发生时会有一些共同特征：1）资产配置层面：家庭超配股票资产、外资流入显著加速；2）估值层面：市盈率与市净率位居高位、托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上、巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 1.5 个标准差以上；3）交易层面：新股发行量显著攀升、市场杠杆率过高、低价股占比下滑、看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高；4）技术指标层面：标普 500 偏离长期趋势 50% 以上、MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升。\n3.1. 资产配置层面\n 1）家庭超配股权资产\n从资产配置上来看，家庭超配股权资产往往预示着风险的到来，这一配置比重超过 30% 时市场风险较大。一方面， 这一配置比重的提高映射了市场投资者参与度的快速提升，而这往往是牛市后期的预兆；另一方面，家庭超配风险资产往往透支了后续增量资金进入市场的潜力，一旦宏观流动性发生调整，市场很难在微观层面觅得增量资金的注入以缓释流动性紧缩的压力。就历史数据而言，1966 年的 “闪崩”、2000 年的 “互联网泡沫” 和 2007 年金融危机下的熊市中该指标均超过了 30%。当前美国投资者配置情绪日益高涨，家庭配置股权的比例已经高达 40.25%，这也超越了互联网泡沫时期 38.25% 的历史极值。\n\n2）外资流入显著加速\n同样，外资的快速涌入通常也是牛市后期的显著特征。本土偏好效应下外资往往倾向于投资本国的风险资产，直到牛市后期才会受美股风险资产持续上涨的吸引而加速流入，这一时期市场的风险也相对较大。该指标成功印证了 1987 年 “黑色星期五” 的闪崩、2000 年互联网泡沫的膨胀、2007 年金融危机蔓延下的暴跌这 3 轮牛熊转换的发生，同时监测到了 2010 年 4 月的市场回调。从领先滞后关系来看，随着对美股学习效应的加强，外资流向逐步由 2000 年初的滞后于市场发展到近年的领先于市场。“黑色星期五” 和 “互联网泡沫” 中，外资分别滞后于市场 3 个月和 8 个月，金融危机中，外资的流出则领先于标普 500 指数的调整约 2 个月，而 2010 年的美股回调，外资同样领先于似乎长约 2 个月。当前美股的外资流入再度加速，外资单月净流入的市值占比一度触及 0.7%，而 6 月底拐点出现，外资开始由美股向外转移。 \n\n3.2. 估值层面\n 1）市盈率与市净率位居高位\n市盈率是衡量资产价值的经典指标，反映了当前利润下回收对股票投资所需的年数，从历史数据来看，当该指标高于当时历史 95% 分位数时，市场存在较大风险。1929 年、1961 年、1966 年、2000 年，这一指标分别高达 32.56、21.25、22.66 和 44.19，均高于历史 95% 分位数，唯一没有出现熊市的 2018 年也出现了 19.87% 的回调。当下市盈率再次突破 95% 的历史分位数，第三次超过了大萧条前 32.56 的历史次峰，高达 37.86 倍。同时，标普 500 指数成分股的中位市盈率更是高达 25.02 倍，突破了互联网泡沫时期的历史峰值 22.76 倍，处于 1990 年以来的历史极值状态。\n另一方面，从市净率来看，标普 500 指数的市净率曾在互联网泡沫破灭前夕的 1999 年底达到过峰值 5.04 倍。当前这一指标再度接近历史极值位，高达 4.59 倍，创 2000 年 10 月以来新高，标普 500 指数成分股的中位市净率同样也处于 1990 年以来的历史极值位。\n\n2）标普 500 的托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上\n托宾 Q 作为实物资产的市场价值与其重置价值之间的比率，当整个市场的托宾 Q 高于平价过多时，投资者可能对未来的资产回报过于乐观。由于该指标受企业重资产占比的趋势性变动影响存在着长期的变化，我们依照相较前 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差构建风险位的警示指标以剔除趋势影响。从历史上看，2000 年的互联网泡沫与 2007 年金融危机期间该指标均有较好的印证，而 2015 年 4 月该指标警示风险后虽未发生系统性风险，但标普 500 指数随后也发生了 14.16% 的大幅回调。从与美股的领先滞后关系上，该指标具有一定的领先性，2000 年的互联网泡沫和 2007 年金融危机中托宾 Q 指标的拐点分别领先指数拐点 8 个月和 4 个月，2015 年的拐点同样领先标普 500 指数 3 个月。当前，托宾 Q 值再度于 2021 年 4 月开始超过历史均值 2 个标准差以上，并于 8 月初开始出现拐点。\n\n3）巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 2 个标准差\n巴菲特指数衡量了美股总市值与 GDP 的比率，巴菲特称之为在 “任何给定时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。随着直接融资占比的提高，该值也存在长期中枢上行的趋势。从剔除趋势后的趋势偏离度来看，当该指标趋势偏离度超过均值 2 个标准差以上时市场往往存在较大风险（注：该指数为美股总市值相对 GDP 的比值，其中 GDP 数据源自 BEA，美股总市值则参照 CMV 的算法，1970 年之前使用美联储统计的公司股权，1970 年之后使用 Wilshire 5000 指数的总市值，并对两不同口径的总市值作连续化调整）。\n历史上巴菲特指数在 1966 年和 1968 年均触及 1 个标准差以上的高位，在 2000 年互联网泡沫前则触及了均值以上的 2 个标准差，随后市场均发生了牛熊转换。此轮牛市中，市场分别于 2015 年与 2018 年触及均值以上 1 个标准差与 2 个标准差，随后市场分别发生了 14.16% 和 19.87% 的回调。当前巴菲特指数已经突破长期趋势 3 个标准差以上，处于历史极值状态。\n\n3.3. 交易层面\n 1）新股发行量明显攀升\nIPO 的发行量通常从两方面对股价形成影响。一方面，当市场投资者风险偏好普遍较高时，首次公开募股更容易出现超募现象，然而超募资金往往并不能被企业合理运用，从而加剧了超募个股的崩盘风险。IPO 发行热度极高时期容易形成系统性风险；另一方面，新股发行在微观流动性上也对市场形成虹吸效应，容易压制股价的上涨。从 2000 年以来的历史来看，互联网泡沫时期曾经出现过 IPO 单年发行 643 起。当前美股新股发行数量再度突破 600 起，截至 2021 年 9 月 12 日已发行 788 起，创 2000 年以来新高。\n\n2）保证金负债超过趋势值 2 个标准差以上\n保证金负债规模反映了市场交易的杠杆水平，从历史上看，当杠杆率过高时市场往往积蓄了较大的潜在风险，一旦指数开始发生下跌，则容易在杠杆资金止损的连锁反应下引发系统性风险。2000 年互联网泡沫时期和 2007 年全球金融危机爆发前美国股市的保证金负债规模均超过趋势值 2 个标准差以上。其中，2000 年互联网泡沫中，该指标与标普 500 同时出现拐点；2007 年金融危机中，该指标则领先指数拐点约 3 个月。2021 年 3 月开始，美国股市保证金负债再次大超趋势值 2 个标准差以上，并于 6 月底开始出现拐点。\n\n3）低价股占比下滑\n从历史上看，牛市后期与风险资产调整前夕往往都会出现一轮低价股（5 美元以下的 Penny Stock）行情，在场外边际投资者涌入的背景下，低价股往往能取得超额收益。整体而言，低价股占比低于 5% 时市场风险累计相对较大，这一指标在 2007 年熊市、2011 年欧债危机下 19.15% 的回调、2015 年 8 月 12.08% 的回调和 2018 年 19.87% 回调发生时均有印证。而截至 9 月 12 日，这一指标再度突破了 5% 的临界位，读数为 4.03%。\n\n4）美股看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高\n看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例衡量了美股市场上看多情绪相较看空情绪的强弱，往往在牛市末期投资者情绪推升至极致时容易上升至 200% 以上。从 1991 年以来的美股历史来看，2000 年非理性情绪推升的互联网泡沫下这一指标曾经突破过 200%，达到了 220% 的极值点。当前这一指标在 2020 年疫情背景下 QE 重启后直线上行，最新读数 178%，创 2001 年以来新高，反映了投资者风险偏好已经处于较为危险的位置。\n\n3.4. 技术层面\n 1）标普 500 指数偏离长期趋势 50% 以上\n资产价格有着围绕趋势值波动的内在趋势，因而当股指长期偏离趋势值时，往往会有 “均值回归” 的发生。从历史数据来看，当通胀调整后标普 500 指数偏离长期趋势超过 50% 时，市场均发生了大幅调整。1937 年的牛市拐点处，标普 500 趋势偏离度达 65.64%；1966 年和 1968 年的拐点处，该指数分别达到 62.21% 和 56.53%；2000 年的互联网泡沫破灭前，该指数更是达到了 79.98% 的历史峰值。当前标普 500 指数从 2020 年 11 月开始偏离长期趋势 50% 以上，截至 9 月 10 日，趋势偏离度高达 78.20%，接近 2000 年互联网泡沫破灭前夕的历史峰值。\n\n2） MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升\n从历史上看，当股市中的多数个股均位于其长期趋势线以上时，市场往往有着较大的回调风险。从标普 500 与 Russell3000 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比来看，1998 年 1 月、2010 年 3 月、2011 年 4 月标普 500 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比突破 90% 的同时 Russell3000 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比突破 80%，市场在这三轮中均发生了 15% 以上的回调，指标警示拐点分别领先于市场 6 个月、2 个月和 3 个月。而当前两指标均于 2021 年 1 月起再度超越了 90% 和 80% 的警示值，拐点则分别出现于 2021 年 5 月和 2021 年 3 月。\n\n04、当前美股环境与 2000 年更加类似\n 4.1. 本轮牛市的主要特征\n当前美股市场正处在 1928 年以来第 14 轮牛市之中。此轮牛市自 2009 年 3 月 10 日开始，至今已历经 12.5 年，为美股历史上最长的牛市，此前最长的牛市为 1990 年 10 月 12 日至 2000 年 3 月 24 日的互联网泡沫，跨度为 9.5 年。同时，此轮牛市也是历史上涨幅最大的牛市，12 年慢牛使美股累计上涨了 559.04%，同样超越了互联网泡沫期间 416.98% 的涨幅与大萧条后经济复苏 1932 年 7 月至 1937 年 3 月累计 323.36% 的涨幅。\n\n2008 年全球金融危机结束后，在量化宽松等强力刺激政策推动下，市场信心逐步恢复，美股市场于 2009 年 3 月重归牛途。此轮牛市大致呈现四个阶段的增长态势。\n 第一阶段：2009 年 3 月至 2011 年 7 月（599 个交易日，涨幅 98.81%）。这一期间经济触底反弹，流动性宽松、经济复苏和投资者信心恢复共同驱动这一阶段的市场上行；\n第二阶段：2012 年 11 月至 2015 年 8 月（691 个交易日，涨幅 55.35%）。欧债危机、摩根大通巨亏、财政悬崖等利空出尽后，美国经济重回温和增长的轨道。这一期间大盘温和上行，其中生物技术公司表现突出，驱动纳斯达克指数涨幅迅速超越标普 500 与道琼斯指数；\n第三阶段：2016 年 7 月至 2018 年 9 月（558 个交易日，涨幅 39.53%），在市场受 QE 退出、联储加息影响震荡调整一年后，特朗普就任后的减税与财政刺激政策构成了美股再度上行的主要驱动力，受减税与财政政策刺激，这一期间美国企业盈利持续增长，推动美股延续慢牛行情，而科技股的业绩及市场表现尤为突出；\n第四阶段：2019 年 1 月至今（683 个交易日，涨幅 89.64%）。在 2018 年四季度市场受国债收益率飙升快速回调后，2019 年全球经济衰退背景下宏观流动性的转向驱动了本轮行情，期间市场在 2020 年初疫情冲击回调后一路上攻至今。这一阶段，估值因素的作用显著提升，尤其是在 2020 年为应对疫情量化宽松政策重启后，宽松流动性驱动下估值的抬升带来了纳斯达克指数的快速上行，标普 500 与道琼斯指数也显著上行。\n\n纵观本轮美股牛市的行情，主要呈现如下几点特征：\n1）本轮美股大盘股牛市由盈利与估值双轮驱动，而以 Russell2000 衡量的小盘股则主要由盈利单方面驱动。从 2009 年以来，本轮标普 500 指数涨幅的 64.13% 由盈利驱动，9.45% 由无风险利率的下降推动，26.42% 由风险偏好驱动。盈利是本轮牛市中最为核心的驱动因素。而 2019-2020 年，流动性宽松引致的估值驱动作用显著提高，流动性宽松对 2019-2020 年市场涨幅贡献占比分别达 64.08% 和 225.14%。从以 Russell2000 指数衡量的小盘股来看，本轮牛市期间，盈利因素贡献了本轮涨幅的 80.22%，而估值因素则影响了 19.78%。\n2）科技互联网企业表现尤为突出。从标普 500 指数 GICS 分类的 11 个行业来看，信息技术企业在本轮牛市中表现尤为突出，以 1268.85% 的涨幅位居各行业首位，相较标普 500 指数的超额收益率高达 712.32%。以亚马逊、特斯拉等为代表的非必需消费行业同样表现突出，相较标普 500 指数取得了 466.83% 的超额收益。科技股行情在 FAAMG 上表现最为明显，以市值加权计，5 家科技互联网巨头企业在这一期间共计上涨了 3906%，远超三大股指的涨跌幅。从 EPS 变动来看，盈利在 FAAMG 行情中起到了最主要的作用。3）上市公司回购对行情的显著推动是本轮牛市又一大显著特征。本轮牛市中，上市公司回购起到了巨大的助推作用，从回购规模来看，本轮牛市初期 2009 年二季度上市公告单季回购规模仅为 325.80 亿美元，而到 2019 年一季度，单季回购规模扩大至 2042.52 亿美元，并持续多季度维持在单季 1500 亿美元以上的回购规模。回购对股票价格的推动作用是显著的，一方面，回购减少了公司股本，可以直接提高公司每股盈利与净资产收益率，并通过降低加权平均资本成本提升从业绩表现角度驱动股价上行；另一方面，回购可以通过优化股权结构提升公司治理水平；最后，股票回购提供的增量需求与释放的积极信号同样对股价有着显著的支撑。基于此，本轮牛市中回购对 EPS 与股价起到了显著的推动作用。\n\n4.2. 微观指标上，当前美股处在什么位置\n从政策、资金、市场特征、市场交易情绪及估值多个维度看，我们认为当前美股市场出现了一些历史上牛熊转换发生时的共性特征。这意味着，即便在下半年全球经济复苏共振之下美股主要指数仍有上攻可能，但市场的上行空间也已经相对有限，这个时点上对美股的投资需要趋于谨慎。\n从表征市场状态的各类微观指标来看：\n1）当下，资产配置指标中：当前美国投资者配置情绪日益高涨，家庭配置股票的比例已经高达 40.25%，这也超越了互联网泡沫时期 36.98% 的历史极值；外资方面， 6 月外资单月净流入的市值占比高达 0.7%，创近 10 年新高，此后拐点出现，此前 2007 年金融危机与 2010 年市场回调中该拐点均领先指数约 2 个月。\n2）反映估值合理性的指标中：市盈率再次突破 95% 的历史分位数，第三次超过了大萧条前 32.56 的历史次峰，高达 37.86 倍；标普 500 指数成分股市盈率中位值则达到了历史极值位；市净率也再度突破 4 倍，创 2000 年以来新高；托宾 Q 值和巴菲特指数分别突破历史均值和历史趋势值 2 个和 3 个标准差以上，均处于历史极值状态。\n3）交易层面的指标中：美股新股发行数量再度突破 600 起，截至 2021 年 8 月 20 日已发行 788 起创 2000 年以来新高；截至 2021 年 5 月底，美国股市保证金负债大超趋势值 2 个标准差以上后拐点于 6 月出现，2007 年金融危机中该指标领先指数拐点约 3 个月；Russell3000 指数中低价股占比再度达到了 5% 的临界位；看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例在 2020 年疫情背景下 QE 重启后直线上行，最新读数 178%，创 2001 年以来新高，反映了投资者风险偏好已经处于较为危险的位置。\n4）技术层面指标中：标普 500 指数从 2020 年 11 月开始偏离长期趋势 50% 以上，截至 9 月 10 日，趋势偏离度高达 78.20%；标普 500 和 Russell3000 指数成分股中 MA250 以上个股占比再度超越警示值后分别于 5 月和 3 月拐头向下，此前三次回调中这一技术指标约领先指数回调 4 个月。\n4.3. 宏观特征上，当前美股市场不同于 2018 年\n从微观指标上看，当前我们监测的部分表征市场状态的指标在 2000 年与 2018 年都曾出现过风险警示。但从宏观环境来看，当下美股面临着与 2018 年迥异的宏观环境。\n基本面上，2018 年特朗普的减税法案极大改善了企业的盈利环境，政策使得美国跨国公司利润回流，标普 500 盈利改善抵消了估值的大幅回落。而当下，拜登的美国就业计划则将对企业实施加税政策，这一政策的实施将对美国企业盈利造成拖累，这一情形更类似于 2000 年时的企业盈利承压局面。\n\n货币政策上，2018 年联储已经处在加息周期中，流动性预期内收紧后在次年全球经济放缓的背景下仍有施展余地，而当下一方面随着疫情的逐步控制，全球经济整体处于复苏区间，另一方面联储资产负债表规模已经很大，降低了宽松型货币政策进一步实施的空间。同时，疫情存在的恶化可能同样会冲击市场情绪，对风险偏好构成压制。\n\n4.4. 整体而言，当前美股市场更类似于 2000 年\n通过美股历史上牛熊转换的复盘，我们认为当前美股市场与 2000 年有诸多相似之处。\n第一，两轮牛市均历时十年之久，泡沫主要由成长股催生，牛市结构性特征显著。从整体来看，2000 年牛市和本轮牛市分别历时 9.5 年和 12.5 年，标普 500 指数涨幅分别达 416.98% 和 559.04%，无论从时长还是涨幅均为历时前两位；从行业上看，两轮股市结构性特征显著，2000 年牛市中，互联网相关的通信技术企业涨幅惊人，推动信息技术行业取得了显著的超额收益率，而本轮牛市中，美股市场的主要超额收益也为以 FAAMG 为代表的信息技术行业和可选消费行业所取得；从个股来看，两轮牛市均为少数个股推动的结构性牛市。\n\n第二，两轮牛市中盈利均为主要驱动因素。2000 年牛市中，盈利、无风险利率和风险偏好三大驱动因素占比分别为 69.79%、19.72% 和 10.49%；而本轮牛市中，三大驱动因素占比分别为 74.59%、9.14% 和 16.27%。两轮牛市中盈利均为核心驱动因素，流动性与风险偏好的上行也均起到了助推作用。\n\n第三，极度鸽派的货币政策助长了泡沫的膨胀。上任之初，艾伦・格林斯潘被普遍认为是一名坚定对抗通胀的鹰派官员（Inflation Fighter），然而随着时间的推移，艾伦・格林斯潘的立场则愈发鸽派，被路透社社评评价为 “披着鹰皮的鸽派（dove in hawk’s clothing）”。在 1996 年市场已经普遍意识到泡沫的存在后，艾伦・格林斯潘依然力排众议拒绝加息，并在 1998 年 “东南亚金融危机” 下资本泡沫即将破灭时再度降息。这一系列宽松的货币政策取向助长了 2000 年牛市中泡沫的膨胀。同样的情形也发生了在本轮牛市之中，本・伯南克、珍妮特・耶伦、杰里米・鲍威尔担任主席时期，美联储政策取向同样偏鸽，4 轮 QE 向市场注入了大量流动性，而美国股市的估值也在这一时期被显著推高。\n\n最后，两段时期的资产均在 2 年前即已出现估值泡沫化的问题，不过在宽松的流动性环境与宏观政策推动的企业盈利改善助力下泡沫得以进一步延续。\n从标普 500 偏离长期趋势值、席勒市盈率等诸多指标来看，1998 年美股的资产泡沫已经相对严重，同时，随着美元指数在东南亚危机中的快速下跌、上市公司盈利持续下滑、利率上行货币环境边际趋紧，标普 500 指数发生了阶段性回调。1998 年美股估值已经处于高位，标普 500 席勒市盈率于 1997 年底突破大萧条前的 32.56，创历史新高，艾伦・格林斯潘和沃伦・巴菲特也相继警示了美股泡沫风险。1997 年三季度是当时美股盈利的阶段性高点，随着 1998 年半年报的陆续披露，美国企业盈利连续三个季度边际回落，市场逐渐形成了对上市公司业绩持续回落的一致预期。另一方面，利率上行叠加东南亚金融危机冲击下美元指数的快速下跌，流动性环境的边际趋紧也对美股估值构成了冲击。多方面利空因素下，标普 500 指数在 1998 年 7 月 17 日至 1998 年 9 月 4 日间发生了 19.15% 的回调。然而，在彼时联储货币政策转向的流动性驱动下，美股的泡沫继续膨胀了 2 年。\n受 “东南亚金融危机” 蔓延的影响，美联储于 1998 年 9 月 29 日 - 11 月 17 日间连续三次下调联邦基金目标利率。在货币政策刺激下，美国企业盈利再度回升，叠加流动性环境的转向，美股再度上行，直至 2000 年 3 月 21 日联储主动加息才刺破了泡沫。\n\n本轮美股也发生了类似的情形。在本轮美股历史上最长的牛市中，标普 500 指数的席勒市盈率于 2018 年 1 月再度突破大萧条时期的极值，达到 33.31 倍。艾伦・格林斯潘也于 2018 年 1 月 31 日再度警示了美股的估值风险。货币政策上，2 月 5 日特朗普新提名的杰罗姆・鲍威尔并未如特朗普预期的 “偏鸽”，反而对美国经济发表了乐观展望，使得市场加息预期上升。美国股市也随着美国国债收益率的快速升高而从 2018 年 9 月 20 日开始快速下跌，截至 12 月 24 日累计下跌 19.87%。与 1998 年相类似的，本轮美股泡沫并未就此破灭，反而在 2019 年再度重启牛市。一方面，特朗普的 2017 年减税和就业法案改善了美国企业的盈利环境，美国企业利润折年数从 2018 年一季度的 1128 亿美元快速提升至 2019 年四季度的 1418 亿美元，复合年化增长率高达 12.13%。另一方面，随着全球经济增速放缓，美联储为首的各大央行货币政策也再度转向。2019 年 5 月，鲍威尔发表讲话，明确表示将在适当时机采取行动以提振疲软的经济，叠加疫情以来的天量财政货币政策，美股的泡沫继续膨胀了两年。\n\n当下，海外流动性已经出现边际收紧，美欧日 M2 增速已经出现见顶迹象。同时，拜登加税政策对美股企业盈利构成压制。拜登政府提出的美国制造税收计划及家庭计划同时对富人、资本利得及企业加税，美股盈利将受冲击。加税带来的冲击可能呈现结构性，科技股恐首当其冲。GILTI 税率翻倍与 G7 初步达成的 15% 全球共同最低税率协定可能使得以苹果、谷歌为首的海外营收占比大的跨国互联网及科技类公司的税负压力明显增大。\n\n中期来看，三方面因素均可能导致美股牛熊转换的发生：1）流动性方面：结合历史来看，货币政策的超预期收紧一般是牛熊转换发生的最主要因素，历史上 13 轮美股市场切换中有 7 轮均由货币政策收紧而刺破，以 M2 同比增速与名义 GDP 同比增速差额度量的超额流动性指标，变动约领先标普 500 指数市盈率 6 个月。今年 5 月以来，美国超额流动性由正转负。此外，当下随着美国就业修复已达 75%，联储 Taper 信号或与 9 月联储议息会议释放，此次的最终表态将决定缩表最终推进的进程。\n\n2）盈利方面：加税或加税预期引致的企业盈利回落预期在历史上也曾导致过 4 轮牛熊转换的发生。一方面，从经济形式来看，花旗经济意外指数约领先标普 500 相对国债的超额回报率约 2 个月，当前这一指数大幅走低，已回落至 - 58.8。另一方面，从标普 500 和 Russell3000 指数的未来 12 个月动态市盈率来看，虽然步入 2021 年后随着经济复苏下企业盈利预期的改善两者均有所回落，但仍分别位于 88% 和 92% 的历史高位，盈利修复已在当前股价中得到充分的体现，而未来加税则将进一步压制未来的盈利。中期来看，无论是疫情反复下经济的再度冲击还是拜登加税政策的加速推进，都将使依赖盈利作为核心增长动能的美股承受进一步压力，在中期出现资产价格戴维斯双杀的可能性有所趋升。\n\n3）风险偏好方面：根据美国个人投资者协会（American Association of Individual Investors，AAII）调查结果构建的牛熊情绪指标显示，自今年 7 月以来，市场情绪已经开始迅速调整，当前美股的熊市情绪已经逐渐占据主导。从历史上看，该指标从 30 以上高位快速回落后美股市场均出现了较大幅度的调整。当下，疫情超预期发酵、贸易摩擦等外部冲击同样可能进一步冲击美股的投资者情绪。\n05、中美经济金融同步性下降，外部冲击对 A 股影响减弱\n随着加入 WTO 后中国经济与全球同步性的提高，2007 年美股的暴跌对 A 股造成了剧烈冲击。次贷危机引发标普 500 指数于 2007 年 10 月 10 日开始下跌，随后的 10 月 16 日，A 股也在外部冲击下快速崩盘。此轮熊市间，标普 500 指数累计下跌 56.78，创 1942 年以来熊市的最大跌幅，而上证指数的跌幅更是超越美股，从 6214.04 点一路走低至 1664.93 点，累计跌幅高达 73.21%。\n\n当前中美经济金融同步性下降，外部冲击对 A 股影响减弱。区别于 2000 年与 2008 年时美国在全球经济中的主导地位，当前中国在全球经济中的占比持续上升，叠加中美经济与货币周期的不同步，美国市场的波动对于全球外溢效应将远小于 20 世纪初与 2008 年。\n一方面，以购买力平价计算的中国 GDP 全球占比现已超越美国，同时 A 股对外贸易依存度显著下降。2008 年次贷危机发生时，以进出口金额 / GDP 衡量的中国对外贸易依存度高达 60% 以上，而截至 2021 年一季度，仅为 34.30%。\n\n另一方面，当前中美金融周期不同步。区别于 2008 年我国与美联储同时启动宽松货币政策，当前我国货币政策和经济复苏领先于海外，与美国的货币政策不同步。\n\n在这一背景下，美股波动上升短期内冲击 A 股情绪，但长期而言，A 股走势将更多由内部因素主导。\n06、风险提示\n发达经济体疫情发展超预期，美联储超预期收紧，美国加税推进超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"RTYmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837965930,"gmtCreate":1629853081620,"gmtModify":1676530151072,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837965930","repostId":"1102136193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102136193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629851485,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102136193?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-25 08:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"German regulator BaFin rejects insider trading suspicions in Daimler shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102136193","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Germany’s markets watchdog BaFin said on Tuesday it found no evidence to pursue an inside","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Germany’s markets watchdog BaFin said on Tuesday it found no evidence to pursue an insider trading investigation in the shares of carmaker Daimler, including the purchase of a stake in the UK’s Aston Martin by Mercedes’ Formula One boss.</p>\n<p>BaFin looked into trading at Germany’s Daimler and passed information to counterparts at the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regarding trading in Aston Martin shares, with the FCA also finding no evidence to pursue a probe, the Financial Times newspaper reported earlier.</p>\n<p>“I can confirm that BaFin looked into the transaction with regard to possible suspicions of insider trading (in Daimler securities), but did not find any clues,” the BaFin spokesperson said in an emailed statement.</p>\n<p>Daimler said it had no comment. FCA and Aston Martin did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular working hours.</p>\n<p>Toto Wolff, Mercedes’ Formula One boss, who owns about a third of the Mercedes team, purchased shares in luxury carmaker Aston Martin in April last year.</p>\n<p>Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes, also owns a minority stake in Aston Martin.</p>\n<p>Wolff bought a 0.95% stake in Aston Martin from a vehicle controlled by Lawrence Stroll, the UK carmaker’s executive chair, according to the FT.</p>\n<p>In the following month, Aston Martin appointed Tobias Moers, the former head of Mercedes’ AMG business, as its CEO. In October, Daimler said it would raise its stake in Aston Martin to 20% by 2023.</p>\n<p>Mercedes F1 said Wolff had not been aware of either plan when he acquired the shares and that “all relevant disclosures were made to the UK financial authorities at the appropriate time”, according to the FT. Wolff did not acquire or trade any Daimler shares or securities last year, the newspaper added.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>German regulator BaFin rejects insider trading suspicions in Daimler shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGerman regulator BaFin rejects insider trading suspicions in Daimler shares\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-25 08:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-aston-martin-insidertrading/update-3-german-regulator-bafin-rejects-insider-trading-suspicions-in-daimler-shares-idUSL1N2PV254><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) -Germany’s markets watchdog BaFin said on Tuesday it found no evidence to pursue an insider trading investigation in the shares of carmaker Daimler, including the purchase of a stake in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-aston-martin-insidertrading/update-3-german-regulator-bafin-rejects-insider-trading-suspicions-in-daimler-shares-idUSL1N2PV254\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDAIF":"戴姆勒汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-aston-martin-insidertrading/update-3-german-regulator-bafin-rejects-insider-trading-suspicions-in-daimler-shares-idUSL1N2PV254","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102136193","content_text":"(Reuters) -Germany’s markets watchdog BaFin said on Tuesday it found no evidence to pursue an insider trading investigation in the shares of carmaker Daimler, including the purchase of a stake in the UK’s Aston Martin by Mercedes’ Formula One boss.\nBaFin looked into trading at Germany’s Daimler and passed information to counterparts at the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regarding trading in Aston Martin shares, with the FCA also finding no evidence to pursue a probe, the Financial Times newspaper reported earlier.\n“I can confirm that BaFin looked into the transaction with regard to possible suspicions of insider trading (in Daimler securities), but did not find any clues,” the BaFin spokesperson said in an emailed statement.\nDaimler said it had no comment. FCA and Aston Martin did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular working hours.\nToto Wolff, Mercedes’ Formula One boss, who owns about a third of the Mercedes team, purchased shares in luxury carmaker Aston Martin in April last year.\nDaimler, the parent company of Mercedes, also owns a minority stake in Aston Martin.\nWolff bought a 0.95% stake in Aston Martin from a vehicle controlled by Lawrence Stroll, the UK carmaker’s executive chair, according to the FT.\nIn the following month, Aston Martin appointed Tobias Moers, the former head of Mercedes’ AMG business, as its CEO. In October, Daimler said it would raise its stake in Aston Martin to 20% by 2023.\nMercedes F1 said Wolff had not been aware of either plan when he acquired the shares and that “all relevant disclosures were made to the UK financial authorities at the appropriate time”, according to the FT. Wolff did not acquire or trade any Daimler shares or securities last year, the newspaper added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDAIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953206356,"gmtCreate":1673256434075,"gmtModify":1676538806512,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953206356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011985903,"gmtCreate":1648803886063,"gmtModify":1676534401331,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLF\">$克里夫天然资源公司(CLF)$</a>buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLF\">$克里夫天然资源公司(CLF)$</a>buy","text":"$克里夫天然资源公司(CLF)$buy","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b137d9bbf3b60a29dd972ee9967bef27","width":"1080","height":"2193"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011985903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":545128736801824,"gmtCreate":1774099242047,"gmtModify":1774099244998,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/603087\">$甘李药业(603087)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/603087\">$甘李药业(603087)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$甘李药业(603087)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8869d0f812b53a882a1863abf44dcdcf","width":"882","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/545128736801824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}