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红色金刚
2023-06-30
$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$
红色金刚
2022-11-01
$腾讯控股(00700)$
红色金刚
2021-08-06
yyds
Insiders confirm that BYD will supply Tesla with "blade batteries".
红色金刚
2021-06-01
OKOK
Zhang Yidong: Don't stop going long in June; liquidity between China and the US won't be tight.
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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19:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Insiders confirm that BYD will supply Tesla with \"blade batteries\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144424668","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款","content":"<p>According to a report by US-Hong Kong Telegraph, some media outlets recently reported that they learned from multiple informed sources that...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>It will be launched in the second quarter of next year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Supply \"blade batteries\". Today, an insider at BYD revealed to the media that it is true that BYD will supply \"blade batteries\" to Tesla, and that the first Model may be the Model Y.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Insiders confirm that BYD will supply Tesla with \"blade batteries\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInsiders confirm that BYD will supply Tesla with \"blade batteries\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-06 19:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to a report by US-Hong Kong Telegraph, some media outlets recently reported that they learned from multiple informed sources that...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>It will be launched in the second quarter of next year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Supply \"blade batteries\". Today, an insider at BYD revealed to the media that it is true that BYD will supply \"blade batteries\" to Tesla, and that the first Model may be the Model Y.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144424668","content_text":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款车型或为Model Y。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"01211":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119553151,"gmtCreate":1622556082273,"gmtModify":1704186261681,"author":{"id":"3558657583202309","authorId":"3558657583202309","name":"红色金刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea5179e1529674f308547e56f26874","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558657583202309","authorIdStr":"3558657583202309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OKOK","listText":"OKOK","text":"OKOK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119553151","repostId":"1169153092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169153092","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1622552687,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169153092?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-01 21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: Don't stop going long in June; liquidity between China and the US won't be tight.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169153092","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。","content":"<p><b>1. Hong Kong Stock Allocation Strategy for June</b></p><p><b>1.1 Review: The May strategy, \"No poverty in May, buy on dips,\" has been validated—the quarterly correction that began in February came to an end by the end of April, and a quarterly bull window is expected by mid-May at the latest.</b></p><p><ul><li>In early September 2020, we began recommending going long on Hong Kong stocks at low levels, and in the context of recovery, we recommended revaluing core cyclical assets.</p><p></li><li>At the end of January 2021, when sentiment in Hong Kong stocks was high, we began to pour cold water on it, warning that there was also a risk of correction in the bull market. In late February, we proposed that the construction of the \"gold pit\" would not be completed until the second quarter.</p><p></li><li><b>At the end of March, we compared the market performance in 2021 to that in 2010—policies returned to normalcy, the stock market valuation system was reassessed, and structural risks were released.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Early April Spring Strategy 20210407 \"A Newborn Calf Is Not Afraid of a Tiger\" Judgment</b>US stocks experienced increased volatility in the second quarter, but this was not a systemic risk, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to complete the bottom of the golden pit that began in March.</p><p></li><li><b>In early May, an article titled \"Not Poor in May, Buy on Dips\" pointed out that the quarterly adjustment that began in February had come to an end by the end of April, and a quarterly-level bull window would arrive no later than mid-May. It was advisable to buy on dips.</b>Actively seize profit-driven structural market trends.</p><p></li><li><b>May 14th, \"Gold Pit Rally Celebrates Centennial Celebration: STAR Market Leads Long Bull Market in 'Future Core Assets'\"</b>China reiterated that<b>The US continues its easing policy, and the policy environment is warming ahead of China's centennial celebrations. After the \"golden pit\" in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, there is a window of opportunity for buying, reminding investors to plan for new structural market trends.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1.2 Outlook: Bulls will continue in June, liquidity in both China and the US will not be tight, and short-term market volatility is a buying opportunity.</b></p><p><b>First, there's no turning back the tide. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain dovish at its June policy meeting, and even if inflation continues to rise in May, it will tolerate inflation and remain dovish. The biggest difference between the market performance in May and June this year and the previous \"May poverty and June disasters\" is that the economy has recovered but liquidity has not tightened.</b></p><p><ul><li>U.S. inflation data for May is expected to continue rising, which could trigger minor fluctuations in the stock market in June, but is not a systemic risk. Under the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy framework, there is a greater emphasis on employment and data dependence. Currently, the US stock market is heavily indebted and the US unemployment rate remains high, making it unlikely that the Fed will tighten its grip. The market volatility following the rise in inflation in April, as well as the Federal Reserve's stance, have confirmed our predictions.</p><p></li><li>The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repos (ON RRP) have been rising recently. This is because the issuance of fiscal subsidies has led to abnormally loose liquidity in the financial market. Financial institutions have surplus funds and are participating in reverse repos in large quantities. The Fed's passive withdrawal of liquidity does not mean that the Fed is actively tightening.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the US inventory replenishment cycle has reached its later stages, commodity prices are in their later stages, and the dawn of growth is approaching.</b></p><p><ul><li>High-frequency data from the United States shows that the U.S. economy, especially the service sector, continues to recover strongly, with the PMI continuing to hit new highs. In May, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI was 61.5 and the Services PMI was 70.1, both higher than the previous values and continuing to reach record highs, marking the 11th consecutive month that they have been above the expansion/contraction threshold. The accelerated expansion of the U.S. service sector is mainly due to the large-scale rollout of vaccines. The rising labor force participation rate in the United States has benefited from increased opportunities in the service sector, and some of the lower-educated and younger workforce has returned to the labor market.</p><p></li><li><b>U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers' inventory levels and year-on-year growth rates have surpassed pre-pandemic highs, while retail inventories are lagging significantly behind. The peak of US demand growth has been reached, and inventory replenishment is in the second half.</b>Overall, supported by fiscal stimulus, commodity consumption rose rapidly in the first quarter, leading to a decline in actual inventories. However, a serious mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up inflation, causing nominal inventory to rise instead of fall. Inventory changes in the first quarter were mainly driven by demand, but looking ahead, the peak of fiscal stimulus growth in the United States has passed, and residents' disposable income declined significantly in April, which may lead to a rapid decline in demand.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, opportunities are emerging in China's advanced manufacturing sector, especially leading midstream and downstream manufacturing companies with scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which will benefit from the easing of cost pressures.</b></p><p><ul><li>Since May, in response to the rapid rise in commodity prices, the State Council Executive Meeting, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have made multiple statements, attaching great importance to the adverse effects of rising commodity prices and demanding a comprehensive curb on the unreasonable rise in commodity prices.<b>Regulating unreasonable prices of upstream commodities will help alleviate cost pressures on downstream manufacturing enterprises, and cyclical stocks are expected to transition from the traditional cyclical rally in the midstream and upstream to the midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors.</b></p><p></li><li><b>China's manufacturing investment exceeded seasonal growth month-on-month, indicating improved momentum.</b>In April 2021, manufacturing investment increased by 23.8% year-on-year and still higher than the seasonal average from 2015 to 2019, significantly boosting fixed asset investment and outperforming real estate and infrastructure.<b>Improved manufacturing investment indicates that external demand continues to support the economy.</b>In April 2021, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 32.3% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 30.6%. In April 2021, industrial enterprise profits maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.0%.</p><p></li></ul><b>1.3 Investment Recommendation: Actively seize the opportunity to go long and select high-value growth stocks and high-performing value stocks.</b></p><p><b>Market Outlook:</b>Currently, the A-share market has formed a strong consensus expectation of a century-long rally, and risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market has also been positively boosted. However, considering the overall high valuation of global stock markets and the numerous political, economic and pandemic variables, the market will fluctuate upwards, and it is not advisable to blindly chase the highs. If there are short-term fluctuations, it is actually a buying opportunity.</p><p><b>Investment Strategy: Return to the long-term logic of growth, carefully select advanced manufacturing, technology, and new consumption, and allocate deep value.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>There are greater opportunities to select advanced manufacturing industries, especially small and medium-sized science and technology innovation \"little giants\".</b>Focusing on the Jugra cycle in advanced manufacturing, especially benefiting from China's \"14th Five-Year Plan\" in the second half of the year.<b>Intelligent manufacturing, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, high-end military manufacturing, and new energy are promising sectors.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Selected Hong Kong-listed leading new economy companies with high earnings growth and reasonable cost-effectiveness include pharmaceuticals, TMT, branded consumption, trendy consumption, and property management.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Based on deep value, defense and counter-attack</b>This includes leading state-owned enterprises, securities firms, banks, real estate companies, and insurance companies that have the ability and willingness to release profits.</p><p></li></ul></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong: Don't stop going long in June; liquidity between China and the US won't be tight.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong: Don't stop going long in June; liquidity between China and the US won't be tight.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-01 21:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>1. Hong Kong Stock Allocation Strategy for June</b></p><p><b>1.1 Review: The May strategy, \"No poverty in May, buy on dips,\" has been validated—the quarterly correction that began in February came to an end by the end of April, and a quarterly bull window is expected by mid-May at the latest.</b></p><p><ul><li>In early September 2020, we began recommending going long on Hong Kong stocks at low levels, and in the context of recovery, we recommended revaluing core cyclical assets.</p><p></li><li>At the end of January 2021, when sentiment in Hong Kong stocks was high, we began to pour cold water on it, warning that there was also a risk of correction in the bull market. In late February, we proposed that the construction of the \"gold pit\" would not be completed until the second quarter.</p><p></li><li><b>At the end of March, we compared the market performance in 2021 to that in 2010—policies returned to normalcy, the stock market valuation system was reassessed, and structural risks were released.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Early April Spring Strategy 20210407 \"A Newborn Calf Is Not Afraid of a Tiger\" Judgment</b>US stocks experienced increased volatility in the second quarter, but this was not a systemic risk, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to complete the bottom of the golden pit that began in March.</p><p></li><li><b>In early May, an article titled \"Not Poor in May, Buy on Dips\" pointed out that the quarterly adjustment that began in February had come to an end by the end of April, and a quarterly-level bull window would arrive no later than mid-May. It was advisable to buy on dips.</b>Actively seize profit-driven structural market trends.</p><p></li><li><b>May 14th, \"Gold Pit Rally Celebrates Centennial Celebration: STAR Market Leads Long Bull Market in 'Future Core Assets'\"</b>China reiterated that<b>The US continues its easing policy, and the policy environment is warming ahead of China's centennial celebrations. After the \"golden pit\" in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, there is a window of opportunity for buying, reminding investors to plan for new structural market trends.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1.2 Outlook: Bulls will continue in June, liquidity in both China and the US will not be tight, and short-term market volatility is a buying opportunity.</b></p><p><b>First, there's no turning back the tide. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain dovish at its June policy meeting, and even if inflation continues to rise in May, it will tolerate inflation and remain dovish. The biggest difference between the market performance in May and June this year and the previous \"May poverty and June disasters\" is that the economy has recovered but liquidity has not tightened.</b></p><p><ul><li>U.S. inflation data for May is expected to continue rising, which could trigger minor fluctuations in the stock market in June, but is not a systemic risk. Under the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy framework, there is a greater emphasis on employment and data dependence. Currently, the US stock market is heavily indebted and the US unemployment rate remains high, making it unlikely that the Fed will tighten its grip. The market volatility following the rise in inflation in April, as well as the Federal Reserve's stance, have confirmed our predictions.</p><p></li><li>The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repos (ON RRP) have been rising recently. This is because the issuance of fiscal subsidies has led to abnormally loose liquidity in the financial market. Financial institutions have surplus funds and are participating in reverse repos in large quantities. The Fed's passive withdrawal of liquidity does not mean that the Fed is actively tightening.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the US inventory replenishment cycle has reached its later stages, commodity prices are in their later stages, and the dawn of growth is approaching.</b></p><p><ul><li>High-frequency data from the United States shows that the U.S. economy, especially the service sector, continues to recover strongly, with the PMI continuing to hit new highs. In May, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI was 61.5 and the Services PMI was 70.1, both higher than the previous values and continuing to reach record highs, marking the 11th consecutive month that they have been above the expansion/contraction threshold. The accelerated expansion of the U.S. service sector is mainly due to the large-scale rollout of vaccines. The rising labor force participation rate in the United States has benefited from increased opportunities in the service sector, and some of the lower-educated and younger workforce has returned to the labor market.</p><p></li><li><b>U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers' inventory levels and year-on-year growth rates have surpassed pre-pandemic highs, while retail inventories are lagging significantly behind. The peak of US demand growth has been reached, and inventory replenishment is in the second half.</b>Overall, supported by fiscal stimulus, commodity consumption rose rapidly in the first quarter, leading to a decline in actual inventories. However, a serious mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up inflation, causing nominal inventory to rise instead of fall. Inventory changes in the first quarter were mainly driven by demand, but looking ahead, the peak of fiscal stimulus growth in the United States has passed, and residents' disposable income declined significantly in April, which may lead to a rapid decline in demand.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, opportunities are emerging in China's advanced manufacturing sector, especially leading midstream and downstream manufacturing companies with scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which will benefit from the easing of cost pressures.</b></p><p><ul><li>Since May, in response to the rapid rise in commodity prices, the State Council Executive Meeting, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have made multiple statements, attaching great importance to the adverse effects of rising commodity prices and demanding a comprehensive curb on the unreasonable rise in commodity prices.<b>Regulating unreasonable prices of upstream commodities will help alleviate cost pressures on downstream manufacturing enterprises, and cyclical stocks are expected to transition from the traditional cyclical rally in the midstream and upstream to the midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors.</b></p><p></li><li><b>China's manufacturing investment exceeded seasonal growth month-on-month, indicating improved momentum.</b>In April 2021, manufacturing investment increased by 23.8% year-on-year and still higher than the seasonal average from 2015 to 2019, significantly boosting fixed asset investment and outperforming real estate and infrastructure.<b>Improved manufacturing investment indicates that external demand continues to support the economy.</b>In April 2021, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 32.3% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 30.6%. In April 2021, industrial enterprise profits maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.0%.</p><p></li></ul><b>1.3 Investment Recommendation: Actively seize the opportunity to go long and select high-value growth stocks and high-performing value stocks.</b></p><p><b>Market Outlook:</b>Currently, the A-share market has formed a strong consensus expectation of a century-long rally, and risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market has also been positively boosted. However, considering the overall high valuation of global stock markets and the numerous political, economic and pandemic variables, the market will fluctuate upwards, and it is not advisable to blindly chase the highs. If there are short-term fluctuations, it is actually a buying opportunity.</p><p><b>Investment Strategy: Return to the long-term logic of growth, carefully select advanced manufacturing, technology, and new consumption, and allocate deep value.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>There are greater opportunities to select advanced manufacturing industries, especially small and medium-sized science and technology innovation \"little giants\".</b>Focusing on the Jugra cycle in advanced manufacturing, especially benefiting from China's \"14th Five-Year Plan\" in the second half of the year.<b>Intelligent manufacturing, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, high-end military manufacturing, and new energy are promising sectors.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Selected Hong Kong-listed leading new economy companies with high earnings growth and reasonable cost-effectiveness include pharmaceuticals, TMT, branded consumption, trendy consumption, and property management.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Based on deep value, defense and counter-attack</b>This includes leading state-owned enterprises, securities firms, banks, real estate companies, and insurance companies that have the ability and willingness to release profits.</p><p></li></ul></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b1a2d7cb6155a301d235b7b7ece66b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169153092","content_text":"1、6月港股配置思路1.1、回顾：5月策略《五月不穷，逢低做多》得到验证——2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期2020年9月上旬我们开始在低位推荐做多港股，在复苏背景下推荐周期核心资产的价值重估。2021年1月底，我们在港股情绪亢奋时，开始泼冷水、提示牛市也有调整风险。2月下旬，我们提出「黄金坑」构筑完成要到二季度。3月底，我们将2021年的行情类比2010年——政策回归正常化，而股市估值体系重估、结构性风险释放。4月初春季策略20210407《初生牛犊不怕虎》判断，二季度美股行情波动放大，但并非系统性风险，而A股和港股有望完成3月份开始的黄金坑底部区域。5月初《五月不穷，逢低做多》指出：2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期，要逢低做多，积极把握盈利驱动型的结构性行情。5月14日《黄金坑后行情献礼百年庆，科创板引领「未来核心资产」长牛》中再度强调，美国宽松继续，中国百年大庆前政策环境转暖，A股港股「黄金坑」之后是做多窗口期，提醒投资者布局新的结构性行情。1.2、展望：6月做多不停歇，中美流动性都不会紧，短期市场波动是买点首先，覆水难收，美联储6月份议息会议有望继续鸽派，即便5月份通胀继续走高，也会容忍通胀而坚持鸽派。今年这个5、6月行情之所以跟以往的「五穷六绝」大不同，最大的区别在于：经济复苏但是流动性却没有收紧。5月份的美国通胀数据有望继续走高，可能会引发6月股市的小波折，但不是系统性风险。在美联储新货币政策框架下，更强调就业以及数据依赖，当前美股债台高筑、美国失业率依然高企，美联储不可能收紧。4月份通胀走高之后的市场波折以及美联储的态度，已验证了我们的预判。近期美联储隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）规模持续走高，原因在于财政补贴的发放导致金融市场流动性异常宽松，金融机构资金富余大量参与逆回购，美联储被动回收流动性，并不意味着联储主动收紧。第二，美国补库存周期已至后半段，商品行情到后期，成长曙光来临。美国高频数据显示美国经济，尤其是服务业，复苏继续强劲，PMI持续创新高。5月份，美国Markit制造业PMI为61.5，服务业PMI为70.1，均高于前值并持续创出历史新高，连续11个月处于荣枯线之上。美国服务业加速扩张，主要得益于疫苗的大规模接种普及。美国劳动参与率上升，受益于服务业机会增多，低学历、低龄劳动力已部分流回劳动力市场。美国制造商、批发商库存水平和同比增速已超过疫情前高点，零售库存大幅落后。美国需求增速高点已现，补库存已到后半段。整体而言，一季度在财政刺激的支持下，商品消费快速上升，导致了实际库存的下降。但严重的供需错配推升了通货膨胀，导致名义库存量不降反升。一季度库存变化主要由需求层面带动，但往后来看，美国的财政刺激增速高点已过，4月份居民可支配收入出现明显回落，需求端或较快回落。第三，中国的先进制造业机会来临，特别是具有科创能力的中下游制造业龙头，后续将受益于成本压力的缓解。5月以来，针对大宗商品价格的过快上涨，国常会、发改委等部门先后多次表态，高度重视大宗商品价格攀升带来的不利影响，要求全方位遏制大宗商品价格不合理上涨。对上游大宗商品不合理价格的调控，将有助于减缓下游制造业企业成本压力，周期股行情有望从中上游传统周期向中游和偏下游制造业进行过渡。中国制造业投资环比超季节性，动力改善。2021年4月，制造业投资当月同比增长23.8%，环比仍高于2015-2019年季节性规律均值，对固定资产投资的拉动明显提升，强于地产和基建。制造业投资改善表明外需对经济的支撑作用仍在延续。2021年4月中国出口（以美元计）同比增长32.3%，高于前值的30.6%。2021年4月工业企业利润维持高速增长，同比增速为57.0%。1.3、投资建议：积极把握住做多时间窗口，精选高性价比的成长股和绩优价值股行情展望：目前A股市场已经形成百年大庆行情的强烈一致预期，港股市场的风险偏好也受正面提振，但考虑到，全球股市整体估值偏高、政治经济和疫情的变数众多，因此，行情将震荡上行，不宜盲目追高，若有短期波折反而是买点。投资策略：回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。精选先进制造业，特别是中小市值科创型「小巨人」的机会更大。聚焦先进制造业的朱格拉周期，特别是下半年受益于中国「十四五规划」的智能制造、新能源车、半导体、军工高端制造、新能源等值得看好。业绩高增长且性价比合适的港股新经济龙头，精选医药、TMT、品牌消费、新潮消费、物业等。立足深度价值，防守反击，包括有能力和有意愿释放利润的国企龙头、券商、银行、地产、保险等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":119553151,"gmtCreate":1622556082273,"gmtModify":1704186261681,"author":{"id":"3558657583202309","authorId":"3558657583202309","name":"红色金刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea5179e1529674f308547e56f26874","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558657583202309","authorIdStr":"3558657583202309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OKOK","listText":"OKOK","text":"OKOK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119553151","repostId":"1169153092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169153092","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1622552687,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169153092?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-01 21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: Don't stop going long in June; liquidity between China and the US won't be tight.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169153092","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。","content":"<p><b>1. Hong Kong Stock Allocation Strategy for June</b></p><p><b>1.1 Review: The May strategy, \"No poverty in May, buy on dips,\" has been validated—the quarterly correction that began in February came to an end by the end of April, and a quarterly bull window is expected by mid-May at the latest.</b></p><p><ul><li>In early September 2020, we began recommending going long on Hong Kong stocks at low levels, and in the context of recovery, we recommended revaluing core cyclical assets.</p><p></li><li>At the end of January 2021, when sentiment in Hong Kong stocks was high, we began to pour cold water on it, warning that there was also a risk of correction in the bull market. In late February, we proposed that the construction of the \"gold pit\" would not be completed until the second quarter.</p><p></li><li><b>At the end of March, we compared the market performance in 2021 to that in 2010—policies returned to normalcy, the stock market valuation system was reassessed, and structural risks were released.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Early April Spring Strategy 20210407 \"A Newborn Calf Is Not Afraid of a Tiger\" Judgment</b>US stocks experienced increased volatility in the second quarter, but this was not a systemic risk, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to complete the bottom of the golden pit that began in March.</p><p></li><li><b>In early May, an article titled \"Not Poor in May, Buy on Dips\" pointed out that the quarterly adjustment that began in February had come to an end by the end of April, and a quarterly-level bull window would arrive no later than mid-May. It was advisable to buy on dips.</b>Actively seize profit-driven structural market trends.</p><p></li><li><b>May 14th, \"Gold Pit Rally Celebrates Centennial Celebration: STAR Market Leads Long Bull Market in 'Future Core Assets'\"</b>China reiterated that<b>The US continues its easing policy, and the policy environment is warming ahead of China's centennial celebrations. After the \"golden pit\" in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, there is a window of opportunity for buying, reminding investors to plan for new structural market trends.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1.2 Outlook: Bulls will continue in June, liquidity in both China and the US will not be tight, and short-term market volatility is a buying opportunity.</b></p><p><b>First, there's no turning back the tide. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain dovish at its June policy meeting, and even if inflation continues to rise in May, it will tolerate inflation and remain dovish. The biggest difference between the market performance in May and June this year and the previous \"May poverty and June disasters\" is that the economy has recovered but liquidity has not tightened.</b></p><p><ul><li>U.S. inflation data for May is expected to continue rising, which could trigger minor fluctuations in the stock market in June, but is not a systemic risk. Under the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy framework, there is a greater emphasis on employment and data dependence. Currently, the US stock market is heavily indebted and the US unemployment rate remains high, making it unlikely that the Fed will tighten its grip. The market volatility following the rise in inflation in April, as well as the Federal Reserve's stance, have confirmed our predictions.</p><p></li><li>The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repos (ON RRP) have been rising recently. This is because the issuance of fiscal subsidies has led to abnormally loose liquidity in the financial market. Financial institutions have surplus funds and are participating in reverse repos in large quantities. The Fed's passive withdrawal of liquidity does not mean that the Fed is actively tightening.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the US inventory replenishment cycle has reached its later stages, commodity prices are in their later stages, and the dawn of growth is approaching.</b></p><p><ul><li>High-frequency data from the United States shows that the U.S. economy, especially the service sector, continues to recover strongly, with the PMI continuing to hit new highs. In May, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI was 61.5 and the Services PMI was 70.1, both higher than the previous values and continuing to reach record highs, marking the 11th consecutive month that they have been above the expansion/contraction threshold. The accelerated expansion of the U.S. service sector is mainly due to the large-scale rollout of vaccines. The rising labor force participation rate in the United States has benefited from increased opportunities in the service sector, and some of the lower-educated and younger workforce has returned to the labor market.</p><p></li><li><b>U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers' inventory levels and year-on-year growth rates have surpassed pre-pandemic highs, while retail inventories are lagging significantly behind. The peak of US demand growth has been reached, and inventory replenishment is in the second half.</b>Overall, supported by fiscal stimulus, commodity consumption rose rapidly in the first quarter, leading to a decline in actual inventories. However, a serious mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up inflation, causing nominal inventory to rise instead of fall. Inventory changes in the first quarter were mainly driven by demand, but looking ahead, the peak of fiscal stimulus growth in the United States has passed, and residents' disposable income declined significantly in April, which may lead to a rapid decline in demand.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, opportunities are emerging in China's advanced manufacturing sector, especially leading midstream and downstream manufacturing companies with scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which will benefit from the easing of cost pressures.</b></p><p><ul><li>Since May, in response to the rapid rise in commodity prices, the State Council Executive Meeting, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have made multiple statements, attaching great importance to the adverse effects of rising commodity prices and demanding a comprehensive curb on the unreasonable rise in commodity prices.<b>Regulating unreasonable prices of upstream commodities will help alleviate cost pressures on downstream manufacturing enterprises, and cyclical stocks are expected to transition from the traditional cyclical rally in the midstream and upstream to the midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors.</b></p><p></li><li><b>China's manufacturing investment exceeded seasonal growth month-on-month, indicating improved momentum.</b>In April 2021, manufacturing investment increased by 23.8% year-on-year and still higher than the seasonal average from 2015 to 2019, significantly boosting fixed asset investment and outperforming real estate and infrastructure.<b>Improved manufacturing investment indicates that external demand continues to support the economy.</b>In April 2021, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 32.3% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 30.6%. In April 2021, industrial enterprise profits maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.0%.</p><p></li></ul><b>1.3 Investment Recommendation: Actively seize the opportunity to go long and select high-value growth stocks and high-performing value stocks.</b></p><p><b>Market Outlook:</b>Currently, the A-share market has formed a strong consensus expectation of a century-long rally, and risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market has also been positively boosted. However, considering the overall high valuation of global stock markets and the numerous political, economic and pandemic variables, the market will fluctuate upwards, and it is not advisable to blindly chase the highs. If there are short-term fluctuations, it is actually a buying opportunity.</p><p><b>Investment Strategy: Return to the long-term logic of growth, carefully select advanced manufacturing, technology, and new consumption, and allocate deep value.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>There are greater opportunities to select advanced manufacturing industries, especially small and medium-sized science and technology innovation \"little giants\".</b>Focusing on the Jugra cycle in advanced manufacturing, especially benefiting from China's \"14th Five-Year Plan\" in the second half of the year.<b>Intelligent manufacturing, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, high-end military manufacturing, and new energy are promising sectors.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Selected Hong Kong-listed leading new economy companies with high earnings growth and reasonable cost-effectiveness include pharmaceuticals, TMT, branded consumption, trendy consumption, and property management.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Based on deep value, defense and counter-attack</b>This includes leading state-owned enterprises, securities firms, banks, real estate companies, and insurance companies that have the ability and willingness to release profits.</p><p></li></ul></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong: Don't stop going long in June; liquidity between China and the US won't be tight.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong: Don't stop going long in June; liquidity between China and the US won't be tight.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-01 21:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>1. Hong Kong Stock Allocation Strategy for June</b></p><p><b>1.1 Review: The May strategy, \"No poverty in May, buy on dips,\" has been validated—the quarterly correction that began in February came to an end by the end of April, and a quarterly bull window is expected by mid-May at the latest.</b></p><p><ul><li>In early September 2020, we began recommending going long on Hong Kong stocks at low levels, and in the context of recovery, we recommended revaluing core cyclical assets.</p><p></li><li>At the end of January 2021, when sentiment in Hong Kong stocks was high, we began to pour cold water on it, warning that there was also a risk of correction in the bull market. In late February, we proposed that the construction of the \"gold pit\" would not be completed until the second quarter.</p><p></li><li><b>At the end of March, we compared the market performance in 2021 to that in 2010—policies returned to normalcy, the stock market valuation system was reassessed, and structural risks were released.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Early April Spring Strategy 20210407 \"A Newborn Calf Is Not Afraid of a Tiger\" Judgment</b>US stocks experienced increased volatility in the second quarter, but this was not a systemic risk, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to complete the bottom of the golden pit that began in March.</p><p></li><li><b>In early May, an article titled \"Not Poor in May, Buy on Dips\" pointed out that the quarterly adjustment that began in February had come to an end by the end of April, and a quarterly-level bull window would arrive no later than mid-May. It was advisable to buy on dips.</b>Actively seize profit-driven structural market trends.</p><p></li><li><b>May 14th, \"Gold Pit Rally Celebrates Centennial Celebration: STAR Market Leads Long Bull Market in 'Future Core Assets'\"</b>China reiterated that<b>The US continues its easing policy, and the policy environment is warming ahead of China's centennial celebrations. After the \"golden pit\" in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, there is a window of opportunity for buying, reminding investors to plan for new structural market trends.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1.2 Outlook: Bulls will continue in June, liquidity in both China and the US will not be tight, and short-term market volatility is a buying opportunity.</b></p><p><b>First, there's no turning back the tide. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain dovish at its June policy meeting, and even if inflation continues to rise in May, it will tolerate inflation and remain dovish. The biggest difference between the market performance in May and June this year and the previous \"May poverty and June disasters\" is that the economy has recovered but liquidity has not tightened.</b></p><p><ul><li>U.S. inflation data for May is expected to continue rising, which could trigger minor fluctuations in the stock market in June, but is not a systemic risk. Under the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy framework, there is a greater emphasis on employment and data dependence. Currently, the US stock market is heavily indebted and the US unemployment rate remains high, making it unlikely that the Fed will tighten its grip. The market volatility following the rise in inflation in April, as well as the Federal Reserve's stance, have confirmed our predictions.</p><p></li><li>The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repos (ON RRP) have been rising recently. This is because the issuance of fiscal subsidies has led to abnormally loose liquidity in the financial market. Financial institutions have surplus funds and are participating in reverse repos in large quantities. The Fed's passive withdrawal of liquidity does not mean that the Fed is actively tightening.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the US inventory replenishment cycle has reached its later stages, commodity prices are in their later stages, and the dawn of growth is approaching.</b></p><p><ul><li>High-frequency data from the United States shows that the U.S. economy, especially the service sector, continues to recover strongly, with the PMI continuing to hit new highs. In May, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI was 61.5 and the Services PMI was 70.1, both higher than the previous values and continuing to reach record highs, marking the 11th consecutive month that they have been above the expansion/contraction threshold. The accelerated expansion of the U.S. service sector is mainly due to the large-scale rollout of vaccines. The rising labor force participation rate in the United States has benefited from increased opportunities in the service sector, and some of the lower-educated and younger workforce has returned to the labor market.</p><p></li><li><b>U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers' inventory levels and year-on-year growth rates have surpassed pre-pandemic highs, while retail inventories are lagging significantly behind. The peak of US demand growth has been reached, and inventory replenishment is in the second half.</b>Overall, supported by fiscal stimulus, commodity consumption rose rapidly in the first quarter, leading to a decline in actual inventories. However, a serious mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up inflation, causing nominal inventory to rise instead of fall. Inventory changes in the first quarter were mainly driven by demand, but looking ahead, the peak of fiscal stimulus growth in the United States has passed, and residents' disposable income declined significantly in April, which may lead to a rapid decline in demand.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, opportunities are emerging in China's advanced manufacturing sector, especially leading midstream and downstream manufacturing companies with scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which will benefit from the easing of cost pressures.</b></p><p><ul><li>Since May, in response to the rapid rise in commodity prices, the State Council Executive Meeting, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have made multiple statements, attaching great importance to the adverse effects of rising commodity prices and demanding a comprehensive curb on the unreasonable rise in commodity prices.<b>Regulating unreasonable prices of upstream commodities will help alleviate cost pressures on downstream manufacturing enterprises, and cyclical stocks are expected to transition from the traditional cyclical rally in the midstream and upstream to the midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors.</b></p><p></li><li><b>China's manufacturing investment exceeded seasonal growth month-on-month, indicating improved momentum.</b>In April 2021, manufacturing investment increased by 23.8% year-on-year and still higher than the seasonal average from 2015 to 2019, significantly boosting fixed asset investment and outperforming real estate and infrastructure.<b>Improved manufacturing investment indicates that external demand continues to support the economy.</b>In April 2021, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 32.3% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 30.6%. In April 2021, industrial enterprise profits maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.0%.</p><p></li></ul><b>1.3 Investment Recommendation: Actively seize the opportunity to go long and select high-value growth stocks and high-performing value stocks.</b></p><p><b>Market Outlook:</b>Currently, the A-share market has formed a strong consensus expectation of a century-long rally, and risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market has also been positively boosted. However, considering the overall high valuation of global stock markets and the numerous political, economic and pandemic variables, the market will fluctuate upwards, and it is not advisable to blindly chase the highs. If there are short-term fluctuations, it is actually a buying opportunity.</p><p><b>Investment Strategy: Return to the long-term logic of growth, carefully select advanced manufacturing, technology, and new consumption, and allocate deep value.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>There are greater opportunities to select advanced manufacturing industries, especially small and medium-sized science and technology innovation \"little giants\".</b>Focusing on the Jugra cycle in advanced manufacturing, especially benefiting from China's \"14th Five-Year Plan\" in the second half of the year.<b>Intelligent manufacturing, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, high-end military manufacturing, and new energy are promising sectors.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Selected Hong Kong-listed leading new economy companies with high earnings growth and reasonable cost-effectiveness include pharmaceuticals, TMT, branded consumption, trendy consumption, and property management.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Based on deep value, defense and counter-attack</b>This includes leading state-owned enterprises, securities firms, banks, real estate companies, and insurance companies that have the ability and willingness to release profits.</p><p></li></ul></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b1a2d7cb6155a301d235b7b7ece66b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169153092","content_text":"1、6月港股配置思路1.1、回顾：5月策略《五月不穷，逢低做多》得到验证——2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期2020年9月上旬我们开始在低位推荐做多港股，在复苏背景下推荐周期核心资产的价值重估。2021年1月底，我们在港股情绪亢奋时，开始泼冷水、提示牛市也有调整风险。2月下旬，我们提出「黄金坑」构筑完成要到二季度。3月底，我们将2021年的行情类比2010年——政策回归正常化，而股市估值体系重估、结构性风险释放。4月初春季策略20210407《初生牛犊不怕虎》判断，二季度美股行情波动放大，但并非系统性风险，而A股和港股有望完成3月份开始的黄金坑底部区域。5月初《五月不穷，逢低做多》指出：2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期，要逢低做多，积极把握盈利驱动型的结构性行情。5月14日《黄金坑后行情献礼百年庆，科创板引领「未来核心资产」长牛》中再度强调，美国宽松继续，中国百年大庆前政策环境转暖，A股港股「黄金坑」之后是做多窗口期，提醒投资者布局新的结构性行情。1.2、展望：6月做多不停歇，中美流动性都不会紧，短期市场波动是买点首先，覆水难收，美联储6月份议息会议有望继续鸽派，即便5月份通胀继续走高，也会容忍通胀而坚持鸽派。今年这个5、6月行情之所以跟以往的「五穷六绝」大不同，最大的区别在于：经济复苏但是流动性却没有收紧。5月份的美国通胀数据有望继续走高，可能会引发6月股市的小波折，但不是系统性风险。在美联储新货币政策框架下，更强调就业以及数据依赖，当前美股债台高筑、美国失业率依然高企，美联储不可能收紧。4月份通胀走高之后的市场波折以及美联储的态度，已验证了我们的预判。近期美联储隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）规模持续走高，原因在于财政补贴的发放导致金融市场流动性异常宽松，金融机构资金富余大量参与逆回购，美联储被动回收流动性，并不意味着联储主动收紧。第二，美国补库存周期已至后半段，商品行情到后期，成长曙光来临。美国高频数据显示美国经济，尤其是服务业，复苏继续强劲，PMI持续创新高。5月份，美国Markit制造业PMI为61.5，服务业PMI为70.1，均高于前值并持续创出历史新高，连续11个月处于荣枯线之上。美国服务业加速扩张，主要得益于疫苗的大规模接种普及。美国劳动参与率上升，受益于服务业机会增多，低学历、低龄劳动力已部分流回劳动力市场。美国制造商、批发商库存水平和同比增速已超过疫情前高点，零售库存大幅落后。美国需求增速高点已现，补库存已到后半段。整体而言，一季度在财政刺激的支持下，商品消费快速上升，导致了实际库存的下降。但严重的供需错配推升了通货膨胀，导致名义库存量不降反升。一季度库存变化主要由需求层面带动，但往后来看，美国的财政刺激增速高点已过，4月份居民可支配收入出现明显回落，需求端或较快回落。第三，中国的先进制造业机会来临，特别是具有科创能力的中下游制造业龙头，后续将受益于成本压力的缓解。5月以来，针对大宗商品价格的过快上涨，国常会、发改委等部门先后多次表态，高度重视大宗商品价格攀升带来的不利影响，要求全方位遏制大宗商品价格不合理上涨。对上游大宗商品不合理价格的调控，将有助于减缓下游制造业企业成本压力，周期股行情有望从中上游传统周期向中游和偏下游制造业进行过渡。中国制造业投资环比超季节性，动力改善。2021年4月，制造业投资当月同比增长23.8%，环比仍高于2015-2019年季节性规律均值，对固定资产投资的拉动明显提升，强于地产和基建。制造业投资改善表明外需对经济的支撑作用仍在延续。2021年4月中国出口（以美元计）同比增长32.3%，高于前值的30.6%。2021年4月工业企业利润维持高速增长，同比增速为57.0%。1.3、投资建议：积极把握住做多时间窗口，精选高性价比的成长股和绩优价值股行情展望：目前A股市场已经形成百年大庆行情的强烈一致预期，港股市场的风险偏好也受正面提振，但考虑到，全球股市整体估值偏高、政治经济和疫情的变数众多，因此，行情将震荡上行，不宜盲目追高，若有短期波折反而是买点。投资策略：回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。精选先进制造业，特别是中小市值科创型「小巨人」的机会更大。聚焦先进制造业的朱格拉周期，特别是下半年受益于中国「十四五规划」的智能制造、新能源车、半导体、军工高端制造、新能源等值得看好。业绩高增长且性价比合适的港股新经济龙头，精选医药、TMT、品牌消费、新潮消费、物业等。立足深度价值，防守反击，包括有能力和有意愿释放利润的国企龙头、券商、银行、地产、保险等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192709320908896,"gmtCreate":1688090092824,"gmtModify":1688090095771,"author":{"id":"3558657583202309","authorId":"3558657583202309","name":"红色金刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea5179e1529674f308547e56f26874","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558657583202309","authorIdStr":"3558657583202309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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19:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Insiders confirm that BYD will supply Tesla with \"blade batteries\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144424668","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款","content":"<p>According to a report by US-Hong Kong Telegraph, some media outlets recently reported that they learned from multiple informed sources that...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>It will be launched in the second quarter of next year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Supply \"blade batteries\". Today, an insider at BYD revealed to the media that it is true that BYD will supply \"blade batteries\" to Tesla, and that the first Model may be the Model Y.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Insiders confirm that BYD will supply Tesla with \"blade batteries\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInsiders confirm that BYD will supply Tesla with \"blade batteries\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-06 19:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to a report by US-Hong Kong Telegraph, some media outlets recently reported that they learned from multiple informed sources that...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>It will be launched in the second quarter of next year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Supply \"blade batteries\". Today, an insider at BYD revealed to the media that it is true that BYD will supply \"blade batteries\" to Tesla, and that the first Model may be the Model Y.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144424668","content_text":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款车型或为Model Y。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"01211":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
