猫咪b personal page - To The Moon

猫咪b

猫咪b

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2021-09-01

Will up continuously????

2021-08-25

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$when can break even?

2021-05-25

........

2021-05-21

Agreed

US requires crypto digital currency transactions over $10,000 to be reported to IRS

2021-05-20

Someone manipulate the market????

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-07

Rich ppl will do.....

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-07

I'm strongly agree...

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-07

I strongly agree.....

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-03

Really???

When will the global chip "shortage" be? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022

2021-05-02

.....

Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?

2021-03-26

Keep dropping??

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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up continuously????","listText":"Will up continuously????","text":"Will up continuously????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6d60b554fc381f41f27c2966fbeda3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816282654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837280856,"gmtCreate":1629893344275,"gmtModify":1676530164128,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$when can break even?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8809d8de42a5ff84d4a1635de349af07","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837280856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138563168,"gmtCreate":1621950089254,"gmtModify":1704364992652,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"........","listText":"........","text":"........","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81e86dcd83b3249220460dac0a613d31","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138563168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130667342,"gmtCreate":1621542701486,"gmtModify":1704359265045,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agreed","listText":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130667342","repostId":"1127507761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127507761","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621526566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127507761?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 00:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"US requires crypto digital currency transactions over $10,000 to be reported to IRS","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127507761","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。","content":"<p>The Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include requiring cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 to be reported to the IRS, the Treasury Department said.</p><p>\"Like cash transactions, businesses that receive cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 will also be required to report\" the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury says comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize incentives and opportunities to divert revenue away from the new information reporting regime, although cryptocurrencies represent only a small percentage of current business transactions. The IRS added a line on cryptocurrencies to individual tax returns 1040 in 2020 to get more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000/piece. The Blockchain sector of U.S. stocks fell in the short term, with Coinbase's gains narrowing to 2.4%, The9 gains narrowing to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowing to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain falling more than 1%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US requires crypto digital currency transactions over $10,000 to be reported to IRS</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS requires crypto digital currency transactions over $10,000 to be reported to IRS\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-21 00:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include requiring cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 to be reported to the IRS, the Treasury Department said.</p><p>\"Like cash transactions, businesses that receive cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 will also be required to report\" the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury says comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize incentives and opportunities to divert revenue away from the new information reporting regime, although cryptocurrencies represent only a small percentage of current business transactions. The IRS added a line on cryptocurrencies to individual tax returns 1040 in 2020 to get more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000/piece. The Blockchain sector of U.S. stocks fell in the short term, with Coinbase's gains narrowing to 2.4%, The9 gains narrowing to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowing to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain falling more than 1%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127507761","content_text":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。美国国税局于2020年在个人纳税申报单1040中增加了一行关于加密货币的内容，以获得更多关于虚拟货币交易的信息。比特币短线走低约600美元，现跌破41000美元/枚。美股区块链板块短线走低，Coinbase涨幅缩窄至2.4%，第九城市涨幅收窄至1.7%，嘉楠科技涨幅收窄至1.17%，Riot Blockchain跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197845101,"gmtCreate":1621447089203,"gmtModify":1704357793908,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Someone manipulate the market????","listText":"Someone manipulate the market????","text":"Someone manipulate the market????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197845101","repostId":"1152189230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104295263,"gmtCreate":1620391956952,"gmtModify":1704342994695,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rich ppl will do.....","listText":"Rich ppl will do.....","text":"Rich ppl will do.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104295263","repostId":"1174893125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104292830,"gmtCreate":1620391875720,"gmtModify":1704342993033,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I'm strongly agree...","listText":"I'm strongly agree...","text":"I'm strongly agree...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104292830","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104298257,"gmtCreate":1620391735079,"gmtModify":1704342990358,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I strongly agree.....","listText":"I strongly agree.....","text":"I strongly agree.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104298257","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108545235,"gmtCreate":1620045768127,"gmtModify":1704337794251,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really???","listText":"Really???","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108545235","repostId":"1148368936","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148368936","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620043274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148368936?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 20:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will the global chip \"shortage\" be? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148368936","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","content":"<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global auto industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said in their latest report that this situation may continue into 2022.</p><p>They argue that many automakers will thwart their production as a result, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The output and profit forecast for the second quarter and the whole year announced last week can be regarded as the first \"profit warning\" of the automobile industry under the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>After the first quarterly report was announced, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that due to the possible further worsening of chip shortage, the planned production will be forced to reduce by 50% in the second quarter, much higher than the 17% decline in the first quarter. For all of 2021, Ford will lose $2.5 billion by cutting production of about 1.1 million vehicles due to chip issues, according to its chief financial officer John Lawler.</p><p>In late March, Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics was forced to halt production after a fire broke out at a factory owned by Ford, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>According to Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"worst example of chip supply disruption\", which is a \"reality check\" for investors investing in OEM foundry.</b></p><p>However, Ford previously had optimistic expectations for the second half of the year, believing that chip supply will bottom out in the second quarter and improve in the rest of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore say now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the EV space and \"buy the dip\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will the global chip \"shortage\" be? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will the global chip \"shortage\" be? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-03 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global auto industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said in their latest report that this situation may continue into 2022.</p><p>They argue that many automakers will thwart their production as a result, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The output and profit forecast for the second quarter and the whole year announced last week can be regarded as the first \"profit warning\" of the automobile industry under the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>After the first quarterly report was announced, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that due to the possible further worsening of chip shortage, the planned production will be forced to reduce by 50% in the second quarter, much higher than the 17% decline in the first quarter. For all of 2021, Ford will lose $2.5 billion by cutting production of about 1.1 million vehicles due to chip issues, according to its chief financial officer John Lawler.</p><p>In late March, Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics was forced to halt production after a fire broke out at a factory owned by Ford, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>According to Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"worst example of chip supply disruption\", which is a \"reality check\" for investors investing in OEM foundry.</b></p><p>However, Ford previously had optimistic expectations for the second half of the year, believing that chip supply will bottom out in the second quarter and improve in the rest of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore say now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the EV space and \"buy the dip\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148368936","content_text":"芯片供应短缺持续困扰全球汽车业，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas和Joseph Moore在最新报告中表示，这一局面或将持续到2022年。\n他们认为，许多汽车制造商将因此生产受阻，而福特汽车上周公布的二季度和全年产量、盈利预期，算是“芯片荒”下汽车业的第一个“盈利预警”。\n一季报公布后，福特CEO Jim Farley预计，由于芯片短缺可能进一步恶化，二季度计划产量将被迫减少50%，远高于一季度17%的降幅。其首席财务官John Lawler表示，2021年全年，福特将因芯片问题减产汽车约110万辆，损失25亿美元。\n3月底，福特芯片供应商瑞萨电子(Renesas Electronics)旗下一家工厂发生火灾后被迫停产，加剧全球芯片短缺。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore认为，由于规划不善，福特可能是受到“芯片供应中断影响最严重例子”，这对投资OEM代工的投资者来说，是一次“现实的检验”。\n不过，福特此前对下半年表现持乐观预期，认为芯片供应将在二季度触底，并在今年剩余时间内有所改善。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore表示，现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108095871,"gmtCreate":1619956987093,"gmtModify":1704336758995,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".....","listText":".....","text":".....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108095871","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear of supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear of supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-over-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear of supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear of supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-over-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358271966,"gmtCreate":1616712224855,"gmtModify":1704797666748,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Keep dropping??","listText":"Keep dropping??","text":"Keep dropping??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1d1d7302cf0d51835d262a408ca7b1","width":"1080","height":"2709"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358271966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":837280856,"gmtCreate":1629893344275,"gmtModify":1676530164128,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$when can break even?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8809d8de42a5ff84d4a1635de349af07","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837280856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130667342,"gmtCreate":1621542701486,"gmtModify":1704359265045,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agreed","listText":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130667342","repostId":"1127507761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127507761","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621526566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127507761?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 00:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"US requires crypto digital currency transactions over $10,000 to be reported to IRS","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127507761","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。","content":"<p>The Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include requiring cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 to be reported to the IRS, the Treasury Department said.</p><p>\"Like cash transactions, businesses that receive cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 will also be required to report\" the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury says comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize incentives and opportunities to divert revenue away from the new information reporting regime, although cryptocurrencies represent only a small percentage of current business transactions. The IRS added a line on cryptocurrencies to individual tax returns 1040 in 2020 to get more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000/piece. The Blockchain sector of U.S. stocks fell in the short term, with Coinbase's gains narrowing to 2.4%, The9 gains narrowing to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowing to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain falling more than 1%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US requires crypto digital currency transactions over $10,000 to be reported to IRS</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS requires crypto digital currency transactions over $10,000 to be reported to IRS\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-21 00:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include requiring cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 to be reported to the IRS, the Treasury Department said.</p><p>\"Like cash transactions, businesses that receive cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 will also be required to report\" the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury says comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize incentives and opportunities to divert revenue away from the new information reporting regime, although cryptocurrencies represent only a small percentage of current business transactions. The IRS added a line on cryptocurrencies to individual tax returns 1040 in 2020 to get more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000/piece. The Blockchain sector of U.S. stocks fell in the short term, with Coinbase's gains narrowing to 2.4%, The9 gains narrowing to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowing to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain falling more than 1%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127507761","content_text":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。美国国税局于2020年在个人纳税申报单1040中增加了一行关于加密货币的内容，以获得更多关于虚拟货币交易的信息。比特币短线走低约600美元，现跌破41000美元/枚。美股区块链板块短线走低，Coinbase涨幅缩窄至2.4%，第九城市涨幅收窄至1.7%，嘉楠科技涨幅收窄至1.17%，Riot Blockchain跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104292830,"gmtCreate":1620391875720,"gmtModify":1704342993033,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I'm strongly agree...","listText":"I'm strongly agree...","text":"I'm strongly agree...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104292830","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816282654,"gmtCreate":1630503885478,"gmtModify":1676530322568,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will up continuously????","listText":"Will up continuously????","text":"Will up continuously????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6d60b554fc381f41f27c2966fbeda3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816282654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138563168,"gmtCreate":1621950089254,"gmtModify":1704364992652,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"........","listText":"........","text":"........","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81e86dcd83b3249220460dac0a613d31","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138563168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197845101,"gmtCreate":1621447089203,"gmtModify":1704357793908,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Someone manipulate the market????","listText":"Someone manipulate the market????","text":"Someone manipulate the market????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197845101","repostId":"1152189230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104295263,"gmtCreate":1620391956952,"gmtModify":1704342994695,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rich ppl will do.....","listText":"Rich ppl will do.....","text":"Rich ppl will do.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104295263","repostId":"1174893125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104298257,"gmtCreate":1620391735079,"gmtModify":1704342990358,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I strongly agree.....","listText":"I strongly agree.....","text":"I strongly agree.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104298257","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108545235,"gmtCreate":1620045768127,"gmtModify":1704337794251,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really???","listText":"Really???","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108545235","repostId":"1148368936","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108095871,"gmtCreate":1619956987093,"gmtModify":1704336758995,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".....","listText":".....","text":".....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108095871","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear of supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear of supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-over-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear of supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear of supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-over-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}