Mikinyaa personal page - To The Moon

Mikinyaa

Mikinyaa

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08-05

🤡

Michael Burry, the prototype of "The Big Short," bets that the US stock market rebound is coming to an end: "We are nearing a major top, and a crash similar to that of 1987 may occur."

07-30

$美光科技(MU)$ lets go brrr

07-21

😎

07-16

$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$ come-on baby

06-18

[吃瓜]

06-12

$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$ [吃瓜]

06-10

[无语]

The AI super bull market has entered the "SpaceX moment"! Passive funds are gathering momentum and fueling the AI computing power frenzy, and the AI computing power boom is far from over.

06-09

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

06-09

🎢

06-06

[笑哭]

06-03

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

05-27

$半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$

05-27

$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$

05-12

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

03-18

$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$

03-13

$2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares(NVDL)$

01-15

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 🚀

2025-08-02

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ [财迷]

2025-07-09

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

2025-06-23

This aged like fine milk

Analysis of Unusual Movements | Circle's stock price plummeted 5.11% in overnight trading, possibly due to US regulatory uncertainty.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Michael Burry, the prototype of \"The Big Short,\" bets that the US stock market rebound is coming to an end: \"We are nearing a major top, and a crash similar to that of 1987 may occur.\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108282527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”因电影《大空头》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里，即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">focus</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry posted on Substack on Tuesday: \"I still think we may be approaching a major top and may experience a decline similar to 1987.\"</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The S&P 500 rose 1.9% on Tuesday, closing at its first all-time high since June. Better-than-expected corporate earnings and another drop in oil prices boosted the market.</p><p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Because of the movie \"The Big Short\"<span>The Big Short</span>Michael Bury, who is famous for his work<span>Michael Burry</span>Even as the S&P 500 surged to a record high, he maintained his bearish bet and warned that this rally could eventually turn into a sharp sell-off similar to the 1987 stock market crash.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry posted on Substack on Tuesday: \"I still think we may be close to a major top and may experience a decline similar to 1987, but the S&P 500's record high is likely to attract new capital into the market.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>S&P 500 Index</strong>It rose 1.9% on Tuesday, closing at its first all-time high since June. Corporate profits exceeded expectations, while oil prices fell again, raising market concerns.<strong>Strait of Hormuz</strong>Hopes of reopening to maritime transport have risen, and these factors have combined to drive the stock market higher.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Technology stocks account for a relatively high proportion<strong>Nasdaq Composite Index</strong>It surged 2.7%, bringing its cumulative gain in the first two trading days of the week alone to nearly 5%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury has been one of Wall Street's most outspoken skeptics of the artificial intelligence boom. He believes that the current demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure is largely driven by some financing arrangements that may ultimately be unsustainable.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">He stated that the market's rise is forming a...<strong>Self-reinforcing cycle</strong>As volatility decreases, systemic investors increase their market exposure, thereby further driving the market upward.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">He wrote: \"Remember that when the market rises when volatility falls, it forces volatility-targeted funds to increase leverage, and it also allows leveraged funds from other momentum strategies to come into play.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Despite the continued market rise, Bury stated that he still holds the following stocks.<strong>Short position</strong>：</p><p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Micron Technologies</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Caterpillar</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Tesla</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Application materials (Applied Materials)</strong></p><p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury said he remains confident in the long-term judgment of these short positions. However, he added that if these trades clearly go against him, he would choose to cut his losses.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">He said that these current short positions<strong>Apart from shorting Nvidia, all other companies are still profitable.</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury wrote: \"To reiterate, short selling is not for everyone. I have to short, but most people shouldn't.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael Burry, the prototype of \"The Big Short,\" bets that the US stock market rebound is coming to an end: \"We are nearing a major top, and a crash similar to that of 1987 may occur.\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael Burry, the prototype of \"The Big Short,\" bets that the US stock market rebound is coming to an end: \"We are nearing a major top, and a crash similar to that of 1987 may occur.\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-08-05 08:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">focus</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry posted on Substack on Tuesday: \"I still think we may be approaching a major top and may experience a decline similar to 1987.\"</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The S&P 500 rose 1.9% on Tuesday, closing at its first all-time high since June. Better-than-expected corporate earnings and another drop in oil prices boosted the market.</p><p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Because of the movie \"The Big Short\"<span>The Big Short</span>Michael Bury, who is famous for his work<span>Michael Burry</span>Even as the S&P 500 surged to a record high, he maintained his bearish bet and warned that this rally could eventually turn into a sharp sell-off similar to the 1987 stock market crash.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry posted on Substack on Tuesday: \"I still think we may be close to a major top and may experience a decline similar to 1987, but the S&P 500's record high is likely to attract new capital into the market.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>S&P 500 Index</strong>It rose 1.9% on Tuesday, closing at its first all-time high since June. Corporate profits exceeded expectations, while oil prices fell again, raising market concerns.<strong>Strait of Hormuz</strong>Hopes of reopening to maritime transport have risen, and these factors have combined to drive the stock market higher.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Technology stocks account for a relatively high proportion<strong>Nasdaq Composite Index</strong>It surged 2.7%, bringing its cumulative gain in the first two trading days of the week alone to nearly 5%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury has been one of Wall Street's most outspoken skeptics of the artificial intelligence boom. He believes that the current demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure is largely driven by some financing arrangements that may ultimately be unsustainable.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">He stated that the market's rise is forming a...<strong>Self-reinforcing cycle</strong>As volatility decreases, systemic investors increase their market exposure, thereby further driving the market upward.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">He wrote: \"Remember that when the market rises when volatility falls, it forces volatility-targeted funds to increase leverage, and it also allows leveraged funds from other momentum strategies to come into play.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Despite the continued market rise, Bury stated that he still holds the following stocks.<strong>Short position</strong>：</p><p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Micron Technologies</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Caterpillar</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Tesla</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Application materials (Applied Materials)</strong></p><p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury said he remains confident in the long-term judgment of these short positions. However, he added that if these trades clearly go against him, he would choose to cut his losses.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">He said that these current short positions<strong>Apart from shorting Nvidia, all other companies are still profitable.</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury wrote: \"To reiterate, short selling is not for everyone. I have to short, but most people shouldn't.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec1b39b22a82612ecf8be42d25d85963","relate_stocks":{"TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","MIC":"2倍做多MU ETF-Corgi","PLOO":"2倍上限加速PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","09366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉-U","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","PLTU":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Direxion","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","CAT":"卡特彼勒","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","MU":"美光科技","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","PLTW":"PLTR周配息ETF-Roundhill","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","PLTY":"PLTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","AMAT":"应用材料","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","PLTZ":"2倍做空PLTR ETF-Defiance","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","MUU":"2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","PLTI":"REX PLTR Growth & Income ETF","07366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","PLTA":"ProShares Ultra PLTR ETF","PLYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST PLTR ETF","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","MUYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOSTMU ETF","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","PLTD":"1倍做空PLTR ETF-Direxion","MUZ":"2倍做空MU ETF-Defiance","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","07388":"南方两倍做空英伟达","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","PLTG":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108282527","content_text":"重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利好于预期以及油价再次下跌推动了市场上涨。因电影《大空头（The Big Short）》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对霍尔木兹海峡将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。科技股占比较高的纳斯达克综合指数大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的空头头寸：iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）美光科技（Micron）英伟达（Nvidia）卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）Palantir特斯拉（Tesla）应用材料（Applied Materials）伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。他说，目前这些空头头寸除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态。伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TESL":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"07766":0.6,"AMAT":2,"PTIR":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"CAT":2,"NVDG":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"09766":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"07788":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"09366":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"07388":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"NVDA":2,"PLTW":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"TSLA":2,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"SOXX":2,"PLTD":0.6,"MU":2,"PLOO":0.6,"07366":0.6,"PLTR":2,"NVII":0.6,"MUYY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":591228084367360,"gmtCreate":1785371442253,"gmtModify":1785371445487,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorIdStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> lets go brrr","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> lets go brrr","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ lets go brrr","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/907bc3d8410d44b1c7a6bb8a7599f614","width":"898","height":"1365"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/591228084367360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":588254358745704,"gmtCreate":1784646890544,"gmtModify":1784646892588,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorIdStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😎","listText":"😎","text":"😎","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28093c13f0d1ad154f50cc921cbd329a","width":"898","height":"1364"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/588254358745704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":586471025808272,"gmtCreate":1784211508217,"gmtModify":1784212350226,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorIdStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MUU\">$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$ </a> come-on baby","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MUU\">$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$ </a> come-on baby","text":"$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$ come-on baby","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d98a164a5b86bb9703a42e2d13cd573a","width":"1448","height":"1086"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/586471025808272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":576528556077736,"gmtCreate":1781778961743,"gmtModify":1781778963738,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorIdStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[吃瓜]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[吃瓜]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[吃瓜]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6066c367427ec9c4962070bc67da12be","width":"898","height":"1364"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/576528556077736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":574316266222808,"gmtCreate":1781222329742,"gmtModify":1781222332175,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorIdStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MUU\">$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$ </a>&nbsp;[吃瓜]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MUU\">$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$ </a>&nbsp;[吃瓜]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$ [吃瓜]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b9f92d0ef1df28181dade6d0dd72f90","width":"898","height":"1347"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/574316266222808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":573714984486032,"gmtCreate":1781075399108,"gmtModify":1781075401129,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorIdStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[无语]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[无语]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/573714984486032","repostId":"2642415418","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2642415418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1781067012,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2642415418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-06-10 12:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The AI super bull market has entered the \"SpaceX moment\"! Passive funds are gathering momentum and fueling the AI computing power frenzy, and the AI computing power boom is far from over.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642415418","media":"智通财经","summary":"预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市的分析师们看来，对于席卷全球股票市场的“AI超级牛市”而言，围绕AI的全球牛市可能远未完结。也就是说，经过15天的公开市场上市交易之后，SpaceX约30%的自由流通股将由聚焦于指数ETF被动投资者们所持有，这可能会给股价持续带来上行推动力。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Recently, many financial market scholars and market observers have written articles stating that index-tracking funds (ETFs) are about to create billions of dollars in new demand for SpaceX stock.<strong>This prospect could create a feedback loop, further pushing up the stock price and overall market capitalization of the American giant founded by Elon Musk that focuses on \"space exploration + AI\".</strong>The investment and construction of AI-related infrastructure, expected to reach $3 trillion, is in full swing. Coupled with the prospect of billions of dollars in demand for SpaceX stock from index-tracking funds, some bullish analysts believe that the \"AI super bull market\" sweeping the global stock market may be far from over.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In other words, after 15 days of public market trading, approximately 30% of SpaceX's freely tradable shares will be held by passive investors focused on index ETFs, which may provide continued upward momentum to the stock price.<strong>SpaceX's record-breaking and unprecedented IPO is no longer just a single financing event, but more like an extreme stress test of its ability to absorb funds in the context of a global \"AI super bull market.\" Furthermore, some analysts believe that SpaceX may become a powerful amplifier for the AI super bull market rather than a bubble buster.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On Tuesday, Eastern Time, media outlets, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that<strong>SpaceX has attracted more than $250 billion in investor demand, far exceeding the $75 billion the company plans to raise, and is poised to become the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. If SpaceX's stock price continues to rise due to index funds and scarce circulating shares, it could attract more funds, thereby further strengthening valuation expansion. Therefore, some Wall Street analysts who remain optimistic about the global \"AI super bull market\" driven by the AI computing power frenzy believe that the AI super bull market trajectory is far from over. SpaceX is more like a beneficiary and amplifier of the AI super bull market than a \"drain-type\" terminator that the market is panicking about.</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The $250 billion subscription scale itself speaks for itself.<strong>Global venture capital's pursuit of AI computing infrastructure, commercial aerospace, and next-generation space-focused AI infrastructure assets is far from cooling down. If the market is truly on the verge of liquidity depletion, it is unlikely that there will be nearly a fourfold oversubscription.</strong>Conversely, this means that a large number of long-term funds, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, growth funds, and actively managed hedge funds are actively seeking core assets that can carry the growth narrative for the next decade.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Judging from the latest mainstream views on Wall Street, despite recent developments including ARM,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>SK Hynix and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>However, there is no pessimistic consensus on Wall Street that \"the AI super bull market is over.\" On the contrary, the opposite phenomenon has emerged: more and more large investment institutions are raising their benchmark stock index targets, and the reasons for the raises are almost all related to the wave of AI capital expenditure, the booming progress of AI infrastructure construction, and AI-driven profit expansion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wall Street commercial banking giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>A recent research report shows that, driven by a bull market in technology stocks dominated by AI computing power trading, the institution predicts that one of the benchmark US stock indices will...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>The index may break through the seemingly unattainable epic mark of 9,000 points within the next year, meaning that the benchmark stock index, which has surged by more than 60% since 2024, could rise by more than 20%.<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is clearly stated that investment in AI-related infrastructure is supporting corporate profitability and the performance of risk assets; It also emphasized that the real risks come from out-of-control inflation and rising financing costs, rather than a decline in AI-related demand or a pessimistic narrative of the \"AI bubble bursting\". Citigroup bucked the trend by raising its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,700 to 8,100, becoming one of the investment banks with the highest targets among mainstream Wall Street institutions.</strong>。</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3837930952\">When Index Funds Meet SpaceX: Passive Investing is Rewriting Price Discovery Mechanisms</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Following rule changes by two major index providers allowing SpaceX to be included in benchmark indices ahead of schedule, Nasdaq Inc., FTSE Russell, and MSCI Global Indices...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSCI\">MSCI Inc</a>They are now preparing to quickly incorporate the company into their respective benchmark index compilation systems.<strong>According to statistics from Intropic, an index rebalancing forecasting service, approximately 30% of SpaceX's freely tradable shares will be held by passive investors just 15 days after its listing. In contrast, under the previously slower index inclusion rules of these index providers, this percentage is only about 4%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The strong expectation of this mechanical demand alone is enough to create a significant upward drive for SpaceX's stock price, even before investment funds compete for shares. Coupled with the bullish beliefs surrounding Musk himself and the frenzied bullish sentiment surrounding SpaceX and artificial intelligence, the risk lies in the fact that the index product itself may drive up the stock costs it will ultimately have to pay.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf5e476702d8031dab002c2a7d093f6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"560\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This makes the major IPO of this rocket manufacturer and artificial intelligence leader not only the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, but also an important \"rational test\" to test the influence of passive investment funds on the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“One reason every index provider is trying to include SpaceX in its benchmark index so quickly is the implicit competition between benchmarks,” said Marco Sammon, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School who has long studied the impact of passive investing. \"This looks like an example of an index compilation method rather than a fundamental factor, but one that could have a huge impact on prices.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the latest calculations by research firm Bloomberg Intelligence, passive investment instruments currently account for about 60% of the assets of U.S. equity funds and control about one-fifth of the market capitalization of the S&P 500. Therefore, financial market scholars have long been concerned that index investing may distort trading behavior and market price formation mechanisms.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sammon from Harvard University had previously proven that<strong>Due to widespread expectations of the index inclusion event, the upward price pressure brought about by the inclusion of index constituent stocks has actually been suppressed. A research report released by Sammon indicates that the core reason behind this is that professional traders in hedge funds and market makers tend to buy stocks gradually in advance to position themselves.</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a working paper he co-authored with John Shim and Stefano Pegoraro, they found that these intermediaries build positions before the index fund actually needs the stock, and then sell their positions when the index fund buys.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“However, one important issue is that when new stocks are quickly included in the index, the time for arbitrageurs to build inventory positions will be significantly shortened,” Sammon said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In another study, he and his Harvard colleague Chris Murray studied CRSPs—an index provider with a partial IPO fast-track inclusion mechanism. They found that companies that were included in the index early outperformed the market by an average of 5 percentage points before the index was included, and this effect would be significantly reversed within three weeks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>They also found that companies that were quickly included in the index were able to raise more money in stock market IPOs—suggesting that rigid passive investment demand does indeed have real economic expansion consequences.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is effectively equivalent to imposing a \"shadow tax\" on passive investors: they are forced to choose to mechanically buy at high prices; At the same time, the company itself cannot directly sell its stock assets to index-tracking funds.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“When the inclusion window is compressed, mechanical demand of the same size is more likely to cause larger short-term price shocks and subsequent reversals,” Sammon said. “This situation is further amplified by the high volatility and relatively poor liquidity of the market after an IPO. In this environment, index fund investors will bear higher costs.”</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For index providers, whether or not to quickly include a company is essentially a choice between two risks: one is to hastily include an overhyped new stock; Another option is to miss the huge capital inflow brought about by the listing moment of an industry giant.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Besides SpaceX, the world's two leading AI applications companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, are also expected to conduct large-scale IPOs soon. S&P Dow Jones Indices has rejected proposals that would have allowed these three companies to enter the U.S. benchmark index earlier and quickly, while other index compilers have generally relaxed index inclusion rules to include these massive IPO technology companies earlier.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“<strong>Companies now choose to go public at a more mature stage of development, and the rapid inclusion of IPOs helps the index better represent those listed companies that are truly important to economic growth prospects.</strong>。” Economists Phil Mackintosh and Nicole Torskiy from Nasdaq wrote in their company blog last week.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>According to their research based on data from 2010 to 2025, stocks that enter the Russell 1000 first tend to outperform the S&P 1500.</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Even so, Intropic stated that passive demand for SpaceX stock could still create a...<strong>\"reflexive loop\". In a blog post published on Monday, the agency noted that the size of capital inflows generated by each index will depend on the company's market capitalization on the ranking date of each index. This market capitalization itself may have been temporarily pushed up by arbitrageurs building positions in advance in preparation for mechanical buying.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If investors participating in an IPO are themselves subscribing to stocks in anticipation of future passive funding needs, then this cycle could even extend further into the IPO pricing stage, Intropic stated. “Price shocks from passive capital flows are typically short-lived, but they can disrupt price discovery mechanisms at the most crucial moment in a company’s stock market journey,” the London-based financial institution wrote.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2433600793\">SpaceX is not a terminator, but an amplifier for the AI computing power frenzy! The AI super bull market may have just entered its second half.</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The \"huge IPO siphon effect\" that some investors are concerned about does exist, but its impact is more biased towards the short-term market structure.<strong>Rather than the logic of a long-term bull market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The latest research report shows that even if the total equity issuance scale in the United States reaches about $600 billion in 2026, it will still be less than 1% of the total market capitalization of the US stock market. Theoretically, the market can absorb it, but it will temporarily squeeze out small IPOs and some highly crowded positions. Goldman Sachs stated that even if it raises its 2026 IPO financing forecast to $225 billion and includes additional share issuances, convertible bonds, and SPACs to create a larger equity supply, it will still not break through historical norms in terms of the proportion of total market capitalization and historical percentages of the U.S. stock market. More importantly, U.S. corporate share buybacks remain the strongest demand in the market, and Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to continue to be supported by earnings growth.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX is accelerating its transformation from a \"commercial aerospace and space exploration company\" to a \"global AI computing infrastructure operator + AI application behemoth.\"<strong>The $250 billion subscription far exceeding expectations is enough to demonstrate the market's acceptance of this growth narrative, and will continue to reinforce the trend and trajectory that \"SpaceX's record IPO is actually expanding the boundaries of the AI super bull market, rather than consuming the liquidity of the AI bull market.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ARM, Micron, SK Hynix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">Samsung Electronics</a>as well as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>The recent sharp correction in the stock prices of leaders in the AI computing power industry chain reflects more of an expected repricing than a reversal of industry logic. Over the past year, some links in the AI industry chain have seen excessively rapid growth, and the market has begun to return from \"infinitely optimistic expectations\" to \"the pace of actual order fulfillment\".<strong>Historically, whether IT's the cloud computing super cycle, the smartphone cycle, or the IT internet cycle, the trend of leading industries has often been accompanied by a phased adjustment of 20%-40%. As long as the global AI data center construction progress is in full swing, it will drive the continued large-scale expansion and growth of full-stack AI computing infrastructure layers such as AI GPUs/AI ASICs, high-performance data center CPUs, DRAM/NAND/HBM storage, high-performance network infrastructure, AI PCBs, liquid cooling systems, data center optical interconnect systems, ABF substrates/glass substrates, and extensive wafer foundries. Such adjustments are closer to the turnover and valuation digestion in an AI bull market than to the starting point of a bear market.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Some analysts believe that the real prerequisites for the complete bursting of the \"AI bubble\" and even a bear market in global stock markets are...<strong>It wasn't SpaceX's unprecedented IPO itself, but rather SpaceX's extremely high valuation, coupled with a record rise in the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds with a maturity of 10 years or more, a significant slowdown in corporate profits, a slowdown in AI capital expenditures, unanimous skepticism from investors about the returns generated by AI, and the simultaneous emergence of mechanical portfolio adjustments by passive funds and redemption pressures from active funds.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Looking at global capital flows,<strong>Currently, it seems more like the AI super bull market has entered its second phase.</strong>The first phase is driven by a hyperscale training cluster led by AI GPUs and ASICs; The second phase begins to fully expand into \"new AI centers\" such as data center power chains, HBM/DRAM/NAND, advanced packaging, liquid cooling and heat dissipation, data center CPUs, optical communication/optical interconnection, high-performance Ethernet network infrastructure/data center DCI high-speed interconnection, and space AI computing infrastructure represented by SpaceX, an AI application terminal for PCs, wearable consumer electronics, humanoid robots, and autonomous driving.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wall Street financial giant Goldman Sachs has recently raised its target for South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index multiple times, betting that the South Korean stock market, which has surged 100% this year and is highly volatile, can continue to surge.<strong>Goldman Sachs has raised its target levels for South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index from 8,000 and 9,000 to 12,000 points (compared to the index opening around 7900 on Wednesday). Its core logic is not macroeconomic stimulus or monetary policy factors, but rather the long-term storage boom cycle and the continued surge in demand for AI memory/memory chips, while SK Hynix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>South Korean leaders are precisely one of the most important beneficiaries of the global AI computing power chain.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8644399e41558064729bc8dffe946045\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1231\" tg-height=\"586\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A recent research report released by Wall Street commercial banking giant JPMorgan Chase shows that...<strong>Driven by a bull market in technology stocks dominated by AI computing power trading, the institution predicts that the S&P 500, one of the benchmark US stock indices, may break through the seemingly unattainable epic mark of 9,000 points within the next year. This means that the benchmark stock index, which has surged by more than 60% since 2024, could rise by more than 20%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the analyst team at Wall Street financial giant Bank of America<strong>AI computing infrastructure is entering a more sustained and broader capital expenditure cycle. Almost simultaneously, another Wall Street financial giant, Morgan Stanley, released a research report showing that the AI computing power arms race has entered a system-level expansion phase, and the demand for AI infrastructure is showing a rare trend of \"inelasticity\"—that is, regardless of the cost curve, tech giants continue to increase their investment in building AI data centers. This \"inelasticity of demand\" will continue to strengthen the resilience of the US economy and the overall earnings growth rate of the S&P 500 index. It is also predicted that by 2028, nearly $3 trillion in AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy, and more than 80% of the spending is still ahead.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia stated at the annual shareholders' meeting last week that demand will exceed supply for many years to come, and even if new production capacity is launched in the United States, TSMC will still struggle to fully meet AI-driven demand in the coming years. Regarding the specific outlook for AI capital expenditures, TSMC leader Wei Zhejia's statement at the shareholders' meeting, \"I don't know where the high point is\" and \"I don't see any indicators of demand stopping,\" can be considered the most bullish statement from a giant in the AI computing power industry chain at this TSMC shareholders' meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The AI super bull market has entered the \"SpaceX moment\"! Passive funds are gathering momentum and fueling the AI computing power frenzy, and the AI computing power boom is far from over.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe AI super bull market has entered the \"SpaceX moment\"! Passive funds are gathering momentum and fueling the AI computing power frenzy, and the AI computing power boom is far from over.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-06-10 12:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Recently, many financial market scholars and market observers have written articles stating that index-tracking funds (ETFs) are about to create billions of dollars in new demand for SpaceX stock.<strong>This prospect could create a feedback loop, further pushing up the stock price and overall market capitalization of the American giant founded by Elon Musk that focuses on \"space exploration + AI\".</strong>The investment and construction of AI-related infrastructure, expected to reach $3 trillion, is in full swing. Coupled with the prospect of billions of dollars in demand for SpaceX stock from index-tracking funds, some bullish analysts believe that the \"AI super bull market\" sweeping the global stock market may be far from over.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In other words, after 15 days of public market trading, approximately 30% of SpaceX's freely tradable shares will be held by passive investors focused on index ETFs, which may provide continued upward momentum to the stock price.<strong>SpaceX's record-breaking and unprecedented IPO is no longer just a single financing event, but more like an extreme stress test of its ability to absorb funds in the context of a global \"AI super bull market.\" Furthermore, some analysts believe that SpaceX may become a powerful amplifier for the AI super bull market rather than a bubble buster.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On Tuesday, Eastern Time, media outlets, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that<strong>SpaceX has attracted more than $250 billion in investor demand, far exceeding the $75 billion the company plans to raise, and is poised to become the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. If SpaceX's stock price continues to rise due to index funds and scarce circulating shares, it could attract more funds, thereby further strengthening valuation expansion. Therefore, some Wall Street analysts who remain optimistic about the global \"AI super bull market\" driven by the AI computing power frenzy believe that the AI super bull market trajectory is far from over. SpaceX is more like a beneficiary and amplifier of the AI super bull market than a \"drain-type\" terminator that the market is panicking about.</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The $250 billion subscription scale itself speaks for itself.<strong>Global venture capital's pursuit of AI computing infrastructure, commercial aerospace, and next-generation space-focused AI infrastructure assets is far from cooling down. If the market is truly on the verge of liquidity depletion, it is unlikely that there will be nearly a fourfold oversubscription.</strong>Conversely, this means that a large number of long-term funds, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, growth funds, and actively managed hedge funds are actively seeking core assets that can carry the growth narrative for the next decade.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Judging from the latest mainstream views on Wall Street, despite recent developments including ARM,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>SK Hynix and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>However, there is no pessimistic consensus on Wall Street that \"the AI super bull market is over.\" On the contrary, the opposite phenomenon has emerged: more and more large investment institutions are raising their benchmark stock index targets, and the reasons for the raises are almost all related to the wave of AI capital expenditure, the booming progress of AI infrastructure construction, and AI-driven profit expansion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wall Street commercial banking giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>A recent research report shows that, driven by a bull market in technology stocks dominated by AI computing power trading, the institution predicts that one of the benchmark US stock indices will...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>The index may break through the seemingly unattainable epic mark of 9,000 points within the next year, meaning that the benchmark stock index, which has surged by more than 60% since 2024, could rise by more than 20%.<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is clearly stated that investment in AI-related infrastructure is supporting corporate profitability and the performance of risk assets; It also emphasized that the real risks come from out-of-control inflation and rising financing costs, rather than a decline in AI-related demand or a pessimistic narrative of the \"AI bubble bursting\". Citigroup bucked the trend by raising its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,700 to 8,100, becoming one of the investment banks with the highest targets among mainstream Wall Street institutions.</strong>。</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3837930952\">When Index Funds Meet SpaceX: Passive Investing is Rewriting Price Discovery Mechanisms</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Following rule changes by two major index providers allowing SpaceX to be included in benchmark indices ahead of schedule, Nasdaq Inc., FTSE Russell, and MSCI Global Indices...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSCI\">MSCI Inc</a>They are now preparing to quickly incorporate the company into their respective benchmark index compilation systems.<strong>According to statistics from Intropic, an index rebalancing forecasting service, approximately 30% of SpaceX's freely tradable shares will be held by passive investors just 15 days after its listing. In contrast, under the previously slower index inclusion rules of these index providers, this percentage is only about 4%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The strong expectation of this mechanical demand alone is enough to create a significant upward drive for SpaceX's stock price, even before investment funds compete for shares. Coupled with the bullish beliefs surrounding Musk himself and the frenzied bullish sentiment surrounding SpaceX and artificial intelligence, the risk lies in the fact that the index product itself may drive up the stock costs it will ultimately have to pay.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf5e476702d8031dab002c2a7d093f6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"560\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This makes the major IPO of this rocket manufacturer and artificial intelligence leader not only the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, but also an important \"rational test\" to test the influence of passive investment funds on the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“One reason every index provider is trying to include SpaceX in its benchmark index so quickly is the implicit competition between benchmarks,” said Marco Sammon, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School who has long studied the impact of passive investing. \"This looks like an example of an index compilation method rather than a fundamental factor, but one that could have a huge impact on prices.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the latest calculations by research firm Bloomberg Intelligence, passive investment instruments currently account for about 60% of the assets of U.S. equity funds and control about one-fifth of the market capitalization of the S&P 500. Therefore, financial market scholars have long been concerned that index investing may distort trading behavior and market price formation mechanisms.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sammon from Harvard University had previously proven that<strong>Due to widespread expectations of the index inclusion event, the upward price pressure brought about by the inclusion of index constituent stocks has actually been suppressed. A research report released by Sammon indicates that the core reason behind this is that professional traders in hedge funds and market makers tend to buy stocks gradually in advance to position themselves.</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a working paper he co-authored with John Shim and Stefano Pegoraro, they found that these intermediaries build positions before the index fund actually needs the stock, and then sell their positions when the index fund buys.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“However, one important issue is that when new stocks are quickly included in the index, the time for arbitrageurs to build inventory positions will be significantly shortened,” Sammon said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In another study, he and his Harvard colleague Chris Murray studied CRSPs—an index provider with a partial IPO fast-track inclusion mechanism. They found that companies that were included in the index early outperformed the market by an average of 5 percentage points before the index was included, and this effect would be significantly reversed within three weeks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>They also found that companies that were quickly included in the index were able to raise more money in stock market IPOs—suggesting that rigid passive investment demand does indeed have real economic expansion consequences.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is effectively equivalent to imposing a \"shadow tax\" on passive investors: they are forced to choose to mechanically buy at high prices; At the same time, the company itself cannot directly sell its stock assets to index-tracking funds.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“When the inclusion window is compressed, mechanical demand of the same size is more likely to cause larger short-term price shocks and subsequent reversals,” Sammon said. “This situation is further amplified by the high volatility and relatively poor liquidity of the market after an IPO. In this environment, index fund investors will bear higher costs.”</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For index providers, whether or not to quickly include a company is essentially a choice between two risks: one is to hastily include an overhyped new stock; Another option is to miss the huge capital inflow brought about by the listing moment of an industry giant.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Besides SpaceX, the world's two leading AI applications companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, are also expected to conduct large-scale IPOs soon. S&P Dow Jones Indices has rejected proposals that would have allowed these three companies to enter the U.S. benchmark index earlier and quickly, while other index compilers have generally relaxed index inclusion rules to include these massive IPO technology companies earlier.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“<strong>Companies now choose to go public at a more mature stage of development, and the rapid inclusion of IPOs helps the index better represent those listed companies that are truly important to economic growth prospects.</strong>。” Economists Phil Mackintosh and Nicole Torskiy from Nasdaq wrote in their company blog last week.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>According to their research based on data from 2010 to 2025, stocks that enter the Russell 1000 first tend to outperform the S&P 1500.</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Even so, Intropic stated that passive demand for SpaceX stock could still create a...<strong>\"reflexive loop\". In a blog post published on Monday, the agency noted that the size of capital inflows generated by each index will depend on the company's market capitalization on the ranking date of each index. This market capitalization itself may have been temporarily pushed up by arbitrageurs building positions in advance in preparation for mechanical buying.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If investors participating in an IPO are themselves subscribing to stocks in anticipation of future passive funding needs, then this cycle could even extend further into the IPO pricing stage, Intropic stated. “Price shocks from passive capital flows are typically short-lived, but they can disrupt price discovery mechanisms at the most crucial moment in a company’s stock market journey,” the London-based financial institution wrote.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2433600793\">SpaceX is not a terminator, but an amplifier for the AI computing power frenzy! The AI super bull market may have just entered its second half.</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The \"huge IPO siphon effect\" that some investors are concerned about does exist, but its impact is more biased towards the short-term market structure.<strong>Rather than the logic of a long-term bull market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The latest research report shows that even if the total equity issuance scale in the United States reaches about $600 billion in 2026, it will still be less than 1% of the total market capitalization of the US stock market. Theoretically, the market can absorb it, but it will temporarily squeeze out small IPOs and some highly crowded positions. Goldman Sachs stated that even if it raises its 2026 IPO financing forecast to $225 billion and includes additional share issuances, convertible bonds, and SPACs to create a larger equity supply, it will still not break through historical norms in terms of the proportion of total market capitalization and historical percentages of the U.S. stock market. More importantly, U.S. corporate share buybacks remain the strongest demand in the market, and Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to continue to be supported by earnings growth.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX is accelerating its transformation from a \"commercial aerospace and space exploration company\" to a \"global AI computing infrastructure operator + AI application behemoth.\"<strong>The $250 billion subscription far exceeding expectations is enough to demonstrate the market's acceptance of this growth narrative, and will continue to reinforce the trend and trajectory that \"SpaceX's record IPO is actually expanding the boundaries of the AI super bull market, rather than consuming the liquidity of the AI bull market.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ARM, Micron, SK Hynix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">Samsung Electronics</a>as well as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>The recent sharp correction in the stock prices of leaders in the AI computing power industry chain reflects more of an expected repricing than a reversal of industry logic. Over the past year, some links in the AI industry chain have seen excessively rapid growth, and the market has begun to return from \"infinitely optimistic expectations\" to \"the pace of actual order fulfillment\".<strong>Historically, whether IT's the cloud computing super cycle, the smartphone cycle, or the IT internet cycle, the trend of leading industries has often been accompanied by a phased adjustment of 20%-40%. As long as the global AI data center construction progress is in full swing, it will drive the continued large-scale expansion and growth of full-stack AI computing infrastructure layers such as AI GPUs/AI ASICs, high-performance data center CPUs, DRAM/NAND/HBM storage, high-performance network infrastructure, AI PCBs, liquid cooling systems, data center optical interconnect systems, ABF substrates/glass substrates, and extensive wafer foundries. Such adjustments are closer to the turnover and valuation digestion in an AI bull market than to the starting point of a bear market.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Some analysts believe that the real prerequisites for the complete bursting of the \"AI bubble\" and even a bear market in global stock markets are...<strong>It wasn't SpaceX's unprecedented IPO itself, but rather SpaceX's extremely high valuation, coupled with a record rise in the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds with a maturity of 10 years or more, a significant slowdown in corporate profits, a slowdown in AI capital expenditures, unanimous skepticism from investors about the returns generated by AI, and the simultaneous emergence of mechanical portfolio adjustments by passive funds and redemption pressures from active funds.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Looking at global capital flows,<strong>Currently, it seems more like the AI super bull market has entered its second phase.</strong>The first phase is driven by a hyperscale training cluster led by AI GPUs and ASICs; The second phase begins to fully expand into \"new AI centers\" such as data center power chains, HBM/DRAM/NAND, advanced packaging, liquid cooling and heat dissipation, data center CPUs, optical communication/optical interconnection, high-performance Ethernet network infrastructure/data center DCI high-speed interconnection, and space AI computing infrastructure represented by SpaceX, an AI application terminal for PCs, wearable consumer electronics, humanoid robots, and autonomous driving.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wall Street financial giant Goldman Sachs has recently raised its target for South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index multiple times, betting that the South Korean stock market, which has surged 100% this year and is highly volatile, can continue to surge.<strong>Goldman Sachs has raised its target levels for South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index from 8,000 and 9,000 to 12,000 points (compared to the index opening around 7900 on Wednesday). Its core logic is not macroeconomic stimulus or monetary policy factors, but rather the long-term storage boom cycle and the continued surge in demand for AI memory/memory chips, while SK Hynix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>South Korean leaders are precisely one of the most important beneficiaries of the global AI computing power chain.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8644399e41558064729bc8dffe946045\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1231\" tg-height=\"586\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A recent research report released by Wall Street commercial banking giant JPMorgan Chase shows that...<strong>Driven by a bull market in technology stocks dominated by AI computing power trading, the institution predicts that the S&P 500, one of the benchmark US stock indices, may break through the seemingly unattainable epic mark of 9,000 points within the next year. This means that the benchmark stock index, which has surged by more than 60% since 2024, could rise by more than 20%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the analyst team at Wall Street financial giant Bank of America<strong>AI computing infrastructure is entering a more sustained and broader capital expenditure cycle. Almost simultaneously, another Wall Street financial giant, Morgan Stanley, released a research report showing that the AI computing power arms race has entered a system-level expansion phase, and the demand for AI infrastructure is showing a rare trend of \"inelasticity\"—that is, regardless of the cost curve, tech giants continue to increase their investment in building AI data centers. This \"inelasticity of demand\" will continue to strengthen the resilience of the US economy and the overall earnings growth rate of the S&P 500 index. It is also predicted that by 2028, nearly $3 trillion in AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy, and more than 80% of the spending is still ahead.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia stated at the annual shareholders' meeting last week that demand will exceed supply for many years to come, and even if new production capacity is launched in the United States, TSMC will still struggle to fully meet AI-driven demand in the coming years. Regarding the specific outlook for AI capital expenditures, TSMC leader Wei Zhejia's statement at the shareholders' meeting, \"I don't know where the high point is\" and \"I don't see any indicators of demand stopping,\" can be considered the most bullish statement from a giant in the AI computing power industry chain at this TSMC shareholders' meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1452324.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a92dcaf28f64e8cb7016e217314e1f","relate_stocks":{"AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","SPCU":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Defiance","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","SNK":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-GraniteShares","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","BK4615":"SpaceX概念","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","BK4089":"非传统电信运营商","XOVR":"ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF","SPAL":"2倍做多Space X ETF-GraniteShares","UFO":"Procure Space ETF","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1452324.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642415418","content_text":"近日有不少金融市场专业学者和市场观察人士撰文表示，指数追踪型基金(即指数ETF)即将对SpaceX股票形成数十亿美元的新增需求，这种前景可能会形成一个反馈循环，进一步推高埃隆·马斯克创立的这家聚焦于“太空探索+AI”的美国超级巨头股票价格与整体市值。预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市的分析师们看来，对于席卷全球股票市场的“AI超级牛市”而言，围绕AI的全球牛市可能远未完结。也就是说，经过15天的公开市场上市交易之后，SpaceX约30%的自由流通股将由聚焦于指数ETF被动投资者们所持有，这可能会给股价持续带来上行推动力。SpaceX创纪录级别的前所未有IPO规模，已经不只是单个融资事件，更像是一次对全球“AI超级牛市“背景下资金承接能力的极限压力测试，并且在一些分析师看来，SpaceX或成AI超级牛市的强劲放大器，而非泡沫终结者。在美东时间周二，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，SpaceX已吸引超过2500亿美元的投资者认购需求，远超该公司计划筹集的750亿美元，有望成为史上最大规模的首次公开募股(即IPO)。如果SpaceX股价因指数资金和稀缺流通盘持续上涨，就可能进一步吸引更多资金追逐，从而进一步强化估值扩张，因此在一些持续看好AI算力狂潮所主导的全球“AI超级牛市”行情大趋势的华尔街分析师们看来，AI超级牛市轨迹远未完结，SpaceX更像是AI超级牛市的受益者和放大器，而非市场所恐慌的“抽水型”终结者。2500亿美元认购规模本身说明，当前全球风险资本对于AI算力基础设施、商业航天和下一代聚焦太空的AI基础设施资产的追逐远未降温。如果市场真的处于流动性枯竭边缘，很难出现近4倍超额认购。相反，这意味着大量长期资金、主权基金、养老金、成长基金和主动型对冲基金资金正在主动寻找能够承载未来十年增长叙事的核心资产。从华尔街最新主流观点来看，尽管近期包括ARM、美光、SK海力士以及三星在内的全球股市AI算力产业链股价大幅回调，但是在华尔街目前并没有出现“AI超级牛市结束”的悲观共识，反而出现了截然相反现象：越来越多大型投资机构是在上调基准股指目标位，而上调理由几乎都与AI资本开支浪潮、AI基础设施建设进程火热以及AI驱动的盈利扩张有关。华尔街商业银行巨头摩根大通发布的最新研究报告则显示，在AI算力交易主题主导的科技股牛市狂欢驱动之下，该机构预测美股基准股指之一的标普500指数可能在未来一年内突破9000点这一看似遥不可及的史诗级关口，意味着2024年以来疯涨超60%的该基准股票指数还能涨超20%。摩根士丹利明确指出AI算力相关基础设施投资正在支撑企业盈利与风险资产表现;同时强调真正风险来自通胀失控和融资成本上升，而非AI相关的需求衰退或者是“AI泡沫破裂”悲观叙事。 花旗更是逆势将标普500指数年底目标点位从7700点上调至8100点，成为华尔街主流机构中目标最高的投行之一。当指数基金遇上SpaceX：被动投资正亲手改写价格发现机制在此前两家大型指数提供商修改规则允许SpaceX被提前纳入基准指数之后，纳斯达克指数公司(Nasdaq Inc.)、富时罗素指数公司(FTSE Russell)以及MSCI全球指数公司(MSCI Inc.)现在都准备将该公司快速纳入各自的基准指数编制体系。根据指数再平衡预测服务商Intropic的统计数据，仅在上市交易15天后，约30%的SpaceX自由流通股就将由被动投资者持有。而作为对比，在这些指数提供商们此前较慢的指数纳入规则下，这一比例大约只有4%。仅仅是对这种机械性需求的强劲预期，就足以对SpaceX股价形成重大上行驱动力，甚至发生在投资基金之间争抢股票之前。再叠加围绕马斯克本人的市场看涨信仰，以及围绕SpaceX与人工智能的市场狂热看涨情绪，风险则在于，指数产品本身可能会推动其最终不得不支付的股票成本价格不断上涨。这也使得这家火箭制造商+人工智能领军者的重磅上市，不仅成为历史上规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)，同时也成为检验被动投资资金对于市场影响力的一次重要“理性测试”。“每一家指数提供商都试图如此迅速地将SpaceX纳入基准指数，其中一个原因是基准指数之间存在隐性的竞争关系。”长期研究被动投资影响的哈佛商学院助理教授Marco Sammon表示。“这看起来是一个指数编制方法，而非基本面因素，但是可能对价格产生巨大影响的案例。”根据研究机构Bloomberg Intelligence的最新测算数据，目前被动投资工具约占美国股票型基金资产的大约60%，并控制着标普500指数约五分之一的市值。因此，金融市场的专业学者们长期以来可谓一直担忧，指数化投资可能会扭曲交易行为和市场价格形成机制。来自哈佛大学的Sammon此前曾证明，由于对指数纳入事件的广泛预期，指数成分股纳入所带来的价格上行压力实际上得到了抑制。Sammon发布的一份研究报告显示，背后的核心原因在于，对冲基金和做市商中的专业交易员们往往会提前逐步买入股票进行布局。在他与John Shim以及Stefano Pegoraro合作撰写的一篇工作论文中，他们发现这些中介机构会在指数基金真正需要股票之前建立仓位，然后在指数基金买入时卖出持仓。“但是其中的一个重要问题在于，新股被快速纳入指数后，套利者建立库存仓位的时间将大幅缩短。”Sammon表示。在另一项研究中，他与哈佛大学同事Chris Murray研究了CRSP——一家拥有部分IPO快速纳入机制的指数提供商。他们发现，被提前纳入指数的公司，在指数纳入日前平均跑赢市场5个百分点，而这一效应会在三周内显著回吐。他们还发现，被快速纳入指数的公司能够在股票市场IPO中募集更多资金——这表明刚性的被动投资需求确实会产生真实的经济扩张后果。这实际上相当于对被动投资者征收了一种“影子税(shadow tax)”：他们不得不在高位选择机械买入;与此同时，公司本身却无法直接将股票资产出售给指数追踪基金。“当纳入窗口被压缩时，同样规模的机械性需求更有可能带来更大的短期价格冲击，并随后出现反转。”Sammon表示，“而这种情况又会因IPO后市场本身波动大、流动性相当较差而被进一步放大。在这种环境下，指数型基金的投资者们所承担的成本将更高。”对于指数提供商而言，是否快速纳入一家公司，本质上是在两种风险之间做选择：一种是仓促纳入一个被过度炒作的新股标的;另一种则是错过一家行业巨头的上市时刻带来的巨大资金流入。除了SpaceX之外，全球两大AI应用领军者——OpenAI和Anthropic预计也将在不久之后进行大型IPO。标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)已经拒绝了可能让这三家公司提前且快速进入美国基准指数的提议，其他指数编制公司则普遍松绑指数纳入规则以更早纳入这些巨额IPO科技公司。“企业如今是在更加成熟的发展阶段才选择上市，而快速纳入IPO有助于指数更好地代表那些真正对经济增长前景重要的上市公司。”来自纳斯达克公司的经济学家Phil Mackintosh和Nicole Torskiy上周在公司博客中写道。根据他们基于2010年至2025年数据的研究，率先进入罗素1000指数(Russell 1000)的股票，往往能够跑赢标普1500指数(S&P 1500)。即便如此，Intropic表示，对SpaceX股票的被动需求仍可能形成一个“反身性循环(reflexive loop)”。该机构在周一发布的博客文章中指出，各指数所产生的资金流入规模，将取决于公司在各指数排名日(rank date)的市值。而这一市值本身，可能因为套利者提前建仓、准备迎接机械性买盘而被暂时推高。如果参与IPO的投资者们本身也是出于对未来被动资金需求的预期而认购股票，那么这种循环甚至可能进一步延伸至IPO定价阶段，Intropic表示。“被动资金流所带来的价格冲击通常是短暂的，但它可能会在一家企业股票市场旅程中最重要的时刻，扰乱价格发现机制。”这家总部位于伦敦的金融机构写道。SpaceX不是终结者，而是AI算力狂潮的放大器! AI超级牛市或刚进入下半场一些投资者所担忧的“巨额IPO抽水效应”确实存在，但其影响更偏向短期市场结构，而非长期牛市逻辑。高盛的最新研究报告显示，2026年美国总股权发行规模即便达到约6000亿美元，也不到美国股市总市值的1%，理论上市场可以吸收，只是会阶段性挤压小型IPO和部分高拥挤持仓。高盛表示，即便把2026年IPO融资预测上调至2250亿美元，并将增发、可转债、SPAC等纳入后形成更大的股权供给，按美国股市总市值比例以及历史百分位来看仍未突破历史常态;更关键的是，美国企业回购仍是市场最强需求端，并且高盛预计标普500指数仍有盈利增长支撑。SpaceX正在从“商业航天与太空探索公司”加速向“全球AI算力基础设施运营商+AI应用巨无霸”转型，2500亿美元认购规模远超预期足以说明市场接受这一增长叙事，此后也将不断强化“SpaceX创纪录IPO实际上是在扩展AI超级牛市的边界，而不是消耗AI牛市的流动性”的趋势与轨迹。ARM、美光、SK海力士、三星电子以及AMD、台积电等AI算力产业链领军者们股价近期大幅调整，更多体现的是预期重定价而非产业逻辑逆转。过去一年AI产业链部分环节涨幅过快，市场开始从“无限乐观预期”回归到“实际订单兑现节奏”。历史上无论是云计算超级周期、智能手机周期还是IT互联网周期，龙头产业趋势往往伴随着20%-40%的阶段性调整。只要全球AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼带动AI GPU/AI ASIC、数据中心高性能CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、高性能网络基础设施、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层继续大规模扩张与增长，这类调整更接近AI牛市中的换手与估值消化，而非熊市起点。在一些分析师看来，真正导致“AI泡沫”彻底破裂乃至全球股市陷入熊市的前置条件，不是SpaceX史无前例IPO上市本身，而是SpaceX极高估值IPO叠加10年及以上长期限美债收益率创纪录式上行、企业盈利大幅放缓、AI资本开支放缓、AI创收回报遭遇投资者们一致质疑、被动资金机械调仓和主动基金赎回压力同时出现。从全球资本流向观察，目前更像是AI超级牛市进入第二阶段。第一阶段由AI GPU和ASIC主导的超大规模训练集群驱动;第二阶段开始向数据中心电力链条、HBM/DRAM/NAND、先进封装、液冷散热、数据中心CPU、光通信/光互连、高性能以太网网络基础设施/数据中心DCI高速互联，以及PC、可穿戴消费电子、人形机器人、自动驾驶等AI应用终端SpaceX所代表的太空AI算力基础设施等“新AI中心”全面扩散。华尔街金融巨头高盛近期多次上调韩国KOSPI基准指数目标位，押注今年以来疯涨100%且波动剧烈的韩国股市还能狂飙，高盛对于韩国KOSPI基准指数的目标点位从8000、9000一路提升至12000点(相比之下，该指数周三开盘交易于7900附近)，其核心逻辑并非宏观刺激或者货币政策因素，而是长期存储景气周期与AI内存/存储芯片需求持续大爆发，而SK海力士、三星电子等韩国龙头恰恰是全球AI算力链条最重要的受益者之一。华尔街商业银行巨头摩根大通发布的最新研究报告则显示，在AI算力交易主题主导的科技股牛市狂欢驱动之下，该机构预测美股基准股指之一的标普500指数可能在未来一年内突破9000点这一看似遥不可及的史诗级关口，意味着2024年以来疯涨超60%的该基准股票指数还能涨超20%。在华尔街金融巨头美国银行(Bank of America )的分析师团队看来，AI算力基础设施正在进入更持久、更宽广的资本开支周期。几乎同一时间，另一华尔街金融巨头摩根士丹利发布的研报显示，AI算力军备竞赛进入系统级扩张阶段，AI基础设施需求正在呈现罕见的“无弹性”趋势——即无论成本曲线如何，科技巨头们仍然继续加码建设AI数据中心，而这种“需求无弹性”会持续强化美国经济韧性以及标普500指数整体盈利增速，并且预测到2028年，接近3万亿美元AI相关基础设施投资将流经全球经济，而且超过80%的支出仍在前方。台积电掌舵者魏哲家上周在年度股东会上表示，需求将在未来多年超过供给，即使美国新增产能上线，台积电未来数年仍难以完全满足AI驱动需求;具体的AI资本开支展望层面，台积电掌舵者魏哲家在股东大会上表述的“高点在哪里我也不知道”“没有看到任何需求停止指标”可谓是这次台积电股东会最具AI算力产业链看涨层面的产业链巨头表态。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCU":1.1,"XOVR":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"DXYZ":1.5,"SNK":1.1,"SPAL":1.1,"SPCX":1.5,"UFO":0.6,"AGIX":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":573207180006544,"gmtCreate":1780978504929,"gmtModify":1780978507337,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorIdStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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like fine milk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/449080582848824","repostId":"1176564486","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176564486","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1750637078,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176564486?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-06-23 08:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Analysis of Unusual Movements | Circle's stock price plummeted 5.11% in overnight trading, possibly due to US regulatory uncertainty.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176564486","media":"异动解读","summary":"据报道，稳定币发行公司Circle Internet Corp. 在周日夜盘交易中股价大跌5.11%。这一异常走势可能与近期美国加密货币市场的监管环境有关。分析显示，尽管欧洲加密市场在MiCA框架下呈现增长态势，美国市场却面临监管不确定性的挑战。这种市场表现差异可能源于美国持续的监管不确定性。这种不确定性可能影响了投资者对Circle等美国加密货币公司的信心，导致其股价在非常规交易时段出现大幅波动。","content":"<p>According to reports, shares of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL) plunged 5.11% in Sunday night trading. This unusual trend may be related to the recent regulatory environment in the US cryptocurrency market.</p><p>Analysis shows that while the European crypto market is growing under the MiCA framework, the US market faces the challenge of regulatory uncertainty. According to Konstantins Vasilenko, co-founder of Paybis, transaction volume for EU customers increased by 70% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025 after the MiCA regulation came into effect. In contrast, retail trading activity in the US market is declining, with only 18% of Coinbase's spot trading volume coming from retail investors, down from 40% in 2021.</p><p>This difference in market performance may stem from ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the United States. Although US President Trump and members of his administration have made statements in support of cryptocurrencies, comprehensive federal crypto legislation has not yet been introduced. This uncertainty may have affected investor confidence in U.S. cryptocurrency companies such as Circle, causing their stock prices to fluctuate significantly during unconventional trading hours.</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis of Unusual Movements | Circle's stock price plummeted 5.11% in overnight trading, possibly due to US regulatory uncertainty.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis of Unusual Movements | Circle's stock price plummeted 5.11% in overnight trading, possibly due to US regulatory uncertainty.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-06-23 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to reports, shares of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL) plunged 5.11% in Sunday night trading. This unusual trend may be related to the recent regulatory environment in the US cryptocurrency market.</p><p>Analysis shows that while the European crypto market is growing under the MiCA framework, the US market faces the challenge of regulatory uncertainty. According to Konstantins Vasilenko, co-founder of Paybis, transaction volume for EU customers increased by 70% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025 after the MiCA regulation came into effect. In contrast, retail trading activity in the US market is declining, with only 18% of Coinbase's spot trading volume coming from retail investors, down from 40% in 2021.</p><p>This difference in market performance may stem from ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the United States. Although US President Trump and members of his administration have made statements in support of cryptocurrencies, comprehensive federal crypto legislation has not yet been introduced. This uncertainty may have affected investor confidence in U.S. cryptocurrency companies such as Circle, causing their stock prices to fluctuate significantly during unconventional trading hours.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176564486","content_text":"据报道，稳定币发行公司Circle Internet Corp.（CRCL）在周日夜盘交易中股价大跌5.11%。这一异常走势可能与近期美国加密货币市场的监管环境有关。\n分析显示，尽管欧洲加密市场在MiCA框架下呈现增长态势，美国市场却面临监管不确定性的挑战。据Paybis联合创始人Konstantins Vasilenko透露，MiCA法规生效后的2025年第一季度，欧盟客户的交易量环比增长了70%。相比之下，美国市场的散户交易活动呈下降趋势，Coinbase现货交易量中仅18%来自散户，低于2021年的40%。\n这种市场表现差异可能源于美国持续的监管不确定性。虽然美国总统特朗普及其政府成员发表了支持加密货币的言论，但尚未出台全面的联邦加密立法。这种不确定性可能影响了投资者对Circle等美国加密货币公司的信心，导致其股价在非常规交易时段出现大幅波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRCL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":349026952941800,"gmtCreate":1726241828137,"gmtModify":1726241833354,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> I'm researching into the analyst who issued the recent double downgrade of Micron. His record isn't very impressive.[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> I'm researching into the analyst who issued the recent double downgrade of Micron. His record isn't very impressive.[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ I'm researching into the analyst who issued the recent double downgrade of Micron. His record isn't very impressive.[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a126f836de312ef8209917983dd75c17","width":"1080","height":"2062"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349026952941800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":542242596352072,"gmtCreate":1773411229765,"gmtModify":1773411232570,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDL\">$2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares(NVDL)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDL\">$2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares(NVDL)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares(NVDL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2997acccb6aa04c98f24ef9c4908042","width":"898","height":"1403"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/542242596352072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377329050063208,"gmtCreate":1733160502417,"gmtModify":1733160506659,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ </a> Christmas comes early&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ </a> Christmas comes early&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ Christmas comes early [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5dba206d303669456fd52b52f116036c","width":"1732","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377329050063208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4171900329979952","idStr":"4171900329979952"},"content":"🙌🙌🙌 🥂🍾🥂🍾🎉🎉🎉👏👏👏C͛O͛N͛G͛R͛A͛T͛U͛L͛A͛T͛I͛O͛N͛S͛. 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