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2021-06-28

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280,000 units! Is Tesla's largest recall in history confirmed by automatic acceleration?

2021-06-28

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Is there a bubble in the US stock market? Dalio and Buffett said this

2021-06-24

????????

[Unusual Movement] Eli Lilly surged in pre-market trading, currently up over 7%.

2021-06-24

??

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-24

Yes

Tesla shares rose more than 5%, and the Model 3 and Model Y may sell out in the US.

2021-06-23

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Li Xunlei: Where are the structural opportunities in the era of differentiation?

2021-06-22

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-19

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Is it a good time to buy gold at the bottom now?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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11:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"280,000 units! Is Tesla's largest recall in history confirmed by automatic acceleration?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185056773","media":"新智元","summary":"国家市场监督管理总局昨天发布了特斯拉的召回通知：共计285520辆Model 3和Model Y由于可能存在车辆「速度突增」的隐患，将通过OTA的方式在线召回。这也是官方首次宣布特斯拉可能存在突然加速的隐患。6月26日，国家市场监督管理总局发布通告称，特斯拉将召回211,256 辆国产Model 3和38,599辆国产Model Y，以及35,665辆进口Model 3。目前，总部位于加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托的特斯拉公司还没有回复。特斯拉随后在其官方微博上也发表了相关声明。","content":"<p><b>[Introduction]</b>The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a recall notice from Tesla yesterday: a total of 285,520 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will be recalled online via OTA due to a potential \"speed increase\" issue. This is also the first time that Tesla has been officially announced to have a potential risk of sudden acceleration.</p><p>The brake failure issue hasn't been resolved yet, and there's still the danger of sudden acceleration?</p><p>On June 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice stating that Tesla will recall 211,256 domestically produced Model 3s and 38,599 domestically produced Model Ys, as well as 35,665 imported Model 3s.</p><p>Tesla, headquartered in Palo Alto, California, has not yet responded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d33576459c033e1b802f6283ee534e22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0464ce9d3562446bf973ff3653ba930\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tesla subsequently issued a related statement on its official Weibo account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d05d9a2daf49dc7fa4d9b87e2c0e5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Interestingly, however, these two documents seem to be saying the same thing, but their expressions are completely different.</p><p>The regulatory authority stated, \"Due to a problem with the active cruise control system, the vehicles within the scope of this recall are prone to drivers mistakenly activating the active cruise function in the following situations.\"</p><p>Tesla: \"Because the active cruise control function may be accidentally activated by the driver.\"</p><p>The regulatory bureau stated, \"This recall was conducted after the State Administration for Market Regulation launched a defect investigation. As a result of the investigation, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. have decided to take recall measures to eliminate the safety hazard.\"</p><p>Tesla: \"Adhering to a responsible attitude towards consumers, we have proactively filed a recall plan with the State Administration for Market Regulation.\"</p><p><b>Active cruise \"wrong\" start</b></p><p>The active cruise control function of the Tesla Model 3/Y is activated by pressing the right gear lever down once when the vehicle is in D gear.</p><p>After activating the active cruise function, the vehicle will increase its speed to the set speed or the same speed as the vehicle in front while maintaining a safe distance from the vehicle in front, based on the \"Current Speed\" or \"Road Speed Limit\" settings selected by the user.</p><p>Users can exit the active cruise control function by pressing the right lever upwards once or by applying the brake.</p><p>After active cruise control is incorrectly activated, if the vehicle sets a cruise speed other than the current speed and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed.</p><p>A sudden increase in vehicle speed can affect the driver's expectations and lead to misjudgments in vehicle handling.</p><p>On January 6, a netizen posted a video of active cruise control being mistakenly activated. Clearly, the car owner had no idea what was going on at the time.</p><p>A blogger on Douyin demonstrated how Tesla enters active cruise mode with all assistance turned off.</p><p>Tesla stated that this OTA \"recall\" will raise the threshold for activating active cruise control and add reminders when active cruise control is activated and deactivated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5f80e8e1f69769d64dea833f691ba4\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Quality issues?</b></p><p>Data shows that 93.7% of the sales of Tesla cars produced locally at Tesla's Shanghai factory are recalled vehicles manufactured in China.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also questioned Tesla about whether the quality was affected by the fast manufacturing speed, but received no answer.</p><p>In February, Tesla was summoned for talks due to consumer complaints about quality issues.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e851bdb64d4e80403a999df7faf3f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In April, a consumer expressed a strong protest against Tesla at the Shanghai Auto Show, shouting accusations of brake failure in Tesla cars from the roof.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8f628e28bbc1cf94da384ff9e1f62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Wall Street Journal stated that Tesla's quality problems are no longer news.</p><p>Tesla has always been considered a well-known brand in China, and Musk has stated that China's rapidly growing market will become the company's largest market.</p><p>Has the situation changed now? Not entirely.</p><p><b>Simplified control logic</b></p><p>From the very beginning of its design, Tesla has emphasized the human-computer interaction logic of \"disrupting traditional models,\" which is even more vividly reflected in the Model 3.</p><p>Car owners can simply put their keys in their pockets, pull the handle, and enter the vehicle directly. Once seated, they no longer need to press the start button; they can simply press the gear shift lever to move the vehicle forward.</p><p>Most of the physical buttons inside the car have been removed, even the instrument panel in front of the steering wheel, and the driver only needs to interact with the vehicle through the large screen in the center.</p><p>This design philosophy is implemented more thoroughly in the new Model S Plaid: all physical buttons have been eliminated inside the car, and everything is controlled by touch, and the vehicle can even automatically determine whether to shift into forward or reverse gear.</p><p>When enabling Tesla's proud Autopilot feature, Tesla's operational logic was also revolutionary: although the gear shift lever came from Mercedes-Benz, Tesla integrated it with the gear shift lever while keeping all the functions simple.</p><p>The cruise control function of Mercedes-Benz models is either securely integrated into the steering wheel or a separate control lever.</p><p>Previously, a netizen pointed out this hidden danger on a forum of a vertical automotive website:</p><p>To highlight the vehicle's intelligence, the Model 3's cruise control function differs from traditional models: it automatically sets the speed to the maximum speed limit of the current road, rather than the current driving speed, which leads to \"automatic acceleration\".</p><p>While this helps reduce operational steps, it also poses a risk when integrated with Tesla's unique control methods.</p><p><b>Unresolved brake door</b></p><p>This recall, to some extent, officially explains the previously reported issue with Tesla's automatic acceleration. However, the rights protection incident that took place at the Shanghai Auto Show is still stuck in a Rashomon-like situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782bafca8d6a9296edc64b3e1257668f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A car owner protesting at the auto show stated that the vehicle was traveling on the Anyang National Highway in Henan Province when it rear-ended the vehicle in front due to brake system failure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120fee1da02f4376d31743b8741d541\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"778\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to official vehicle condition monitoring information, the deceleration of the vehicle's brakes at the time did not correspond reasonably to the pressure of the brake master cylinder.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04230d5588379e2d85a114dc62a8c7c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"919\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some experts analyze that it may be due to poor road traction, while others question whether Tesla's Intelligent Driving system has gained too much permission, causing the iBooster electronic braking system provided by Bosch to fail to function effectively.</p><p>However, due to the current stalemate between the two sides, it seems that the true situation at the time will never come to light.</p><p>Following this online recall via OTA (over-the-air upgrade), Tesla's cruise control activation logic will change, and the system will provide drivers with more prompts.</p><p>Interestingly, both Li Auto and XPeng Automobile, emerging domestic car manufacturers, adopt cruise control logic very similar to Tesla's.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c51901d6c1963ab3572f0c7bf44cf0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Led by Tesla, a disruptive force, more and more models are now equipped with similar (or even richer) intelligent and automated features. This recall also serves as a reminder to other automakers in the automotive industry: the prerequisite for adding any intelligent and convenient features inside a car should be safety.</p>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>280,000 units! Is Tesla's largest recall in history confirmed by automatic acceleration?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n280,000 units! Is Tesla's largest recall in history confirmed by automatic acceleration?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新智元</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>[Introduction]</b>The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a recall notice from Tesla yesterday: a total of 285,520 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will be recalled online via OTA due to a potential \"speed increase\" issue. This is also the first time that Tesla has been officially announced to have a potential risk of sudden acceleration.</p><p>The brake failure issue hasn't been resolved yet, and there's still the danger of sudden acceleration?</p><p>On June 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice stating that Tesla will recall 211,256 domestically produced Model 3s and 38,599 domestically produced Model Ys, as well as 35,665 imported Model 3s.</p><p>Tesla, headquartered in Palo Alto, California, has not yet responded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d33576459c033e1b802f6283ee534e22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0464ce9d3562446bf973ff3653ba930\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tesla subsequently issued a related statement on its official Weibo account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d05d9a2daf49dc7fa4d9b87e2c0e5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Interestingly, however, these two documents seem to be saying the same thing, but their expressions are completely different.</p><p>The regulatory authority stated, \"Due to a problem with the active cruise control system, the vehicles within the scope of this recall are prone to drivers mistakenly activating the active cruise function in the following situations.\"</p><p>Tesla: \"Because the active cruise control function may be accidentally activated by the driver.\"</p><p>The regulatory bureau stated, \"This recall was conducted after the State Administration for Market Regulation launched a defect investigation. As a result of the investigation, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. have decided to take recall measures to eliminate the safety hazard.\"</p><p>Tesla: \"Adhering to a responsible attitude towards consumers, we have proactively filed a recall plan with the State Administration for Market Regulation.\"</p><p><b>Active cruise \"wrong\" start</b></p><p>The active cruise control function of the Tesla Model 3/Y is activated by pressing the right gear lever down once when the vehicle is in D gear.</p><p>After activating the active cruise function, the vehicle will increase its speed to the set speed or the same speed as the vehicle in front while maintaining a safe distance from the vehicle in front, based on the \"Current Speed\" or \"Road Speed Limit\" settings selected by the user.</p><p>Users can exit the active cruise control function by pressing the right lever upwards once or by applying the brake.</p><p>After active cruise control is incorrectly activated, if the vehicle sets a cruise speed other than the current speed and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed.</p><p>A sudden increase in vehicle speed can affect the driver's expectations and lead to misjudgments in vehicle handling.</p><p>On January 6, a netizen posted a video of active cruise control being mistakenly activated. Clearly, the car owner had no idea what was going on at the time.</p><p>A blogger on Douyin demonstrated how Tesla enters active cruise mode with all assistance turned off.</p><p>Tesla stated that this OTA \"recall\" will raise the threshold for activating active cruise control and add reminders when active cruise control is activated and deactivated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5f80e8e1f69769d64dea833f691ba4\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Quality issues?</b></p><p>Data shows that 93.7% of the sales of Tesla cars produced locally at Tesla's Shanghai factory are recalled vehicles manufactured in China.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also questioned Tesla about whether the quality was affected by the fast manufacturing speed, but received no answer.</p><p>In February, Tesla was summoned for talks due to consumer complaints about quality issues.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e851bdb64d4e80403a999df7faf3f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In April, a consumer expressed a strong protest against Tesla at the Shanghai Auto Show, shouting accusations of brake failure in Tesla cars from the roof.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8f628e28bbc1cf94da384ff9e1f62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Wall Street Journal stated that Tesla's quality problems are no longer news.</p><p>Tesla has always been considered a well-known brand in China, and Musk has stated that China's rapidly growing market will become the company's largest market.</p><p>Has the situation changed now? Not entirely.</p><p><b>Simplified control logic</b></p><p>From the very beginning of its design, Tesla has emphasized the human-computer interaction logic of \"disrupting traditional models,\" which is even more vividly reflected in the Model 3.</p><p>Car owners can simply put their keys in their pockets, pull the handle, and enter the vehicle directly. Once seated, they no longer need to press the start button; they can simply press the gear shift lever to move the vehicle forward.</p><p>Most of the physical buttons inside the car have been removed, even the instrument panel in front of the steering wheel, and the driver only needs to interact with the vehicle through the large screen in the center.</p><p>This design philosophy is implemented more thoroughly in the new Model S Plaid: all physical buttons have been eliminated inside the car, and everything is controlled by touch, and the vehicle can even automatically determine whether to shift into forward or reverse gear.</p><p>When enabling Tesla's proud Autopilot feature, Tesla's operational logic was also revolutionary: although the gear shift lever came from Mercedes-Benz, Tesla integrated it with the gear shift lever while keeping all the functions simple.</p><p>The cruise control function of Mercedes-Benz models is either securely integrated into the steering wheel or a separate control lever.</p><p>Previously, a netizen pointed out this hidden danger on a forum of a vertical automotive website:</p><p>To highlight the vehicle's intelligence, the Model 3's cruise control function differs from traditional models: it automatically sets the speed to the maximum speed limit of the current road, rather than the current driving speed, which leads to \"automatic acceleration\".</p><p>While this helps reduce operational steps, it also poses a risk when integrated with Tesla's unique control methods.</p><p><b>Unresolved brake door</b></p><p>This recall, to some extent, officially explains the previously reported issue with Tesla's automatic acceleration. However, the rights protection incident that took place at the Shanghai Auto Show is still stuck in a Rashomon-like situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782bafca8d6a9296edc64b3e1257668f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A car owner protesting at the auto show stated that the vehicle was traveling on the Anyang National Highway in Henan Province when it rear-ended the vehicle in front due to brake system failure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120fee1da02f4376d31743b8741d541\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"778\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to official vehicle condition monitoring information, the deceleration of the vehicle's brakes at the time did not correspond reasonably to the pressure of the brake master cylinder.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04230d5588379e2d85a114dc62a8c7c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"919\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some experts analyze that it may be due to poor road traction, while others question whether Tesla's Intelligent Driving system has gained too much permission, causing the iBooster electronic braking system provided by Bosch to fail to function effectively.</p><p>However, due to the current stalemate between the two sides, it seems that the true situation at the time will never come to light.</p><p>Following this online recall via OTA (over-the-air upgrade), Tesla's cruise control activation logic will change, and the system will provide drivers with more prompts.</p><p>Interestingly, both Li Auto and XPeng Automobile, emerging domestic car manufacturers, adopt cruise control logic very similar to Tesla's.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c51901d6c1963ab3572f0c7bf44cf0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Led by Tesla, a disruptive force, more and more models are now equipped with similar (or even richer) intelligent and automated features. This recall also serves as a reminder to other automakers in the automotive industry: the prerequisite for adding any intelligent and convenient features inside a car should be safety.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/okPYp2y8RUP0VfjmJ_ddQw\">新智元</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0d9f23e003547a93295253f05b6a55","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/okPYp2y8RUP0VfjmJ_ddQw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185056773","content_text":"【导读】国家市场监督管理总局昨天发布了特斯拉的召回通知：共计285520辆Model 3和Model Y由于可能存在车辆「速度突增」的隐患，将通过OTA的方式在线召回。这也是官方首次宣布特斯拉可能存在突然加速的隐患。\n刹车失灵的问题还没解决，现在还有突然加速的危险？\n6月26日，国家市场监督管理总局发布通告称，特斯拉将召回211,256 辆国产Model 3和38,599辆国产Model Y，以及35,665辆进口Model 3。\n目前，总部位于加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托的特斯拉公司还没有回复。\n\n特斯拉随后在其官方微博上也发表了相关声明。\n\n然而有趣的是，这两份文件看似在说同一件事，但表述却完全不一样。\n监管局：「本次召回范围内的车辆由于主动巡航控制系统问题，易造成驾驶员在以下情形误激活主动巡航功能。」\n特斯拉：「由于主动巡航控制功能可能被驾驶员误激活。」\n监管局：「本次召回活动是在国家市场监督管理总局启动缺陷调查情况下开展的。受调查影响，特斯拉汽车（北京）有限公司、特斯拉（上海）有限公司决定采取召回措施，消除安全隐患。」\n特斯拉：「秉承对消费者负责的态度，我们主动向国家市场监督管理总局备案了召回计划。」\n主动巡航「误」启动\n特斯拉Model 3/Y的主动巡航功能的开启方式为，车辆在D挡时向下拨动一次右侧挡杆。\n启动主动巡航功能后，车辆会根据用户选择的「当前车速」或「道路限速」主动巡航限速设置，在保持与前车安全车距情况下，提速至设置车速或与前车同速。\n用户可通过向上拨动一次右侧拨杆，或者踩下刹车退出主动巡航功能。\n主动巡航控制被误激活后，如果车辆设置的巡航速度不是当前车速，且当前车速低于设定速度时，车辆会加速到设定速度。\n出现车辆速度突增情形，会影响驾驶员的预期并导致车辆操控误判。\n1月6日，一位网友就发布了一个主动巡航被误激活的视频，显然，这位车主当时完全搞不清楚是什么情况。\n一位抖音上的博主演示了特斯拉是如何在关闭所有辅助的情况下进入主动巡航模式的。\n特斯拉表示，这次OTA「召回」可以提高激活主动巡航控制的阈值，并且增加了主动巡航控制激活和退出时的提醒方式。\n\n质量问题？\n数据显示，在特斯拉上海工厂本地生产的特斯拉汽车销量中，召回的在中国制造的汽车占 93.7%。\n华尔街日报也质询了特斯拉：「是否是由于制造速度太快而导致质量受到影响」，不过并没有得到答复。\n2月，特斯拉因为消费者投诉的质量问题被约谈。\n\n4月，一位消费者在上海车展上对特斯拉表达出了强烈的抗议，在车顶上大喊对特斯拉汽车刹车故障的指控。\n\n华尔街日报则表示，特斯拉的质量问题早已不是什么新闻了。\n特斯拉在中国一直被视为一个享有盛誉的品牌，马斯克也表示中国快速增长的市场将成为公司最大的市场。\n那现在这种情况是不是出现了一些变化？也不尽然。\n一切从简的控制逻辑\n从设计伊始，特斯拉就在强调“颠覆传统车型”的人机交互逻辑，这一点在Model 3上体现得更加淋漓尽致。\n车主只需将钥匙放在裤兜里，就可以拉动把手直接进入车内，并且入座后无需再按下启动按钮，直接拨动换挡杆就可以让车辆前进。\n车内取消了大部分的物理按键，甚至是方向盘前方的仪表盘，驾驶员只需要通过中央的大屏幕与车辆进行交互。\n这样的设计理念在全新的Model S Plaid上面被贯彻得更加彻底：车内取消了所有的物理按键，全部通过触控来进行控制，而车辆甚至可以自动判断挂前进挡还是倒挡。\n在特斯拉引以为傲的Autopilot功能开启上，特斯拉的操作逻辑也堪称颠覆：虽然换挡拨杆来自奔驰，但特斯拉秉着一切从简的功能，将其与换挡拨杆集成在了一起。\n而奔驰旗下车型的巡航控制功能都稳妥地集成在方向盘上，或者是一个独立的控制拨杆。\n之前在某汽车垂直网站论坛上，也有网友指出过这个隐患：\n为了凸显车辆的智能性，Model 3的定速巡航功能与传统车型不同：它会将速度自动设定在当前道路的最高限速，而非当前行驶的速度，这就会导致「自动加速」的发生。\n诚然这么做有助于减少操作步骤，但同时与特斯拉特殊的控制方法集成在一起时，就带来了隐患。\n悬而未决的刹车门\n此次召回从一定程度上从官方角度解释了之前报道过的特斯拉自动加速的问题。但是在上海车展上上演的维权事件目前仍然陷在罗生门中。\n\n车展维权车主表示：车辆当时在河南安阳国道上行驶，由于刹车系统失效导致追尾前方车辆。\n\n根据官方公布的车辆状态监控信息显示，车辆当时刹车的减速度与制动主缸压力并没有合理对应。\n\n有专业人士分析可能是路面附着力不佳，也有人在质疑特斯拉的智能驾驶系统获得了过高的权限，导致博世为其提供的iBooster电子助力刹车装置未能有效发挥作用。\n但是由于目前双方陷入僵持，当时的真实情况似乎永远无法浮出水面。\n此次通过OTA（空中升级）的方式在线召回之后，特斯拉的定速巡航开启逻辑将会有所变化，并且系统会给驾驶员更多的提示。\n有意思的是，国内新造车势力理想和小鹏汽车都采用了与特斯拉十分相近的巡航系统控制逻辑。\n\n在特斯拉这条鲶鱼的带领下，如今越来越多的车型开始配备了类似的（甚至是更加丰富的）智能化和自动化功能，此次召回也提醒着汽车行业其他的造车者们：车内增加任何智能化和便利性设施的前提，应该是安全性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127902387,"gmtCreate":1624809746449,"gmtModify":1703845438477,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576110626320378","authorIdStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127902387","repostId":"1153706160","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153706160","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624799047,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153706160?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is there a bubble in the US stock market? Dalio and Buffett said this","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153706160","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。考虑利率因素，整个市场或未被明显高估。\n\n过去一年，全球疫情和经济动荡难挡美股节节攀升，IPO和特殊","content":"<p>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000, and 2007. Considering interest rates, the overall market may not be significantly overvalued. Over the past year, the global pandemic and economic turmoil have not stopped US stocks from climbing steadily, and the number of IPOs and special purpose acquisitions (SPACs) has also surged. A large amount of money has been poured into highly uncertain areas, and the entire market seems to be immersed in a bubble frenzy.</p><p>However, Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio and Warren Buffett both stated that there is not much of a bubble in the US stock market right now.</p><p>At this week's RobinHood conference, Dalio, based on his research on stock market bubbles and economic cycles over the past few years, stated that<b>While it is true that signs of a bubble are emerging in some parts of the market, overall there is no bubble in the market, at least not compared to the late 1990s and 2007.</b></p><p>According to his estimate,<b>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000, and 2007.</b>Dalio stated, \"There are many stocks without bubbles,\" and investors must judge for themselves which stocks are in a bubble and which are not yet.</p><p>Buffett this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Similar views were expressed at Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. In answering questions about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>When asked about the stock's \"crazy overvaluation,\" he stated:</p><p>I don't think Apple's valuation is crazy; valuation needs to be compared to interest rates. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department held a four-week short-term U.S. Treasury bond auction worth $40 billion, but the winning bid rate was 0%. US bonds are not yielding much now, and we are in a near-zero interest rate environment. If interest rates remain like this in the long run, then stock prices will appear low. I can't find any bonds that can match Apple and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The profitability level of this type of company. Dalio and Buffett suggest that some parts of the market are overvalued, but if interest rates are taken into account, they both believe that the market as a whole is not significantly overvalued. Overseas investment commentator Rupert Hargreaves says that because the Federal Reserve is so lenient with high corporate debt, investors are generally beginning to view debt as part of a company's assets, which also helps drive up valuations.</p><p>At the same time,<b>Compared to interest rates around zero, many companies have returns on capital as high as double digits.</b>The profitability is extremely attractive.</p><p>Hargreaves stated that this leads to the conclusion that investors can still find attractive investment opportunities at current market levels. As the economy opens up, the S&P 500 may continue to see positive returns.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is there a bubble in the US stock market? Dalio and Buffett said this</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs there a bubble in the US stock market? Dalio and Buffett said this\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 21:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000, and 2007. Considering interest rates, the overall market may not be significantly overvalued. Over the past year, the global pandemic and economic turmoil have not stopped US stocks from climbing steadily, and the number of IPOs and special purpose acquisitions (SPACs) has also surged. A large amount of money has been poured into highly uncertain areas, and the entire market seems to be immersed in a bubble frenzy.</p><p>However, Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio and Warren Buffett both stated that there is not much of a bubble in the US stock market right now.</p><p>At this week's RobinHood conference, Dalio, based on his research on stock market bubbles and economic cycles over the past few years, stated that<b>While it is true that signs of a bubble are emerging in some parts of the market, overall there is no bubble in the market, at least not compared to the late 1990s and 2007.</b></p><p>According to his estimate,<b>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000, and 2007.</b>Dalio stated, \"There are many stocks without bubbles,\" and investors must judge for themselves which stocks are in a bubble and which are not yet.</p><p>Buffett this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Similar views were expressed at Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. In answering questions about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>When asked about the stock's \"crazy overvaluation,\" he stated:</p><p>I don't think Apple's valuation is crazy; valuation needs to be compared to interest rates. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department held a four-week short-term U.S. Treasury bond auction worth $40 billion, but the winning bid rate was 0%. US bonds are not yielding much now, and we are in a near-zero interest rate environment. If interest rates remain like this in the long run, then stock prices will appear low. I can't find any bonds that can match Apple and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The profitability level of this type of company. Dalio and Buffett suggest that some parts of the market are overvalued, but if interest rates are taken into account, they both believe that the market as a whole is not significantly overvalued. Overseas investment commentator Rupert Hargreaves says that because the Federal Reserve is so lenient with high corporate debt, investors are generally beginning to view debt as part of a company's assets, which also helps drive up valuations.</p><p>At the same time,<b>Compared to interest rates around zero, many companies have returns on capital as high as double digits.</b>The profitability is extremely attractive.</p><p>Hargreaves stated that this leads to the conclusion that investors can still find attractive investment opportunities at current market levels. As the economy opens up, the S&P 500 may continue to see positive returns.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153706160","content_text":"标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。考虑利率因素，整个市场或未被明显高估。\n\n过去一年，全球疫情和经济动荡难挡美股节节攀升，IPO和特殊目的收购（SPACs）也数量激增，大量资金被砸向高度不确定的领域，整个市场似乎沉浸于泡沫的狂欢。\n但桥水基金创始人达利欧和股神巴菲特双双表示：美股目前并不存在太多泡沫。\n本周的RobinHood大会上，达利欧基于其过去几年对股市泡沫和经济周期的研究表示，尽管确实看到市场某些部分出现了类似泡沫的迹象，但总体而言，市场并不存在泡沫，至少与上世纪90年代末和2007年相比不存在泡沫。\n据其估计，标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。达利欧称，“有很多股票没有泡沫”，投资者必须自己判断哪些股票处于泡沫之中，哪些还没有。\n巴菲特在今年的伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会上也表达了类似的观点。在回答有关苹果等股票“疯狂高估值”的问题时他表示:\n\n 我不觉得苹果估值疯狂，估值需要和利率做比较。周四美国财政部的四周短期美债拍卖有400亿美元规模，但得标利率为0。现在美国债券没什么收益了，我们在接近零的利率环境，如果长期来看利率是这样的话，那么股票价格就显得低。找不到什么债券能有苹果和谷歌这种公司的盈利水平。\n\n达利欧和巴菲特暗示市场某些部分估值过高，但如果考虑利率因素，都认为整个市场并未被明显高估。海外投资评论人Rupert Hargreaves称，由于美联储对公司高负债如此宽容，投资者普遍开始将债务视为公司资产的一部分，这也有助于推高估值。\n与此同时，与零左右的利率相比，许多公司资本回报率高达两位数，盈利方面极具吸引力。\nHargreaves表示，由此能得出结论，在目前的市场水平下，投资者仍可以找到有吸引力的投资机会。随着经济开放，标普500指数可能会继续看到正回报。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126142437,"gmtCreate":1624548940029,"gmtModify":1703840173122,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576110626320378","authorIdStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"????????","listText":"????????","text":"????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126142437","repostId":"1180197914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180197914","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624531757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180197914?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Unusual Movement] Eli Lilly surged in pre-market trading, currently up over 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180197914","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月24日，礼来盘前直线拉涨，现涨超7%，公司治疗早期阿尔茨海默病的donanemab抗体获得美国食品药品监督管理局突破性治疗地位认证。","content":"<p>On June 24,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>The stock surged in pre-market trading and is now up more than 7%. The company's donanemab antibody, which treats early-stage Alzheimer's disease, has received breakthrough therapeutic status certification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ba7c76ea125e4b634a49ccd88450f4\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Unusual Movement] Eli Lilly surged in pre-market trading, currently up over 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Unusual Movement] Eli Lilly surged in pre-market trading, currently up over 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 18:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 24,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>The stock surged in pre-market trading and is now up more than 7%. The company's donanemab antibody, which treats early-stage Alzheimer's disease, has received breakthrough therapeutic status certification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ba7c76ea125e4b634a49ccd88450f4\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180197914","content_text":"6月24日，礼来盘前直线拉涨，现涨超7%，公司治疗早期阿尔茨海默病的donanemab抗体获得美国食品药品监督管理局突破性治疗地位认证。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126148979,"gmtCreate":1624548841791,"gmtModify":1703840168728,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576110626320378","authorIdStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126148979","repostId":"2145824046","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126157732,"gmtCreate":1624548689026,"gmtModify":1703840163029,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576110626320378","authorIdStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes&nbsp;","listText":"Yes&nbsp;","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126157732","repostId":"1173297432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173297432","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624546848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173297432?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 23:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla shares rose more than 5%, and the Model 3 and Model Y may sell out in the US.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173297432","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"特斯拉的第三季度数据可能会相当令人印象深刻。","content":"<p>Market sources indicate that the current delivery waiting times for the Model 3 and Model Y in the United States partially suggest...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Demand in the United States remains so strong that it may sell out in the third quarter. Both models are expected to be delivered in the third quarter of 2021. The Model Y Long Range Dual Motor AWD version is expected to be delivered in September 2021, while the Model 3 Standard Range and Long Range Dual Motor AWD versions are expected to be delivered in 11 weeks.</p><p>With the Model S and even the Model X joining the competition in the third quarter, Tesla's third-quarter data could be quite impressive. Given that both of these flagship models are high-margin models, Tesla's financial situation in the third quarter may be boosted by the new Model S (and perhaps also a new Model X).</p><p>According to Electrek data, as of May 2021, Tesla models accounted for more than 54% of electric vehicle sales in the United States. In addition, U.S. electric vehicle sales reached 53,779 units in May, a 19.2% increase compared to April 2021.</p><p>As of press time, Tesla shares were up more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f87da9e5318350fee8df4e0885208cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose more than 5%, and the Model 3 and Model Y may sell out in the US.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose more than 5%, and the Model 3 and Model Y may sell out in the US.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 23:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Market sources indicate that the current delivery waiting times for the Model 3 and Model Y in the United States partially suggest...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Demand in the United States remains so strong that it may sell out in the third quarter. Both models are expected to be delivered in the third quarter of 2021. The Model Y Long Range Dual Motor AWD version is expected to be delivered in September 2021, while the Model 3 Standard Range and Long Range Dual Motor AWD versions are expected to be delivered in 11 weeks.</p><p>With the Model S and even the Model X joining the competition in the third quarter, Tesla's third-quarter data could be quite impressive. Given that both of these flagship models are high-margin models, Tesla's financial situation in the third quarter may be boosted by the new Model S (and perhaps also a new Model X).</p><p>According to Electrek data, as of May 2021, Tesla models accounted for more than 54% of electric vehicle sales in the United States. In addition, U.S. electric vehicle sales reached 53,779 units in May, a 19.2% increase compared to April 2021.</p><p>As of press time, Tesla shares were up more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f87da9e5318350fee8df4e0885208cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0d9f23e003547a93295253f05b6a55","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173297432","content_text":"市场消息，Model 3和Model Y目前在美国的交付等待时间部分暗示了特斯拉在美国的需求仍非常强劲，以至于可能会在第三季度销售一空。这两款车型的预计交付日期都要到2021年第三季度。Model Y长续航双电机全轮驱动版(Long Range Dual Motor AWD)预计交付日期为2021年9月，Model 3标准续航版和长续航双电机全轮驱动版预计交付日期为11周。\n随着Model S，甚至Model X在第三季度加入竞争，特斯拉的第三季度数据可能会相当令人印象深刻。考虑到这两款旗舰车都是高利润车型，特斯拉第三季度的财务状况可能会因为新款Model S(或许还有新款Model X)而得到提振。\n另据Electrek数据：截至2021年5月，特斯拉车型占美国电动汽车销量的54%以上。 此外，5月份美国电动汽车销量达到53779辆，比2021年4月增长了19.2%。\n截至发稿，特斯拉涨超5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121072816,"gmtCreate":1624446843735,"gmtModify":1703836934246,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576110626320378","authorIdStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121072816","repostId":"1134186261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134186261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624427164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134186261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 13:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Li Xunlei: Where are the structural opportunities in the era of differentiation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134186261","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"买自己买不到的东西\n\n2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。\n通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“","content":"<p>Buying things you can't buy yourself: In 2020, not only \"core assets\" became famous, but also \"K-shaped recovery\" became popular.</p><p>Typically, after a crisis, the economic recovery trend can be divided into U-shaped, V-shaped, and L-shaped. These technical economic terms are often discussed in small circles, but the \"K-shaped recovery\" unexpectedly went viral during the pandemic.</p><p>Compared to cold academic explanations, this time the public truly felt the divide between the two forces, upward and downward. The wealthy lined up in long queues at luxury stores, housing prices in first-tier cities repeatedly hit new highs, while the lower classes faced wages that could not keep up with inflation, and the year-on-year increase in rents nationwide even turned negative at one point.</p><p>The truth behind the \"K-shaped recovery\" is actually \"differentiation\".</p><p>In an era characterized by a stock-based economy, \"differentiation\" is inevitable. When the times and environment have quietly changed, opportunities are not just waiting for them to arrive. Only those who adjust their direction according to the evolution of development thinking can truly seize them.</p><p>Where exactly are the investment opportunities in this era of differentiation? Regarding this issue, we are fortunate to work with<b>Li, Chief Economist of China and Thailand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a></b>Let's start a conversation. Investment logic in an era of differentiation is vividly distilled into... in Li Xunlei's new book.<b>\"The Power of Trends\"</b>The book uses a top-down deductive approach to predict various market trends, from macroeconomic policies to micro-investments.</p><p><b>As early as 2006, Li Xunlei proposed \"buying things you can't afford\".</b>Against the backdrop of rapid economic growth and a significant increase in the scale of the manufacturing industry, the era of a shortage economy was over, but...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>Apart from durable consumer goods such as color TVs, refrigerators, and washing machines, the family has almost no assets, and the number of tradable stocks nationwide is only over 3 trillion yuan in market value.</p><p><b>In other words, there is a surplus of goods, but assets are still in short supply. This means that people will rush to buy assets in the future, just as they did a decade ago to buy durable consumer goods.</b>Those who understand leverage in opportunities cannot simply explain it with \"good luck\"; there is actually a solid macroeconomic logic behind it.</p><p>Among many macroeconomic researchers, some viewpoints are either too profound and obscure, or too superficial and lack logical support. Having written prolifically for decades, Li Xunlei is undoubtedly one of the few people who can truly explain complex concepts in a simple and easy-to-understand way. The seemingly simple idea of \"buying things you can't afford\" encompasses profound insights into the macroeconomy.</p><p>Today, China's economy has evolved from a shortage to a surplus of goods, capital, and money. Against the backdrop of these three major surpluses, Li Xunlei...<b>Starting in 2018, I proposed to \"buy things I can't buy myself\".</b>。 So what is \"something you can't buy\"? How to invest in \"things you can't buy\"? How to find suitable investment opportunities in an era of differentiation? We tried to find some answers in this interview.</p><p>The following is the main text of the interview.</p><p><b>01 Where are the investment opportunities in this era of differentiation?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Regarding the theme of \"Trend Investing in an Era of Differentiation\", the \"era of existing economy\" and \"differentiation\" are closely related. How do you judge the arrival of the \"era of existing economy\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>To be precise, I am not referring to the \"era of existing economy\", but to the \"era dominated by existing economy\". There is a difference between the two.<b>China's GDP growth rate is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth rate of around 5%, while zero growth like Japan's is the real stock economy. Therefore, at present, it is only said that China has the characteristics of a stock economy.</b></p><p>The emergence of these characteristics has made many people uncomfortable. For example, \"lying flat\" is actually a characteristic of the existing economy. It makes people feel that their hard work is useless and that starting a business is prone to failure. This will lead to a 20/20 split.</p><p>In the past, Chinese corporate investment was very enthusiastic, and private investment grew by about 30% before 2013. Now, the growth rate of private investment is getting lower and lower, and less investment means fewer opportunities. The characteristic of private enterprise investment is that it is pro-cyclical; it contracts when the cycle is downward and expands only when the cycle is upward.</p><p>Therefore, at a discussion in 2017, I proposed the concept of \"stock economy\".<b>China has now entered a stage dominated by a stock economy, which is characterized by the strong getting stronger, the survival of the fittest, and the rise and fall of one another. This is the so-called \"differentiation\".</b>The past \"incremental economy\" was characterized by \"chickens and dogs ascending to heaven\" and \"small is beautiful.\" In the past, we often said \"ordinary people rise again.\" Although this word is not elegant, it reflects that it was an era with more opportunities.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Against the backdrop of polarization, what opportunities do you think ordinary people have?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>There are still opportunities, mainly structural ones. From a historical perspective, China entered the early 21st century...<b>Commodity surplus</b>In those days, assets were relatively scarce, so in 2006 I proposed to buy things I couldn't afford, namely investing and leveraging. However, as everyone increased their asset allocation ratios, more than a decade later, the following...<b>Excess total assets</b>The era.</p><p>In an era of commodity surplus and asset surplus, in order to stimulate the economy, government authorities will inevitably issue excessive money, and the result of excessive money issuance is, of course,<b>Excess money supply</b>So right now it is<b>An era of triple oversupply</b>。</p><p><b>However, the so-called surplus refers to \"total surplus\" and \"structural shortage\" still exists. Therefore, for ordinary individuals, the opportunities that can be seized against the backdrop of fewer total opportunities are called \"structural opportunities\" because this type of opportunity exists for a long time.</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>What is the main logic behind your previous emphasis that \"future investment opportunities will mainly be on the supply side\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>The main logic is that China currently has insufficient effective demand, and with a surplus of money, there is a structural shortage. Therefore, the supply-side investment opportunities I am talking about are actually structural opportunities. From an investment perspective, as long as an area of \"structural shortage\" is discovered, it is an opportunity to make a profit.</p><p><b>In the future, what matters more is what you provide.</b>For example, the supply of rice has a limited total demand; Or when pork prices rise, people feel that pig farming is profitable, so they start raising pigs, increasing supply and causing pork prices to fall. Moreover, in the long run, with the process of consumption upgrading in China, pork consumption is expected to decline. This is partly because after income increases and consumption upgrades, consumption of high-priced meats such as beef will increase. On the other hand, China accounts for 18% of the world's population, but consumes 50% of the world's pork, which is expected to decline in the future.</p><p>For example, Dutch lithography refuses to sell to China, which is a shortage of \"core technologies\"; For example, there is also a shortage of some high-end products from national brands, meaning that demand continues to rise and they are not sensitive to prices, but the supply is still insufficient.</p><p><b>reporter</b>During the current period of slowdown and shift in the domestic economy, in which industries do you think structural investment opportunities will emerge?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>In fact, in every industry, as long as so-called \"high-end demand\" and \"effective demand\" can be found, there are opportunities. Even the steel industry is not entirely without opportunities, such as \"special steel\". However, looking at \"crude steel\" alone, there is indeed overcapacity and total volume.</p><p>In addition, although we say that domestic \"effective demand\" is insufficient, demand in some areas is still quite sufficient. For example, the biopharmaceutical industry will have relatively high growth potential in the future, especially the drugs they have developed to treat and alleviate cardiovascular diseases or fight cancer. In the future, as people's wealth increases, they all hope to extend their lifespan, because no matter how much money they earn, it will be difficult to buy the elixir of longevity. By the same logic, since we all believe that \"youth\" is priceless, when many people want to preserve their youth, the demand in the medical aesthetics industry emerges.</p><p><b>02 How should we view real estate, gold, and Bitcoin?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Following the release of the data from the Seventh National Population Census, do you believe that population aging and regional structural imbalances are two trends that require vigilance? Under these two trends, how do you view the future real estate market?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>There is an overall surplus, and with the aging population, the demand for real estate will also decrease. Because of the aging population, people are more willing to invest their money in places with shorter terms, such as fixed income, equity assets, or places with good liquidity, and are less willing to invest in real estate. In addition, an aging population will lead to a decrease in our willingness to invest and an increase in our willingness to consume.</p><p>But structural opportunities remain,<b>The seventh national census shows that the population is still concentrating in first- and second-tier cities. This trend has not changed, and these cities will continue to see net population inflows in the future. Therefore, it is still possible to invest in real estate in these large cities. However, the problem is that the current valuations are too high, which is a characteristic of Chinese housing prices.</b></p><p>This is related to Chinese cultural factors. Chinese people like to invest, manage finances, and buy property, while Westerners do not have such a great demand in this area. This is closely related to our East Asian cultural background.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Do you think recent inflation trends have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy? Is inflation a short-term or long-term problem? What are your thoughts on gold this year?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>The Federal Reserve's primary goal is employment, not inflation. If non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, the Fed's tightening of monetary policy will likely be delayed. However, I believe the Fed's \"taper\" move is possible at the end of the third or fourth quarter.</p><p>In my view, the current inflation is most likely a short- to medium-term phenomenon that may last for more than a year. This inflation may be a \"catch-up\" to the deflation caused by excessive money supply in the past, and it may also be an emotional catharsis. Looking at the level of influence on the US financial market after the Federal Reserve eased monetary policy, it should not be high, because the US has a relatively weak ability to create money through commercial banks. Chinese commercial banks have a stronger motivation to create money, which is why the People's Bank of China does not expand its balance sheet much and does not need to release as much liquidity as the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As for gold, its price depends on the level of real interest rates in the short term. If real interest rates fall, it will be beneficial for gold. In the long run, it depends on the extent of excessive money supply. Gold prices rose significantly in 2018-20, and a slight adjustment this year is normal, but the future outlook remains promising.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Besides gold, Bitcoin also performed remarkably well during last year's \"easing\" market. What are your thoughts on the future investment value of Bitcoin?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei: Bitcoin is highly volatile, which makes it difficult for it to become a currency.</b>Therefore, it cannot be used for transaction settlement. But it has been able to stand out from so many virtual currencies, and its status is undeniable.<b>In the future, it may be a limited investment product, more like an asset.</b></p><p><b>03 Why look at the macro perspective?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Many individual investors and some institutional investors do not pay much attention to the macro economy. What do you think is the significance of the macro economy for investment?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>Macroeconomic research is a typical top-down research that allows you to judge the impact of the macroeconomic environment on yourself through fiscal and monetary policies. The reason why many institutions do not have macro researchers is mainly because macro services are very open, reports are relatively easy to obtain, and the demand for macro researchers is relatively reduced.</p><p>However, I think the macro picture cannot simply be limited to commenting on CPI and PPI, or commenting on the amount of investment in real estate development, etc. I think this kind of macro picture is too small. In my mind, macroeconomic research should have both historical depth and practical applicability and operability in reality.</p><p>However, if the macroeconomic situation is not done properly, it is creating noise for the market and is only interpreting policies and conducting technical analysis of high-frequency data. I would prefer to see macroeconomic research guide policy based on its results, rather than following policy.<b>I often say that we should use a telescope to look at the macro, not a microscope. A microscope only sees the smallest details, but the macro is a very grand and top-down research model that focuses more on \"top-level architectural design\".</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>In the chain of \"macro-meso-micro\", how should we understand the position and role of the macro?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>I think the first thing to do is to point out the general direction. We often pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve's interest rates will go up or down, which will affect the direction of inflation expectations. However, from a longer-term perspective, GDP growth has continued to decline. This is what makes my macro analysis different.<b>Focusing on the major cycle of social development</b>。</p><p>To give another example, when I was studying history, I discovered that all the dynastic changes in China were more or less related to peasant uprisings. The first reason is that China is a major agricultural country. As tenant farmers collect more and more rent for their farmland, farmers' income will decrease, leading to a gradual differentiation in social income. Prolonged peace also means that the rules of the game remain unchanged, and differentiation will only intensify. Differentiation is actually structural distortion, which will eventually lead to economic slowdown to negative growth, ultimately triggering war.</p><p>After that, we will conduct top-down research, exploring various industries, and then exploring how individual choices are influenced by these macro and meso-level factors.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Finally, what is your assessment of fiscal and monetary policies for the foreseeable future?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>I think the budget will still be a bit tight. Why? On the one hand, the macro leverage ratio is already too high, so government departments need to reduce leverage because if we want to maintain long-term economic stability, fiscal expenditure must be steady and sustainable.</p><p>Therefore, in the coming years, given the downward trend in economic growth, monetary policy will need to be relatively loose, especially when fiscal policy is not too proactive. If fiscal policy is tight and monetary policy is also tight, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of stabilizing growth. Therefore, when fiscal policy is \"tight,\" monetary policy can be appropriately loosened.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Xunlei: Where are the structural opportunities in the era of differentiation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Xunlei: Where are the structural opportunities in the era of differentiation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 13:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Buying things you can't buy yourself: In 2020, not only \"core assets\" became famous, but also \"K-shaped recovery\" became popular.</p><p>Typically, after a crisis, the economic recovery trend can be divided into U-shaped, V-shaped, and L-shaped. These technical economic terms are often discussed in small circles, but the \"K-shaped recovery\" unexpectedly went viral during the pandemic.</p><p>Compared to cold academic explanations, this time the public truly felt the divide between the two forces, upward and downward. The wealthy lined up in long queues at luxury stores, housing prices in first-tier cities repeatedly hit new highs, while the lower classes faced wages that could not keep up with inflation, and the year-on-year increase in rents nationwide even turned negative at one point.</p><p>The truth behind the \"K-shaped recovery\" is actually \"differentiation\".</p><p>In an era characterized by a stock-based economy, \"differentiation\" is inevitable. When the times and environment have quietly changed, opportunities are not just waiting for them to arrive. Only those who adjust their direction according to the evolution of development thinking can truly seize them.</p><p>Where exactly are the investment opportunities in this era of differentiation? Regarding this issue, we are fortunate to work with<b>Li, Chief Economist of China and Thailand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a></b>Let's start a conversation. Investment logic in an era of differentiation is vividly distilled into... in Li Xunlei's new book.<b>\"The Power of Trends\"</b>The book uses a top-down deductive approach to predict various market trends, from macroeconomic policies to micro-investments.</p><p><b>As early as 2006, Li Xunlei proposed \"buying things you can't afford\".</b>Against the backdrop of rapid economic growth and a significant increase in the scale of the manufacturing industry, the era of a shortage economy was over, but...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>Apart from durable consumer goods such as color TVs, refrigerators, and washing machines, the family has almost no assets, and the number of tradable stocks nationwide is only over 3 trillion yuan in market value.</p><p><b>In other words, there is a surplus of goods, but assets are still in short supply. This means that people will rush to buy assets in the future, just as they did a decade ago to buy durable consumer goods.</b>Those who understand leverage in opportunities cannot simply explain it with \"good luck\"; there is actually a solid macroeconomic logic behind it.</p><p>Among many macroeconomic researchers, some viewpoints are either too profound and obscure, or too superficial and lack logical support. Having written prolifically for decades, Li Xunlei is undoubtedly one of the few people who can truly explain complex concepts in a simple and easy-to-understand way. The seemingly simple idea of \"buying things you can't afford\" encompasses profound insights into the macroeconomy.</p><p>Today, China's economy has evolved from a shortage to a surplus of goods, capital, and money. Against the backdrop of these three major surpluses, Li Xunlei...<b>Starting in 2018, I proposed to \"buy things I can't buy myself\".</b>。 So what is \"something you can't buy\"? How to invest in \"things you can't buy\"? How to find suitable investment opportunities in an era of differentiation? We tried to find some answers in this interview.</p><p>The following is the main text of the interview.</p><p><b>01 Where are the investment opportunities in this era of differentiation?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Regarding the theme of \"Trend Investing in an Era of Differentiation\", the \"era of existing economy\" and \"differentiation\" are closely related. How do you judge the arrival of the \"era of existing economy\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>To be precise, I am not referring to the \"era of existing economy\", but to the \"era dominated by existing economy\". There is a difference between the two.<b>China's GDP growth rate is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth rate of around 5%, while zero growth like Japan's is the real stock economy. Therefore, at present, it is only said that China has the characteristics of a stock economy.</b></p><p>The emergence of these characteristics has made many people uncomfortable. For example, \"lying flat\" is actually a characteristic of the existing economy. It makes people feel that their hard work is useless and that starting a business is prone to failure. This will lead to a 20/20 split.</p><p>In the past, Chinese corporate investment was very enthusiastic, and private investment grew by about 30% before 2013. Now, the growth rate of private investment is getting lower and lower, and less investment means fewer opportunities. The characteristic of private enterprise investment is that it is pro-cyclical; it contracts when the cycle is downward and expands only when the cycle is upward.</p><p>Therefore, at a discussion in 2017, I proposed the concept of \"stock economy\".<b>China has now entered a stage dominated by a stock economy, which is characterized by the strong getting stronger, the survival of the fittest, and the rise and fall of one another. This is the so-called \"differentiation\".</b>The past \"incremental economy\" was characterized by \"chickens and dogs ascending to heaven\" and \"small is beautiful.\" In the past, we often said \"ordinary people rise again.\" Although this word is not elegant, it reflects that it was an era with more opportunities.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Against the backdrop of polarization, what opportunities do you think ordinary people have?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>There are still opportunities, mainly structural ones. From a historical perspective, China entered the early 21st century...<b>Commodity surplus</b>In those days, assets were relatively scarce, so in 2006 I proposed to buy things I couldn't afford, namely investing and leveraging. However, as everyone increased their asset allocation ratios, more than a decade later, the following...<b>Excess total assets</b>The era.</p><p>In an era of commodity surplus and asset surplus, in order to stimulate the economy, government authorities will inevitably issue excessive money, and the result of excessive money issuance is, of course,<b>Excess money supply</b>So right now it is<b>An era of triple oversupply</b>。</p><p><b>However, the so-called surplus refers to \"total surplus\" and \"structural shortage\" still exists. Therefore, for ordinary individuals, the opportunities that can be seized against the backdrop of fewer total opportunities are called \"structural opportunities\" because this type of opportunity exists for a long time.</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>What is the main logic behind your previous emphasis that \"future investment opportunities will mainly be on the supply side\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>The main logic is that China currently has insufficient effective demand, and with a surplus of money, there is a structural shortage. Therefore, the supply-side investment opportunities I am talking about are actually structural opportunities. From an investment perspective, as long as an area of \"structural shortage\" is discovered, it is an opportunity to make a profit.</p><p><b>In the future, what matters more is what you provide.</b>For example, the supply of rice has a limited total demand; Or when pork prices rise, people feel that pig farming is profitable, so they start raising pigs, increasing supply and causing pork prices to fall. Moreover, in the long run, with the process of consumption upgrading in China, pork consumption is expected to decline. This is partly because after income increases and consumption upgrades, consumption of high-priced meats such as beef will increase. On the other hand, China accounts for 18% of the world's population, but consumes 50% of the world's pork, which is expected to decline in the future.</p><p>For example, Dutch lithography refuses to sell to China, which is a shortage of \"core technologies\"; For example, there is also a shortage of some high-end products from national brands, meaning that demand continues to rise and they are not sensitive to prices, but the supply is still insufficient.</p><p><b>reporter</b>During the current period of slowdown and shift in the domestic economy, in which industries do you think structural investment opportunities will emerge?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>In fact, in every industry, as long as so-called \"high-end demand\" and \"effective demand\" can be found, there are opportunities. Even the steel industry is not entirely without opportunities, such as \"special steel\". However, looking at \"crude steel\" alone, there is indeed overcapacity and total volume.</p><p>In addition, although we say that domestic \"effective demand\" is insufficient, demand in some areas is still quite sufficient. For example, the biopharmaceutical industry will have relatively high growth potential in the future, especially the drugs they have developed to treat and alleviate cardiovascular diseases or fight cancer. In the future, as people's wealth increases, they all hope to extend their lifespan, because no matter how much money they earn, it will be difficult to buy the elixir of longevity. By the same logic, since we all believe that \"youth\" is priceless, when many people want to preserve their youth, the demand in the medical aesthetics industry emerges.</p><p><b>02 How should we view real estate, gold, and Bitcoin?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Following the release of the data from the Seventh National Population Census, do you believe that population aging and regional structural imbalances are two trends that require vigilance? Under these two trends, how do you view the future real estate market?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>There is an overall surplus, and with the aging population, the demand for real estate will also decrease. Because of the aging population, people are more willing to invest their money in places with shorter terms, such as fixed income, equity assets, or places with good liquidity, and are less willing to invest in real estate. In addition, an aging population will lead to a decrease in our willingness to invest and an increase in our willingness to consume.</p><p>But structural opportunities remain,<b>The seventh national census shows that the population is still concentrating in first- and second-tier cities. This trend has not changed, and these cities will continue to see net population inflows in the future. Therefore, it is still possible to invest in real estate in these large cities. However, the problem is that the current valuations are too high, which is a characteristic of Chinese housing prices.</b></p><p>This is related to Chinese cultural factors. Chinese people like to invest, manage finances, and buy property, while Westerners do not have such a great demand in this area. This is closely related to our East Asian cultural background.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Do you think recent inflation trends have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy? Is inflation a short-term or long-term problem? What are your thoughts on gold this year?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>The Federal Reserve's primary goal is employment, not inflation. If non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, the Fed's tightening of monetary policy will likely be delayed. However, I believe the Fed's \"taper\" move is possible at the end of the third or fourth quarter.</p><p>In my view, the current inflation is most likely a short- to medium-term phenomenon that may last for more than a year. This inflation may be a \"catch-up\" to the deflation caused by excessive money supply in the past, and it may also be an emotional catharsis. Looking at the level of influence on the US financial market after the Federal Reserve eased monetary policy, it should not be high, because the US has a relatively weak ability to create money through commercial banks. Chinese commercial banks have a stronger motivation to create money, which is why the People's Bank of China does not expand its balance sheet much and does not need to release as much liquidity as the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As for gold, its price depends on the level of real interest rates in the short term. If real interest rates fall, it will be beneficial for gold. In the long run, it depends on the extent of excessive money supply. Gold prices rose significantly in 2018-20, and a slight adjustment this year is normal, but the future outlook remains promising.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Besides gold, Bitcoin also performed remarkably well during last year's \"easing\" market. What are your thoughts on the future investment value of Bitcoin?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei: Bitcoin is highly volatile, which makes it difficult for it to become a currency.</b>Therefore, it cannot be used for transaction settlement. But it has been able to stand out from so many virtual currencies, and its status is undeniable.<b>In the future, it may be a limited investment product, more like an asset.</b></p><p><b>03 Why look at the macro perspective?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Many individual investors and some institutional investors do not pay much attention to the macro economy. What do you think is the significance of the macro economy for investment?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>Macroeconomic research is a typical top-down research that allows you to judge the impact of the macroeconomic environment on yourself through fiscal and monetary policies. The reason why many institutions do not have macro researchers is mainly because macro services are very open, reports are relatively easy to obtain, and the demand for macro researchers is relatively reduced.</p><p>However, I think the macro picture cannot simply be limited to commenting on CPI and PPI, or commenting on the amount of investment in real estate development, etc. I think this kind of macro picture is too small. In my mind, macroeconomic research should have both historical depth and practical applicability and operability in reality.</p><p>However, if the macroeconomic situation is not done properly, it is creating noise for the market and is only interpreting policies and conducting technical analysis of high-frequency data. I would prefer to see macroeconomic research guide policy based on its results, rather than following policy.<b>I often say that we should use a telescope to look at the macro, not a microscope. A microscope only sees the smallest details, but the macro is a very grand and top-down research model that focuses more on \"top-level architectural design\".</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>In the chain of \"macro-meso-micro\", how should we understand the position and role of the macro?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>I think the first thing to do is to point out the general direction. We often pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve's interest rates will go up or down, which will affect the direction of inflation expectations. However, from a longer-term perspective, GDP growth has continued to decline. This is what makes my macro analysis different.<b>Focusing on the major cycle of social development</b>。</p><p>To give another example, when I was studying history, I discovered that all the dynastic changes in China were more or less related to peasant uprisings. The first reason is that China is a major agricultural country. As tenant farmers collect more and more rent for their farmland, farmers' income will decrease, leading to a gradual differentiation in social income. Prolonged peace also means that the rules of the game remain unchanged, and differentiation will only intensify. Differentiation is actually structural distortion, which will eventually lead to economic slowdown to negative growth, ultimately triggering war.</p><p>After that, we will conduct top-down research, exploring various industries, and then exploring how individual choices are influenced by these macro and meso-level factors.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Finally, what is your assessment of fiscal and monetary policies for the foreseeable future?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>I think the budget will still be a bit tight. Why? On the one hand, the macro leverage ratio is already too high, so government departments need to reduce leverage because if we want to maintain long-term economic stability, fiscal expenditure must be steady and sustainable.</p><p>Therefore, in the coming years, given the downward trend in economic growth, monetary policy will need to be relatively loose, especially when fiscal policy is not too proactive. If fiscal policy is tight and monetary policy is also tight, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of stabilizing growth. Therefore, when fiscal policy is \"tight,\" monetary policy can be appropriately loosened.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134186261","content_text":"买自己买不到的东西\n\n2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。\n通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“K型复苏”却意外了出圈。\n比起学术层面冰冷的解释，这一回大众切实感受到了向上与向下的两股力量的分野。富人在奢侈品店排起长队，一线城市房价屡创新高，而底层面临着工资跑不赢通胀，全国房租同比涨幅甚至一度转负。\n“K型复苏”背后的真相，其实就是“分化”。\n在一个以存量经济为特征的时代里，“分化”已是不可避免。当身处时代环境已经悄然发生改变，机会并不是坐等到来，顺着发展思路演进而调整自己出击方向的人，才能真正握住机会。\n分化时代下的投资机会到底在哪里？针对此问题，我们有幸与中泰首席经济学家李迅雷展开一场对话。分化时代里的投资逻辑，在李迅雷的新书中被形象地提炼为“趋势的力量”，书中基于自上而下的演绎方法，从宏观政策至微观投资，来预见市场的各种趋势。\n早在2006年，李迅雷就提出了“买自己买不起的东西”。在当时的背景下，经济的高速增长，制造业的规模大幅增加，短缺经济时代已经过去，但老百姓家里配置的除了彩电、冰箱、洗衣机等耐用消费品之外，几乎没有什么资产，全国可流通的股票数量也就3万多亿元市值。\n也就是说，商品已经过剩，但资产仍然短缺。这意味着未来人们会抢购资产，像十年前抢购耐用消费品一样。看懂机会上杠杆的人，并不是一句“运气好”就解释过去了，背后其实有着坚实的宏观逻辑支撑。\n在诸多宏观经济研究人士中，一些观点不是过于深奥晦涩，就是过分浅显缺乏逻辑支撑。几十年来笔耕不辍，李迅雷无疑是那少部分能真正做到深入浅出的人。一句“买自己买不起的东西”，看似简单的观点背后囊括着对宏观经济深刻的洞见。\n如今，中国经济从短缺演化到如今商品过剩、资本过剩、货币过剩，在“三大过剩”的背景下，李迅雷在2018年开始提出要“买自己买不到的东西”。那什么是“买不到的东西”？怎么投资“买不到的东西”？在分化时代里如何找到合适的投资机会？我们试图在本次访谈中找到一些答案。\n以下是访谈的正文内容。\n01 分化时代下的投资机会在哪里？\n记者：对于“分化时代下的趋势投资”主题，“存量经济时代”与“分化”二者紧密关联，请问您是如何做出“存量经济时代”到来的判断？\n李迅雷：准确讲，我所指的并不是“存量经济时代”，而是“存量经济主导的时代”，两者是有差别的。中国GDP增速预计还会保持5%左右的中速增长，而像日本这样的零增长才是真正的存量经济，所以目前只是说中国出现了存量经济的特征。\n而这些特征的出现已经使得很多人不习惯，比如“躺平”其实就是一个存量经济特征，觉得自己辛苦半天也没用，创业也容易失败，这里面就会呈现出一种二八分化现象。\n过去，中国的企业投资都很起劲，民间投资在2013年前都有30%左右的增长，现在民营投资增速越来越低，投资少就意味着机会也少。而民营企业投资的特点又是顺周期，周期向下时它萎缩，周期上升时它才扩张。\n因此，2017年我在一次讨论会上，就提出“存量经济”的概念，中国目前已步入到存量经济主导的阶段，这个阶段的特色就是强者恒强、优胜劣汰、此消彼长，这就是所谓的“分化”。过去的“增量经济”下的特征是“鸡犬升天”，“小的就是美的”，过去我们也常说“屌丝逆袭”，虽然这个词汇不雅，但却反映出那是一个机会比较多的时代。\n记者：分化背景下，您觉得普通人有什么机会？\n李迅雷：机会还是有的，主要是结构性机会。从历史演进来看，中国21世纪初进入商品过剩时代，当时的资产还是相对稀缺，所以2006年时我提出要买自己买不起的东西，即投资加杠杆。但是，当大家纷纷加大资产配置比例，过了十余年后，随之而来就是资产总量过剩的时代。\n在商品过剩、资产过剩的时代，为了拉动经济，政府当局肯定会超发货币，超发货币的结果当然就是货币总量过剩，所以眼下是一个三重过剩叠加的时代。\n但所谓的过剩指的是“总量过剩”，“结构性短缺”依然存在，因此对普通个体而言，在总量机会变少的背景下，可以把握的机会叫作“结构性机会”，因为这一类机会是长期存在的。\n记者：您之前强调“今后投资机会主要在供给侧”，背后的主要逻辑是什么？\n李迅雷：主要逻辑在于，中国目前存在有效需求不足的情况，而在货币过剩的情况下，又存在着结构性短缺。因此，我所谈的供给侧投资机会，其实也就是结构性机会，从投资角度来看，只要发现“结构性短缺”领域，便是获利的机会。\n未来，更为重要的是，你所供给的是什么东西。比如大米的供给，它的需求总量是有限的；或是猪价上涨，大家就觉得说养猪收入不错，于是纷纷养猪，供给增加，猪价下跌。而且从长远来看，伴随中国消费升级的进程，猪肉消费预期会下降，这一方面是由于收入提高后，消费升级，对牛肉等高价肉的消费会提升；另一方面，中国人口占全球18%，却要消费全球50%的猪肉，未来预计会有所下降。\n比如荷兰的光刻机就是不卖给中国，这就属于“核心技术”的短缺；再比如就是有些民族品牌类的高端商品，也存在短缺现象，即需求持续向上，对价格不敏感，但供给面依然不足。\n记者：在当前国内经济减速换挡的时期，您认为结构性的投资机会将会在哪些行业中出现？\n李迅雷：其实每个行业中，只要能找到所谓的“高端需求”、“有效需求”，就都是有机会的，就连钢铁业也并非完全没有机会，比如说“特种钢”。不过单就“粗钢”来看，的确是产能和总量都过剩了。\n另外，虽然我们说国内“有效需求”不足，但在某些领域的需求还是很充分的。比如生物医药行业，未来成长性就会比较高，特别是他们研发的一些治疗缓解心血管疾病或是抗癌的药物。未来随着人们的财富增多，都希望自己的寿命可以延长，因为钱赚得再多，也很难买到延年益寿的长生不老药。相同逻辑下，由于我们都认为“青春”是无价的，当有很多人想留住青春时，医美行业的需求便随之出现了。\n02 如何看地产、黄金、比特币？\n记者：在第七次人口普查数据出来以后，您认为人口老龄化和区域结构性失衡两个趋势需要警惕，在这两个趋势下，您如何看待未来房地产市场？\n李迅雷：总量上是存在过剩的，加之人口老龄化，对房地产需求也会下降。因为老龄化后，大家更愿意把钱投到一些期限较短的地方，比如说固定收益、权益类资产，或是变现流动性好的地方，不太愿意投房地产。另外，人口的老龄化也会导致我们的投资意愿下降，消费意愿增强。\n但结构性机会仍然存在，从第七次人口普查来看，人口还是在往一线城市、二线城市集中，这个趋势没有变化，未来这些城市人口依然会是净流入，因此还是可以布局这些大城市的房地产，但问题就是当前估值太高，这是中国房价的一个特点。\n这其中关联着中国文化因素，中国人喜欢投资、理财、置产，而西方人在这方面需求就没有那么大，这跟我们东亚的文化背景是很有关系的。\n记者：您认为近期通胀走势对美联储的货币政策约束大吗？通胀是短期困境还是长期困境？对今年的黄金怎么看？\n李迅雷：美联储的主要目标是就业而非通胀，如果非农就业不达预期，那么美联储的收紧货币的时间还是会延后的，但我认为“taper”的动作美联储在第三季度末或四季度是有可能做的。\n就我的观点而论，当前的通胀大概率是一个中短期现象，持续时间或超过一年，这种通胀或许是对过去货币超发下的通缩是一种“补涨”，同时也是一种情绪上的宣泄。再就美联储放水后对美国金融市场的水位来看，应该也不算高，因为美国通过商业银行来创造货币的能力比较弱；中国商业银行创造货币的动机反而比较强，这也是为什么中国央行不怎么扩表，可以不需要像美联储那样，释放那么多流动性。\n至于黄金，黄金价格短期取决于实际利率的水平，若实际利率往下走的话，对于黄金是有利的。长期则取决于货币超发的程度，黄金在2018-20年涨了不少，今年调整一下也是正常的，但未来前景依然看好。\n记者：除了黄金之外，比特币在去年的“放水”行情下也有惊人的表现，那您对比特币后续的投资价值怎么看？\n李迅雷：比特币波动性比较大，这一特点使其很难成为一种货币，因此无法用在交易结算上。但它毕竟能够从这么多虚拟货币中脱颖而出，地位是摆在那里的，以后或许会是一个有限范围的投资品种，更像是一种资产。\n03 为什么要看宏观？\n记者：不少个人投资者以及部分机构投资者，对于宏观的关注度并不高，您认为宏观对于投资的意义是什么？\n李迅雷：宏观研究是一种典型的自上而下的研究，宏观研究可以让你通过财政政策、货币政策来判断大环境对自己的影响。现在之所以很多机构不配宏观研究员，主要是因为宏观服务非常开放，报告取得较为容易，大家对宏观研究员的需求也相对减少。\n但我觉得宏观也不能够简单停留在一些CPI、PPI的点评，或点评一下投房地产开发投资额是多少等等，我觉得这种宏观格局太小。我心目当中的宏观研究，它既要有历史的深度，又可以在现实中有实际的应用性和操作性。\n但如果宏观没做到位，就是在给市场制造噪音，始终只是在解读政策，对高频数据作技术分析。我更希望看到宏观研究从成果能引导政策，而不是跟在政策之后。我也常说，我们看宏观要用望远镜，不要用显微镜去看，显微镜看到的都是细枝末节，但宏观它是一个非常宏大、且自上而下的一种研究模式，它更多关注的是“顶层建筑设计”。\n记者：在“宏观-中观-微观”的链条上，请问该如何理解宏观的位置以及发挥的作用？\n李迅雷：我觉得首先要指明大方向，我们常关注美联储利率是往上还是往下，这会影响通胀预期的方向。但从更加长远的角度看，GDP的增速都是持续往下的。这就是我的宏观分析不同之处，侧重社会发展大周期。\n再举个例子，当我在研究历史时，发现中国历次改朝换代多少都与农民起义有关联性。第一个原因，是因为中国是农业大国，当佃农耕地的地租越收越多时，农民收入就会减少，导致社会收入逐渐分化。而长时间的和平，也意味着游戏规则始终不变，分化只会不断加剧，分化其实就是结构扭曲，结构扭曲最终就会导致经济从减速到负增长，最终触发战争。\n之后自上而下研究，就会往各个行业里面探究，而再往下就是探究个体的选择如何被这些宏观、中观的因素所影响。\n记者：最后请教下，您对财政政策和货币政策就未来一段时间的判断大概是什么样的？\n李迅雷：财政我觉得还是会偏紧一些，为什么呢？一方面是宏观杠杆率已经过高了，故政府部门需要降杠杆，因为我们现在要保持经济的长治久安，财政支出就要细水长流。\n那么，未来几年在经济增速下行的趋势下，货币政策就需要相对宽松，尤其当财政政策不是太积极的时候，货币政策就不能太紧了。如果财政紧的话，货币也紧，则稳增长目标就可能很难实现，所以财政“紧”的情况下，货币可以适度松一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120565670,"gmtCreate":1624328249790,"gmtModify":1703833618913,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576110626320378","authorIdStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120565670","repostId":"1182298025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162169255,"gmtCreate":1624043277377,"gmtModify":1703827505060,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576110626320378","authorIdStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162169255","repostId":"1166548417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166548417","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624028501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166548417?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:01","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is it a good time to buy gold at the bottom now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166548417","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"流动性拐点来了\n\n1848年1月，颇有手艺的木匠马歇尔在现今加州首府萨克拉门托北边为他的老板建造锯木厂，在检查锯木厂水道时，看见河床内有一些闪亮的光点，是纯度高达23K的金片。马歇尔发现黄金的消息很快","content":"<p>The turning point in liquidity arrived in January 1848. Marshall, a skilled carpenter, was building a sawmill for his boss north of Sacramento, the capital of present-day California. While inspecting the sawmill waterway, he saw some bright spots in the riverbed, which were gold flakes with a purity of up to 23K. News of Marshall's discovery of gold soon spread to nearby San Francisco.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3086e99a9d8cc5468b5f8d6031329a\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In March 1848, a newspaper report sparked a frenzy, and by June of that year, nearly three-quarters of San Francisco residents had headed to Northern California to prospect for gold, leaving the entire city almost a ghost town. The news then spread from the United States to the world, and the gold rush attracted even more people to join in.</p><p>At the time, then-President Jackson was scrambling to eliminate the effects of the decade-long Great Depression that began in 1837. The emergence of the gold rush led to a surge in gold production in the United States. Between 1851 and 1855, U.S. gold production accounted for 45% of the world's total, gold circulation increased significantly, the financial and securities industry developed rapidly, and the San Francisco Stock Exchange quickly became the second largest stock exchange in the United States after the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>This is the story of the American gold rush, which also stabilized the American economy at that time.</p><p><b>1. Why did it plummet?</b></p><p>Why has gold been so sought after throughout history? Marx, in his \"Critique of Political Economy,\" succinctly revealed the essence: gold and silver are not naturally money, but money is naturally gold and silver.</p><p>In the past two days, due to a highly anticipated meeting, gold, which is naturally a currency, has been in a state of panic.</p><p>Early Thursday morning, after two days of meetings, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision: to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 0%-0.25% range, in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that two rate hike will be achieved by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its economic forecast for 2021 and significantly increased its inflation forecast for this year.</p><p>Following the announcement of the FOMC decision, gold reacted most strongly, with COMEX gold futures plunging 4.7% on the 2nd, hitting a new low since the end of April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f59aaedbd79fabcbebe118ea0bf700\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the Lunar New Year, gold prices rebounded from a low of $1,677 in March to $1,919. The underlying logic supported this was that the continuous easing of monetary policy pushed up global inflation expectations, leading to a decline in real interest rates and supporting the rise in gold prices. Taking the United States as an example, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, the largest year-on-year increase since August 2008.</p><p>However, the logic behind the previous rise in gold prices was significantly undermined after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has somewhat backed down on the issue of the inflation outlook. The original text is as follows: We do not rule out the possibility of continued price increases; The possibility that inflation will persist longer than expected and contribute to rising expectations cannot be ruled out; If we see inflation expectations rise, contrary to our fundamental situation, we will take action to reduce inflation.</p><p>Previously, they had tirelessly reassured the market: don't worry, inflation is temporary. However, last night it was revealed that future inflation may be higher and more persistent than we expected, and that policy preparations are in place for the previous \"misjudgment\".</p><p>Regarding the bond purchase issue, Powell's original words were: If progress continues, a scaling-down plan will be considered at the next meeting. According to the plan, the next meeting is in July. If the economy continues to recover, will tapering also be included?</p><p>The policy meeting also provided a faster pace for rate hike:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f308b03859c0a365f904272d110f9fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve also adjusted the excess reserve rate from 0.1% to 0.15% and the overnight reverse repurchase rate from 0% to 0.05%.</p><p>In short, the Federal Reserve described the monetary policy reversal in an extremely tactful manner and made many cover-ups on the issue, but the market reaction was more realistic, concluding that the Fed's monetary policy was about to reverse. The market anticipates that the dollar has reached a turning point and that real interest rates will rise. This is the underlying logic behind the sharp drop in gold prices.</p><p><b>2. What do you think about the future?</b></p><p>First, let's look at the two main pricing logics behind gold.</p><p>Historically, gold has been used as a hard currency to \"fight inflation\". Inflation, gold rises, deflation, gold falls. Like the stock market, gold is traded based on expectations.</p><p>When the market expects inflation to rise, gold prices will rise. If the final data confirms that inflation is not high or even reasonable, then gold prices will fall back. Furthermore, if the market expects deflation, gold prices will fall. Once deflation is priced in by the market, and there is even a slight expectation of a rebound in inflation, gold prices will be immediately pushed up.</p><p>Another major factor determining the medium- to long-term trend of gold is the nominal interest rate, also known as opportunity cost. When nominal interest rates are low, that is, when opportunity costs are low, gold will rise, and vice versa. This is similar to another pair of seesaws—the stock market and the bond market.</p><p>The combination of two factors means that the real interest rate is the sole logic behind the medium- to long-term trend of absolute gold prices. In the short term, it is necessary to add safe-haven functions, such as unexpected geopolitical events.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f504e3431540948d72e73ffad7dcf821\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here is a formula: real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation.</p><p>When nominal interest rates fall (which is good for gold) and inflation falls faster than the former (which is bad for gold), real interest rates rise relatively, so the combined effect of the two points to a decline in gold.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting sent a clear signal: the inflection point in dollar liquidity expectations has arrived, leading to a rise in expected real interest rates and putting significant pressure on gold prices. In the future, if US inflation continues to rise, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will shift its monetary policy in a way that exceeds expectations. If this evolves accordingly, it means that gold may not have fallen to its full potential yet, and investors who are currently buying on dips should be very cautious.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is it a good time to buy gold at the bottom now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs it a good time to buy gold at the bottom now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The turning point in liquidity arrived in January 1848. Marshall, a skilled carpenter, was building a sawmill for his boss north of Sacramento, the capital of present-day California. While inspecting the sawmill waterway, he saw some bright spots in the riverbed, which were gold flakes with a purity of up to 23K. News of Marshall's discovery of gold soon spread to nearby San Francisco.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3086e99a9d8cc5468b5f8d6031329a\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In March 1848, a newspaper report sparked a frenzy, and by June of that year, nearly three-quarters of San Francisco residents had headed to Northern California to prospect for gold, leaving the entire city almost a ghost town. The news then spread from the United States to the world, and the gold rush attracted even more people to join in.</p><p>At the time, then-President Jackson was scrambling to eliminate the effects of the decade-long Great Depression that began in 1837. The emergence of the gold rush led to a surge in gold production in the United States. Between 1851 and 1855, U.S. gold production accounted for 45% of the world's total, gold circulation increased significantly, the financial and securities industry developed rapidly, and the San Francisco Stock Exchange quickly became the second largest stock exchange in the United States after the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>This is the story of the American gold rush, which also stabilized the American economy at that time.</p><p><b>1. Why did it plummet?</b></p><p>Why has gold been so sought after throughout history? Marx, in his \"Critique of Political Economy,\" succinctly revealed the essence: gold and silver are not naturally money, but money is naturally gold and silver.</p><p>In the past two days, due to a highly anticipated meeting, gold, which is naturally a currency, has been in a state of panic.</p><p>Early Thursday morning, after two days of meetings, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision: to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 0%-0.25% range, in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that two rate hike will be achieved by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its economic forecast for 2021 and significantly increased its inflation forecast for this year.</p><p>Following the announcement of the FOMC decision, gold reacted most strongly, with COMEX gold futures plunging 4.7% on the 2nd, hitting a new low since the end of April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f59aaedbd79fabcbebe118ea0bf700\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the Lunar New Year, gold prices rebounded from a low of $1,677 in March to $1,919. The underlying logic supported this was that the continuous easing of monetary policy pushed up global inflation expectations, leading to a decline in real interest rates and supporting the rise in gold prices. Taking the United States as an example, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, the largest year-on-year increase since August 2008.</p><p>However, the logic behind the previous rise in gold prices was significantly undermined after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has somewhat backed down on the issue of the inflation outlook. The original text is as follows: We do not rule out the possibility of continued price increases; The possibility that inflation will persist longer than expected and contribute to rising expectations cannot be ruled out; If we see inflation expectations rise, contrary to our fundamental situation, we will take action to reduce inflation.</p><p>Previously, they had tirelessly reassured the market: don't worry, inflation is temporary. However, last night it was revealed that future inflation may be higher and more persistent than we expected, and that policy preparations are in place for the previous \"misjudgment\".</p><p>Regarding the bond purchase issue, Powell's original words were: If progress continues, a scaling-down plan will be considered at the next meeting. According to the plan, the next meeting is in July. If the economy continues to recover, will tapering also be included?</p><p>The policy meeting also provided a faster pace for rate hike:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f308b03859c0a365f904272d110f9fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve also adjusted the excess reserve rate from 0.1% to 0.15% and the overnight reverse repurchase rate from 0% to 0.05%.</p><p>In short, the Federal Reserve described the monetary policy reversal in an extremely tactful manner and made many cover-ups on the issue, but the market reaction was more realistic, concluding that the Fed's monetary policy was about to reverse. The market anticipates that the dollar has reached a turning point and that real interest rates will rise. This is the underlying logic behind the sharp drop in gold prices.</p><p><b>2. What do you think about the future?</b></p><p>First, let's look at the two main pricing logics behind gold.</p><p>Historically, gold has been used as a hard currency to \"fight inflation\". Inflation, gold rises, deflation, gold falls. Like the stock market, gold is traded based on expectations.</p><p>When the market expects inflation to rise, gold prices will rise. If the final data confirms that inflation is not high or even reasonable, then gold prices will fall back. Furthermore, if the market expects deflation, gold prices will fall. Once deflation is priced in by the market, and there is even a slight expectation of a rebound in inflation, gold prices will be immediately pushed up.</p><p>Another major factor determining the medium- to long-term trend of gold is the nominal interest rate, also known as opportunity cost. When nominal interest rates are low, that is, when opportunity costs are low, gold will rise, and vice versa. This is similar to another pair of seesaws—the stock market and the bond market.</p><p>The combination of two factors means that the real interest rate is the sole logic behind the medium- to long-term trend of absolute gold prices. In the short term, it is necessary to add safe-haven functions, such as unexpected geopolitical events.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f504e3431540948d72e73ffad7dcf821\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here is a formula: real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation.</p><p>When nominal interest rates fall (which is good for gold) and inflation falls faster than the former (which is bad for gold), real interest rates rise relatively, so the combined effect of the two points to a decline in gold.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting sent a clear signal: the inflection point in dollar liquidity expectations has arrived, leading to a rise in expected real interest rates and putting significant pressure on gold prices. In the future, if US inflation continues to rise, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will shift its monetary policy in a way that exceeds expectations. If this evolves accordingly, it means that gold may not have fallen to its full potential yet, and investors who are currently buying on dips should be very cautious.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166548417","content_text":"流动性拐点来了\n\n1848年1月，颇有手艺的木匠马歇尔在现今加州首府萨克拉门托北边为他的老板建造锯木厂，在检查锯木厂水道时，看见河床内有一些闪亮的光点，是纯度高达23K的金片。马歇尔发现黄金的消息很快泄露，不久传到附近的旧金山。\n\n1848年3月，被一家报纸报道后掀起热潮，到了当年6月，差不多3/4的旧金山居民都奔赴北加州淘金，整个旧金山几乎成为空城。此后，消息又从美国传向世界，淘金热吸引了更多人的加入。\n当时，时任美国总统杰克逊正在为消除始于1837年的十年经济大衰退影响而焦头烂额。淘金热的出现，使得美国的黄金产量开始飙升，1851-1855年间，美国黄金产量达世界总产量的45%，黄金流通量大增，金融证券业快速发展，旧金山证券交易所迅速成为仅次于纽交所的美国第二大证券交易所。\n这就是美国淘金热的故事，也稳定了彼时的美国经济。\n1.缘何暴跌\n为什么黄金从古到今如此受追捧，马克思在《政治经济学批判》中一语道破了本质：金银天然不是货币，但货币天然是金银。\n最近两天，由于一场万众瞩目的会议，天然是货币的黄金风声鹤唳。\n周四凌晨，美联储经过两天的会议之后，公布最新利率决议：维持基准利率在0%-0.25%区间不变，符合预期。美联储点阵图显示，到2023年底将实现两次加息。同时，美联储上调了2021年的经济预期，并大幅上调了今年的通胀预期。\nFOMC决策公布后，反应最为剧烈的就是黄金，COMEX黄金期货2日重挫4.7%，创今年4月底以来的新低。\n\n年后这波黄金从3月份最低点1677美元一路反弹至1919美元，底层逻辑支撑的就是不断放水背景下推升全球通胀预期，导致实际利率下滑，支撑金价上行。以美国为例，5月CPI经季节性调整后同比增长5%，创2008年8月以来最大同比增幅。\n不过，美联储议息会议后，前期黄金上涨的逻辑遭受了不小破坏。\n对于通胀前景问题，美联储有点认怂。原文如下：我们不排除价格继续上涨的可能性；不排除通货膨胀会比预期持续更长时间的可能性，并助长预期上升；如果看到通胀预期上升，与我们的基本情况相反，我们将采取行动降低通胀。\n而在此前不厌其烦的安抚市场：别担心，通胀是暂时的。但昨晚却透露了未来通胀可能会比我们预期的更高更持久，并为此前的“误判”做好政策准备。\n对于购债问题，鲍威尔的原话是：如果进展继续，将在接下来的会议上考虑缩减规模的计划。按照计划，下一次会议是7月，如果经济继续恢复，缩债是不是也要安排上了呢！\n议息会议还给出了更快的加息节奏：\n\n另外，美联储还将超额准备金利率从0.1%调整至0.15%，将隔夜逆回购利率由0%调整至0.05%。\n总之，美联储将货币政策掉头一事说的极其委婉，并对此问题上做了许多遮掩，但市场的反应更为真实，认定美联储的货币政策将要掉头。市场预期美元拐点来了，预期实际利率会上行。这是黄金大幅暴跌的底层逻辑。\n2.未来怎么看？\n首先，我们来看下黄金的两大定价逻辑。\n历来，黄金作为“抗通胀”的硬货币。通胀，黄金上涨，通缩，黄金下跌。黄金同股市一样，均是交易预期。\n当市场预期通胀加大，金价会上行，如果最终数据证实通胀不大甚至合理，那么金价就会回落。再者，市场预期出现通缩，黄金下跌，当被通缩被市场Price in之后，稍有通胀回升预期，黄金会立马被拉涨。\n决定黄金中长期走势的另外一大因素的是名义利率，也就是所谓的机会成本。当名义利率低，即机会成本低的时候，黄金会上涨，反之亦然。这跟另一对跷跷板——股市与债市，异曲同工。\n两个因素综合，即真实利率是绝对黄金价格中长期走势的唯一逻辑。短期逻辑上，需要加上避险功能，比如突发的地缘政治等。\n\n这里有一个公式：真实利率=名义利率-通胀。\n当名义利率下降（利好黄金），通胀较前者下降更快的时候（利空黄金），真实利率相对提升，那么两者合力指向黄金下跌。\n此次美联储议息会议传达出较为明显的信号：美元流动性预期拐点来了，导致预期的实际利率攀升，对黄金价格产生明显施压。未来，美国通胀继续攀升，美联储是有不小概率以超预期的方式转向货币政策，如果按照这个来演化，那么意味着黄金可能还没有跌到位，当前抄底做多的投资者还需非常谨慎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":127902599,"gmtCreate":1624809774411,"gmtModify":1703845439461,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127902599","repostId":"1185056773","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185056773","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624764660,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185056773?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"280,000 units! Is Tesla's largest recall in history confirmed by automatic acceleration?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185056773","media":"新智元","summary":"国家市场监督管理总局昨天发布了特斯拉的召回通知：共计285520辆Model 3和Model Y由于可能存在车辆「速度突增」的隐患，将通过OTA的方式在线召回。这也是官方首次宣布特斯拉可能存在突然加速的隐患。6月26日，国家市场监督管理总局发布通告称，特斯拉将召回211,256 辆国产Model 3和38,599辆国产Model Y，以及35,665辆进口Model 3。目前，总部位于加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托的特斯拉公司还没有回复。特斯拉随后在其官方微博上也发表了相关声明。","content":"<p><b>[Introduction]</b>The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a recall notice from Tesla yesterday: a total of 285,520 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will be recalled online via OTA due to a potential \"speed increase\" issue. This is also the first time that Tesla has been officially announced to have a potential risk of sudden acceleration.</p><p>The brake failure issue hasn't been resolved yet, and there's still the danger of sudden acceleration?</p><p>On June 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice stating that Tesla will recall 211,256 domestically produced Model 3s and 38,599 domestically produced Model Ys, as well as 35,665 imported Model 3s.</p><p>Tesla, headquartered in Palo Alto, California, has not yet responded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d33576459c033e1b802f6283ee534e22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0464ce9d3562446bf973ff3653ba930\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tesla subsequently issued a related statement on its official Weibo account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d05d9a2daf49dc7fa4d9b87e2c0e5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Interestingly, however, these two documents seem to be saying the same thing, but their expressions are completely different.</p><p>The regulatory authority stated, \"Due to a problem with the active cruise control system, the vehicles within the scope of this recall are prone to drivers mistakenly activating the active cruise function in the following situations.\"</p><p>Tesla: \"Because the active cruise control function may be accidentally activated by the driver.\"</p><p>The regulatory bureau stated, \"This recall was conducted after the State Administration for Market Regulation launched a defect investigation. As a result of the investigation, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. have decided to take recall measures to eliminate the safety hazard.\"</p><p>Tesla: \"Adhering to a responsible attitude towards consumers, we have proactively filed a recall plan with the State Administration for Market Regulation.\"</p><p><b>Active cruise \"wrong\" start</b></p><p>The active cruise control function of the Tesla Model 3/Y is activated by pressing the right gear lever down once when the vehicle is in D gear.</p><p>After activating the active cruise function, the vehicle will increase its speed to the set speed or the same speed as the vehicle in front while maintaining a safe distance from the vehicle in front, based on the \"Current Speed\" or \"Road Speed Limit\" settings selected by the user.</p><p>Users can exit the active cruise control function by pressing the right lever upwards once or by applying the brake.</p><p>After active cruise control is incorrectly activated, if the vehicle sets a cruise speed other than the current speed and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed.</p><p>A sudden increase in vehicle speed can affect the driver's expectations and lead to misjudgments in vehicle handling.</p><p>On January 6, a netizen posted a video of active cruise control being mistakenly activated. Clearly, the car owner had no idea what was going on at the time.</p><p>A blogger on Douyin demonstrated how Tesla enters active cruise mode with all assistance turned off.</p><p>Tesla stated that this OTA \"recall\" will raise the threshold for activating active cruise control and add reminders when active cruise control is activated and deactivated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5f80e8e1f69769d64dea833f691ba4\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Quality issues?</b></p><p>Data shows that 93.7% of the sales of Tesla cars produced locally at Tesla's Shanghai factory are recalled vehicles manufactured in China.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also questioned Tesla about whether the quality was affected by the fast manufacturing speed, but received no answer.</p><p>In February, Tesla was summoned for talks due to consumer complaints about quality issues.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e851bdb64d4e80403a999df7faf3f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In April, a consumer expressed a strong protest against Tesla at the Shanghai Auto Show, shouting accusations of brake failure in Tesla cars from the roof.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8f628e28bbc1cf94da384ff9e1f62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Wall Street Journal stated that Tesla's quality problems are no longer news.</p><p>Tesla has always been considered a well-known brand in China, and Musk has stated that China's rapidly growing market will become the company's largest market.</p><p>Has the situation changed now? Not entirely.</p><p><b>Simplified control logic</b></p><p>From the very beginning of its design, Tesla has emphasized the human-computer interaction logic of \"disrupting traditional models,\" which is even more vividly reflected in the Model 3.</p><p>Car owners can simply put their keys in their pockets, pull the handle, and enter the vehicle directly. Once seated, they no longer need to press the start button; they can simply press the gear shift lever to move the vehicle forward.</p><p>Most of the physical buttons inside the car have been removed, even the instrument panel in front of the steering wheel, and the driver only needs to interact with the vehicle through the large screen in the center.</p><p>This design philosophy is implemented more thoroughly in the new Model S Plaid: all physical buttons have been eliminated inside the car, and everything is controlled by touch, and the vehicle can even automatically determine whether to shift into forward or reverse gear.</p><p>When enabling Tesla's proud Autopilot feature, Tesla's operational logic was also revolutionary: although the gear shift lever came from Mercedes-Benz, Tesla integrated it with the gear shift lever while keeping all the functions simple.</p><p>The cruise control function of Mercedes-Benz models is either securely integrated into the steering wheel or a separate control lever.</p><p>Previously, a netizen pointed out this hidden danger on a forum of a vertical automotive website:</p><p>To highlight the vehicle's intelligence, the Model 3's cruise control function differs from traditional models: it automatically sets the speed to the maximum speed limit of the current road, rather than the current driving speed, which leads to \"automatic acceleration\".</p><p>While this helps reduce operational steps, it also poses a risk when integrated with Tesla's unique control methods.</p><p><b>Unresolved brake door</b></p><p>This recall, to some extent, officially explains the previously reported issue with Tesla's automatic acceleration. However, the rights protection incident that took place at the Shanghai Auto Show is still stuck in a Rashomon-like situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782bafca8d6a9296edc64b3e1257668f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A car owner protesting at the auto show stated that the vehicle was traveling on the Anyang National Highway in Henan Province when it rear-ended the vehicle in front due to brake system failure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120fee1da02f4376d31743b8741d541\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"778\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to official vehicle condition monitoring information, the deceleration of the vehicle's brakes at the time did not correspond reasonably to the pressure of the brake master cylinder.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04230d5588379e2d85a114dc62a8c7c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"919\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some experts analyze that it may be due to poor road traction, while others question whether Tesla's Intelligent Driving system has gained too much permission, causing the iBooster electronic braking system provided by Bosch to fail to function effectively.</p><p>However, due to the current stalemate between the two sides, it seems that the true situation at the time will never come to light.</p><p>Following this online recall via OTA (over-the-air upgrade), Tesla's cruise control activation logic will change, and the system will provide drivers with more prompts.</p><p>Interestingly, both Li Auto and XPeng Automobile, emerging domestic car manufacturers, adopt cruise control logic very similar to Tesla's.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c51901d6c1963ab3572f0c7bf44cf0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Led by Tesla, a disruptive force, more and more models are now equipped with similar (or even richer) intelligent and automated features. This recall also serves as a reminder to other automakers in the automotive industry: the prerequisite for adding any intelligent and convenient features inside a car should be safety.</p>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>280,000 units! Is Tesla's largest recall in history confirmed by automatic acceleration?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n280,000 units! Is Tesla's largest recall in history confirmed by automatic acceleration?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新智元</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>[Introduction]</b>The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a recall notice from Tesla yesterday: a total of 285,520 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will be recalled online via OTA due to a potential \"speed increase\" issue. This is also the first time that Tesla has been officially announced to have a potential risk of sudden acceleration.</p><p>The brake failure issue hasn't been resolved yet, and there's still the danger of sudden acceleration?</p><p>On June 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice stating that Tesla will recall 211,256 domestically produced Model 3s and 38,599 domestically produced Model Ys, as well as 35,665 imported Model 3s.</p><p>Tesla, headquartered in Palo Alto, California, has not yet responded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d33576459c033e1b802f6283ee534e22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0464ce9d3562446bf973ff3653ba930\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tesla subsequently issued a related statement on its official Weibo account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d05d9a2daf49dc7fa4d9b87e2c0e5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Interestingly, however, these two documents seem to be saying the same thing, but their expressions are completely different.</p><p>The regulatory authority stated, \"Due to a problem with the active cruise control system, the vehicles within the scope of this recall are prone to drivers mistakenly activating the active cruise function in the following situations.\"</p><p>Tesla: \"Because the active cruise control function may be accidentally activated by the driver.\"</p><p>The regulatory bureau stated, \"This recall was conducted after the State Administration for Market Regulation launched a defect investigation. As a result of the investigation, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. have decided to take recall measures to eliminate the safety hazard.\"</p><p>Tesla: \"Adhering to a responsible attitude towards consumers, we have proactively filed a recall plan with the State Administration for Market Regulation.\"</p><p><b>Active cruise \"wrong\" start</b></p><p>The active cruise control function of the Tesla Model 3/Y is activated by pressing the right gear lever down once when the vehicle is in D gear.</p><p>After activating the active cruise function, the vehicle will increase its speed to the set speed or the same speed as the vehicle in front while maintaining a safe distance from the vehicle in front, based on the \"Current Speed\" or \"Road Speed Limit\" settings selected by the user.</p><p>Users can exit the active cruise control function by pressing the right lever upwards once or by applying the brake.</p><p>After active cruise control is incorrectly activated, if the vehicle sets a cruise speed other than the current speed and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed.</p><p>A sudden increase in vehicle speed can affect the driver's expectations and lead to misjudgments in vehicle handling.</p><p>On January 6, a netizen posted a video of active cruise control being mistakenly activated. Clearly, the car owner had no idea what was going on at the time.</p><p>A blogger on Douyin demonstrated how Tesla enters active cruise mode with all assistance turned off.</p><p>Tesla stated that this OTA \"recall\" will raise the threshold for activating active cruise control and add reminders when active cruise control is activated and deactivated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5f80e8e1f69769d64dea833f691ba4\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Quality issues?</b></p><p>Data shows that 93.7% of the sales of Tesla cars produced locally at Tesla's Shanghai factory are recalled vehicles manufactured in China.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also questioned Tesla about whether the quality was affected by the fast manufacturing speed, but received no answer.</p><p>In February, Tesla was summoned for talks due to consumer complaints about quality issues.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e851bdb64d4e80403a999df7faf3f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In April, a consumer expressed a strong protest against Tesla at the Shanghai Auto Show, shouting accusations of brake failure in Tesla cars from the roof.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8f628e28bbc1cf94da384ff9e1f62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Wall Street Journal stated that Tesla's quality problems are no longer news.</p><p>Tesla has always been considered a well-known brand in China, and Musk has stated that China's rapidly growing market will become the company's largest market.</p><p>Has the situation changed now? Not entirely.</p><p><b>Simplified control logic</b></p><p>From the very beginning of its design, Tesla has emphasized the human-computer interaction logic of \"disrupting traditional models,\" which is even more vividly reflected in the Model 3.</p><p>Car owners can simply put their keys in their pockets, pull the handle, and enter the vehicle directly. Once seated, they no longer need to press the start button; they can simply press the gear shift lever to move the vehicle forward.</p><p>Most of the physical buttons inside the car have been removed, even the instrument panel in front of the steering wheel, and the driver only needs to interact with the vehicle through the large screen in the center.</p><p>This design philosophy is implemented more thoroughly in the new Model S Plaid: all physical buttons have been eliminated inside the car, and everything is controlled by touch, and the vehicle can even automatically determine whether to shift into forward or reverse gear.</p><p>When enabling Tesla's proud Autopilot feature, Tesla's operational logic was also revolutionary: although the gear shift lever came from Mercedes-Benz, Tesla integrated it with the gear shift lever while keeping all the functions simple.</p><p>The cruise control function of Mercedes-Benz models is either securely integrated into the steering wheel or a separate control lever.</p><p>Previously, a netizen pointed out this hidden danger on a forum of a vertical automotive website:</p><p>To highlight the vehicle's intelligence, the Model 3's cruise control function differs from traditional models: it automatically sets the speed to the maximum speed limit of the current road, rather than the current driving speed, which leads to \"automatic acceleration\".</p><p>While this helps reduce operational steps, it also poses a risk when integrated with Tesla's unique control methods.</p><p><b>Unresolved brake door</b></p><p>This recall, to some extent, officially explains the previously reported issue with Tesla's automatic acceleration. However, the rights protection incident that took place at the Shanghai Auto Show is still stuck in a Rashomon-like situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782bafca8d6a9296edc64b3e1257668f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A car owner protesting at the auto show stated that the vehicle was traveling on the Anyang National Highway in Henan Province when it rear-ended the vehicle in front due to brake system failure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120fee1da02f4376d31743b8741d541\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"778\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to official vehicle condition monitoring information, the deceleration of the vehicle's brakes at the time did not correspond reasonably to the pressure of the brake master cylinder.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04230d5588379e2d85a114dc62a8c7c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"919\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some experts analyze that it may be due to poor road traction, while others question whether Tesla's Intelligent Driving system has gained too much permission, causing the iBooster electronic braking system provided by Bosch to fail to function effectively.</p><p>However, due to the current stalemate between the two sides, it seems that the true situation at the time will never come to light.</p><p>Following this online recall via OTA (over-the-air upgrade), Tesla's cruise control activation logic will change, and the system will provide drivers with more prompts.</p><p>Interestingly, both Li Auto and XPeng Automobile, emerging domestic car manufacturers, adopt cruise control logic very similar to Tesla's.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c51901d6c1963ab3572f0c7bf44cf0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Led by Tesla, a disruptive force, more and more models are now equipped with similar (or even richer) intelligent and automated features. This recall also serves as a reminder to other automakers in the automotive industry: the prerequisite for adding any intelligent and convenient features inside a car should be safety.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/okPYp2y8RUP0VfjmJ_ddQw\">新智元</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0d9f23e003547a93295253f05b6a55","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/okPYp2y8RUP0VfjmJ_ddQw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185056773","content_text":"【导读】国家市场监督管理总局昨天发布了特斯拉的召回通知：共计285520辆Model 3和Model Y由于可能存在车辆「速度突增」的隐患，将通过OTA的方式在线召回。这也是官方首次宣布特斯拉可能存在突然加速的隐患。\n刹车失灵的问题还没解决，现在还有突然加速的危险？\n6月26日，国家市场监督管理总局发布通告称，特斯拉将召回211,256 辆国产Model 3和38,599辆国产Model Y，以及35,665辆进口Model 3。\n目前，总部位于加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托的特斯拉公司还没有回复。\n\n特斯拉随后在其官方微博上也发表了相关声明。\n\n然而有趣的是，这两份文件看似在说同一件事，但表述却完全不一样。\n监管局：「本次召回范围内的车辆由于主动巡航控制系统问题，易造成驾驶员在以下情形误激活主动巡航功能。」\n特斯拉：「由于主动巡航控制功能可能被驾驶员误激活。」\n监管局：「本次召回活动是在国家市场监督管理总局启动缺陷调查情况下开展的。受调查影响，特斯拉汽车（北京）有限公司、特斯拉（上海）有限公司决定采取召回措施，消除安全隐患。」\n特斯拉：「秉承对消费者负责的态度，我们主动向国家市场监督管理总局备案了召回计划。」\n主动巡航「误」启动\n特斯拉Model 3/Y的主动巡航功能的开启方式为，车辆在D挡时向下拨动一次右侧挡杆。\n启动主动巡航功能后，车辆会根据用户选择的「当前车速」或「道路限速」主动巡航限速设置，在保持与前车安全车距情况下，提速至设置车速或与前车同速。\n用户可通过向上拨动一次右侧拨杆，或者踩下刹车退出主动巡航功能。\n主动巡航控制被误激活后，如果车辆设置的巡航速度不是当前车速，且当前车速低于设定速度时，车辆会加速到设定速度。\n出现车辆速度突增情形，会影响驾驶员的预期并导致车辆操控误判。\n1月6日，一位网友就发布了一个主动巡航被误激活的视频，显然，这位车主当时完全搞不清楚是什么情况。\n一位抖音上的博主演示了特斯拉是如何在关闭所有辅助的情况下进入主动巡航模式的。\n特斯拉表示，这次OTA「召回」可以提高激活主动巡航控制的阈值，并且增加了主动巡航控制激活和退出时的提醒方式。\n\n质量问题？\n数据显示，在特斯拉上海工厂本地生产的特斯拉汽车销量中，召回的在中国制造的汽车占 93.7%。\n华尔街日报也质询了特斯拉：「是否是由于制造速度太快而导致质量受到影响」，不过并没有得到答复。\n2月，特斯拉因为消费者投诉的质量问题被约谈。\n\n4月，一位消费者在上海车展上对特斯拉表达出了强烈的抗议，在车顶上大喊对特斯拉汽车刹车故障的指控。\n\n华尔街日报则表示，特斯拉的质量问题早已不是什么新闻了。\n特斯拉在中国一直被视为一个享有盛誉的品牌，马斯克也表示中国快速增长的市场将成为公司最大的市场。\n那现在这种情况是不是出现了一些变化？也不尽然。\n一切从简的控制逻辑\n从设计伊始，特斯拉就在强调“颠覆传统车型”的人机交互逻辑，这一点在Model 3上体现得更加淋漓尽致。\n车主只需将钥匙放在裤兜里，就可以拉动把手直接进入车内，并且入座后无需再按下启动按钮，直接拨动换挡杆就可以让车辆前进。\n车内取消了大部分的物理按键，甚至是方向盘前方的仪表盘，驾驶员只需要通过中央的大屏幕与车辆进行交互。\n这样的设计理念在全新的Model S Plaid上面被贯彻得更加彻底：车内取消了所有的物理按键，全部通过触控来进行控制，而车辆甚至可以自动判断挂前进挡还是倒挡。\n在特斯拉引以为傲的Autopilot功能开启上，特斯拉的操作逻辑也堪称颠覆：虽然换挡拨杆来自奔驰，但特斯拉秉着一切从简的功能，将其与换挡拨杆集成在了一起。\n而奔驰旗下车型的巡航控制功能都稳妥地集成在方向盘上，或者是一个独立的控制拨杆。\n之前在某汽车垂直网站论坛上，也有网友指出过这个隐患：\n为了凸显车辆的智能性，Model 3的定速巡航功能与传统车型不同：它会将速度自动设定在当前道路的最高限速，而非当前行驶的速度，这就会导致「自动加速」的发生。\n诚然这么做有助于减少操作步骤，但同时与特斯拉特殊的控制方法集成在一起时，就带来了隐患。\n悬而未决的刹车门\n此次召回从一定程度上从官方角度解释了之前报道过的特斯拉自动加速的问题。但是在上海车展上上演的维权事件目前仍然陷在罗生门中。\n\n车展维权车主表示：车辆当时在河南安阳国道上行驶，由于刹车系统失效导致追尾前方车辆。\n\n根据官方公布的车辆状态监控信息显示，车辆当时刹车的减速度与制动主缸压力并没有合理对应。\n\n有专业人士分析可能是路面附着力不佳，也有人在质疑特斯拉的智能驾驶系统获得了过高的权限，导致博世为其提供的iBooster电子助力刹车装置未能有效发挥作用。\n但是由于目前双方陷入僵持，当时的真实情况似乎永远无法浮出水面。\n此次通过OTA（空中升级）的方式在线召回之后，特斯拉的定速巡航开启逻辑将会有所变化，并且系统会给驾驶员更多的提示。\n有意思的是，国内新造车势力理想和小鹏汽车都采用了与特斯拉十分相近的巡航系统控制逻辑。\n\n在特斯拉这条鲶鱼的带领下，如今越来越多的车型开始配备了类似的（甚至是更加丰富的）智能化和自动化功能，此次召回也提醒着汽车行业其他的造车者们：车内增加任何智能化和便利性设施的前提，应该是安全性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127902387,"gmtCreate":1624809746449,"gmtModify":1703845438477,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127902387","repostId":"1153706160","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153706160","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624799047,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153706160?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is there a bubble in the US stock market? Dalio and Buffett said this","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153706160","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。考虑利率因素，整个市场或未被明显高估。\n\n过去一年，全球疫情和经济动荡难挡美股节节攀升，IPO和特殊","content":"<p>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000, and 2007. Considering interest rates, the overall market may not be significantly overvalued. Over the past year, the global pandemic and economic turmoil have not stopped US stocks from climbing steadily, and the number of IPOs and special purpose acquisitions (SPACs) has also surged. A large amount of money has been poured into highly uncertain areas, and the entire market seems to be immersed in a bubble frenzy.</p><p>However, Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio and Warren Buffett both stated that there is not much of a bubble in the US stock market right now.</p><p>At this week's RobinHood conference, Dalio, based on his research on stock market bubbles and economic cycles over the past few years, stated that<b>While it is true that signs of a bubble are emerging in some parts of the market, overall there is no bubble in the market, at least not compared to the late 1990s and 2007.</b></p><p>According to his estimate,<b>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000, and 2007.</b>Dalio stated, \"There are many stocks without bubbles,\" and investors must judge for themselves which stocks are in a bubble and which are not yet.</p><p>Buffett this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Similar views were expressed at Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. In answering questions about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>When asked about the stock's \"crazy overvaluation,\" he stated:</p><p>I don't think Apple's valuation is crazy; valuation needs to be compared to interest rates. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department held a four-week short-term U.S. Treasury bond auction worth $40 billion, but the winning bid rate was 0%. US bonds are not yielding much now, and we are in a near-zero interest rate environment. If interest rates remain like this in the long run, then stock prices will appear low. I can't find any bonds that can match Apple and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The profitability level of this type of company. Dalio and Buffett suggest that some parts of the market are overvalued, but if interest rates are taken into account, they both believe that the market as a whole is not significantly overvalued. Overseas investment commentator Rupert Hargreaves says that because the Federal Reserve is so lenient with high corporate debt, investors are generally beginning to view debt as part of a company's assets, which also helps drive up valuations.</p><p>At the same time,<b>Compared to interest rates around zero, many companies have returns on capital as high as double digits.</b>The profitability is extremely attractive.</p><p>Hargreaves stated that this leads to the conclusion that investors can still find attractive investment opportunities at current market levels. As the economy opens up, the S&P 500 may continue to see positive returns.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is there a bubble in the US stock market? Dalio and Buffett said this</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs there a bubble in the US stock market? Dalio and Buffett said this\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 21:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000, and 2007. Considering interest rates, the overall market may not be significantly overvalued. Over the past year, the global pandemic and economic turmoil have not stopped US stocks from climbing steadily, and the number of IPOs and special purpose acquisitions (SPACs) has also surged. A large amount of money has been poured into highly uncertain areas, and the entire market seems to be immersed in a bubble frenzy.</p><p>However, Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio and Warren Buffett both stated that there is not much of a bubble in the US stock market right now.</p><p>At this week's RobinHood conference, Dalio, based on his research on stock market bubbles and economic cycles over the past few years, stated that<b>While it is true that signs of a bubble are emerging in some parts of the market, overall there is no bubble in the market, at least not compared to the late 1990s and 2007.</b></p><p>According to his estimate,<b>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000, and 2007.</b>Dalio stated, \"There are many stocks without bubbles,\" and investors must judge for themselves which stocks are in a bubble and which are not yet.</p><p>Buffett this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Similar views were expressed at Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. In answering questions about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>When asked about the stock's \"crazy overvaluation,\" he stated:</p><p>I don't think Apple's valuation is crazy; valuation needs to be compared to interest rates. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department held a four-week short-term U.S. Treasury bond auction worth $40 billion, but the winning bid rate was 0%. US bonds are not yielding much now, and we are in a near-zero interest rate environment. If interest rates remain like this in the long run, then stock prices will appear low. I can't find any bonds that can match Apple and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The profitability level of this type of company. Dalio and Buffett suggest that some parts of the market are overvalued, but if interest rates are taken into account, they both believe that the market as a whole is not significantly overvalued. Overseas investment commentator Rupert Hargreaves says that because the Federal Reserve is so lenient with high corporate debt, investors are generally beginning to view debt as part of a company's assets, which also helps drive up valuations.</p><p>At the same time,<b>Compared to interest rates around zero, many companies have returns on capital as high as double digits.</b>The profitability is extremely attractive.</p><p>Hargreaves stated that this leads to the conclusion that investors can still find attractive investment opportunities at current market levels. As the economy opens up, the S&P 500 may continue to see positive returns.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153706160","content_text":"标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。考虑利率因素，整个市场或未被明显高估。\n\n过去一年，全球疫情和经济动荡难挡美股节节攀升，IPO和特殊目的收购（SPACs）也数量激增，大量资金被砸向高度不确定的领域，整个市场似乎沉浸于泡沫的狂欢。\n但桥水基金创始人达利欧和股神巴菲特双双表示：美股目前并不存在太多泡沫。\n本周的RobinHood大会上，达利欧基于其过去几年对股市泡沫和经济周期的研究表示，尽管确实看到市场某些部分出现了类似泡沫的迹象，但总体而言，市场并不存在泡沫，至少与上世纪90年代末和2007年相比不存在泡沫。\n据其估计，标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。达利欧称，“有很多股票没有泡沫”，投资者必须自己判断哪些股票处于泡沫之中，哪些还没有。\n巴菲特在今年的伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会上也表达了类似的观点。在回答有关苹果等股票“疯狂高估值”的问题时他表示:\n\n 我不觉得苹果估值疯狂，估值需要和利率做比较。周四美国财政部的四周短期美债拍卖有400亿美元规模，但得标利率为0。现在美国债券没什么收益了，我们在接近零的利率环境，如果长期来看利率是这样的话，那么股票价格就显得低。找不到什么债券能有苹果和谷歌这种公司的盈利水平。\n\n达利欧和巴菲特暗示市场某些部分估值过高，但如果考虑利率因素，都认为整个市场并未被明显高估。海外投资评论人Rupert Hargreaves称，由于美联储对公司高负债如此宽容，投资者普遍开始将债务视为公司资产的一部分，这也有助于推高估值。\n与此同时，与零左右的利率相比，许多公司资本回报率高达两位数，盈利方面极具吸引力。\nHargreaves表示，由此能得出结论，在目前的市场水平下，投资者仍可以找到有吸引力的投资机会。随着经济开放，标普500指数可能会继续看到正回报。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126148979,"gmtCreate":1624548841791,"gmtModify":1703840168728,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126148979","repostId":"2145824046","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126157732,"gmtCreate":1624548689026,"gmtModify":1703840163029,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes&nbsp;","listText":"Yes&nbsp;","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126157732","repostId":"1173297432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173297432","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624546848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173297432?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 23:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla shares rose more than 5%, and the Model 3 and Model Y may sell out in the US.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173297432","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"特斯拉的第三季度数据可能会相当令人印象深刻。","content":"<p>Market sources indicate that the current delivery waiting times for the Model 3 and Model Y in the United States partially suggest...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Demand in the United States remains so strong that it may sell out in the third quarter. Both models are expected to be delivered in the third quarter of 2021. The Model Y Long Range Dual Motor AWD version is expected to be delivered in September 2021, while the Model 3 Standard Range and Long Range Dual Motor AWD versions are expected to be delivered in 11 weeks.</p><p>With the Model S and even the Model X joining the competition in the third quarter, Tesla's third-quarter data could be quite impressive. Given that both of these flagship models are high-margin models, Tesla's financial situation in the third quarter may be boosted by the new Model S (and perhaps also a new Model X).</p><p>According to Electrek data, as of May 2021, Tesla models accounted for more than 54% of electric vehicle sales in the United States. In addition, U.S. electric vehicle sales reached 53,779 units in May, a 19.2% increase compared to April 2021.</p><p>As of press time, Tesla shares were up more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f87da9e5318350fee8df4e0885208cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose more than 5%, and the Model 3 and Model Y may sell out in the US.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose more than 5%, and the Model 3 and Model Y may sell out in the US.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 23:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Market sources indicate that the current delivery waiting times for the Model 3 and Model Y in the United States partially suggest...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Demand in the United States remains so strong that it may sell out in the third quarter. Both models are expected to be delivered in the third quarter of 2021. The Model Y Long Range Dual Motor AWD version is expected to be delivered in September 2021, while the Model 3 Standard Range and Long Range Dual Motor AWD versions are expected to be delivered in 11 weeks.</p><p>With the Model S and even the Model X joining the competition in the third quarter, Tesla's third-quarter data could be quite impressive. Given that both of these flagship models are high-margin models, Tesla's financial situation in the third quarter may be boosted by the new Model S (and perhaps also a new Model X).</p><p>According to Electrek data, as of May 2021, Tesla models accounted for more than 54% of electric vehicle sales in the United States. In addition, U.S. electric vehicle sales reached 53,779 units in May, a 19.2% increase compared to April 2021.</p><p>As of press time, Tesla shares were up more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f87da9e5318350fee8df4e0885208cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0d9f23e003547a93295253f05b6a55","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173297432","content_text":"市场消息，Model 3和Model Y目前在美国的交付等待时间部分暗示了特斯拉在美国的需求仍非常强劲，以至于可能会在第三季度销售一空。这两款车型的预计交付日期都要到2021年第三季度。Model Y长续航双电机全轮驱动版(Long Range Dual Motor AWD)预计交付日期为2021年9月，Model 3标准续航版和长续航双电机全轮驱动版预计交付日期为11周。\n随着Model S，甚至Model X在第三季度加入竞争，特斯拉的第三季度数据可能会相当令人印象深刻。考虑到这两款旗舰车都是高利润车型，特斯拉第三季度的财务状况可能会因为新款Model S(或许还有新款Model X)而得到提振。\n另据Electrek数据：截至2021年5月，特斯拉车型占美国电动汽车销量的54%以上。 此外，5月份美国电动汽车销量达到53779辆，比2021年4月增长了19.2%。\n截至发稿，特斯拉涨超5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126142437,"gmtCreate":1624548940029,"gmtModify":1703840173122,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"????????","listText":"????????","text":"????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126142437","repostId":"1180197914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180197914","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624531757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180197914?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Unusual Movement] Eli Lilly surged in pre-market trading, currently up over 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180197914","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月24日，礼来盘前直线拉涨，现涨超7%，公司治疗早期阿尔茨海默病的donanemab抗体获得美国食品药品监督管理局突破性治疗地位认证。","content":"<p>On June 24,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>The stock surged in pre-market trading and is now up more than 7%. The company's donanemab antibody, which treats early-stage Alzheimer's disease, has received breakthrough therapeutic status certification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ba7c76ea125e4b634a49ccd88450f4\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Unusual Movement] Eli Lilly surged in pre-market trading, currently up over 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Unusual Movement] Eli Lilly surged in pre-market trading, currently up over 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 18:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 24,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>The stock surged in pre-market trading and is now up more than 7%. The company's donanemab antibody, which treats early-stage Alzheimer's disease, has received breakthrough therapeutic status certification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ba7c76ea125e4b634a49ccd88450f4\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180197914","content_text":"6月24日，礼来盘前直线拉涨，现涨超7%，公司治疗早期阿尔茨海默病的donanemab抗体获得美国食品药品监督管理局突破性治疗地位认证。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121072816,"gmtCreate":1624446843735,"gmtModify":1703836934246,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121072816","repostId":"1134186261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134186261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624427164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134186261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 13:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Li Xunlei: Where are the structural opportunities in the era of differentiation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134186261","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"买自己买不到的东西\n\n2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。\n通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“","content":"<p>Buying things you can't buy yourself: In 2020, not only \"core assets\" became famous, but also \"K-shaped recovery\" became popular.</p><p>Typically, after a crisis, the economic recovery trend can be divided into U-shaped, V-shaped, and L-shaped. These technical economic terms are often discussed in small circles, but the \"K-shaped recovery\" unexpectedly went viral during the pandemic.</p><p>Compared to cold academic explanations, this time the public truly felt the divide between the two forces, upward and downward. The wealthy lined up in long queues at luxury stores, housing prices in first-tier cities repeatedly hit new highs, while the lower classes faced wages that could not keep up with inflation, and the year-on-year increase in rents nationwide even turned negative at one point.</p><p>The truth behind the \"K-shaped recovery\" is actually \"differentiation\".</p><p>In an era characterized by a stock-based economy, \"differentiation\" is inevitable. When the times and environment have quietly changed, opportunities are not just waiting for them to arrive. Only those who adjust their direction according to the evolution of development thinking can truly seize them.</p><p>Where exactly are the investment opportunities in this era of differentiation? Regarding this issue, we are fortunate to work with<b>Li, Chief Economist of China and Thailand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a></b>Let's start a conversation. Investment logic in an era of differentiation is vividly distilled into... in Li Xunlei's new book.<b>\"The Power of Trends\"</b>The book uses a top-down deductive approach to predict various market trends, from macroeconomic policies to micro-investments.</p><p><b>As early as 2006, Li Xunlei proposed \"buying things you can't afford\".</b>Against the backdrop of rapid economic growth and a significant increase in the scale of the manufacturing industry, the era of a shortage economy was over, but...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>Apart from durable consumer goods such as color TVs, refrigerators, and washing machines, the family has almost no assets, and the number of tradable stocks nationwide is only over 3 trillion yuan in market value.</p><p><b>In other words, there is a surplus of goods, but assets are still in short supply. This means that people will rush to buy assets in the future, just as they did a decade ago to buy durable consumer goods.</b>Those who understand leverage in opportunities cannot simply explain it with \"good luck\"; there is actually a solid macroeconomic logic behind it.</p><p>Among many macroeconomic researchers, some viewpoints are either too profound and obscure, or too superficial and lack logical support. Having written prolifically for decades, Li Xunlei is undoubtedly one of the few people who can truly explain complex concepts in a simple and easy-to-understand way. The seemingly simple idea of \"buying things you can't afford\" encompasses profound insights into the macroeconomy.</p><p>Today, China's economy has evolved from a shortage to a surplus of goods, capital, and money. Against the backdrop of these three major surpluses, Li Xunlei...<b>Starting in 2018, I proposed to \"buy things I can't buy myself\".</b>。 So what is \"something you can't buy\"? How to invest in \"things you can't buy\"? How to find suitable investment opportunities in an era of differentiation? We tried to find some answers in this interview.</p><p>The following is the main text of the interview.</p><p><b>01 Where are the investment opportunities in this era of differentiation?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Regarding the theme of \"Trend Investing in an Era of Differentiation\", the \"era of existing economy\" and \"differentiation\" are closely related. How do you judge the arrival of the \"era of existing economy\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>To be precise, I am not referring to the \"era of existing economy\", but to the \"era dominated by existing economy\". There is a difference between the two.<b>China's GDP growth rate is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth rate of around 5%, while zero growth like Japan's is the real stock economy. Therefore, at present, it is only said that China has the characteristics of a stock economy.</b></p><p>The emergence of these characteristics has made many people uncomfortable. For example, \"lying flat\" is actually a characteristic of the existing economy. It makes people feel that their hard work is useless and that starting a business is prone to failure. This will lead to a 20/20 split.</p><p>In the past, Chinese corporate investment was very enthusiastic, and private investment grew by about 30% before 2013. Now, the growth rate of private investment is getting lower and lower, and less investment means fewer opportunities. The characteristic of private enterprise investment is that it is pro-cyclical; it contracts when the cycle is downward and expands only when the cycle is upward.</p><p>Therefore, at a discussion in 2017, I proposed the concept of \"stock economy\".<b>China has now entered a stage dominated by a stock economy, which is characterized by the strong getting stronger, the survival of the fittest, and the rise and fall of one another. This is the so-called \"differentiation\".</b>The past \"incremental economy\" was characterized by \"chickens and dogs ascending to heaven\" and \"small is beautiful.\" In the past, we often said \"ordinary people rise again.\" Although this word is not elegant, it reflects that it was an era with more opportunities.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Against the backdrop of polarization, what opportunities do you think ordinary people have?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>There are still opportunities, mainly structural ones. From a historical perspective, China entered the early 21st century...<b>Commodity surplus</b>In those days, assets were relatively scarce, so in 2006 I proposed to buy things I couldn't afford, namely investing and leveraging. However, as everyone increased their asset allocation ratios, more than a decade later, the following...<b>Excess total assets</b>The era.</p><p>In an era of commodity surplus and asset surplus, in order to stimulate the economy, government authorities will inevitably issue excessive money, and the result of excessive money issuance is, of course,<b>Excess money supply</b>So right now it is<b>An era of triple oversupply</b>。</p><p><b>However, the so-called surplus refers to \"total surplus\" and \"structural shortage\" still exists. Therefore, for ordinary individuals, the opportunities that can be seized against the backdrop of fewer total opportunities are called \"structural opportunities\" because this type of opportunity exists for a long time.</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>What is the main logic behind your previous emphasis that \"future investment opportunities will mainly be on the supply side\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>The main logic is that China currently has insufficient effective demand, and with a surplus of money, there is a structural shortage. Therefore, the supply-side investment opportunities I am talking about are actually structural opportunities. From an investment perspective, as long as an area of \"structural shortage\" is discovered, it is an opportunity to make a profit.</p><p><b>In the future, what matters more is what you provide.</b>For example, the supply of rice has a limited total demand; Or when pork prices rise, people feel that pig farming is profitable, so they start raising pigs, increasing supply and causing pork prices to fall. Moreover, in the long run, with the process of consumption upgrading in China, pork consumption is expected to decline. This is partly because after income increases and consumption upgrades, consumption of high-priced meats such as beef will increase. On the other hand, China accounts for 18% of the world's population, but consumes 50% of the world's pork, which is expected to decline in the future.</p><p>For example, Dutch lithography refuses to sell to China, which is a shortage of \"core technologies\"; For example, there is also a shortage of some high-end products from national brands, meaning that demand continues to rise and they are not sensitive to prices, but the supply is still insufficient.</p><p><b>reporter</b>During the current period of slowdown and shift in the domestic economy, in which industries do you think structural investment opportunities will emerge?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>In fact, in every industry, as long as so-called \"high-end demand\" and \"effective demand\" can be found, there are opportunities. Even the steel industry is not entirely without opportunities, such as \"special steel\". However, looking at \"crude steel\" alone, there is indeed overcapacity and total volume.</p><p>In addition, although we say that domestic \"effective demand\" is insufficient, demand in some areas is still quite sufficient. For example, the biopharmaceutical industry will have relatively high growth potential in the future, especially the drugs they have developed to treat and alleviate cardiovascular diseases or fight cancer. In the future, as people's wealth increases, they all hope to extend their lifespan, because no matter how much money they earn, it will be difficult to buy the elixir of longevity. By the same logic, since we all believe that \"youth\" is priceless, when many people want to preserve their youth, the demand in the medical aesthetics industry emerges.</p><p><b>02 How should we view real estate, gold, and Bitcoin?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Following the release of the data from the Seventh National Population Census, do you believe that population aging and regional structural imbalances are two trends that require vigilance? Under these two trends, how do you view the future real estate market?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>There is an overall surplus, and with the aging population, the demand for real estate will also decrease. Because of the aging population, people are more willing to invest their money in places with shorter terms, such as fixed income, equity assets, or places with good liquidity, and are less willing to invest in real estate. In addition, an aging population will lead to a decrease in our willingness to invest and an increase in our willingness to consume.</p><p>But structural opportunities remain,<b>The seventh national census shows that the population is still concentrating in first- and second-tier cities. This trend has not changed, and these cities will continue to see net population inflows in the future. Therefore, it is still possible to invest in real estate in these large cities. However, the problem is that the current valuations are too high, which is a characteristic of Chinese housing prices.</b></p><p>This is related to Chinese cultural factors. Chinese people like to invest, manage finances, and buy property, while Westerners do not have such a great demand in this area. This is closely related to our East Asian cultural background.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Do you think recent inflation trends have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy? Is inflation a short-term or long-term problem? What are your thoughts on gold this year?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>The Federal Reserve's primary goal is employment, not inflation. If non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, the Fed's tightening of monetary policy will likely be delayed. However, I believe the Fed's \"taper\" move is possible at the end of the third or fourth quarter.</p><p>In my view, the current inflation is most likely a short- to medium-term phenomenon that may last for more than a year. This inflation may be a \"catch-up\" to the deflation caused by excessive money supply in the past, and it may also be an emotional catharsis. Looking at the level of influence on the US financial market after the Federal Reserve eased monetary policy, it should not be high, because the US has a relatively weak ability to create money through commercial banks. Chinese commercial banks have a stronger motivation to create money, which is why the People's Bank of China does not expand its balance sheet much and does not need to release as much liquidity as the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As for gold, its price depends on the level of real interest rates in the short term. If real interest rates fall, it will be beneficial for gold. In the long run, it depends on the extent of excessive money supply. Gold prices rose significantly in 2018-20, and a slight adjustment this year is normal, but the future outlook remains promising.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Besides gold, Bitcoin also performed remarkably well during last year's \"easing\" market. What are your thoughts on the future investment value of Bitcoin?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei: Bitcoin is highly volatile, which makes it difficult for it to become a currency.</b>Therefore, it cannot be used for transaction settlement. But it has been able to stand out from so many virtual currencies, and its status is undeniable.<b>In the future, it may be a limited investment product, more like an asset.</b></p><p><b>03 Why look at the macro perspective?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Many individual investors and some institutional investors do not pay much attention to the macro economy. What do you think is the significance of the macro economy for investment?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>Macroeconomic research is a typical top-down research that allows you to judge the impact of the macroeconomic environment on yourself through fiscal and monetary policies. The reason why many institutions do not have macro researchers is mainly because macro services are very open, reports are relatively easy to obtain, and the demand for macro researchers is relatively reduced.</p><p>However, I think the macro picture cannot simply be limited to commenting on CPI and PPI, or commenting on the amount of investment in real estate development, etc. I think this kind of macro picture is too small. In my mind, macroeconomic research should have both historical depth and practical applicability and operability in reality.</p><p>However, if the macroeconomic situation is not done properly, it is creating noise for the market and is only interpreting policies and conducting technical analysis of high-frequency data. I would prefer to see macroeconomic research guide policy based on its results, rather than following policy.<b>I often say that we should use a telescope to look at the macro, not a microscope. A microscope only sees the smallest details, but the macro is a very grand and top-down research model that focuses more on \"top-level architectural design\".</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>In the chain of \"macro-meso-micro\", how should we understand the position and role of the macro?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>I think the first thing to do is to point out the general direction. We often pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve's interest rates will go up or down, which will affect the direction of inflation expectations. However, from a longer-term perspective, GDP growth has continued to decline. This is what makes my macro analysis different.<b>Focusing on the major cycle of social development</b>。</p><p>To give another example, when I was studying history, I discovered that all the dynastic changes in China were more or less related to peasant uprisings. The first reason is that China is a major agricultural country. As tenant farmers collect more and more rent for their farmland, farmers' income will decrease, leading to a gradual differentiation in social income. Prolonged peace also means that the rules of the game remain unchanged, and differentiation will only intensify. Differentiation is actually structural distortion, which will eventually lead to economic slowdown to negative growth, ultimately triggering war.</p><p>After that, we will conduct top-down research, exploring various industries, and then exploring how individual choices are influenced by these macro and meso-level factors.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Finally, what is your assessment of fiscal and monetary policies for the foreseeable future?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>I think the budget will still be a bit tight. Why? On the one hand, the macro leverage ratio is already too high, so government departments need to reduce leverage because if we want to maintain long-term economic stability, fiscal expenditure must be steady and sustainable.</p><p>Therefore, in the coming years, given the downward trend in economic growth, monetary policy will need to be relatively loose, especially when fiscal policy is not too proactive. If fiscal policy is tight and monetary policy is also tight, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of stabilizing growth. Therefore, when fiscal policy is \"tight,\" monetary policy can be appropriately loosened.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Xunlei: Where are the structural opportunities in the era of differentiation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Xunlei: Where are the structural opportunities in the era of differentiation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 13:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Buying things you can't buy yourself: In 2020, not only \"core assets\" became famous, but also \"K-shaped recovery\" became popular.</p><p>Typically, after a crisis, the economic recovery trend can be divided into U-shaped, V-shaped, and L-shaped. These technical economic terms are often discussed in small circles, but the \"K-shaped recovery\" unexpectedly went viral during the pandemic.</p><p>Compared to cold academic explanations, this time the public truly felt the divide between the two forces, upward and downward. The wealthy lined up in long queues at luxury stores, housing prices in first-tier cities repeatedly hit new highs, while the lower classes faced wages that could not keep up with inflation, and the year-on-year increase in rents nationwide even turned negative at one point.</p><p>The truth behind the \"K-shaped recovery\" is actually \"differentiation\".</p><p>In an era characterized by a stock-based economy, \"differentiation\" is inevitable. When the times and environment have quietly changed, opportunities are not just waiting for them to arrive. Only those who adjust their direction according to the evolution of development thinking can truly seize them.</p><p>Where exactly are the investment opportunities in this era of differentiation? Regarding this issue, we are fortunate to work with<b>Li, Chief Economist of China and Thailand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a></b>Let's start a conversation. Investment logic in an era of differentiation is vividly distilled into... in Li Xunlei's new book.<b>\"The Power of Trends\"</b>The book uses a top-down deductive approach to predict various market trends, from macroeconomic policies to micro-investments.</p><p><b>As early as 2006, Li Xunlei proposed \"buying things you can't afford\".</b>Against the backdrop of rapid economic growth and a significant increase in the scale of the manufacturing industry, the era of a shortage economy was over, but...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>Apart from durable consumer goods such as color TVs, refrigerators, and washing machines, the family has almost no assets, and the number of tradable stocks nationwide is only over 3 trillion yuan in market value.</p><p><b>In other words, there is a surplus of goods, but assets are still in short supply. This means that people will rush to buy assets in the future, just as they did a decade ago to buy durable consumer goods.</b>Those who understand leverage in opportunities cannot simply explain it with \"good luck\"; there is actually a solid macroeconomic logic behind it.</p><p>Among many macroeconomic researchers, some viewpoints are either too profound and obscure, or too superficial and lack logical support. Having written prolifically for decades, Li Xunlei is undoubtedly one of the few people who can truly explain complex concepts in a simple and easy-to-understand way. The seemingly simple idea of \"buying things you can't afford\" encompasses profound insights into the macroeconomy.</p><p>Today, China's economy has evolved from a shortage to a surplus of goods, capital, and money. Against the backdrop of these three major surpluses, Li Xunlei...<b>Starting in 2018, I proposed to \"buy things I can't buy myself\".</b>。 So what is \"something you can't buy\"? How to invest in \"things you can't buy\"? How to find suitable investment opportunities in an era of differentiation? We tried to find some answers in this interview.</p><p>The following is the main text of the interview.</p><p><b>01 Where are the investment opportunities in this era of differentiation?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Regarding the theme of \"Trend Investing in an Era of Differentiation\", the \"era of existing economy\" and \"differentiation\" are closely related. How do you judge the arrival of the \"era of existing economy\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>To be precise, I am not referring to the \"era of existing economy\", but to the \"era dominated by existing economy\". There is a difference between the two.<b>China's GDP growth rate is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth rate of around 5%, while zero growth like Japan's is the real stock economy. Therefore, at present, it is only said that China has the characteristics of a stock economy.</b></p><p>The emergence of these characteristics has made many people uncomfortable. For example, \"lying flat\" is actually a characteristic of the existing economy. It makes people feel that their hard work is useless and that starting a business is prone to failure. This will lead to a 20/20 split.</p><p>In the past, Chinese corporate investment was very enthusiastic, and private investment grew by about 30% before 2013. Now, the growth rate of private investment is getting lower and lower, and less investment means fewer opportunities. The characteristic of private enterprise investment is that it is pro-cyclical; it contracts when the cycle is downward and expands only when the cycle is upward.</p><p>Therefore, at a discussion in 2017, I proposed the concept of \"stock economy\".<b>China has now entered a stage dominated by a stock economy, which is characterized by the strong getting stronger, the survival of the fittest, and the rise and fall of one another. This is the so-called \"differentiation\".</b>The past \"incremental economy\" was characterized by \"chickens and dogs ascending to heaven\" and \"small is beautiful.\" In the past, we often said \"ordinary people rise again.\" Although this word is not elegant, it reflects that it was an era with more opportunities.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Against the backdrop of polarization, what opportunities do you think ordinary people have?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>There are still opportunities, mainly structural ones. From a historical perspective, China entered the early 21st century...<b>Commodity surplus</b>In those days, assets were relatively scarce, so in 2006 I proposed to buy things I couldn't afford, namely investing and leveraging. However, as everyone increased their asset allocation ratios, more than a decade later, the following...<b>Excess total assets</b>The era.</p><p>In an era of commodity surplus and asset surplus, in order to stimulate the economy, government authorities will inevitably issue excessive money, and the result of excessive money issuance is, of course,<b>Excess money supply</b>So right now it is<b>An era of triple oversupply</b>。</p><p><b>However, the so-called surplus refers to \"total surplus\" and \"structural shortage\" still exists. Therefore, for ordinary individuals, the opportunities that can be seized against the backdrop of fewer total opportunities are called \"structural opportunities\" because this type of opportunity exists for a long time.</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>What is the main logic behind your previous emphasis that \"future investment opportunities will mainly be on the supply side\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>The main logic is that China currently has insufficient effective demand, and with a surplus of money, there is a structural shortage. Therefore, the supply-side investment opportunities I am talking about are actually structural opportunities. From an investment perspective, as long as an area of \"structural shortage\" is discovered, it is an opportunity to make a profit.</p><p><b>In the future, what matters more is what you provide.</b>For example, the supply of rice has a limited total demand; Or when pork prices rise, people feel that pig farming is profitable, so they start raising pigs, increasing supply and causing pork prices to fall. Moreover, in the long run, with the process of consumption upgrading in China, pork consumption is expected to decline. This is partly because after income increases and consumption upgrades, consumption of high-priced meats such as beef will increase. On the other hand, China accounts for 18% of the world's population, but consumes 50% of the world's pork, which is expected to decline in the future.</p><p>For example, Dutch lithography refuses to sell to China, which is a shortage of \"core technologies\"; For example, there is also a shortage of some high-end products from national brands, meaning that demand continues to rise and they are not sensitive to prices, but the supply is still insufficient.</p><p><b>reporter</b>During the current period of slowdown and shift in the domestic economy, in which industries do you think structural investment opportunities will emerge?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>In fact, in every industry, as long as so-called \"high-end demand\" and \"effective demand\" can be found, there are opportunities. Even the steel industry is not entirely without opportunities, such as \"special steel\". However, looking at \"crude steel\" alone, there is indeed overcapacity and total volume.</p><p>In addition, although we say that domestic \"effective demand\" is insufficient, demand in some areas is still quite sufficient. For example, the biopharmaceutical industry will have relatively high growth potential in the future, especially the drugs they have developed to treat and alleviate cardiovascular diseases or fight cancer. In the future, as people's wealth increases, they all hope to extend their lifespan, because no matter how much money they earn, it will be difficult to buy the elixir of longevity. By the same logic, since we all believe that \"youth\" is priceless, when many people want to preserve their youth, the demand in the medical aesthetics industry emerges.</p><p><b>02 How should we view real estate, gold, and Bitcoin?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Following the release of the data from the Seventh National Population Census, do you believe that population aging and regional structural imbalances are two trends that require vigilance? Under these two trends, how do you view the future real estate market?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>There is an overall surplus, and with the aging population, the demand for real estate will also decrease. Because of the aging population, people are more willing to invest their money in places with shorter terms, such as fixed income, equity assets, or places with good liquidity, and are less willing to invest in real estate. In addition, an aging population will lead to a decrease in our willingness to invest and an increase in our willingness to consume.</p><p>But structural opportunities remain,<b>The seventh national census shows that the population is still concentrating in first- and second-tier cities. This trend has not changed, and these cities will continue to see net population inflows in the future. Therefore, it is still possible to invest in real estate in these large cities. However, the problem is that the current valuations are too high, which is a characteristic of Chinese housing prices.</b></p><p>This is related to Chinese cultural factors. Chinese people like to invest, manage finances, and buy property, while Westerners do not have such a great demand in this area. This is closely related to our East Asian cultural background.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Do you think recent inflation trends have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy? Is inflation a short-term or long-term problem? What are your thoughts on gold this year?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>The Federal Reserve's primary goal is employment, not inflation. If non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, the Fed's tightening of monetary policy will likely be delayed. However, I believe the Fed's \"taper\" move is possible at the end of the third or fourth quarter.</p><p>In my view, the current inflation is most likely a short- to medium-term phenomenon that may last for more than a year. This inflation may be a \"catch-up\" to the deflation caused by excessive money supply in the past, and it may also be an emotional catharsis. Looking at the level of influence on the US financial market after the Federal Reserve eased monetary policy, it should not be high, because the US has a relatively weak ability to create money through commercial banks. Chinese commercial banks have a stronger motivation to create money, which is why the People's Bank of China does not expand its balance sheet much and does not need to release as much liquidity as the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As for gold, its price depends on the level of real interest rates in the short term. If real interest rates fall, it will be beneficial for gold. In the long run, it depends on the extent of excessive money supply. Gold prices rose significantly in 2018-20, and a slight adjustment this year is normal, but the future outlook remains promising.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Besides gold, Bitcoin also performed remarkably well during last year's \"easing\" market. What are your thoughts on the future investment value of Bitcoin?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei: Bitcoin is highly volatile, which makes it difficult for it to become a currency.</b>Therefore, it cannot be used for transaction settlement. But it has been able to stand out from so many virtual currencies, and its status is undeniable.<b>In the future, it may be a limited investment product, more like an asset.</b></p><p><b>03 Why look at the macro perspective?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>Many individual investors and some institutional investors do not pay much attention to the macro economy. What do you think is the significance of the macro economy for investment?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>Macroeconomic research is a typical top-down research that allows you to judge the impact of the macroeconomic environment on yourself through fiscal and monetary policies. The reason why many institutions do not have macro researchers is mainly because macro services are very open, reports are relatively easy to obtain, and the demand for macro researchers is relatively reduced.</p><p>However, I think the macro picture cannot simply be limited to commenting on CPI and PPI, or commenting on the amount of investment in real estate development, etc. I think this kind of macro picture is too small. In my mind, macroeconomic research should have both historical depth and practical applicability and operability in reality.</p><p>However, if the macroeconomic situation is not done properly, it is creating noise for the market and is only interpreting policies and conducting technical analysis of high-frequency data. I would prefer to see macroeconomic research guide policy based on its results, rather than following policy.<b>I often say that we should use a telescope to look at the macro, not a microscope. A microscope only sees the smallest details, but the macro is a very grand and top-down research model that focuses more on \"top-level architectural design\".</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>In the chain of \"macro-meso-micro\", how should we understand the position and role of the macro?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>I think the first thing to do is to point out the general direction. We often pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve's interest rates will go up or down, which will affect the direction of inflation expectations. However, from a longer-term perspective, GDP growth has continued to decline. This is what makes my macro analysis different.<b>Focusing on the major cycle of social development</b>。</p><p>To give another example, when I was studying history, I discovered that all the dynastic changes in China were more or less related to peasant uprisings. The first reason is that China is a major agricultural country. As tenant farmers collect more and more rent for their farmland, farmers' income will decrease, leading to a gradual differentiation in social income. Prolonged peace also means that the rules of the game remain unchanged, and differentiation will only intensify. Differentiation is actually structural distortion, which will eventually lead to economic slowdown to negative growth, ultimately triggering war.</p><p>After that, we will conduct top-down research, exploring various industries, and then exploring how individual choices are influenced by these macro and meso-level factors.</p><p><b>reporter</b>Finally, what is your assessment of fiscal and monetary policies for the foreseeable future?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>I think the budget will still be a bit tight. Why? On the one hand, the macro leverage ratio is already too high, so government departments need to reduce leverage because if we want to maintain long-term economic stability, fiscal expenditure must be steady and sustainable.</p><p>Therefore, in the coming years, given the downward trend in economic growth, monetary policy will need to be relatively loose, especially when fiscal policy is not too proactive. If fiscal policy is tight and monetary policy is also tight, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of stabilizing growth. Therefore, when fiscal policy is \"tight,\" monetary policy can be appropriately loosened.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134186261","content_text":"买自己买不到的东西\n\n2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。\n通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“K型复苏”却意外了出圈。\n比起学术层面冰冷的解释，这一回大众切实感受到了向上与向下的两股力量的分野。富人在奢侈品店排起长队，一线城市房价屡创新高，而底层面临着工资跑不赢通胀，全国房租同比涨幅甚至一度转负。\n“K型复苏”背后的真相，其实就是“分化”。\n在一个以存量经济为特征的时代里，“分化”已是不可避免。当身处时代环境已经悄然发生改变，机会并不是坐等到来，顺着发展思路演进而调整自己出击方向的人，才能真正握住机会。\n分化时代下的投资机会到底在哪里？针对此问题，我们有幸与中泰首席经济学家李迅雷展开一场对话。分化时代里的投资逻辑，在李迅雷的新书中被形象地提炼为“趋势的力量”，书中基于自上而下的演绎方法，从宏观政策至微观投资，来预见市场的各种趋势。\n早在2006年，李迅雷就提出了“买自己买不起的东西”。在当时的背景下，经济的高速增长，制造业的规模大幅增加，短缺经济时代已经过去，但老百姓家里配置的除了彩电、冰箱、洗衣机等耐用消费品之外，几乎没有什么资产，全国可流通的股票数量也就3万多亿元市值。\n也就是说，商品已经过剩，但资产仍然短缺。这意味着未来人们会抢购资产，像十年前抢购耐用消费品一样。看懂机会上杠杆的人，并不是一句“运气好”就解释过去了，背后其实有着坚实的宏观逻辑支撑。\n在诸多宏观经济研究人士中，一些观点不是过于深奥晦涩，就是过分浅显缺乏逻辑支撑。几十年来笔耕不辍，李迅雷无疑是那少部分能真正做到深入浅出的人。一句“买自己买不起的东西”，看似简单的观点背后囊括着对宏观经济深刻的洞见。\n如今，中国经济从短缺演化到如今商品过剩、资本过剩、货币过剩，在“三大过剩”的背景下，李迅雷在2018年开始提出要“买自己买不到的东西”。那什么是“买不到的东西”？怎么投资“买不到的东西”？在分化时代里如何找到合适的投资机会？我们试图在本次访谈中找到一些答案。\n以下是访谈的正文内容。\n01 分化时代下的投资机会在哪里？\n记者：对于“分化时代下的趋势投资”主题，“存量经济时代”与“分化”二者紧密关联，请问您是如何做出“存量经济时代”到来的判断？\n李迅雷：准确讲，我所指的并不是“存量经济时代”，而是“存量经济主导的时代”，两者是有差别的。中国GDP增速预计还会保持5%左右的中速增长，而像日本这样的零增长才是真正的存量经济，所以目前只是说中国出现了存量经济的特征。\n而这些特征的出现已经使得很多人不习惯，比如“躺平”其实就是一个存量经济特征，觉得自己辛苦半天也没用，创业也容易失败，这里面就会呈现出一种二八分化现象。\n过去，中国的企业投资都很起劲，民间投资在2013年前都有30%左右的增长，现在民营投资增速越来越低，投资少就意味着机会也少。而民营企业投资的特点又是顺周期，周期向下时它萎缩，周期上升时它才扩张。\n因此，2017年我在一次讨论会上，就提出“存量经济”的概念，中国目前已步入到存量经济主导的阶段，这个阶段的特色就是强者恒强、优胜劣汰、此消彼长，这就是所谓的“分化”。过去的“增量经济”下的特征是“鸡犬升天”，“小的就是美的”，过去我们也常说“屌丝逆袭”，虽然这个词汇不雅，但却反映出那是一个机会比较多的时代。\n记者：分化背景下，您觉得普通人有什么机会？\n李迅雷：机会还是有的，主要是结构性机会。从历史演进来看，中国21世纪初进入商品过剩时代，当时的资产还是相对稀缺，所以2006年时我提出要买自己买不起的东西，即投资加杠杆。但是，当大家纷纷加大资产配置比例，过了十余年后，随之而来就是资产总量过剩的时代。\n在商品过剩、资产过剩的时代，为了拉动经济，政府当局肯定会超发货币，超发货币的结果当然就是货币总量过剩，所以眼下是一个三重过剩叠加的时代。\n但所谓的过剩指的是“总量过剩”，“结构性短缺”依然存在，因此对普通个体而言，在总量机会变少的背景下，可以把握的机会叫作“结构性机会”，因为这一类机会是长期存在的。\n记者：您之前强调“今后投资机会主要在供给侧”，背后的主要逻辑是什么？\n李迅雷：主要逻辑在于，中国目前存在有效需求不足的情况，而在货币过剩的情况下，又存在着结构性短缺。因此，我所谈的供给侧投资机会，其实也就是结构性机会，从投资角度来看，只要发现“结构性短缺”领域，便是获利的机会。\n未来，更为重要的是，你所供给的是什么东西。比如大米的供给，它的需求总量是有限的；或是猪价上涨，大家就觉得说养猪收入不错，于是纷纷养猪，供给增加，猪价下跌。而且从长远来看，伴随中国消费升级的进程，猪肉消费预期会下降，这一方面是由于收入提高后，消费升级，对牛肉等高价肉的消费会提升；另一方面，中国人口占全球18%，却要消费全球50%的猪肉，未来预计会有所下降。\n比如荷兰的光刻机就是不卖给中国，这就属于“核心技术”的短缺；再比如就是有些民族品牌类的高端商品，也存在短缺现象，即需求持续向上，对价格不敏感，但供给面依然不足。\n记者：在当前国内经济减速换挡的时期，您认为结构性的投资机会将会在哪些行业中出现？\n李迅雷：其实每个行业中，只要能找到所谓的“高端需求”、“有效需求”，就都是有机会的，就连钢铁业也并非完全没有机会，比如说“特种钢”。不过单就“粗钢”来看，的确是产能和总量都过剩了。\n另外，虽然我们说国内“有效需求”不足，但在某些领域的需求还是很充分的。比如生物医药行业，未来成长性就会比较高，特别是他们研发的一些治疗缓解心血管疾病或是抗癌的药物。未来随着人们的财富增多，都希望自己的寿命可以延长，因为钱赚得再多，也很难买到延年益寿的长生不老药。相同逻辑下，由于我们都认为“青春”是无价的，当有很多人想留住青春时，医美行业的需求便随之出现了。\n02 如何看地产、黄金、比特币？\n记者：在第七次人口普查数据出来以后，您认为人口老龄化和区域结构性失衡两个趋势需要警惕，在这两个趋势下，您如何看待未来房地产市场？\n李迅雷：总量上是存在过剩的，加之人口老龄化，对房地产需求也会下降。因为老龄化后，大家更愿意把钱投到一些期限较短的地方，比如说固定收益、权益类资产，或是变现流动性好的地方，不太愿意投房地产。另外，人口的老龄化也会导致我们的投资意愿下降，消费意愿增强。\n但结构性机会仍然存在，从第七次人口普查来看，人口还是在往一线城市、二线城市集中，这个趋势没有变化，未来这些城市人口依然会是净流入，因此还是可以布局这些大城市的房地产，但问题就是当前估值太高，这是中国房价的一个特点。\n这其中关联着中国文化因素，中国人喜欢投资、理财、置产，而西方人在这方面需求就没有那么大，这跟我们东亚的文化背景是很有关系的。\n记者：您认为近期通胀走势对美联储的货币政策约束大吗？通胀是短期困境还是长期困境？对今年的黄金怎么看？\n李迅雷：美联储的主要目标是就业而非通胀，如果非农就业不达预期，那么美联储的收紧货币的时间还是会延后的，但我认为“taper”的动作美联储在第三季度末或四季度是有可能做的。\n就我的观点而论，当前的通胀大概率是一个中短期现象，持续时间或超过一年，这种通胀或许是对过去货币超发下的通缩是一种“补涨”，同时也是一种情绪上的宣泄。再就美联储放水后对美国金融市场的水位来看，应该也不算高，因为美国通过商业银行来创造货币的能力比较弱；中国商业银行创造货币的动机反而比较强，这也是为什么中国央行不怎么扩表，可以不需要像美联储那样，释放那么多流动性。\n至于黄金，黄金价格短期取决于实际利率的水平，若实际利率往下走的话，对于黄金是有利的。长期则取决于货币超发的程度，黄金在2018-20年涨了不少，今年调整一下也是正常的，但未来前景依然看好。\n记者：除了黄金之外，比特币在去年的“放水”行情下也有惊人的表现，那您对比特币后续的投资价值怎么看？\n李迅雷：比特币波动性比较大，这一特点使其很难成为一种货币，因此无法用在交易结算上。但它毕竟能够从这么多虚拟货币中脱颖而出，地位是摆在那里的，以后或许会是一个有限范围的投资品种，更像是一种资产。\n03 为什么要看宏观？\n记者：不少个人投资者以及部分机构投资者，对于宏观的关注度并不高，您认为宏观对于投资的意义是什么？\n李迅雷：宏观研究是一种典型的自上而下的研究，宏观研究可以让你通过财政政策、货币政策来判断大环境对自己的影响。现在之所以很多机构不配宏观研究员，主要是因为宏观服务非常开放，报告取得较为容易，大家对宏观研究员的需求也相对减少。\n但我觉得宏观也不能够简单停留在一些CPI、PPI的点评，或点评一下投房地产开发投资额是多少等等，我觉得这种宏观格局太小。我心目当中的宏观研究，它既要有历史的深度，又可以在现实中有实际的应用性和操作性。\n但如果宏观没做到位，就是在给市场制造噪音，始终只是在解读政策，对高频数据作技术分析。我更希望看到宏观研究从成果能引导政策，而不是跟在政策之后。我也常说，我们看宏观要用望远镜，不要用显微镜去看，显微镜看到的都是细枝末节，但宏观它是一个非常宏大、且自上而下的一种研究模式，它更多关注的是“顶层建筑设计”。\n记者：在“宏观-中观-微观”的链条上，请问该如何理解宏观的位置以及发挥的作用？\n李迅雷：我觉得首先要指明大方向，我们常关注美联储利率是往上还是往下，这会影响通胀预期的方向。但从更加长远的角度看，GDP的增速都是持续往下的。这就是我的宏观分析不同之处，侧重社会发展大周期。\n再举个例子，当我在研究历史时，发现中国历次改朝换代多少都与农民起义有关联性。第一个原因，是因为中国是农业大国，当佃农耕地的地租越收越多时，农民收入就会减少，导致社会收入逐渐分化。而长时间的和平，也意味着游戏规则始终不变，分化只会不断加剧，分化其实就是结构扭曲，结构扭曲最终就会导致经济从减速到负增长，最终触发战争。\n之后自上而下研究，就会往各个行业里面探究，而再往下就是探究个体的选择如何被这些宏观、中观的因素所影响。\n记者：最后请教下，您对财政政策和货币政策就未来一段时间的判断大概是什么样的？\n李迅雷：财政我觉得还是会偏紧一些，为什么呢？一方面是宏观杠杆率已经过高了，故政府部门需要降杠杆，因为我们现在要保持经济的长治久安，财政支出就要细水长流。\n那么，未来几年在经济增速下行的趋势下，货币政策就需要相对宽松，尤其当财政政策不是太积极的时候，货币政策就不能太紧了。如果财政紧的话，货币也紧，则稳增长目标就可能很难实现，所以财政“紧”的情况下，货币可以适度松一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162169255,"gmtCreate":1624043277377,"gmtModify":1703827505060,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162169255","repostId":"1166548417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166548417","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624028501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166548417?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:01","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is it a good time to buy gold at the bottom now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166548417","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"流动性拐点来了\n\n1848年1月，颇有手艺的木匠马歇尔在现今加州首府萨克拉门托北边为他的老板建造锯木厂，在检查锯木厂水道时，看见河床内有一些闪亮的光点，是纯度高达23K的金片。马歇尔发现黄金的消息很快","content":"<p>The turning point in liquidity arrived in January 1848. Marshall, a skilled carpenter, was building a sawmill for his boss north of Sacramento, the capital of present-day California. While inspecting the sawmill waterway, he saw some bright spots in the riverbed, which were gold flakes with a purity of up to 23K. News of Marshall's discovery of gold soon spread to nearby San Francisco.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3086e99a9d8cc5468b5f8d6031329a\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In March 1848, a newspaper report sparked a frenzy, and by June of that year, nearly three-quarters of San Francisco residents had headed to Northern California to prospect for gold, leaving the entire city almost a ghost town. The news then spread from the United States to the world, and the gold rush attracted even more people to join in.</p><p>At the time, then-President Jackson was scrambling to eliminate the effects of the decade-long Great Depression that began in 1837. The emergence of the gold rush led to a surge in gold production in the United States. Between 1851 and 1855, U.S. gold production accounted for 45% of the world's total, gold circulation increased significantly, the financial and securities industry developed rapidly, and the San Francisco Stock Exchange quickly became the second largest stock exchange in the United States after the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>This is the story of the American gold rush, which also stabilized the American economy at that time.</p><p><b>1. Why did it plummet?</b></p><p>Why has gold been so sought after throughout history? Marx, in his \"Critique of Political Economy,\" succinctly revealed the essence: gold and silver are not naturally money, but money is naturally gold and silver.</p><p>In the past two days, due to a highly anticipated meeting, gold, which is naturally a currency, has been in a state of panic.</p><p>Early Thursday morning, after two days of meetings, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision: to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 0%-0.25% range, in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that two rate hike will be achieved by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its economic forecast for 2021 and significantly increased its inflation forecast for this year.</p><p>Following the announcement of the FOMC decision, gold reacted most strongly, with COMEX gold futures plunging 4.7% on the 2nd, hitting a new low since the end of April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f59aaedbd79fabcbebe118ea0bf700\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the Lunar New Year, gold prices rebounded from a low of $1,677 in March to $1,919. The underlying logic supported this was that the continuous easing of monetary policy pushed up global inflation expectations, leading to a decline in real interest rates and supporting the rise in gold prices. Taking the United States as an example, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, the largest year-on-year increase since August 2008.</p><p>However, the logic behind the previous rise in gold prices was significantly undermined after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has somewhat backed down on the issue of the inflation outlook. The original text is as follows: We do not rule out the possibility of continued price increases; The possibility that inflation will persist longer than expected and contribute to rising expectations cannot be ruled out; If we see inflation expectations rise, contrary to our fundamental situation, we will take action to reduce inflation.</p><p>Previously, they had tirelessly reassured the market: don't worry, inflation is temporary. However, last night it was revealed that future inflation may be higher and more persistent than we expected, and that policy preparations are in place for the previous \"misjudgment\".</p><p>Regarding the bond purchase issue, Powell's original words were: If progress continues, a scaling-down plan will be considered at the next meeting. According to the plan, the next meeting is in July. If the economy continues to recover, will tapering also be included?</p><p>The policy meeting also provided a faster pace for rate hike:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f308b03859c0a365f904272d110f9fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve also adjusted the excess reserve rate from 0.1% to 0.15% and the overnight reverse repurchase rate from 0% to 0.05%.</p><p>In short, the Federal Reserve described the monetary policy reversal in an extremely tactful manner and made many cover-ups on the issue, but the market reaction was more realistic, concluding that the Fed's monetary policy was about to reverse. The market anticipates that the dollar has reached a turning point and that real interest rates will rise. This is the underlying logic behind the sharp drop in gold prices.</p><p><b>2. What do you think about the future?</b></p><p>First, let's look at the two main pricing logics behind gold.</p><p>Historically, gold has been used as a hard currency to \"fight inflation\". Inflation, gold rises, deflation, gold falls. Like the stock market, gold is traded based on expectations.</p><p>When the market expects inflation to rise, gold prices will rise. If the final data confirms that inflation is not high or even reasonable, then gold prices will fall back. Furthermore, if the market expects deflation, gold prices will fall. Once deflation is priced in by the market, and there is even a slight expectation of a rebound in inflation, gold prices will be immediately pushed up.</p><p>Another major factor determining the medium- to long-term trend of gold is the nominal interest rate, also known as opportunity cost. When nominal interest rates are low, that is, when opportunity costs are low, gold will rise, and vice versa. This is similar to another pair of seesaws—the stock market and the bond market.</p><p>The combination of two factors means that the real interest rate is the sole logic behind the medium- to long-term trend of absolute gold prices. In the short term, it is necessary to add safe-haven functions, such as unexpected geopolitical events.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f504e3431540948d72e73ffad7dcf821\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here is a formula: real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation.</p><p>When nominal interest rates fall (which is good for gold) and inflation falls faster than the former (which is bad for gold), real interest rates rise relatively, so the combined effect of the two points to a decline in gold.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting sent a clear signal: the inflection point in dollar liquidity expectations has arrived, leading to a rise in expected real interest rates and putting significant pressure on gold prices. In the future, if US inflation continues to rise, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will shift its monetary policy in a way that exceeds expectations. If this evolves accordingly, it means that gold may not have fallen to its full potential yet, and investors who are currently buying on dips should be very cautious.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is it a good time to buy gold at the bottom now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs it a good time to buy gold at the bottom now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The turning point in liquidity arrived in January 1848. Marshall, a skilled carpenter, was building a sawmill for his boss north of Sacramento, the capital of present-day California. While inspecting the sawmill waterway, he saw some bright spots in the riverbed, which were gold flakes with a purity of up to 23K. News of Marshall's discovery of gold soon spread to nearby San Francisco.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3086e99a9d8cc5468b5f8d6031329a\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In March 1848, a newspaper report sparked a frenzy, and by June of that year, nearly three-quarters of San Francisco residents had headed to Northern California to prospect for gold, leaving the entire city almost a ghost town. The news then spread from the United States to the world, and the gold rush attracted even more people to join in.</p><p>At the time, then-President Jackson was scrambling to eliminate the effects of the decade-long Great Depression that began in 1837. The emergence of the gold rush led to a surge in gold production in the United States. Between 1851 and 1855, U.S. gold production accounted for 45% of the world's total, gold circulation increased significantly, the financial and securities industry developed rapidly, and the San Francisco Stock Exchange quickly became the second largest stock exchange in the United States after the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>This is the story of the American gold rush, which also stabilized the American economy at that time.</p><p><b>1. Why did it plummet?</b></p><p>Why has gold been so sought after throughout history? Marx, in his \"Critique of Political Economy,\" succinctly revealed the essence: gold and silver are not naturally money, but money is naturally gold and silver.</p><p>In the past two days, due to a highly anticipated meeting, gold, which is naturally a currency, has been in a state of panic.</p><p>Early Thursday morning, after two days of meetings, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision: to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 0%-0.25% range, in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that two rate hike will be achieved by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its economic forecast for 2021 and significantly increased its inflation forecast for this year.</p><p>Following the announcement of the FOMC decision, gold reacted most strongly, with COMEX gold futures plunging 4.7% on the 2nd, hitting a new low since the end of April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f59aaedbd79fabcbebe118ea0bf700\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the Lunar New Year, gold prices rebounded from a low of $1,677 in March to $1,919. The underlying logic supported this was that the continuous easing of monetary policy pushed up global inflation expectations, leading to a decline in real interest rates and supporting the rise in gold prices. Taking the United States as an example, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, the largest year-on-year increase since August 2008.</p><p>However, the logic behind the previous rise in gold prices was significantly undermined after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has somewhat backed down on the issue of the inflation outlook. The original text is as follows: We do not rule out the possibility of continued price increases; The possibility that inflation will persist longer than expected and contribute to rising expectations cannot be ruled out; If we see inflation expectations rise, contrary to our fundamental situation, we will take action to reduce inflation.</p><p>Previously, they had tirelessly reassured the market: don't worry, inflation is temporary. However, last night it was revealed that future inflation may be higher and more persistent than we expected, and that policy preparations are in place for the previous \"misjudgment\".</p><p>Regarding the bond purchase issue, Powell's original words were: If progress continues, a scaling-down plan will be considered at the next meeting. According to the plan, the next meeting is in July. If the economy continues to recover, will tapering also be included?</p><p>The policy meeting also provided a faster pace for rate hike:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f308b03859c0a365f904272d110f9fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve also adjusted the excess reserve rate from 0.1% to 0.15% and the overnight reverse repurchase rate from 0% to 0.05%.</p><p>In short, the Federal Reserve described the monetary policy reversal in an extremely tactful manner and made many cover-ups on the issue, but the market reaction was more realistic, concluding that the Fed's monetary policy was about to reverse. The market anticipates that the dollar has reached a turning point and that real interest rates will rise. This is the underlying logic behind the sharp drop in gold prices.</p><p><b>2. What do you think about the future?</b></p><p>First, let's look at the two main pricing logics behind gold.</p><p>Historically, gold has been used as a hard currency to \"fight inflation\". Inflation, gold rises, deflation, gold falls. Like the stock market, gold is traded based on expectations.</p><p>When the market expects inflation to rise, gold prices will rise. If the final data confirms that inflation is not high or even reasonable, then gold prices will fall back. Furthermore, if the market expects deflation, gold prices will fall. Once deflation is priced in by the market, and there is even a slight expectation of a rebound in inflation, gold prices will be immediately pushed up.</p><p>Another major factor determining the medium- to long-term trend of gold is the nominal interest rate, also known as opportunity cost. When nominal interest rates are low, that is, when opportunity costs are low, gold will rise, and vice versa. This is similar to another pair of seesaws—the stock market and the bond market.</p><p>The combination of two factors means that the real interest rate is the sole logic behind the medium- to long-term trend of absolute gold prices. In the short term, it is necessary to add safe-haven functions, such as unexpected geopolitical events.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f504e3431540948d72e73ffad7dcf821\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here is a formula: real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation.</p><p>When nominal interest rates fall (which is good for gold) and inflation falls faster than the former (which is bad for gold), real interest rates rise relatively, so the combined effect of the two points to a decline in gold.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting sent a clear signal: the inflection point in dollar liquidity expectations has arrived, leading to a rise in expected real interest rates and putting significant pressure on gold prices. In the future, if US inflation continues to rise, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will shift its monetary policy in a way that exceeds expectations. If this evolves accordingly, it means that gold may not have fallen to its full potential yet, and investors who are currently buying on dips should be very cautious.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166548417","content_text":"流动性拐点来了\n\n1848年1月，颇有手艺的木匠马歇尔在现今加州首府萨克拉门托北边为他的老板建造锯木厂，在检查锯木厂水道时，看见河床内有一些闪亮的光点，是纯度高达23K的金片。马歇尔发现黄金的消息很快泄露，不久传到附近的旧金山。\n\n1848年3月，被一家报纸报道后掀起热潮，到了当年6月，差不多3/4的旧金山居民都奔赴北加州淘金，整个旧金山几乎成为空城。此后，消息又从美国传向世界，淘金热吸引了更多人的加入。\n当时，时任美国总统杰克逊正在为消除始于1837年的十年经济大衰退影响而焦头烂额。淘金热的出现，使得美国的黄金产量开始飙升，1851-1855年间，美国黄金产量达世界总产量的45%，黄金流通量大增，金融证券业快速发展，旧金山证券交易所迅速成为仅次于纽交所的美国第二大证券交易所。\n这就是美国淘金热的故事，也稳定了彼时的美国经济。\n1.缘何暴跌\n为什么黄金从古到今如此受追捧，马克思在《政治经济学批判》中一语道破了本质：金银天然不是货币，但货币天然是金银。\n最近两天，由于一场万众瞩目的会议，天然是货币的黄金风声鹤唳。\n周四凌晨，美联储经过两天的会议之后，公布最新利率决议：维持基准利率在0%-0.25%区间不变，符合预期。美联储点阵图显示，到2023年底将实现两次加息。同时，美联储上调了2021年的经济预期，并大幅上调了今年的通胀预期。\nFOMC决策公布后，反应最为剧烈的就是黄金，COMEX黄金期货2日重挫4.7%，创今年4月底以来的新低。\n\n年后这波黄金从3月份最低点1677美元一路反弹至1919美元，底层逻辑支撑的就是不断放水背景下推升全球通胀预期，导致实际利率下滑，支撑金价上行。以美国为例，5月CPI经季节性调整后同比增长5%，创2008年8月以来最大同比增幅。\n不过，美联储议息会议后，前期黄金上涨的逻辑遭受了不小破坏。\n对于通胀前景问题，美联储有点认怂。原文如下：我们不排除价格继续上涨的可能性；不排除通货膨胀会比预期持续更长时间的可能性，并助长预期上升；如果看到通胀预期上升，与我们的基本情况相反，我们将采取行动降低通胀。\n而在此前不厌其烦的安抚市场：别担心，通胀是暂时的。但昨晚却透露了未来通胀可能会比我们预期的更高更持久，并为此前的“误判”做好政策准备。\n对于购债问题，鲍威尔的原话是：如果进展继续，将在接下来的会议上考虑缩减规模的计划。按照计划，下一次会议是7月，如果经济继续恢复，缩债是不是也要安排上了呢！\n议息会议还给出了更快的加息节奏：\n\n另外，美联储还将超额准备金利率从0.1%调整至0.15%，将隔夜逆回购利率由0%调整至0.05%。\n总之，美联储将货币政策掉头一事说的极其委婉，并对此问题上做了许多遮掩，但市场的反应更为真实，认定美联储的货币政策将要掉头。市场预期美元拐点来了，预期实际利率会上行。这是黄金大幅暴跌的底层逻辑。\n2.未来怎么看？\n首先，我们来看下黄金的两大定价逻辑。\n历来，黄金作为“抗通胀”的硬货币。通胀，黄金上涨，通缩，黄金下跌。黄金同股市一样，均是交易预期。\n当市场预期通胀加大，金价会上行，如果最终数据证实通胀不大甚至合理，那么金价就会回落。再者，市场预期出现通缩，黄金下跌，当被通缩被市场Price in之后，稍有通胀回升预期，黄金会立马被拉涨。\n决定黄金中长期走势的另外一大因素的是名义利率，也就是所谓的机会成本。当名义利率低，即机会成本低的时候，黄金会上涨，反之亦然。这跟另一对跷跷板——股市与债市，异曲同工。\n两个因素综合，即真实利率是绝对黄金价格中长期走势的唯一逻辑。短期逻辑上，需要加上避险功能，比如突发的地缘政治等。\n\n这里有一个公式：真实利率=名义利率-通胀。\n当名义利率下降（利好黄金），通胀较前者下降更快的时候（利空黄金），真实利率相对提升，那么两者合力指向黄金下跌。\n此次美联储议息会议传达出较为明显的信号：美元流动性预期拐点来了，导致预期的实际利率攀升，对黄金价格产生明显施压。未来，美国通胀继续攀升，美联储是有不小概率以超预期的方式转向货币政策，如果按照这个来演化，那么意味着黄金可能还没有跌到位，当前抄底做多的投资者还需非常谨慎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120565670,"gmtCreate":1624328249790,"gmtModify":1703833618913,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120565670","repostId":"1182298025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}