Sinlin personal page - To The Moon

Sinlin

Sinlin

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2023-04-10

Ok

@Tiger_Trade Feed:Day8.Financial term|What is liquidity

2023-01-11

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ will see

2022-12-23

Can trust this guy?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-12-19

👌🏻

In the coming weeks, major global institutions will be selling stocks worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

2022-12-05

OK

Pre-market | Futures for all three major stock indices fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and surged 25%.

2022-12-03

Sell then

JPMorgan Chase: Raised its price target for S&P Global (SPGI.N) from $380 to $410.

2022-10-29

$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$go

2022-10-29

$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$go！

2022-10-29

2022-10-09

$标普500(.SPX)$2600？

2022-09-30

😯

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-09-22

👌🏻

Who understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?

2022-07-18

wow

Morgan Stanley: Even if the US dodges a recession, US stocks may continue to fall.

2022-07-18

👌🏻

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-18

👌🏻

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-17

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-15

nice

Behind the overnight reversal in US stocks: Former officials predict the timing of the Fed's "turnaround"!

2022-06-09

F

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-18

👌🏻

There are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?

2022-05-17

wow

Bank of America Securities: Nio-SW (9866.HK) valuation attractive, target price raised to HK$202

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Illiquid assets, we call them fixed assets, or real assets, like houses.Second, look at market liquidity.The liquidity of the market depends on the amount of money versus the amount of assets.The liquidity of assets and the liquidity of markets will affect the liquidity of institutions. Institutional liquidity refers to the flow of funds in and out of institutions.Take the bank as an example. The entry of bank funds is the receipt of deposits, and the outflow of funds is the lending bus","text":"Liquidity is a very important concept, including asset liquidity, market liquidity, institutional liquidity and economic liquidity.First of all, the liquidity of an asset is the speed and ability of an asset to turn into cash. The most liquid asset is cash, which is stable, convenient and widely applicable. Illiquid assets, we call them fixed assets, or real assets, like houses.Second, look at market liquidity.The liquidity of the market depends on the amount of money versus the amount of assets.The liquidity of assets and the liquidity of markets will affect the liquidity of institutions. Institutional liquidity refers to the flow of funds in and out of institutions.Take the bank as an example. The entry of bank funds is the receipt of deposits, and the outflow of funds is the lending bus","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29f164b8be32f781d459dfe11010151e","width":"1920","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58c45e906a98d26800b86863b2b26524","width":"828","height":"540"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942074863","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951826504,"gmtCreate":1673451869709,"gmtModify":1676538839366,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will see","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will see","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ will see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951826504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922271391,"gmtCreate":1671787403313,"gmtModify":1676538593526,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can trust this guy?","listText":"Can trust this guy?","text":"Can trust this guy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922271391","repostId":"1166526347","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926026197,"gmtCreate":1671425027219,"gmtModify":1676538534320,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926026197","repostId":"1174963451","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174963451","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671341144,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174963451?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-18 13:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"In the coming weeks, major global institutions will be selling stocks worth hundreds of billions of dollars.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174963451","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大型基金经理可能会被迫放弃此前的看涨姿态。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>The sell-off in U.S. stocks intensified like a snowball after Powell made it clear on Wednesday that policymakers would continue to aggressively tighten policy, risking a recession. By Friday, U.S. stock indices had fallen for three consecutive days, with the S&P 500 falling to 3,852.36 points.</p><p>Previously, Nomura's model showed that if the S&P 500 closes below 3933 points, large fund managers may be forced to abandon their previous bullish stance, with a probability of shorting as high as 83%. With the S&P 500 down more than 2% in a single day, quantitative funds may need to sell $30 billion in global stock futures.</p><p>According to the latest media reports,<b>The world's largest fund manager will sell up to $100 billion in stocks in the final weeks of this year.</b>Behind this, the recent rebound in US stocks has pushed up their valuations relative to other asset classes, forcing fund managers with strict allocation authorizations to sell stocks to achieve their goals.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase and institutional financial services platform StoneX Group said bonds could benefit from stock sales by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their fixed-income holdings.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase estimates that<b>By the end of December, sovereign wealth funds could sell about $29 billion in stocks, while U.S. fixed-income pension plans need to shift up to $70 billion from stocks to bonds to meet their long-term holding targets.</b></p><p>As the backbone of the investment community, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds typically rebalance their market exposure every quarter to achieve a 60% equity and 40% bond portfolio.</p><p>Vincent Deluard, macro strategist at StoneX, said:</p><p>“The recent stock market correction and bond market rebound are consistent with the rebalancing assumption.” “Investors have had to sell stocks and buy bonds to return to their targets. It makes sense for this to continue until the end of the year.” He expects that some rebalancing has already occurred this week.</p><p>After the S&P 500 fell about 6% from its November high, analysts expect this to exacerbate an automatic forced sell-off of about $30 billion by quantitative funds.</p><p>According to JPMorgan Chase's calculations<b>Japan's $1.6 trillion GPIF (the world's largest pension fund) will have to sell $17 billion in shares to restore its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian oil fund may shift $12 billion from stocks to bonds.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the coming weeks, major global institutions will be selling stocks worth hundreds of billions of dollars.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the coming weeks, major global institutions will be selling stocks worth hundreds of billions of dollars.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-18 13:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>The sell-off in U.S. stocks intensified like a snowball after Powell made it clear on Wednesday that policymakers would continue to aggressively tighten policy, risking a recession. By Friday, U.S. stock indices had fallen for three consecutive days, with the S&P 500 falling to 3,852.36 points.</p><p>Previously, Nomura's model showed that if the S&P 500 closes below 3933 points, large fund managers may be forced to abandon their previous bullish stance, with a probability of shorting as high as 83%. With the S&P 500 down more than 2% in a single day, quantitative funds may need to sell $30 billion in global stock futures.</p><p>According to the latest media reports,<b>The world's largest fund manager will sell up to $100 billion in stocks in the final weeks of this year.</b>Behind this, the recent rebound in US stocks has pushed up their valuations relative to other asset classes, forcing fund managers with strict allocation authorizations to sell stocks to achieve their goals.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase and institutional financial services platform StoneX Group said bonds could benefit from stock sales by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their fixed-income holdings.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase estimates that<b>By the end of December, sovereign wealth funds could sell about $29 billion in stocks, while U.S. fixed-income pension plans need to shift up to $70 billion from stocks to bonds to meet their long-term holding targets.</b></p><p>As the backbone of the investment community, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds typically rebalance their market exposure every quarter to achieve a 60% equity and 40% bond portfolio.</p><p>Vincent Deluard, macro strategist at StoneX, said:</p><p>“The recent stock market correction and bond market rebound are consistent with the rebalancing assumption.” “Investors have had to sell stocks and buy bonds to return to their targets. It makes sense for this to continue until the end of the year.” He expects that some rebalancing has already occurred this week.</p><p>After the S&P 500 fell about 6% from its November high, analysts expect this to exacerbate an automatic forced sell-off of about $30 billion by quantitative funds.</p><p>According to JPMorgan Chase's calculations<b>Japan's $1.6 trillion GPIF (the world's largest pension fund) will have to sell $17 billion in shares to restore its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian oil fund may shift $12 billion from stocks to bonds.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677736\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677736","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174963451","content_text":"作者：王眉自鲍威尔周三明确表示政策制定者将冒着衰退的风险继续积极收紧政策后，美股的抛售就像滚雪球一样加剧，截至周五，美股指三连阴，标普500指数跌至3852.36点。此前野村的模型显示，如果标普500收于3933点以下，大型基金经理可能会被迫放弃此前的看涨姿态，做空的概率高达83%。在标普500单日下跌超过2%的情况下，量化基金可能需要抛售300亿美元的全球股票期货。而媒体最新称，全球最大的基金经理将在今年的最后几周抛售高达1000亿美元的股票。这背后，美股最近的反弹推高了其相对于其他资产类别的估值，迫使有严格配置授权的基金经理出售股票以实现目标。摩根大通和机构级金融服务平台StoneX集团称，债券可能是主权财富基金、养老金和平衡型共同基金抛售股票的受益者，这些基金希望补充其固定收益资产的持仓量。摩根大通估计，到12月结束时，主权财富基金可能会抛售约290亿美元的股票，而美国的固定收益养老金计划需要将至多700亿美元的资金从股票转向债券，以实现其长期持仓目标。作为投资界的中坚力量，养老金和主权财富基金通常每个季度都会重新平衡其市场敞口，以实现60%的股票和40%的债券组合。StoneX宏观策略师 Vincent Deluard表示：“近期股市回调和债市反弹符合再平衡假设。”“投资者不得不卖出股票，购买债券，以回到目标。这种情况持续到今年年底是说得通的。”他预计，部分再平衡已在本周发生。在标普500从11月的高点下跌约6%之后，分析师预计，这将加剧量化基金约300亿美元的自动强制抛售。根据摩根大通的计算，日本1.6万亿美元的GPIF（全球最大的养老基金）将不得不出售170亿美元的股票，以恢复其目标资产配置。规模1.3万亿美元的挪威石油基金可能会将120亿美元从股票转向债券。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967981900,"gmtCreate":1670249065100,"gmtModify":1676538328938,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967981900","repostId":"1170885543","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170885543","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670244163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170885543?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 20:42","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | Futures for all three major stock indices fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and surged 25%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170885543","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月5日，美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.47%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.43%，标普500指数期货跌0.53%。盘前行情热门中概股盘前走强，哔哩哔哩涨近16%，小鹏汽车涨近1","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On December 5, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.47%, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures were down 0.53%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2161cab0a418516d0bcdd5d22d484a\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-market price</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks rallied in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Up nearly 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose more than 4%;</p><p>China-related ETFs surged in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWEB\">Double the long position in the Shanghai and Shenzhen China Internet Stock ETF - Direxion</a>Up more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">Triple Long FTSE China ETF - Direxion</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">China Overseas Internet ETF - KraneShares</a>Rising over 4%, the $China Large-Cap ETF-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>(FXI) $ rose nearly 2%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The stock fell more than 5% to $184.83 in pre-market trading after media outlets, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported on Monday that Tesla planned to cut Model Y production at its Shanghai factory in December by more than 20% compared to November.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>The stock rose more than 5% in pre-market trading after the company announced positive antibody persistence data 12 months after receiving a single dose of its chikungunya vaccine candidate VLA1553.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IOVA\">Iovance Biotherapeutics</a>The stock rose more than 25% in pre-market trading after data showed that on December 2, company director Rothbaum Wayne P net bought 10 million shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The stock rose more than 2% in pre-market trading after reports circulated that the Saudi Crown Prince would invest approximately $500 million in Credit Suisse's investment banking division.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Most major European stock indices declined, with Germany's DAX 30 down 0.6% as of press time.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 0.2%, while the French CAC40 fell 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48e1a91227f3a262079e445d7ad819\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures continued to rise. As of press time, WTI crude oil was up 2.48% at $81.96 per barrel. Brent crude rose 2.45% to $87.67 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216cdee1000faeea06d8756a7f8c3d50\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"831\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd6cf8ef98e1c740d97a8ca688110c8\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell, down 0.12% at $1,807.5 per ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e789dfa2f7f080dc114fefa80bd8007f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | Futures for all three major stock indices fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and surged 25%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | Futures for all three major stock indices fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and surged 25%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-05 20:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On December 5, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.47%, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures were down 0.53%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2161cab0a418516d0bcdd5d22d484a\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-market price</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks rallied in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Up nearly 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose more than 4%;</p><p>China-related ETFs surged in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWEB\">Double the long position in the Shanghai and Shenzhen China Internet Stock ETF - Direxion</a>Up more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">Triple Long FTSE China ETF - Direxion</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">China Overseas Internet ETF - KraneShares</a>Rising over 4%, the $China Large-Cap ETF-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>(FXI) $ rose nearly 2%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The stock fell more than 5% to $184.83 in pre-market trading after media outlets, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported on Monday that Tesla planned to cut Model Y production at its Shanghai factory in December by more than 20% compared to November.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>The stock rose more than 5% in pre-market trading after the company announced positive antibody persistence data 12 months after receiving a single dose of its chikungunya vaccine candidate VLA1553.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IOVA\">Iovance Biotherapeutics</a>The stock rose more than 25% in pre-market trading after data showed that on December 2, company director Rothbaum Wayne P net bought 10 million shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The stock rose more than 2% in pre-market trading after reports circulated that the Saudi Crown Prince would invest approximately $500 million in Credit Suisse's investment banking division.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Most major European stock indices declined, with Germany's DAX 30 down 0.6% as of press time.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 0.2%, while the French CAC40 fell 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48e1a91227f3a262079e445d7ad819\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures continued to rise. As of press time, WTI crude oil was up 2.48% at $81.96 per barrel. Brent crude rose 2.45% to $87.67 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216cdee1000faeea06d8756a7f8c3d50\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"831\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd6cf8ef98e1c740d97a8ca688110c8\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell, down 0.12% at $1,807.5 per ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e789dfa2f7f080dc114fefa80bd8007f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170885543","content_text":"12月5日，美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.47%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.43%，标普500指数期货跌0.53%。盘前行情热门中概股盘前走强，哔哩哔哩涨近16%，小鹏汽车涨近13%，蔚来涨超6%，理想汽车涨超5%，阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东涨超4%；中国相关ETF盘前大涨，两倍做多沪深中国互联网股票ETFETF-Direxion涨超9%，三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion涨超5%，中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares涨超4%，$中国大盘股ETF-iShares(FXI)$涨近2%；特斯拉盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%；Valneva盘前涨超5%，公司宣布在接种单剂基孔肯雅热候选疫苗VLA1553 12个月后，抗体持久性数据呈阳性；Iovance Biotherapeutics盘前涨超25%，资料显示，该股在12月2日获公司董事Rothbaum Wayne P净买入1000万股；瑞士信贷盘前涨超2%，传沙特王储将向瑞信投行部门投资约5亿美元。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指多数走低，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.6%，英国富时100涨0.2%，法国CAC40跌0.6%。原油原油期货持续走高，截止发稿，WTI原油涨2.48%，报81.96美元/桶；布伦特原油涨2.45%，报87.67美元/桶。黄金黄金期货走低，截止发稿，跌0.12%，报1807.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964077408,"gmtCreate":1670042610604,"gmtModify":1676538294664,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sell then","listText":"Sell then","text":"Sell then","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964077408","repostId":"2288043967","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2288043967","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669996089,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288043967?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 23:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan Chase: Raised its price target for S&P Global (SPGI.N) from $380 to $410.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288043967","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"摩根大通：将标普全球(SPGI.N)目标价从380美元上调至410美元。","content":"<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>: will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>(SPGI.N) price target raised from $380 to $410.</body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Chase: Raised its price target for S&P Global (SPGI.N) from $380 to $410.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase: Raised its price target for S&P Global (SPGI.N) from $380 to $410.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">媒体滚动</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 23:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>: will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>(SPGI.N) price target raised from $380 to $410.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6855902.shtml\">媒体滚动</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPGI":"标普全球"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6855902.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288043967","content_text":"摩根大通：将标普全球(SPGI.N)目标价从380美元上调至410美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPGI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982019949,"gmtCreate":1667041042282,"gmtModify":1676537853341,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BSL.SI\">$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$</a>go！","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BSL.SI\">$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$</a>go！","text":"$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$go！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982010783","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982010444,"gmtCreate":1667040889488,"gmtModify":1676537853324,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982010444","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914672471,"gmtCreate":1665280962993,"gmtModify":1676537581163,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$2600？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914672471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916145120,"gmtCreate":1664544900460,"gmtModify":1676537474907,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😯","listText":"😯","text":"😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916145120","repostId":"1104601460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919548360,"gmtCreate":1663827770950,"gmtModify":1676537345461,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919548360","repostId":"1171146521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171146521","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1663821856,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171146521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 12:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Who understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171146521","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"十年港股两茫茫，杀价值，灭投机。千股阴跌，无处话凄凉。纵使相逢应不识，问安好，道珍重。牛市幽梦难还乡，睡不着，吃不香。望盘无言，惟有泪千行。料得年年新低处，明月夜，又平仓。是什么，把善良单纯的股民，硬","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Ten years have passed since the Hong Kong stock market became divided, eroding value and eliminating speculation. Thousands of stocks plummeted, leaving nowhere to express their desolation. Even if we meet without recognizing each other, we should ask for your well-being and take good care of you. The bull market is a dream, it's hard to return home, I can't sleep, I can't eat well. I gazed at the plate without speaking, only a thousand tears streaming down my face. Expecting to hit a new low every year, on a moonlit night, I closed my position again.</b></p><p>What has forced a kind and innocent stock market investor into a poet filled with sorrow and heartbreak?</p><p>It's Hong Kong stocks, the dismal market that has been falling continuously since the beginning of last year.</p><p>If the recent decline in A-shares has been making you suffer and depressed, then take a look at the Hong Kong stock market. Take a look at the disastrous situation that has fallen since last year and is now on the verge of collapse. Perhaps you won't feel so bad.</p><p>Looking back at the trend of the Hong Kong stock market over the past two years, even many professional institutions were caught off guard.</p><p><b>We had previously thought that the darkest moment for Hong Kong stocks would pass after the regulatory attitude warmed up and the pandemic subsided. However, we did not expect that Hong Kong stocks, caught between the pandemic, the economy, and the changing situation in Sino-US relations, would be far more helpless than everyone imagined.</b></p><p>The reality has exceeded original expectations and has not improved, ultimately leading to repeated hopes and repeated disappointments.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market is incredibly difficult! Compared to it, the A-share market is not even worthy of carrying shoes.</p><p><b>01. Reflection: What exactly happened to Hong Kong stocks?</b></p><p>Looking back at this year, Hong Kong stocks have fallen by more than 20% from their highs. To make matters worse, it started falling at the beginning of last year. If it comes down from last year's high, the drop has even exceeded 40%, and Hang Seng Tech stocks have even fallen by almost 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6973cb9e4394c500a382423c7d34c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>From their respective peaks to the present, Alibaba's market capitalization has evaporated by HK$4 trillion, while Meituan's has evaporated by HK$1.8 trillion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>And other giants also saw their hundreds of billions evaporate.</p><p>The declines in other industries, such as real estate, healthcare, and education, were even more severe. The specific amount of evaporation is too difficult to detail.</p><p><b>These were the industries that were the most proud and sought-after by the market back then, but now everything has changed drastically, and the difference is truly astonishing.</b></p><p>These are the times.<b>A century of great changes</b>\"The most significant testimony.\"</p><p>Upon reflection,<b>Most importantly, people do not have a deep understanding of the depth of impact and the time span of this major change.</b></p><p>It's not just us. Look at those fund tycoons who manage billions or tens of billions of yuan. Some of them are veterans who have been honing their skills in the stock market for more than ten years, and their losses are not much better than those of ordinary stock investors. Those star managers who have emerged in recent years by seizing the opportunities presented by a particular industry have seen their fund performance fall even worse than that of retail investors, leaving fund investors clamoring for them to take action. For example, the performance of some A-share fund managers below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a751af4ae494059dc76fd6efa1ab66\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"866\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, being in a chess game, it is really difficult to deeply understand external changes. This is human nature; there is no distinction between high and low, noble and lowly.</p><p><b>If the analysis of the development and changes in the Hong Kong stock market over the years and the reasons behind them were written into a book and used as a textbook in universities, it would definitely be worthwhile.</b></p><p>But reflection is necessary. Let me briefly explain the core points:</p><p><b>Reflection 1,</b>Given changes in geopolitics, economic background, policies and regulations, as well as the special financial market status of Hong Kong stocks and the industry structure of listed companies, the operating logic of Hong Kong stocks cannot be fully explained by any simple theory.</p><p>What determines the fundamental operating logic of a financial market is the country it depends on and its economic development and changes, not certain industry sectors or individual stocks.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market itself has too little say. It is no longer entirely controlled by itself. The impact of the changing macroeconomic background of Sino-US relations on the Hong Kong stock market is one of the most crucial reasons. It is really difficult to interpret and analyze it in depth here. Everyone who understands understands.</p><p>Anyway, we've become too immersed in the habits of our past thinking.</p><p><b>Reflection Two</b>Another direct factor behind the financial cycle is the performance expectations and valuation logic of listed companies, which are not only related to the economic cycle, but also to policy changes. my country is currently in a stage of economic transformation. The best stage of the incremental dividends of the Internet has long passed. The real estate industry has also lost its glory with the saturation of urbanization and the arrival of an aging society. The huge bubbles accumulated in the crazy feast of 2019, such as healthcare, are still in the digestion stage.</p><p><b>The internet, real estate, and education have been analyzed too much, so I'm too lazy to go into them. Let's talk about the healthcare sector. This sector has had too many problems in the past. Although it won't be liquidated now, squeezing the bubble and verifying performance are real.</b></p><p>Most obviously, a large amount of capital acquires medical pipeline business or assets are reintegrated and packaged into companies that meet the Hong Kong stock listing standards, and then listed, advocating future expectations and stimulating the bubble to surge. Who would believe that those insurmountable diseases such as cancer, rare diseases, and Alzheimer's disease, which have been working in the laboratory for decades without achieving any results, have \"continuously made breakthroughs and are expected to be launched\" in the two or three years after being acquired by capital?</p><p>Look at those companies. How many of them started cashing out and running away after the lock-up period expired, or declared pipeline development failure? How many of their stock prices ended up in a mess?</p><p>The purpose of saying all that is to illustrate that the reason these sectors have fallen so much is not only due to the logical changes caused by the shift in Sino-US relations, but also largely due to the need to digest the previously excessively high valuation bubble. Of course, there is also the impact of the expected further contraction of their businesses in the future, which will lead to a contraction in valuations.</p><p><b>Reflection 3</b>Investing in the stock market is always against human nature; don't go against the trend.</p><p>Recently, we have noticed that many well-known large institutions have disclosed their share reductions.</p><p>For example, in August, Warren Buffett began selling off stocks he had held for 14 years.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD Group</a>They made tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars; At the same time, SoftBank also significantly reduced its holdings again.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The shares generated tens of billions of US dollars in profits; Earlier, Tencent's major shareholder, Naspers Group, also significantly reduced its holdings in Tencent, marking its third major reduction since 2018.</p><p>In fact, the reduction of holdings by giants does not mean that these target companies no longer have investment value; it is just that investment is always for the pursuit of profit. These giants certainly have a deeper understanding of the macro situation, the industry, and the company than ordinary people like us.</p><p>Therefore, they gave us a good signal to reduce their holdings, indicating that they lack confidence in the market, at least in the short term.<b>One big shot may not explain the problem. Several big shots are doing the same thing at the same time, so the signal strength is already obvious enough.</b></p><p>If we had understood this signal earlier and taken corresponding avoidance actions without going against the trend, we might not be so deeply trapped now.</p><p><b>02. What is the outlook for the stock market going forward?</b></p><p>The current increasingly complex and volatile situation renders any theory or prediction model useless.</p><p>We remain optimistic about the future of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in the long term, but we don't seem to have much confidence in the short term.</p><p>Judging from the various pressures currently facing Hong Kong stocks, there has been no significant improvement, especially regarding the relationship between the two countries. We cannot predict the outcome, nor can we predict how long the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine situation and its impact on the global economy will continue. However, it is possible to predict that the stock market will continue to fluctuate weakly for a period of time.</p><p>Meanwhile, the institutional leaders mentioned above have only recently started their share reduction plans, and it will take quite some time for them to reduce their holdings to the established target. This also means that they will still form a continuous selling pressure for the market.</p><p>In addition, the world is currently undergoing a vigorous rate hike in order to escape the extremely high inflation crisis, which is another major trigger for the decline in Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>The reason Hong Kong stocks fell so much today is because the US stock market is about to hold its interest rate meeting tonight. There is a large consensus in the market for a 100 basis point increase, which is an unbearable pressure, so the market fell for now.</p><p>The United States is now very clear that inflation will not decrease, and rate hike will not stop. Current inflation is still at 8%, which is a huge challenge to the target of below 3%. Therefore, there may be several more rate hike in the future, which also means that the pressure on Hong Kong stocks will remain for a long time.</p><p>Therefore, the pressure Hong Kong stocks are currently facing is both numerous and helpless.</p><p>Fortunately, among the major heavyweight sectors in Hong Kong stocks, most of their valuations are in line with their current performance levels from an industry perspective. Many leading companies have long since fallen below the industry average valuation level. Without these external concerns, they would be quite attractive.</p><p>We are now seeing the country pouring in a lot of policy dividends, with various policies to stabilize the economy emerging one after another, and since the third quarter, it has begun to achieve more and more results. Especially in non-real estate traditional infrastructure, various new infrastructure projects, hard technology industries, etc.</p><p><b>Objectively speaking, the fact that my country's economy has been able to maintain a decent growth rate under so much internal and external pressure is already quite stable and strong. Despite the significant stock market decline, the macroeconomic performance cannot be described as bad. We should objectively and rationally distinguish between the financial and economic aspects, and there is no need to completely negate the overall situation just because we see some negative aspects.</b></p><p>Currently, many giant companies have launched share buyback programs at the individual stock level. Since Tencent announced its buyback plan this year, it has been conducting buybacks of hundreds of millions of yuan per day and is still ongoing. At the same time, AIA, Xiaomi, and others are also involved.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Many companies have announced share buyback plans and are now actually engaging in share buybacks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13de920b326e80ba519d6465504e6a83\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the very least, the companies themselves believe they are undervalued.</p><p>In the long run, domestic policies are indeed showing a warming trend towards regulatory attitudes towards internet platforms, education, real estate, and other sectors. These sectors are inherently essential for the future, especially the internet, which is an indispensable infrastructure in the future digital age, with huge development potential.</p><p><b>Despite the current sharp decline, from a long-term perspective of five or even ten years, as long as these companies don't collapse, they still have a lot of room for growth in the future.</b></p><p>However, people now lack long-term patience and sufficient confidence.</p><p>On the other hand, even in the worst market, there will be structural market trends. Currently, there are still some industries that benefit from the current macroeconomic changes, such as traditional energy, materials, grain, high-end manufacturing, and various supply chain services, which can still have good development dividends.</p><p>If you ignore the industries in the vortex, these sectors can be good safe havens.</p><p><b>03. Conclusion</b></p><p>Despite the current environment, the Hong Kong stock market will still face significant pressure for some time to come.</p><p>Some analysts believe that under the influence of rate hike, inflation in the United States has begun to slow down or even decline. If the current pace of rate hike continues, the inflation rate may be able to be reduced to the target level by the first half of next year, provided that the US and even the global economy can be kept from collapsing.</p><p>But if rate hike causes an economic collapse, it would certainly be putting the cart before the horse, and it is definitely not what rate hike wants. So now everyone's expectations for rate hike are so high. Perhaps if the situation is better than expected, it cannot be ruled out that a rebound could occur, including in Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Furthermore, fundamentally, we still believe that it is more ideal and objective to objectively evaluate the current Hong Kong stock market using \"growing pains\". The reason is simple: the financial market is related to the nation's fate. If the nation's fate is upward, the stock market will inevitably rise in the long run. However, in the short term, it will be affected by various factors and will experience large fluctuations, which is the so-called crisis that has occurred in the past.</p><p>As China's most important window for opening up to the outside world, Hong Kong's financial market is of paramount economic value and strategic significance. Therefore, although the Hong Kong stock market is indeed experiencing constant growing pains, we should not lose hope for it. Perhaps if we just hang in there a little longer, things will get better next year when the Federal Reserve enters the end of a rate hike.</p><p>Hopefully, the Hong Kong stock market will be able to hold on and regain its glory.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-22 12:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Ten years have passed since the Hong Kong stock market became divided, eroding value and eliminating speculation. Thousands of stocks plummeted, leaving nowhere to express their desolation. Even if we meet without recognizing each other, we should ask for your well-being and take good care of you. The bull market is a dream, it's hard to return home, I can't sleep, I can't eat well. I gazed at the plate without speaking, only a thousand tears streaming down my face. Expecting to hit a new low every year, on a moonlit night, I closed my position again.</b></p><p>What has forced a kind and innocent stock market investor into a poet filled with sorrow and heartbreak?</p><p>It's Hong Kong stocks, the dismal market that has been falling continuously since the beginning of last year.</p><p>If the recent decline in A-shares has been making you suffer and depressed, then take a look at the Hong Kong stock market. Take a look at the disastrous situation that has fallen since last year and is now on the verge of collapse. Perhaps you won't feel so bad.</p><p>Looking back at the trend of the Hong Kong stock market over the past two years, even many professional institutions were caught off guard.</p><p><b>We had previously thought that the darkest moment for Hong Kong stocks would pass after the regulatory attitude warmed up and the pandemic subsided. However, we did not expect that Hong Kong stocks, caught between the pandemic, the economy, and the changing situation in Sino-US relations, would be far more helpless than everyone imagined.</b></p><p>The reality has exceeded original expectations and has not improved, ultimately leading to repeated hopes and repeated disappointments.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market is incredibly difficult! Compared to it, the A-share market is not even worthy of carrying shoes.</p><p><b>01. Reflection: What exactly happened to Hong Kong stocks?</b></p><p>Looking back at this year, Hong Kong stocks have fallen by more than 20% from their highs. To make matters worse, it started falling at the beginning of last year. If it comes down from last year's high, the drop has even exceeded 40%, and Hang Seng Tech stocks have even fallen by almost 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6973cb9e4394c500a382423c7d34c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>From their respective peaks to the present, Alibaba's market capitalization has evaporated by HK$4 trillion, while Meituan's has evaporated by HK$1.8 trillion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>And other giants also saw their hundreds of billions evaporate.</p><p>The declines in other industries, such as real estate, healthcare, and education, were even more severe. The specific amount of evaporation is too difficult to detail.</p><p><b>These were the industries that were the most proud and sought-after by the market back then, but now everything has changed drastically, and the difference is truly astonishing.</b></p><p>These are the times.<b>A century of great changes</b>\"The most significant testimony.\"</p><p>Upon reflection,<b>Most importantly, people do not have a deep understanding of the depth of impact and the time span of this major change.</b></p><p>It's not just us. Look at those fund tycoons who manage billions or tens of billions of yuan. Some of them are veterans who have been honing their skills in the stock market for more than ten years, and their losses are not much better than those of ordinary stock investors. Those star managers who have emerged in recent years by seizing the opportunities presented by a particular industry have seen their fund performance fall even worse than that of retail investors, leaving fund investors clamoring for them to take action. For example, the performance of some A-share fund managers below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a751af4ae494059dc76fd6efa1ab66\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"866\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, being in a chess game, it is really difficult to deeply understand external changes. This is human nature; there is no distinction between high and low, noble and lowly.</p><p><b>If the analysis of the development and changes in the Hong Kong stock market over the years and the reasons behind them were written into a book and used as a textbook in universities, it would definitely be worthwhile.</b></p><p>But reflection is necessary. Let me briefly explain the core points:</p><p><b>Reflection 1,</b>Given changes in geopolitics, economic background, policies and regulations, as well as the special financial market status of Hong Kong stocks and the industry structure of listed companies, the operating logic of Hong Kong stocks cannot be fully explained by any simple theory.</p><p>What determines the fundamental operating logic of a financial market is the country it depends on and its economic development and changes, not certain industry sectors or individual stocks.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market itself has too little say. It is no longer entirely controlled by itself. The impact of the changing macroeconomic background of Sino-US relations on the Hong Kong stock market is one of the most crucial reasons. It is really difficult to interpret and analyze it in depth here. Everyone who understands understands.</p><p>Anyway, we've become too immersed in the habits of our past thinking.</p><p><b>Reflection Two</b>Another direct factor behind the financial cycle is the performance expectations and valuation logic of listed companies, which are not only related to the economic cycle, but also to policy changes. my country is currently in a stage of economic transformation. The best stage of the incremental dividends of the Internet has long passed. The real estate industry has also lost its glory with the saturation of urbanization and the arrival of an aging society. The huge bubbles accumulated in the crazy feast of 2019, such as healthcare, are still in the digestion stage.</p><p><b>The internet, real estate, and education have been analyzed too much, so I'm too lazy to go into them. Let's talk about the healthcare sector. This sector has had too many problems in the past. Although it won't be liquidated now, squeezing the bubble and verifying performance are real.</b></p><p>Most obviously, a large amount of capital acquires medical pipeline business or assets are reintegrated and packaged into companies that meet the Hong Kong stock listing standards, and then listed, advocating future expectations and stimulating the bubble to surge. Who would believe that those insurmountable diseases such as cancer, rare diseases, and Alzheimer's disease, which have been working in the laboratory for decades without achieving any results, have \"continuously made breakthroughs and are expected to be launched\" in the two or three years after being acquired by capital?</p><p>Look at those companies. How many of them started cashing out and running away after the lock-up period expired, or declared pipeline development failure? How many of their stock prices ended up in a mess?</p><p>The purpose of saying all that is to illustrate that the reason these sectors have fallen so much is not only due to the logical changes caused by the shift in Sino-US relations, but also largely due to the need to digest the previously excessively high valuation bubble. Of course, there is also the impact of the expected further contraction of their businesses in the future, which will lead to a contraction in valuations.</p><p><b>Reflection 3</b>Investing in the stock market is always against human nature; don't go against the trend.</p><p>Recently, we have noticed that many well-known large institutions have disclosed their share reductions.</p><p>For example, in August, Warren Buffett began selling off stocks he had held for 14 years.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD Group</a>They made tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars; At the same time, SoftBank also significantly reduced its holdings again.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The shares generated tens of billions of US dollars in profits; Earlier, Tencent's major shareholder, Naspers Group, also significantly reduced its holdings in Tencent, marking its third major reduction since 2018.</p><p>In fact, the reduction of holdings by giants does not mean that these target companies no longer have investment value; it is just that investment is always for the pursuit of profit. These giants certainly have a deeper understanding of the macro situation, the industry, and the company than ordinary people like us.</p><p>Therefore, they gave us a good signal to reduce their holdings, indicating that they lack confidence in the market, at least in the short term.<b>One big shot may not explain the problem. Several big shots are doing the same thing at the same time, so the signal strength is already obvious enough.</b></p><p>If we had understood this signal earlier and taken corresponding avoidance actions without going against the trend, we might not be so deeply trapped now.</p><p><b>02. What is the outlook for the stock market going forward?</b></p><p>The current increasingly complex and volatile situation renders any theory or prediction model useless.</p><p>We remain optimistic about the future of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in the long term, but we don't seem to have much confidence in the short term.</p><p>Judging from the various pressures currently facing Hong Kong stocks, there has been no significant improvement, especially regarding the relationship between the two countries. We cannot predict the outcome, nor can we predict how long the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine situation and its impact on the global economy will continue. However, it is possible to predict that the stock market will continue to fluctuate weakly for a period of time.</p><p>Meanwhile, the institutional leaders mentioned above have only recently started their share reduction plans, and it will take quite some time for them to reduce their holdings to the established target. This also means that they will still form a continuous selling pressure for the market.</p><p>In addition, the world is currently undergoing a vigorous rate hike in order to escape the extremely high inflation crisis, which is another major trigger for the decline in Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>The reason Hong Kong stocks fell so much today is because the US stock market is about to hold its interest rate meeting tonight. There is a large consensus in the market for a 100 basis point increase, which is an unbearable pressure, so the market fell for now.</p><p>The United States is now very clear that inflation will not decrease, and rate hike will not stop. Current inflation is still at 8%, which is a huge challenge to the target of below 3%. Therefore, there may be several more rate hike in the future, which also means that the pressure on Hong Kong stocks will remain for a long time.</p><p>Therefore, the pressure Hong Kong stocks are currently facing is both numerous and helpless.</p><p>Fortunately, among the major heavyweight sectors in Hong Kong stocks, most of their valuations are in line with their current performance levels from an industry perspective. Many leading companies have long since fallen below the industry average valuation level. Without these external concerns, they would be quite attractive.</p><p>We are now seeing the country pouring in a lot of policy dividends, with various policies to stabilize the economy emerging one after another, and since the third quarter, it has begun to achieve more and more results. Especially in non-real estate traditional infrastructure, various new infrastructure projects, hard technology industries, etc.</p><p><b>Objectively speaking, the fact that my country's economy has been able to maintain a decent growth rate under so much internal and external pressure is already quite stable and strong. Despite the significant stock market decline, the macroeconomic performance cannot be described as bad. We should objectively and rationally distinguish between the financial and economic aspects, and there is no need to completely negate the overall situation just because we see some negative aspects.</b></p><p>Currently, many giant companies have launched share buyback programs at the individual stock level. Since Tencent announced its buyback plan this year, it has been conducting buybacks of hundreds of millions of yuan per day and is still ongoing. At the same time, AIA, Xiaomi, and others are also involved.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Many companies have announced share buyback plans and are now actually engaging in share buybacks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13de920b326e80ba519d6465504e6a83\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the very least, the companies themselves believe they are undervalued.</p><p>In the long run, domestic policies are indeed showing a warming trend towards regulatory attitudes towards internet platforms, education, real estate, and other sectors. These sectors are inherently essential for the future, especially the internet, which is an indispensable infrastructure in the future digital age, with huge development potential.</p><p><b>Despite the current sharp decline, from a long-term perspective of five or even ten years, as long as these companies don't collapse, they still have a lot of room for growth in the future.</b></p><p>However, people now lack long-term patience and sufficient confidence.</p><p>On the other hand, even in the worst market, there will be structural market trends. Currently, there are still some industries that benefit from the current macroeconomic changes, such as traditional energy, materials, grain, high-end manufacturing, and various supply chain services, which can still have good development dividends.</p><p>If you ignore the industries in the vortex, these sectors can be good safe havens.</p><p><b>03. Conclusion</b></p><p>Despite the current environment, the Hong Kong stock market will still face significant pressure for some time to come.</p><p>Some analysts believe that under the influence of rate hike, inflation in the United States has begun to slow down or even decline. If the current pace of rate hike continues, the inflation rate may be able to be reduced to the target level by the first half of next year, provided that the US and even the global economy can be kept from collapsing.</p><p>But if rate hike causes an economic collapse, it would certainly be putting the cart before the horse, and it is definitely not what rate hike wants. So now everyone's expectations for rate hike are so high. Perhaps if the situation is better than expected, it cannot be ruled out that a rebound could occur, including in Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Furthermore, fundamentally, we still believe that it is more ideal and objective to objectively evaluate the current Hong Kong stock market using \"growing pains\". The reason is simple: the financial market is related to the nation's fate. If the nation's fate is upward, the stock market will inevitably rise in the long run. However, in the short term, it will be affected by various factors and will experience large fluctuations, which is the so-called crisis that has occurred in the past.</p><p>As China's most important window for opening up to the outside world, Hong Kong's financial market is of paramount economic value and strategic significance. Therefore, although the Hong Kong stock market is indeed experiencing constant growing pains, we should not lose hope for it. Perhaps if we just hang in there a little longer, things will get better next year when the Federal Reserve enters the end of a rate hike.</p><p>Hopefully, the Hong Kong stock market will be able to hold on and regain its glory.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171146521","content_text":"十年港股两茫茫，杀价值，灭投机。千股阴跌，无处话凄凉。纵使相逢应不识，问安好，道珍重。牛市幽梦难还乡，睡不着，吃不香。望盘无言，惟有泪千行。料得年年新低处，明月夜，又平仓。是什么，把善良单纯的股民，硬生生逼成了愁绪万千、肝肠寸断的诗人骚客？是港股，是那从去年初到如今一直跌跌不休的惨淡行情。如果说这段时间A股的阴跌让你煎熬郁闷，那么请看一眼港股吧，看一眼从去年跌到现在已奄奄一息的惨状，或许你就不觉得那么难受了。回顾这两年港股市场的走势，即使是很多专业的机构都始料未及。我们此前也是，原想着监管态度转暖及疫情消退之后，港股最至暗的时刻就可以过去，却没想到，夹在疫情与经济、中美关系变局中间的港股，远比大家想象的无奈。现实的种种形势都超过了原先的预期，并且一直未见改观，最终导致一次次希望，又一次次失望。港股市场，实在太难了！A股跟它相比，提鞋都不配。01、反思，港股究竟怎么了？回顾今年来港股从高点一路下来，跌幅已超过20%。更惨的是，它是从去年初就开始下跌，如果从去年的高点下来，跌幅甚至超过了40%，恒生科技股甚至跌了差不多70%。腾讯、阿里从各自最高点到现在，各自市值蒸发了4万亿港元，美团蒸发了1.8万亿，京东、百度及其他巨头也都是几千亿、几千亿的蒸发。还有地产、医疗、教育等其他行业的跌幅更是一个比一个惨，具体的蒸发量，人艰不拆了。这些都是当年最值得骄傲、最被市场追捧的行业，如今却已物是人非，云泥之别，真的非常让人震撼。这些是时代“百年大变局”最显著的见证。反思起来，最主要的是对这个大变局所带来的影响深度和转变的时间跨度，大家的理解确实都不够深刻。不止我们，看看那些管理几十几百亿的基金大佬，有些还是在股市里熬炼十数年的老将，亏损的幅度并不比普通股民好多少。那些近几年抓住某个行业红利横空出世的明星经理，他们所管理的基金业绩甚至跌得比散户还惨，就差基民嚷嚷叫他们做事了，比如下面的一些A股基金经理的表现。所以身在棋局中，真的很难深刻认清局外变化，人性如此，不分高低贵贱。如果把这些年港股市场发展变化及背后原因分析写成一部书，给大学里当教材学习，相信都绝对不掉价。但反思是很必要的，简单讲一下核心的吧：反思一，港股在地缘政治、经济背景、政策监管等变化，以及港股本身特殊的金融市场地位和上市公司行业结构下，其运行逻辑绝对不是任何简单理论能解释得透。决定一个金融市场最底层运行逻辑的，只有它背后所依存的国家以及国家的经济发展变化，不是其中的某些行业板块，更不是部分个股。港股市场自身的话语权太小了，现在已经完全不是由其自身，中美关系变化的宏观大背景对港股带来的影响，这是最最关键的原因之一，这里真不好深入解读分析，大家懂的都懂。反正是我们太过于沉浸在过去的思维惯性上了。反思二，金融周期背后的另一个直接因素是上市公司的业绩预期与估值逻辑，这不仅关乎经济周期，还关乎政策变化。现在我国的处在经济转型的阶段，互联网的增量红利最好的阶段早就过去了，地产业也随着城镇化饱和和老龄化社会到来也高光不在，而医疗这些在2019年的疯狂盛宴中积累下来的巨大泡沫，到现在其实都是在消化阶段。互联网、地产、教育这些被分析太多懒得说了，再说下大医疗这块。这板块过去有太多的问题了，现在虽说不至于清算，但挤泡沫和业绩验证是实在的。最明显的，大量资本收购医疗管线业务或者资产再整合打包成符合港股上市标准的公司，然后上市，鼓吹未来预期，刺激泡沫激增。谁敢相信，那些横亘在人类面前难以逾越的癌症、稀罕病、阿尔兹海默症等各种疑难杂症在实验室里搞了几十年都没攻坚成果，却在被资本收购后三两年就“不断获得突破，产品上市有望”了？看看那些公司，有多少是上市解禁期过后，就开始套现跑路或者宣告管线研发失败的案例，有多少股价最后一地鸡毛的？说那么多，就是想说明，这些板块之所以跌那么多，除了中美关系转变导致的逻辑变化外，与本身之前过高的估值泡沫需要消化有很大关系，当然也有未来预期它们的业务进一步收缩导致估值收缩的影响。反思三，股市投资从来都是反人性的，不要跟趋势作对。这段时间以来，我们关注到有不少著名大机构都出行了披露减持的现象。比如8月份，股神巴菲特开始陆续抛售持有了14年之久的比亚迪股份，大赚数百亿港元；同时，软银也再度大幅减持了阿里巴巴股份，爆赚了几百亿美金；而稍早点的，是腾讯大股东Naspers集团也大笔减持腾讯股份，这是其2018年以来第三次大减持。其实巨头的减持并不代表这些标的公司从此没有投资价值，只是投资从来都是为逐利而来。这些巨头的经验和层次，它们对宏观形势、对行业、对公司的理解肯定比我们普通人要更加深入。所以，他们就给了我们很好减持信号，起码短期内对市场不够信心。一个大佬可能说明不了问题，几个大佬都是同一个时间做着同样的事，那信号强度已经足够明显了。如果我们能早点理解这个信号，并作出相应规避操作，不与趋势作对，或许现在不至于套那么深。02、接下来股市怎么看？当前越发复杂多变的形势局面，让任何理论和预测模型都没有用武之地。我们长期依然看好A股和港股市场的未来，只是短期内好像没太多信心。从当前港股所面临的种种压力看来，还没看到明显改观的变化，尤其两国关系的问题，我们无法预测到结果会如何，甚至俄乌局势引发的能源危机、对全球经济的冲击到底还持续到什么时候，这些都没办法预测，但可以预测的是，股市未来持续弱势震荡下去一段时间的概率挺大。同时，上面说的那些机构大佬的减持计划才开启不久，要减持到既定目标还要相当一段时间，这也意味着它们依然会对大市形成持续的抛压。此外，当前全球为了摆脱极端高通胀危机，还在大力加息中，这也是影响港股下跌的又一大诱因。今天港股跌那么多，就是因为今晚美股即将迎来议息会议，市场对加100基点的共识很大，这可是不堪重负的压力，所以市场就先跌为敬了。美国如今已经非常明确通胀不降，加息不止，而当前的通胀还有8%，与3%以内的目标还有巨大，所以未来可能还有几次加息，也意味着对港股的压力长期存在。所以说，港股现在面临的压力，真的又多又无奈。所幸的是，现在的港股几大权重板块中，从行业内部看多数的估值已经契合了当前的业绩水平，很多龙头早就跌破行业平均估值水平了，如果没有这些外部的困扰，它们是有不错的吸引力的。我们现在看到了国家正在倾注大量的政策红利，各种稳经济政策层出不穷，而且三季度以来，开始取得了越来越多的成绩。尤其是在非地产类的传统基建、各种新基建，硬科技产业等等。客观来讲，在如此多的内外部压力下，我国的经济还能维持幅度并不差的增速发展，已经足够稳健给力了。别看股市跌得比较多，但宏观经济运行真不能说差，我们应该对金融与经济面客观理性地区别看待，更没必要看到一些负面的就对整体全盘否定。现在，个股层面已经有很多巨头公司开启回购计划，腾讯今年宣布回购计划以来，动辄每天几个亿的回购，还在持续进行中，同时还有友邦、小米、长城汽车等很多公司都宣布了回购计划，并且真枪实弹下场回购。起码，企业本身是认为自己是低估的。其实从长期来看，现在国内政策面对互联网平台、教育、地产等监管态度确实有转暖趋势，凭借它们的所在赛道本就是属于未来刚需，尤其互联网这些更是未来数字时代不可或缺基础设施，发展空间还是巨大的。别看现在跌这么惨，但放在以五年甚至十年以上的长远视角看，只要这些公司不倒下，未来还是能有很大成长空间的。只是，现在大家缺乏长期的耐心和足够信心。另一方面，再差的市场里也会有结构的行情。当前还有一些受益于当前宏观变化的行业比如传统能源、材料、粮食、高端制造、各种供应链服务等领域，仍然能有不错的发展红利。如果不关注那些在漩涡中的行业，这些板块不失为不错的避风港。03、结语尽管当前港股的环境甚至未来一段时间，依然都会有较大的压力。有分析认为，在加息的影响下，美国的通胀已经开始趋缓甚至回落，如果按照目前的加息节奏下去，可能到明年上半年就差不多能把通胀率降到目标位置了，前提是能一直维持美国乃至全球经济不崩。但如果加息导致经济崩溃，肯定是对目标的本末倒置，绝不是加息想要的。所以现在大家把加息预期都打那么满，或许如果到时候形势好于预期，反而不排除包括港股在内能迎来反弹行情。此外，从根本上，我们还是觉得用“阵痛”来客观评价当前的港股市场更加理想客观。理由很简单，金融市场关乎国运，国运向上，股市长期必然向上，只是短期会受各种因素影响而出现大波动，也就是以前发生过的所谓的危机。香港作为中国对外开放最重要的窗口，其金融市场的经济价值和战略意义都无比重要，所以尽管现在港股确实是阵痛不断，我们不应该对其失去希望。也许再熬一熬，到了明年，美联储进入加息末端时，情况就变好了。希望到时候的港股，能守得云开，再现荣光吧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331733,"gmtCreate":1658144319222,"gmtModify":1676536111831,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331733","repostId":"2252828739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252828739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658136215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252828739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: Even if the US dodges a recession, US stocks may continue to fall.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252828739","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A major Wall Street short seller said that even if the U.S. economy avoids a recession, the U.S. stock market may continue to fall.</p><p>“The counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, even if we avoid a recession where the likelihood is rising, we do not believe the bear market is over,” Michael J. Wilson wrote in a report.</p><p>U.S. stocks have plummeted this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid concerns that soaring inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve could plunge the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The model shows that the likelihood of an economic recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession within the next 12 months, while other warning signs include an increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits and a decrease in job vacancies.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve expected to rate hike another 75 basis points next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if profit margins are resilient amid soaring prices and pessimistic sentiment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said he expects a weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability, which has already fallen from record highs. In a report dated July 15, the strategist wrote that profit margins and borrowing costs are now the two main risk factors for stock returns. Despite rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions, stock returns have remained strong over the past year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson has been one of the most determined stock market bears this year and has accurately predicted the recent market decline. He also stated that he was \"skeptical\" about expectations that profit margin pressures would ease after the second quarter.</p><p>“The risks to profit margins posed by ongoing labor, raw material, inventory and transportation cost pressures, coupled with slowing demand, are not reflected in general market expectations,” Wilson said. He stated that even if revenue growth forecasts remain unchanged, a return to pre-pandemic net profit margin levels means that long-term earnings per share will be impacted by 10%.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists say investors can ignore more challenging earnings-related news during the summer. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka stated in their report that the stock market typically peaks on or before the earnings trough, and the market may be approaching the point where bad data begins to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Even if the US dodges a recession, US stocks may continue to fall.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Even if the US dodges a recession, US stocks may continue to fall.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A major Wall Street short seller said that even if the U.S. economy avoids a recession, the U.S. stock market may continue to fall.</p><p>“The counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, even if we avoid a recession where the likelihood is rising, we do not believe the bear market is over,” Michael J. Wilson wrote in a report.</p><p>U.S. stocks have plummeted this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid concerns that soaring inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve could plunge the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The model shows that the likelihood of an economic recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession within the next 12 months, while other warning signs include an increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits and a decrease in job vacancies.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve expected to rate hike another 75 basis points next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if profit margins are resilient amid soaring prices and pessimistic sentiment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said he expects a weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability, which has already fallen from record highs. In a report dated July 15, the strategist wrote that profit margins and borrowing costs are now the two main risk factors for stock returns. Despite rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions, stock returns have remained strong over the past year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson has been one of the most determined stock market bears this year and has accurately predicted the recent market decline. He also stated that he was \"skeptical\" about expectations that profit margin pressures would ease after the second quarter.</p><p>“The risks to profit margins posed by ongoing labor, raw material, inventory and transportation cost pressures, coupled with slowing demand, are not reflected in general market expectations,” Wilson said. He stated that even if revenue growth forecasts remain unchanged, a return to pre-pandemic net profit margin levels means that long-term earnings per share will be impacted by 10%.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists say investors can ignore more challenging earnings-related news during the summer. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka stated in their report that the stock market typically peaks on or before the earnings trough, and the market may be approaching the point where bad data begins to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2252828739","content_text":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生衰退的概率为36%，而其他警告信号包括申领失业救济的人数上升以及职位空缺减少。鉴于美联储预计下周将再加息75个基点，投资者现在转向了企业财报季，看看在价格飙升和悲观情绪下，利润率是否具有韧性。高盛集团策略师David J． Kostin表示，他预计疲弱的宏观经济前景将威胁已经从纪录高位回落的企业盈利能力。这位策略师在7月 15日的报告中写道，利润率和借贷成本如今是股票回报率面临的两个主要风险因素。尽管面对投入成本上升、omicron疫情和供应链中断等问题，但股票回报率在过去一年中一直保持良好。摩根士丹利的Wilson是今年最坚定的股市空头之一，并准确预测到最近市场的下跌。他还表示，他对利润率压力将在第二季度之后有所缓解的预期持“怀疑态度”。“持续的劳动力、原材料、库存和运输成本压力再加上需求减速，这些因素对利润率构成的风险并未反映在市场普遍预期中，”Wilson说。他表示，即使收入增速预估保持必变，但净利润率水平回到疫情前的水平意味着远期每股收益将受到10%的冲击。另一方面，摩根大通的策略师们表示，投资者可以对夏季期间更具挑战性的盈利相关新闻视而不见。Mislav Matejka等策略师在报告中表示，股市通常会在盈利低谷到来或之前见顶，市场可能正在接近坏数据开始被视为好消息的时点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331467,"gmtCreate":1658144303959,"gmtModify":1676536111830,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331467","repostId":"2252346287","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331662,"gmtCreate":1658144270756,"gmtModify":1676536111847,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331662","repostId":"1152909637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072561079,"gmtCreate":1658065472191,"gmtModify":1676536100222,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072561079","repostId":"2251493617","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076562535,"gmtCreate":1657870691827,"gmtModify":1676536075558,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076562535","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174033197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the overnight reversal in US stocks: Former officials predict the timing of the Fed's \"turnaround\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Overnight, US stocks staged another V-shaped reversal, from a sharp decline to recovering most of their losses, while the Nasdaq narrowly closed higher. This may be related to a report by Bank of America's top interest rate strategist.</p><p>On Thursday, amid strong rate hike expectations, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively open low, all falling by more than 2% at one point. However, the three major indices rebounded strongly in the afternoon, with the S&P 500 ultimately closing down 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Two hawkish Federal Reserve officials made statements today, easing market expectations for a 100 basis point rate hike in July and boosting the rebound in US stocks to some extent. However, many frontline market traders believe that what really caused the overnight reversal in US stocks was a report by Marc Cabana, Bank of America's top interest rate strategist and former New York Fed analyst. The report argued that the Fed would be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the Head of U.S. Interest Rate Strategy at Bank of America Global Research. Prior to joining Bank of America, he was an official in the Markets Department of the New York Federal Reserve, worked in the open market trading department for nearly nine years, and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a series of asset purchase/quantitative easing programs during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's predictions of monetary policy are extremely accurate, even predicting them a few days before the Federal Reserve began purchasing corporate bonds. This has earned him a high reputation on Wall Street, and his views on Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and financial regulation have always attracted widespread attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Federal Reserve will not only cut interest rates, but also end its shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule.</p><p>On Thursday, after Bank of America's equity strategy team lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 4,500 to 3,600, the Cabana team released a report.<b>The Federal Reserve has significantly revised its U.S. interest rate forecast downward, anticipating that it will not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year but also end its shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule.</b></p><p>On the same day, Bank of America's macro team lowered its U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession and lowered the Federal Reserve's Federal Funds rate path, reducing its final Federal Funds rate forecast from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between September 23 and June 24 next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team accordingly lowered their expectations for US Treasury yields, lowering their expectations for the 10-year US Treasury yield maturing in 2022 from 3.50% to 2.75%, and for the 10-year US Treasury yield maturing in 2023 from 3.25% to 2.50%, and stated:</p><p>Given expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market's implied forward interest rates. Our previous interest rate forecasts initially reflected an optimistic trend towards forward interest rates, but the latest revisions are even more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of next year when shrinking balance sheet ends:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet send contradictory policy signals, we expect the Federal Reserve to halt shrinking balance sheet while cutting interest rates to simplify policy communication. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten its balance sheet by cutting interest rates while simultaneously easing the market. Cabana stated that this is actually what the Federal Reserve did in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced a halt to shrinking balance sheet. Of course, the Federal Reserve may also choose not to follow the 2019 tightening strategy, but Cabana believes this is unlikely, adding some reasons:</p><p>The Federal Reserve will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from reaching the level of a reserve shortage. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove it beforehand. We expect the Federal Reserve to choose the simplest way to communicate: to stop shrinking balance sheet when cutting interest rates. Cabana went on to point out that ending balance sheet reduction earlier would have several impacts on US Treasury bonds:</p><p>More cash/less collateral in the financial system reduces short-term depreciation pressure on US Treasury bonds, lower financing demand may lead to a further reduction in coupons, and reduced secondary market turmoil as the Federal Reserve resumes purchases and reinvestments. Each will tend to favor US Treasury yields and secured overnight financing rates, with spreads (UST-SOFR spreads) tending to widen across the curve. Regarding what changes will occur to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, Cabana stated:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Federal Reserve's cessation of shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 will result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the scenario previously predicted at the end of 2024. An earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would result in a $780 billion reduction in U.S. Treasury financing demand, plus an additional $350 billion in U.S. Treasury demand from the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the overnight reversal in US stocks: Former officials predict the timing of the Fed's \"turnaround\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the overnight reversal in US stocks: Former officials predict the timing of the Fed's \"turnaround\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-15 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Overnight, US stocks staged another V-shaped reversal, from a sharp decline to recovering most of their losses, while the Nasdaq narrowly closed higher. This may be related to a report by Bank of America's top interest rate strategist.</p><p>On Thursday, amid strong rate hike expectations, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively open low, all falling by more than 2% at one point. However, the three major indices rebounded strongly in the afternoon, with the S&P 500 ultimately closing down 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Two hawkish Federal Reserve officials made statements today, easing market expectations for a 100 basis point rate hike in July and boosting the rebound in US stocks to some extent. However, many frontline market traders believe that what really caused the overnight reversal in US stocks was a report by Marc Cabana, Bank of America's top interest rate strategist and former New York Fed analyst. The report argued that the Fed would be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the Head of U.S. Interest Rate Strategy at Bank of America Global Research. Prior to joining Bank of America, he was an official in the Markets Department of the New York Federal Reserve, worked in the open market trading department for nearly nine years, and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a series of asset purchase/quantitative easing programs during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's predictions of monetary policy are extremely accurate, even predicting them a few days before the Federal Reserve began purchasing corporate bonds. This has earned him a high reputation on Wall Street, and his views on Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and financial regulation have always attracted widespread attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Federal Reserve will not only cut interest rates, but also end its shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule.</p><p>On Thursday, after Bank of America's equity strategy team lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 4,500 to 3,600, the Cabana team released a report.<b>The Federal Reserve has significantly revised its U.S. interest rate forecast downward, anticipating that it will not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year but also end its shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule.</b></p><p>On the same day, Bank of America's macro team lowered its U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession and lowered the Federal Reserve's Federal Funds rate path, reducing its final Federal Funds rate forecast from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between September 23 and June 24 next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team accordingly lowered their expectations for US Treasury yields, lowering their expectations for the 10-year US Treasury yield maturing in 2022 from 3.50% to 2.75%, and for the 10-year US Treasury yield maturing in 2023 from 3.25% to 2.50%, and stated:</p><p>Given expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market's implied forward interest rates. Our previous interest rate forecasts initially reflected an optimistic trend towards forward interest rates, but the latest revisions are even more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of next year when shrinking balance sheet ends:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet send contradictory policy signals, we expect the Federal Reserve to halt shrinking balance sheet while cutting interest rates to simplify policy communication. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten its balance sheet by cutting interest rates while simultaneously easing the market. Cabana stated that this is actually what the Federal Reserve did in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced a halt to shrinking balance sheet. Of course, the Federal Reserve may also choose not to follow the 2019 tightening strategy, but Cabana believes this is unlikely, adding some reasons:</p><p>The Federal Reserve will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from reaching the level of a reserve shortage. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove it beforehand. We expect the Federal Reserve to choose the simplest way to communicate: to stop shrinking balance sheet when cutting interest rates. Cabana went on to point out that ending balance sheet reduction earlier would have several impacts on US Treasury bonds:</p><p>More cash/less collateral in the financial system reduces short-term depreciation pressure on US Treasury bonds, lower financing demand may lead to a further reduction in coupons, and reduced secondary market turmoil as the Federal Reserve resumes purchases and reinvestments. Each will tend to favor US Treasury yields and secured overnight financing rates, with spreads (UST-SOFR spreads) tending to widen across the curve. Regarding what changes will occur to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, Cabana stated:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Federal Reserve's cessation of shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 will result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the scenario previously predicted at the end of 2024. An earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would result in a $780 billion reduction in U.S. Treasury financing demand, plus an additional $350 billion in U.S. Treasury demand from the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058095535,"gmtCreate":1654749148027,"gmtModify":1676535504482,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"F","listText":"F","text":"F","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058095535","repostId":"1137515089","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023147544,"gmtCreate":1652886339388,"gmtModify":1676535181648,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023147544","repostId":"1169142248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169142248","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652856447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169142248?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the US stock market bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is none yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has led investors to focus on finding entry opportunities rather than worrying about another sharp market decline.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eagerness to buy at the bottom is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually descend, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this does not mean that US stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rebound than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that when a bear market actually bottoms out, almost no investors will consider this possibility. Bear market bottoms occur when investors are not even paying attention because they have become so frustrated that they have given up or regard any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Clearly, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief: denial, anger, cutting back on living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they performed in the stock market:</p><p>Denial phase: In this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of being angry, investors remained quite optimistic because the market correction provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>Anger phase: As the market correction becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investors' emotions eventually turned to anger as they complained about the unfairness of the withdrawal. One characteristic of this phase is that investors view withdrawals as an insult to individuals, as if the market should care whether investors lose money.</p><p>Reduce living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle if their portfolio is hit. Retirees are restructuring their financial plans, forgoing certain purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration phase: As the market continues to decline, people begin to realize that simply reducing spending is not enough and that significant lifestyle changes are needed. People nearing retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and some retirees are even returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance phase: Investors admit defeat; they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a foolish rebound, tempting those who are easily fooled to lose more money in the next round of declines.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market at now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the US stock market has not yet passed the second phase. While not all investors are on the same page, overall market sentiment tends to suggest that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the market's current vulnerability is largely unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and misleading. Currently, there are signs in the market that Wall Street institutions are \"surrendering,\" but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors truly admit defeat, no one shouts about admitting defeat; instead, they are indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the five stages mentioned above, because not all corrections will evolve into a typical bear market. These discussions do not mean that the market will inevitably fall further. However, optimists want the market to turn around and must wait until investors truly surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the US stock market bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is none yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has led investors to focus on finding entry opportunities rather than worrying about another sharp market decline.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eagerness to buy at the bottom is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually descend, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this does not mean that US stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rebound than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that when a bear market actually bottoms out, almost no investors will consider this possibility. Bear market bottoms occur when investors are not even paying attention because they have become so frustrated that they have given up or regard any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Clearly, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief: denial, anger, cutting back on living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they performed in the stock market:</p><p>Denial phase: In this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of being angry, investors remained quite optimistic because the market correction provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>Anger phase: As the market correction becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investors' emotions eventually turned to anger as they complained about the unfairness of the withdrawal. One characteristic of this phase is that investors view withdrawals as an insult to individuals, as if the market should care whether investors lose money.</p><p>Reduce living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle if their portfolio is hit. Retirees are restructuring their financial plans, forgoing certain purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration phase: As the market continues to decline, people begin to realize that simply reducing spending is not enough and that significant lifestyle changes are needed. People nearing retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and some retirees are even returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance phase: Investors admit defeat; they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a foolish rebound, tempting those who are easily fooled to lose more money in the next round of declines.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market at now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the US stock market has not yet passed the second phase. While not all investors are on the same page, overall market sentiment tends to suggest that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the market's current vulnerability is largely unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and misleading. Currently, there are signs in the market that Wall Street institutions are \"surrendering,\" but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors truly admit defeat, no one shouts about admitting defeat; instead, they are indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the five stages mentioned above, because not all corrections will evolve into a typical bear market. These discussions do not mean that the market will inevitably fall further. However, optimists want the market to turn around and must wait until investors truly surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029639276,"gmtCreate":1652764121495,"gmtModify":1676535157604,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029639276","repostId":"2236279293","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2236279293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652762148,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236279293?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 12:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America Securities: Nio-SW (9866.HK) valuation attractive, target price raised to HK$202","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236279293","media":"金融界网站","summary":"美银证券发表报告指，蔚来-SW(9866.HK)的销售改善，预期今年下半年会有更佳的毛利率，且其估值吸引，因此将集团股份评级由“中性”升至“买入”，目标价上调至202港元。　　该行表示，集团有强劲的型号周期及订单积压，其中“ET7”车款已于3月开始付运，“ES7”亦预期将于6月推出，及8月开始交货。　　美银又认为，蔚来的估值吸引，现价相当于一年预测企业价值/销售比率1.7倍，较历史平均低一个标准差。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Bank of America Securities released a report stating that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>(9866.HK) has improved sales, is expected to have better gross profit margins in the second half of this year, and its valuation is attractive. Therefore, we have upgraded the group's stock rating from \"neutral\" to \"buy\" and raised the target price to HK$202.</p><p>The bank stated that the group has a strong model cycle and order backlog, with the \"ET7\" model having begun shipping in March and the \"ES7\" expected to be launched in June with deliveries starting in August.</p><p>Bank of America also believes that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The valuation is attractive, with the current price equivalent to a one-year forecast corporate value/sales ratio of 1.7 times, which is one standard deviation lower than the historical average.</p><p><div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America Securities: Nio-SW (9866.HK) valuation attractive, target price raised to HK$202</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America Securities: Nio-SW (9866.HK) valuation attractive, target price raised to HK$202\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界网站</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-17 12:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Bank of America Securities released a report stating that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>(9866.HK) has improved sales, is expected to have better gross profit margins in the second half of this year, and its valuation is attractive. Therefore, we have upgraded the group's stock rating from \"neutral\" to \"buy\" and raised the target price to HK$202.</p><p>The bank stated that the group has a strong model cycle and order backlog, with the \"ET7\" model having begun shipping in March and the \"ES7\" expected to be launched in June with deliveries starting in August.</p><p>Bank of America also believes that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The valuation is attractive, with the current price equivalent to a one-year forecast corporate value/sales ratio of 1.7 times, which is one standard deviation lower than the historical average.</p><p><div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2022/05/17123536654595.shtml\">金融界网站</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2022/05/17123536654595.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236279293","content_text":"美银证券发表报告指，蔚来-SW(9866.HK)的销售改善，预期今年下半年会有更佳的毛利率，且其估值吸引，因此将集团股份评级由“中性”升至“买入”，目标价上调至202港元。　　该行表示，集团有强劲的型号周期及订单积压，其中“ET7”车款已于3月开始付运，“ES7”亦预期将于6月推出，及8月开始交货。　　美银又认为，蔚来的估值吸引，现价相当于一年预测企业价值/销售比率1.7倍，较历史平均低一个标准差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":1,"NIO":1,"09866":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9982019949,"gmtCreate":1667041042282,"gmtModify":1676537853341,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BSL.SI\">$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$</a>go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BSL.SI\">$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$</a>go","text":"$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50313c43919ff6a8f7047e3ce40fcf0d","width":"1125","height":"2244"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982019949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023147544,"gmtCreate":1652886339388,"gmtModify":1676535181648,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023147544","repostId":"1169142248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169142248","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652856447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169142248?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the US stock market bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is none yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has led investors to focus on finding entry opportunities rather than worrying about another sharp market decline.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eagerness to buy at the bottom is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually descend, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this does not mean that US stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rebound than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that when a bear market actually bottoms out, almost no investors will consider this possibility. Bear market bottoms occur when investors are not even paying attention because they have become so frustrated that they have given up or regard any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Clearly, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief: denial, anger, cutting back on living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they performed in the stock market:</p><p>Denial phase: In this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of being angry, investors remained quite optimistic because the market correction provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>Anger phase: As the market correction becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investors' emotions eventually turned to anger as they complained about the unfairness of the withdrawal. One characteristic of this phase is that investors view withdrawals as an insult to individuals, as if the market should care whether investors lose money.</p><p>Reduce living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle if their portfolio is hit. Retirees are restructuring their financial plans, forgoing certain purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration phase: As the market continues to decline, people begin to realize that simply reducing spending is not enough and that significant lifestyle changes are needed. People nearing retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and some retirees are even returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance phase: Investors admit defeat; they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a foolish rebound, tempting those who are easily fooled to lose more money in the next round of declines.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market at now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the US stock market has not yet passed the second phase. While not all investors are on the same page, overall market sentiment tends to suggest that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the market's current vulnerability is largely unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and misleading. Currently, there are signs in the market that Wall Street institutions are \"surrendering,\" but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors truly admit defeat, no one shouts about admitting defeat; instead, they are indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the five stages mentioned above, because not all corrections will evolve into a typical bear market. These discussions do not mean that the market will inevitably fall further. However, optimists want the market to turn around and must wait until investors truly surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the US stock market bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is none yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has led investors to focus on finding entry opportunities rather than worrying about another sharp market decline.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eagerness to buy at the bottom is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually descend, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this does not mean that US stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rebound than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that when a bear market actually bottoms out, almost no investors will consider this possibility. Bear market bottoms occur when investors are not even paying attention because they have become so frustrated that they have given up or regard any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Clearly, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief: denial, anger, cutting back on living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they performed in the stock market:</p><p>Denial phase: In this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of being angry, investors remained quite optimistic because the market correction provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>Anger phase: As the market correction becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investors' emotions eventually turned to anger as they complained about the unfairness of the withdrawal. One characteristic of this phase is that investors view withdrawals as an insult to individuals, as if the market should care whether investors lose money.</p><p>Reduce living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle if their portfolio is hit. Retirees are restructuring their financial plans, forgoing certain purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration phase: As the market continues to decline, people begin to realize that simply reducing spending is not enough and that significant lifestyle changes are needed. People nearing retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and some retirees are even returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance phase: Investors admit defeat; they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a foolish rebound, tempting those who are easily fooled to lose more money in the next round of declines.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market at now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the US stock market has not yet passed the second phase. While not all investors are on the same page, overall market sentiment tends to suggest that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the market's current vulnerability is largely unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and misleading. Currently, there are signs in the market that Wall Street institutions are \"surrendering,\" but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors truly admit defeat, no one shouts about admitting defeat; instead, they are indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the five stages mentioned above, because not all corrections will evolve into a typical bear market. These discussions do not mean that the market will inevitably fall further. However, optimists want the market to turn around and must wait until investors truly surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951826504,"gmtCreate":1673451869709,"gmtModify":1676538839366,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will see","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will see","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ will see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951826504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007594383,"gmtCreate":1642933401247,"gmtModify":1676533758458,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007594383","repostId":"1181967997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964077408,"gmtCreate":1670042610604,"gmtModify":1676538294664,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sell then","listText":"Sell then","text":"Sell then","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964077408","repostId":"2288043967","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914672471,"gmtCreate":1665280962993,"gmtModify":1676537581163,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$2600？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914672471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331733,"gmtCreate":1658144319222,"gmtModify":1676536111831,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331733","repostId":"2252828739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252828739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658136215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252828739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: Even if the US dodges a recession, US stocks may continue to fall.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252828739","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A major Wall Street short seller said that even if the U.S. economy avoids a recession, the U.S. stock market may continue to fall.</p><p>“The counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, even if we avoid a recession where the likelihood is rising, we do not believe the bear market is over,” Michael J. Wilson wrote in a report.</p><p>U.S. stocks have plummeted this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid concerns that soaring inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve could plunge the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The model shows that the likelihood of an economic recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession within the next 12 months, while other warning signs include an increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits and a decrease in job vacancies.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve expected to rate hike another 75 basis points next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if profit margins are resilient amid soaring prices and pessimistic sentiment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said he expects a weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability, which has already fallen from record highs. In a report dated July 15, the strategist wrote that profit margins and borrowing costs are now the two main risk factors for stock returns. Despite rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions, stock returns have remained strong over the past year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson has been one of the most determined stock market bears this year and has accurately predicted the recent market decline. He also stated that he was \"skeptical\" about expectations that profit margin pressures would ease after the second quarter.</p><p>“The risks to profit margins posed by ongoing labor, raw material, inventory and transportation cost pressures, coupled with slowing demand, are not reflected in general market expectations,” Wilson said. He stated that even if revenue growth forecasts remain unchanged, a return to pre-pandemic net profit margin levels means that long-term earnings per share will be impacted by 10%.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists say investors can ignore more challenging earnings-related news during the summer. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka stated in their report that the stock market typically peaks on or before the earnings trough, and the market may be approaching the point where bad data begins to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Even if the US dodges a recession, US stocks may continue to fall.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Even if the US dodges a recession, US stocks may continue to fall.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A major Wall Street short seller said that even if the U.S. economy avoids a recession, the U.S. stock market may continue to fall.</p><p>“The counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, even if we avoid a recession where the likelihood is rising, we do not believe the bear market is over,” Michael J. Wilson wrote in a report.</p><p>U.S. stocks have plummeted this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid concerns that soaring inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve could plunge the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The model shows that the likelihood of an economic recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession within the next 12 months, while other warning signs include an increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits and a decrease in job vacancies.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve expected to rate hike another 75 basis points next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if profit margins are resilient amid soaring prices and pessimistic sentiment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said he expects a weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability, which has already fallen from record highs. In a report dated July 15, the strategist wrote that profit margins and borrowing costs are now the two main risk factors for stock returns. Despite rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions, stock returns have remained strong over the past year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson has been one of the most determined stock market bears this year and has accurately predicted the recent market decline. He also stated that he was \"skeptical\" about expectations that profit margin pressures would ease after the second quarter.</p><p>“The risks to profit margins posed by ongoing labor, raw material, inventory and transportation cost pressures, coupled with slowing demand, are not reflected in general market expectations,” Wilson said. He stated that even if revenue growth forecasts remain unchanged, a return to pre-pandemic net profit margin levels means that long-term earnings per share will be impacted by 10%.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists say investors can ignore more challenging earnings-related news during the summer. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka stated in their report that the stock market typically peaks on or before the earnings trough, and the market may be approaching the point where bad data begins to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2252828739","content_text":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生衰退的概率为36%，而其他警告信号包括申领失业救济的人数上升以及职位空缺减少。鉴于美联储预计下周将再加息75个基点，投资者现在转向了企业财报季，看看在价格飙升和悲观情绪下，利润率是否具有韧性。高盛集团策略师David J． Kostin表示，他预计疲弱的宏观经济前景将威胁已经从纪录高位回落的企业盈利能力。这位策略师在7月 15日的报告中写道，利润率和借贷成本如今是股票回报率面临的两个主要风险因素。尽管面对投入成本上升、omicron疫情和供应链中断等问题，但股票回报率在过去一年中一直保持良好。摩根士丹利的Wilson是今年最坚定的股市空头之一，并准确预测到最近市场的下跌。他还表示，他对利润率压力将在第二季度之后有所缓解的预期持“怀疑态度”。“持续的劳动力、原材料、库存和运输成本压力再加上需求减速，这些因素对利润率构成的风险并未反映在市场普遍预期中，”Wilson说。他表示，即使收入增速预估保持必变，但净利润率水平回到疫情前的水平意味着远期每股收益将受到10%的冲击。另一方面，摩根大通的策略师们表示，投资者可以对夏季期间更具挑战性的盈利相关新闻视而不见。Mislav Matejka等策略师在报告中表示，股市通常会在盈利低谷到来或之前见顶，市场可能正在接近坏数据开始被视为好消息的时点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331662,"gmtCreate":1658144270756,"gmtModify":1676536111847,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331662","repostId":"1152909637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076562535,"gmtCreate":1657870691827,"gmtModify":1676536075558,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076562535","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174033197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the overnight reversal in US stocks: Former officials predict the timing of the Fed's \"turnaround\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Overnight, US stocks staged another V-shaped reversal, from a sharp decline to recovering most of their losses, while the Nasdaq narrowly closed higher. This may be related to a report by Bank of America's top interest rate strategist.</p><p>On Thursday, amid strong rate hike expectations, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively open low, all falling by more than 2% at one point. However, the three major indices rebounded strongly in the afternoon, with the S&P 500 ultimately closing down 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Two hawkish Federal Reserve officials made statements today, easing market expectations for a 100 basis point rate hike in July and boosting the rebound in US stocks to some extent. However, many frontline market traders believe that what really caused the overnight reversal in US stocks was a report by Marc Cabana, Bank of America's top interest rate strategist and former New York Fed analyst. The report argued that the Fed would be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the Head of U.S. Interest Rate Strategy at Bank of America Global Research. Prior to joining Bank of America, he was an official in the Markets Department of the New York Federal Reserve, worked in the open market trading department for nearly nine years, and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a series of asset purchase/quantitative easing programs during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's predictions of monetary policy are extremely accurate, even predicting them a few days before the Federal Reserve began purchasing corporate bonds. This has earned him a high reputation on Wall Street, and his views on Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and financial regulation have always attracted widespread attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Federal Reserve will not only cut interest rates, but also end its shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule.</p><p>On Thursday, after Bank of America's equity strategy team lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 4,500 to 3,600, the Cabana team released a report.<b>The Federal Reserve has significantly revised its U.S. interest rate forecast downward, anticipating that it will not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year but also end its shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule.</b></p><p>On the same day, Bank of America's macro team lowered its U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession and lowered the Federal Reserve's Federal Funds rate path, reducing its final Federal Funds rate forecast from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between September 23 and June 24 next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team accordingly lowered their expectations for US Treasury yields, lowering their expectations for the 10-year US Treasury yield maturing in 2022 from 3.50% to 2.75%, and for the 10-year US Treasury yield maturing in 2023 from 3.25% to 2.50%, and stated:</p><p>Given expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market's implied forward interest rates. Our previous interest rate forecasts initially reflected an optimistic trend towards forward interest rates, but the latest revisions are even more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of next year when shrinking balance sheet ends:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet send contradictory policy signals, we expect the Federal Reserve to halt shrinking balance sheet while cutting interest rates to simplify policy communication. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten its balance sheet by cutting interest rates while simultaneously easing the market. Cabana stated that this is actually what the Federal Reserve did in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced a halt to shrinking balance sheet. Of course, the Federal Reserve may also choose not to follow the 2019 tightening strategy, but Cabana believes this is unlikely, adding some reasons:</p><p>The Federal Reserve will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from reaching the level of a reserve shortage. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove it beforehand. We expect the Federal Reserve to choose the simplest way to communicate: to stop shrinking balance sheet when cutting interest rates. Cabana went on to point out that ending balance sheet reduction earlier would have several impacts on US Treasury bonds:</p><p>More cash/less collateral in the financial system reduces short-term depreciation pressure on US Treasury bonds, lower financing demand may lead to a further reduction in coupons, and reduced secondary market turmoil as the Federal Reserve resumes purchases and reinvestments. Each will tend to favor US Treasury yields and secured overnight financing rates, with spreads (UST-SOFR spreads) tending to widen across the curve. Regarding what changes will occur to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, Cabana stated:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Federal Reserve's cessation of shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 will result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the scenario previously predicted at the end of 2024. An earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would result in a $780 billion reduction in U.S. Treasury financing demand, plus an additional $350 billion in U.S. Treasury demand from the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the overnight reversal in US stocks: Former officials predict the timing of the Fed's \"turnaround\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the overnight reversal in US stocks: Former officials predict the timing of the Fed's \"turnaround\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-15 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Overnight, US stocks staged another V-shaped reversal, from a sharp decline to recovering most of their losses, while the Nasdaq narrowly closed higher. This may be related to a report by Bank of America's top interest rate strategist.</p><p>On Thursday, amid strong rate hike expectations, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively open low, all falling by more than 2% at one point. However, the three major indices rebounded strongly in the afternoon, with the S&P 500 ultimately closing down 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Two hawkish Federal Reserve officials made statements today, easing market expectations for a 100 basis point rate hike in July and boosting the rebound in US stocks to some extent. However, many frontline market traders believe that what really caused the overnight reversal in US stocks was a report by Marc Cabana, Bank of America's top interest rate strategist and former New York Fed analyst. The report argued that the Fed would be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the Head of U.S. Interest Rate Strategy at Bank of America Global Research. Prior to joining Bank of America, he was an official in the Markets Department of the New York Federal Reserve, worked in the open market trading department for nearly nine years, and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a series of asset purchase/quantitative easing programs during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's predictions of monetary policy are extremely accurate, even predicting them a few days before the Federal Reserve began purchasing corporate bonds. This has earned him a high reputation on Wall Street, and his views on Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and financial regulation have always attracted widespread attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Federal Reserve will not only cut interest rates, but also end its shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule.</p><p>On Thursday, after Bank of America's equity strategy team lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 4,500 to 3,600, the Cabana team released a report.<b>The Federal Reserve has significantly revised its U.S. interest rate forecast downward, anticipating that it will not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year but also end its shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule.</b></p><p>On the same day, Bank of America's macro team lowered its U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession and lowered the Federal Reserve's Federal Funds rate path, reducing its final Federal Funds rate forecast from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between September 23 and June 24 next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team accordingly lowered their expectations for US Treasury yields, lowering their expectations for the 10-year US Treasury yield maturing in 2022 from 3.50% to 2.75%, and for the 10-year US Treasury yield maturing in 2023 from 3.25% to 2.50%, and stated:</p><p>Given expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market's implied forward interest rates. Our previous interest rate forecasts initially reflected an optimistic trend towards forward interest rates, but the latest revisions are even more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of next year when shrinking balance sheet ends:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet send contradictory policy signals, we expect the Federal Reserve to halt shrinking balance sheet while cutting interest rates to simplify policy communication. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten its balance sheet by cutting interest rates while simultaneously easing the market. Cabana stated that this is actually what the Federal Reserve did in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced a halt to shrinking balance sheet. Of course, the Federal Reserve may also choose not to follow the 2019 tightening strategy, but Cabana believes this is unlikely, adding some reasons:</p><p>The Federal Reserve will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from reaching the level of a reserve shortage. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove it beforehand. We expect the Federal Reserve to choose the simplest way to communicate: to stop shrinking balance sheet when cutting interest rates. Cabana went on to point out that ending balance sheet reduction earlier would have several impacts on US Treasury bonds:</p><p>More cash/less collateral in the financial system reduces short-term depreciation pressure on US Treasury bonds, lower financing demand may lead to a further reduction in coupons, and reduced secondary market turmoil as the Federal Reserve resumes purchases and reinvestments. Each will tend to favor US Treasury yields and secured overnight financing rates, with spreads (UST-SOFR spreads) tending to widen across the curve. Regarding what changes will occur to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, Cabana stated:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Federal Reserve's cessation of shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 will result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the scenario previously predicted at the end of 2024. An earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would result in a $780 billion reduction in U.S. Treasury financing demand, plus an additional $350 billion in U.S. Treasury demand from the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016486715,"gmtCreate":1649219337928,"gmtModify":1676534472864,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"en","listText":"en","text":"en","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016486715","repostId":"2225536464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225536464","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649205086,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225536464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 08:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CICC: Who's selling? Looking at the Recent Fluctuation of Hong Kong Stocks from the Capital Side","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225536464","media":"中金点睛","summary":"来源：中金点睛3月中旬港股和中概股市场一度出现明显波动，其剧烈程度表明一定程度上可能存在流动性的冲击。不过，依然值得探究问题是，谁在卖出？3月中上旬港股动荡期间，南下资金依然流入，甚至逆势加速。具体而言，俄乌局势持续紧张引发的连带制裁以及投资适当性担忧，可能使得部分海外投资者减持。另一方面，因俄罗斯持仓冻结而需要被迫减持中国资产也不排除解释一部分。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In mid-March, there were obvious fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market and the China concept stock market, and its intensity indicated that there may be liquidity shock to a certain extent. Fortunately, in mid-March, the stability maintenance signal of the Financial Committee stabilized the market sentiment in time, avoided the further amplification of panic selling caused by liquidity shock, and the market also rebounded. However, it is still worth exploring. The question is, who's selling? What is the reason? Is there any pressure in the follow-up? Discussing these problems is also of reference significance for judging the follow-up market trend.</p><p>Who's selling? The overall inflow of southbound funds may be the main reason for overseas funds, especially active funds</p><p>The existing data caliber is incomplete (for example, the capital flow of EPFR only covers investors such as \"funds\") and the objective reality that the shareholding of HKEx is not penetrating, which makes it extremely difficult to try to grasp the overall investor structure of Hong Kong stocks and the changes of high-frequency capital flow. To solve this problem, we try to combine the \"puzzle\" of macro (Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, Hong Kong M3, BOP portfolio investment), capital flow (interconnection southbound funds, EPFR capital flow), CCASS shareholding of HKEx (intermediary shareholding), fund position and company shareholder information (such as SEC 13F, company shareholders, fund announcement) into a relatively comprehensive information. Combining the latest changes, we found that:</p><p>Southbound funds: inflows against the trend in turmoil, until it weakened in the near future. During the turmoil of Hong Kong stocks in mid-to-early March, funds going south still flowed in, and even accelerated against the trend. Except for the slight outflow on March 17th, from February 23rd, when the market fluctuated, to March 23rd, when the market stabilized and rebounded, southbound funds maintained the inflow almost every day and continued to accelerate, with an overall inflow of HK$63.4 billion, accounting for two-thirds of the overall inflow of HK$97.3 billion since the beginning of the year. The specific flow direction also shows the characteristics of adding positions against the trend, such as new economic leaders with large declines, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Wait is flowing into the main force, while Sunny Optical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601939\">China Construction Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a>More outflow. Therefore, it can be seen that the funds going south are not dominant in this round of fluctuations.</p><p>Overseas funds: passive capital inflow and active capital outflow. Obviously, overseas capital outflow is the main reason, among which active capital outflow is the dominant reason, which is reflected in: 1) Under the EPFR caliber, active funds flowed out of A shares, Hong Kong stocks and China from the end of February to mid-March, with a total scale of 4.57 billion USD; However, passive funds still inflowed $9.05 billion in the same period; 2) A large outflow of northbound funds (~68 billion RMB during the most volatile period in the first two weeks, second only to 87 billion RMB during the epidemic turmoil in March 2020); 3) IIF's estimated outflow of China's stock portfolio under the BOP caliber in the first half of March was USD 10.5 billion, a new high since the data was available in 2005; 4) The weakening of Hong Kong dollar and RMB under the background of no sharp appreciation of the US dollar also illustrates the pressure of some capital outflows. In addition, from the shareholding structure: 1) In early March, among the CCASS shares of HKEx, the shares of foreign intermediaries decreased the most (1.07ppt), Chinese intermediaries rose slightly (0.10ppt), and local intermediaries in Hong Kong rose the most (0.97ppt); 2) Based on the summary of quarterly information of the top 100 overseas Chinese stocks by market capitalization by nearly 6,000 foreign institutional investors, we found that the shareholding of foreign institutions has decreased from approximately 21.2% at the end of 2021 to 19.8% at present; 3) Some overseas institutions prompt possible changes in positions through reports and announcements.</p><p>Why does it flow out? Collateral risks and investment appropriateness concerns under geopolitical risks, internal and external regulatory uncertainties</p><p>We believe that the reason for the large and concentrated external capital outflow may be related to factors such as associated risks and investment appropriateness concerns under the continuous geopolitical tension, as well as internal and external regulatory uncertainties. In particular,</p><p>The joint sanctions caused by the continuous tension between Russia and Ukraine and concerns about investment appropriateness may cause some overseas investors to reduce their holdings. In mid-March, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced that it had removed a Chinese stock in Hong Kong from its portfolio [1], coinciding with the tension between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns that more similar measures could follow. As the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense, concerns that China or some Chinese enterprises may be subject to joint and several sanctions, or fears that they are not in line with investment philosophy may prompt some investment institutions, especially long-term and large investment institutions, to evaluate the exposure of Chinese assets.</p><p>The regulation of Chinese stocks and the variables of Sino-US relations have also caused some investors to worry. For example, some overseas pension and large investment institutions have repeatedly mentioned their concerns about Sino-US trade friction and other factors in their reports. In early March, according to the detailed rules of the Foreign Company Accountability Law, the SEC put the first batch of five Chinese stock companies on the preliminary list that did not meet the current requirements, which increased investors' worries and panic about the subsequent delisting risks.</p><p>In addition, the local global dollar liquidity shock and the need to reduce holdings caused by the freezing of Russian positions may also have an impact, but it is estimated that they are not the most dominant factors. On the one hand, the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine led to global asset fluctuations, which once made the market worry that it might trigger global liquidity tensions, which in turn caused emerging markets to suffer indiscriminate redemptions (similar to the epidemic in March 2020). However, the major US dollar liquidity indicators we monitored were not unusually tight. On the other hand, the need to be forced to reduce Chinese assets due to the freezing of Russian positions does not rule out part of the explanation. Tracking the overall MSCI Emerging Index of $1.8 trillion AUM (as of mid-2021) corresponds to Russia's 1.5% weighting, with a scale of about $27 billion, but may not be the most dominant factor, the evidence is that passive funds continue to flow in under the EPFR caliber.</p><p>Shareholding structure of Hong Kong stocks? Foreign capital is still dominant, and the southward direction is constantly improving</p><p>Overseas investors remain the main force in the Hong Kong market. From all kinds of clues, we can see that overseas investors are still the most important participants in the Hong Kong stock market. First of all, it can be seen from the Spot Market Trading Research Survey 2019 released by Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020 that overseas investors still dominate the Hong Kong market, accounting for ~43% of transactions. At the same time, through the intermediary shareholding data provided by CCASS of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it can be seen that 11.6% of the market value of all underlying intermediaries in Hong Kong Stock Connect comes from Chinese intermediaries, and international intermediaries and local intermediaries in Hong Kong account for 43.7% and 44.7% respectively (including the shares held by depositary banks of secondary listed companies, which are not necessarily circulated in the Hong Kong stock market). Assuming that under normal circumstances, foreign-funded institutions prefer to choose international investment banks as intermediaries, it can be seen that overseas funds are still the main force in the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>But the capital of going south keeps rising. Since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect in November, 2014, the proportion of southbound funds' shareholding and transactions has been growing. At present, the southbound funds have flowed into HK$ 2.28 trillion, and the stock market value accounts for 12.2% of the investable scope of Hong Kong Stock Connect. However, because southbound capital transactions are more active, the transaction proportion is as high as about 20%. Further inside the southbound funds, the shareholding proportion of Public Offering of Fund has also increased year by year, from 6.9% in 2018 to 21.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 (\"Public Offering of 4Q21 Hong Kong Stock Positions: Positions Continue to Fall but Turning Back\"). In terms of shareholding preference, southbound funds prefer the new economy compared with overseas funds.</p><p>Follow-up outlook: The panic selling of liquidity shock has basically ended, and the valuation repair has gradually entered; Subsequent efforts to stabilize growth, regulatory trends and the situation between Russia and Ukraine are key</p><p>Going forward, we expect the market to be repaired in three steps. The first is the repair of liquidity shocks. Thanks to the stability signal of the Financial Commission's policy in mid-March and the recent positive progress of Sino-US regulatory cooperation, the market rebounded from the bottom and gradually stabilized, and the panic selling under the impact of liquidity basically ended. However, the subsequent situation between Russia and Ukraine is still worthy of attention. The second step is to return to the valuation repair logic at the beginning of the year. This situation is similar to that in early 2016 and early 2019, that is, the profit expectation and growth have not yet picked up, but the southbound capital inflow under the steady growth expectation and loose liquidity environment promotes the valuation repair. The third step is to see whether the fundamentals can stabilize to provide further support, and pay attention to the progress of subsequent policies for stable growth and related regulatory measures.</p><p>In the short term, we prefer the market to maintain range shocks, mainly considering that: 1) the regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical situation are still ongoing, which may make it difficult for some overseas funds to re-inflow soon; 2) The domestic epidemic spread is still on the rise; 3) The strength and timing of the policy of steady growth remain to be verified; 4) The proportion of short selling is still high. However, there are no shortage of positive factors in the market, such as the valuation level is already quite attractive; More enterprises are planning to expand share repurchases or issue high Dividend; The high point of the local epidemic in Hong Kong is gradually easing in the past. Overall, we believe that the medium-term opportunities of the Hong Kong stock market still outweigh the risks, and domestic policies play a key role in enhancing investors' risk appetite. In terms of allocation, we believe that low valuation and high Dividend targets and high-quality growth stocks with large early adjustment will provide better allocation value, the so-called \"dumbbell\" strategy; At the same time, local consumer and financial stocks in Hong Kong also deserve attention under the background of improving epidemic situation in Hong Kong.</p><p>Chart 1: Although the market correction is obvious, southbound funds have flowed against the trend since entering 2022, while northbound funds have flowed out in large numbers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8189c8b3c7d8e295f48176b42a9a24f9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 2: Southbound funds' preference for the new economy is increasingly pronounced</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196047788471f18a0d70b019fc7c9c17\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 3: Under the EPFR caliber, overseas active funds are under great outflow pressure recently, while passive funds still accelerate their inflow</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/449b3df44551bd1f771513af9a2626a3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, Wind Information, CICC Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 4: Since March, overseas active funds have continuously flowed out of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stock markets, while southbound funds have still climbed against the trend</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988e4bea40d30df4d6bff1634043f62f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, Wind Information, CICC Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 5: Under the BoP caliber, the daily outflow of equity assets in China reached a new high since 2005</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fac87d5ee1dbb5893c31bcac1b719d8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: IIF, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 6: From the data of foreign-funded institutions' holdings of overseas Chinese-funded stocks in the total market value, it has also declined recently</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ec97713338e1eef930ac693320fc34\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 7: Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund's Chinese equity holdings and overall market capitalization both declined in 2021</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68c51dcd25e19460ea90ca7ef88d124\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Norges Bank Annual Report, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 8: Overseas active funds investing in emerging markets (EPFR caliber) are currently underweighted in overseas Chinese stocks</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3271f4e2b821f7fe5c7cca85e7917e69\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 9: Chinese stocks account for about 27% of the current MSCI Emerging Markets Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82af86acaf88f84f8b07badb1d47798\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 10: From the perspective of intermediary shareholding of Hong Kong Stock Connect, international intermediary shareholding can currently account for 43.7% of the overall market value</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5741358b8743c6f21a9b45070868ccf0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 11: The gap between overseas and local transactions in Hong Kong stock market is gradually widening</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d119606b52bc2ab28ef031e36a6b8afc\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: HKEx, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 12: The proportion of Chinese funds in overseas transactions is increasing year by year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8716c80fec883f57da683517474970\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: HKEx, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 13: Recent pressure of Hong Kong dollar depreciation against US dollar is obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29dc0f843043477aa704d84c972251b0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 14: A/H premium has returned to a high level after a slight decline at the beginning of the year, and is basically more than one time the standard deviation of the long-term historical average</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06ed1e7357ba263e08d9b3b7ae9f8a1\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 15: Accelerating share buybacks tend to signal a likely stabilizing market rally in the medium term</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4fc4083f604a540a59bea91b3c54ac9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 16: The proportion of short selling transactions in Hong Kong stock market is still at a high level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6785e9bcd007e4c2f28150bd8b20822e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 17: The percentage of Hong Kong Stock Connect turnover to Hong Kong stock turnover is increasing year by year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27075e294276edd4f3724d715aac7009\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 18: The market value of mainland public offering of funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect accounts for about 21.3%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9443883a6080e50b7cc796e505f92a3e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sources: Bloomberg Information, FactSet, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 19: The market behaves after a sharp drop</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f1ada916911be4ac30254f4d8bb561\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: Who's selling? Looking at the Recent Fluctuation of Hong Kong Stocks from the Capital Side</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: Who's selling? Looking at the Recent Fluctuation of Hong Kong Stocks from the Capital Side\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-06 08:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In mid-March, there were obvious fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market and the China concept stock market, and its intensity indicated that there may be liquidity shock to a certain extent. Fortunately, in mid-March, the stability maintenance signal of the Financial Committee stabilized the market sentiment in time, avoided the further amplification of panic selling caused by liquidity shock, and the market also rebounded. However, it is still worth exploring. The question is, who's selling? What is the reason? Is there any pressure in the follow-up? Discussing these problems is also of reference significance for judging the follow-up market trend.</p><p>Who's selling? The overall inflow of southbound funds may be the main reason for overseas funds, especially active funds</p><p>The existing data caliber is incomplete (for example, the capital flow of EPFR only covers investors such as \"funds\") and the objective reality that the shareholding of HKEx is not penetrating, which makes it extremely difficult to try to grasp the overall investor structure of Hong Kong stocks and the changes of high-frequency capital flow. To solve this problem, we try to combine the \"puzzle\" of macro (Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, Hong Kong M3, BOP portfolio investment), capital flow (interconnection southbound funds, EPFR capital flow), CCASS shareholding of HKEx (intermediary shareholding), fund position and company shareholder information (such as SEC 13F, company shareholders, fund announcement) into a relatively comprehensive information. Combining the latest changes, we found that:</p><p>Southbound funds: inflows against the trend in turmoil, until it weakened in the near future. During the turmoil of Hong Kong stocks in mid-to-early March, funds going south still flowed in, and even accelerated against the trend. Except for the slight outflow on March 17th, from February 23rd, when the market fluctuated, to March 23rd, when the market stabilized and rebounded, southbound funds maintained the inflow almost every day and continued to accelerate, with an overall inflow of HK$63.4 billion, accounting for two-thirds of the overall inflow of HK$97.3 billion since the beginning of the year. The specific flow direction also shows the characteristics of adding positions against the trend, such as new economic leaders with large declines, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Wait is flowing into the main force, while Sunny Optical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601939\">China Construction Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a>More outflow. Therefore, it can be seen that the funds going south are not dominant in this round of fluctuations.</p><p>Overseas funds: passive capital inflow and active capital outflow. Obviously, overseas capital outflow is the main reason, among which active capital outflow is the dominant reason, which is reflected in: 1) Under the EPFR caliber, active funds flowed out of A shares, Hong Kong stocks and China from the end of February to mid-March, with a total scale of 4.57 billion USD; However, passive funds still inflowed $9.05 billion in the same period; 2) A large outflow of northbound funds (~68 billion RMB during the most volatile period in the first two weeks, second only to 87 billion RMB during the epidemic turmoil in March 2020); 3) IIF's estimated outflow of China's stock portfolio under the BOP caliber in the first half of March was USD 10.5 billion, a new high since the data was available in 2005; 4) The weakening of Hong Kong dollar and RMB under the background of no sharp appreciation of the US dollar also illustrates the pressure of some capital outflows. In addition, from the shareholding structure: 1) In early March, among the CCASS shares of HKEx, the shares of foreign intermediaries decreased the most (1.07ppt), Chinese intermediaries rose slightly (0.10ppt), and local intermediaries in Hong Kong rose the most (0.97ppt); 2) Based on the summary of quarterly information of the top 100 overseas Chinese stocks by market capitalization by nearly 6,000 foreign institutional investors, we found that the shareholding of foreign institutions has decreased from approximately 21.2% at the end of 2021 to 19.8% at present; 3) Some overseas institutions prompt possible changes in positions through reports and announcements.</p><p>Why does it flow out? Collateral risks and investment appropriateness concerns under geopolitical risks, internal and external regulatory uncertainties</p><p>We believe that the reason for the large and concentrated external capital outflow may be related to factors such as associated risks and investment appropriateness concerns under the continuous geopolitical tension, as well as internal and external regulatory uncertainties. In particular,</p><p>The joint sanctions caused by the continuous tension between Russia and Ukraine and concerns about investment appropriateness may cause some overseas investors to reduce their holdings. In mid-March, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced that it had removed a Chinese stock in Hong Kong from its portfolio [1], coinciding with the tension between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns that more similar measures could follow. As the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense, concerns that China or some Chinese enterprises may be subject to joint and several sanctions, or fears that they are not in line with investment philosophy may prompt some investment institutions, especially long-term and large investment institutions, to evaluate the exposure of Chinese assets.</p><p>The regulation of Chinese stocks and the variables of Sino-US relations have also caused some investors to worry. For example, some overseas pension and large investment institutions have repeatedly mentioned their concerns about Sino-US trade friction and other factors in their reports. In early March, according to the detailed rules of the Foreign Company Accountability Law, the SEC put the first batch of five Chinese stock companies on the preliminary list that did not meet the current requirements, which increased investors' worries and panic about the subsequent delisting risks.</p><p>In addition, the local global dollar liquidity shock and the need to reduce holdings caused by the freezing of Russian positions may also have an impact, but it is estimated that they are not the most dominant factors. On the one hand, the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine led to global asset fluctuations, which once made the market worry that it might trigger global liquidity tensions, which in turn caused emerging markets to suffer indiscriminate redemptions (similar to the epidemic in March 2020). However, the major US dollar liquidity indicators we monitored were not unusually tight. On the other hand, the need to be forced to reduce Chinese assets due to the freezing of Russian positions does not rule out part of the explanation. Tracking the overall MSCI Emerging Index of $1.8 trillion AUM (as of mid-2021) corresponds to Russia's 1.5% weighting, with a scale of about $27 billion, but may not be the most dominant factor, the evidence is that passive funds continue to flow in under the EPFR caliber.</p><p>Shareholding structure of Hong Kong stocks? Foreign capital is still dominant, and the southward direction is constantly improving</p><p>Overseas investors remain the main force in the Hong Kong market. From all kinds of clues, we can see that overseas investors are still the most important participants in the Hong Kong stock market. First of all, it can be seen from the Spot Market Trading Research Survey 2019 released by Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020 that overseas investors still dominate the Hong Kong market, accounting for ~43% of transactions. At the same time, through the intermediary shareholding data provided by CCASS of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it can be seen that 11.6% of the market value of all underlying intermediaries in Hong Kong Stock Connect comes from Chinese intermediaries, and international intermediaries and local intermediaries in Hong Kong account for 43.7% and 44.7% respectively (including the shares held by depositary banks of secondary listed companies, which are not necessarily circulated in the Hong Kong stock market). Assuming that under normal circumstances, foreign-funded institutions prefer to choose international investment banks as intermediaries, it can be seen that overseas funds are still the main force in the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>But the capital of going south keeps rising. Since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect in November, 2014, the proportion of southbound funds' shareholding and transactions has been growing. At present, the southbound funds have flowed into HK$ 2.28 trillion, and the stock market value accounts for 12.2% of the investable scope of Hong Kong Stock Connect. However, because southbound capital transactions are more active, the transaction proportion is as high as about 20%. Further inside the southbound funds, the shareholding proportion of Public Offering of Fund has also increased year by year, from 6.9% in 2018 to 21.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 (\"Public Offering of 4Q21 Hong Kong Stock Positions: Positions Continue to Fall but Turning Back\"). In terms of shareholding preference, southbound funds prefer the new economy compared with overseas funds.</p><p>Follow-up outlook: The panic selling of liquidity shock has basically ended, and the valuation repair has gradually entered; Subsequent efforts to stabilize growth, regulatory trends and the situation between Russia and Ukraine are key</p><p>Going forward, we expect the market to be repaired in three steps. The first is the repair of liquidity shocks. Thanks to the stability signal of the Financial Commission's policy in mid-March and the recent positive progress of Sino-US regulatory cooperation, the market rebounded from the bottom and gradually stabilized, and the panic selling under the impact of liquidity basically ended. However, the subsequent situation between Russia and Ukraine is still worthy of attention. The second step is to return to the valuation repair logic at the beginning of the year. This situation is similar to that in early 2016 and early 2019, that is, the profit expectation and growth have not yet picked up, but the southbound capital inflow under the steady growth expectation and loose liquidity environment promotes the valuation repair. The third step is to see whether the fundamentals can stabilize to provide further support, and pay attention to the progress of subsequent policies for stable growth and related regulatory measures.</p><p>In the short term, we prefer the market to maintain range shocks, mainly considering that: 1) the regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical situation are still ongoing, which may make it difficult for some overseas funds to re-inflow soon; 2) The domestic epidemic spread is still on the rise; 3) The strength and timing of the policy of steady growth remain to be verified; 4) The proportion of short selling is still high. However, there are no shortage of positive factors in the market, such as the valuation level is already quite attractive; More enterprises are planning to expand share repurchases or issue high Dividend; The high point of the local epidemic in Hong Kong is gradually easing in the past. Overall, we believe that the medium-term opportunities of the Hong Kong stock market still outweigh the risks, and domestic policies play a key role in enhancing investors' risk appetite. In terms of allocation, we believe that low valuation and high Dividend targets and high-quality growth stocks with large early adjustment will provide better allocation value, the so-called \"dumbbell\" strategy; At the same time, local consumer and financial stocks in Hong Kong also deserve attention under the background of improving epidemic situation in Hong Kong.</p><p>Chart 1: Although the market correction is obvious, southbound funds have flowed against the trend since entering 2022, while northbound funds have flowed out in large numbers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8189c8b3c7d8e295f48176b42a9a24f9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 2: Southbound funds' preference for the new economy is increasingly pronounced</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196047788471f18a0d70b019fc7c9c17\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 3: Under the EPFR caliber, overseas active funds are under great outflow pressure recently, while passive funds still accelerate their inflow</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/449b3df44551bd1f771513af9a2626a3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, Wind Information, CICC Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 4: Since March, overseas active funds have continuously flowed out of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stock markets, while southbound funds have still climbed against the trend</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988e4bea40d30df4d6bff1634043f62f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, Wind Information, CICC Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 5: Under the BoP caliber, the daily outflow of equity assets in China reached a new high since 2005</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fac87d5ee1dbb5893c31bcac1b719d8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: IIF, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 6: From the data of foreign-funded institutions' holdings of overseas Chinese-funded stocks in the total market value, it has also declined recently</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ec97713338e1eef930ac693320fc34\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 7: Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund's Chinese equity holdings and overall market capitalization both declined in 2021</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68c51dcd25e19460ea90ca7ef88d124\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Norges Bank Annual Report, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 8: Overseas active funds investing in emerging markets (EPFR caliber) are currently underweighted in overseas Chinese stocks</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3271f4e2b821f7fe5c7cca85e7917e69\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 9: Chinese stocks account for about 27% of the current MSCI Emerging Markets Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82af86acaf88f84f8b07badb1d47798\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 10: From the perspective of intermediary shareholding of Hong Kong Stock Connect, international intermediary shareholding can currently account for 43.7% of the overall market value</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5741358b8743c6f21a9b45070868ccf0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 11: The gap between overseas and local transactions in Hong Kong stock market is gradually widening</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d119606b52bc2ab28ef031e36a6b8afc\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: HKEx, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 12: The proportion of Chinese funds in overseas transactions is increasing year by year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8716c80fec883f57da683517474970\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: HKEx, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 13: Recent pressure of Hong Kong dollar depreciation against US dollar is obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29dc0f843043477aa704d84c972251b0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 14: A/H premium has returned to a high level after a slight decline at the beginning of the year, and is basically more than one time the standard deviation of the long-term historical average</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06ed1e7357ba263e08d9b3b7ae9f8a1\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 15: Accelerating share buybacks tend to signal a likely stabilizing market rally in the medium term</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4fc4083f604a540a59bea91b3c54ac9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 16: The proportion of short selling transactions in Hong Kong stock market is still at a high level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6785e9bcd007e4c2f28150bd8b20822e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 17: The percentage of Hong Kong Stock Connect turnover to Hong Kong stock turnover is increasing year by year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27075e294276edd4f3724d715aac7009\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 18: The market value of mainland public offering of funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect accounts for about 21.3%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9443883a6080e50b7cc796e505f92a3e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sources: Bloomberg Information, FactSet, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 19: The market behaves after a sharp drop</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f1ada916911be4ac30254f4d8bb561\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-04-06/doc-imcwiwst0119750.shtml\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-04-06/doc-imcwiwst0119750.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225536464","content_text":"3月中旬港股和中概股市场一度出现明显波动，其剧烈程度表明一定程度上可能存在流动性的冲击。庆幸的是，3月中旬金融委维稳信号及时稳住市场情绪，避免流动性冲击导致的恐慌抛售进一步放大，市场也应声反弹。不过，依然值得探究问题是，谁在卖出？原因何在？后续是否还有压力？探讨这些问题对于判断后续市场走向也有参考意义。谁在卖出？南向资金整体流入，海外资金特别是主动型资金可能是主因现有数据口径不全（如EPFR资金流向只涵盖“基金”这一类投资者）和港交所持股不穿透的客观现实，使得试图掌握港股全局投资者结构和高频资金流向变化变得异常困难。针对这一问题，我们尝试从宏观（港币汇率、香港M3、BOP口径组合投资）、资金流向（互联互通南向资金、EPFR资金流向）、港交所CCASS持股（中介机构持股）、基金持仓和公司股东信息（如SEC 13F、公司股东、基金公告）等各层次的“拼图”，组合成相对全面的信息。综合最新变化，我们发现：南向资金：动荡中逆势流入，直到近期有所转弱。3月中上旬港股动荡期间，南下资金依然流入，甚至逆势加速。除3月17日小幅流出外，自2月23日市场波动开始至3月23日市场企稳反弹的这一个月内，南向资金几乎每日维持流入且持续加速，整体流入规模634亿港元，占年初以来整体流入973亿港元的三分之二。具体流向也呈现出逆势加仓的特征，例如跌幅较大的新经济龙头，如腾讯、美团-W、李宁、药明生物和快手-W等是流入主力，而舜宇光学，建设银行、长城汽车和碧桂园服务流出较多。因此可以看出，本轮波动中南下资金并非主导。海外资金：被动资金流入、主动资金流出。显然，海外资金流出是主因，其中又以主动型资金流出主导，体现为：1）EPFR口径下主动资金2月底到3月中大幅流出A股、港股和中概，总规模45.7亿美元；但同期被动资金仍流入90.5亿美元；2）北向资金大举流出 （前两周最波动期间流出~680亿人民币，幅度仅次于2020年3月疫情动荡期间的870亿人民币）；3）IIF估算的3月上半月BOP口径下中国股票组合资金流出规模为105亿美元，创2005年有数据以来新高；4）港币和人民币在美元没有大幅升值的背景下走弱也侧面说明了部分资金流出的压力。此外，从持股结构上：1）3月上旬，港交所CCASS持股中，外资中介持股降幅最大（1.07ppt），中资中介小幅抬升（0.10ppt），香港本地中介抬升最大（0.97ppt）；2）基于近6，000家外资机构投资者对市值前100的海外中资股持股季度信息的汇总，我们发现外资机构的持股占比从2021年底的约21.2%已经下降至当前19.8%；3）部分海外机构通过报告和公告等形式提示可能的持仓变化。为何流出？地缘风险下的连带风险和投资适当性担忧、内外部监管不确定性之所以出现大幅且集中的外部资金流出，我们认为，可能与地缘局势持续紧张下的连带风险和投资适当性担忧、以及内外部监管不确定性等因素有关。具体而言，俄乌局势持续紧张引发的连带制裁以及投资适当性担忧，可能使得部分海外投资者减持。3月中挪威主权财富基金公告，将一家港股中资股从其投资组合中剔除[1]，恰逢俄乌局势紧张，引发了市场担忧更多类似举措可能接踵而至。随着俄乌局势持续紧张，对中国或中国部分企业可能遭受连带制裁、或者担心不符合投资理念的担忧都可能促使一些投资机构、特别是偏长期和大型的投资机构评估中国资产的敞口。中概股监管和中美关系变数也引发了一部分投资者的担忧，例如一些海外养老和大型投资机构报告中多次提及对于中美贸易摩擦等因素的关注。3月上旬SEC依据外国公司问责法细则将首批5家中概股公司放入到不符合当前要求的初步名单上，加大了投资者对于后续退市风险的担忧和恐慌情绪。除此之外，局部的全球美元流动性冲击和因俄罗斯持仓被冻结引发的减持需要也可能有影响，但估计不是最主导因素。一方面，俄乌局势升级导致全球资产波动使得市场一度担心可能引发全球范围的流动性紧张，进而使得新兴市场遭受无差别赎回（类似于2020年3月疫情期间），但我们监测到的主要美元流动性指标都没有到异常紧张的程度。另一方面，因俄罗斯持仓冻结而需要被迫减持中国资产也不排除解释一部分。追踪MSCI新兴指数整体1.8万亿美元AUM（截至2021年中）对应俄罗斯1.5%的权重，规模约为270亿美元，但可能不是最主要因素，证据是EPFR口径下被动资金继续流入。港股持股结构？外资仍是主导，南向不断提升海外投资者依然是香港市场的主力。从各种蛛丝马迹中我们可以看出目前海外投资者仍然是港股市场的最重要参与者。首先，港交所2020年发布的《现货市场交易研究调查2019》中可以看出，海外投资者在香港市场依然占据主导，成交占比~43%。与此同时，通过港交所CCASS提供的中介持股数据，可以看到港股通全部标的中介持股市值中，11.6%来自中资中介，国际中介以及香港本地中介分别占到43.7%与44.7%（包含二次上市公司存托行持有股份，不一定于港股市场流通）。假设一般情况下外资机构更多偏向选择国际投行作为中介的话，可以看出海外资金仍是港股市场主力。但南下资金不断抬升。2014年11月港股通开通以来，南下资金持股与成交占比都不断壮大，目前南下资金已累计流入2.28万亿港币，持股市值占到港股通可投资范围的12.2%。不过由于南向资金交易更为活跃，因此成交占比高达20%左右。进一步到南向资金内部，公募基金持股占比也逐年提升，从2018年的6.9%大幅提升至2021年四季度的21.5%（《公募4Q21港股持仓：持仓继续回落但转机渐现》）。持股偏好上，相比海外资金，南向资金更偏好新经济。后续展望：流动性冲击的恐慌抛售基本结束，逐步进入估值修复；后续稳增长力度、监管动向及俄乌局势是关键往后看，我们预计市场的修复可能分三步走。首先是流动性冲击的修复。得益于3月中旬金融委政策维稳信号和近期中美监管合作的积极进展，市场从底部反弹逐步企稳，流动性冲击下的恐慌抛售基本结束，但后续俄乌局势依然值得关注。第二步是重回年初的估值修复逻辑，这一情形与2016年初和2019年初较为类似，即盈利预期和增长尚未回升，但稳增长预期和流动性宽松环境下南向资金流入推动估值修复。第三步看基本面是否能够企稳提供进一步支撑，关注后续稳增长政策进展和相关监管措施。短期内，我们倾向于市场维持区间震荡，主要考虑到：1）监管不确定性和地缘局势仍在持续，或使得部分海外基金可能难以很快重新流入；2）国内疫情传播仍然处于上升趋势；3）稳增长政策的力度和时点仍待验证；4）卖空占比仍然居高。不过，市场也并不乏积极的因素，如估值水平已经具有相当吸引力；更多企业正筹划扩大股票回购力度或发放高额股息；香港本地疫情高点正在过去逐步缓解。整体而言，我们认为港股市场的中期机会仍然大于风险，国内政策对于提升投资者风险偏好起到关键性作用。配置方面，我们认为低估值高股息标的和前期调整幅度较大的优质成长股将提供更好的配置价值，所谓“哑铃型”策略；同时香港本地消费和金融股在香港疫情改善背景下也值得关注。图表1：虽然市场回调明显，但南向资金进入2022年以来逆势流入，而北向资金大举流出资料来源：万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表2：南向资金对于新经济的偏好愈发显著资料来源：万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表3：EPFR口径下，海外主动资金近期流出压力较大，而被动资金却依然加速流入资料来源：EPFR， 万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表4：三月以来海外主动型基金分别连续流出港股以及中概股市场，而南向资金却依然逆势攀升资料来源：EPFR， 万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表5：BoP口径下，中国权益资产日度流出规模创2005年以来新高资料来源：IIF，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表6：从外资机构对于海外中资股持股占总市值数据来看近期同样有所下降资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表7：挪威主权财富基金中国股票持股数量与整体持股市值在2021年均有所下降资料来源：Norges Bank年报， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表8：投资于新兴市场的海外主动型基金（EPFR口径）目前已经低配海外中资股资料来源：EPFR， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表9：当前MSCI新兴市场指数中，中资股占比约为27%资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表10：从港股通标的中介持股层面来看，国际中介持股当前能占到整体市值的43.7%资料来源：万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表11：港股市场海外和本地交易额占比差距逐渐拉大资料来源：港交所，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表12：海外交易额中，中国资金占比逐年提升资料来源：港交所，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表13：近期港元对美元贬值压力明显资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表14：A/H溢价自年初小幅回落后重回高位，基本处于长期历史均值一倍标准差以上资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表15：股票回购加速往往预示中期市场可能企稳反弹资料来源：彭博资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表16：港股市场卖空成交占比仍处于高位资料来源：彭博资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表17：港股通成交额占港股成交额比例逐年提升资料来源：彭博资讯， 万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表18：港股通中内地公募基金持股市值占比约为21.3%资料来源：彭博资讯， FactSet， 万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表19：市场急大跌后的表现资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止至2022年4月1日","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"870436":0,"QNETCN":0,"HSI":0,"UCmain":0,"HSTECH":0,"TTTN":0,"HSCEI":0,"CNHmain":0,"HSCCI":0,"CYB":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}