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2022-11-29

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Opening | U.S. stocks mixed, Bilibili rises more than 13%

2022-11-08

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2022-11-07

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2022-10-09

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Are American "new forces" having poor quality control? Rivian recalls almost all cars sold

2022-10-06

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2022-09-26

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2022-12-26

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Goldman Sachs' top ten predictions for the US economy in 2022 were correct seven and a half times.

2022-09-22

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Full text of the Federal Reserve's decision: review: The finish line of tightening

2022-09-11

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Another "gold-buying frenzy" has emerged! "A difficult summer for gold," yet giants are making their moves!

2022-09-08

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Could the iPhone 14 help Apple return to its $3 trillion market capitalization?

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tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a 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11:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Faraday Future: FF91 Phase 2 delivery postponed to August this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184277979","media":"IT之家","summary":"这一次的延期可能会导致融资不稳定情况。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Yangzai</p><p>Faraday Future announced yesterday that the delivery time for the second phase of the FF912.0 Futurist Alliance \"FOP Co-Creation Delivery\" has been updated from the end of the second quarter of 2023 to August 2023.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a5a30839b03a61a16909eccb127733\" alt=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" title=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"660\"/><span>▲ Image source: Faraday Future official website</span></p><p><strong>▲ Image source: Faraday Future official website</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to reports, Faraday Future stated that the final delivery time of its first model, the FF91, has been delayed due to \"time constraints from one supplier\" and the completion time of the \"additional system testing\" part of the vehicle's \"enhanced safety test\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to previous official information, the FF91 is more \"unique\" than traditional automakers in terms of delivery. Users need to pay $309,000 (approximately RMB 2.2016 million) in full and then receive vehicle usage training in advance in order to \"enjoy the qualification to drive the vehicle as a futuristic product pavilion\" in the future. At this stage, users cannot actually get their actual vehicles and need to wait for the \"second phase of FPO co-creation delivery period\", which is August 2023.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4188586ad932136f3b5deec5c38949\" alt=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" title=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"705\"/><span>▲ Image source: Faraday Future official website</span></p><p><strong>▲ Image source: Faraday Future official website</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faraday Future emphasized that the company's enhanced safety testing is unrelated to the requirements of the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although the official statement is that delivery will be made in August, due to the precedent of Faraday Future's FF91 delays several times, this delay may cause temporary instability in financing, so the specific delivery date remains to be determined.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"ithome","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Faraday Future: FF91 Phase 2 delivery postponed to August this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFaraday Future: FF91 Phase 2 delivery postponed to August this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IT之家</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-18 11:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Yangzai</p><p>Faraday Future announced yesterday that the delivery time for the second phase of the FF912.0 Futurist Alliance \"FOP Co-Creation Delivery\" has been updated from the end of the second quarter of 2023 to August 2023.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a5a30839b03a61a16909eccb127733\" alt=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" title=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"660\"/><span>▲ Image source: Faraday Future official website</span></p><p><strong>▲ Image source: Faraday Future official website</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to reports, Faraday Future stated that the final delivery time of its first model, the FF91, has been delayed due to \"time constraints from one supplier\" and the completion time of the \"additional system testing\" part of the vehicle's \"enhanced safety test\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to previous official information, the FF91 is more \"unique\" than traditional automakers in terms of delivery. Users need to pay $309,000 (approximately RMB 2.2016 million) in full and then receive vehicle usage training in advance in order to \"enjoy the qualification to drive the vehicle as a futuristic product pavilion\" in the future. At this stage, users cannot actually get their actual vehicles and need to wait for the \"second phase of FPO co-creation delivery period\", which is August 2023.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4188586ad932136f3b5deec5c38949\" alt=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" title=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"705\"/><span>▲ Image source: Faraday Future official website</span></p><p><strong>▲ Image source: Faraday Future official website</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faraday Future emphasized that the company's enhanced safety testing is unrelated to the requirements of the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although the official statement is that delivery will be made in August, due to the precedent of Faraday Future's FF91 delays several times, this delay may cause temporary instability in financing, so the specific delivery date remains to be determined.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.ithome.com/0/700/572.htm\">IT之家</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da02b327d14fbb528d302ef2b9995bf1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.ithome.com/0/700/572.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184277979","content_text":"作者：漾仔法拉第未来昨日宣布，FF912.0FuturistAlliance第二阶段“FOP共创交付”交付时间从2023年第二季度末更新为2023年8月。▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网▲图源法拉第未来官网据悉，法拉第未来表示，旗下首款车型FF91由于“一家供应商的时间限制”，以及受车辆“强化安全测试”中“额外系统测试”环节完成时间影响，导致最终交付时间有所推迟。根据官方此前信息，在交付方面上，FF91相对于传统车企更具“独到之处”，用户需要在支付30.9万美元（约220.16万元人民币）全款车款后，事先接受车辆使用培训，才能在未来“享受到作为未来主义产品馆驾驶该车辆的资格”，而在这一阶段，实际上用户还无法拿到自己的实车，需要等待“第二阶段FPO共创交付时期”，也就是2023年8月。▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网▲图源法拉第未来官网法拉第未来强调，公司的强化安全测试与美国联邦机动车安全标准（FMVSS）要求的内容无关。虽然目前官方称将会在8月交付，但因法拉第未来FF91几度跳票先例，这一次的延期可能会导致融资出现短暂的不稳定情况，因此具体交付日期还有待判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FFIE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188687670493304,"gmtCreate":1687091846754,"gmtModify":1687091850949,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188687670493304","repostId":"1156309203","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156309203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687090816,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156309203?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-18 20:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"rate hike \"ineffective\"? US stocks have rebounded, and the dollar has also fallen back.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156309203","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“四十年来最激进加息周期”如同没有发生！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Looking back at the moment when the Federal Reserve paused rate hike in June, we can see a remarkable scene: the performance of the US stock market and the US dollar has remained almost unchanged compared to when the rate hike cycle began in early 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083e237d5166eb06a4af3db441f84982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/></p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The market index traveled back to 15 months ago.</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By the close of trading on Friday, the S&P 500 had posted its fifth consecutive week of gains, closing at 4,409 points. When the Federal Reserve began its current rate hike cycle 15 months ago, the S&P 500 closed at 4358 points. The current S&P 500 index is higher than it was during the first rate hike on March 16, 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7359049e4467a9f0aff05065fa3d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1415\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Generally speaking, the Federal Reserve's rate hike tightening of liquidity, while not a direct factor leading to a bear market, can also lead to a correction in the overall market.</strong>The sharp correction in the US stock market, especially technology stocks, in 2022 can confirm this. Following the spring rate hike, U.S. stocks were sold off and plunged into a bear market due to high inflation and rising borrowing costs, and recession predictions spread throughout the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, US stocks rebounded sharply in the first half of this year, driven by strong corporate earnings. Before the earnings season began at the beginning of the year, Wall Street analysts had already significantly lowered their expectations. However, after companies released their earnings reports one after another, strong performance offset the pessimistic sentiment.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to FactSet data, as of the end of May, nearly 80% of U.S. listed companies reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, a two-year high.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, driven by the ChatGPT craze, major tech stocks such as the Seven Sisters (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Google) continued to rise, driving up the index. In the first half of this year, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded, entering a technical bull market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently,<strong>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained a hawkish stance after the June policy meeting, the future path of monetary policy is now highly certain. The market generally expects that the rate hike is nearing its end and the Fed's tightening stance can no longer suppress the market's upward momentum.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg quoted experts as saying,<strong>Over the next 6-12 months, the importance of the Federal Reserve will decrease, while other global drivers and fundamental factors will play a greater role.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, according to Citigroup's model, the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock market has decreased from 83% to 71% since March, the largest three-month drop since 2009.</p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">the US Dollar Index fell in tandem</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, the strength of the US dollar has also weakened, with the US Dollar Index currently trading near its April 2022 level, down nearly 10% from its all-time high.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933da88b6af1b7ce7a54fb42e84aa2ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The the US Dollar Index, which measures the volatility of the US dollar against six major currencies, is sensitive to interest rate policy and is usually positively correlated with interest rate levels, i.e., rate hike pushes the US Dollar Index higher and vice versa.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This can be observed in the current rate hike cycle, which has lasted 15 months and accumulated 500 basis points. The Federal Reserve began rate hike in March 2022, and then aggressively raised rate hike by 75 basis points four times between June and September. the US Dollar Index rose from approximately 102 in early June to approximately 114 at the end of September, a cumulative increase of over 11%. During this period, other currencies faced enormous depreciation pressure. It wasn't until the recent resolution of the debt ceiling crisis and the clear signal from the Federal Reserve to suspend rate hike that the US Dollar Index finally retreated.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently, the market expects two more rate hike of 25 basis points or 50 basis points before the end of this year. However, the previously widely expected recession has not yet occurred. The U.S. economy appears to have withstood the impact of rate hike, the labor market is resilient, and corporate balance sheets are mostly healthy.<strong>In their latest report, Bank of America strategists upgraded their outlook for the U.S. stock market and are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook. They predict that even if a recession occurs, it will be relatively mild.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>rate hike \"ineffective\"? US stocks have rebounded, and the dollar has also fallen back.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nrate hike \"ineffective\"? US stocks have rebounded, and the dollar has also fallen back.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-18 20:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Looking back at the moment when the Federal Reserve paused rate hike in June, we can see a remarkable scene: the performance of the US stock market and the US dollar has remained almost unchanged compared to when the rate hike cycle began in early 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083e237d5166eb06a4af3db441f84982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/></p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The market index traveled back to 15 months ago.</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By the close of trading on Friday, the S&P 500 had posted its fifth consecutive week of gains, closing at 4,409 points. When the Federal Reserve began its current rate hike cycle 15 months ago, the S&P 500 closed at 4358 points. The current S&P 500 index is higher than it was during the first rate hike on March 16, 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7359049e4467a9f0aff05065fa3d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1415\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Generally speaking, the Federal Reserve's rate hike tightening of liquidity, while not a direct factor leading to a bear market, can also lead to a correction in the overall market.</strong>The sharp correction in the US stock market, especially technology stocks, in 2022 can confirm this. Following the spring rate hike, U.S. stocks were sold off and plunged into a bear market due to high inflation and rising borrowing costs, and recession predictions spread throughout the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, US stocks rebounded sharply in the first half of this year, driven by strong corporate earnings. Before the earnings season began at the beginning of the year, Wall Street analysts had already significantly lowered their expectations. However, after companies released their earnings reports one after another, strong performance offset the pessimistic sentiment.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to FactSet data, as of the end of May, nearly 80% of U.S. listed companies reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, a two-year high.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, driven by the ChatGPT craze, major tech stocks such as the Seven Sisters (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Google) continued to rise, driving up the index. In the first half of this year, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded, entering a technical bull market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently,<strong>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained a hawkish stance after the June policy meeting, the future path of monetary policy is now highly certain. The market generally expects that the rate hike is nearing its end and the Fed's tightening stance can no longer suppress the market's upward momentum.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg quoted experts as saying,<strong>Over the next 6-12 months, the importance of the Federal Reserve will decrease, while other global drivers and fundamental factors will play a greater role.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, according to Citigroup's model, the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock market has decreased from 83% to 71% since March, the largest three-month drop since 2009.</p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">the US Dollar Index fell in tandem</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, the strength of the US dollar has also weakened, with the US Dollar Index currently trading near its April 2022 level, down nearly 10% from its all-time high.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933da88b6af1b7ce7a54fb42e84aa2ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The the US Dollar Index, which measures the volatility of the US dollar against six major currencies, is sensitive to interest rate policy and is usually positively correlated with interest rate levels, i.e., rate hike pushes the US Dollar Index higher and vice versa.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This can be observed in the current rate hike cycle, which has lasted 15 months and accumulated 500 basis points. The Federal Reserve began rate hike in March 2022, and then aggressively raised rate hike by 75 basis points four times between June and September. the US Dollar Index rose from approximately 102 in early June to approximately 114 at the end of September, a cumulative increase of over 11%. During this period, other currencies faced enormous depreciation pressure. It wasn't until the recent resolution of the debt ceiling crisis and the clear signal from the Federal Reserve to suspend rate hike that the US Dollar Index finally retreated.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently, the market expects two more rate hike of 25 basis points or 50 basis points before the end of this year. However, the previously widely expected recession has not yet occurred. The U.S. economy appears to have withstood the impact of rate hike, the labor market is resilient, and corporate balance sheets are mostly healthy.<strong>In their latest report, Bank of America strategists upgraded their outlook for the U.S. stock market and are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook. They predict that even if a recession occurs, it will be relatively mild.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691390\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691390","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1156309203","content_text":"站在六月美联储暂停加息的节点回看，可以发现这样一幕神奇的景象：美股大盘和美元的表现，相比22年初加息周期开始时几乎没有变化。大盘指数时空穿越 回到15个月前截至周五美股收盘，标普500指数收获五周连阳，报4409点。当15个月前，美联储开启本轮加息周期时，标普大盘收于4358点。现在的标普500指数，比2022年3月16日第一次加息时还要高。通常来说，美联储加息收紧流动性，尽管不是导致熊市的直接因素，但也会导致大盘的调整。2022年，美国股市尤其是科技股的大幅调整可以印证这一点。在春天的加息之后，由于高通膨和借贷成本攀升，美国股票遭到抛售而落入熊市，经济衰退预测更是在市场中扩散。但是，今年上半年，在强劲的企业盈利推动下，美股大幅反弹。在年初进入财报季之前，华尔街分析师原本已经大幅下调预期，结果，在企业陆续公布财报后，强劲业绩抵消了悲观情绪。FactSet的数据显示，截至5月底，近80%美股上市公司第一季度财报超出预期，比例创下2年来新高。此外，在ChatGPT掀起的热潮推动下，美股七姐妹（苹果、微软、英伟达、亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉和谷歌）等大型科技股持续走高，拉动指数上升。今年上半年，纳指和标普500指数出现反弹，相继进入技术性牛市。目前来看，尽管在六月议息会议后美联储主席鲍威尔依然坚持放鹰，但货币政策的未来路径已有很高确定性，市场普遍预计加息已经临近终点，联储的紧缩立场已经无法再抑制市场的上行动力。彭博社援引专家说法称，未来6-12个月，美联储的重要性会降低，其他全球驱动因素和基本面因素将发挥更大的作用。此外，根据花旗集团的模型，自3月以来，宏观因素对股市的影响已从83%降至71%，这是2009年以来最大的三个月降幅。美元指数同步回落与此同时，美元的强势也有所减弱，美元指数目前在2022年4月的水平附近交易，较其历史高点下降了近10%。衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率波动的美元指数对利率政策较为敏感，通常与利率水平呈正相关关系，即加息推动美元指数上涨，反之则下跌。在本轮已持续15个月、累计500基点的加息周期中，可以观察到这一点。美联储自22年3月开始加息，随后在6月至9月期间，连续四次激进加息75个基点。美元指数从6月初的约102涨至9月末的约114，累计涨幅超过11%。期间其他货币承受了巨大的贬值压力。直到近期债务上限危机解决、美联储暂停加息信号明确，美元指数才终于回落。目前，市场预计，到今年年底前还会有两次25个基点或一次50个基点的加息。但此前普遍预计的衰退尚还没有发生，美国经济似乎已经承受了加息的冲击，劳动力市场富有弹性，企业资产负债表大多健康。美银的策略师在最新报告中提升了他们对美股市场的展望，并对经济前景越来越乐观，他们预测，如果出现经济衰退，也会相对温和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979025074,"gmtCreate":1685289510398,"gmtModify":1685289514106,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979025074","repostId":"1169636070","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169636070","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1685276505,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169636070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-28 20:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US Treasury default crisis: Preliminary agreement reached, but the alarm is far from lifted.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169636070","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"闯关国会，又是一场“恶仗”。经过数周的激烈谈判，美国两党终于在周六晚间就解决美国债务上限问题达成“原则性协议”。不过，这份协议还需得到美国国会的快速通过，才能真正解除本次美债违约的“警报”。而这，又将","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Breaking through Congress will be another \"fierce battle\".</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After weeks of intense negotiations, the two parties in the United States finally reached an \"agreement in principle\" on Saturday night to resolve the U.S. debt ceiling issue. However, this agreement still needs to be quickly approved by the US Congress to truly lift the \"alarm\" of this US Treasury default. And this will be another \"fierce battle\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the initial agreement was reached, Biden said it represented a \"compromise\" for him, while Republican House Speaker McCarthy said the agreement \"made historic cuts in spending.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Looking back at this round of debt ceiling negotiations, it is not difficult to see that the contradiction between the two sides lies in the fact that Republicans hope to reach an agreement to significantly cut government spending while adjusting the debt ceiling. Democrats, on the other hand, insist on adjusting the debt ceiling relatively independently and are unwilling to make too many concessions on spending cuts.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many analysts believe that this compromise will likely fail to satisfy both more radical Republican lawmakers and the Democratic left:</p><p>\"It is almost certain that the cuts in the package are both too mild to win the votes of hardline conservatives and too harsh to win the votes of radicals in the House.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, many media outlets have commented that the prospects for the agreement in both the Senate and the House of Representatives may be \"bumpy\". CCTV News, citing a commentary from The Washington Post, stated that passing an agreement in the short term in the current \"troubled and divided\" Congress is a \"difficult task.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to McCarthy's timetable, the House of Representatives will vote next Wednesday (May 31) before sending it to the Senate for consideration. The U.S. Treasury Department stated this Friday that if Congress fails to pass the agreement in time, the government will default on its debt on June 5.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, the U.S. Congress must successfully pass the relevant bill before \"X Date\" in order to avoid a debt default in the United States. If there is \"even the slightest mistake\" in the vote between the two houses next week, the potential risk of a \"technical default\" on US Treasury bonds is far from disappearing.</p><p><h2>\"Bipartisan cooperation\" is essential, while \"dealing with troublemakers\" is key.</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Following the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats and Republicans control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, respectively. Therefore, the two parties must reach a \"cooperation\" agreement in order for the relevant bills to pass in both houses.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, as mentioned earlier, the point of contention between the two sides is that radical members of both parties may find it difficult to make concessions on the bill, and senators from each party may find different reasons to oppose the bill—some far-right Republicans may believe that spending cuts are insufficient, while some left-wing Democratic politicians may feel that they have made too many concessions to Republicans.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, based on the \"bipartisan cooperation\" reached between Biden and McCarthy, the key to solving the problem is whether these \"troublesome\" lawmakers can be dealt with.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to a previous report by Politico, White House officials had informally calculated that, even if they lost some of the Republican vote,<strong>McCarthy could need as many as 100 Democratic votes to secure a 218-vote majority to ensure the final debt ceiling agreement passes the House of Representatives.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if the bill encounters serious obstacles in the House of Representatives, Democrats can also adopt a rarely used emergency tactic – a “discharge petition” – to vote on the debt ceiling in a “clean” manner, without any strings attached. However, this congressional strategy is even less promising—although Democrats support it, it needs to convince a sufficient Republican majority to join it, otherwise it will not succeed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, Biden could attempt to invoke the untested legal theory of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which stipulates that \"the validity of the public debt of the United States... shall not be questioned,\" thus clearing the way for him to authorize more borrowing. However, this could be immediately challenged in court.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If passed in the House of Representatives, the bill will go to the Senate.<strong>In the Senate, the bill needs the support of at least nine Republicans to receive 60 out of 100 votes in order to continue pushing legislation.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Media analysts say that in the Democratic-controlled Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has complete control over when the bill will be voted on. However, individual senators could delay the process by insisting on procedural procedures, including a 30-hour debate on whether to begin debate and another 30 hours on the bill itself.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Senate needs to pass the bill without changing the House bill. Otherwise, it will have to be sent back to the House of Representatives for a new round of voting.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if there is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris can vote 51-50 to pass.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The agreement can only be submitted to the White House for Biden to sign into law after it is passed by both the Senate and House of Representatives. Only by quickly completing this legislation can the \"alarm\" of this US Treasury default be successfully lifted.</p><p><h2>Timeline of this round of \"US Treasury cap game\"</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, 2023, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote to Congress stating that the United States would reach the statutory debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion on January 19, and the Treasury Department would begin taking some “extraordinary measures,” with cash and “extraordinary measures” likely to support it until early June.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that it is not uncommon for US Treasury bonds to hit their upper limit, but the intensity of market panic this time is quite rare. The reasons for this may be related to the current extremely tight monetary policy in the United States, regional banking crises, and recession expectations. US Treasury Secretary Yellen's frequent reminders have further fueled this panic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, Yellen wrote to Congress that she would take \"extraordinary measures\" on January 19; On April 25, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a speech warning of serious consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling is not addressed. On May 1 and May 15, Yellen sent letters to Congress, formally warning that the default date was earlier than expected; On May 27, Yellen warned again that if the U.S. Congress failed to pass the agreement in time, the government would default on its debt on June 5.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the evening of May 27, US President Joe Biden and Congressional Republican Leader John McCarthy reached an agreement in principle to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, according to media reports citing sources familiar with the matter.<strong>Negotiators from both sides agreed to raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling for two years, while simultaneously cutting and limiting some government spending over the two years, keeping non-defense spending nearly flat for the next two years.</strong>The agreement did not mention a budget cap after 2025, but announced that the specific bill would be submitted to the House of Representatives for a vote on May 31.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A White House Council of Institutional Economic Advisers estimates that the U.S. stock market would plummet 45% if U.S. Treasuries defaulted. According to Moody's estimates, if the US Treasury defaults, the US unemployment rate will soar by 5 percentage points, which means that approximately 8 million Americans will be unemployed. At the same time, governments subject to debt ceilings will be unable to cope with the economic downturn through fiscal stimulus, leading to a more severe recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Treasury default crisis: Preliminary agreement reached, but the alarm is far from lifted.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Treasury default crisis: Preliminary agreement reached, but the alarm is far from lifted.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-28 20:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Breaking through Congress will be another \"fierce battle\".</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After weeks of intense negotiations, the two parties in the United States finally reached an \"agreement in principle\" on Saturday night to resolve the U.S. debt ceiling issue. However, this agreement still needs to be quickly approved by the US Congress to truly lift the \"alarm\" of this US Treasury default. And this will be another \"fierce battle\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the initial agreement was reached, Biden said it represented a \"compromise\" for him, while Republican House Speaker McCarthy said the agreement \"made historic cuts in spending.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Looking back at this round of debt ceiling negotiations, it is not difficult to see that the contradiction between the two sides lies in the fact that Republicans hope to reach an agreement to significantly cut government spending while adjusting the debt ceiling. Democrats, on the other hand, insist on adjusting the debt ceiling relatively independently and are unwilling to make too many concessions on spending cuts.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many analysts believe that this compromise will likely fail to satisfy both more radical Republican lawmakers and the Democratic left:</p><p>\"It is almost certain that the cuts in the package are both too mild to win the votes of hardline conservatives and too harsh to win the votes of radicals in the House.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, many media outlets have commented that the prospects for the agreement in both the Senate and the House of Representatives may be \"bumpy\". CCTV News, citing a commentary from The Washington Post, stated that passing an agreement in the short term in the current \"troubled and divided\" Congress is a \"difficult task.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to McCarthy's timetable, the House of Representatives will vote next Wednesday (May 31) before sending it to the Senate for consideration. The U.S. Treasury Department stated this Friday that if Congress fails to pass the agreement in time, the government will default on its debt on June 5.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, the U.S. Congress must successfully pass the relevant bill before \"X Date\" in order to avoid a debt default in the United States. If there is \"even the slightest mistake\" in the vote between the two houses next week, the potential risk of a \"technical default\" on US Treasury bonds is far from disappearing.</p><p><h2>\"Bipartisan cooperation\" is essential, while \"dealing with troublemakers\" is key.</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Following the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats and Republicans control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, respectively. Therefore, the two parties must reach a \"cooperation\" agreement in order for the relevant bills to pass in both houses.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, as mentioned earlier, the point of contention between the two sides is that radical members of both parties may find it difficult to make concessions on the bill, and senators from each party may find different reasons to oppose the bill—some far-right Republicans may believe that spending cuts are insufficient, while some left-wing Democratic politicians may feel that they have made too many concessions to Republicans.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, based on the \"bipartisan cooperation\" reached between Biden and McCarthy, the key to solving the problem is whether these \"troublesome\" lawmakers can be dealt with.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to a previous report by Politico, White House officials had informally calculated that, even if they lost some of the Republican vote,<strong>McCarthy could need as many as 100 Democratic votes to secure a 218-vote majority to ensure the final debt ceiling agreement passes the House of Representatives.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if the bill encounters serious obstacles in the House of Representatives, Democrats can also adopt a rarely used emergency tactic – a “discharge petition” – to vote on the debt ceiling in a “clean” manner, without any strings attached. However, this congressional strategy is even less promising—although Democrats support it, it needs to convince a sufficient Republican majority to join it, otherwise it will not succeed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, Biden could attempt to invoke the untested legal theory of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which stipulates that \"the validity of the public debt of the United States... shall not be questioned,\" thus clearing the way for him to authorize more borrowing. However, this could be immediately challenged in court.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If passed in the House of Representatives, the bill will go to the Senate.<strong>In the Senate, the bill needs the support of at least nine Republicans to receive 60 out of 100 votes in order to continue pushing legislation.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Media analysts say that in the Democratic-controlled Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has complete control over when the bill will be voted on. However, individual senators could delay the process by insisting on procedural procedures, including a 30-hour debate on whether to begin debate and another 30 hours on the bill itself.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Senate needs to pass the bill without changing the House bill. Otherwise, it will have to be sent back to the House of Representatives for a new round of voting.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if there is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris can vote 51-50 to pass.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The agreement can only be submitted to the White House for Biden to sign into law after it is passed by both the Senate and House of Representatives. Only by quickly completing this legislation can the \"alarm\" of this US Treasury default be successfully lifted.</p><p><h2>Timeline of this round of \"US Treasury cap game\"</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, 2023, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote to Congress stating that the United States would reach the statutory debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion on January 19, and the Treasury Department would begin taking some “extraordinary measures,” with cash and “extraordinary measures” likely to support it until early June.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that it is not uncommon for US Treasury bonds to hit their upper limit, but the intensity of market panic this time is quite rare. The reasons for this may be related to the current extremely tight monetary policy in the United States, regional banking crises, and recession expectations. US Treasury Secretary Yellen's frequent reminders have further fueled this panic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, Yellen wrote to Congress that she would take \"extraordinary measures\" on January 19; On April 25, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a speech warning of serious consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling is not addressed. On May 1 and May 15, Yellen sent letters to Congress, formally warning that the default date was earlier than expected; On May 27, Yellen warned again that if the U.S. Congress failed to pass the agreement in time, the government would default on its debt on June 5.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the evening of May 27, US President Joe Biden and Congressional Republican Leader John McCarthy reached an agreement in principle to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, according to media reports citing sources familiar with the matter.<strong>Negotiators from both sides agreed to raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling for two years, while simultaneously cutting and limiting some government spending over the two years, keeping non-defense spending nearly flat for the next two years.</strong>The agreement did not mention a budget cap after 2025, but announced that the specific bill would be submitted to the House of Representatives for a vote on May 31.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A White House Council of Institutional Economic Advisers estimates that the U.S. stock market would plummet 45% if U.S. Treasuries defaulted. According to Moody's estimates, if the US Treasury defaults, the US unemployment rate will soar by 5 percentage points, which means that approximately 8 million Americans will be unemployed. At the same time, governments subject to debt ceilings will be unable to cope with the economic downturn through fiscal stimulus, leading to a more severe recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689787\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689787","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169636070","content_text":"闯关国会，又是一场“恶仗”。经过数周的激烈谈判，美国两党终于在周六晚间就解决美国债务上限问题达成“原则性协议”。不过，这份协议还需得到美国国会的快速通过，才能真正解除本次美债违约的“警报”。而这，又将是一场“恶仗”。在协议初步达成后，拜登表示，对他而言这代表了“妥协”，而共和党籍的众议院议长麦卡锡则表示，协议“在开支方面做了历史性的削减”。回顾本轮美债上限博弈，不难发现双方的矛盾点在于，共和党人希望在调整债务上限的同时，达成大幅削减政府开支的协议；而民主党人则坚持相对独立地调整债务上限，不愿在削减开支方面做出太大让步。不少分析认为，这份妥协的产物恐怕既无法满足共和党内立场更为激进的议员，又无法令民主党左翼感到满意：“几乎可以肯定的是，一揽子计划中的削减措施既过于温和，无法赢得强硬保守派的投票，又过于严厉，无法赢得众议院激进派的投票。”因此，不少媒体评论称，该协议在参众两院的前景可能都将“崎岖不平”。央视新闻援引《华盛顿邮报》评论称，短时间内在当前这个“容易陷入困境且分裂的”国会通过协议是一项“艰难的任务”。按麦卡锡给出的时间表，众议院将在下周三（5月31日）进行投票，随后送往参议院过会。而美国财政部本周五曾表示，如果美国国会不能及时通过协议，政府将会在6月5日出现债务违约。因此，美国国会必须成功在“X Date”前投票通过相关法案，才能避免美国出现债务违约。如果下周两院投票“稍有差池”，美债“技术性违约”的潜在风险就远远谈不上消失。“两党合作”是必须，“搞定刺头”是关键2022年中期选举后，民主党和共和党分别控制着美国会参议院和众议院，因此两党必须达成“合作”，才有可能使相关法案在两院都获得通过。不过，如前所述，双方的矛盾点在于，双方党内激进派议员可能很难就法案达成让步，来自每个党派的参议员可能会找到不同的理由反对该法案——部分极右翼共和党人可能会认为支出削减不够充分，而部分民主党左翼政客可能会觉得他们向共和党人让步太多。因此，在拜登和麦卡锡达成“两党合作”的基础上，能否搞定这些“刺头”议员，是解决问题的关键。据Politico此前报道，白宫官员曾非正式地计算过，在失去共和党一部分选票的情况下，麦卡锡可能需要获得多达100张民主党选票，才能以确保最终的债务上限协议取得218多数票——确保协议能够在众议院获得通过。值得一提的是，如果法案在众议院严重遇阻，民主党人还可以采取一种很少使用的紧急策略——“解除请愿书”，以“清洁”调整，不应该有附加条件的方式对债务上限进行投票。不过，这项议会策略更是希望渺茫——尽管民主党人支持这一做法，但需要说服足够多的共和党多数派加入，否则无法成功。此外，拜登可以尝试援引美国宪法第14修正案的未经检验的法律理论，该修正案规定“美国公共债务的有效性……不得被质疑”，从而为他授权更多借款扫清了道路。不过，这可能会立即在法庭上受到质疑。如果在众议院获得通过，该法案将提交参议院。在参议院，这项法案需要至少9名共和党人的支持，才能取得100票中的60票支持，从而继续推动立法。媒体分析称，在民主党控制的参议院，多数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)对该法案何时进行投票拥有完全控制权。但是，个别参议员可以通过坚持程序性操作来延缓这一进程，包括就是否开始辩论先进行30个小时的辩论，以及就法案本身再进行30个小时的辩论。而参议院需要在不改变众议院议案的情况下通过该法案。否则，它将不得不被打回众议院重新开始新一轮投票。值得一提的是，如果参议院出现50-50的平局，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯可以投票以51-50通过。只有在参众两院都取得通过后，该协议方能提交白宫，由拜登签署成为法律。而只有快速完成这一立法，本次美债违约的“警报”才能顺利解除。本轮“美债上限博弈”时间线2023年1月13日，美国财政部长耶伦致信国会称，美国将在1月19日触及31.4万亿美元的法定债务上限，财政部将开始采取一些“非常措施”，现金和“非常措施”可能会支持到6月初。值得一提的是，美债触及上限并不罕见，但这次市场恐慌情绪之浓较为罕见。究其原因，可能和当前美国极其紧缩的货币政策、地区银行危机与衰退预期有关。而美财长耶伦的频频提醒，又进一步点燃了这一恐慌。1月13日耶伦致信国会将会在1月19日采取“非常措施”；4月25日，美财长耶伦发表演讲，警告美债上限不解决会产生严重后果；5月1日和5月15日，耶伦致信国会，正式警告违约日期比预期更早；5月27日，耶伦又警告称表示，如果美国国会不能及时通过协议，政府将会在6月5日出现债务违约。5月27日晚，美国总统拜登和国会共和党领袖麦卡锡已就提高联邦政府31.4万亿美元的债务上限达成原则性协议，媒体援引知情人士消息报道，双方谈判代表同意将美国联邦债务上限提高两年，同时将削减和限制两年内部分政府支出，非国防支出在2年内保持接近持平，协议中并未提及2025年后的预算上限，宣布具体法案于5月31日交由众议院表决。据白宫的一个机构经济顾问委员会估计，如果美债发生违约，美国股市将暴跌 45%。另据穆迪估计，若美债违约，那么美国失业率将飙升5个百分点，这意味着大约800万美国人失业。同时，受债务上限限制的政府将无法通过财政刺激应对经济低迷，从而导致更严重的衰退。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970507343,"gmtCreate":1684566896483,"gmtModify":1684566900530,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970507343","repostId":"1134825236","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134825236","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1684547417,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134825236?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-20 09:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Extreme Game\"! U.S. debt ceiling negotiations \"ended without results\" on Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134825236","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。据报道，债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据路透报道，美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended Friday with neither side mentioning any progress nor scheduling further meetings. According to reports, the debt ceiling impasse focuses on spending levels in 2024.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Reuters, the second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling concluded on Friday, with neither side mentioning any progress nor scheduling further meetings.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republican Representative garrett Graves told reporters after a brief meeting with White House officials at the Capitol:</p><p>“We had a very, very frank discussion, discussing our current situation and how things need to develop.”<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Tonight is not a negotiation,\" Graves said, adding,<strong>The time of the next meeting has not yet been determined.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>He agreed with GOP leader and House Speaker McCarthy that progress needs to be made in changing the “trajectory” of rapidly rising U.S. government deficit spending and debt.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">McCarthy said, \"We must spend less than last year.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another Republican negotiator, Representative Patrick McHenry, said McCarthy would be briefed on the progress of the negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Neither member of parliament mentioned any progress.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the first meeting on Friday morning, McCarthy's debt ceiling negotiators abruptly left shortly after a closed-door meeting with White House representatives began.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The news shook financial markets as the debt ceiling deadline approached.</p><p><h2>Focus of Controversy: Spending Levels in 2024</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republicans are pushing for deep spending cuts in exchange for raising the cap.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The debt ceiling impasse focuses on spending levels in 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to a previous report by Axios, Democratic Representative Dusty Johnson stated:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The White House wants to continue spending more money, and as long as that's their position, it's impossible to reach an agreement.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Johnson said McCarthy “insisted” on Republican demands to limit discretionary spending to 2022 levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Extreme Game\"! U.S. debt ceiling negotiations \"ended without results\" on Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Extreme Game\"! U.S. debt ceiling negotiations \"ended without results\" on Friday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-20 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended Friday with neither side mentioning any progress nor scheduling further meetings. According to reports, the debt ceiling impasse focuses on spending levels in 2024.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Reuters, the second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling concluded on Friday, with neither side mentioning any progress nor scheduling further meetings.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republican Representative garrett Graves told reporters after a brief meeting with White House officials at the Capitol:</p><p>“We had a very, very frank discussion, discussing our current situation and how things need to develop.”<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Tonight is not a negotiation,\" Graves said, adding,<strong>The time of the next meeting has not yet been determined.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>He agreed with GOP leader and House Speaker McCarthy that progress needs to be made in changing the “trajectory” of rapidly rising U.S. government deficit spending and debt.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">McCarthy said, \"We must spend less than last year.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another Republican negotiator, Representative Patrick McHenry, said McCarthy would be briefed on the progress of the negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Neither member of parliament mentioned any progress.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the first meeting on Friday morning, McCarthy's debt ceiling negotiators abruptly left shortly after a closed-door meeting with White House representatives began.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The news shook financial markets as the debt ceiling deadline approached.</p><p><h2>Focus of Controversy: Spending Levels in 2024</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republicans are pushing for deep spending cuts in exchange for raising the cap.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The debt ceiling impasse focuses on spending levels in 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to a previous report by Axios, Democratic Representative Dusty Johnson stated:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The White House wants to continue spending more money, and as long as that's their position, it's impossible to reach an agreement.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Johnson said McCarthy “insisted” on Republican demands to limit discretionary spending to 2022 levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689223\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ece06f0d5f47ced3643ec6cfcc433e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134825236","content_text":"美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。据报道，债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据路透报道，美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。共和党众议员格雷夫斯(garrett Graves)在国会大厦与白宫官员举行简短会晤后对记者说：“我们进行了非常、非常坦诚的讨论，讨论了我们的现状，讨论了事情需要如何发展。”“今晚不是一次谈判，”格雷夫斯说，并补充说，下一次会议的时间尚未确定。他赞同美国共和党领袖、众议院议长麦卡锡的说法，即需要在改变美国政府赤字支出和债务迅速上升的“轨迹”方面取得进展。麦卡锡说：“我们的支出必须比去年少。”另一位共和党谈判代表、众议员Patrick McHenry说，麦卡锡将听取有关谈判进展的简报。两位议员都没有提到任何进展。在周五早上的第一次会议上，麦卡锡的债务上限谈判代表与白宫代表的闭门会议开始后不久便突然离开。随着债务上限最后期限的临近，这一消息震动了金融市场。焦点争议：2024年的支出水平共和党人正在推动大幅削减开支，以换取提高上限。债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据媒体Axios此前报道，民主党众议员Dusty Johnson表示：“白宫想继续花更多的钱，只要这是他们的立场，就不可能达成协议。”Johnson说，麦卡锡“坚持”共和党要求将可自由支配的支出限制在2022年的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970221454,"gmtCreate":1684496524678,"gmtModify":1684496528378,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970221454","repostId":"2336951950","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970370921,"gmtCreate":1684078911363,"gmtModify":1684078913086,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970370921","repostId":"1154230640","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947266194,"gmtCreate":1683201230118,"gmtModify":1683201233972,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947266194","repostId":"1185922715","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185922715","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1683200165,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185922715?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-04 19:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's not just about \"moats\"! Buffett also has a major investment \"trick\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185922715","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。一年一度的“投资界春晚”、伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东会将在周六召开，这时候，普通投资者又会抛出灵魂一问：巴菲特","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends, and Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn approximately $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The annual \"Spring Festival Gala of the Investment World,\" the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, will be held on Saturday. At this time, ordinary investors will once again pose a crucial question:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Why are Buffett's stock picks so successful?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Wall Street Journal summarized two answers to this question.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to an article published in the newspaper on Wednesday, one answer is universally known: Buffett's exceptional ability to select high-quality companies, while the other is much less remarkable—his preference for dividend-paying stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Note,<strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Dow Jones Market Data's analysis of the company's announcements,<strong>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn approximately $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nearly a fifth of that will come from Chevron, one of Berkshire's largest holdings.<strong>Chevron has increased its dividend for 36 consecutive years.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, Dow Jones market data shows that Berkshire Hathaway will also receive more than $700 million each from Coca-Cola, Apple, and Bank of America, more than $500 million from Kraft Heinz, and approximately $363 million from American Express.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa8ab5d9e43dc821c224f2bc8d3a57b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\"This is what he likes: dividends and buybacks.\"</strong>Todd Finkle, a professor of entrepreneurship at Gonzaga University, said that Finkle once wrote a book about Buffett's career.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mr. Finkle says Mr. Buffett is good at picking companies that have stood the test of time and improved Dividend in many economic cycles. Over time, this both increased the value of Berkshire's stock portfolio and expanded the company's ample cash reserves that it could use for its own businesses, as well as for acquisitions and share buybacks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Berkshire Hathaway's most recent financial report, the company had $128.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2022.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finkle stated that Buffett's preference for dividend-paying stocks is not his \"secret weapon,\" but it is certainly part of it.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Take Coca-Cola, Buffett's favorite drink, for example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1994, Berkshire Hathaway bought its current holdings of approximately 400 million Coca-Cola shares for $1.3 billion, receiving $75 million in cash Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>In 2022, this figure increased nearly tenfold to $704 million, while the market value of Berkshire Hathaway's Coca-Cola shares soared to $25 billion.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his annual letter to shareholders earlier this year, Buffett stated,<strong>Dividend grows every year, as certain as a birthday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his shareholder letter, Buffett stated:</p><p>All Charlie (Munger) and I had to do was cash Coca-Cola's quarterly Dividend checks.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett and Munger predict that Coca-Cola will continue to increase its Dividend in the future. Coca-Cola said in February that it had approved the 61st consecutive increase in annual Dividend.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In other words, according to Finkle, Buffett's \"secret weapon\" in stock selection is actually \"selecting high-quality companies + dividend-paying stocks\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This \"secret weapon\" achieved similar returns for Berkshire Hathaway when used on American Express.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Berkshire completed the vast majority of its $1.3 billion acquisition of American Express shares in 1995 and acquired $41 million in Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last year, Berkshire Hathaway's stake in American Express was worth $22 billion, and it received $302 million in Dividend from the latter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"These Dividend gains, while satisfactory, are far from spectacular,\" he said in his letter. \"But the important thing is that they brought about an increase in stock prices.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Generally, investors tend to reinvest dividends into their original stocks, but Berkshire Hathaway did not reinvest dividends from Coca-Cola and American Express in these two stocks. The increased stake was due to years of share buybacks by the two companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact,<strong>Berkshire has not increased its stake in Coca-Cola and American Express stock since the 1990s, some speculate, perhaps because it hates paying too high a price for its investments.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a 1983 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett said:</p><p>For investors, buying stock in a good company at an excessively high price may offset the impact of favorable business development over the next decade.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that while Dividend can provide stable income like bonds, it still carries risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, if a company is short on cash flow, it can cut or even suspend dividends, and suspending dividends often causes the stock price to fall because investors often see it as a signal that the company is in a major financial crisis. In addition, when investors choose more expensive growth stocks, their Dividend often perform poorly.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's not just about \"moats\"! Buffett also has a major investment \"trick\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's not just about \"moats\"! Buffett also has a major investment \"trick\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-04 19:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends, and Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn approximately $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The annual \"Spring Festival Gala of the Investment World,\" the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, will be held on Saturday. At this time, ordinary investors will once again pose a crucial question:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Why are Buffett's stock picks so successful?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Wall Street Journal summarized two answers to this question.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to an article published in the newspaper on Wednesday, one answer is universally known: Buffett's exceptional ability to select high-quality companies, while the other is much less remarkable—his preference for dividend-paying stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Note,<strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Dow Jones Market Data's analysis of the company's announcements,<strong>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn approximately $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nearly a fifth of that will come from Chevron, one of Berkshire's largest holdings.<strong>Chevron has increased its dividend for 36 consecutive years.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, Dow Jones market data shows that Berkshire Hathaway will also receive more than $700 million each from Coca-Cola, Apple, and Bank of America, more than $500 million from Kraft Heinz, and approximately $363 million from American Express.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa8ab5d9e43dc821c224f2bc8d3a57b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\"This is what he likes: dividends and buybacks.\"</strong>Todd Finkle, a professor of entrepreneurship at Gonzaga University, said that Finkle once wrote a book about Buffett's career.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mr. Finkle says Mr. Buffett is good at picking companies that have stood the test of time and improved Dividend in many economic cycles. Over time, this both increased the value of Berkshire's stock portfolio and expanded the company's ample cash reserves that it could use for its own businesses, as well as for acquisitions and share buybacks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Berkshire Hathaway's most recent financial report, the company had $128.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2022.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finkle stated that Buffett's preference for dividend-paying stocks is not his \"secret weapon,\" but it is certainly part of it.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Take Coca-Cola, Buffett's favorite drink, for example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1994, Berkshire Hathaway bought its current holdings of approximately 400 million Coca-Cola shares for $1.3 billion, receiving $75 million in cash Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>In 2022, this figure increased nearly tenfold to $704 million, while the market value of Berkshire Hathaway's Coca-Cola shares soared to $25 billion.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his annual letter to shareholders earlier this year, Buffett stated,<strong>Dividend grows every year, as certain as a birthday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his shareholder letter, Buffett stated:</p><p>All Charlie (Munger) and I had to do was cash Coca-Cola's quarterly Dividend checks.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett and Munger predict that Coca-Cola will continue to increase its Dividend in the future. Coca-Cola said in February that it had approved the 61st consecutive increase in annual Dividend.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In other words, according to Finkle, Buffett's \"secret weapon\" in stock selection is actually \"selecting high-quality companies + dividend-paying stocks\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This \"secret weapon\" achieved similar returns for Berkshire Hathaway when used on American Express.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Berkshire completed the vast majority of its $1.3 billion acquisition of American Express shares in 1995 and acquired $41 million in Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last year, Berkshire Hathaway's stake in American Express was worth $22 billion, and it received $302 million in Dividend from the latter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"These Dividend gains, while satisfactory, are far from spectacular,\" he said in his letter. \"But the important thing is that they brought about an increase in stock prices.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Generally, investors tend to reinvest dividends into their original stocks, but Berkshire Hathaway did not reinvest dividends from Coca-Cola and American Express in these two stocks. The increased stake was due to years of share buybacks by the two companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact,<strong>Berkshire has not increased its stake in Coca-Cola and American Express stock since the 1990s, some speculate, perhaps because it hates paying too high a price for its investments.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a 1983 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett said:</p><p>For investors, buying stock in a good company at an excessively high price may offset the impact of favorable business development over the next decade.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that while Dividend can provide stable income like bonds, it still carries risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, if a company is short on cash flow, it can cut or even suspend dividends, and suspending dividends often causes the stock price to fall because investors often see it as a signal that the company is in a major financial crisis. In addition, when investors choose more expensive growth stocks, their Dividend often perform poorly.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687974\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ecc14db02762fcb82cdbb76e654301","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687974","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185922715","content_text":"巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。一年一度的“投资界春晚”、伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东会将在周六召开，这时候，普通投资者又会抛出灵魂一问：巴菲特的选股为什么会如此成功？对于这个问题，《华尔街日报》总结了两个答案。根据该报周三发布的文章，其中一个答案无人不晓，即巴菲特出神入化的挑选优质公司的能力，另外一个则不起眼得多——青睐派息股。注意，巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息。根据Dow Jones Market Data对公司公告的分析，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。其中近五分之一将来自伯克希尔最大持股之一的雪佛龙，雪佛龙已连续36年增加派息。另外，道琼斯市场数据显示，伯克希尔还将从可口可乐、苹果和美国银行各拿到逾7亿美元，从卡夫亨氏公司拿到逾5亿美元，从美国运通公司拿到约3.63亿美元。 “这就是他喜欢的：派息和回购，”贡萨加大学创业学教授Todd Finkle说，Finkle曾写过一本关于巴菲特职业生涯的书。Finkle说，巴菲特擅长挑选在许多经济周期中经受住时间考验并提高股息的公司。随着时间推移，这既增加了伯克希尔股票投资组合的价值，也扩大了公司能够用于自身业务以及收购和股票回购的充足现金储备。根据伯克希尔最近的财报，公司到2022年年底拥有1286亿美元的现金和现金等价物。Finkle表示，青睐派息股并非巴菲特的“秘密武器”，但确是其中一部分。拿巴菲特最爱的可口可乐举例。1994年，伯克希尔·哈撒韦以13亿美元买入其目前持有的大约4亿股可口可乐股份，当年就获得了7500万美元的现金股息。2022年，这一数字翻了近十倍至7.04亿美元，而伯克希尔持有的可口可乐股份市值也已飙升至250亿美元。巴菲特在今年早些时候发布的年度致股东信中称，股息每年都会增长，就像生日一样确定无疑。巴菲特在股东信中表示：我和查理（芒格）要做的只是兑现可口可乐的季度股息支票。巴菲特和芒格预计，可口可乐未来将继续提高股息。可口可乐2月份表示，已批准连续第61次提高年度股息。也就是说，按照Finkle的说法，巴菲特选股的“秘密武器”其实是“挑选优质公司+派息股”。该“秘密武器”用在美国运通公司身上也为伯克希尔实现了类似的回报。伯克希尔1995年完成了以13亿美元买入美国运通股份的绝大部分交易，并在当年获得了4100万美元的股息。去年，伯克希尔所持美国运通股份价值为220亿美元，并从后者获得了3.02亿美元的股息。“这些股息收益固然令人满意，却远谈不上惊人，”巴菲特在他的信中表示。“但重要的是它们带来了股价的上涨。”一般来说，投资者倾向于将分红重新投资到原股票上，但伯克希尔并没有将可口可乐和美国运通的分红重新投资到这两只股票中，持股比例升高则是因为两家公司多年以来的股票回购。事实上，伯克希尔自1990年代以来就没有加码可口可乐和美国运通股票，有人推测，这可能是因为他讨厌为投资支付过高的价格。巴菲特在1983年写给伯克希尔股东的信中说：对于投资者来说，以过高的价格购买一家优秀公司的股票，可能会抵消随后十年有利的业务发展所产生的影响。值得注意的是，股息虽然能够像债券一样提供稳定的收入，但仍存在风险。比如，如果一家公司现金流紧张，它可以削减甚至是暂停派息，而暂停派息又往往会导致股价下跌，因为投资者经常其视为公司出现重大财务危机的信号。另外，当投资者选择较昂贵的成长股时，其股息也往往表现不佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947646940,"gmtCreate":1683116807581,"gmtModify":1683116811218,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947646940","repostId":"1166168941","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166168941","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1683116159,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166168941?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-03 20:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. ADP employment figures for April were 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166168941","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月3日，美国4月ADP就业人数为29.6万人，为2022年7月以来最大增幅；预期14.8万人，前值14.5万人。ADP报告：4月金融服务业就业人数减少2.8万人，3月减少5.1万人；4月贸易/运输/","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, the U.S. ADP employment figures for April were 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022. The expected number was 148,000, compared to the previous value of 145,000.</p><p>ADP report: Financial services employment fell by 28,000 in April and by 51,000 in March;</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate for trade/transportation/utilities employees was 6.6% in April, compared to 7.0% in March.</p><p>The median annual growth rate of wages for construction workers in April was 6.9%, compared to 7.0% in March.</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate for professional/business service employees was 6.3% in April, compared to 6.4% in March.</p><p>The median annual growth rate of manufacturing wages in April was 6.2%, compared to 6.5% in March.</p><p>The median annual growth rate of wages for employees in the financial services industry was 6.7% in April, compared to 6.8% in March.</p><p>Following the data release, US stock futures experienced little short-term volatility, with Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3%. the US Dollar Index rose more than 10 points in the short term and is currently trading at 101.67. Spot gold fell by about $2 in the short term, currently trading at $2013.50 per ounce.</p><p><strong>Institutional assessment of US ADP employment figures:</strong>U.S. private companies added 296,000 jobs in April, indicating a hiring boom despite a sharp slowdown in wage growth for those changing jobs.</p><p><strong>ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson:</strong>The slowdown in wage growth provides the clearest signal yet of the current state of the labor market, with employers controlling wage growth while hiring aggressively. Our data also shows that fewer and fewer people are changing jobs.</p><p><strong>Financial website Forexlive comments on US April ADP data:</strong>This is a strong number and highlights why the Federal Reserve's job is so difficult. They cannot reasonably raise wages without undermining the banking system, but the addition of nearly 300,000 jobs suggests that the pressure for wage growth has not disappeared.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. ADP employment figures for April were 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. ADP employment figures for April were 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-03 20:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, the U.S. ADP employment figures for April were 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022. The expected number was 148,000, compared to the previous value of 145,000.</p><p>ADP report: Financial services employment fell by 28,000 in April and by 51,000 in March;</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate for trade/transportation/utilities employees was 6.6% in April, compared to 7.0% in March.</p><p>The median annual growth rate of wages for construction workers in April was 6.9%, compared to 7.0% in March.</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate for professional/business service employees was 6.3% in April, compared to 6.4% in March.</p><p>The median annual growth rate of manufacturing wages in April was 6.2%, compared to 6.5% in March.</p><p>The median annual growth rate of wages for employees in the financial services industry was 6.7% in April, compared to 6.8% in March.</p><p>Following the data release, US stock futures experienced little short-term volatility, with Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3%. the US Dollar Index rose more than 10 points in the short term and is currently trading at 101.67. Spot gold fell by about $2 in the short term, currently trading at $2013.50 per ounce.</p><p><strong>Institutional assessment of US ADP employment figures:</strong>U.S. private companies added 296,000 jobs in April, indicating a hiring boom despite a sharp slowdown in wage growth for those changing jobs.</p><p><strong>ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson:</strong>The slowdown in wage growth provides the clearest signal yet of the current state of the labor market, with employers controlling wage growth while hiring aggressively. Our data also shows that fewer and fewer people are changing jobs.</p><p><strong>Financial website Forexlive comments on US April ADP data:</strong>This is a strong number and highlights why the Federal Reserve's job is so difficult. They cannot reasonably raise wages without undermining the banking system, but the addition of nearly 300,000 jobs suggests that the pressure for wage growth has not disappeared.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166168941","content_text":"5月3日，美国4月ADP就业人数为29.6万人，为2022年7月以来最大增幅；预期14.8万人，前值14.5万人。ADP报告：4月金融服务业就业人数减少2.8万人，3月减少5.1万人；4月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.6%，3月为7.0%；4月建筑业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.9%，3月为7.0%；4月专业/商业服务就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.3%，3月为6.4%；4月制造业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.2%，3月为6.5%；4月金融服务业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.7%，3月为6.8%。数据公布后，美股期货短线波动不大，纳斯达克100指数期货维持约0.3%的涨幅。美元指数短线拉升逾10点，现报101.67。现货黄金短线走低约2美元，现报2013.50美元/盎司。机构评美国ADP就业人数：美国私营企业4月份增加了29.6万个就业岗位，表明尽管换工作的人的工资增长大幅放缓，但仍出现了招聘热潮。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson：薪资增长放缓给出了当前劳动力市场状况的最清晰信号，雇主们在大举招聘的同时，也在控制薪资增长。我们的数据还显示，换工作的人越来越少。财经网站Forexlive评美国4月ADP数据：这是一个强劲的数字，也突显出美联储的工作为何如此艰难。他们不可能在不破坏银行体系的情况下合理地提高工资，但增加了近30万个工作岗位表明，工资增长的压力并没有消失。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947810878,"gmtCreate":1682859685094,"gmtModify":1682859688499,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947810878","repostId":"2331122664","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2331122664","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682828286,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2331122664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-30 12:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How long can US tech stocks remain bullish? It all depends on Apple and AMD's earnings reports next week.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2331122664","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"后续财报可能“喜忧参半”，AI热潮带动芯片需求增加，AMD、高通财报指引可能好于预期，而苹果可能会公布其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩。经济衰退阴云笼罩下，微软、Meta等科技巨头扛住了压力，一季度业绩超","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Subsequent earnings reports may be mixed, with the AI boom driving increased chip demand, AMD and Qualcomm's earnings guidance likely to be better than expected, and Apple potentially announcing its product division shrinking across the board for the first time in three years.</strong>Under the shadow of economic recession,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Tech giants such as Meta withstood the pressure, with first-quarter results exceeding expectations.</p><p>Specifically, Meta made a comeback, unexpectedly reversing its third consecutive quarter of decline in revenue in the first quarter; Microsoft's results last quarter exceeded expectations, with cloud business revenue maintaining double-digit growth;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Search returned to growth in the first quarter, and the cloud business turned a profit.</p><p>Furthermore, despite record losses for chip stocks, earnings guidance is positive. SK Hynix points out that improved demand coupled with production cuts may boost the market, and the chip market is expected to rebound in the second quarter. But, on the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Warnings about sluggish growth in its cloud computing business, coupled with Cloudflare's move to lower its full-year revenue forecast, highlight the uncertainty surrounding the overall economy.</p><p><strong>Better-than-expected earnings reports eased market concerns about slowing demand for technology products, driving a rebound in US stocks.</strong>The S&P 500 posted its biggest single-day gain since the first week of the year on Thursday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed up 2.76%, its biggest gain since January 20.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822b80c8c4e84fc0602fb949d5d61757\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"614\"/></p><p><strong>Next week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>AMD will disclose more information on demand for its technology products, and its financial performance will be key to whether technology stocks can continue to rebound. The following is a preview of the financial report:</strong></p><p>Tuesday: AMD will release its earnings report after the US stock market closes. The artificial intelligence boom is expected to drive demand for chips in data centers, and the resulting increased demand may offset the continued weakness in PC chip sales. With its customer and gaming divisions still sluggish, data centers will be key to AMD's revenue generation.</p><p>Wednesday: Qualcomm will release its results after the US stock market closes. With smartphone demand remaining weak, investors will closely study Qualcomm's quarterly guidance for signs of recovery and OEM inventory replenishment. Last month, chip giants Micron and Infineon provided better-than-expected guidance, raising hopes for a rebound.</p><p>Thursday: Apple will release its results after the US stock market closes. Apple may report its product division shrinking across the board for the first time in three years, with iPad and iPhone sales declining from a year ago, Mac sales slowing more pronounced, and weak consumer spending on high-end devices continuing to drag down overall growth. The impact of iPhone supply chain issues and foreign exchange headwinds may be reflected in earnings reports, and Barclays believes this downturn will continue into this quarter, especially with slowing demand for the iPhone 14 Pro model.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How long can US tech stocks remain bullish? It all depends on Apple and AMD's earnings reports next week.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow long can US tech stocks remain bullish? It all depends on Apple and AMD's earnings reports next week.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-30 12:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Subsequent earnings reports may be mixed, with the AI boom driving increased chip demand, AMD and Qualcomm's earnings guidance likely to be better than expected, and Apple potentially announcing its product division shrinking across the board for the first time in three years.</strong>Under the shadow of economic recession,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Tech giants such as Meta withstood the pressure, with first-quarter results exceeding expectations.</p><p>Specifically, Meta made a comeback, unexpectedly reversing its third consecutive quarter of decline in revenue in the first quarter; Microsoft's results last quarter exceeded expectations, with cloud business revenue maintaining double-digit growth;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Search returned to growth in the first quarter, and the cloud business turned a profit.</p><p>Furthermore, despite record losses for chip stocks, earnings guidance is positive. SK Hynix points out that improved demand coupled with production cuts may boost the market, and the chip market is expected to rebound in the second quarter. But, on the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Warnings about sluggish growth in its cloud computing business, coupled with Cloudflare's move to lower its full-year revenue forecast, highlight the uncertainty surrounding the overall economy.</p><p><strong>Better-than-expected earnings reports eased market concerns about slowing demand for technology products, driving a rebound in US stocks.</strong>The S&P 500 posted its biggest single-day gain since the first week of the year on Thursday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed up 2.76%, its biggest gain since January 20.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822b80c8c4e84fc0602fb949d5d61757\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"614\"/></p><p><strong>Next week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>AMD will disclose more information on demand for its technology products, and its financial performance will be key to whether technology stocks can continue to rebound. The following is a preview of the financial report:</strong></p><p>Tuesday: AMD will release its earnings report after the US stock market closes. The artificial intelligence boom is expected to drive demand for chips in data centers, and the resulting increased demand may offset the continued weakness in PC chip sales. With its customer and gaming divisions still sluggish, data centers will be key to AMD's revenue generation.</p><p>Wednesday: Qualcomm will release its results after the US stock market closes. With smartphone demand remaining weak, investors will closely study Qualcomm's quarterly guidance for signs of recovery and OEM inventory replenishment. Last month, chip giants Micron and Infineon provided better-than-expected guidance, raising hopes for a rebound.</p><p>Thursday: Apple will release its results after the US stock market closes. Apple may report its product division shrinking across the board for the first time in three years, with iPad and iPhone sales declining from a year ago, Mac sales slowing more pronounced, and weak consumer spending on high-end devices continuing to drag down overall growth. The impact of iPhone supply chain issues and foreign exchange headwinds may be reflected in earnings reports, and Barclays believes this downturn will continue into this quarter, especially with slowing demand for the iPhone 14 Pro model.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687780\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/353f693b3cf73305d444a14080157632","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","AAPL":"苹果","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687780","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2331122664","content_text":"后续财报可能“喜忧参半”，AI热潮带动芯片需求增加，AMD、高通财报指引可能好于预期，而苹果可能会公布其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩。经济衰退阴云笼罩下，微软、Meta等科技巨头扛住了压力，一季度业绩超出预期。具体来看，Meta“咸鱼翻身”，一季度收入意外扭转三季连降；微软上季度业绩超预期，云业务营收维持两位数增长；谷歌一季度搜索重回增长，云业务扭亏为盈。此外，尽管芯片股业绩亏损创下纪录，但财报指引向好。SK海力士指出，需求改善叠加减产或将提振市场，芯片市场将在二季度出现反弹。不过，另一方面，亚马逊对其云计算业务增长乏力的警告，以及Cloudflare下调全年营收预期的举措，突显出整体经济的不确定性。超预期的财报缓解了市场对科技产品需求放缓的担忧，带动美股反弹。标普500指数在周四创下今年第一周以来的最大单日涨幅，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数收涨2.76%，创1月20日以来最大涨幅。下周，苹果、高通和AMD将披露更多科技产品的需求情况，其财报表现成为科技股能否继续反弹的关键。以下是财报前瞻：周二：AMD将在美股盘后发布财报。人工智能热潮预计将带动数据中心对芯片的需求，带来的需求增加可能会抵消PC端芯片销售的持续疲软。由于其客户和游戏部门仍然低迷，数据中心将是AMD获得收入的关键。周三：高通将在美股盘后公布业绩。在智能手机需求持续疲软的情况下，投资者将仔细研究高通的季度指引，以寻找复苏的迹象和OEM厂商的库存补充。上个月，芯片巨头美光科技和英飞凌科技提供了好于预期的指引，提升了反弹的希望。周四：苹果将在美股盘后公布业绩。苹果可能会报告其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩，iPad和iPhone的销售一年较前下滑，Mac的销售放缓可能更加明显，消费者对高端设备的消费疲软仍然拖累整体增长。iPhone供应链问题和外汇阻力的影响可能会在财报中显示出来，巴克莱认为，这种不景气会延续到本季度，尤其是对iPhone 14 Pro机型的需求放缓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":1,"GFS":1,"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947804564,"gmtCreate":1682781272658,"gmtModify":1682819983063,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947804564","repostId":"1193243086","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193243086","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682757120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193243086?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-29 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who will win the First Republic? Report: FDIC requires bidders such as JPMorgan Chase to submit final offers by Sunday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193243086","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"作为吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，摩根大通的收购在监管方面存在障碍，但为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。岌岌可危的第一共和银行迎来了意向方：摩根大通、PNC都有可能成为最终收购者。据彭博今日报","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>As a large bank that takes in more than 10% of deposits, JPMorgan's acquisition faces regulatory hurdles, but there is also the possibility of an exception in order to save First Republic Bank.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The struggling First Republic Bank has received interested parties: JPMorgan Chase and PNC are both potential acquirers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to a Bloomberg report today, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has required banks including JPMorgan Chase and PNC Financial Services Group to...<strong>Submit a final offer for First Republic Bank by Sunday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regulator on Thursday solicited interest from banks, including information on their proposed offers and estimated costs for First Republic Bank deposit insurance, and on Friday invited two companies to participate in the next step of the bidding process.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg stated that the bidding process initiated by regulators could pave the way for the sale of First Republic Bank, without the lengthy auction process that occurred when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, the precipitous drop in First Republic Bank's stock (down 97% year-to-date) has reduced its market capitalization to just $650 million.<strong>This may also provide some feasibility for the acquisition.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c0b589ac7783879dc11eba6207dc3e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street Journal reported earlier today that U.S. officials, including the FDIC, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Federal Reserve, are coordinating meetings with other banks to facilitate a bailout plan for First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, First Republic Bank's advisors sought to get several banks involved in the bailout a month ago to buy its assets at above-market prices.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although buyers lose money when they buy, these potential buyers' $30 billion deposits at First Republic Bank are not insured. If they believe First Republic Bank is about to go bankrupt, they could risk losing the money altogether.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, even if the federal government uses its emergency powers to guarantee these deposits, large banks will need to replenish huge sums of money with the FDIC. As part of the deal, several banks that intervened in the bailout could receive some form of equity.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Such a plan would result in short-term losses for the rescued banks, but in the long run it may be less costly than failing First Republic Bank and being taken over by regulators.</strong></p><p><h2>Regulatory barriers</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, even though First Republic Bank's market capitalization has dwindled, regulatory rules could also add obstacles to acquisitions.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because JPMorgan Chase is one of the few large banks in the United States that absorbs more than 10% of deposits,<strong>According to U.S. regulations, the bank is not eligible to acquire another institution that also takes deposits, which would make it bigger again.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nevertheless, there is the possibility of an exception in order to save First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The FDIC prefers to limit the solution to the private sector rather than the billions it would have to pay to take over a bank again. The agency had previously planned to conduct a special assessment of the banking sector to cover the costs of the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, media outlets, citing sources, reported that the most likely outcome for First Republic Bank was a takeover by the FDIC. If First Republic is taken over by regulators, the FDIC will still ask other banks about possible acquisition bids. However, sources said at the time that there was still hope for a solution that would prevent First Republic from being taken over by the FDIC.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who will win the First Republic? Report: FDIC requires bidders such as JPMorgan Chase to submit final offers by Sunday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho will win the First Republic? Report: FDIC requires bidders such as JPMorgan Chase to submit final offers by Sunday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-29 16:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>As a large bank that takes in more than 10% of deposits, JPMorgan's acquisition faces regulatory hurdles, but there is also the possibility of an exception in order to save First Republic Bank.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The struggling First Republic Bank has received interested parties: JPMorgan Chase and PNC are both potential acquirers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to a Bloomberg report today, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has required banks including JPMorgan Chase and PNC Financial Services Group to...<strong>Submit a final offer for First Republic Bank by Sunday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regulator on Thursday solicited interest from banks, including information on their proposed offers and estimated costs for First Republic Bank deposit insurance, and on Friday invited two companies to participate in the next step of the bidding process.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg stated that the bidding process initiated by regulators could pave the way for the sale of First Republic Bank, without the lengthy auction process that occurred when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, the precipitous drop in First Republic Bank's stock (down 97% year-to-date) has reduced its market capitalization to just $650 million.<strong>This may also provide some feasibility for the acquisition.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c0b589ac7783879dc11eba6207dc3e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street Journal reported earlier today that U.S. officials, including the FDIC, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Federal Reserve, are coordinating meetings with other banks to facilitate a bailout plan for First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, First Republic Bank's advisors sought to get several banks involved in the bailout a month ago to buy its assets at above-market prices.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although buyers lose money when they buy, these potential buyers' $30 billion deposits at First Republic Bank are not insured. If they believe First Republic Bank is about to go bankrupt, they could risk losing the money altogether.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, even if the federal government uses its emergency powers to guarantee these deposits, large banks will need to replenish huge sums of money with the FDIC. As part of the deal, several banks that intervened in the bailout could receive some form of equity.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Such a plan would result in short-term losses for the rescued banks, but in the long run it may be less costly than failing First Republic Bank and being taken over by regulators.</strong></p><p><h2>Regulatory barriers</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, even though First Republic Bank's market capitalization has dwindled, regulatory rules could also add obstacles to acquisitions.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because JPMorgan Chase is one of the few large banks in the United States that absorbs more than 10% of deposits,<strong>According to U.S. regulations, the bank is not eligible to acquire another institution that also takes deposits, which would make it bigger again.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nevertheless, there is the possibility of an exception in order to save First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The FDIC prefers to limit the solution to the private sector rather than the billions it would have to pay to take over a bank again. The agency had previously planned to conduct a special assessment of the banking sector to cover the costs of the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, media outlets, citing sources, reported that the most likely outcome for First Republic Bank was a takeover by the FDIC. If First Republic is taken over by regulators, the FDIC will still ask other banks about possible acquisition bids. However, sources said at the time that there was still hope for a solution that would prevent First Republic from being taken over by the FDIC.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687776\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc56982f828847b68443cfbde6a957b","relate_stocks":{"FRCB":"第一共和银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687776","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193243086","content_text":"作为吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，摩根大通的收购在监管方面存在障碍，但为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。岌岌可危的第一共和银行迎来了意向方：摩根大通、PNC都有可能成为最终收购者。据彭博今日报道，美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）要求包括摩根大通和PNC金融服务集团在内的银行在周日之前提交对第一共和银行的最终报价。监管机构于周四向各家银行征求了意向，包括了解这些银行建议的报价以及对第一共和银行存款保险金的预估成本，并于周五邀请了两家公司参加了下一步的竞标过程。彭博表示，监管机构启动的竞标程序可能为第一共和银行的出售铺平道路，而不会像硅谷银行和签字银行倒闭时经历漫长的拍卖流程。此外，第一共和银行股票的断崖式下跌（今年以来下跌97%）已经使市值跌至仅有6.5亿美元，这可能也为收购提供了一定程度上的可行性。华尔街见闻今日早些时候曾介绍，包括FDIC、美国财政部和美联储在内的美国官员们正在协调与其他银行的会议，以促成对第一共和银行的救助计划。此前，第一共和银行的顾问们寻求让数家参与了一个月前救助行动的银行以高于市价的价格购买其资产。尽管买家买入即亏，但这些潜在买家在第一共和银行的300亿美元存款没有保险。如果他们认为第一共和银行即将破产，他们可能会面临彻底失去这笔钱的风险。此外，即使联邦政府动用紧急权力为这些存款提供担保，大型银行也需要向FDIC补充巨额资金。作为交易的一部分，多家出手救助的银行可以获得某种形式的股权。上述方案将导致出手相救的银行短期内蒙受损失，但从长远来看，可能比让第一共和银行倒闭并被监管机构接管的成本更低。监管障碍然而，尽管第一共和银行的市值已经所剩无几，但监管规定也可能为收购行动增加阻碍。由于摩根大通是全美少数几家吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，根据美国监管规定，该行没有资格再收购一家同样吸收存款的机构，这将令其规模再一次壮大。尽管如此，为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。相比FDIC再次接管一家银行所必须付出的数十亿成本，FDIC更希望将解决方案限制在私营部门。此前该机构已经计划对银行业进行特别评估，以支付硅谷银行和签名银行上个月破产的费用。此前媒体援引消息人士称，第一共和银行最有可能的结果就是被FDIC接管。如果第一共和银行被监管机构接管，FDIC仍将问询其他银行，让他们进行可能的收购投标。不过消息人士当时称，也仍有希望找到一个第一共和不被FDIC接管的解决方案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FRCB":0.9,"FRC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947158139,"gmtCreate":1682696910222,"gmtModify":1682696913005,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947158139","repostId":"1149416254","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149416254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682695765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149416254?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-28 23:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve blamed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on management problems and inadequate supervision.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149416254","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"硅谷银行的管理层和总监们未能管理好自家公司的众多风险。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Michael Barr, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve for Financial Supervision, blamed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on corporate governance and inappropriate regulation and will consider improving liquidity and capital requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank's management and directors failed to manage their company's many risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank had as many as 31 warnings, three times the industry average.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regulators failed to do enough to ensure that Silicon Valley Bank could address its numerous problems.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Federal Reserve Governing Council has advocated a less decisive approach to regulation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Federal Reserve's pandering posture and shift in stance hinder regulation (targeting institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Calls for \"stronger standards\" for a wider range of banking institutions.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Restricting bank repurchases and dividend payments may be an \"appropriate move\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Consideration should be given to introducing stricter standards for incentive mechanisms (in the banking industry).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More banking institutions should assess profits and losses and assets for sale.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A reassessment system targeting banks with assets exceeding $100 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell supported several of Barr's recommendations regarding systems and regulation.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve blamed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on management problems and inadequate supervision.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve blamed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on management problems and inadequate supervision.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-28 23:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Michael Barr, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve for Financial Supervision, blamed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on corporate governance and inappropriate regulation and will consider improving liquidity and capital requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank's management and directors failed to manage their company's many risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank had as many as 31 warnings, three times the industry average.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regulators failed to do enough to ensure that Silicon Valley Bank could address its numerous problems.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Federal Reserve Governing Council has advocated a less decisive approach to regulation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Federal Reserve's pandering posture and shift in stance hinder regulation (targeting institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Calls for \"stronger standards\" for a wider range of banking institutions.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Restricting bank repurchases and dividend payments may be an \"appropriate move\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Consideration should be given to introducing stricter standards for incentive mechanisms (in the banking industry).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More banking institutions should assess profits and losses and assets for sale.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A reassessment system targeting banks with assets exceeding $100 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell supported several of Barr's recommendations regarding systems and regulation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2455612\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cd29490297b10c3f50798a61050f13","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2455612","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1149416254","content_text":"美联储负责金融监管事务的副主席Michael Barr：将硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭归咎于公司管理和不适当的监管，将考虑改善流动性和资本要求。硅谷银行的管理层和总监们未能管理好自家公司的众多风险。硅谷银行曾出现多达31项警告，那是行业均值的三倍。在确保硅谷银行能够处置众多问题方面，监管人员们没能付出足够的努力。美联储理事会曾提倡实施不那么果断的监管方式。美联储的迎合姿态和立场转变妨碍到（针对硅谷银行等机构的）监管。呼吁针对更大范围的银行机构实施“更加强有力的标准”。限制银行回购和派息可能会是“适当之举”。应当考虑针对（银行业的）激励机制出台更加严苛的标准。更多的银行机构应当评估盈亏和待售资产。针对那些资产规模超过1000亿美元的银行重新评估制度。美联储主席鲍威尔支持Barr针对制度和监管的若干建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947328082,"gmtCreate":1682592161446,"gmtModify":1682592165089,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947328082","repostId":"1155302222","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155302222","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供即時金融資訊、行情、數據，旨在幫助投資者理解世界，做投資決策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎資訊","id":"1059071526","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682591962,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155302222?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-27 18:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"North-South Water Trends | With the long holiday approaching, net northbound inflows were less than 100 million yuan, including 1.3 billion yuan in the Dagu China Index ETF; Nanshui Insurance's massive acquisition of Ping","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155302222","media":"老虎資訊","summary":"北水今日淨入0.8億港元。 全日最多淨入個股為 快手-W，全日有1.49億港元淨買； 中国神华 錄1.24億港元淨入； 中芯国际 有1.13億港元淨入。全日最多淨沽是 恒生中国企业 ，金額爲13.37","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HK$0.8 billion today. The stock with the largest net inflow of the day was...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>There was a net purchase of HK$149 million throughout the day;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>A net inflow of HK$124 million was recorded;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>There was a net inflow of HK$113 million.</p><p>The highest net sell throughout the day was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>The amount was HK$1.337 billion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8532a0f226e1c91f3d47f417d803a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p>Southbound capital saw a net outflow of 167 million RMB from A-shares today. The stock with the largest net purchase throughout the day was Ping An Insurance, with a net inflow of 505 million RMB today. The largest net seller throughout the day was China Merchants Bank, which recorded a net sale of 888 million RMB.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b389e78b013d6431761ec29758c2a110\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>North-South Water Trends | With the long holiday approaching, net northbound inflows were less than 100 million yuan, including 1.3 billion yuan in the Dagu China Index ETF; Nanshui Insurance's massive acquisition of Ping</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNorth-South Water Trends | With the long holiday approaching, net northbound inflows were less than 100 million yuan, including 1.3 billion yuan in the Dagu China Index ETF; Nanshui Insurance's massive acquisition of Ping\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059071526\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎資訊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-27 18:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HK$0.8 billion today. The stock with the largest net inflow of the day was...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>There was a net purchase of HK$149 million throughout the day;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>A net inflow of HK$124 million was recorded;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>There was a net inflow of HK$113 million.</p><p>The highest net sell throughout the day was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>The amount was HK$1.337 billion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8532a0f226e1c91f3d47f417d803a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p>Southbound capital saw a net outflow of 167 million RMB from A-shares today. The stock with the largest net purchase throughout the day was Ping An Insurance, with a net inflow of 505 million RMB today. The largest net seller throughout the day was China Merchants Bank, which recorded a net sale of 888 million RMB.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b389e78b013d6431761ec29758c2a110\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"601318":"中国平安","00981":"中芯国际","HSCEI":"国企指数","00700":"腾讯控股","02318":"中国平安","01088":"中国神华","HSI":"恒生指数","01024":"快手-W","02828":"恒生中国企业","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155302222","content_text":"北水今日淨入0.8億港元。 全日最多淨入個股為 快手-W，全日有1.49億港元淨買； 中国神华 錄1.24億港元淨入； 中芯国际 有1.13億港元淨入。全日最多淨沽是 恒生中国企业 ，金額爲13.37億港元。南水今日淨賣出A股1.67億人民幣。全日最多淨買個股為中國平安 ，今日有5.05億人民幣淨入。全日最多淨沽是招商銀行 ，全日錄8.88億人民幣淨賣。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601318":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"01088":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"00981":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"00700":0.9,"02318":0.9,"02828":0.9,"01024":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947993831,"gmtCreate":1682424732323,"gmtModify":1682424736078,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947993831","repostId":"1181662804","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944761880,"gmtCreate":1682162447540,"gmtModify":1682162452062,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944761880","repostId":"1144371077","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144371077","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682132507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144371077?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-22 11:01","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Earnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144371077","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：G","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict that Google search and cloud services will generate online revenue, but YouTube will face pressure. The company's main challenge is integrating AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The parent company, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), will release its first-quarter earnings results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, April 25.</p><p><strong>Five things to know before Alphabet's first-quarter earnings report:</strong></p><p><ul><li>Wall Street analysts consistently expect earnings per share of $1.08 on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from the fourth quarter of 2022 and 17% from the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>Sales estimates indicate a 10% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>In the past four quarters, the company's earnings and revenue have not met expectations. Alphabet's earnings forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 was below 11%.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor results in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 9.1% after poor results in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Views on Alphabet's earnings report</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict that Google search and cloud services will generate online revenue, but YouTube will face pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly below Wall Street's forecast of $1.08. Experts believe that the first quarter may show an improvement in Alphabet's costs.</p><p>The company's main challenge is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so discussions about future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will become a more defensive self-help stock among internet groups by 2023, with greater relative earnings stability due to its spending flexibility, high profit margins, and the possibility of backing the stock through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's stock performance and valuation</strong></p><p>Alphabet's stock price is $105 per share, and as of this writing, it has risen more than 19% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>The stock price is nearly 30% lower than the all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, the stock price rose 17.5%, marking its strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to Benzinga's professional data, the stock's forward P/E is 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-22 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict that Google search and cloud services will generate online revenue, but YouTube will face pressure. The company's main challenge is integrating AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The parent company, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), will release its first-quarter earnings results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, April 25.</p><p><strong>Five things to know before Alphabet's first-quarter earnings report:</strong></p><p><ul><li>Wall Street analysts consistently expect earnings per share of $1.08 on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from the fourth quarter of 2022 and 17% from the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>Sales estimates indicate a 10% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>In the past four quarters, the company's earnings and revenue have not met expectations. Alphabet's earnings forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 was below 11%.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor results in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 9.1% after poor results in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Views on Alphabet's earnings report</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict that Google search and cloud services will generate online revenue, but YouTube will face pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly below Wall Street's forecast of $1.08. Experts believe that the first quarter may show an improvement in Alphabet's costs.</p><p>The company's main challenge is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so discussions about future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will become a more defensive self-help stock among internet groups by 2023, with greater relative earnings stability due to its spending flexibility, high profit margins, and the possibility of backing the stock through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's stock performance and valuation</strong></p><p>Alphabet's stock price is $105 per share, and as of this writing, it has risen more than 19% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>The stock price is nearly 30% lower than the all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, the stock price rose 17.5%, marking its strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to Benzinga's professional data, the stock's forward P/E is 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d25e1a14780c2d1e6ec5ecf96395d05","relate_stocks":{"LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4507":"流媒体概念","GOOGL":"谷歌A","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144371077","content_text":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）将于 4 月 25 日（周二）美股盘后发布其第一季度财报业绩。在 Alphabet 第一季度财报发布前，需要了解的五件事：华尔街分析师一致预计本季度每股收益为 1.08 美元，收入为 688.7 亿美元。预计收入将比 2022 年第四季度下降 9%，比 2022 年第一季度下降 17%。对销售额的估计表明，与 2022 年第四季度相比下降 10%，与 2022 年第一季度相比表现持平。在过去的四个季度中，该公司的收益和收入均未达到预期。在 2022 年第四季度，Alphabet 的盈利预测低于 11%。Alphabet 股价在 2022 年第四季度业绩不佳后下跌 2.75%，在 2022 年第三季度业绩不佳后下跌 9.1%。美国银行对 Alphabet 财报的看法美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。总体而言，美国银行预计每股收益为 1.07 美元，略低于华尔街预测的 1.08 美元。专家认为，第一季度可能会显示出 Alphabet 的成本有所改善。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中，无论在时间还是在影响方面，因此对未来计划和前景的结果讨论可能构成最重要的股票驱动因素。据美国银行称，到 2023 年，Alphabet 将成为互联网集团中更具防御性的自助股票，由于支出灵活性、高利润率以及通过回购支持股票的可能性，其相对盈利稳定性更高。Alphabet 的股票表现和估值Alphabet 的股价为每股 105 美元，截至撰写本文时，今年迄今上涨逾19%，表现优于标准普尔 500 指数 7.7% 的涨幅。股价比 2022 年 2 月创下的历史高点 151 美元低了近 30%。2023 年第一季度，股价上涨 17.5%，创下 2021 年第二季度以来最强劲的季度表现。根据Benzinga 的专业数据，该股票的远期市盈率为 19.45 。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944761133,"gmtCreate":1682162402123,"gmtModify":1682162405607,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944761133","repostId":"1144371077","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144371077","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682132507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144371077?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-22 11:01","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Earnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144371077","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：G","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict that Google search and cloud services will generate online revenue, but YouTube will face pressure. The company's main challenge is integrating AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The parent company, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), will release its first-quarter earnings results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, April 25.</p><p><strong>Five things to know before Alphabet's first-quarter earnings report:</strong></p><p><ul><li>Wall Street analysts consistently expect earnings per share of $1.08 on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from the fourth quarter of 2022 and 17% from the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>Sales estimates indicate a 10% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>In the past four quarters, the company's earnings and revenue have not met expectations. Alphabet's earnings forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 was below 11%.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor results in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 9.1% after poor results in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Views on Alphabet's earnings report</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict that Google search and cloud services will generate online revenue, but YouTube will face pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly below Wall Street's forecast of $1.08. Experts believe that the first quarter may show an improvement in Alphabet's costs.</p><p>The company's main challenge is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so discussions about future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will become a more defensive self-help stock among internet groups by 2023, with greater relative earnings stability due to its spending flexibility, high profit margins, and the possibility of backing the stock through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's stock performance and valuation</strong></p><p>Alphabet's stock price is $105 per share, and as of this writing, it has risen more than 19% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>The stock price is nearly 30% lower than the all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, the stock price rose 17.5%, marking its strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to Benzinga's professional data, the stock's forward P/E is 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-22 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict that Google search and cloud services will generate online revenue, but YouTube will face pressure. The company's main challenge is integrating AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The parent company, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), will release its first-quarter earnings results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, April 25.</p><p><strong>Five things to know before Alphabet's first-quarter earnings report:</strong></p><p><ul><li>Wall Street analysts consistently expect earnings per share of $1.08 on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from the fourth quarter of 2022 and 17% from the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>Sales estimates indicate a 10% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>In the past four quarters, the company's earnings and revenue have not met expectations. Alphabet's earnings forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 was below 11%.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor results in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 9.1% after poor results in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Views on Alphabet's earnings report</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict that Google search and cloud services will generate online revenue, but YouTube will face pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly below Wall Street's forecast of $1.08. Experts believe that the first quarter may show an improvement in Alphabet's costs.</p><p>The company's main challenge is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so discussions about future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will become a more defensive self-help stock among internet groups by 2023, with greater relative earnings stability due to its spending flexibility, high profit margins, and the possibility of backing the stock through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's stock performance and valuation</strong></p><p>Alphabet's stock price is $105 per share, and as of this writing, it has risen more than 19% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>The stock price is nearly 30% lower than the all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, the stock price rose 17.5%, marking its strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to Benzinga's professional data, the stock's forward P/E is 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d25e1a14780c2d1e6ec5ecf96395d05","relate_stocks":{"LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4507":"流媒体概念","GOOGL":"谷歌A","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144371077","content_text":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）将于 4 月 25 日（周二）美股盘后发布其第一季度财报业绩。在 Alphabet 第一季度财报发布前，需要了解的五件事：华尔街分析师一致预计本季度每股收益为 1.08 美元，收入为 688.7 亿美元。预计收入将比 2022 年第四季度下降 9%，比 2022 年第一季度下降 17%。对销售额的估计表明，与 2022 年第四季度相比下降 10%，与 2022 年第一季度相比表现持平。在过去的四个季度中，该公司的收益和收入均未达到预期。在 2022 年第四季度，Alphabet 的盈利预测低于 11%。Alphabet 股价在 2022 年第四季度业绩不佳后下跌 2.75%，在 2022 年第三季度业绩不佳后下跌 9.1%。美国银行对 Alphabet 财报的看法美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。总体而言，美国银行预计每股收益为 1.07 美元，略低于华尔街预测的 1.08 美元。专家认为，第一季度可能会显示出 Alphabet 的成本有所改善。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中，无论在时间还是在影响方面，因此对未来计划和前景的结果讨论可能构成最重要的股票驱动因素。据美国银行称，到 2023 年，Alphabet 将成为互联网集团中更具防御性的自助股票，由于支出灵活性、高利润率以及通过回购支持股票的可能性，其相对盈利稳定性更高。Alphabet 的股票表现和估值Alphabet 的股价为每股 105 美元，截至撰写本文时，今年迄今上涨逾19%，表现优于标准普尔 500 指数 7.7% 的涨幅。股价比 2022 年 2 月创下的历史高点 151 美元低了近 30%。2023 年第一季度，股价上涨 17.5%，创下 2021 年第二季度以来最强劲的季度表现。根据Benzinga 的专业数据，该股票的远期市盈率为 19.45 。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944415391,"gmtCreate":1682005221414,"gmtModify":1682005224604,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944415391","repostId":"2328194710","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2328194710","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682004537,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2328194710?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-20 23:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A surge of $11.4 billion in a single quarter! Under the pressure of economic recession, the growth rate of US junk bonds has returned to its peak.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2328194710","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着经济衰退缓慢逼近，企业债券正以2020年以来最快的速度被降为垃圾债。4月19日周三，巴克莱策略师 Dominique Toublan 等的最新研究显示，今年第一季度，共有114亿美元的债券被降级为","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As a recession slowly approaches, corporate bonds are being downgraded to junk bonds at the fastest pace since 2020.</p><p>On Wednesday, April 19th, the latest research by Barclays strategist Dominique Toublan and others showed that...<strong>In the first quarter of this year, a total of $11.4 billion in bonds were downgraded to junk status, representing approximately 60% of the total number of bonds downgraded to junk status for the entire year of 2022.</strong>。 The bank estimates that bond trading volume for the whole year is expected to reach its highest level since 2020, when the outbreak of the pandemic triggered a large-scale wave of bond downgrades.</p><p>This reflects the pressure many businesses are facing as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Companies whose ratings were downgraded to junk status will face additional financing costs as the number of investors eligible to purchase their bonds decreases.</p><p>Barclays predicts that,<strong>As slowing economic growth puts additional pressure on borrowers, the rate of increase in junk bonds will accelerate in the second half of this year.</strong>It is expected that $60 billion to $80 billion worth of bonds, known as \"fallen angels,\" will be downgraded to junk status this year.</p><p>In an interview, Toublan stated:</p><p>The downgrade from investment grade to junk grade indicates that the company's credit standing has deteriorated. The question is, is this just a company problem, or is it a more widespread phenomenon? But Barclays added,<strong>Although more and more companies are being downgraded to junk status, more and more bonds may also be upgraded to investment grade.</strong>。 The bank expects $60 billion to $70 billion to come from these \"rising stars\" this year, which would be the second-highest annual total on record. The pace of rating upgrades may not slow until the second half of this year.</p><p>Nissan contributed a significant portion of the downgraded bonds.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating agency downgraded it to speculative rating in March of this year. Companies whose ratings were downgraded also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>And Axos Financial.</p><p>Although trading volume on these downgraded bonds is increasing, the rating downgrade still appears to be relatively moderate. Barclays stated that the bank's forecast of $60 billion to $80 billion in rating downgrades represents approximately 2.2% of BBB-rated corporate bonds, compared to an average of nearly 6.6% since 2000.</p><p>Analysts believe that,<strong>The previous banking crisis could significantly reduce banks' lending activities. Data from the Federal Reserve shows that since mid-March, the total amount of loans on banks' books has decreased by about $95 billion. Credit conditions are generally tightening, which often drives more rating downgrades.</strong></p><p>Fitch Ratings wrote in a report on Monday that declining profits could erode those of corporate borrowers and potentially harm those of issuers who are more sensitive to economic changes. The agency predicts that the United States will begin to enter an economic recession at the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>Fitch stated:</p><p>Monetary tightening and slowing economic growth will negatively impact demand, while easing inflation will reduce pricing power, leading to slower revenue growth for some U.S. companies and a weakened ability to protect profit margins without cutting costs.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A surge of $11.4 billion in a single quarter! Under the pressure of economic recession, the growth rate of US junk bonds has returned to its peak.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA surge of $11.4 billion in a single quarter! Under the pressure of economic recession, the growth rate of US junk bonds has returned to its peak.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-20 23:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As a recession slowly approaches, corporate bonds are being downgraded to junk bonds at the fastest pace since 2020.</p><p>On Wednesday, April 19th, the latest research by Barclays strategist Dominique Toublan and others showed that...<strong>In the first quarter of this year, a total of $11.4 billion in bonds were downgraded to junk status, representing approximately 60% of the total number of bonds downgraded to junk status for the entire year of 2022.</strong>。 The bank estimates that bond trading volume for the whole year is expected to reach its highest level since 2020, when the outbreak of the pandemic triggered a large-scale wave of bond downgrades.</p><p>This reflects the pressure many businesses are facing as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Companies whose ratings were downgraded to junk status will face additional financing costs as the number of investors eligible to purchase their bonds decreases.</p><p>Barclays predicts that,<strong>As slowing economic growth puts additional pressure on borrowers, the rate of increase in junk bonds will accelerate in the second half of this year.</strong>It is expected that $60 billion to $80 billion worth of bonds, known as \"fallen angels,\" will be downgraded to junk status this year.</p><p>In an interview, Toublan stated:</p><p>The downgrade from investment grade to junk grade indicates that the company's credit standing has deteriorated. The question is, is this just a company problem, or is it a more widespread phenomenon? But Barclays added,<strong>Although more and more companies are being downgraded to junk status, more and more bonds may also be upgraded to investment grade.</strong>。 The bank expects $60 billion to $70 billion to come from these \"rising stars\" this year, which would be the second-highest annual total on record. The pace of rating upgrades may not slow until the second half of this year.</p><p>Nissan contributed a significant portion of the downgraded bonds.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating agency downgraded it to speculative rating in March of this year. Companies whose ratings were downgraded also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>And Axos Financial.</p><p>Although trading volume on these downgraded bonds is increasing, the rating downgrade still appears to be relatively moderate. Barclays stated that the bank's forecast of $60 billion to $80 billion in rating downgrades represents approximately 2.2% of BBB-rated corporate bonds, compared to an average of nearly 6.6% since 2000.</p><p>Analysts believe that,<strong>The previous banking crisis could significantly reduce banks' lending activities. Data from the Federal Reserve shows that since mid-March, the total amount of loans on banks' books has decreased by about $95 billion. Credit conditions are generally tightening, which often drives more rating downgrades.</strong></p><p>Fitch Ratings wrote in a report on Monday that declining profits could erode those of corporate borrowers and potentially harm those of issuers who are more sensitive to economic changes. The agency predicts that the United States will begin to enter an economic recession at the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>Fitch stated:</p><p>Monetary tightening and slowing economic growth will negatively impact demand, while easing inflation will reduce pricing power, leading to slower revenue growth for some U.S. companies and a weakened ability to protect profit margins without cutting costs.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687055\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e77c16b21cd06df0b4a3ec9f76087f1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687055","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2328194710","content_text":"随着经济衰退缓慢逼近，企业债券正以2020年以来最快的速度被降为垃圾债。4月19日周三，巴克莱策略师 Dominique Toublan 等的最新研究显示，今年第一季度，共有114亿美元的债券被降级为垃圾债券，这一数字约占2022年全年被降为垃圾级债券的60%。该行估计，今年全年的债券交易量有望达到自2020年以来的最高水平，当时疫情爆发引发了大规模的债券降级浪潮。这反映出，随着美联储开启数十年来最激进的加息周期，许多企业正面临着压力。由于有资格购买其债券的投资者数量减少，那些评级被下调至垃圾级的企业将面临额外的融资支出。巴克莱预计，随着经济增长放缓给借款人带来了额外的压力，垃圾级债券的增加速度将在今年下半年加快。预计今年将有600亿至800亿美元规模的债券将被降至垃圾级，这些债券被称为“堕落天使”。Toublan 在接受采访时表示：从投资级降至垃圾级，表明该公司的信用状况恶化。问题是，这只是一家公司的问题，还是一个更普遍的现象？但巴克莱补充称，尽管越来越多的企业被降至垃圾级，但可能也会有越来越多的债券被调高至投资级。该行预计，今年将有600亿至700亿美元来自这些“新星”，这将是有纪录以来第二高的年度总额。到今年下半年，评级上调的步伐才可能会放缓。在评级被下调的债券中，日产汽车贡献了相当一部分的份额。标普全球评级公司在今年3月将其下调至了投机级。评级被下调的企业还包括第一共和银行和Axos Financial公司。虽然有关这些被降级债券的交易量正在上升，但评级的下调似乎仍然是相对温和的。巴克莱称，该行预测的600亿至800亿美元的评级下调约占BBB级公司债券的2.2%，而2000年以来的平均水平接近6.6%。分析认为，此前的银行业危机可能会大幅削减银行的放贷活动。美联储的数据显示，自3月中旬以来，银行账面上的贷款总额已经减少了约950亿美元。信贷环境普遍趋紧，这往往会推动更多的评级下调。惠誉评级公司周一在一份报告中写道，利润下降可能会侵蚀企业借款人的利润，并可能损害对经济变化更为敏感的发行人的利润。该机构预计美国将在今年第三季度末开始步入经济衰退。惠誉表示：货币紧缩和经济增长放缓将对需求产生负面影响，而通胀缓解将降低定价能力，导致一些美国公司的收入增长放缓，在没有削减成本的情况下保护利润率的能力有所减弱。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944594129,"gmtCreate":1681907074261,"gmtModify":1681907076077,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944594129","repostId":"2328783312","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944695446,"gmtCreate":1681818460686,"gmtModify":1681818464507,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944695446","repostId":"1125440795","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125440795","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681817436,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125440795?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-18 19:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Lockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue was $15.1 billion, slightly exceeding expectations.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125440795","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Q1 净利润（亿美元）： 17，预期：15.36，前值：17.33。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lockheed Martin's revenue for the first quarter of 2023 (US$100 million): 151, expected: 150.28, previous value: 149.64.</p><p>First-quarter net profit (US$100 million): 17, expected: 15.36, previous value: 17.33.</p><p>Q1 EPS: $6.61, expected: $6.057, previous value: $6.44.</p><p>Lockheed Martin's pre-market share price rose rapidly in the short term, turning from a decline to a rise.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcce1a714321ac406ff7f02dc397b6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1383\" tg-height=\"764\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue was $15.1 billion, slightly exceeding expectations.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue was $15.1 billion, slightly exceeding expectations.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-18 19:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lockheed Martin's revenue for the first quarter of 2023 (US$100 million): 151, expected: 150.28, previous value: 149.64.</p><p>First-quarter net profit (US$100 million): 17, expected: 15.36, previous value: 17.33.</p><p>Q1 EPS: $6.61, expected: $6.057, previous value: $6.44.</p><p>Lockheed Martin's pre-market share price rose rapidly in the short term, turning from a decline to a rise.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcce1a714321ac406ff7f02dc397b6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1383\" tg-height=\"764\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c278da3656f121b0bf93d422677e9201","relate_stocks":{"LMT":"洛克希德马丁"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125440795","content_text":"洛克希德马丁2023年一季度营收（亿美元）： 151，预期：150.28，前值：149.64。一季度净利润（亿美元）： 17，预期：15.36，前值：17.33。一季度EPS： $6.61，预期：$6.057，前值：$6.44。洛克希德马丁盘前股价短线快速拉升，由跌转涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944348527,"gmtCreate":1681724148569,"gmtModify":1681724152054,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944348527","repostId":"1135442671","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135442671","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681206474,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135442671?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-11 17:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial Report Preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend last, and will it \"backfire\" on itself?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135442671","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"特斯拉频繁的降价行动令分析人士更加关注其第一季度的毛利率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company will release its financial results for the first quarter of 2023, ending March 31, after the market closes on April 19 Eastern Time (April 20 Beijing Time).</p><p>In 2022, Tesla delivered a total of 1.31 million vehicles globally, a 40% increase compared to 2021; Production reached 1.37 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47%, but neither reached the 50% annual growth target.</p><p><strong>The market currently generally expects the company to report first-quarter revenue of $23.46 billion, adjusted profit of $3.057 billion, and earnings per share of $0.86.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Stronger-than-expected results would indicate Tesla's \"cost advantage\" and potential lower input costs, but if the first-quarter results are in line with or below expectations, it would mean overcapacity or product aging, which would put its stock price at risk. Of particular importance, the frequent price cuts have made analysts pay more attention to the electric vehicle manufacturer's gross profit margin in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f14e3cd0b9cf7c3134cc1be1537b19\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>First-quarter deliveries: Is the price reduction effect sustainable?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla to deliver globally in the first quarter of 2023<strong>More than 422,000 vehicles were delivered, breaking the single-quarter delivery record.</strong></p><p>The report shows that in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla produced 440,808 electric vehicles globally and delivered 422,875 units. Of these, 19,437 Model S and Model X units were produced and 10,695 units were delivered; Production of the Model 3 and Model Y was 421,371 units, and deliveries were 412,180 units.</p><p>Compared to the same period last year, Tesla's total production in the first quarter increased by 44% year-on-year, and its deliveries increased by 36% year-on-year, which is 6.69 times the deliveries in the same period of 2019.</p><p>The delivery report indicates that Tesla will continue its transition to \"more balanced mass production targeting different regional markets,\" including Model S/X models currently being shipped to EMEA (Europe/Middle East/Africa) and the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206ca2a9f22472a9e476b926b9c14c33\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk's annual sales target of 1.8-2 million vehicles was achieved quite well in the first quarter. However, it cannot be ignored that in the Chinese market, its core production and sales base, the automotive market is facing more intense competition this year, and Tesla needs to respond more flexibly.</p><p>Industry analysts believe that<strong>Tesla's delivery growth is closely related to its price cuts at the beginning of this year, and the direct reason for the price cuts was to stimulate demand.</strong>In January of this year, Tesla lowered the prices of its models in both China and global markets, with an overall decrease of 9%.</p><p>On April 6 local time, Tesla again lowered the prices of its models sold in the United States, reducing the prices of all models by 2% to 6%. This is the fifth price cut by the automaker since January, with the most significant reduction in high-end models. The more popular Model Y has also seen a 4% price reduction, to $52,990.</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also announced that it will adjust the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y in Hong Kong on April 15, with the Model 3 Performance seeing the largest price reduction, by as much as 14.7%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla had previously launched a price war in the United States, which analysts viewed as a positive sign that the company was trying to boost sales.</p><p>According to Tesla's goal, it aims to increase production more than tenfold to 20 million vehicles per year by 2030. However, Tesla's current models, such as the Model 3/Y, have a maximum sales cycle of 6-7 years and have not undergone a mid-term update. As market competition intensifies, Tesla's products face even more severe challenges.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ed93f64aaf0be3e65df77daffd77f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><p><strong>Positive factors: New low-end models are imminent.</strong></p><p>Recent market news suggests that Tesla is planning a grand production capacity layout for its new low-priced models. \"This low-priced Model is a smaller Model Y,\" a source said.<strong>\"Tesla is building an annual production capacity plan of up to 4 million vehicles.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is understood that this is an early-stage production capacity strategy that Tesla is passing on to the supply chain:<strong>The production capacity of 4 million vehicles will be distributed in factories around the world, including 2 million vehicles in the North American Gigafactory, and 1 million vehicles each in the Berlin plant in Germany and the Lingang plant in Shanghai. Among the North American factories, the Monterrey plant in Mexico will be the main production capacity for this new model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this year's investor day, Tesla unveiled its Monterrey factory in Mexico. Subsequently, media reports indicated that the factory covers nearly 4,200 acres, which is 68% more than the 2,500 acres of the Texas factory and about 20 times the size of the Shanghai factory.</p><p>If a Tesla car sells for 150,000 yuan, it could clearly trigger another sales frenzy.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d883a08243beba49992da0458236253e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p><strong>Unfavorable factors: US electric vehicle tax rebate policy changes again</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service released new rules for tax credits for electric vehicles. Automakers have found that unless a workaround is found, the outcome is likely to be:<strong>Starting with the new system taking effect on April 18, the tax credits available to electric vehicles will be significantly reduced.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ford said that starting April 18, its Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit will be eligible for an electric vehicle tax credit of $3,750, down from the current $7,500, after losing half of the tax credit due to not meeting domestic battery procurement requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Starting April 18, the $7,500 tax credit...<strong>Half will depend on whether the battery components are primarily manufactured in North America.</strong>，<strong>The other half depends on whether the battery minerals primarily come from the United States' free trade partners.</strong>。 Over the next five years, to qualify for tax credits, the proportions of the aforementioned components and minerals in automotive batteries will be further increased from 50% and 40%, respectively.</p><p><strong>Major bank ratings</strong></p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities: Outperform rating, target price $225</strong></p><p>Dan Ives, a well-known Tesla bullish analyst at Wedbush Securities, maintained his \"Outperform\" rating on Tesla stock and his $225 price target. He stated that the Model Y/3 price reduction announced in early 2023 \"brought substantial benefits\" to Tesla, and despite macroeconomic uncertainty, demand appears to be stable. Whether Tesla's gross profit margin can exceed 20% remains a key hurdle in the coming quarters.</p><p><strong>Baird: Overweight rating, target price $252</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird stated that he believes Tesla will be able to maintain industry-leading operating profit margins and be in the best position among its automotive peers to withstand economic headwinds. We maintain our \"Buy\" rating on Tesla stock and our $252 target price.</p><p><strong>Bernstein: Underperform rating, $150 target price</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bernstein stated that Tesla's price cuts were not surprising, but the timing and details were \"a bit surprising,\" suggesting that price cuts may continue in other markets around the world. The agency stated that the price reduction reflects Tesla's need to stimulate market demand. We maintain our underperform rating on Tesla stock and our price target of $150.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research: Peer Performance Ratings</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wolfe Research analyst Rod Lache said that while price cuts in the United States may raise questions about demand for cars, Tesla \"will significantly reduce costs in the future.\" The company stated that investors may have underestimated the new investment in Tesla Energy. We maintain our peer performance rating on Tesla stock, and investors should not be surprised if a price cut triggers a negative short-term reaction to the stock price.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial Report Preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend last, and will it \"backfire\" on itself?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial Report Preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend last, and will it \"backfire\" on itself?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-11 17:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company will release its financial results for the first quarter of 2023, ending March 31, after the market closes on April 19 Eastern Time (April 20 Beijing Time).</p><p>In 2022, Tesla delivered a total of 1.31 million vehicles globally, a 40% increase compared to 2021; Production reached 1.37 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47%, but neither reached the 50% annual growth target.</p><p><strong>The market currently generally expects the company to report first-quarter revenue of $23.46 billion, adjusted profit of $3.057 billion, and earnings per share of $0.86.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Stronger-than-expected results would indicate Tesla's \"cost advantage\" and potential lower input costs, but if the first-quarter results are in line with or below expectations, it would mean overcapacity or product aging, which would put its stock price at risk. Of particular importance, the frequent price cuts have made analysts pay more attention to the electric vehicle manufacturer's gross profit margin in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f14e3cd0b9cf7c3134cc1be1537b19\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>First-quarter deliveries: Is the price reduction effect sustainable?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla to deliver globally in the first quarter of 2023<strong>More than 422,000 vehicles were delivered, breaking the single-quarter delivery record.</strong></p><p>The report shows that in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla produced 440,808 electric vehicles globally and delivered 422,875 units. Of these, 19,437 Model S and Model X units were produced and 10,695 units were delivered; Production of the Model 3 and Model Y was 421,371 units, and deliveries were 412,180 units.</p><p>Compared to the same period last year, Tesla's total production in the first quarter increased by 44% year-on-year, and its deliveries increased by 36% year-on-year, which is 6.69 times the deliveries in the same period of 2019.</p><p>The delivery report indicates that Tesla will continue its transition to \"more balanced mass production targeting different regional markets,\" including Model S/X models currently being shipped to EMEA (Europe/Middle East/Africa) and the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206ca2a9f22472a9e476b926b9c14c33\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk's annual sales target of 1.8-2 million vehicles was achieved quite well in the first quarter. However, it cannot be ignored that in the Chinese market, its core production and sales base, the automotive market is facing more intense competition this year, and Tesla needs to respond more flexibly.</p><p>Industry analysts believe that<strong>Tesla's delivery growth is closely related to its price cuts at the beginning of this year, and the direct reason for the price cuts was to stimulate demand.</strong>In January of this year, Tesla lowered the prices of its models in both China and global markets, with an overall decrease of 9%.</p><p>On April 6 local time, Tesla again lowered the prices of its models sold in the United States, reducing the prices of all models by 2% to 6%. This is the fifth price cut by the automaker since January, with the most significant reduction in high-end models. The more popular Model Y has also seen a 4% price reduction, to $52,990.</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also announced that it will adjust the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y in Hong Kong on April 15, with the Model 3 Performance seeing the largest price reduction, by as much as 14.7%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla had previously launched a price war in the United States, which analysts viewed as a positive sign that the company was trying to boost sales.</p><p>According to Tesla's goal, it aims to increase production more than tenfold to 20 million vehicles per year by 2030. However, Tesla's current models, such as the Model 3/Y, have a maximum sales cycle of 6-7 years and have not undergone a mid-term update. As market competition intensifies, Tesla's products face even more severe challenges.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ed93f64aaf0be3e65df77daffd77f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><p><strong>Positive factors: New low-end models are imminent.</strong></p><p>Recent market news suggests that Tesla is planning a grand production capacity layout for its new low-priced models. \"This low-priced Model is a smaller Model Y,\" a source said.<strong>\"Tesla is building an annual production capacity plan of up to 4 million vehicles.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is understood that this is an early-stage production capacity strategy that Tesla is passing on to the supply chain:<strong>The production capacity of 4 million vehicles will be distributed in factories around the world, including 2 million vehicles in the North American Gigafactory, and 1 million vehicles each in the Berlin plant in Germany and the Lingang plant in Shanghai. Among the North American factories, the Monterrey plant in Mexico will be the main production capacity for this new model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this year's investor day, Tesla unveiled its Monterrey factory in Mexico. Subsequently, media reports indicated that the factory covers nearly 4,200 acres, which is 68% more than the 2,500 acres of the Texas factory and about 20 times the size of the Shanghai factory.</p><p>If a Tesla car sells for 150,000 yuan, it could clearly trigger another sales frenzy.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d883a08243beba49992da0458236253e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p><strong>Unfavorable factors: US electric vehicle tax rebate policy changes again</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service released new rules for tax credits for electric vehicles. Automakers have found that unless a workaround is found, the outcome is likely to be:<strong>Starting with the new system taking effect on April 18, the tax credits available to electric vehicles will be significantly reduced.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ford said that starting April 18, its Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit will be eligible for an electric vehicle tax credit of $3,750, down from the current $7,500, after losing half of the tax credit due to not meeting domestic battery procurement requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Starting April 18, the $7,500 tax credit...<strong>Half will depend on whether the battery components are primarily manufactured in North America.</strong>，<strong>The other half depends on whether the battery minerals primarily come from the United States' free trade partners.</strong>。 Over the next five years, to qualify for tax credits, the proportions of the aforementioned components and minerals in automotive batteries will be further increased from 50% and 40%, respectively.</p><p><strong>Major bank ratings</strong></p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities: Outperform rating, target price $225</strong></p><p>Dan Ives, a well-known Tesla bullish analyst at Wedbush Securities, maintained his \"Outperform\" rating on Tesla stock and his $225 price target. He stated that the Model Y/3 price reduction announced in early 2023 \"brought substantial benefits\" to Tesla, and despite macroeconomic uncertainty, demand appears to be stable. Whether Tesla's gross profit margin can exceed 20% remains a key hurdle in the coming quarters.</p><p><strong>Baird: Overweight rating, target price $252</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird stated that he believes Tesla will be able to maintain industry-leading operating profit margins and be in the best position among its automotive peers to withstand economic headwinds. We maintain our \"Buy\" rating on Tesla stock and our $252 target price.</p><p><strong>Bernstein: Underperform rating, $150 target price</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bernstein stated that Tesla's price cuts were not surprising, but the timing and details were \"a bit surprising,\" suggesting that price cuts may continue in other markets around the world. The agency stated that the price reduction reflects Tesla's need to stimulate market demand. We maintain our underperform rating on Tesla stock and our price target of $150.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research: Peer Performance Ratings</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wolfe Research analyst Rod Lache said that while price cuts in the United States may raise questions about demand for cars, Tesla \"will significantly reduce costs in the future.\" The company stated that investors may have underestimated the new investment in Tesla Energy. We maintain our peer performance rating on Tesla stock, and investors should not be surprised if a price cut triggers a negative short-term reaction to the stock price.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135442671","content_text":"特斯拉将于美国东部时间4月19日收盘后（北京时间4月20日）发布截至3月31日的2023年第一季度财报。在过去的2022年，特斯拉全球共计交付汽车131万辆，相比2021年增长40%；生产量为137万辆，同比增长47%，但均未达到50%的年增长量目标。市场目前普遍预计该公司一季度的营收为234.6亿美元，调整后利润为30.57亿美元，每股收益为0.86美元。强于预期的结果将表明特斯拉的“成本优势地位”和潜在的投入成本下降，但如果第一季度的结果与预期持平或低于预期，则意味着产能过剩或产品老化，这将使其股价面临风险。尤其重要的是，频繁的降价行动令分析人士更加关注这家电动汽车制造商一季度的毛利率情况。一季度交付量：降价效应可持续吗？特斯拉2023年第一季度在全球交付超过42.2万辆汽车，打破了单季度的交付纪录。报告显示，2023年第一季度，特斯拉在全球生产电动车440808台，交付422875台。其中，Model S和Model X生产19437台，交付10695台；Model 3和Model Y的产量为421371台，交付量为412180台。与去年同期相比，特斯拉第一季度总产量同比增长44%，交付量同比增长36%，是2019年同期交付量的6.69倍。交付报告中显示，特斯拉将继续向“针对不同区域市场更加均衡的批量生产”过渡，其中包括正在运往EMEA地区（欧洲/中东/非洲)以及亚太地区的Model S/X车型。马斯克定下的全年180-200万辆的销量目标，第一季度完成得不差。但不容忽视的是，在其产销的核心阵地——中国市场，今年的汽车市场正迎来更为激烈的竞争，特斯拉也需要更灵活地应对。业内分析认为，特斯拉交付量增长与今年年初的降价活动密切相关，而降价的直接原因则是为了刺激需求。今年1月，特斯拉在中国和全球市场均调低了在售车型价格，整体降幅达到9%。当地时间4月6日，特斯拉再次下调了其美国在售车型的售价，将所有车型的价格下调了2%至6%，这是该汽车制造商自1月份以来的第五次降价，其中高端车型的降幅最为显著。较受欢迎的Model Y降价幅度也达到了4%，降至52990美元。与此同时，特斯拉还宣布将于4月15日调整香港地区Model 3和Model Y的售价，价格调整减幅最大的是Model 3 Performance，幅度多达14.7%。此前特斯拉发起在美国的价格战，分析师们都将其视为该公司努力提振销量的积极信号。根据特斯拉的目标，到2030年将产量提高10倍以上，达到2000万辆/年。不过，目前特斯拉在售的Model 3/Y等车型最长销售周期达6-7年，且一直没有进行中期改款。随着市场竞争的加剧，特斯拉的产品面临着更为严峻的挑战。积极因素：新低级车型呼之欲出最近传出市场消息，特斯拉正在为其新的低价车型，规划一副宏大的产能版图。“这款低价车型是一个小号Model Y。”消息人士称，“特斯拉正在为其构建一个高达400万辆的年产能计划。”据了解这是一项早期的产能策略，特斯拉正在向产业链传递：400万辆产能会分布在全球工厂，其中，北美的超级工厂将承担200万辆，德国柏林工厂和上海临港工厂分别承担100万辆。而在北美工厂当中，墨西哥的蒙特雷工厂会是这款新车型的产能主力。在今年投资者日上，特斯拉揭秘了墨西哥的蒙特雷工厂，此后，有媒体报道称，该工厂占地近4200英亩，这比德克萨斯州工厂的2500英亩多出68%，也是上海工厂面积的约20倍。如果一款特斯拉汽车卖到15万元，显然可能再次掀起销量狂潮。不利因素：美国电动车退税政策再生变上周五，美国财政部和国税局公布了新的电动汽车税收抵免细则，各家车企发现，除非找到变通方法，否则结果很可能是：从4月18日新制度生效起，电动汽车享受的税收抵免将大幅减少。福特公司表示，从4月18日开始，其 Mustang Mach-E 和 E-Transit 将有资格获得3750美元的电动汽车税收抵免，低于目前的 7500 美元，因为不符合国内电池采购要求而损失了一半的税收抵免。从4月18日起，7500美元的税收抵免额中有一半将取决于电池组件是否主要由北美制造，另一半取决于电池矿物是否主要来源于美国的自自由贸易伙伴。未来五年，想要符合税收抵免资格，汽车电池中上述组件及矿物占比将分别从50%和40%进一步提高。大行评级韦德布什证券：跑赢大盘评级，目标价225美元知名特斯拉多头分析师、韦德布什证券公司的丹·艾夫斯维持对特斯拉股票的“跑赢大盘”评级和225美元的目标价。他表示，2023年初宣布的Model Y/3降价为特斯拉“带来了丰厚的红利”，尽管宏观经济不确定，但需求似乎很稳定。未来几个季度，特斯拉的汽车毛利率能否超过20%仍是关键门槛。贝尔德：增持评级，目标价252美元贝尔德表示，相信特斯拉将能够保持行业领先的营业利润率，并且在汽车同行中处于最佳位置以抵御经济逆风。维持对特斯拉股票的增持评级和252美元的目标价。伯恩斯坦：表现不佳评级，150美元目标价伯恩斯坦表示，特斯拉降价并不令人意外，但时间和细节“有点令人惊讶”，可能在全球其它市场继续降价。该机构表示，降价反映了特斯拉刺激市场需求的需要。维持特斯拉股票的表现不佳评级和150美元的目标价。Wolfe Research：同业表现评级Wolfe Research 分析师 Rod Lache 表示，虽然美国的降价可能会引发对汽车需求的质疑，但特斯拉“未来会大幅降低成本”。该公司表示，投资者可能低估了对特斯拉能源的新投资。保持对特斯拉股票的同业表现评级，如果降价引发股价负面短期反应，投资者不应感到惊讶。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944993571,"gmtCreate":1681658934194,"gmtModify":1681658937878,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944993571","repostId":"1102189876","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102189876","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1681641413,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102189876?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-16 18:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Don't miss this bull market.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102189876","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"经济似乎还略显冷意，但股市已经迫不及待要热起来。经过一个多月的调整，上周五上证指数再一次逼近3月7日的高位，并显示要突破的态势，而A股成交额更是连续9个交易日超越1万亿。无独有偶，即使是深受美国经济衰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The economy still seems somewhat sluggish, but the stock market is eager to heat up.</p><p>After more than a month of adjustment, the Shanghai Composite Index once again approached the high of March 7 last Friday and showed signs of breaking through, while the turnover of A-shares exceeded 1 trillion yuan for nine consecutive trading days.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2ddeaaf9c0cf410a1d4bebe3f835e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Coincidentally, even the S&P 500, which has been heavily affected by the US economic recession, has quietly approached the high level of February 2.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182ff406e03a8e27b8016acc2b1653c4\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>The stock market has the keenest sense of smell, and capital doesn't lie. The fact that it continues to rise already speaks volumes.</p><p>That's our simple view on the market in 2023:<strong>Don't miss this bull market.</strong></p><p><strong>macro aspect</strong></p><p>Every bull market is predicated on a super low.</p><p>Every investor can feel what a low point 2022 was. With the recurring pandemic, economic downturn, ongoing external wars, and frenzied rate hike, the capital market is truly suffering greatly.</p><p>But everything comes to an end, and several major macroeconomic risks have now basically reversed or are about to reverse. First, there's the Russia-Ukraine war, which has already weakened the capital market. Second, the pandemic has become insignificant. The only thing that's bad now is the global rate hike, especially the official end of the Federal Reserve. Fortunately, this end is already clearly visible, just a matter of official announcement at the May meeting.</p><p>There are two fundamental factors affecting the stock market. One is...<strong>Economic fundamentals,</strong>One is<strong>Liquidity.</strong></p><p><strong>In terms of domestic economic fundamentals, recovery is a foregone conclusion.</strong>On the surface, domestic macroeconomic data does not seem too exciting, but signs of improvement are gradually emerging, especially in terms of consumption. With the May Day holiday approaching, booking data for travel, flights and hotels has strengthened the logic of consumption recovery. The market is now waiting for the macroeconomic data for the first quarter of 2023 to be released in two days. Considering that there was a wave of widespread infection after the epidemic was lifted at the beginning of the year, the data may not be very strong, but it is basically predictable. This should be considered the bottom of this year.</p><p><strong>Externally, a US economic recession is highly likely.</strong>This will have a negative impact on China's exports. As China's third-largest trading partner, China's exports to the United States still reached $536.8 billion despite such difficult circumstances in 2022. However, China itself is also expanding its ties with other economies around the world in an effort to offset the negative impact of the United States. Looking at a longer timeframe, even if a US recession is expected to arrive, according to Federal Reserve officials, the impact will mainly be this year, with a recovery expected in the next two years. So, once we get through this year, we'll basically be fine.</p><p>While there will indeed be some disturbances in China's economic fundamentals in the short term, there is no reason to be pessimistic in the medium to long term, nor is it likely to fall back to last year's low levels. Even if some deep-seated problems, such as great power rivalry and technological innovation, are not resolved immediately, fortunately, these problems will not worsen again, and the country is working hard to break through step by step.</p><p><strong>In terms of liquidity, China's CPI remained low, at only 0.7% in March, which seems to indicate that the economy still needs a stronger recovery, but conversely, it increases the possibility of stimulating the economy and continuing monetary easing.</strong>In fact, there has been significant easing at the monetary level, especially in the recently released social financing and M2 data. However, the transmission from the monetary level to the economy will take time. In addition, the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike is gradually coming to an end, providing more room for our monetary policy to maneuver.</p><p>The macroeconomy is in a recovery phase, and the general direction of liquidity is loose. A bull market in the stock market provides the most basic support.</p><p><strong>microscopic plane</strong></p><p>At the micro level, the main focus is on corporate profitability, which coincides with the collective release of first-quarter reports by listed companies.</p><p>As of today, more than 200 A-share companies have released their first-quarter earnings forecasts. Among them, consumer stocks Langzi Fashion and Yanjing Beer have seen very strong growth. Langzi Fashion's net profit attributable to the parent company has increased by 377-566 times year-on-year, while Yanjing Beer has increased by 71-75 times year-on-year. Although it may seem extreme, it also represents a strong rebound in consumer stocks from being suppressed by the pandemic last year to this year after the pandemic was lifted. And<strong>Technology stocks, represented by semiconductors, also showed strong growth momentum.</strong>A typical example is semiconductor equipment manufacturer North China Electronics, which expects its net profit attributable to the parent company to increase by 1.71-2 times year-on-year.</p><p>In our articles at the beginning of the year, we mentioned investment opportunities in semiconductors several times. However, at that time, it was mainly based on the fact that the semiconductor inventory cycle bottomed out in the first half of this year and entered an upward channel in the second half of the year, which was based on the logic of cyclical reversal. The subsequent chatGPT craze accelerated the cyclical reversal of the semiconductor industry. More importantly, the popularity of chatGPT also marked the beginning of a new round of technological revolution led by AI. This technological revolution, which can rival mechanization, electrification and informatization, and is even larger in scale, has brought new growth space to the technology industry, including semiconductors, and a new blue ocean has slowly unfolded.</p><p>This is also why we keep repeating this year's investment theme: the digital economy is definitely the biggest one.</p><p>In the past, China has basically followed others in terms of technology, but this time, China is the most likely to become one of the leaders. This is because the digital economy has been established as a key industry for national development and support. More importantly, China's strength in the digital economy has greatly improved. Even though it still lags behind the United States in some key technology areas, its advantages compared with most countries in the world are still very obvious.</p><p>Although there are many companies in the A-share market that are riding the wave of concepts, overall, it is highly likely that China will produce corresponding true bull stocks due to this technological revolution, which undoubtedly provides a greater possibility for a bull market. At least from a financial perspective, this technological revolution, with its broad growth prospects and expected returns, can easily attract incremental funds into the stock market.</p><p>As investors, we need to pay more attention to this quarterly report, because it will not only confirm the degree of recovery of the domestic economy, but also become an important basis for predicting the future performance of the economy and listed companies, as well as evidence to verify the entry of incremental funds into the stock market. Although not everything has been released yet, and it is not advisable to draw conclusions too early, given that there is no longer any disruption from the epidemic this year, it is at least certain that overall it will only be better than the same period last year.</p><p>If the final result is indeed like this, it is only a matter of time before the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through the previous month's high.</p><p><strong>There is no doubt that the market will continue to bull.</strong></p><p>There's a famous saying in the investment world:<strong>The future is more important than the past</strong></p><p>This means that the most important factor in whether the stock market will rise or fall is expectations.</p><p>One thing that has struck me most about review over the past year is that it all happened in October last year, when US stocks fell to their lowest point for the year, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also bottomed out in that month.</p><p>If we look at it from a simple linear perspective, the US federal interest rate was not very high at that time, and the economy was still very strong, so why did it fall to a low level so early? With the domestic epidemic and economic pressures so great that there were even rumors of a confidence crisis in foreign capital, the rapid decline is understandable, but why did it rebound so strongly in just a few days? Shouldn't it continue to fall?</p><p><strong>In fact, the stock market has another characteristic: it reacts to the real economy in advance. This reaction usually takes six months, and the process is also affected by other factors, which can be accelerated or slowed down.</strong></p><p>The bottom of the Chinese and American stock markets in October last year was influenced by this pattern, and it is now being verified step by step. First, there is the rate hike behavior of the United States. If it ends as scheduled in May this year, it will be exactly six months from October last year. Secondly, in China, that rapid decline did indeed bottom out ahead of schedule. Of course, the easing of the pandemic in November was also the most important factor in the stock market rebound. If the lockdown had continued, the rebound would not have arrived so quickly.</p><p>Regardless of the circumstances, the possibility of the stock market, whether A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or US stocks, returning to last year's bottom is slim. Not to mention the domestic economic recovery and loose liquidity, even if the US stock market enters a \"profit-killing\" phase, it is unlikely to happen unless the performance of listed companies collapses on a large scale. When bank stocks crashed in March, it triggered a wave of panic, but so far, the expected collapse has not occurred. Instead, the performance of large banks like JPMorgan Chase has increased significantly. In terms of indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was the hardest hit, fluctuated by around 10%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were far below 10%, and all three major indices had fully recovered their March losses and risen significantly.</p><p>It can be said that the biggest macroeconomic risk right now is the US economic recession. If we reflect the future characteristics of the stock market in advance, we are trading now six months from now. In other words, the stock market is pricing in a recession six months from now. Of course, whether it will be fully priced depends on other economic and listed company data, as well as the release of subsequent policies. If these data decline beyond expectations, the stock market will still follow suit. If it meets expectations, the stock market can remain flat. However, if it improves beyond expectations, a rebound could occur at any time.</p><p>If we consider the two factors mentioned earlier—economic fundamentals and liquidity—the tightening of liquidity in US stocks is basically priced in by the market. The only downside is waiting for the economy to bottom out. The situation in China is better, because our economic fundamentals have bottomed out and are in a recovery phase.</p><p><strong>epilogue</strong></p><p>If last year was the moment of collapse for global capital markets, then this year's upward resonance in global capital markets is probably the most anticipated and highly probable event.</p><p>Currently, signs of a bull market may not be very obvious, because apart from the AI sector, other sectors are still relatively low-key and need some catalysts and time. But just as a wind rises from a drizzle and a wave forms from a gentle ripple, the stock market won't directly tell you that a bull market is coming. However, since expectations for the future are positive and valuations are low, keeping a low profile is actually a good thing, which is equivalent to giving investors an opportunity to get on board. If it's already skyrocketing, there's no chance.</p><p>Chinese people often say that adversity leads to turnaround, and the same applies to the stock market. If one sentence suffices to describe this year's stock market investment strategy, it is:</p><p><strong>Don't miss this bull market!</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't miss this bull market.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't miss this bull market.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-16 18:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The economy still seems somewhat sluggish, but the stock market is eager to heat up.</p><p>After more than a month of adjustment, the Shanghai Composite Index once again approached the high of March 7 last Friday and showed signs of breaking through, while the turnover of A-shares exceeded 1 trillion yuan for nine consecutive trading days.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2ddeaaf9c0cf410a1d4bebe3f835e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Coincidentally, even the S&P 500, which has been heavily affected by the US economic recession, has quietly approached the high level of February 2.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182ff406e03a8e27b8016acc2b1653c4\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>The stock market has the keenest sense of smell, and capital doesn't lie. The fact that it continues to rise already speaks volumes.</p><p>That's our simple view on the market in 2023:<strong>Don't miss this bull market.</strong></p><p><strong>macro aspect</strong></p><p>Every bull market is predicated on a super low.</p><p>Every investor can feel what a low point 2022 was. With the recurring pandemic, economic downturn, ongoing external wars, and frenzied rate hike, the capital market is truly suffering greatly.</p><p>But everything comes to an end, and several major macroeconomic risks have now basically reversed or are about to reverse. First, there's the Russia-Ukraine war, which has already weakened the capital market. Second, the pandemic has become insignificant. The only thing that's bad now is the global rate hike, especially the official end of the Federal Reserve. Fortunately, this end is already clearly visible, just a matter of official announcement at the May meeting.</p><p>There are two fundamental factors affecting the stock market. One is...<strong>Economic fundamentals,</strong>One is<strong>Liquidity.</strong></p><p><strong>In terms of domestic economic fundamentals, recovery is a foregone conclusion.</strong>On the surface, domestic macroeconomic data does not seem too exciting, but signs of improvement are gradually emerging, especially in terms of consumption. With the May Day holiday approaching, booking data for travel, flights and hotels has strengthened the logic of consumption recovery. The market is now waiting for the macroeconomic data for the first quarter of 2023 to be released in two days. Considering that there was a wave of widespread infection after the epidemic was lifted at the beginning of the year, the data may not be very strong, but it is basically predictable. This should be considered the bottom of this year.</p><p><strong>Externally, a US economic recession is highly likely.</strong>This will have a negative impact on China's exports. As China's third-largest trading partner, China's exports to the United States still reached $536.8 billion despite such difficult circumstances in 2022. However, China itself is also expanding its ties with other economies around the world in an effort to offset the negative impact of the United States. Looking at a longer timeframe, even if a US recession is expected to arrive, according to Federal Reserve officials, the impact will mainly be this year, with a recovery expected in the next two years. So, once we get through this year, we'll basically be fine.</p><p>While there will indeed be some disturbances in China's economic fundamentals in the short term, there is no reason to be pessimistic in the medium to long term, nor is it likely to fall back to last year's low levels. Even if some deep-seated problems, such as great power rivalry and technological innovation, are not resolved immediately, fortunately, these problems will not worsen again, and the country is working hard to break through step by step.</p><p><strong>In terms of liquidity, China's CPI remained low, at only 0.7% in March, which seems to indicate that the economy still needs a stronger recovery, but conversely, it increases the possibility of stimulating the economy and continuing monetary easing.</strong>In fact, there has been significant easing at the monetary level, especially in the recently released social financing and M2 data. However, the transmission from the monetary level to the economy will take time. In addition, the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike is gradually coming to an end, providing more room for our monetary policy to maneuver.</p><p>The macroeconomy is in a recovery phase, and the general direction of liquidity is loose. A bull market in the stock market provides the most basic support.</p><p><strong>microscopic plane</strong></p><p>At the micro level, the main focus is on corporate profitability, which coincides with the collective release of first-quarter reports by listed companies.</p><p>As of today, more than 200 A-share companies have released their first-quarter earnings forecasts. Among them, consumer stocks Langzi Fashion and Yanjing Beer have seen very strong growth. Langzi Fashion's net profit attributable to the parent company has increased by 377-566 times year-on-year, while Yanjing Beer has increased by 71-75 times year-on-year. Although it may seem extreme, it also represents a strong rebound in consumer stocks from being suppressed by the pandemic last year to this year after the pandemic was lifted. And<strong>Technology stocks, represented by semiconductors, also showed strong growth momentum.</strong>A typical example is semiconductor equipment manufacturer North China Electronics, which expects its net profit attributable to the parent company to increase by 1.71-2 times year-on-year.</p><p>In our articles at the beginning of the year, we mentioned investment opportunities in semiconductors several times. However, at that time, it was mainly based on the fact that the semiconductor inventory cycle bottomed out in the first half of this year and entered an upward channel in the second half of the year, which was based on the logic of cyclical reversal. The subsequent chatGPT craze accelerated the cyclical reversal of the semiconductor industry. More importantly, the popularity of chatGPT also marked the beginning of a new round of technological revolution led by AI. This technological revolution, which can rival mechanization, electrification and informatization, and is even larger in scale, has brought new growth space to the technology industry, including semiconductors, and a new blue ocean has slowly unfolded.</p><p>This is also why we keep repeating this year's investment theme: the digital economy is definitely the biggest one.</p><p>In the past, China has basically followed others in terms of technology, but this time, China is the most likely to become one of the leaders. This is because the digital economy has been established as a key industry for national development and support. More importantly, China's strength in the digital economy has greatly improved. Even though it still lags behind the United States in some key technology areas, its advantages compared with most countries in the world are still very obvious.</p><p>Although there are many companies in the A-share market that are riding the wave of concepts, overall, it is highly likely that China will produce corresponding true bull stocks due to this technological revolution, which undoubtedly provides a greater possibility for a bull market. At least from a financial perspective, this technological revolution, with its broad growth prospects and expected returns, can easily attract incremental funds into the stock market.</p><p>As investors, we need to pay more attention to this quarterly report, because it will not only confirm the degree of recovery of the domestic economy, but also become an important basis for predicting the future performance of the economy and listed companies, as well as evidence to verify the entry of incremental funds into the stock market. Although not everything has been released yet, and it is not advisable to draw conclusions too early, given that there is no longer any disruption from the epidemic this year, it is at least certain that overall it will only be better than the same period last year.</p><p>If the final result is indeed like this, it is only a matter of time before the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through the previous month's high.</p><p><strong>There is no doubt that the market will continue to bull.</strong></p><p>There's a famous saying in the investment world:<strong>The future is more important than the past</strong></p><p>This means that the most important factor in whether the stock market will rise or fall is expectations.</p><p>One thing that has struck me most about review over the past year is that it all happened in October last year, when US stocks fell to their lowest point for the year, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also bottomed out in that month.</p><p>If we look at it from a simple linear perspective, the US federal interest rate was not very high at that time, and the economy was still very strong, so why did it fall to a low level so early? With the domestic epidemic and economic pressures so great that there were even rumors of a confidence crisis in foreign capital, the rapid decline is understandable, but why did it rebound so strongly in just a few days? Shouldn't it continue to fall?</p><p><strong>In fact, the stock market has another characteristic: it reacts to the real economy in advance. This reaction usually takes six months, and the process is also affected by other factors, which can be accelerated or slowed down.</strong></p><p>The bottom of the Chinese and American stock markets in October last year was influenced by this pattern, and it is now being verified step by step. First, there is the rate hike behavior of the United States. If it ends as scheduled in May this year, it will be exactly six months from October last year. Secondly, in China, that rapid decline did indeed bottom out ahead of schedule. Of course, the easing of the pandemic in November was also the most important factor in the stock market rebound. If the lockdown had continued, the rebound would not have arrived so quickly.</p><p>Regardless of the circumstances, the possibility of the stock market, whether A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or US stocks, returning to last year's bottom is slim. Not to mention the domestic economic recovery and loose liquidity, even if the US stock market enters a \"profit-killing\" phase, it is unlikely to happen unless the performance of listed companies collapses on a large scale. When bank stocks crashed in March, it triggered a wave of panic, but so far, the expected collapse has not occurred. Instead, the performance of large banks like JPMorgan Chase has increased significantly. In terms of indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was the hardest hit, fluctuated by around 10%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were far below 10%, and all three major indices had fully recovered their March losses and risen significantly.</p><p>It can be said that the biggest macroeconomic risk right now is the US economic recession. If we reflect the future characteristics of the stock market in advance, we are trading now six months from now. In other words, the stock market is pricing in a recession six months from now. Of course, whether it will be fully priced depends on other economic and listed company data, as well as the release of subsequent policies. If these data decline beyond expectations, the stock market will still follow suit. If it meets expectations, the stock market can remain flat. However, if it improves beyond expectations, a rebound could occur at any time.</p><p>If we consider the two factors mentioned earlier—economic fundamentals and liquidity—the tightening of liquidity in US stocks is basically priced in by the market. The only downside is waiting for the economy to bottom out. The situation in China is better, because our economic fundamentals have bottomed out and are in a recovery phase.</p><p><strong>epilogue</strong></p><p>If last year was the moment of collapse for global capital markets, then this year's upward resonance in global capital markets is probably the most anticipated and highly probable event.</p><p>Currently, signs of a bull market may not be very obvious, because apart from the AI sector, other sectors are still relatively low-key and need some catalysts and time. But just as a wind rises from a drizzle and a wave forms from a gentle ripple, the stock market won't directly tell you that a bull market is coming. However, since expectations for the future are positive and valuations are low, keeping a low profile is actually a good thing, which is equivalent to giving investors an opportunity to get on board. If it's already skyrocketing, there's no chance.</p><p>Chinese people often say that adversity leads to turnaround, and the same applies to the stock market. If one sentence suffices to describe this year's stock market investment strategy, it is:</p><p><strong>Don't miss this bull market!</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3253accc7322a3db322a8557ee9834","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102189876","content_text":"经济似乎还略显冷意，但股市已经迫不及待要热起来。经过一个多月的调整，上周五上证指数再一次逼近3月7日的高位，并显示要突破的态势，而A股成交额更是连续9个交易日超越1万亿。无独有偶，即使是深受美国经济衰退影响的标普指数，也已经悄无声息地逼近2月2日的高位。股市的嗅觉最灵敏，资本也不会骗人，持续向上攻的事实，已经说明问题。那就是我们对于2023年市场的一个简单观点：不要错过这一轮牛市。宏观面每一轮牛市的发生，都有一个超级低谷作为前提。2022年是何等的低谷，每一个投资者都能感受得到。疫情反复、经济下滑，外围战事不断、加息疯狂，资本市场真的是苦不堪言。但任何事都会有了结的时刻，几个大的宏观风险，现在基本已经或者即将反转。首先是俄乌战争，资本市场早已钝化，其次是疫情也已经无关痛痒，现在唯一差的，就是全球的加息，尤其是美联储的正式结束。幸运的是，这个结束已经清晰可见，只差5月份会议的官宣。影响股市的两个基本因素，一个是经济基本面，一个是流动性。国内的经济基本面，复苏已成定局，表面上看国内的宏观经济数据似乎并没有太令人激动，但好转的迹象正在一步步呈现，特别是消费层面，“五一”将至，旅游机票酒店的预定数据增强了消费回暖的逻辑。现在市场都在等待两天后公布的2023年一季度的宏观经济数据，考虑到年初疫情放开后出现过一轮全民感染，数据未必很强劲，但基本也可以预见，这应该算是今年的底部了。外围方面，美国经济衰退大概率会出现，对于中国出口会有负面作用。因为作为中国第三大贸易伙伴，2022年如此艰难的情况下，中国出口美国依然高达5368亿美元。不过，中国本身也在扩大和全球其他经济体的联系，努力对冲美国的负面影响。而拉长时间看，即使美国衰退预约而至，根据美联储官员的预计，影响主要在今年，明后两年会走向复苏。所以，熬过今年基本也就没事了。对于中国经济基本面，短期看确实会有一些扰动，但中长期确实没有理由悲观，也不可能再下探到去年的低位。即使一些深层次的问题，例如大国博弈、科技创新，不会马上得到解决，可幸的是，这些问题也不至于再度恶化，而且国家也在努力一步步突围。流动性方面，中国的CPI维持在较低的位置，3月份只有0.7%，这似乎预示着经济仍有待更强劲的复苏，但反过来说，为刺激经济以及继续宽松货币增加更多的可能性。实际上，货币层面已经看到明显的宽松，特别是不久前公布的社融、M2数据，只不过从货币层面到经济的传导需要时间。另外，美联储的激进加息一步步走向终结，也为我们的货币政策提供更多的施展空间。宏观经济处于复苏通道，流动性的大方向是宽松，股市走牛，就有了最基本的支持。微观面微观层面，主要是企业的盈利，恰逢上市公司集体披露一季报。截至今天，A股披露一季度业绩预告的公司超过200家，其中消费股的朗姿股份、燕京啤酒增长非常强劲，其中朗姿股份归母净利润同比增长达到377-566倍，燕京啤酒同比增长71-75倍。虽然看上去极端，但也代表了消费股从去年被疫情压制，到今年放开疫情后强势的反弹态势。而以半导体为代表的科技股，同样显示出强劲的增长态势。典型的是半导体设备商北方华创，预计归母净利润同比增长1.71--2倍。在年初的文章中，我们就多次提及半导体的投资机会，不过彼时主要是基于半导体的库存周期在今年上半年见底，下半年进入上升通道，炒的是周期反转的逻辑。其后出现的chatGPT热潮，加速了半导体的周期反转，更重要的是，chatGPT的大热，也标志着以AI为首的新一轮技术革命进入快车道，这个可以比肩机械化、电气化和信息化，而且比它们规模更大的技术革命，给包括半导体在内的科技行业带来新的增长空间，一个新的蓝海序幕已经徐徐展开。这也是我们不断重复今年的投资主线，数字经济必定是最大的一个的理由。如果说以往中国在科技方面基本都是跟着别人走，但这一次，中国是最有希望成为其中一位领跑者，因为数字经济已经被确立为国家重点发展和扶持的产业，更重要的是，中国在数字经济方面的实力已经大大提高，即使在一些关键技术领域和美国尚有差距，但和全球大部分国家相比，优势还是很明显。虽然A股上也存在不少蹭概念的公司，但总体上看，这一个技术革命，中国出现相对应的真牛股是大概率的，这无疑也为股市走牛提供了更大的可能性。至少从资金面上看，这种拥有广阔增长前景和预期收益的技术革命，是很容易吸引增量资金进入股市的。作为投资者，需要更多地关注这一次的季报，因为这不但会印证国内经济的复苏程度，也会成为预测接下来经济以及上市公司业绩的重要依据，还是验证增量资金进入股市的证据。虽然现在尚未全部公布，过早下结论不可取，但鉴于今年没有已经没有疫情扰动，至少可以肯定，整体上比起去年同期，只会好不会差。而如果最后的结果确实如此的话，上证突围前月高点，只是时间问题。后市走牛无悬念投资界有句名言：未来比过去重要。意思是，股市后面是涨是跌，最重要的是预期。复盘过去一年，有一点是笔者体会最为深刻的，都发生去年10月，美股跌入年内低点，A股港股也是在那个月见底。如果简单的线性思维去看，那时美国的联邦利率并没有很高，经济也还很强劲，但为何早早就跌入低位呢？而国内疫情压力、经济压力又那么大，甚至一度传出外资出现信心危机，快速下跌可以理解，但为何没过几天就强力反弹了呢？难道不应该继续下跌吗？实际上，股市还有另一个特征，就是提前对实体经济做出反应，这种反应通常以半年为常，而且过程当中还会受其他因素的影响，可以加快也可以减慢。去年10月份中美股市的底部，就受到这个规律的影响，现在也一步步得到验证，首先是美国的加息行为，如果今年5月份如期结束，距离去年10月份，正好半年；其次是中国，那一次快速下跌，确实起到了提前见底的作用，当然，11月疫情放开是股市反弹也是最重要的一个因素，如果继续封控，反弹未至于那么快到来。但不管如何，想要股市，不管是A股、港股还是美股，回到去年的底部位置，可能性都不高了，国内经济复苏，流动性宽松就不说了，即使是美股进入“杀盈利”阶段，除非上市公司业绩大面积崩溃，否则很难会出现。3月份银行股暴雷的时候，曾经引发过一轮恐慌，但到现在为止，也没有出现预期中的崩溃现象，摩根大通这种大银行业绩反而大增。指数方面，最受伤的道琼斯波幅在10%左右，而纳斯达克、标普500远低于10%，并且三大指数都已经完全收复3月份跌幅并上涨不少。可以说，现在最大的宏观风险只是美国的经济衰退，如果按照股市提前反应未来的特征，现在交易的正是半年之后。换句话说，股市正在定价半年之后的经济衰退。当然，是否完全定价还有待于其他经济、上市公司数据，以及后续政策的公布，如果这些数据超预期下滑，那股市还是会跟着，如果符合预期，那股市可以持平，但如果超预期向好，反弹就会随时发生。如果用前文所说的两个因素——经济基本面和流动性，美股的流动性紧缩基本被市场定价，唯一差的就是等经济面见底。而中国的情况，要更好一些，因为我们的经济基本面已经见底，并处于回升阶段。结语如果说去年是全球资本市场的崩溃时刻，那今年出现全球资本市场向上共振，应该是最值得期待，也是大概率的事情。现在看，后市走牛的迹象可能还不至于很明显，因为除了AI板块，其他板块都还相对低调，需要一些催化因素，也需要一些时日。但正如风起于青萍之末，浪成于微澜之间，股市不会直接告诉你牛市来了，但既然对于未来的预期向好，估值上又处于低位，表现低调反而是好事，这等于给了投资者上车的机会。如果已经狂飙起来了，机会就没有了。中国人常常说否极泰来，放在股市也是如此。如果说对于今年股市的投资策略，一句话足矣，那就是：不要错过这一轮牛市！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9962194388,"gmtCreate":1669732802644,"gmtModify":1676538232022,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"[难过]&nbsp;","text":"[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962194388","repostId":"1112940262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112940262","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669732242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112940262?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | U.S. stocks mixed, Bilibili rises more than 13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112940262","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月29日，美股开盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.17%，纳指涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.01%。热门中概股集体上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨4.63%。哔哩哔哩涨逾13%，Q3营收58亿元，同比增长11","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 29th, U.S. stocks opened mixed, with the Dow falling 0.17%, the Nasdaq rising 0.04% and the S&P 500 rising 0.01%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8580e2cd73c3d27ce777aae67e0c9d0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Popular Chinese stocks rose collectively, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 4.63%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose by more than 13%, with Q3 revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Direct hiring by BOSS</a>It rose by more than 11%, and Q3 revenue of 1.179 billion yuan exceeded expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Up more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 5%.</p><p>Lordstown Motors rose 6% on news that its first batch of Endurance ™ The pickup truck has left the Ohio plant for delivery to customers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>up 1.37%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An improved version of the Model 3 is being developed to cut costs and make this Model more attractive.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Will sell Canadian banking business for C$13.5 billion and consider distributing Dividend or buybacks.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | U.S. stocks mixed, Bilibili rises more than 13%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-29 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 29th, U.S. stocks opened mixed, with the Dow falling 0.17%, the Nasdaq rising 0.04% and the S&P 500 rising 0.01%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8580e2cd73c3d27ce777aae67e0c9d0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Popular Chinese stocks rose collectively, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 4.63%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose by more than 13%, with Q3 revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Direct hiring by BOSS</a>It rose by more than 11%, and Q3 revenue of 1.179 billion yuan exceeded expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Up more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 5%.</p><p>Lordstown Motors rose 6% on news that its first batch of Endurance ™ The pickup truck has left the Ohio plant for delivery to customers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>up 1.37%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An improved version of the Model 3 is being developed to cut costs and make this Model more attractive.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Will sell Canadian banking business for C$13.5 billion and consider distributing Dividend or buybacks.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4510":"在线教育","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1104":"互动家庭娱乐","BK1575":"同股不同权","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4531":"中概回港概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1587":"次新股","BK4563":"昨日强势股",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4513":"直播概念","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112940262","content_text":"11月29日，美股开盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.17%，纳指涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.01%。热门中概股集体上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨4.63%。哔哩哔哩涨逾13%，Q3营收58亿元，同比增长11%。BOSS直聘涨超11%，Q3营收11.79亿元超预期。京东涨逾7%，拼多多、阿里巴巴涨逾5%。Lordstown Motors涨6%，消息面上，其首批Endurance™皮卡车已离开俄亥俄州工厂向客户交付。特斯拉涨1.37%，特斯拉正开发Model 3改进版，旨在削减成本并提高这款车型的吸引力。汇丰控股涨超4%，汇丰将135亿加元出售加拿大银行业务，并考虑派发股息或回购。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"09626":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BILI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987652923,"gmtCreate":1667899921262,"gmtModify":1676537981822,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987652923","repostId":"1161361872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987022375,"gmtCreate":1667780866497,"gmtModify":1676537961593,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987022375","repostId":"2281614713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914559078,"gmtCreate":1665324980595,"gmtModify":1676537587702,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914559078","repostId":"2274373217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274373217","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665298374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274373217?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-09 14:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Are American \"new forces\" having poor quality control? Rivian recalls almost all cars sold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274373217","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Rivian 表示，这一安全隐患可能导致车轮过度外倾甚至倾斜，在一些极端情况下还会导致车轮与汽车分离，影响司机操控汽车。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Rivian has recalled almost all of its vehicles due to safety concerns caused by loose parts. On Saturday, October 8 local time, US electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian issued a notice stating that a fastener connecting the control arm and steering knuckle on its vehicle may be improperly installed. This problem could cause the wheels to tilt excessively outward or even tilt, and in some extreme cases, it could even cause the wheels to separate from the car, affecting the driver's control of the car. The company decided to recall almost all of its vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, a Rivian spokesperson said the recall involves approximately 13,000 vehicles manufactured by the company between the end of 2021 and September 2022, and there are currently no known casualties related to the potential issue. Rivian estimate,<b>Of the recalled vehicles, 1% were affected by the problem.</b></p><p>The spokesperson also stated that Rivian first began producing cars in September 2021 and had produced more than 15,000 vehicles by the third quarter of this year. The recall affects all three models currently sold by Rivian: electric pickup trucks, SUVs, and commercial delivery vans.</p><p>Rivian emailed all affected customers about the recall, and<b>The financial impact of the recall is expected to be negligible, and all vehicles are expected to be inspected within 30 days.</b></p><p>The recall comes at a critical time for Rivian, which is ramping up production at its Illinois plant to meet its annual production target of 25,000 vehicles.</p><p>Despite Rivian's brilliant IPO last year, the situation is even tougher this year, with supply shortages, particularly in semiconductors, continuing to hinder its production increases and driving up costs. The company's stock price has fallen nearly 67% this year.</p><p>Rivian's stock price was largely flat in after-hours trading following news of the recall late Friday. As of Friday's market close, Rivian's market capitalization was $33.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1320cb93a709ac148d43d4a22676a498\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>According to a notification submitted to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Rivian became aware of the safety hazard in August of this year and subsequently launched an investigation. As of September 28, the company had discovered six cases of loose parts and decided to recall these vehicles.</p><p>In a letter, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe reminded customers to stop driving if they experience any steering problems, adding, \"It's important not to downplay the potential risks and why we're voluntarily conducting the recall.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are American \"new forces\" having poor quality control? Rivian recalls almost all cars sold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre American \"new forces\" having poor quality control? Rivian recalls almost all cars sold\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-09 14:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Rivian has recalled almost all of its vehicles due to safety concerns caused by loose parts. On Saturday, October 8 local time, US electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian issued a notice stating that a fastener connecting the control arm and steering knuckle on its vehicle may be improperly installed. This problem could cause the wheels to tilt excessively outward or even tilt, and in some extreme cases, it could even cause the wheels to separate from the car, affecting the driver's control of the car. The company decided to recall almost all of its vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, a Rivian spokesperson said the recall involves approximately 13,000 vehicles manufactured by the company between the end of 2021 and September 2022, and there are currently no known casualties related to the potential issue. Rivian estimate,<b>Of the recalled vehicles, 1% were affected by the problem.</b></p><p>The spokesperson also stated that Rivian first began producing cars in September 2021 and had produced more than 15,000 vehicles by the third quarter of this year. The recall affects all three models currently sold by Rivian: electric pickup trucks, SUVs, and commercial delivery vans.</p><p>Rivian emailed all affected customers about the recall, and<b>The financial impact of the recall is expected to be negligible, and all vehicles are expected to be inspected within 30 days.</b></p><p>The recall comes at a critical time for Rivian, which is ramping up production at its Illinois plant to meet its annual production target of 25,000 vehicles.</p><p>Despite Rivian's brilliant IPO last year, the situation is even tougher this year, with supply shortages, particularly in semiconductors, continuing to hinder its production increases and driving up costs. The company's stock price has fallen nearly 67% this year.</p><p>Rivian's stock price was largely flat in after-hours trading following news of the recall late Friday. As of Friday's market close, Rivian's market capitalization was $33.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1320cb93a709ac148d43d4a22676a498\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>According to a notification submitted to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Rivian became aware of the safety hazard in August of this year and subsequently launched an investigation. As of September 28, the company had discovered six cases of loose parts and decided to recall these vehicles.</p><p>In a letter, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe reminded customers to stop driving if they experience any steering problems, adding, \"It's important not to downplay the potential risks and why we're voluntarily conducting the recall.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671902\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe1978aa2a9f9f30678043cc1967d5f","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671902","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274373217","content_text":"由于零部件松动带来的安全隐患，Rivian 召回了几乎所有生产的车辆。当地时间10月8日周六，美国电动车制造商 Rivian 发布通知称，连接其车辆上控制臂和转向节的一个紧固件可能安装不当，这一问题可能导致车轮过度外倾甚至倾斜，在一些极端情况下还会导致车轮与汽车分离，影响司机操控汽车。该公司决定召回几乎所有的车辆。据媒体报道，Rivian 的一名发言人表示，此次召回涉及该公司在2021年底至2022年9月期间生产的约1.3万辆汽车，目前还没有已知与该潜在问题有关的人员伤亡。Rivian 估计，在被召回的车辆中，有1%的车辆受到该问题的影响。发言人还称，Rivian 于2021年9月首次开始生产汽车，截至今年第三季度共生产了1.5万多辆汽车。此次召回涉及 Rivian 目前销售的所有三款车型：电动皮卡、SUV和商用送货货车。Rivian 向所有受影响的客户发送了关于召回的电子邮件，并预计召回的财务影响可以忽略不计，并希望在30天内对所有车辆进行检查。此次召回发生在 Rivian 的关键时刻，该公司为了实现2.5万辆的全年生产目标，正在加快其位于伊利诺伊州工厂的生产。尽管 Rivian 去年在IPO中大放异彩，但今年的形势更为艰难，供应方面尤其是半导体的短缺继续阻碍其增产，并推高了成本。该公司股价今年以来下跌了近67%。在周五晚些时候传出召回消息后，Rivian 的股价在盘后交易中基本持平。截至周五收盘，Rivian的市值为337亿美元。根据提交给美国国家公路交通安全管理局的一份通知，今年8月，Rivian 得知了这一安全隐患并随后展开了调查。截至9月28日，该公司发现了6起零部件松动的案例，并决定召回这些车辆。Rivian 首席执行官 RJ Scaringe 一封信中提醒客户，如果遇到任何转向问题请停止驾驶车辆，“重要的是不要淡化潜在风险，以及为什么我们自愿进行召回”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915581412,"gmtCreate":1665069433736,"gmtModify":1676537552719,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915581412","repostId":"1137490856","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911298407,"gmtCreate":1664205286609,"gmtModify":1676537409926,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911298407","repostId":"1112141228","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925535386,"gmtCreate":1672062310645,"gmtModify":1676538628483,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925535386","repostId":"1197453989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197453989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672060910,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197453989?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 21:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs' top ten predictions for the US economy in 2022 were correct seven and a half times.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197453989","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>It's time to look back on the whole year again. How many of Goldman Sachs' ten questions and answers in early 2022 were answered correctly?</p><p>The answer is seven and a half. Compared to its performance in the previous two years (two in 2020 and seven in 2021), Goldman Sachs has performed slightly better this year.</p><p>As Goldman Sachs predicted, the U.S. Congress only passed some of the spending measures proposed by the White House; The decline in the savings rate is insufficient to offset the impact of sharp austerity; US GDP growth was far below general expectations; Although the unemployment rate has declined, it remains low; The Federal Reserve is quite hawkish on rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, and the Fed's Federal Funds rate peak has been revised upward.</p><p>To Goldman Sachs' surprise, wage growth remained at around 5%, and core inflation rose further. Supply chain recovery was delayed due to unexpected shocks, leading to an unexpected rise in inflation.</p><p>Despite the unexpected rise in inflation, Goldman Sachs believes that 2022 was a year in which fiscal and monetary tightening policies successfully applied the brakes and supply and demand returned to balance. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to rate hike again in 2023, bringing interest rates to a peak of 5-5.25% and keeping the adjustment process on track.</p><p>1. Will the U.S. Congress increase spending in 2022?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes, but the impact on 2022 may not be significant.</p><p>Comment: Correct. At the time, Goldman Sachs anticipated that Congress would not pass all the measures of the \"Building Back Better\" bill, particularly the extension of the child tax credit, but would moderately increase spending on manufacturing and supply chain incentives.</p><p>This proved correct, with Congress ultimately passing the Inflation Reduction Act, which focused on clean energy, climate incentives, and health insurance subsidies, as well as the CHIPS and Science Act, which focused on incentivizing the semiconductor manufacturing industry.</p><p>2. Will US GDP growth meet consensus expectations?</p><p>The answer at the beginning of the year: No.</p><p>Comment: Correct. The market consensus was that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 would be 3.4%, but Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast by 1 percentage point.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that fiscal stimulus will decline significantly as the pandemic relief plan expires. Goldman Sachs' latest tracking estimates indicate that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was only 0.6%.</p><p>3. Will the savings rate continue to decline?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. At the time, Goldman Sachs believed that savings rates would decline, households would gradually resume spending on pandemic-sensitive services and use excess savings to offset income losses due to the expiration of pandemic relief programs, as well as limited demand for savings amid record high incomes and low unemployment risks.</p><p>These factors contributed to the savings rate falling by more than 5% to 2.3% in October, exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectations and only slightly above the record low.</p><p>4. Will the unemployment rate fall below the 2019 average of 3.7%?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Almost incorrect. The unemployment rate was as low as 3.5% in September, but has since rebounded to 3.7%, only slightly below the 2019 average.</p><p>The employment-labor gap is an indicator of the tightness of the labor market and a factor contributing to the persistently high level of job vacancies. Although it has fallen significantly from its peak, it still indicates that the labor market is tighter than in 2019.</p><p>5. Will wages maintain their recent growth rate of 5-6%?</p><p>The answer at the beginning of the year: No.</p><p>Comment: Incorrect. Goldman Sachs' payroll tracking system showed a 5.4% increase, instead of the 4% it had previously expected. Wage growth slowed sharply on the pay scale after emergency unemployment benefits expired, but picked up elsewhere.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes there are three main reasons for this change. First, wage growth at the end of 2021 did not decline as previously indicated, as evidenced by the significant revision in average hourly earnings released in early January. Second, labor demand surged in 2022, and the job market remained very tight throughout the year. Third, as further inflationary shocks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, push overall CPI inflation to a peak of 9%, the cost of living for many workers will be higher.</p><p>6. Will the core PCE inflation rate fall below 3%?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Incorrect. At the time, Goldman Sachs expected core PCE inflation to decline sharply, core services inflation to remain roughly stable, and core commodity inflation to decline sharply. It believed that the supply-side recovery would boost production and reverse the price surge caused by shortages.</p><p>Conversely, inflation in core services sectors rose sharply, especially housing inflation. Core commodity inflation has declined, but not as much as Goldman Sachs had expected, with Goldman Sachs forecasting around 5%. This is partly because the impact on global supply earlier this year further delayed supply chain recovery, and signs of deflation have only begun to show in recent months.</p><p>7. Will inflation expectations decline in the near future?</p><p>Goldman Sachs' answer: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. This year, short-term consumer inflation expectations first rose, then fell sharply from their peak as gasoline prices and broader inflationary pressures declined, but remained well above pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, long-term inflation expectations have risen moderately from their sluggish pre-pandemic levels and have remained within the target range since then.</p><p>8. Will the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the funds rate by at least 75 basis points?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. At the start of this year, Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve was hawkish, mainly because Goldman Sachs expects core inflation to remain disturbingly high throughout 2022. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve raised its Federal Funds rate by a cumulative 425 basis points, far exceeding expectations.</p><p>9. Will the Federal Reserve announce the start of balance sheet reduction?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. The Federal Reserve officially launched its shrinking balance sheet in June, with a monthly shrinking balance sheet cap of $47.5 billion from June to August. This pace will double in September, raising the cap to $95 billion, including $60 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), representing approximately 1% of its assets and liabilities.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects the shrinking balance sheet to last until late 2024 or early 2025, with the FOMC slowing down shrinking balance sheet in the final stages to avoid overshooting.</p><p>10. Will the market increase the pricing of policy funding rates?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. Goldman Sachs predicts a final interest rate of 2.5-2.75%, and current market pricing implies a peak of 4.85% in May 2023, about 25 basis points lower than Goldman Sachs' predicted range of 5-5.25%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs' top ten predictions for the US economy in 2022 were correct seven and a half times.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs' top ten predictions for the US economy in 2022 were correct seven and a half times.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-26 21:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>It's time to look back on the whole year again. How many of Goldman Sachs' ten questions and answers in early 2022 were answered correctly?</p><p>The answer is seven and a half. Compared to its performance in the previous two years (two in 2020 and seven in 2021), Goldman Sachs has performed slightly better this year.</p><p>As Goldman Sachs predicted, the U.S. Congress only passed some of the spending measures proposed by the White House; The decline in the savings rate is insufficient to offset the impact of sharp austerity; US GDP growth was far below general expectations; Although the unemployment rate has declined, it remains low; The Federal Reserve is quite hawkish on rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, and the Fed's Federal Funds rate peak has been revised upward.</p><p>To Goldman Sachs' surprise, wage growth remained at around 5%, and core inflation rose further. Supply chain recovery was delayed due to unexpected shocks, leading to an unexpected rise in inflation.</p><p>Despite the unexpected rise in inflation, Goldman Sachs believes that 2022 was a year in which fiscal and monetary tightening policies successfully applied the brakes and supply and demand returned to balance. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to rate hike again in 2023, bringing interest rates to a peak of 5-5.25% and keeping the adjustment process on track.</p><p>1. Will the U.S. Congress increase spending in 2022?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes, but the impact on 2022 may not be significant.</p><p>Comment: Correct. At the time, Goldman Sachs anticipated that Congress would not pass all the measures of the \"Building Back Better\" bill, particularly the extension of the child tax credit, but would moderately increase spending on manufacturing and supply chain incentives.</p><p>This proved correct, with Congress ultimately passing the Inflation Reduction Act, which focused on clean energy, climate incentives, and health insurance subsidies, as well as the CHIPS and Science Act, which focused on incentivizing the semiconductor manufacturing industry.</p><p>2. Will US GDP growth meet consensus expectations?</p><p>The answer at the beginning of the year: No.</p><p>Comment: Correct. The market consensus was that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 would be 3.4%, but Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast by 1 percentage point.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that fiscal stimulus will decline significantly as the pandemic relief plan expires. Goldman Sachs' latest tracking estimates indicate that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was only 0.6%.</p><p>3. Will the savings rate continue to decline?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. At the time, Goldman Sachs believed that savings rates would decline, households would gradually resume spending on pandemic-sensitive services and use excess savings to offset income losses due to the expiration of pandemic relief programs, as well as limited demand for savings amid record high incomes and low unemployment risks.</p><p>These factors contributed to the savings rate falling by more than 5% to 2.3% in October, exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectations and only slightly above the record low.</p><p>4. Will the unemployment rate fall below the 2019 average of 3.7%?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Almost incorrect. The unemployment rate was as low as 3.5% in September, but has since rebounded to 3.7%, only slightly below the 2019 average.</p><p>The employment-labor gap is an indicator of the tightness of the labor market and a factor contributing to the persistently high level of job vacancies. Although it has fallen significantly from its peak, it still indicates that the labor market is tighter than in 2019.</p><p>5. Will wages maintain their recent growth rate of 5-6%?</p><p>The answer at the beginning of the year: No.</p><p>Comment: Incorrect. Goldman Sachs' payroll tracking system showed a 5.4% increase, instead of the 4% it had previously expected. Wage growth slowed sharply on the pay scale after emergency unemployment benefits expired, but picked up elsewhere.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes there are three main reasons for this change. First, wage growth at the end of 2021 did not decline as previously indicated, as evidenced by the significant revision in average hourly earnings released in early January. Second, labor demand surged in 2022, and the job market remained very tight throughout the year. Third, as further inflationary shocks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, push overall CPI inflation to a peak of 9%, the cost of living for many workers will be higher.</p><p>6. Will the core PCE inflation rate fall below 3%?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Incorrect. At the time, Goldman Sachs expected core PCE inflation to decline sharply, core services inflation to remain roughly stable, and core commodity inflation to decline sharply. It believed that the supply-side recovery would boost production and reverse the price surge caused by shortages.</p><p>Conversely, inflation in core services sectors rose sharply, especially housing inflation. Core commodity inflation has declined, but not as much as Goldman Sachs had expected, with Goldman Sachs forecasting around 5%. This is partly because the impact on global supply earlier this year further delayed supply chain recovery, and signs of deflation have only begun to show in recent months.</p><p>7. Will inflation expectations decline in the near future?</p><p>Goldman Sachs' answer: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. This year, short-term consumer inflation expectations first rose, then fell sharply from their peak as gasoline prices and broader inflationary pressures declined, but remained well above pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, long-term inflation expectations have risen moderately from their sluggish pre-pandemic levels and have remained within the target range since then.</p><p>8. Will the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the funds rate by at least 75 basis points?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. At the start of this year, Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve was hawkish, mainly because Goldman Sachs expects core inflation to remain disturbingly high throughout 2022. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve raised its Federal Funds rate by a cumulative 425 basis points, far exceeding expectations.</p><p>9. Will the Federal Reserve announce the start of balance sheet reduction?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. The Federal Reserve officially launched its shrinking balance sheet in June, with a monthly shrinking balance sheet cap of $47.5 billion from June to August. This pace will double in September, raising the cap to $95 billion, including $60 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), representing approximately 1% of its assets and liabilities.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects the shrinking balance sheet to last until late 2024 or early 2025, with the FOMC slowing down shrinking balance sheet in the final stages to avoid overshooting.</p><p>10. Will the market increase the pricing of policy funding rates?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Correct. Goldman Sachs predicts a final interest rate of 2.5-2.75%, and current market pricing implies a peak of 4.85% in May 2023, about 25 basis points lower than Goldman Sachs' predicted range of 5-5.25%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1197453989","content_text":"又到了回首一整年的时候了。高盛2022年初的十问十答，答对了几个呢？答案是七个半，相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。正如高盛所料，美国国会只通过了白宫提出的部分支出措施；储蓄率的下降不足以抵消大幅紧缩的影响；美国GDP增长远低于普遍预期；尽管失业率出现下滑，但仍处于低位；美联储在加息和缩表上颇为鹰派，美联储联邦基金利率峰值有所上调。出乎高盛预料的是，工资增长率保持在5%左右，核心通胀率进一步上升；供应链复苏因意外冲击而推迟，导致通胀意外走高。尽管通胀意外上升，但高盛认为，2022年是财政和货币紧缩政策成功踩下刹车，供需重新走向平衡的一年。高盛预计，美联储将在2023年再度加息，使利率达到5-5.25%的峰值，将调整进程保持在正轨。1、美国国会是否会在2022年提高支出？年初的回答：会，但对2022年的影响可能不大。评论：正确。当时高盛预计，国会不会通过“重建更美好”法案全部措施，特别是不会延长儿童税收抵免，但会适度增加制造业和供应链激励措施的支出。事实证明，这是正确的，国会最终通过了以清洁能源、气候激励以及健康保险补贴为重点的《通胀削减法案》，还有以激励半导体制造业为重点的《CHIPS和科学法案》。2、美国GDP增长会达到共识预期吗？年初的回答：不会。评论：正确。市场一致预期2021年第四季度的GDP增长为3.4%，高盛的预测下调了1个百分点。高盛认为，随着疫情救济计划到期，财政刺激将大幅下降。高盛的最新跟踪估计表明，2022年第四季度GDP增长仅为0.6%。3、储蓄率会继续下降吗？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。当时高盛认为储蓄率会下降，家庭逐渐恢复对疫情敏感的服务支出，并利用多余的储蓄来抵消疫情救助计划到期带来的收入损失，以及在创纪录的高收入和低失业风险中，储蓄需求有限。以上因素促使10月份的储蓄率下降了5%以上，至2.3%，超过了高盛预期，仅略高于历史最低水平。4、失业率是否会降到2019年的平均水平3.7%以下？年初的回答：会。评论：几乎不正确。9月份的失业率低至3.5%，虽然此后回升至3.7%，但仅略低于2019年的平均水平。就业—劳动力缺口是衡量劳动力市场紧张程度的指标，也是导致职位空缺水平巨高不下的一个因素，虽然已从峰值大幅下降，但仍表明劳动力市场比2019年更为紧张。5、工资会保持最近5-6%的增长速度吗？年初的回答：不会。评论：不正确。高盛的工资追踪系统显示增长了5.4%，而不是其之前预期的4%。在紧急失业救济金到期后，工资增长在薪级表上急剧减速，但在其他地方却有所回升。高盛认为，导致这一变化主要有以下三点原因。首先，2021年底工资增长并没有像之前显示那样呈下降趋势，1月初公布的平均小时收入的大幅度修正表明了这一点。第二，2022年劳动力需求激增，就业市场全年都非常紧张。第三，包括俄乌冲突在内的进一步通胀冲击将整体CPI通胀推至9%的峰值时，许多工人的生活成本更高。6、核心PCE通胀率会降到3%以下吗？年初的回答：会。评论：不正确。当时高盛预计核心PCE通胀将大幅下降，核心服务通胀大致保持稳定，核心商品通胀大幅下降，其认为供应端复苏提振生产，会扭转短缺导致的价格飙升。相反，核心服务业通胀大幅上升，尤其是住房通胀。核心商品通胀有所下降，但降幅并没有高盛预期的那么高，高盛的预测在5%左右，这在一定程度上是因为今年早些时候对全球供应的冲击进一步推迟了供应链复苏，近几个月才开始显示通缩迹象。7、近期通胀预期会下降吗？高盛的回答：会。评论：正确。今年，短期消费者通胀预期首先上升，然后随着汽油价格和更广泛的通胀压力下降，从峰值大幅下降，但仍远高于疫情前的水平。相比之下，长期通胀预期从疫情前的低迷水平温和上升，此后一直保持在目标区间内的水平。8、美联储是否会将基金利率的目标范围提高至少75bp？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。今年伊始，高盛对美联储的预测偏鹰派，主要是因为高盛预计核心通胀在2022年全年将维持在令人不安的高位。最终，美联储将联邦基金利率累计提高了425个基点，远超预期。9、美联储是否会宣布开启缩减资产负债表？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。美联储在6月正式启动缩表，6至8月每月缩表上限为475亿美元，而这一速度将在9月开始翻倍，上限提高至950亿美元，其中包括600亿的美国国债和350亿的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），约占资产负债规模的1%。高盛预计缩表将持续到2024年底或2025年初，FOMC将在最后阶段放慢缩表的步伐，以避免超调。10、市场会增加政策资金利率的定价吗？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。高盛预测最终利率为2.5-2.75%，现在的市场定价意味着2023年5月将达到4.85%的峰值，比高盛预测的区间5-5.25%低大约25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919202638,"gmtCreate":1663805167224,"gmtModify":1676537338822,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919202638","repostId":"1155005906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155005906","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663804173,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155005906?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 07:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Full text of the Federal Reserve's decision: review: The finish line of tightening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155005906","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体现联储持续紧缩的决心。虽然点阵图只是当期的预期而不代表未来的政策，但短期依旧打消了市场对联储快速转向宽松的念头。Mikko的笔记终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The increase in terminal interest rates to over 4.5% reflects the Federal Reserve's determination to continue tightening. Although the dot plot only provides current expectations and does not represent future policies, it still dispels market expectations that the Fed will quickly shift to easing in the short term.</p><p><b>Mikko's Notes</b></p><p><ul><li>terminal interest rate<b>The increase to over 4.5% reflects the Fed's determination to continue tightening.</b>。</p><p></li><li>Although dot plots only reflect current expectations and do not represent future policies, in the short term...<b>This still dispelled market expectations that the Fed would quickly shift to easing.</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>Inflation remains the top priority.</b>During the Q&A session at the press conference, Powell directly stated that he still maintains his position from when he was in Jackson Hole.</p><p></li><li>Before the midterm elections,<b>The Federal Reserve delivered an extremely \"politically correct\" economic forecast.</b>The unemployment forecast has only been slightly raised, but it remains concerned.<b>\"soft landing\"</b>expectation.</p><p></li><li>...Can such a low job market and economic growth sacrifice rate be exchanged for reaching the target inflation level? Judging from the statements of most committee members, they believe their predictions are highly uncertain.<b>The risk of rising unemployment may have been underestimated.</b>。</p><p></li><li>The reporter who asked questions at the press conference was very concerned about when the Federal Reserve would end its rate hike and the conditions for shifting to easing, but Powell gave a more official answer, saying, \"Listening to your words is like listening to your own words.\"<b>Avoiding and refusing to give clear forward-looking guidance</b>。</p><p></li><li>A reporter sarcastically asked, \"Since you said meeting by meeting, will the next meeting be 75 basis points?\"<b>This indirectly reflects the poor quality of information at the current press conference and the Fed's extremely limited policy communication. I could hardly find any valuable incremental information in the press conference.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>I discovered the price had risen incorrectly that day...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f751934d89dd7c949d82f41aeeb03317\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Full Statement</b></p><p>Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.</p><p>Recent economic indicators suggest modest growth in spending and production. In recent months, job growth has been strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains high, reflecting pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances, rising food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.</p><p>Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing enormous human and economic difficulties. The war and related events are putting additional upward pressure on inflation and putting pressure on global economic activity. The Committee attaches great importance to the risk of inflation.</p><p>The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.</p><p>The committee seeks to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term. To support these objectives, the Committee decided to increase the target range for Federal Funds rate to 3% to 3.25% (75 basis points) and expects to continue raising the interest rate range. In addition, the committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond, institutional debt, and MBS, as described in the \"Plan to Reduce the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet\" released in May. The committee is firmly committed to restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target.</p><p>In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the achievement of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.</p><p>In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of new information on the economic outlook. If risks arise that could hinder the achievement of the Committee's objectives, the Committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate. The committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations, as well as financial and international developments.</p><p><b>Economic forecast</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c73a4dcc5fcf604676bf0eab20256c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b658dae5a3a91751339721e530fdb79\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Unemployment forecasts are highly uncertain and risk of being revised upwards...</p><p><b>dot plot</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99efed7d925872793abdd652a9c8adfc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Press Conference Q&A</b></p><p>Q1. The Fed will<b>When to slow down rate hike</b>And what factors will be considered when deciding to stop rate hike?</p><p><b>I will not answer your question directly.</b>。 (Repeating the same thing) First, I want to emphasize that the Federal Reserve's purpose has not changed since the Jackson Hole meeting. The Federal Reserve will maintain tightening until inflation subsides. Specifically, in order to bring inflation below 2%, we need 1) economic growth below trend and 2) a balance between supply and demand in the labor market. We have already achieved the former, but we still need to work on the latter. Therefore, we need to raise Federal Funds rate to the level of austerity. (Regarding factors for stopping rate hike) First, we will track whether economic growth is below trend, second, the labor supply is more balanced, and finally, there is concrete evidence that inflation has fallen to 2%. Regarding interest rate cuts, we will only consider them after inflation has actually dropped to 2%. Q2. How does the Federal Reserve consider the impact of monetary policy on inflation?<b>Time delay</b></p><p>Monetary policy does indeed have a time lag. I believe that monetary policy transmits financial conditions very quickly, and sometimes financial conditions even precede the announcement of monetary policy. Financial conditions will quickly begin to affect the real economy, usually within one to two months. However, the transmission of financial conditions to inflation may take some time.<b>We will pay attention to this</b>This is why I mentioned at the beginning: \"As the monetary stance continues to tighten, we will consider the impact of the overall monetary stance on the economy and inflation, and consider slowing rate hike.\" Follow-up: Will the Federal Reserve maintain linear rate hike, or will it stop rate hike and maintain it for a period of time to reflect on the impact of monetary policy on the economy?</p><p>It's difficult to say what the Federal Reserve's rate hike path will be after that. (Repeating the same thing) Our aim is to maintain austerity until inflation disappears. What you can read from the SEP is what the FOMC governors consider the appropriate interest rate level at this point in time, and this will change over time. It is possible that we will maintain interest rates at a certain level, but we have not yet reached that level.<b>I believe we have just reached the lower edge of what can be called austerity levels.</b>。 The FOMC and I both agree that we still need to continue (rate hike). In Q3, the unemployment rate for next year reached 4.4% in September. Historically, this level of unemployment has led to economic recessions.<b>Can this prediction be interpreted as the Federal Reserve being unlikely to achieve a soft landing?</b>。 Is it necessary to tighten monetary policy so much?</p><p>In the SEP, the Federal Reserve predicts a moderate increase in the unemployment rate. This is mainly because the current economic situation is very different from the past. First, the number of job vacancies is very high compared to the number of job seekers. Therefore, unlike in the past, the decline in job vacancies can coexist with a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Secondly, long-term inflation expectations remain stable. This means it will be easier to bring down inflation. Finally, inflation is partly due to supply-side shocks, such as the pandemic, economic reopening, and the Russia-Ukraine war. There is now evidence that supply shocks are easing: for example, commodity prices are starting to fall. We have always believed that restoring price stability while achieving a soft landing is very challenging. We do not know whether rate hike will lead to an economic recession, which is influenced by a variety of factors.<b>If monetary policy is more restrictive for longer, the likelihood of a soft landing will also decrease.</b>。 However, our goal is to reduce inflation. Follow up: Is job vacancy rate still an important indicator for considering the labor market?</p><p><b>Yes</b>。 Currently, the job vacancy rate remains at 2:1, which is a very good indicator of the tightness of the labor market. The unemployment rate is generally considered the best labor market indicator in other economic cycles. Both have always had value in measuring the labor market. Q4. What factors are considered in determining the terminal interest rate? If you want interest rates to be higher than inflation, what is current inflation?</p><p><b>I believe the Federal Reserve needs to raise its real policy rate to a positive level.</b>This will exert meaningful downward pressure on inflation. We will observe broad financial conditions, such as interest rates, credit spreads, financial credit indices, and so on. We discussed this in today's meeting, as well as in previous meetings.<b>All real interest rates across the entire interest rate curve need to be raised to positive values.</b>。 This is exactly what SEP predicts. *Q5. You once said that the Federal Reserve's decisions are made meeting by meeting. Currently, the rate hike path appears to be 75 50 25.<b>So, will the Federal Reserve rate hike by 75 basis points at its next meeting?</b></p><p>The FOMC does indeed make a decision at each meeting, and this time the Fed's decision was a 75 basis point rate hike. The median rate hike path shown by SEP is indeed 125 basis points in rate hike before the end of the year, but the same group of board members believe that 100 basis points in rate hike is also possible. (As for whether the rate hike is 75bp below), we will decide at the next meeting. All I can say is that the Federal Reserve will reach the level of tightening, and at a very rapid pace. Follow up: Why is the Federal Reserve continuing its frontload rate hike despite recession risks? Is it because CPI data shows a lack of progress in resolving inflation, or because the labor market remains tight?</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects inflation to decline due to easing supply. However, although the supply side has eased somewhat, inflation has not declined. Core PCE shows that inflation rates were 4.8%, 4.5%, and 4.8% at 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month annualized rates, respectively. This is a good summary of inflation, and it's also an inflation situation we don't want to see. This tells us that we need to continue rate hike until the policy interest rate reaches what we consider appropriate levels. *Q6. How do we understand that inflation in the SEP will not return to 2% until 2025, but the dot plot shows that interest rate cuts will begin in 2024?<b>Does this mean the Federal Reserve can tolerate inflation rates above 2%?</b></p><p>The SEP forecasts core inflation of 2.1% and headline inflation of 2.0% for 2025, which is roughly in line with the inflation target.<b>But it is indeed higher than 2%.</b>。 Follow up: Why wasn't rate hike 100bp included in this meeting?</p><p>In both the last and this press conferences, I have said that the Federal Reserve's decisions will be based on aggregate data. Inflation figures were unexpectedly low in July, while those for August were unexpectedly high. We don't want to overreact to a single data point. As we mentioned before, the core interest rate has been above 4.5% (Q5 Follow up). We don't need to look at any more data to know that inflation is already too high. The FOMC will raise the policy interest rate to a tighter level and maintain it until we are confident that inflation has subsided. Q7. You mentioned that MBS might be sold. Will the current cooling of the real estate market and rising mortgage rates affect the rate of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on MBS?</p><p>Our original statement was that shrinking balance sheet would consider this option when it entered the later stages.<b>However, we will not consider it at this time.</b>Q8. How should we view the issue of global austerity leading to a global economic recession? Will there be international cooperation in this regard?</p><p>I have just returned from the Basel meeting on global central banks with several FOMC colleagues. We (central banks in various regions) each have our own domestic goals to achieve, but at the same time we all maintain close contact. Our forecasts and decisions will try to take the international economy into account, but we will certainly not be perfect. Regarding international cooperation, due to different interest rate levels and situations in different regions, cooperation is out of the question.<b>We don't cooperate; it's more about information sharing and exchange.</b>Q9. Why is the economy so strong? Does this mean the Federal Reserve needs to set higher terminal interest rates?</p><p>Yes, the labor market is very strong, but in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, such as the real estate market, we can see the role of rate hike: reduced economic activity and declining house prices. rate hike plays a role in both interest rate-sensitive consumption and imports and exports (through exchange rate transmission). However, the economy is also very strong, people have savings from COVID-19 accumulation and government transfers, and the government has a lot of cash.<b>We believe the economic growth trend is around 1.8%.</b>However, the actual economy is indeed below the trend. Of course, it is possible that the economy is stronger (than the data suggests), which is a good thing, meaning that the economy will not suffer a more severe recession. However, our focus is only on bringing inflation down to below 2%. Q10. Is a recession more likely? Is the resulting job loss in the labor market worthwhile?</p><p><b>I don't know the likelihood of a recession.</b>。 It is very likely that economic growth will be below trend for some time, and we are seeing it now. The Federal Reserve's expected economic growth of 0.2% this year is very low, while its expected growth of 1.2% next year is also significantly below trend. But this is what we need. People are suffering because of inflation. If we want a stronger labor market, we must first bring down inflation. I also wish there was an easier way, but there isn't. Therefore, what the Federal Reserve needs to do is raise interest rates to a tightening level.<b>We have not yet completely ruled out the possibility of exchanging lower unemployment for lower inflation.</b>Follow up: Given the data retrospective and the time lag in monetary policy, how does the Federal Reserve know whether tightening is excessive?</p><p>It's difficult to answer. Q11. How can we explain to the public why the labor market must suffer the pain?</p><p>(Repeating the same thing) See previous FOMC press conferences. Q12. How long will the American people have to endure economic hardship?</p><p>It depends on when inflation falls. Reiterate why we need to fight inflation. Follow up: What are the economic hardships, such as job losses and rising credit card interest rates?</p><p>Including all of these, higher interest rates, slower economic growth, and a lax labor market will all bring economic suffering, but none of them will be as suffering as persistent inflation. Q13. Existing home sales have declined for the seventh consecutive month, and mortgage rates have reached their highest level since 2008. However, loan demand increased this month, while real estate prices remained stubbornly low. In your June press conference, you mentioned resetting the housing market. Could you please describe in detail what \"reset\" means and the related measures taken by the Federal Reserve?</p><p>The restart does not refer to a definitive set of data, but simply to the fact that the U.S. housing market experienced a very hot period. At that time, the purchase price of new homebuyers was often 10% higher than the initial bid, resulting in a serious imbalance between supply and demand and a rapid rise in prices. The current slowdown in house price increases will help house prices reach a level more in line with other real estate fundamentals such as rents. In the long run, we hope for a balance between supply and demand—home prices can rise at a reasonable rate, and people can afford to buy homes again. Therefore, I believe we need a \"correction\" to reach this state. In the long run, the real estate market also has some problems. For example, it is now difficult to find land close to the city, and it is also more difficult for real estate developers to buy land, building materials, and workers. However, from a business cycle perspective, this difficulty will help the real estate market reach a better state. Follow up: Will housing cost price inflation decline?</p><p><b>I believe housing cost price inflation will remain high.</b>。 We hope it will fall, but we are not sure when it will happen. We can only prepare for two scenarios: assuming housing costs remain high. Q14.4.6% What is the degree of tightening?</p><p>If we reach this level, which is likely, we will subtract some inflation forecast from it to calculate the degree of tightening, and this level should be positive and probably around 1%. I don't know exactly what it will be, but it must be significantly higher than zero. I would also like to say that the Federal Reserve's actual rate hike path and forecasts may differ, but they will certainly be enough to restore price stability.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Full text of the Federal Reserve's decision: review: The finish line of tightening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFull text of the Federal Reserve's decision: review: The finish line of tightening\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-22 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The increase in terminal interest rates to over 4.5% reflects the Federal Reserve's determination to continue tightening. Although the dot plot only provides current expectations and does not represent future policies, it still dispels market expectations that the Fed will quickly shift to easing in the short term.</p><p><b>Mikko's Notes</b></p><p><ul><li>terminal interest rate<b>The increase to over 4.5% reflects the Fed's determination to continue tightening.</b>。</p><p></li><li>Although dot plots only reflect current expectations and do not represent future policies, in the short term...<b>This still dispelled market expectations that the Fed would quickly shift to easing.</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>Inflation remains the top priority.</b>During the Q&A session at the press conference, Powell directly stated that he still maintains his position from when he was in Jackson Hole.</p><p></li><li>Before the midterm elections,<b>The Federal Reserve delivered an extremely \"politically correct\" economic forecast.</b>The unemployment forecast has only been slightly raised, but it remains concerned.<b>\"soft landing\"</b>expectation.</p><p></li><li>...Can such a low job market and economic growth sacrifice rate be exchanged for reaching the target inflation level? Judging from the statements of most committee members, they believe their predictions are highly uncertain.<b>The risk of rising unemployment may have been underestimated.</b>。</p><p></li><li>The reporter who asked questions at the press conference was very concerned about when the Federal Reserve would end its rate hike and the conditions for shifting to easing, but Powell gave a more official answer, saying, \"Listening to your words is like listening to your own words.\"<b>Avoiding and refusing to give clear forward-looking guidance</b>。</p><p></li><li>A reporter sarcastically asked, \"Since you said meeting by meeting, will the next meeting be 75 basis points?\"<b>This indirectly reflects the poor quality of information at the current press conference and the Fed's extremely limited policy communication. I could hardly find any valuable incremental information in the press conference.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>I discovered the price had risen incorrectly that day...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f751934d89dd7c949d82f41aeeb03317\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Full Statement</b></p><p>Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.</p><p>Recent economic indicators suggest modest growth in spending and production. In recent months, job growth has been strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains high, reflecting pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances, rising food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.</p><p>Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing enormous human and economic difficulties. The war and related events are putting additional upward pressure on inflation and putting pressure on global economic activity. The Committee attaches great importance to the risk of inflation.</p><p>The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.</p><p>The committee seeks to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term. To support these objectives, the Committee decided to increase the target range for Federal Funds rate to 3% to 3.25% (75 basis points) and expects to continue raising the interest rate range. In addition, the committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond, institutional debt, and MBS, as described in the \"Plan to Reduce the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet\" released in May. The committee is firmly committed to restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target.</p><p>In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the achievement of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.</p><p>In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of new information on the economic outlook. If risks arise that could hinder the achievement of the Committee's objectives, the Committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate. The committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations, as well as financial and international developments.</p><p><b>Economic forecast</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c73a4dcc5fcf604676bf0eab20256c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b658dae5a3a91751339721e530fdb79\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Unemployment forecasts are highly uncertain and risk of being revised upwards...</p><p><b>dot plot</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99efed7d925872793abdd652a9c8adfc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Press Conference Q&A</b></p><p>Q1. The Fed will<b>When to slow down rate hike</b>And what factors will be considered when deciding to stop rate hike?</p><p><b>I will not answer your question directly.</b>。 (Repeating the same thing) First, I want to emphasize that the Federal Reserve's purpose has not changed since the Jackson Hole meeting. The Federal Reserve will maintain tightening until inflation subsides. Specifically, in order to bring inflation below 2%, we need 1) economic growth below trend and 2) a balance between supply and demand in the labor market. We have already achieved the former, but we still need to work on the latter. Therefore, we need to raise Federal Funds rate to the level of austerity. (Regarding factors for stopping rate hike) First, we will track whether economic growth is below trend, second, the labor supply is more balanced, and finally, there is concrete evidence that inflation has fallen to 2%. Regarding interest rate cuts, we will only consider them after inflation has actually dropped to 2%. Q2. How does the Federal Reserve consider the impact of monetary policy on inflation?<b>Time delay</b></p><p>Monetary policy does indeed have a time lag. I believe that monetary policy transmits financial conditions very quickly, and sometimes financial conditions even precede the announcement of monetary policy. Financial conditions will quickly begin to affect the real economy, usually within one to two months. However, the transmission of financial conditions to inflation may take some time.<b>We will pay attention to this</b>This is why I mentioned at the beginning: \"As the monetary stance continues to tighten, we will consider the impact of the overall monetary stance on the economy and inflation, and consider slowing rate hike.\" Follow-up: Will the Federal Reserve maintain linear rate hike, or will it stop rate hike and maintain it for a period of time to reflect on the impact of monetary policy on the economy?</p><p>It's difficult to say what the Federal Reserve's rate hike path will be after that. (Repeating the same thing) Our aim is to maintain austerity until inflation disappears. What you can read from the SEP is what the FOMC governors consider the appropriate interest rate level at this point in time, and this will change over time. It is possible that we will maintain interest rates at a certain level, but we have not yet reached that level.<b>I believe we have just reached the lower edge of what can be called austerity levels.</b>。 The FOMC and I both agree that we still need to continue (rate hike). In Q3, the unemployment rate for next year reached 4.4% in September. Historically, this level of unemployment has led to economic recessions.<b>Can this prediction be interpreted as the Federal Reserve being unlikely to achieve a soft landing?</b>。 Is it necessary to tighten monetary policy so much?</p><p>In the SEP, the Federal Reserve predicts a moderate increase in the unemployment rate. This is mainly because the current economic situation is very different from the past. First, the number of job vacancies is very high compared to the number of job seekers. Therefore, unlike in the past, the decline in job vacancies can coexist with a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Secondly, long-term inflation expectations remain stable. This means it will be easier to bring down inflation. Finally, inflation is partly due to supply-side shocks, such as the pandemic, economic reopening, and the Russia-Ukraine war. There is now evidence that supply shocks are easing: for example, commodity prices are starting to fall. We have always believed that restoring price stability while achieving a soft landing is very challenging. We do not know whether rate hike will lead to an economic recession, which is influenced by a variety of factors.<b>If monetary policy is more restrictive for longer, the likelihood of a soft landing will also decrease.</b>。 However, our goal is to reduce inflation. Follow up: Is job vacancy rate still an important indicator for considering the labor market?</p><p><b>Yes</b>。 Currently, the job vacancy rate remains at 2:1, which is a very good indicator of the tightness of the labor market. The unemployment rate is generally considered the best labor market indicator in other economic cycles. Both have always had value in measuring the labor market. Q4. What factors are considered in determining the terminal interest rate? If you want interest rates to be higher than inflation, what is current inflation?</p><p><b>I believe the Federal Reserve needs to raise its real policy rate to a positive level.</b>This will exert meaningful downward pressure on inflation. We will observe broad financial conditions, such as interest rates, credit spreads, financial credit indices, and so on. We discussed this in today's meeting, as well as in previous meetings.<b>All real interest rates across the entire interest rate curve need to be raised to positive values.</b>。 This is exactly what SEP predicts. *Q5. You once said that the Federal Reserve's decisions are made meeting by meeting. Currently, the rate hike path appears to be 75 50 25.<b>So, will the Federal Reserve rate hike by 75 basis points at its next meeting?</b></p><p>The FOMC does indeed make a decision at each meeting, and this time the Fed's decision was a 75 basis point rate hike. The median rate hike path shown by SEP is indeed 125 basis points in rate hike before the end of the year, but the same group of board members believe that 100 basis points in rate hike is also possible. (As for whether the rate hike is 75bp below), we will decide at the next meeting. All I can say is that the Federal Reserve will reach the level of tightening, and at a very rapid pace. Follow up: Why is the Federal Reserve continuing its frontload rate hike despite recession risks? Is it because CPI data shows a lack of progress in resolving inflation, or because the labor market remains tight?</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects inflation to decline due to easing supply. However, although the supply side has eased somewhat, inflation has not declined. Core PCE shows that inflation rates were 4.8%, 4.5%, and 4.8% at 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month annualized rates, respectively. This is a good summary of inflation, and it's also an inflation situation we don't want to see. This tells us that we need to continue rate hike until the policy interest rate reaches what we consider appropriate levels. *Q6. How do we understand that inflation in the SEP will not return to 2% until 2025, but the dot plot shows that interest rate cuts will begin in 2024?<b>Does this mean the Federal Reserve can tolerate inflation rates above 2%?</b></p><p>The SEP forecasts core inflation of 2.1% and headline inflation of 2.0% for 2025, which is roughly in line with the inflation target.<b>But it is indeed higher than 2%.</b>。 Follow up: Why wasn't rate hike 100bp included in this meeting?</p><p>In both the last and this press conferences, I have said that the Federal Reserve's decisions will be based on aggregate data. Inflation figures were unexpectedly low in July, while those for August were unexpectedly high. We don't want to overreact to a single data point. As we mentioned before, the core interest rate has been above 4.5% (Q5 Follow up). We don't need to look at any more data to know that inflation is already too high. The FOMC will raise the policy interest rate to a tighter level and maintain it until we are confident that inflation has subsided. Q7. You mentioned that MBS might be sold. Will the current cooling of the real estate market and rising mortgage rates affect the rate of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on MBS?</p><p>Our original statement was that shrinking balance sheet would consider this option when it entered the later stages.<b>However, we will not consider it at this time.</b>Q8. How should we view the issue of global austerity leading to a global economic recession? Will there be international cooperation in this regard?</p><p>I have just returned from the Basel meeting on global central banks with several FOMC colleagues. We (central banks in various regions) each have our own domestic goals to achieve, but at the same time we all maintain close contact. Our forecasts and decisions will try to take the international economy into account, but we will certainly not be perfect. Regarding international cooperation, due to different interest rate levels and situations in different regions, cooperation is out of the question.<b>We don't cooperate; it's more about information sharing and exchange.</b>Q9. Why is the economy so strong? Does this mean the Federal Reserve needs to set higher terminal interest rates?</p><p>Yes, the labor market is very strong, but in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, such as the real estate market, we can see the role of rate hike: reduced economic activity and declining house prices. rate hike plays a role in both interest rate-sensitive consumption and imports and exports (through exchange rate transmission). However, the economy is also very strong, people have savings from COVID-19 accumulation and government transfers, and the government has a lot of cash.<b>We believe the economic growth trend is around 1.8%.</b>However, the actual economy is indeed below the trend. Of course, it is possible that the economy is stronger (than the data suggests), which is a good thing, meaning that the economy will not suffer a more severe recession. However, our focus is only on bringing inflation down to below 2%. Q10. Is a recession more likely? Is the resulting job loss in the labor market worthwhile?</p><p><b>I don't know the likelihood of a recession.</b>。 It is very likely that economic growth will be below trend for some time, and we are seeing it now. The Federal Reserve's expected economic growth of 0.2% this year is very low, while its expected growth of 1.2% next year is also significantly below trend. But this is what we need. People are suffering because of inflation. If we want a stronger labor market, we must first bring down inflation. I also wish there was an easier way, but there isn't. Therefore, what the Federal Reserve needs to do is raise interest rates to a tightening level.<b>We have not yet completely ruled out the possibility of exchanging lower unemployment for lower inflation.</b>Follow up: Given the data retrospective and the time lag in monetary policy, how does the Federal Reserve know whether tightening is excessive?</p><p>It's difficult to answer. Q11. How can we explain to the public why the labor market must suffer the pain?</p><p>(Repeating the same thing) See previous FOMC press conferences. Q12. How long will the American people have to endure economic hardship?</p><p>It depends on when inflation falls. Reiterate why we need to fight inflation. Follow up: What are the economic hardships, such as job losses and rising credit card interest rates?</p><p>Including all of these, higher interest rates, slower economic growth, and a lax labor market will all bring economic suffering, but none of them will be as suffering as persistent inflation. Q13. Existing home sales have declined for the seventh consecutive month, and mortgage rates have reached their highest level since 2008. However, loan demand increased this month, while real estate prices remained stubbornly low. In your June press conference, you mentioned resetting the housing market. Could you please describe in detail what \"reset\" means and the related measures taken by the Federal Reserve?</p><p>The restart does not refer to a definitive set of data, but simply to the fact that the U.S. housing market experienced a very hot period. At that time, the purchase price of new homebuyers was often 10% higher than the initial bid, resulting in a serious imbalance between supply and demand and a rapid rise in prices. The current slowdown in house price increases will help house prices reach a level more in line with other real estate fundamentals such as rents. In the long run, we hope for a balance between supply and demand—home prices can rise at a reasonable rate, and people can afford to buy homes again. Therefore, I believe we need a \"correction\" to reach this state. In the long run, the real estate market also has some problems. For example, it is now difficult to find land close to the city, and it is also more difficult for real estate developers to buy land, building materials, and workers. However, from a business cycle perspective, this difficulty will help the real estate market reach a better state. Follow up: Will housing cost price inflation decline?</p><p><b>I believe housing cost price inflation will remain high.</b>。 We hope it will fall, but we are not sure when it will happen. We can only prepare for two scenarios: assuming housing costs remain high. Q14.4.6% What is the degree of tightening?</p><p>If we reach this level, which is likely, we will subtract some inflation forecast from it to calculate the degree of tightening, and this level should be positive and probably around 1%. I don't know exactly what it will be, but it must be significantly higher than zero. I would also like to say that the Federal Reserve's actual rate hike path and forecasts may differ, but they will certainly be enough to restore price stability.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670882\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670882","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155005906","content_text":"终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体现联储持续紧缩的决心。虽然点阵图只是当期的预期而不代表未来的政策，但短期依旧打消了市场对联储快速转向宽松的念头。Mikko的笔记终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体现联储持续紧缩的决心。虽然点阵图只是当期的预期而不代表未来的政策，但短期依旧打消了市场对联储快速转向宽松的念头。通胀仍然是第一要务，鲍威尔发布会问答时直接表态目前依然维持自己在杰克逊霍尔时的立场。在中期选举以前，联储交出了一份极为“政治正确”的经济预测，仅小幅上调了失业预测，仍然心怀“软着陆”预期。……如此低的就业市场和经济增长牺牲率就能换到达标的通胀水平吗？从多数委员的表态来看，他们认为自己的预测有很大的不确定性，或有可能低估了失业率的上行风险。发布会提问的记者非常关注联储何时停止加息以及转向宽松的条件，但鲍威尔祭出了“听君一席话，如听一席话”式的官话回答，回避并拒绝给出明确的前瞻指引。一位记者极为讽刺地问了“既然你说meeting by meeting，那下一个meeting是不是75bp？”的问题，侧面反映了当前发布会信息量的低劣质量以及联储极为受限的政策沟通。我几乎无法在发布会中找到什么有价值的增量信息。市场反应当天就发现涨错了……声明全文Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.最近的经济指标表明支出和生产温和增长。近几个月来，就业增长强劲，失业率一直保持在低位。通货膨胀率仍然居高不下，反映出与疫情有关的供需失衡、粮食和能源价格上涨以及更广泛的价格压力。Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.俄乌冲突正在造成巨大的人类和经济困难。战争和相关事件正在给通货膨胀带来额外的上行压力，并给全球经济活动带来了压力。委员会高度重视通货膨胀风险。The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.委员会寻求在长期实现充分就业和2%的通货膨胀率。为了支持这些目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间范围提高到3%至3.25%（75个基点），并预计将继续提高利率区间。此外，委员会将继续减少其持有的国债、机构债务和MBS，如5月份发布的《缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划》所述。委员会坚定地致力于将通胀率恢复到2%的目标。In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测新进信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策的立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括公共卫生、劳动力市场状况、通胀压力和通胀预期以及金融和国际发展的读数。经济预测失业预测有极大不确定性与上调风险……点阵图发布会Q&AQ1. 美联储将何时减缓加息，并在决定停止加息时会考虑哪些因素？我不会正面回答你的问题。（车轱辘话）首先我要强调美联储的宗旨自Jackson Hole会议以来没有变化。美联储会保持紧缩直至通胀消弭。具体来说，为了将通胀降至2%以下，我们需要1）经济增长低于趋势，2）劳动力市场供需平衡。前者我们已经达到，而后者我们仍需努力。因此我们需要将联邦基金利率提升至紧缩的水平。（关于停止加息的因素）首先我们会跟踪经济增长是否在趋势之下，其次劳动力供给更加平衡，最后有切实证据表明通胀降低至2%。关于降息，我们只有在通胀切实降低至2%后才会考虑。Q2.美联储如何考虑（货币政策）对于通胀效果的时滞性？货币政策的确有时滞性。我认为货币政策对金融状况的传导十分迅速，有时金融状况还会领先货币政策的公布。金融状况会很快开始影响实体经济，通常在一到两个月之内。但是金融状况对通胀的传导可能需要一定时间。我们会注意这一点，这也是为什么在开场时我提到：“随着货币立场继续收紧，我们会考虑整体货币立场对经济与通胀的影响，并考虑减缓加息。”Follow up：美联储会一直线性加息，还是会停止加息并保持一段时间，以反思货币政策对经济的影响？很难说美联储之后的加息路径如何。（车轱辘话）我们的宗旨是保持紧缩直至通胀消弭。从SEP中你可以读到的是FOMC理事们在这个时间节点认为合适的利率水平，而这会随时间变化而变化。我们有可能会维持利率在某一水平，但我们目前还没有达到该水平。我认为我们目前刚刚达到能称之紧缩水平的下沿。FOMC与我的观点都是我们还需要继续（加息）。Q3.SEP中明年的失业率达到了4.4%。历史上来说这一水平的失业率都会导致经济衰退。是否可以把这一预测理解为美联储不可能达成软着陆。货币政策是否有必要如此紧缩？SEP中，美联储预测失业率会有适中（moderate）的增长。这主要是目前的经济状况与过去迥异。首先岗位空缺相较求职者数量很高，因此与过去不同，岗位空缺的下降可以与失业率小幅上升并存。其次长期通胀预期稳定。这意味着拉低通胀更加轻松。最后，通胀部分是由于供给侧冲击，比如疫情、经济解封以及俄乌战争。而目前有证据表明供给冲击有缓解的迹象：比如商品价格开始下降。我们一直认为恢复价格稳定的同时达成软着陆非常具有挑战性。我们不知道加息是否会导致经济衰退，受多种因素影响。如果货币政策要紧缩更久（more restrictive for longer），软着陆的可能也会降低。但是我们的宗旨是降低通胀。Follow up：职位空缺率是否仍是考虑劳动力市场的重要指标是的。目前职位空缺率仍是2：1，是衡量劳动力市场松紧度非常好的指标（very good ways）。在其他经济周期中失业率一般被认为是最好的劳动力市场指标。两者在衡量劳动力市场方面一直具有价值（have value）Q4.如何决定终端利率，会考虑哪些因素。如果希望利率高于通胀，目前通胀是多少？我认为美联储需要将实际政策利率提升到正值，从而对通胀产生有意义的拉低压力。我们会观察广义金融状况，比如利率，信用利差，金融信用指数等等。我们今天的会议，以及之前的会议都讨论过，需要将整个利率曲线的所有实际利率都提升至正值。SEP所预测的即是如此。*Q5.您曾说美联储的决策是一会一决策（meeting by meeting）。目前看起来加息路径是75 50 25。那么在下一场会议中美联储会加息75bp嘛？FOMC的确在每场会议做一个决策，本次美联储的决策即加息75bp。SEP显示的加息路径中值的确是年底前再加息125bp，但同样一群理事认为再加息100bp也是可能的。（至于下面是否加息75bp），我们会在下一场会议中决定。我只能说美联储会达到紧缩水平，并以很快的速率达成。Follow up：为什么美联储不顾衰退风险，坚持继续加息（frontload），是由于CPI数据显示通胀问题的解决进度堪忧（lack of progress），还是因为劳动力市场仍然紧张？美联储的预期是由于供给的缓和，通胀会下降。但是虽然供给端有所缓解，但通胀没有下降。核心PCE显示按3个月，6个月以及12个月的年化率，通胀率分别为4.8%，4.5%与4.8%。这是对通胀很好的总结，也是我们不希望看见的通胀情况。这告诉我们需要继续加息，直到政策利率达到我们认为合适的水平。*Q6.我们如何理解在SEP中通胀直到2025仍未返回2%，但点阵图显示2024年就会开始降息。这是否意味着美联储可以容忍高于2%的通胀率？SEP预测的2025年核心通胀为2.1%，总体通胀为2.0%，与通胀目标相差无几，但确实高于2%。Follow up：为什么这次会议没有加息100bp？在上次与这次新闻发布会中，我都说过美联储的决策将基于总体的数据。在7月通胀的数据出乎意料地低，而8月的通胀数据则出乎意料地高。我们不希望对单个数据点做过激反应。我们之前讲过核心利率一直高于4.5%（Q5 Follow up）我们不需要看更多数据就知道通胀已经太高了。而FOMC将提升政策利率至紧缩水平并维持，直至我们确信通胀已经消弭。Q7.你曾提到可能会出售MBS。当前房地产市场降温、按揭贷款利率上行的情况是否会影响美联储在MBS方面缩表的速率？我们的原话是缩表进入后期后会考虑这一选项，但是目前我们不会考虑。Q8.如何看待全球紧缩会导致全球经济衰退的问题。在这方面是否会有国际合作？我与FOMC几位同事刚刚从Basel关于全球央行的会议回来。我们（各地央行）都有各自的本土目标需要完成，但同时都保持着密切的联系。我们做的预测与决策会尽量将国际经济纳入考量范围，但我们做的一定不够完美。关于国际合作，由于各地有不同的利率水平，情况不同，合作无从谈起。我们没有合作，更多是信息共享与交流。Q9.为什么经济这么强劲，这是否意味着美联储需要设定更高的终端利率？是的，劳动力市场非常强劲，但在利率敏感的行业，如房地产市场，我们可以看到加息发挥的作用：经济活动减少，房价下行。加息对于利率敏感的消费，进出口（通过汇率传导）都有所作用。但是同样，经济十分强劲，人们有来自新冠积累以及政府转移支付的储蓄，政府现金很多。我们认为的经济增长趋势在1.8%左右，而实际经济的确低于趋势。当然有可能经济（比数据显示的）更加强劲，这是好事，意味着经济不会遭受更严重的衰退。但是我们关注的只有将通胀拉低至低于2%。Q10.衰退是否更有可能发生了。因此导致的劳动力市场工作流失是否值得？我不知道衰退的可能性几何。非常可能的是经济增长在一段时间内会在趋势之下，而我们现在也看到了。美联储预期的今年经济增长为0.2%，是很低的水平，而明年预期的增长为1.2%，也显著低于趋势。但是这是我们需要的。人们正因为通胀而遭受苦难。如果我们想要一个更强劲的劳动力市场，必须先拉低通胀。我也希望有更加轻松的方式，但没有。所以美联储需要做的是提升利率至紧缩水平。我们也还没有完全否定以较少的失业率上升换取通胀的下降的可能性。Follow up：由于数据后视，而货币政策也有时滞，美联储如何知道紧缩是否过激？很难回答。Q11.如何向公众解释为什么劳动力市场必须遭受苦难（suffer the pain）？（车轱辘话）见前几次FOMC新闻发布会。Q12.美国人民需要经历多长时间的经济苦难？取决于通胀什么时候下降。重申为什么要抗击通胀。Follow up：有哪些经济上的苦难，比如工作流失，信用卡利率上升。包含所有这些，更高的利率，经济增长减缓，劳动力市场松弛都会带来经济上的苦难，但都不及通胀久居不下所带来的苦难。Q13.成屋销售已经第7个月连续下降，按揭贷款利率也达到了自2008年以来的高点。然而本月贷款需求增加，而房地产价格仍然久居不下。在6月份的新闻发布会中您提到要重启（reset）房地产市场，是否可以详细描述“重启”的含义，以及美联储相关的措施。重启并不是指一套明确的数据，只是说美国房地产市场经历了一段非常火热的时期。那时一手房购房者的购买价常常比开始的出价高10%，供需严重失衡，价格上涨过快。目前房屋价格上涨的减缓会帮助房屋价格达到一个与租金等其他房地产基本面更加相符的水平。长期来说，我们希望供需能够平衡——房屋价格可以以合理的速率上升，人们也可以再次买得起房。因此我认为我们需要一个“调整”（correction）来达到这一状态。长期来说房地产市场也有一些问题，比如现在很难找到离城市近的土地，房产商也更难买到土地、建房材料以及工人。但从商业周期的角度，这种困难会帮助房地产市场达到一个更好的状态。Follow up：住房成本价格通胀率是否会下降？我认为住房成本价格通胀率仍然会保持高位。我们希望它下降，但是不确定何时会发生。我们只能做两手准备，对于住房成本假设它会保持在高位。Q14.4.6%是何种紧缩程度？如果我们达到了这一水平，而这是可能的（likely），为了计算紧缩程度，我们会将其减去某种通胀的预测指标，而这一水平应当为正，并可能大概在1%左右。我也不知道具体会是多少，但一定是大幅高于0的。我还要说的是美联储的实际加息路径和预测可能会不同，但一定足以恢复价格稳定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932148677,"gmtCreate":1662905244099,"gmtModify":1676537160618,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932148677","repostId":"1156732473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156732473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662864340,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156732473?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-11 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Another \"gold-buying frenzy\" has emerged! \"A difficult summer for gold,\" yet giants are making their moves!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156732473","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。尽管美元的持续走强给黄金带来不小压力，但更喜欢逆势布局的外资巨头们，却已开始出手，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>What does the move by foreign giants mean? Industry analysts believe that the current pessimistic expectations in the gold market are being fully priced in by the market, and gold may see a window of opportunity for a bottoming out and rebound in the future. Despite the continued strengthening of the US dollar putting considerable pressure on gold, foreign giants who prefer to buck the trend have already begun to take action, significantly increasing their holdings of gold ETFs.</p><p>According to the latest semi-annual reports of funds, private equity products from Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, appeared on the list of the top ten holders of several gold ETFs. Data shows that as of the end of June this year, Bridgewater (China) Investment Management Co., Ltd. held a total of 214 million units of Bosera Gold ETF, Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, with a market value of 814 million yuan.</p><p>What does the move by foreign giants mean? Industry analysts believe that the current pessimistic expectations in the gold market are being fully priced in by the market, and gold may see a window of opportunity for a bottoming out and rebound in the future.</p><p><b>Major institutions have stepped in to purchase gold.</b></p><p>According to the Bosera Gold ETF's semi-annual report, as of the end of the first half of the year, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Equity Fund No. 3, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Equity Fund No. 1, and Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Equity Fund No. 2 held 46.6248 million, 9.2942 million, and 8.7106 million units of the fund respectively, ranking as its second, fifth, and sixth largest holders.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e9ebb320e0c5cf942975e5d8f6409\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The three funds mentioned above from Bridgewater China also appeared on the list of top ten holders of HuaAn Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d923e513e32f394e52f117fd17238ef7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f132a9df386c1583a50ba16302ccabe1\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In fact, besides Bridgewater Associates, many domestic and foreign institutions are also \"buying up\" gold ETFs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>He also appeared in Bosera Gold ETF and Huaan Gold Easy ETF, holding 4.4452 million and 21.1 million units of these two ETFs respectively.</p><p>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>It appeared on the Bosera Gold ETF at the same time as Guosheng Securities, holding a total of 25.67 million units; Xingquan Youxuan Aggressive Three-Month Holding Period Hybrid Fund-of-Funds and Huashang Jiayue Steady Retirement Target One-Year Holding Period Hybrid Initiated Fund-of-Funds (FOF) are the ninth and tenth largest holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF, respectively.</p><p>Public information shows that all three gold ETFs have achieved positive returns this year. Especially during the first quarter, with the volatility of global stock and commodity markets, gold's safe-haven function became prominent, and gold ETFs achieved good returns as a result.</p><p><b>Gold prices fall into a short-term slump</b></p><p>It is worth noting that, against the backdrop of continuously rising inflation, central banks in Europe and the United States have generally adopted more aggressive monetary policies to respond.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June this year saw a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points, marking the largest single rate hike in nearly 30 years, the dot plot showed that the subsequent rate hike path was relatively aggressive. Coupled with the Fed's official shrinking balance sheet in June, US real interest rates rebounded sharply in the second quarter, causing international gold prices to continue to be under pressure and weaken in the second quarter.</p><p>In response, the World Gold Council described the performance of gold prices over the past month as \"a difficult summer for gold.\" Statistics from the World Gold Council show that as of August, gold prices fell 2% month-on-month to $1,715.9 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The rebound that began in mid-July failed to break through the resistance level of $1,800 per ounce before losing momentum again in mid-August.</p><p>Data also shows that, in terms of overall holdings, global gold ETFs saw an outflow of 51 tons in August, consistent with the performance of gold prices. This marks the fourth consecutive month that gold ETFs have experienced outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91085dcbf94672dadd6ad1d385fbd9ec\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The World Gold Council believes that this performance occurred against the backdrop of continued rise in yields and a stronger dollar, and the underlying reason is that the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to further tighten monetary policy.</p><p><b>Buying on dips may be a good strategy.</b></p><p>On the evening of September 8, Beijing time, the European Central Bank held its monetary policy meeting and announced a 75 basis point increase in its three key interest rates. The adjusted rates will take effect on September 14. The European Central Bank stated that the current inflation rate remains too high and expects further rate hike to curb inflation.</p><p>In response, a research report from Huatai Futures stated that although the European Central Bank held rate hike as scheduled and the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials remained unchanged, the significant increase in holdings of gold ETFs by well-known funds such as Bridgewater shows that institutions still have demand for gold asset allocation, and gold can be appropriately allocated on dips.</p><p>Statistics from the World Gold Council show that two-thirds of the cumulative inflows into gold ETFs between January and April this year have been offset by recent outflows. Nevertheless, the World Gold Council still believes that gold trading volume is expected to rebound in September.</p><p>“In August, gold trading volume fell to $109 billion per day, far below July levels ($149 billion) and the monthly average for the second quarter ($126 billion). As market activity picks up, we will continue to monitor futures positions and ETF flows,” the World Gold Council stated, adding that these two indicators are key to observing gold market sentiment. They also anticipate that seasonal factors will lead to increased consumer demand and may also boost gold trading levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600016\">Minsheng Bank</a>Financial markets analyst Tang Xiangbin believes that in the short term, international gold prices will still be suppressed by the strength of the US dollar. Currently, international gold prices are still in a state of bottoming out and are expected to gradually rebound after the fourth quarter. \"International gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $1,680 and $1,740 per ounce ahead of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. After the September policy meeting concludes, international gold prices are expected to rebound. It is recommended to enter the market when international gold prices are under pressure to fall below $1,720.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Another \"gold-buying frenzy\" has emerged! \"A difficult summer for gold,\" yet giants are making their moves!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnother \"gold-buying frenzy\" has emerged! \"A difficult summer for gold,\" yet giants are making their moves!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-11 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>What does the move by foreign giants mean? Industry analysts believe that the current pessimistic expectations in the gold market are being fully priced in by the market, and gold may see a window of opportunity for a bottoming out and rebound in the future. Despite the continued strengthening of the US dollar putting considerable pressure on gold, foreign giants who prefer to buck the trend have already begun to take action, significantly increasing their holdings of gold ETFs.</p><p>According to the latest semi-annual reports of funds, private equity products from Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, appeared on the list of the top ten holders of several gold ETFs. Data shows that as of the end of June this year, Bridgewater (China) Investment Management Co., Ltd. held a total of 214 million units of Bosera Gold ETF, Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, with a market value of 814 million yuan.</p><p>What does the move by foreign giants mean? Industry analysts believe that the current pessimistic expectations in the gold market are being fully priced in by the market, and gold may see a window of opportunity for a bottoming out and rebound in the future.</p><p><b>Major institutions have stepped in to purchase gold.</b></p><p>According to the Bosera Gold ETF's semi-annual report, as of the end of the first half of the year, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Equity Fund No. 3, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Equity Fund No. 1, and Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Equity Fund No. 2 held 46.6248 million, 9.2942 million, and 8.7106 million units of the fund respectively, ranking as its second, fifth, and sixth largest holders.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e9ebb320e0c5cf942975e5d8f6409\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The three funds mentioned above from Bridgewater China also appeared on the list of top ten holders of HuaAn Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d923e513e32f394e52f117fd17238ef7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f132a9df386c1583a50ba16302ccabe1\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In fact, besides Bridgewater Associates, many domestic and foreign institutions are also \"buying up\" gold ETFs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>He also appeared in Bosera Gold ETF and Huaan Gold Easy ETF, holding 4.4452 million and 21.1 million units of these two ETFs respectively.</p><p>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>It appeared on the Bosera Gold ETF at the same time as Guosheng Securities, holding a total of 25.67 million units; Xingquan Youxuan Aggressive Three-Month Holding Period Hybrid Fund-of-Funds and Huashang Jiayue Steady Retirement Target One-Year Holding Period Hybrid Initiated Fund-of-Funds (FOF) are the ninth and tenth largest holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF, respectively.</p><p>Public information shows that all three gold ETFs have achieved positive returns this year. Especially during the first quarter, with the volatility of global stock and commodity markets, gold's safe-haven function became prominent, and gold ETFs achieved good returns as a result.</p><p><b>Gold prices fall into a short-term slump</b></p><p>It is worth noting that, against the backdrop of continuously rising inflation, central banks in Europe and the United States have generally adopted more aggressive monetary policies to respond.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June this year saw a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points, marking the largest single rate hike in nearly 30 years, the dot plot showed that the subsequent rate hike path was relatively aggressive. Coupled with the Fed's official shrinking balance sheet in June, US real interest rates rebounded sharply in the second quarter, causing international gold prices to continue to be under pressure and weaken in the second quarter.</p><p>In response, the World Gold Council described the performance of gold prices over the past month as \"a difficult summer for gold.\" Statistics from the World Gold Council show that as of August, gold prices fell 2% month-on-month to $1,715.9 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The rebound that began in mid-July failed to break through the resistance level of $1,800 per ounce before losing momentum again in mid-August.</p><p>Data also shows that, in terms of overall holdings, global gold ETFs saw an outflow of 51 tons in August, consistent with the performance of gold prices. This marks the fourth consecutive month that gold ETFs have experienced outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91085dcbf94672dadd6ad1d385fbd9ec\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The World Gold Council believes that this performance occurred against the backdrop of continued rise in yields and a stronger dollar, and the underlying reason is that the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to further tighten monetary policy.</p><p><b>Buying on dips may be a good strategy.</b></p><p>On the evening of September 8, Beijing time, the European Central Bank held its monetary policy meeting and announced a 75 basis point increase in its three key interest rates. The adjusted rates will take effect on September 14. The European Central Bank stated that the current inflation rate remains too high and expects further rate hike to curb inflation.</p><p>In response, a research report from Huatai Futures stated that although the European Central Bank held rate hike as scheduled and the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials remained unchanged, the significant increase in holdings of gold ETFs by well-known funds such as Bridgewater shows that institutions still have demand for gold asset allocation, and gold can be appropriately allocated on dips.</p><p>Statistics from the World Gold Council show that two-thirds of the cumulative inflows into gold ETFs between January and April this year have been offset by recent outflows. Nevertheless, the World Gold Council still believes that gold trading volume is expected to rebound in September.</p><p>“In August, gold trading volume fell to $109 billion per day, far below July levels ($149 billion) and the monthly average for the second quarter ($126 billion). As market activity picks up, we will continue to monitor futures positions and ETF flows,” the World Gold Council stated, adding that these two indicators are key to observing gold market sentiment. They also anticipate that seasonal factors will lead to increased consumer demand and may also boost gold trading levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600016\">Minsheng Bank</a>Financial markets analyst Tang Xiangbin believes that in the short term, international gold prices will still be suppressed by the strength of the US dollar. Currently, international gold prices are still in a state of bottoming out and are expected to gradually rebound after the fourth quarter. \"International gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $1,680 and $1,740 per ounce ahead of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. After the September policy meeting concludes, international gold prices are expected to rebound. It is recommended to enter the market when international gold prices are under pressure to fall below $1,720.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670050\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670050","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156732473","content_text":"外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。尽管美元的持续走强给黄金带来不小压力，但更喜欢逆势布局的外资巨头们，却已开始出手，大幅加仓黄金ETF。根据最新披露的基金半年报，全球最大对冲基金桥水旗下私募产品现身多只黄金ETF的前十大持有人名单。数据显示，截至今年6月底，桥水（中国）投资管理有限公司持有博时黄金ETF、华安黄金易ETF和易方达黄金ETF合计2.14亿份，持有市值达8.14亿元。外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。各大机构纷纷出手购金博时黄金ETF半年报显示，截至上半年末，桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金三号、桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金一号和桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金二号分别持有该基金4662.48万份、929.42万份和871.06万份，分列其第二、第五和第六大持有人。桥水中国的上述3只基金也出现在华安黄金易ETF和易方达黄金ETF的十大持有人名单中。实际上，除了桥水基金，多家内外资机构也在“扫货”黄金ETF。巴克莱银行同时现身博时黄金ETF和华安黄金易ETF，对这两只ETF的持有份额分别为444.52万份和2110万份。此外，中信证券、广发证券、华泰证券和国盛证券同时现身博时黄金ETF，合计持有2567万份；兴全优选进取三个月持有期混合型基金中基金和华商嘉悦稳健养老目标一年持有期混合型发起式基金中基金(FOF)则分列华安黄金易ETF第九和第十大持有人。公开资料显示，今年以来，上述3只黄金ETF均取得正收益。尤其是第一季度期间，伴随着全球股市及商品市场的震荡，黄金的避险功能凸显，黄金ETF也因此获得不错的收益。金价短期陷入低迷值得关注的是，在通胀持续走高的背景下，欧美央行普遍采取更为激进的货币政策来应对。今年6月美联储议息会议大幅加息 75个基点，创下近30年以来最大幅度的单次加息后，点阵图显示后续加息路径较为激进，叠加美联储6月正式开启缩表，美国实际利率在二季度出现大幅回升，导致国际金价二季度持续承压走弱。对此，世界黄金协会用“黄金艰难的夏天”来形容刚刚过去的这1个月的金价表现。来自世界黄金协会的统计显示，截至8月，金价环比走低，下跌2%至1715.9美元/盎司，已是连续第5个月下跌。而自7月中旬开始的反弹在未能突破1800美元/盎司的阻力位后，在8月中旬再度失去动力。数据同时显示，从整体持仓看，8月全球黄金ETF流出51吨，与金价表现相一致，这也是黄金ETF连续第4个月出现外流。世界黄金协会分析认为，这一表现是在收益率持续上升和美元走强的背景下出现的，背后原因正是因为美联储重申了其进一步收紧货币政策的承诺。逢低配置或是良策北京时间9月8日晚，欧洲央行召开货币政策会议，宣布将三大关键利率上调75个基点，调整后的利率将于9月14日生效。欧洲央行表示，当前通胀率仍过高，预计后续将进一步加息以抑制通胀。对此，华泰期货的研报称，虽然欧洲央行如期加息，美联储官员的鹰派态度也不曾改变，但从桥水等知名基金大举增持黄金ETF的动作可以看出，目前机构对于黄金资产的配置仍存需求，黄金可适当逢低多配。世界黄金协会的统计显示，今年1至4月份之间黄金ETF累计流入量的三分之二已被近期的流出相抵消。尽管如此，世界黄金协会仍认为，黄金交易量有望在9月份出现回升。“在8月，黄金的交易量降至每天1090亿美元，远低于7月份的水平（1490亿美元）和第二季度的月均值（1260亿美元）。随着市场活动的回升，我们将继续关注期货头寸和ETF流量。”世界黄金协会表示，这两个指标是观察黄金市场情绪的关键指标。他们也预计，随着季节性因素的影响，将导致消费者需求增加，也可能使得黄金的交易水平提升。民生银行金融市场部分析师汤湘滨认为，短期看国际金价依然受美元强势的压制，目前国际金价还处于底部震荡状态，四季度后有望逐步反弹。“预计在美联储9月议息会议前，国际金价仍会在每盎司1680美元至1740美元这一底部区间震荡。而在9月议息会议靴子落地后，预计国际金价将转向反弹，建议在国际金价承压回落至1720美元下方时入场。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938573900,"gmtCreate":1662643274300,"gmtModify":1676537107986,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938573900","repostId":"1195538213","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195538213","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1662643000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195538213?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-08 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Could the iPhone 14 help Apple return to its $3 trillion market capitalization?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195538213","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"苹果内部芯片为公司的利润空间提供了更大的灵活性。北京时间9月8日凌晨，苹果召开新品发布会，iPhone 14如期而至。9月7日苹果股价小幅收涨0.93%至155.96美元，市值2.51万亿美元。202","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Internal chips provide greater flexibility for the company's profit margins. In the early hours of September 8th, Beijing time, Apple held a new product launch event, and the iPhone 14 arrived as scheduled. On September 7, Apple's stock price closed slightly up 0.93% to $155.96, with a market capitalization of $2.51 trillion.</p><p>On January 3, 2022, Apple's market capitalization once exceeded $3 trillion during trading, but this breakthrough performance could not be sustained - since the beginning of the year, Apple's stock price has fallen by 11.81%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by 16.50% during the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e816e3749b86d8f7b10e36a184474c3a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple stock price chart</p><p>The iPhone 14 is crucial for Apple because one of the challenges the company is facing is how the broader economic environment will affect demand for the iPhone and other products in the future—factors such as rising interest rates, rising fuel costs, supply chain pressures, and a soaring dollar have put tech companies, including Apple, to the test this year.</p><p>Specifically for iPhone products, it's a crossroads. In a report ahead of the new product launch event, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote that globally, a weak macroeconomy will dampen consumer demand for new products, and Apple's shipments of 220 million iPhones in fiscal year 2023 may be at a low level. However, in the key Chinese market, about 30% of iPhone consumers are in the product upgrade cycle window, and potential Pro/Pro Max series consumers are expected to continue to push up the average selling price of iPhones.</p><p>Prior to the September launch event, rumors about a price increase for the iPhone 14 persisted. The result is that the iPhone 14 starts at $799, the iPhone 14 Plus starts at $899, and the iPhone 14 Pro starts at $999. Daniel Ives told Barron's that maintaining the iPhone's price is a \"shocking thing,\" arguing that Apple's internal chips provide greater flexibility for the company's profit margins.</p><p>In addition to the iPhone, the launch event also unveiled new products such as the Apple Watch and AirPods Pro. However, the Apple Car, which the market has been looking forward to for years, is still a mirage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9405a7922d06b5ebe5269bd99e9e3c71\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The iPhone remains strong, but where is its margin?</b></p><p>The iPhone is Apple's main source of revenue.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>。 In a report in April of this year, Barron's pointed out that the company's stock price actually depends on the annual sales volume of iPhones.</p><p>In fiscal year 2021, Apple achieved revenue of $365.817 billion and net profit of $94.7 billion; Among them, iPhone revenue increased by 39% year-on-year to $191.973 billion, accounting for 52.48% of total revenue.</p><p>This helped Apple get off to a perfect start in early 2022. On January 3, Apple's market capitalization briefly exceeded $3 trillion, becoming the first publicly traded company in history to break through this mark. Barron's reported that Apple's stock price rose at the beginning of the year because people underestimated the strong demand for the iPhone 13. Wall Street once believed that the iPhone 13 was less important than the iPhone 12 because the latter was Apple's first 5G product; However, demand for new phones in China has been at an all-time high, laying the foundation for the company's potential profitability.</p><p>Apple's Q3 2022 fiscal year report shows that in the nine months ending June 25, 2022, iPhone product revenue reached $162.863 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.37%. Revenue accounted for 53.54%, a slight decrease from 54.20% in the same period last year.</p><p>Based on this growth rate, iPhone's revenue performance in fiscal year 2022 cannot surpass that of the previous fiscal year. Therefore, the importance of the iPhone 14 is self-evident. Apple's stock price began to decline in April of this year, and even fell below $130 on June 16; It briefly returned above $170 in August before starting a downward trend.</p><p>The launch of new models often stimulates the purchasing desire of Apple fans—for example, some consumers choose to buy new models directly or trade in their old ones, while others settle for the second best option and choose to buy models from the year before the price reduction. Compared to the iPhone 13, the iPhone 14 does not introduce any disruptive new features other than adding crash detection and satellite communication. The biggest highlight is the design of the iPhone 14 Pro, which abandons the previous notch screen, adds Dynamic Island functionality, and uses the A16 Bionic chip.</p><p>The basis for this optimistic assumption is, on the one hand, that American consumers really love Apple. Maurice Klaehne, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told Barron's on September 2 that as of the second quarter of 2022, the iPhone accounted for more than half of the active smartphones in the United States. Over the past four years, the migration of users from Android to iOS has continued to strengthen. Klein said, \"The new iPhone 14 will help Apple continue to gain market share in the U.S. in the coming quarters.\" The iPhone's collaboration with other products and the entire iOS ecosystem create value for consumers.</p><p>The United States is Apple's most important market. In fiscal year 2021, the U.S. market achieved revenue of $133.803 billion, a growth rate of 23%, accounting for 36.58% of total revenue.</p><p>During the same period, revenue in the Chinese market was about half that of the United States, at $68.366 billion; However, it cannot be ignored that the nearly 70% year-on-year revenue growth in the Chinese market is another important reason why the market remains optimistic about Apple. In the first nine months of fiscal year 2022, Apple achieved revenue of $58.73 billion in the Chinese market, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. According to Guo Tianxiang, senior analyst at IDC China, in the first half of 2022, Apple already held a 70.5% share of the domestic high-end market priced above $600.</p><p>If Daniel Ives' analysis holds true, and 30% or even more Chinese iPhone users have completed their model upgrades, Apple's stock price will likely be boosted. But achieving this goal is not easy. According to IDC statistics, Apple's smartphone market share has remained stable at 10.2%-23.4% in the past two years, making it the world's third-largest smartphone manufacturer. In the high-end smartphone segment where Apple operates, Huawei recently released the Mate 50 series, which clearly provides consumers with new options.</p><p>Barron's reports that new products could have a significant impact on the company in the coming quarters, but a surge in Apple's stock price after the launch event is unlikely. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Apple's stock price fell by an average of 0.46% on the day the iPhone launch event ended, tracked over 21 previous days.</p><p>On September 7, Apple's stock price rose slightly by 0.93% to close at $155.96.</p><p><b>Apple's car manufacturing might not be as practical as the Apple Watch.</b></p><p>At its press conference on September 8th, Apple still made no mention of car manufacturing. Barron's believes it is too early to incorporate Apple's huge market share in car manufacturing into its sales model and reflect it in its valuation.</p><p>However, perhaps thanks to Apple's strong market influence and brand appeal, the Apple Car has begun to capture consumers' minds even before it has been officially announced, designed, and produced. On September 2, a report by market research firm Strategic Vision on the consumption intentions of new car buyers showed that 26% of respondents said they would \"definitely consider\" Apple cars when buying a car.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>(TM.N) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda Motor</a>(HMC.N) is more popular than Apple, at 38% and 32% respectively;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>(F.N) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.O) ranked fourth and fifth with 21% and 20% respectively. Alexander Edwards, president of the agency, said that automakers should be worried that Apple is taking away consumer favor. \"For example, more than 50% of Tesla owners said they would 'definitely' consider a future Apple car.\"</p><p>This may not be a bad thing for Apple. After all, based on the stable performance of the iPhone, relying on car manufacturing to achieve a second growth curve does not seem so unrealistic on the consumer side.</p><p>But the real question is, how exactly is Apple going to manufacture cars? Should you build your own factory and assemble it, or outsource it to a car manufacturer? Does it manufacture commercial vehicles or passenger vehicles? Should we go for a pure battery route or a hybrid route? Are we going to develop autonomous driving?</p><p>The latest news is that Desi Ujkashevic, an executive who worked at Ford for 31 years, joined Apple in April of this year as a senior director. Public information shows that during her tenure at Ford Motor Company, she participated in projects such as the Ford Explorer, Lincoln MKC, Lincoln AVIATOR, Ford Escape, and Ford electric vehicles.</p><p>In contrast to the Apple Car, Apple spent nearly 40 minutes introducing the Apple Watch at the launch event (it took about an hour to introduce the iPhone). If this metric is not used rigorously, then Apple's performance in the wearable device sector in the coming quarters may be more likely to show investors the potential for earnings growth.</p><p>Besides the regular upgrades to the Apple Watch Series 8 and the launch of the cheaper Apple Watch SE, one of the biggest highlights of the launch event was the unveiling of the Apple Watch Ultra. This watch, starting at RMB 6,299, is designed for extreme outdoor environments. It uses a 64-bit dual-core S8 chip, W3 wireless chip, and U1 chip, and is equipped with two GPS bands: L1 core and L5, fully demonstrating Apple's attributes as a technology company.</p><p>In fiscal year 2021, Apple's revenue from wearables, smart home and accessories reached $38.367 billion, surpassing revenue from Mac and iPad products, with revenue growing by 25% year-over-year. Many market observers believe that Apple's wearable devices can leverage the iPhone's massive user base to increase penetration. According to IDC data, global wearable device shipments reached 533.6 million units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 20%. Apple holds the largest market share at 30.3%, followed by Xiaomi and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>They ranked second and third with market shares of 10.2% and 9.0%, respectively.</p><p>According to Nasdaq statistics, based on the 12-month target prices given to Apple by 25 analysts over the past three months, the average target price is $183.12, with the highest and lowest estimates being $220 and $136, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198806e5a050e0fc3613e1a5f4ccb654\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple Target Price Forecast</p><p>Source: Nasdaq</p><p>Credit Suisse believes that Apple's broader ecosystem continues to be supported by services and a growing installation base, while the company is working to address supply constraints. Growing macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and a repricing of a strong dollar could negatively impact product demand and prompt Wall Street analysts to lower their revenue forecasts for Apple. The bank lowered its price target for Apple from $169 to $166 and maintained its neutral rating on the stock.</p><p>Wedbush pointed out that Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>It is the top choice for investing in technology stocks at the end of this year. For Apple, the problems related to China and the supply chain seem to have peaked, and the focus now is on iPhone 14 production and demand.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could the iPhone 14 help Apple return to its $3 trillion market capitalization?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould the iPhone 14 help Apple return to its $3 trillion market capitalization?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-08 21:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Internal chips provide greater flexibility for the company's profit margins. In the early hours of September 8th, Beijing time, Apple held a new product launch event, and the iPhone 14 arrived as scheduled. On September 7, Apple's stock price closed slightly up 0.93% to $155.96, with a market capitalization of $2.51 trillion.</p><p>On January 3, 2022, Apple's market capitalization once exceeded $3 trillion during trading, but this breakthrough performance could not be sustained - since the beginning of the year, Apple's stock price has fallen by 11.81%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by 16.50% during the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e816e3749b86d8f7b10e36a184474c3a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple stock price chart</p><p>The iPhone 14 is crucial for Apple because one of the challenges the company is facing is how the broader economic environment will affect demand for the iPhone and other products in the future—factors such as rising interest rates, rising fuel costs, supply chain pressures, and a soaring dollar have put tech companies, including Apple, to the test this year.</p><p>Specifically for iPhone products, it's a crossroads. In a report ahead of the new product launch event, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote that globally, a weak macroeconomy will dampen consumer demand for new products, and Apple's shipments of 220 million iPhones in fiscal year 2023 may be at a low level. However, in the key Chinese market, about 30% of iPhone consumers are in the product upgrade cycle window, and potential Pro/Pro Max series consumers are expected to continue to push up the average selling price of iPhones.</p><p>Prior to the September launch event, rumors about a price increase for the iPhone 14 persisted. The result is that the iPhone 14 starts at $799, the iPhone 14 Plus starts at $899, and the iPhone 14 Pro starts at $999. Daniel Ives told Barron's that maintaining the iPhone's price is a \"shocking thing,\" arguing that Apple's internal chips provide greater flexibility for the company's profit margins.</p><p>In addition to the iPhone, the launch event also unveiled new products such as the Apple Watch and AirPods Pro. However, the Apple Car, which the market has been looking forward to for years, is still a mirage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9405a7922d06b5ebe5269bd99e9e3c71\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The iPhone remains strong, but where is its margin?</b></p><p>The iPhone is Apple's main source of revenue.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>。 In a report in April of this year, Barron's pointed out that the company's stock price actually depends on the annual sales volume of iPhones.</p><p>In fiscal year 2021, Apple achieved revenue of $365.817 billion and net profit of $94.7 billion; Among them, iPhone revenue increased by 39% year-on-year to $191.973 billion, accounting for 52.48% of total revenue.</p><p>This helped Apple get off to a perfect start in early 2022. On January 3, Apple's market capitalization briefly exceeded $3 trillion, becoming the first publicly traded company in history to break through this mark. Barron's reported that Apple's stock price rose at the beginning of the year because people underestimated the strong demand for the iPhone 13. Wall Street once believed that the iPhone 13 was less important than the iPhone 12 because the latter was Apple's first 5G product; However, demand for new phones in China has been at an all-time high, laying the foundation for the company's potential profitability.</p><p>Apple's Q3 2022 fiscal year report shows that in the nine months ending June 25, 2022, iPhone product revenue reached $162.863 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.37%. Revenue accounted for 53.54%, a slight decrease from 54.20% in the same period last year.</p><p>Based on this growth rate, iPhone's revenue performance in fiscal year 2022 cannot surpass that of the previous fiscal year. Therefore, the importance of the iPhone 14 is self-evident. Apple's stock price began to decline in April of this year, and even fell below $130 on June 16; It briefly returned above $170 in August before starting a downward trend.</p><p>The launch of new models often stimulates the purchasing desire of Apple fans—for example, some consumers choose to buy new models directly or trade in their old ones, while others settle for the second best option and choose to buy models from the year before the price reduction. Compared to the iPhone 13, the iPhone 14 does not introduce any disruptive new features other than adding crash detection and satellite communication. The biggest highlight is the design of the iPhone 14 Pro, which abandons the previous notch screen, adds Dynamic Island functionality, and uses the A16 Bionic chip.</p><p>The basis for this optimistic assumption is, on the one hand, that American consumers really love Apple. Maurice Klaehne, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told Barron's on September 2 that as of the second quarter of 2022, the iPhone accounted for more than half of the active smartphones in the United States. Over the past four years, the migration of users from Android to iOS has continued to strengthen. Klein said, \"The new iPhone 14 will help Apple continue to gain market share in the U.S. in the coming quarters.\" The iPhone's collaboration with other products and the entire iOS ecosystem create value for consumers.</p><p>The United States is Apple's most important market. In fiscal year 2021, the U.S. market achieved revenue of $133.803 billion, a growth rate of 23%, accounting for 36.58% of total revenue.</p><p>During the same period, revenue in the Chinese market was about half that of the United States, at $68.366 billion; However, it cannot be ignored that the nearly 70% year-on-year revenue growth in the Chinese market is another important reason why the market remains optimistic about Apple. In the first nine months of fiscal year 2022, Apple achieved revenue of $58.73 billion in the Chinese market, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. According to Guo Tianxiang, senior analyst at IDC China, in the first half of 2022, Apple already held a 70.5% share of the domestic high-end market priced above $600.</p><p>If Daniel Ives' analysis holds true, and 30% or even more Chinese iPhone users have completed their model upgrades, Apple's stock price will likely be boosted. But achieving this goal is not easy. According to IDC statistics, Apple's smartphone market share has remained stable at 10.2%-23.4% in the past two years, making it the world's third-largest smartphone manufacturer. In the high-end smartphone segment where Apple operates, Huawei recently released the Mate 50 series, which clearly provides consumers with new options.</p><p>Barron's reports that new products could have a significant impact on the company in the coming quarters, but a surge in Apple's stock price after the launch event is unlikely. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Apple's stock price fell by an average of 0.46% on the day the iPhone launch event ended, tracked over 21 previous days.</p><p>On September 7, Apple's stock price rose slightly by 0.93% to close at $155.96.</p><p><b>Apple's car manufacturing might not be as practical as the Apple Watch.</b></p><p>At its press conference on September 8th, Apple still made no mention of car manufacturing. Barron's believes it is too early to incorporate Apple's huge market share in car manufacturing into its sales model and reflect it in its valuation.</p><p>However, perhaps thanks to Apple's strong market influence and brand appeal, the Apple Car has begun to capture consumers' minds even before it has been officially announced, designed, and produced. On September 2, a report by market research firm Strategic Vision on the consumption intentions of new car buyers showed that 26% of respondents said they would \"definitely consider\" Apple cars when buying a car.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>(TM.N) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda Motor</a>(HMC.N) is more popular than Apple, at 38% and 32% respectively;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>(F.N) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.O) ranked fourth and fifth with 21% and 20% respectively. Alexander Edwards, president of the agency, said that automakers should be worried that Apple is taking away consumer favor. \"For example, more than 50% of Tesla owners said they would 'definitely' consider a future Apple car.\"</p><p>This may not be a bad thing for Apple. After all, based on the stable performance of the iPhone, relying on car manufacturing to achieve a second growth curve does not seem so unrealistic on the consumer side.</p><p>But the real question is, how exactly is Apple going to manufacture cars? Should you build your own factory and assemble it, or outsource it to a car manufacturer? Does it manufacture commercial vehicles or passenger vehicles? Should we go for a pure battery route or a hybrid route? Are we going to develop autonomous driving?</p><p>The latest news is that Desi Ujkashevic, an executive who worked at Ford for 31 years, joined Apple in April of this year as a senior director. Public information shows that during her tenure at Ford Motor Company, she participated in projects such as the Ford Explorer, Lincoln MKC, Lincoln AVIATOR, Ford Escape, and Ford electric vehicles.</p><p>In contrast to the Apple Car, Apple spent nearly 40 minutes introducing the Apple Watch at the launch event (it took about an hour to introduce the iPhone). If this metric is not used rigorously, then Apple's performance in the wearable device sector in the coming quarters may be more likely to show investors the potential for earnings growth.</p><p>Besides the regular upgrades to the Apple Watch Series 8 and the launch of the cheaper Apple Watch SE, one of the biggest highlights of the launch event was the unveiling of the Apple Watch Ultra. This watch, starting at RMB 6,299, is designed for extreme outdoor environments. It uses a 64-bit dual-core S8 chip, W3 wireless chip, and U1 chip, and is equipped with two GPS bands: L1 core and L5, fully demonstrating Apple's attributes as a technology company.</p><p>In fiscal year 2021, Apple's revenue from wearables, smart home and accessories reached $38.367 billion, surpassing revenue from Mac and iPad products, with revenue growing by 25% year-over-year. Many market observers believe that Apple's wearable devices can leverage the iPhone's massive user base to increase penetration. According to IDC data, global wearable device shipments reached 533.6 million units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 20%. Apple holds the largest market share at 30.3%, followed by Xiaomi and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>They ranked second and third with market shares of 10.2% and 9.0%, respectively.</p><p>According to Nasdaq statistics, based on the 12-month target prices given to Apple by 25 analysts over the past three months, the average target price is $183.12, with the highest and lowest estimates being $220 and $136, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198806e5a050e0fc3613e1a5f4ccb654\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple Target Price Forecast</p><p>Source: Nasdaq</p><p>Credit Suisse believes that Apple's broader ecosystem continues to be supported by services and a growing installation base, while the company is working to address supply constraints. Growing macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and a repricing of a strong dollar could negatively impact product demand and prompt Wall Street analysts to lower their revenue forecasts for Apple. The bank lowered its price target for Apple from $169 to $166 and maintained its neutral rating on the stock.</p><p>Wedbush pointed out that Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>It is the top choice for investing in technology stocks at the end of this year. For Apple, the problems related to China and the supply chain seem to have peaked, and the focus now is on iPhone 14 production and demand.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9405a7922d06b5ebe5269bd99e9e3c71","relate_stocks":{"BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195538213","content_text":"苹果内部芯片为公司的利润空间提供了更大的灵活性。北京时间9月8日凌晨，苹果召开新品发布会，iPhone 14如期而至。9月7日苹果股价小幅收涨0.93%至155.96美元，市值2.51万亿美元。2022年1月3日盘中，苹果市值一度超过3万亿美元，但这一突破极限的表现并没能持续——年初至今，苹果股价下跌了11.81%，同期标普500指数下跌16.50%。苹果股价走势图iPhone 14对苹果而言至关重要，因为公司正在面临的挑战之一，是广泛的经济环境未来将如何影响iPhone和其他产品的需求——今年以来，利率上升、燃料成本上涨、供应链的压力以及美元飙升等因素令包括苹果在内的科技公司备受考验。具体到iPhone产品，则是一个交叉路口。Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯（Daniel Ives）新品发布会召开前的一份报告中写道，全球范围内，疲软的宏观经济将抑制消费者购买新品的需求，苹果2023财年2.2亿部iPhone的出货量可能是一个较低的水平；然而，在关键的中国市场，约有30%的iPhone消费者正处于产品升级周期的窗口中，潜在的Pro/Pro Max系列产品的消费者有望继续推高iPhone的平均售价。在9月的发布会之前，关于iPhone 14涨价的传闻不绝于耳。结果却是，iPhone 14起售价为799美元，iPhone 14 Plus起售价为899美元，iPhone 14 Pro起售价为999美元。丹尼尔·艾夫斯告诉《巴伦周刊》，iPhone维持售价是一个“令人震惊的事情”，认为苹果内部芯片为公司的利润空间提供了更大的灵活性。除了iPhone之外，发布会还推出了Apple Watch和AirPods Pro的新产品。不过，市场期待了若干年的Apple Car，仍然是镜中月、水中花。iPhone恒强，边际在哪里？iPhone是苹果收入的主要驱动力。《巴伦周刊》在今年4月的报道中指出，公司的股价实际上取决于iPhone的年度销量。2021财年，苹果实现营收3658.17亿美元，净利润为947亿美元；其中iPhone的营收同比增长39%至1919.73亿美元，营收占比为52.48%。这帮助苹果在2022年年初实现了一个完美的开局。1月3日，苹果市值短暂超过3万亿美元，成为有史以来第一家突破这一关口的上市公司。《巴伦周刊》称，年初苹果的股价上涨，源于人们低估了iPhone 13的强劲需求。华尔街曾认为，iPhone 13不如iPhone 12重要，因为后者是苹果的第一款5G产品；但中国对新手机的需求一直处于历史高位，为公司的潜在盈利奠定了基础。苹果2022财年三季报显示，在截至2022年6月25日的九个月里，iPhone产品实现收入1628.63亿美元，同比增长6.37%；营收占比53.54%，较去年同期的54.20%小幅收窄。如果按此增速计算，iPhone在2022财年的营收表现是无法超越的上一财年的。所以，iPhone 14的重要性不言而喻。苹果股价从今年4月开始下滑，6月16日甚至跌破了130美元；8月一度回到170美元上方，随后又开启了下跌模式。新机型的推出往往能刺激“果粉”们的购买欲——比如，有的消费者选择直接购入新机或以旧换新，还有的消费者则退而求其次，选择购买降价后的前一年的机型。与iPhone 13相比，iPhone 14除了新增车祸检测和卫星通信外，并没有推出颠覆性的新功能；而最大的亮点在iPhone 14 Pro的设计，舍弃了此前的刘海屏，增加了灵动岛功能，并且采用了A16仿生芯片。乐观假设的基础，一方面在于美国本土消费者们真的很爱苹果。Counterpoint Research高级分析师莫里斯·克莱恩（Maurice Klaehne）9月2日接受《巴伦周刊》采访时表示，截至2022年第二季度，iPhone的市场份额占美国活跃智能手机的一半以上；过去四年里，用户从安卓系统到iOS系统的迁移持续走强。克莱恩说：“新iPhone 14将帮助苹果在未来几个季度继续获得美国市场的份额。”而iPhone与其他产品的相互协作及整个iOS生态系统为消费者创造了价值。美国是苹果最重要的市场。2021财年，美国市场实现营收1338.03亿美元，增速23%，营收占比36.58%。同期中国市场的营收约为美国的一半，为683.66亿美元；但不能被忽视的是，中国市场营收同比增长近70%，是市场对苹果保持乐观的另一个重要原因。2022财年前九个月，苹果在中国市场实现了587.30亿美元的营收，同比上涨9.1%。IDC中国高级分析师郭天翔表示，2022年上半年，在国内600美元以上高端市场中，苹果已占据70.5%的份额。如果丹尼尔·艾夫斯的分析成立，30%、乃至更多的中国iPhone用户完成了对机型的更新换代，苹果股价大概率将获得提振。但完成这个目标并不容易。据IDC统计，近两年苹果智能手机市占率稳定在10.2%-23.4%，目前为世界第三大智能手机生产商。而在苹果所处的高端智能手机领域，华为前不久发布了Mate 50系列手机，显然给消费者提供了新的选择。《巴伦周刊》称，新产品可能会对公司未来几个季度产生重大影响，但苹果股价在发布会结束后暴涨是小概率事件。根据道琼斯市场数据此前追踪的21个iPhone发布日股价走势，苹果股价在发布会结束当天平均下跌0.46%。9月7日，苹果股价小幅上涨0.93%，收于155.96美元。苹果造车，可能还不如Apple Watch更实际9月8日的发布会，苹果仍然只字未提造车。《巴伦周刊》认为，现在把苹果造车的巨大市场份额纳入其销售模型，并反映在估值中，还为时尚早。不过，许是得益于苹果强大的市场影响力和品牌号召力，Apple Car即便未被官宣、设计和生产，已经开始捕获消费者心智。9月2日，市场调研机构Strategic Vision一份关于新车购买者消费意愿的报告显示，26%的受访者表示在买车时“肯定会考虑”苹果的汽车。丰田汽车（TM.N）和本田汽车（HMC.N）的受欢迎程度高于苹果，分别为38%和32%；福特汽车（F.N）和特斯拉（TSLA.O）则以21%和20%分居第四、第五。该机构的总裁亚历山大·爱德华（Alexander Edwards）表示，车企应该担心的是，苹果正在分走消费者的喜爱，“例如，超过50%的特斯拉车主表示‘一定会’考虑未来的苹果汽车。”对苹果来说，这未尝不是一件好事。毕竟，在iPhone稳定表现的基础上，依靠造车走出第二增长曲线，在消费端看起来不是那么不切实际。但实际的问题在于，苹果到底要怎么造车。是自己建厂组装、还是外包给汽车制造商？是造商用车还是乘用车？是走纯电池路线、还是混合动力路线？是不是要做自动驾驶？最新的消息是，曾在福特汽车工作了31年的高管德西·乌伊卡舍维奇（Desi Ujkashevic）在今年4月加入了苹果，任高级总监。公开资料显示，她在福特汽车任职期间，参与了福特Explorer、林肯MKC、林肯飞行家AVIATOR、福特Escape和福特电动汽车等项目。与Apple Car形成反差的是，苹果在发布会上花费了近40分钟的时间介绍了Apple Watch（介绍iPhone大致用了一个小时）。若是用这个指标不严谨地衡量，那么在接下来若干个季度里，苹果在可穿戴设备领域的作为或许更能让投资者看到业绩增长的可能性。除了Apple Watch Series 8的常规升级和推出更便宜的Apple Watch SE外，发布会最大的亮点之一，是Apple Watch Ultra的横空出世。这款起售价人民币6299元的手表，针对户外极限环境，采用64位双核S8芯片+W3无线芯片+U1芯片的组合，配备L1核L5两个GPS频段，将苹果的科技公司属性彰显无遗。2021财年，苹果可穿戴、智能家居与配件收入达383.67亿美元，超过了Mac和iPad产品的收入，营收同比增长25%。许多市场观点认为，苹果的可穿戴设备可以借助iPhone庞大用户基础提升渗透率。IDC的数据显示，2021年全球可穿戴设备出货量为5.336亿部，同比增长20%；其中，苹果的市场份额居首，达30.3%，小米和三星则以10.2%和9.0%的市占率排名二、三位。据纳斯达克统计，基于25位分析师在过去三个月给予的苹果未来12个月目标价，平均目标价为183.12美元，最高和最低估价分别是220美元和136美元。苹果目标价预测来源：纳斯达克瑞信认为，苹果更广泛的生态系统继续受到了来自服务和不断增长的安装基数的支持，同时该公司正在努力解决供应限制问题。日益增加的宏观不确定性、通货膨胀压力和强势美元的重新定价将可能对产品需求造成不利影响，并推动华尔街分析师下调对苹果收入的预期。该行将苹果的目标价从169美元下调至166美元，并维持对该股的中性评级。Wedbush则指出，苹果、微软和Palo Alto Networks是今年年底投资科技股的首选。对苹果公司来说，与中国和供应链相关的问题似乎已经见顶，现在的焦点是iPhone 14的生产和需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}