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Morgan Stanley's Top Ten Global Stock Market Themes of 2023: Corporate Earnings, Global Recession, the Rise of China, India, and Saudi Arabia

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Opening | Alibaba opens higher, Tesla rises over 2%

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FDA approves "most promising" new drug to cure Alzheimer's disease

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Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters

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Russia countered "price limits" and had warned of implementing crude oil production cuts and sales bans

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Does the Spring Festival offer conditions for family reunions? Zhang Boli responded

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07:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley's Top Ten Global Stock Market Themes of 2023: Corporate Earnings, Global Recession, the Rise of China, India, and Saudi Arabia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102521229","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利认为，在2023年欧美公司利润承压，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，印度、沙特的发展等将成为股市主题。在过去的2022年，美联储暴力加息，俄乌冲突等多方力量共同作用持续影响市场。美股三大股指均创下","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley believes that in 2023, the profits of European and American companies will be under pressure, the optimistic economic prospects of China and Asia, and the development of India and Saudi Arabia will be the themes of the stock market. In 2022, the Federal Reserve's violent rate hike and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, among other forces, continued to impact the market. All three major U.S. stock indexes posted their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Entering 2023, with the prospect of a global economic slowdown and weakening demand, investors are beginning to consider what other themes, besides the Federal Reserve, will dominate the market this year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's analytics team has recently summarized the top ten themes in global stock markets in 2023, including:<b>Profit margins of European and American companies are under pressure, from stagflation to recession, the optimistic outlook for the Chinese and Asian economies, ESG ratings driving company valuations, the next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market, the planet reducing carbon emissions, the development of India and Saudi Arabia, the era of multi-income earners brought about by ChatGPT, and what to do about obesity, etc.</b></p><p><b>Topic 1: The Challenges of Profit Margins in European and American</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the company's costs will not decrease and its bargaining power will decline in 2023.<b>This affected profitability and put pressure on profit margins.</b>。 From the perspective of the United States<b>This year, the earnings of the S&P 500 will face great pressure and face a \"profit cliff\"</b>：</p><p>We believe that when cost growth exceeds sales growth, a company's profit growth will be severely impacted, resulting in a negative operating leverage ratio. Considering that (1) the job market in some industries remains hot and there is a labor shortage, wage costs may remain high, and (2) inventory replenishment at higher prices in the face of insufficient supply has led to inventory surplus, this phenomenon may become more serious in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ee758835f7a66189d9b772716989f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to a significant decline in profit margins<b>Morgan Stanley believes European stock markets may fall by 10% this year.</b>：</p><p>Our metrics monitoring European profit margins indicate that profit margins will contract by more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, comparable to the situation during the global financial crisis. Higher wages, persistently high inflation, slowing end-user demand, and declining pricing power will all lead to our expected negative operating leverage ratio.<b>Topic 2: From stagflation to deflation and even recession</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out that inflation and rising interest rates were the main drivers of capital market and industry performance in 2022. Entering 2023, the focus will shift to lower inflation and slower growth:</p><p>Our U.S. economists expect U.S. inflation to decline sharply in the coming quarters, which will put downward pressure on bond yields and benefit defensive stocks and GARP stocks. Morgan Stanley believes that inventory will face a dual challenge: on the one hand, supply chain bottlenecks have largely disappeared, while on the other hand, demand, especially for goods, is slowing down.</p><p>Supply chain problems have disappeared in most industries, and imports of goods in the United States are rising sharply. Since the financial crisis, the ratio of inventory to sales in American companies has been rising and is now at its highest level since 1990. We think many companies are using discounts to solve this problem.<b>Theme 3: Optimistic prospects for the Chinese and Asian economies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that, unlike Western economies where growth is expected to slow further in 2023,<b>With the continuous optimization of policies, the economic development prospects of China and Asia will be relatively optimistic and usher in a recovery</b>：</p><p>This, coupled with our expected weakness in the US dollar, should stimulate investor interest in assets in Asia, the Middle East, and China (including fixed income and stocks). The Chinese market and emerging markets may see a rebound.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a909a6cabcf3d4a1cd6ec33a31cbd6a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Topic 4: ESG Ratings Drive Alpha</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that ESG ratings in 2023 will be a key focus for investors looking for things that can generate alpha and influence the company's future. Morgan Stanley explained:</p><p>By analyzing 90 stocks globally, our analysts believe that any significant improvement in an ESG metric will have a positive impact on its finances and valuations. We believe that ESG ratings are a better gauge of a stock's future than traditional ratings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c9ce45f9093561c77630ee06eed714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme 5: Helping the Earth Reduce Carbon Emissions</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysis suggests that companies that can provide sustainable technologies for different industries will become drivers of social development in the future.</p><p>Our analysts have listed more than 50 companies that have changed the original \"rules of the game\" in the industry and continue to advance sustainable technologies. $500 billion in capital is scrambling to break the current stagnation in carbon emissions reduction.<b>Topic Six: Next Round of IPOs and Funds Outflow from the Secondary Market</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley stated that unicorn companies are currently in a period where they need to refinance, and funds may flow out of the secondary market to support investment.</p><p>Over the past 15 years, only 3% of 1,420 companies have conducted IPOs during a downturn; More than 50% of the companies will continue to go public or be acquired at higher valuations in the future. If the next round of IPOs happens, it will most likely happen in mid-2023 for most emerging unicorn companies. History suggests that companies that raised funds in 2021 will conduct their next round of funding around the second quarter of 2023, followed by an IPO 9-12 months later.<b>Theme Seven: India's Decade</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that over the next 10 years,<b>India may become the world's third largest economy and stock market</b>：</p><p>We believe that India has the conditions to achieve economic prosperity driven by offshore outsourcing, manufacturing investment, energy transition, and the country's advanced digital infrastructure. These driving forces will make it the world's third-largest economy and stock market within a decade.<b>Theme 8: Saudi Arabia will rise rapidly</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed out that<b>Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, announced in 2016, gained significant momentum in 2022, and this momentum is expected to extend into the next decade.</b>：</p><p>To achieve Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has launched projects worth more than $1 trillion, aiming to transform the country into an economic powerhouse. We estimate that Saudi Arabia may spend approximately $900 billion by 2030 (compared to an estimated $50 billion spent so far). We believe that contractors in South Korea and India, as well as the luxury goods industry, will benefit.<b>Theme 9: The Multi-Income Era</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out that with the rapid iteration and development of ChatGPT and other generative artificial intelligence, a question is beginning to arise: which jobs will be replaced in the future? In the medium to long term,<b>The future of work requires greater flexibility.</b>：</p><p>We believe that the pursuit of work has now begun to shift towards seeking multiple sources of income. This is creating a large and growing population whose marginal time will be better used for different jobs to generate multiple sources of income. Generation Z is leading this shift.<b>Topic 10: Obesity x Social Media</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that Wegovy (obesity drug), Ozempic (hypoglycemic drug) and semaglutide (weight loss drug) are being mentioned a lot in TikTok short videos and comments, which will bring about the rise of a series of treatment areas such as obesity:</p><p>We argue that the result of excessive discussion of obesity is (1) knowledge of drugs, which makes (2) the need for drugs likely to spread exponentially in the future. We believe that global sales of obesity drugs can reach more than US$50 billion by 2030, which will raise spending on obesity to the top 12 in the global treatment field.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3c5aaf95bc7b7b1ed0f240500ad6a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley's Top Ten Global Stock Market Themes of 2023: Corporate Earnings, Global Recession, the Rise of China, India, and Saudi Arabia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley's Top Ten Global Stock Market Themes of 2023: Corporate Earnings, Global Recession, the Rise of China, India, and Saudi Arabia\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-17 07:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley believes that in 2023, the profits of European and American companies will be under pressure, the optimistic economic prospects of China and Asia, and the development of India and Saudi Arabia will be the themes of the stock market. In 2022, the Federal Reserve's violent rate hike and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, among other forces, continued to impact the market. All three major U.S. stock indexes posted their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Entering 2023, with the prospect of a global economic slowdown and weakening demand, investors are beginning to consider what other themes, besides the Federal Reserve, will dominate the market this year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's analytics team has recently summarized the top ten themes in global stock markets in 2023, including:<b>Profit margins of European and American companies are under pressure, from stagflation to recession, the optimistic outlook for the Chinese and Asian economies, ESG ratings driving company valuations, the next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market, the planet reducing carbon emissions, the development of India and Saudi Arabia, the era of multi-income earners brought about by ChatGPT, and what to do about obesity, etc.</b></p><p><b>Topic 1: The Challenges of Profit Margins in European and American</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the company's costs will not decrease and its bargaining power will decline in 2023.<b>This affected profitability and put pressure on profit margins.</b>。 From the perspective of the United States<b>This year, the earnings of the S&P 500 will face great pressure and face a \"profit cliff\"</b>：</p><p>We believe that when cost growth exceeds sales growth, a company's profit growth will be severely impacted, resulting in a negative operating leverage ratio. Considering that (1) the job market in some industries remains hot and there is a labor shortage, wage costs may remain high, and (2) inventory replenishment at higher prices in the face of insufficient supply has led to inventory surplus, this phenomenon may become more serious in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ee758835f7a66189d9b772716989f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to a significant decline in profit margins<b>Morgan Stanley believes European stock markets may fall by 10% this year.</b>：</p><p>Our metrics monitoring European profit margins indicate that profit margins will contract by more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, comparable to the situation during the global financial crisis. Higher wages, persistently high inflation, slowing end-user demand, and declining pricing power will all lead to our expected negative operating leverage ratio.<b>Topic 2: From stagflation to deflation and even recession</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out that inflation and rising interest rates were the main drivers of capital market and industry performance in 2022. Entering 2023, the focus will shift to lower inflation and slower growth:</p><p>Our U.S. economists expect U.S. inflation to decline sharply in the coming quarters, which will put downward pressure on bond yields and benefit defensive stocks and GARP stocks. Morgan Stanley believes that inventory will face a dual challenge: on the one hand, supply chain bottlenecks have largely disappeared, while on the other hand, demand, especially for goods, is slowing down.</p><p>Supply chain problems have disappeared in most industries, and imports of goods in the United States are rising sharply. Since the financial crisis, the ratio of inventory to sales in American companies has been rising and is now at its highest level since 1990. We think many companies are using discounts to solve this problem.<b>Theme 3: Optimistic prospects for the Chinese and Asian economies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that, unlike Western economies where growth is expected to slow further in 2023,<b>With the continuous optimization of policies, the economic development prospects of China and Asia will be relatively optimistic and usher in a recovery</b>：</p><p>This, coupled with our expected weakness in the US dollar, should stimulate investor interest in assets in Asia, the Middle East, and China (including fixed income and stocks). The Chinese market and emerging markets may see a rebound.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a909a6cabcf3d4a1cd6ec33a31cbd6a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Topic 4: ESG Ratings Drive Alpha</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that ESG ratings in 2023 will be a key focus for investors looking for things that can generate alpha and influence the company's future. Morgan Stanley explained:</p><p>By analyzing 90 stocks globally, our analysts believe that any significant improvement in an ESG metric will have a positive impact on its finances and valuations. We believe that ESG ratings are a better gauge of a stock's future than traditional ratings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c9ce45f9093561c77630ee06eed714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme 5: Helping the Earth Reduce Carbon Emissions</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysis suggests that companies that can provide sustainable technologies for different industries will become drivers of social development in the future.</p><p>Our analysts have listed more than 50 companies that have changed the original \"rules of the game\" in the industry and continue to advance sustainable technologies. $500 billion in capital is scrambling to break the current stagnation in carbon emissions reduction.<b>Topic Six: Next Round of IPOs and Funds Outflow from the Secondary Market</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley stated that unicorn companies are currently in a period where they need to refinance, and funds may flow out of the secondary market to support investment.</p><p>Over the past 15 years, only 3% of 1,420 companies have conducted IPOs during a downturn; More than 50% of the companies will continue to go public or be acquired at higher valuations in the future. If the next round of IPOs happens, it will most likely happen in mid-2023 for most emerging unicorn companies. History suggests that companies that raised funds in 2021 will conduct their next round of funding around the second quarter of 2023, followed by an IPO 9-12 months later.<b>Theme Seven: India's Decade</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that over the next 10 years,<b>India may become the world's third largest economy and stock market</b>：</p><p>We believe that India has the conditions to achieve economic prosperity driven by offshore outsourcing, manufacturing investment, energy transition, and the country's advanced digital infrastructure. These driving forces will make it the world's third-largest economy and stock market within a decade.<b>Theme 8: Saudi Arabia will rise rapidly</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed out that<b>Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, announced in 2016, gained significant momentum in 2022, and this momentum is expected to extend into the next decade.</b>：</p><p>To achieve Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has launched projects worth more than $1 trillion, aiming to transform the country into an economic powerhouse. We estimate that Saudi Arabia may spend approximately $900 billion by 2030 (compared to an estimated $50 billion spent so far). We believe that contractors in South Korea and India, as well as the luxury goods industry, will benefit.<b>Theme 9: The Multi-Income Era</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out that with the rapid iteration and development of ChatGPT and other generative artificial intelligence, a question is beginning to arise: which jobs will be replaced in the future? In the medium to long term,<b>The future of work requires greater flexibility.</b>：</p><p>We believe that the pursuit of work has now begun to shift towards seeking multiple sources of income. This is creating a large and growing population whose marginal time will be better used for different jobs to generate multiple sources of income. Generation Z is leading this shift.<b>Topic 10: Obesity x Social Media</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that Wegovy (obesity drug), Ozempic (hypoglycemic drug) and semaglutide (weight loss drug) are being mentioned a lot in TikTok short videos and comments, which will bring about the rise of a series of treatment areas such as obesity:</p><p>We argue that the result of excessive discussion of obesity is (1) knowledge of drugs, which makes (2) the need for drugs likely to spread exponentially in the future. We believe that global sales of obesity drugs can reach more than US$50 billion by 2030, which will raise spending on obesity to the top 12 in the global treatment field.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3c5aaf95bc7b7b1ed0f240500ad6a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679983\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679983","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102521229","content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，在2023年欧美公司利润承压，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，印度、沙特的发展等将成为股市主题。在过去的2022年，美联储暴力加息，俄乌冲突等多方力量共同作用持续影响市场。美股三大股指均创下2008年金融危机以来的最差年度表现。进入2023年，在全球经济放缓需求走弱的前景下，投资者开始思考，除了美联储以外，还有哪些主题将主导今年的市场。摩根士丹利分析团队最新总结了2023年全球股市的十大主题，包括：欧美公司利润率承压，从滞涨到衰退，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，ESG的评级驱动公司估值，下轮IPO及资金从二级市场流出，地球减少碳排放，印度、沙特的发展，ChatGPT带来的多种收入者时代以及肥胖症该怎么办等。主题一：欧美公司利润率的挑战摩根士丹利认为2023年公司的成本无法下降且议价能力下降，导致盈利受到影响，利润率承压。从美国来看，今年标普500的盈利将面临巨大压力，并面临“盈利悬崖”：我们认为，当成本的增速超过销售的增速时，公司盈利增长就会受到剧烈打击，出现经营杠杆系数为负的情况。考虑到（1）某些行业的就业市场依旧火爆，劳动力短缺的情况，工资成本或将维持在高位（2）在供应不足的情况下以较高价格填补的库存导致了库存过剩的情况，这种现象在2023年可能更加严重。因利润率大幅下降，摩根士丹利认为今年欧洲股市或将下跌10%：我们监控欧洲利润率的指标显示，未来12个月的利润率收缩将超过200个基点，与全球金融危机期间的情况相当。更高的工资，仍处高位的通胀、终端需求的放缓和定价能力的下降，都会导致我们预期的经营杠杆系数为负的情况。主题二：从滞胀到通缩甚至衰退摩根士丹利指出，通胀和不断攀升的利率是2022年资本市场和行业表现的主要驱动力。进入2023年，重点将转移到较低的通胀及较慢的增长：我们的美国经济学家预计，美国的通胀率将在未来几个季度大幅下降，这将给债券收益率带来下行压力，有利于防御性股票和GARP股票。摩根士丹利认为，库存将面临双重挑战，一方面供应链的瓶颈问题已基本消失，而另一方面需求端，特别是对货物的需求，正在放缓：大多数行业的供应链问题已经消失，美国的货物进口量正急剧上升。自金融危机以来，美国公司的库存与销售的比例一直在上升，现在正处于1990年以来的最高水平。我们认为许多公司正用打折来解决这个问题。主题三：中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景摩根士丹利认为，与西方经济体的发展将在2023年进一步放缓不同，随着不断优化的政策，中国及亚洲的经济发展前景将较为乐观，迎来复苏：叠加我们预期的美元疲软，应该会激发投资者们对亚洲、中东、中国资产（包括固定收益和股票）的兴趣。中国的市场及新兴市场的或将迎来反弹。主题四：ESG的评级驱动阿尔法摩根士丹利认为，2023年ESG的评级，将成为投资者寻找能够产生阿尔法和影响公司未来的一个关键焦点，摩根士丹利解释称：通过分析全球范围内的90只股票，我们分析师认为只要一个ESG指标有明显的改善，对其财务和估值都将产生积极影响。我们相信，与传统的评级相比，ESG评级能更好地衡量股票的未来。主题五： 为地球减少碳排放助力摩根士丹利分析称，未来可以为不同行业提供可持续发展技术的公司将成为社会发展的推动者：我们的分析师列出了超过50家改变了行业原本的 “游戏规则 ”，持续推进可持续发展技术的公司。5000亿美元的资本正在争先恐后地打破当下停止不前的减少碳排放现状。主题六：下轮IPO及资金从二级市场流出摩根士丹利称，当下正处于独角兽企业需要重新融资的时期，资金或将从二级市场流出，以支持投资：在过去的15年里，1420家公司中只有3%在下行周期进行了IPO；超过50%的公司都在未来继续进行IPO或以更高估值被收购。如果下一轮IPO会发生，那么对于大多数新晋的独角兽公司来说，最有可能在2023年年中发生。历史表明，在2021年进行融资的公司将在2023年第二季度左右进行下一轮融资，并在随后的9-12个月进行IPO。主题七：印度的十年摩根士丹利认为，在接下来的10年内，印度或成为世界第三大经济体和股票市场：我们认为，印度已经具备了在离岸外包、制造业投资、能源转型和国家先进的数字基础设施的推动下实现经济繁荣的条件。这些驱动力将使其在十年内成为世界第三大经济体和股票市场。主题八：沙特将快速崛起大摩指出，沙特2016年公布的 \"2030愿景 \"在2022年获得了巨大的前进动能，预计势头或将延伸到未来十年：为实现“2030愿景”沙特阿拉伯已经推出了价值超过1万亿美元的项目，旨在将该国转变为经济强国。我们估计，到2030年沙特或将支出约9000亿美元（而迄今为止 ，估计已花费500亿美元）。我们认为，韩国和印度的承包商以及奢侈品行业将受益。主题九：多种收入者时代摩根士丹利指出，随着ChatGPT和其他生成式人工智能的快速迭代和发展，开始引出一个问题：未来哪些工作将被取代。从中长期来看，未来的工作需要更大的灵活性：我们认为，现在对工作的追求已经开始转变为寻求多种收入来源。这正在创造一个庞大且不断增长的人群，他们的边际时间将被更好地用于不同的工作从而产生多种收入来源，Z世代的人正在引领这一模式的转变。主题十：肥胖症x社交媒体摩根士丹利认为，Wegovy（肥胖症用药）、Ozempic（降糖药）和semaglutide（减肥药物）正在TikTok短视视频及评论中被大量提及，将会带来针对肥胖症等一系列治疗领域的兴起：我们认为，对肥胖症过多讨论的结果是(1)对药物的了解，从而使得(2)对药物的需求有可能在未来出现指数级传播。我们相信全球针对肥胖症药物的销售额在2030年可以达到500亿美元以上，将使对肥胖症的支出上升到全球治疗领域支出的前12位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951073883,"gmtCreate":1673365716243,"gmtModify":1676538825292,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951073883","repostId":"1129242286","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129242286","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673360880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129242286?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-10 22:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | Alibaba opens higher, Tesla rises over 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129242286","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月10日周二，美股小幅低开，但随后拉升，截至发稿三大指数均转涨。美联储鲍威尔在今晚的讲话中表示，美联储的政策是有效的，我们的任务没有出错。阿里巴巴高开，涨约2%。杭州市委书记调研蚂蚁集团，杭州市人民","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, January 10, U.S. stocks experienced a slight open low, but subsequently rebounded, with all three major indices turning positive as of press time.<b>In his speech tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed's policies are effective and that our mission has not gone wrong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55213d1c864fbf260a9c22a95bbb2b0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It opened higher, rising about 2%. Hangzhou Municipal Party Secretary conducts research<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>The Hangzhou Municipal People's Government and Alibaba signed a comprehensive and in-depth strategic cooperation agreement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35609e447b1917b2057ddcbb64dada4d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Emerging electric vehicle manufacturers collectively rose in early trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It rose 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Tesla China rose more than 2% in early trading after reports that it received 30,000 car orders in three days after announcing a price cut. However, Tesla declined to comment. According to other reports, Tesla's electric vehicle factory in Austin, Texas, will begin to expand in the coming weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3eeff30d0063f48d0f9768dd5ebdb72\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future fell more than 5% after receiving a notification from the Nasdaq Exchange that the company did not meet certain requirements for continued listing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>After a 20% drop, Virgin Orbit admitted on social media that its first satellite launch from the UK had failed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>The company rose 7.1%, despite reporting a quarterly loss of approximately $393 million during the holiday season, but did not indicate that it would file for bankruptcy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell 1.56%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>They downgraded Boeing's rating from \"overweight\" to \"hold,\" citing a lack of potential upside at current levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>It fell slightly by 1%, according to reports.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The plan is to abandon it by 2025.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>The chip has been changed to an internal design.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">illuminate</a>The company fell more than 11% after lowering its 2023 earnings guidance, which was lower than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | Alibaba opens higher, Tesla rises over 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | Alibaba opens higher, Tesla rises over 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-10 22:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, January 10, U.S. stocks experienced a slight open low, but subsequently rebounded, with all three major indices turning positive as of press time.<b>In his speech tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed's policies are effective and that our mission has not gone wrong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55213d1c864fbf260a9c22a95bbb2b0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It opened higher, rising about 2%. Hangzhou Municipal Party Secretary conducts research<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>The Hangzhou Municipal People's Government and Alibaba signed a comprehensive and in-depth strategic cooperation agreement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35609e447b1917b2057ddcbb64dada4d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Emerging electric vehicle manufacturers collectively rose in early trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It rose 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Tesla China rose more than 2% in early trading after reports that it received 30,000 car orders in three days after announcing a price cut. However, Tesla declined to comment. According to other reports, Tesla's electric vehicle factory in Austin, Texas, will begin to expand in the coming weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3eeff30d0063f48d0f9768dd5ebdb72\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future fell more than 5% after receiving a notification from the Nasdaq Exchange that the company did not meet certain requirements for continued listing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>After a 20% drop, Virgin Orbit admitted on social media that its first satellite launch from the UK had failed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>The company rose 7.1%, despite reporting a quarterly loss of approximately $393 million during the holiday season, but did not indicate that it would file for bankruptcy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell 1.56%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>They downgraded Boeing's rating from \"overweight\" to \"hold,\" citing a lack of potential upside at current levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>It fell slightly by 1%, according to reports.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The plan is to abandon it by 2025.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>The chip has been changed to an internal design.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">illuminate</a>The company fell more than 11% after lowering its 2023 earnings guidance, which was lower than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129242286","content_text":"1月10日周二，美股小幅低开，但随后拉升，截至发稿三大指数均转涨。美联储鲍威尔在今晚的讲话中表示，美联储的政策是有效的，我们的任务没有出错。阿里巴巴高开，涨约2%。杭州市委书记调研蚂蚁集团，杭州市人民政府和阿里巴巴签订全面深化战略合作协议。造车新势力盘初集体走高，小鹏汽车涨超3%，理想汽车、蔚来涨2%。特斯拉盘初涨超2%，消息称在宣布降价后，特斯拉中国三天内获3万辆汽车订单。但特斯拉官方未予置评。另据报道，未来几周，特斯拉位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的电动汽车工厂的规模将开始扩大。法拉第未来跌超5%，此前收到纳斯达克交易所的通知，告知公司不符合某些继续上市要求。维珍轨道大跌20%，维珍轨道在社交媒体承认，首次从英国发射卫星宣告失败。3B家居涨7.1%，尽管公司假日季出现了约3.93亿美元的季度亏损，但没有表示会申请破产。波音跌1.56%，摩根士丹利将波音的评级从增持下调至持有，称从当前水平看缺乏潜在的上升空间。博通微跌1%，有报道称苹果计划到2025年放弃博通芯片，改用内部设计。Illumina跌超11%，此前该公司下调2023年的业绩指引，且低于市场预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953083070,"gmtCreate":1673103706990,"gmtModify":1676538787044,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953083070","repostId":"1118862562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118862562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673056273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118862562?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 09:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"FDA approves \"most promising\" new drug to cure Alzheimer's disease","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118862562","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由百健和卫材研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, the Alzheimer's drug lecanemab for slowing cognitive decline, is a milestone in the decades-long search for new Alzheimer's treatments, and may mark the most common form of dementia in the United States. The treatment of the leading cause of death has begun to change.</b>On Friday, January 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated the approval of the monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, which is still in clinical trials and is used to slow cognitive decline. Alzheimer's drug lecanemab.</p><p>Eisai, which led the development of the new drug, set the price of this new drug at $26,500 per year in the United States, and set the trade name as Leqembi.</p><p>This new drug is the second drug to treat Alzheimer's disease to receive early approval from Biogen and Eisai in less than two years.</p><p>At the end of last year, the Democratic Party of the U.S. House of Representatives released a report stating that the FDA \"inappropriately\" cooperated with Biogen, which developed the drug, before approving its Alzheimer's treatment drug Aduhelm in 2021. Not only did Aduhelm not significantly improve symptoms clinically, but the FDA was also full of flaws in the approval process.</p><p>The clinical trial results announced by the FDA in November last year showed that lecanemab slowed down the cognitive decline of patients with mild impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease to some extent. The FDA's approval was also made accordingly, but this treatment also carries the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p>If a new drug is expected to help patients more effectively than the drugs currently used in clinical practice, the FDA will speed up the approval of the new drug. After approval, the new drug can be quickly launched to the market. The two pharmaceutical companies that developed this drug applied for accelerated approval last July.</p><p>The FDA said in a statement:</p><p>Alzheimer's disease greatly impairs patients' ability to live and has a devastating impact on their families. This treatment regimen is the latest therapy that targets and affects the condition, rather than simply relieving the symptoms of the disease. More than 6.5 million people in the United States suffer from Alzheimer's disease, which irreversibly damages patients' memory, thinking ability, and eventually causes patients to completely lose their executive ability.</p><p>The US Congress has just warned the FDA that the new drug approval process is riddled with flaws.</p><p>At the end of December last year, a report from the U.S. House of Representatives stated:</p><p>The FDA must act quickly to ensure that its review of future Alzheimer's drugs does not lead to the same doubts about the integrity of the FDA review. Carolyn Maloney, chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, said:</p><p>I hope these findings will serve as a wake-up call for the FDA to reform its practices and call on members of Congress to take action to continue overseeing the pharmaceutical industry to ensure that they do not harm patients. An FDA spokesperson said the agency is fully cooperating with the investigation:</p><p>One of our jobs is to frequently interact with pharmaceutical companies to ensure we have enough information to inform our regulatory decisions. We will continue to do this because it is in the best interest of the patient. In other words, the agency has begun implementing reforms that are in line with Congress's recommendations. What is Lecanemab?</p><p>The latest FDA-approved Lecanemab is a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein called amyloid, which accumulates in the brains of Alzheimer's patients. The antibody is injected intravenously every two weeks, and the dose is determined by the patient's body weight.</p><p>The FDA approved lecanemab based on the reduction of amyloid plaques observed in clinical trial participants receiving treatment; Participants who did not receive treatment, i.e., the placebo group, had no reduction in amyloid plaques.</p><p><b>The drug is the first to clearly show in recent studies that reducing amyloid will bring clinical benefits to patients, although doctors say its effects are relatively modest and far from curative. Nevertheless, doctors say its approval is a milestone in the decades-long search for new treatments for Alzheimer's and could mark the beginning of a shift in treatment for the most common form of dementia and leading cause of death in the United States.</b></p><p>Clinical trial results published in the New England Journal of Medicine found that people treated with lecanemab experienced a 27% slower rate of cognitive decline over 18 months compared to those who did not receive treatment. The study was funded by Biogen and Eisai.</p><p><b>Although lecanemab may slow cognitive decline to some extent, this treatment also carries risks.</b></p><p>Nearly 13% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced brain swelling, compared to about 2% of patients who did not receive treatment. However, most of these symptoms are mild to moderate in severity, do not cause symptoms, and usually resolve within four months. However, about 3% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced more severe brain swelling, with symptoms including headache, visual impairment, and confusion.</p><p>Approximately 17% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced cerebral hemorrhage, compared to 9% of patients who did not receive treatment, and the most common symptom associated with bleeding was dizziness.</p><p>Overall, 14% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced serious adverse reactions in clinical trials, compared to 11% of patients who did not receive treatment.</p><p>The authors of the study said that longer clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of lecanemab in patients with early Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>The FDA said that the prescription information for lecanemab will include warnings about the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FDA approves \"most promising\" new drug to cure Alzheimer's disease</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFDA approves \"most promising\" new drug to cure Alzheimer's disease\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-07 09:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, the Alzheimer's drug lecanemab for slowing cognitive decline, is a milestone in the decades-long search for new Alzheimer's treatments, and may mark the most common form of dementia in the United States. The treatment of the leading cause of death has begun to change.</b>On Friday, January 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated the approval of the monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, which is still in clinical trials and is used to slow cognitive decline. Alzheimer's drug lecanemab.</p><p>Eisai, which led the development of the new drug, set the price of this new drug at $26,500 per year in the United States, and set the trade name as Leqembi.</p><p>This new drug is the second drug to treat Alzheimer's disease to receive early approval from Biogen and Eisai in less than two years.</p><p>At the end of last year, the Democratic Party of the U.S. House of Representatives released a report stating that the FDA \"inappropriately\" cooperated with Biogen, which developed the drug, before approving its Alzheimer's treatment drug Aduhelm in 2021. Not only did Aduhelm not significantly improve symptoms clinically, but the FDA was also full of flaws in the approval process.</p><p>The clinical trial results announced by the FDA in November last year showed that lecanemab slowed down the cognitive decline of patients with mild impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease to some extent. The FDA's approval was also made accordingly, but this treatment also carries the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p>If a new drug is expected to help patients more effectively than the drugs currently used in clinical practice, the FDA will speed up the approval of the new drug. After approval, the new drug can be quickly launched to the market. The two pharmaceutical companies that developed this drug applied for accelerated approval last July.</p><p>The FDA said in a statement:</p><p>Alzheimer's disease greatly impairs patients' ability to live and has a devastating impact on their families. This treatment regimen is the latest therapy that targets and affects the condition, rather than simply relieving the symptoms of the disease. More than 6.5 million people in the United States suffer from Alzheimer's disease, which irreversibly damages patients' memory, thinking ability, and eventually causes patients to completely lose their executive ability.</p><p>The US Congress has just warned the FDA that the new drug approval process is riddled with flaws.</p><p>At the end of December last year, a report from the U.S. House of Representatives stated:</p><p>The FDA must act quickly to ensure that its review of future Alzheimer's drugs does not lead to the same doubts about the integrity of the FDA review. Carolyn Maloney, chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, said:</p><p>I hope these findings will serve as a wake-up call for the FDA to reform its practices and call on members of Congress to take action to continue overseeing the pharmaceutical industry to ensure that they do not harm patients. An FDA spokesperson said the agency is fully cooperating with the investigation:</p><p>One of our jobs is to frequently interact with pharmaceutical companies to ensure we have enough information to inform our regulatory decisions. We will continue to do this because it is in the best interest of the patient. In other words, the agency has begun implementing reforms that are in line with Congress's recommendations. What is Lecanemab?</p><p>The latest FDA-approved Lecanemab is a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein called amyloid, which accumulates in the brains of Alzheimer's patients. The antibody is injected intravenously every two weeks, and the dose is determined by the patient's body weight.</p><p>The FDA approved lecanemab based on the reduction of amyloid plaques observed in clinical trial participants receiving treatment; Participants who did not receive treatment, i.e., the placebo group, had no reduction in amyloid plaques.</p><p><b>The drug is the first to clearly show in recent studies that reducing amyloid will bring clinical benefits to patients, although doctors say its effects are relatively modest and far from curative. Nevertheless, doctors say its approval is a milestone in the decades-long search for new treatments for Alzheimer's and could mark the beginning of a shift in treatment for the most common form of dementia and leading cause of death in the United States.</b></p><p>Clinical trial results published in the New England Journal of Medicine found that people treated with lecanemab experienced a 27% slower rate of cognitive decline over 18 months compared to those who did not receive treatment. The study was funded by Biogen and Eisai.</p><p><b>Although lecanemab may slow cognitive decline to some extent, this treatment also carries risks.</b></p><p>Nearly 13% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced brain swelling, compared to about 2% of patients who did not receive treatment. However, most of these symptoms are mild to moderate in severity, do not cause symptoms, and usually resolve within four months. However, about 3% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced more severe brain swelling, with symptoms including headache, visual impairment, and confusion.</p><p>Approximately 17% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced cerebral hemorrhage, compared to 9% of patients who did not receive treatment, and the most common symptom associated with bleeding was dizziness.</p><p>Overall, 14% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced serious adverse reactions in clinical trials, compared to 11% of patients who did not receive treatment.</p><p>The authors of the study said that longer clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of lecanemab in patients with early Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>The FDA said that the prescription information for lecanemab will include warnings about the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679266\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb4be1ff4aaa40ac88564f80f173158e","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679266","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118862562","content_text":"由百健和卫材研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开始发生转变。1月6日周五，美国食品和药品管理局（FDA）加速批准尚在临床试验中、由百健（Biogen）和卫材（Eisai）研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab。领导该新药研发的卫材在美国将这种新药的定价设定为每年26500美元，商品名定为Leqembi。这一新药是百健和卫材在不到两年的时间里获得早期批准的第二种治疗阿尔茨海默氏症的药物。就在去年底，美国众议院民主党发布一份报告称，FDA在2021年批准其阿尔茨海默氏症治疗药物Aduhelm之前与研发该药品的百健Biogen“不恰当地”合作，不仅Aduhelm在临床上没有明显改善症状，而且FDA在审批过程中也充满瑕疵。去年11月FDA公布的临床试验结果表明，lecanemab在一定程度上减缓了因阿尔茨海默氏病导致的轻度损伤患者的认知能力下降，FDA的批准也是据此做出的，但这种治疗也存在脑肿胀和出血的风险。如果一种新药有望比当前临床使用的药物更有效地帮助患者，FDA会加快批准新药，获批之后，新药就能迅速推向市场。这款药物的两个开发药厂在去年7月申请加速批准。FDA在一份声明中说：阿尔茨海默氏症极大地削弱了患者的生活能力，并对他们的家庭造成毁灭性的影响。这种治疗方案是针对和影响该病症的最新疗法，而不仅仅是缓解疾病的症状。美国有超过650万人患有阿尔茨海默氏症，该病症会不可逆地破坏患者的记忆力、思维能力，并最终令患者的执行力完全丧失。美国国会刚刚警告FDA批准新药过程充斥瑕疵去年12月底，美国众议院的报告称：FDA必须迅速采取行动，确保其审查未来阿尔茨海默病治疗的药品不会导致对FDA审查的完整性产生同样的怀疑。众议院监督和改革委员会主席Carolyn Maloney说：我希望这些发现能敲响警钟，要求FDA改革其做法，并呼吁国会议员采取行动，继续监督制药行业，以确保他们不会让患者蒙受损失。FDA发言人表示，该机构全力配合调查：我们的工作之一是经常与医药公司互动，以确保我们有足够的信息来为我们的监管决策提供信息。我们将继续这样做，因为这符合患者的最大利益。也就是说，该机构已经开始实施符合国会建议的改革。Lecanemab是什么？FDA最新批准的Lecanemab是一种单克隆抗体，靶向一种称为淀粉样蛋白的蛋白质，这种蛋白质在阿尔茨海默氏症患者的大脑中积聚。该抗体每两周静脉注射一次，剂量由患者体重决定。FDA批准lecanemab是基于在接受治疗的临床试验参与者中观察到的淀粉样斑块减少；未接受治疗的参与者，即安慰剂组，淀粉样斑块没有减少。该药物是第一个在最近的研究中明确表明减少淀粉样蛋白会给患者带来临床益处的药物，尽管医生说它的效果相对适度并且远非治愈。尽管如此，医生们表示，它的批准是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开始发生转变。发表在《新英格兰医学杂志》上的临床试验结果发现，与未接受治疗的人相比，接受lecanemab治疗的人在18个月内的认知能力下降速度减慢了27%，该研究由百健和卫材资助。尽管lecanemab可能会在一定程度上减缓认知能力下降，但这种治疗也存在风险。接受lecanemab治疗的患者中有近13%出现脑肿胀，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例约为2%。 然而，大多数这些症状的严重程度为轻度至中度，不会引起症状，并且通常会在四个月内得到解决。不过，接受lecanemab治疗的患者中约有3%的脑肿胀更严重，症状包括头痛、视力障碍和意识模糊。接受lecanemab治疗的患者中约有17%出现脑出血，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例为9%，与出血相关的最常见症状是头晕。总体而言，接受lecanemab治疗的患者中有14%在临床试验中出现严重不良反应，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例为11%。该研究的作者表示，需要更长时间的临床试验来确定lecanemab在早期阿尔茨海默病患者中的疗效和安全性。FDA则表示，lecanemab的处方信息将包括关于脑肿胀和出血风险的警告。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIIB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953089830,"gmtCreate":1673103643221,"gmtModify":1676538787030,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df15935fcd4975731e3a98dd79ee3803","width":"750","height":"1640"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953089830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959513902,"gmtCreate":1673019964707,"gmtModify":1676538770880,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d68034699f9a1ee5674de029c86de391","width":"750","height":"1568"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959513902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950388650,"gmtCreate":1672673190271,"gmtModify":1676538718187,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950388650","repostId":"1137215289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137215289","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672629766,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137215289?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-02 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137215289","media":"期货日报","summary":"有这样三位投资者，他们的投资生涯几乎横贯了整个20世纪，其中两人还沐浴过21世纪的曙光。他们经历了1929年的大崩盘，又经历了1987年的大恐慌以及1997年的下跌；他们三人加在一起，在熊市和牛市中拥","content":"<p><div>There are three investors whose investment careers spanned almost the entire 20th century, and two of them even saw the dawn of the 21st century. They experienced the Great Crash of 1929, the Great Panic of 1987, and the recession of 1997; Together, the three of them have more than 200 years of experience owning stocks in bear and bull markets. The three investors were Philip Carey, Philip Fisher, and Roy Neuberg. By 1997, Carey was 100, Fisher was 90, and Newberg was 94. Back then, you could find them in their respective offices, and their desks...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"qhrb_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期货日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-02 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>There are three investors whose investment careers spanned almost the entire 20th century, and two of them even saw the dawn of the 21st century. They experienced the Great Crash of 1929, the Great Panic of 1987, and the recession of 1997; Together, the three of them have more than 200 years of experience owning stocks in bear and bull markets. The three investors were Philip Carey, Philip Fisher, and Roy Neuberg. By 1997, Carey was 100, Fisher was 90, and Newberg was 94. Back then, you could find them in their respective offices, and their desks...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ\">期货日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137215289","content_text":"有这样三位投资者，他们的投资生涯几乎横贯了整个20世纪，其中两人还沐浴过21世纪的曙光。他们经历了1929年的大崩盘，又经历了1987年的大恐慌以及1997年的下跌；他们三人加在一起，在熊市和牛市中拥有股票的经验超过200年。这三位投资者分别是菲利普·凯睿、菲利普·费雪以及罗伊·纽伯格。到1997年的时候，凯睿100岁、费雪90岁、纽伯格94岁。那时，你可以在他们各自的办公室里找到他们，而他们桌子旁边的同事可能是他们的曾孙。这三位世纪老人各自都写过书，凯睿著有《智慧》；费雪著有《怎样选择成长股》和《股市投资致富之道》；纽伯格著有《忠告》。这四本书都成为投资界中的不朽之作，历久而弥新。他们经历了无数个大大小小的熊市，对熊市十分亲密，现在，让我们倾听他们在熊市中的真言。凯睿活到101岁，出生于推出道琼斯指数的同一年(1884年)，一生经历了31次牛市、30次熊市、20次经济衰退以及大萧条时期。他1917年毕业于哈佛大学，并加入了哈佛商学院，在第一次世界大战末期驾驶着英国战机穿梭在法国上空，他的才智、亲切的微笑以及长期投资业绩给人们留下了深刻的印象。1927年凯睿来到纽约，加入一个公司。这个公司管理着一只共同基金，投资者为这只基金每股出价10美元，而作为公司内部的经济学家凯睿计算它最多值1美元。1929年大崩盘后，它每股最高不到1美元。伴随着市场的恐慌和崩溃，凯睿幸存了下来。他对1929年的经历记忆最为清晰。他认为，“1929年大崩盘与其说恐怖，不如说更加令人兴奋”。多数经济学家依然看多，坚信下跌只是短暂的，几乎没有人看到地平线上有任何阴云。可是到1932年，有四分之一的劳动力失去了工作。在快要绝望的情况下，凯睿发起了他的共同基金——先锋基金。50年后，先锋基金使其持有者富有，每年的复合收益率高达13%。当他离开先锋基金后，又自己管理着2.25亿美元的私人投资组合。在凯睿的投资生涯中，尽管他在大幅下跌中“减持”了一些股票，但他几乎总是看多。1987年道指一天下跌了500点，那天，他正在意大利演讲，他说，“他们想知道将会发生什么，我自己也不知道，我现在仍然不知道。”凯睿相信他不会比1997年道指在7000点时更悲观。“在我自己的投资组合里我没有为此做任何事，”他说，“如果股价下跌，投资组合也会下跌。我已经100岁了，随时都有可能失灵。如果我在熊市的底部失灵，将会节约很多遗产税。”对于凯睿先生的投资记录，伯克希尔韦公司受人尊敬的CEO沃伦巴菲特称赞他“创下了美国最好的长线投资纪录”。凯睿先生1927年率先倡导“价值投资”理念，第二年他就成立了全球第一只共同基金——先锋基金，在半个多世纪内，他所管理的这只基金取得了非凡的成就。凯睿先生主要投资那些利润持续增长、管理层乐于奉献的企业，他的这个投资方法仍被无数的专业投资人士所采用。凯睿总是让事情保持简单，他成立了一家卓越的公司，他所取得的投资成就依然受到当今世界的羡慕。凯睿总结了投机的“十二守则”一、持有的证券不要少于十种，涵盖的行业至少为五种。二、至少每半年重新评估所持有的每一种证券。三、至少把一半以上的资金放在能产生固定收益的证券上。四、分析任何股票时，把股息收益率列为最不重要的考虑因素。五、迅速认赔，不要急于获利了结。六、某些证券的资料不容易获得或公布的时间不确定，这部分证券的投入资金绝不能超过25%。七、对于“内线消息”，要像逃避瘟疫一样避之唯恐不及。八、勤于寻找事实，绝不寻求建议。九、不必理会评估证券的呆板公式。十、当股价处在高位、利率攀升、景气繁荣时，至少应该把一半的资金放在短期债券上。十一、尽量不要借钱，除非是股价处在低位、利率下降或走低、景气衰退。十二、拨出适当比例的资金，购买前景良好公司的股票和长期认股权。他说：“第十条规则是承认股市波动的循环性质，也是长期投机两派思潮的妥协。有些人认为长期投机者应该根据股市的长波段交易，设法在空头市场接近底部时购买股票，然后在多头市场接近最高点时卖掉全部持股，并把得到的钱放在短期证券中，等待另一次空头市场的买点。另一派人认为，应该购买健全的普通股长期持有，只有在一只股票的前景变差后才卖掉，转买其他更有希望的股票。理想的计划似乎应该在两个极端之间寻找折中点，虽然投机性投资人主要是想买到可能增值的股票，而不是对股市趋势本身有兴趣，但不能理所当然地忽视多头和空头市场的长期走势。多头市场经过相当程度的发展之后，一旦银根宽松的基础开始毁坏，投机者最好检视自己的持股，考虑处分其中大部分持股，这时绝对不可执着于证券当初的买进成本。”相比于凯睿，1907年生于三藩市的费雪，父母均是各自家中众多儿女中排行最小的，父亲是个医生。他与祖母特别亲近。小时候费雪就知道股票市场的存在以及股价变动带来的机会。这缘于费雪上小学时，有一天下课后去看望祖母，恰好一位伯父正与祖母谈论未来工商业的景气，以及股票可能受到的影响。费雪说：“一个全新的世界展开在我眼前。”两人虽然只讨论了10分钟，但是费雪却听得津津有味。不久，费雪就开始买卖股票。1920年代是美股狂热的年代，费雪亦赚到一点钱。然而他父亲对于其买卖股票的事情很不高兴，认为这只是赌博。一如他父亲所说，1929年，费雪被他所热衷的“赌博”困在谷底。这位后来被视为现代投资理论的开路先锋之一，成长股价值投资策略之父，教父级的投资大师，华尔街极受尊重和推崇的投资专家之一的人，在那一年，曾提交一份《25年来最严重的大空头市场将展开》的文章。这是他最令人赞叹的股市预测，可惜他看空做多。他说：“我免不了被股市的魅力所惑。于是我到处寻找一些还算便宜的股票，以及值得投资的对象，因为它们还没涨到位。”他投入几千美元到3只股票中。这3只股票均是低P／E股，一家是火车头公司，一家是广告看板公司，另一家是出租汽车公司。股市崩溃后，尽管费雪预测无线电股将暴跌，但是他持有的3只股票也好不了多少，到1932年，他的损失极为惨重。尽管这段经历让他相信在熊市中应该减轻仓位，但在这之后的60年中，他在所有的上涨和下跌中都保持满仓投资。他在90岁以后，依然是一个积极的管理者，有很多大客户。每年至少走访在其投资组合中的公司两次。他偏好于拥有6~9个公司，但是对于他拥有什么股票拒绝评论，因为他认为对于客户而言，无偿透露这些股票是不公平的。在1929年后费雪只有两次感觉到另一次大衰退即将到来。1987年，他在《福布斯》的专栏上发布了一次熊市警报。1997年，他说，我有一种感觉，今天我们正走的路就是1927~1929年之间的某个地方。“足够的人感到恐慌，因此我们还没有达到顶部，但是当我听到谈论关于现在是一个新时代，一个永久繁荣的高地，以及其他一些胡扯时，我感到不安。这和我在1929年大崩盘之后从另一个费雪那里听到的评论相同。”费雪的投资人十不原则一、不买处于创业阶段的公司。二、不要因为一只好股票未上市交易，就弃之不顾。三、不要因为你喜欢某公司年报的格调，就去买该公司的股票。四、不要因为一家公司的本益比高，便表示未来的盈余成长已大致反映在价格上。五、不要锱铢计较。六、不要过度强调分散投资。七、不要担心在战争阴影笼罩下买进股票。八、不要忘了你的吉尔伯特和沙利文。九、买进真正优秀的成长股时，除了考虑价格，不要忘了时机因素。十、不要随群众起舞。费雪说，股票投资，有时难免有些地方需要靠运气，但长期而言，好运、倒霉会相抵，想要持续成功，必须靠技能和运用良好的原则。根据费雪的原则架构，相信未来属于那些能够自律且肯付出心血的人。1903年出生于美国的纽伯格也是在1929年离开巴黎来到华尔街的。他是唯一同时在华尔街经历了1929年大萧条和1987年股市崩溃的人。初到华尔街的时候，他开始了在经纪商和交易员中的生活。当年3月份，买了自己的第一只股票，但他也卖空股票。当时他卖空的是美国广播公司（RCA）的股票，这只股票在1股分为5股前价格达到了574美元，并且没有什么原因会导致它过分修正股价。纽伯格找老一点的投资者寻找其解释，没有得到有启发的答案，人们都这样说，“我们正在进入一个广播的时代”。纽伯格预感到一旦推波助澜者获取利润将发生崩盘，最终这只股票的价格达到2美元。与此同时，纽伯格在卖空时赚取了利润。5个月后，当道指恢复其跌幅一半时，金融家和政治领袖们宣布这是一种反常情况，预测繁荣马上就会来临。纽伯格后来回忆道：“他们都错了。”纽伯格在这次大崩盘和后续结果中盈亏平衡，来自空头头寸的盈利与他来自多头头寸的亏损相等。1939年纽伯格创立了自己的公司。1950年创建低佣金的“保护者基金”，为美国开放式基金之父。在“95%的时间”纽伯格是看多的，只有偶尔会做空。同样的手法也发生在以后的投资岁月里。“我在1972~1973年后期对冲了我的投资组合，”纽伯格回忆说，1987年，“我在一轮可笑的价格上涨之后，对投资组合进行了对冲。”1997年，在经历了一轮可笑的上涨之后，“我又一次进行了对冲。在目前这个时点，我卖空股指期货，卖空微软，卖空可口可乐——这个世界上最受欢迎的饮料。”纽伯格解释说，1996年可口可乐销售仅增长3%，“我想不通人们为什么愿意支付42倍市盈率的价格。”但是他又说，“到目前为止，我在这件事上还是个傻瓜，我应该意识到全世界都对可口可乐上瘾。”纽伯格投资十大原则一、了解自己投资者的成功是建立在已有的知识和经验基础上的。你最好在自己熟悉的领域进行专业投资，如果你知之甚少，或者根本没有对公司及细节进行分析，你最好还是离它远点。在你真正成为一名投资者之前，你也应该检查一下身体和精神是否合格。好的身体是你做出明智判断的基础，不要低估它。二、向成功的投资者学习即使是成功的投资者，他们中的许多人也在本世纪末度过了一段艰难时期。我和他们中许多人交谈过，其中只有一小部分人相信，1996年在股票一涨再涨的情况下，他们还能把握市场的形势。三、“羊市”思维个人投资者对一只股票的影响，有时会让它上下浮动10个百分点，但那只是一瞬间，一般是一天，不会超过一个星期。这种市场即非牛市也非熊市。我称这样的市场为“羊市”。有时羊群会遭到杀戮，有时会被剪掉一身羊毛。有时可以幸运地逃脱，保住羊毛。“羊市”与时装业有些类似。时装大师设计新款时装，二流设计师仿制它，成千上万的人追赶它，所以裙子忽短忽长。四、坚持长线思维注重短线投资容易忽略长线投资的重要性。企业经常投入大量资金，进行长线投资，当然同时会有短期效应，如果短期效果占主导作用，那将危害公司的发展和前景。获利应建立在长线投资、有效管理、抓住机遇的基础上。如果安排好这些，短线投资就不会占主要地位。五、及时进退时机可能不能决定所有事情，但时机可以决定许多事情。本来可能是一个好的长线投资，但是如果在错误的时间买入，情况会很糟。有的时候，如果你适时购入一只高投机股票，你同样可以赚钱。优秀的证券分析人可以不追随市场大流而做得很好，但如果顺潮流而动，操作起来就更简单些。把握有利时机一部分是靠直觉，一部分却正相反。时机的选定要靠自己的独立思维。在经济运行中，升势可能在跌势中产生，衰退会从高潮开始。在有的时期，普通股票是最好的投资，但是在另一时期，也许房地产业是最好的。任何事情都在变，人们也要学会变。我完全不信会存在一个永久不变的产业。六、认真分析公司状况必须认真研究公司的管理状况、领导层、公司业绩以及公司目标，尤其需要认真分析公司真实的资产状况，包括：设备价值及每股净资产。这个概念在世纪初曾被广泛重视，但这之后几乎被遗忘了。如果你能控制一家公司的整体市价，你就可以从中获得更多的利润。七、不要陷入情网在这个充满冒险的世界里，因为存在着许多可能性，人们会痴迷于某种想法、某个人、某种理想。最后能使人痴迷的恐怕就算股票了。但它只是一张证明你对一家企业所有权的纸，它只是金钱的一种象征。八、投资多元化，但不做套头交易套头交易就是对一些股票做多头，对另一些股票做空头。专业人士在日常的市场利用套头交易回避风险，有时新入市做套头交易只是一场赌博。我不赞成这样做。但也没有法律禁止它。套头交易的确是现代股票的一项变革，一个世纪以前当你从纽约和伦敦市场购买同一种股票时，城市间的差价只是些微的。专家们从一个市场买进一只股票，又在另一个市场上卖掉它，虽然赚钱很少，但还是有盈利的。九、观察周围环境我所说的环境是指市场走向和整个世界的环境。你需要变通我给你的那些模式，以适应你所在的市场的运作。股票不分季节，按照日历投资是没有必要的。记住，对投资者来讲，任何时候都是冒险的。对享受人生和享受投资快乐的人来说，季节虽多变，但机会随时都有。十、不要墨守成规根据形势的变化改变自己的思维方式是有必要的。我的观点是，你应该主动根据经济、政治因素的变化而变化。至于技术上，有时我们可以控制，但有时却是在我们控制之外的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950381246,"gmtCreate":1672673145086,"gmtModify":1676538718164,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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22:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Russia countered \"price limits\" and had warned of implementing crude oil production cuts and sales bans","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127484622","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"俄罗斯明年将生产至少4.9亿至5亿吨石油，相当于984万至1004万桶/日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>In response to Western price limits, Russia may retaliate by cutting production.</p><p>On Monday, CCTV News previously reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin will sign a decree today or tomorrow in response to Western price caps on Russian oil.</p><p>Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia will ban the supply of oil and oil products to countries that comply with price caps imposed by Western countries, and may cut oil production by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in early 2023. A production cut of 500,000-700,000 barrels is equivalent to 5%-7% of Russia's crude oil production.</p><p>In an interview on Sunday, Novak pointed out that Russia may increase crude oil exports if the EU ban leads to a decrease in refinery production. If there are problems with petroleum product sales, oil refining can be replaced to some extent by more oil exports. The EU ban may still not affect Russian oil refining.</p><p>Novak added that Russia will produce at least 490 million to 500 million tons of oil next year, equivalent to 9.84 million to 10.04 million barrels per day.</p><p>Previously, the EU imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil exports in an effort to crack down on Russia's oil revenues. After the agreement officially takes effect on December 5, if the price of Russian crude oil exceeds the threshold of $60 per barrel, EU companies will be prohibited from providing insurance, financial and other services for Russian crude oil transportation.</p><p>Affected by the aforementioned sanctions, Russia's seaborne oil exports have declined significantly. Data shows that in the first full week after the EU's ban on Russian crude oil took effect, crude oil exports from Russia fell by 1.86 million barrels per day, a plunge of about 54%, to 1.6 million barrels, a new low for the year. As of December 21, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in December had fallen to their lowest level since January 2021.</p><p>In a recent interview, Russian Finance Minister Siluanov stated that Russia will not supply oil at prices set by the West, and will seek new markets and logistics even as costs continue to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Russia countered \"price limits\" and had warned of implementing crude oil production cuts and sales bans</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRussia countered \"price limits\" and had warned of implementing crude oil production cuts and sales bans\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-26 22:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>In response to Western price limits, Russia may retaliate by cutting production.</p><p>On Monday, CCTV News previously reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin will sign a decree today or tomorrow in response to Western price caps on Russian oil.</p><p>Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia will ban the supply of oil and oil products to countries that comply with price caps imposed by Western countries, and may cut oil production by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in early 2023. A production cut of 500,000-700,000 barrels is equivalent to 5%-7% of Russia's crude oil production.</p><p>In an interview on Sunday, Novak pointed out that Russia may increase crude oil exports if the EU ban leads to a decrease in refinery production. If there are problems with petroleum product sales, oil refining can be replaced to some extent by more oil exports. The EU ban may still not affect Russian oil refining.</p><p>Novak added that Russia will produce at least 490 million to 500 million tons of oil next year, equivalent to 9.84 million to 10.04 million barrels per day.</p><p>Previously, the EU imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil exports in an effort to crack down on Russia's oil revenues. After the agreement officially takes effect on December 5, if the price of Russian crude oil exceeds the threshold of $60 per barrel, EU companies will be prohibited from providing insurance, financial and other services for Russian crude oil transportation.</p><p>Affected by the aforementioned sanctions, Russia's seaborne oil exports have declined significantly. Data shows that in the first full week after the EU's ban on Russian crude oil took effect, crude oil exports from Russia fell by 1.86 million barrels per day, a plunge of about 54%, to 1.6 million barrels, a new low for the year. As of December 21, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in December had fallen to their lowest level since January 2021.</p><p>In a recent interview, Russian Finance Minister Siluanov stated that Russia will not supply oil at prices set by the West, and will seek new markets and logistics even as costs continue to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678362\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678362","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1127484622","content_text":"作者：赵颖面对西方的限价令，俄罗斯或将实施减产予以反制。周一，据央视新闻此前报道，俄罗斯总统普京将在今天或明天签署一项关于西方对俄罗斯石油限价的应对法令。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯将禁止向遵守西方国家规定的价格上限的国家供应石油和石油产品，并可能在2023年年初每天减产石油50万至70万桶。50-70万桶的减产，相当于俄罗斯原油产量的5%-7%。诺瓦克在周日接受采访时指出，如果欧盟禁令导致炼油厂产量下降，俄罗斯可能会增加原油出口。如果石油产品销售出现问题，炼油在一定程度上可以被更多的石油出口量所取代。欧盟的禁令仍有可能不会影响俄罗斯的炼油。诺瓦克补充说，俄罗斯明年将生产至少4.9亿至5亿吨石油，相当于984万至1004万桶/日。此前，欧盟对俄罗斯海运石油出口设置每桶60美元价格上限，以打击俄罗斯的石油收入。协议12月5日正式生效后，如果俄原油价格超过每桶60美元的门槛，将禁止欧盟企业为俄原油运输提供保险、金融等服务。受上述制裁措施影响，俄罗斯海运石油出口量显著下滑。数据显示，在欧盟对俄罗斯原油禁令生效后的第一个完整的一周内，从俄罗斯出口的原油每天下降186万桶，暴跌约54%，至160万桶，创下今年新低。截至12月21日，俄罗斯12月份海运原油出口量已降至2021年1月以来的最低水平。俄罗斯财政部部长西卢安诺夫在最新的采访中表示，俄罗斯不会按西方设定的价格供应石油，即便成本不断上升，也要寻找新的市场和物流。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925562387,"gmtCreate":1672068145350,"gmtModify":1676538629471,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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17:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Does the Spring Festival offer conditions for family reunions? Zhang Boli responded","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148756326","media":"新华社","summary":"相关准备工作仍需加强，个人防疫意识和措施切不可放松。","content":"<p><div>Authors: Zhang Jianxin and Bai Jiali In the past week, the Omega virus has been spreading rapidly, and more and more people have tested positive. Will people who have been infected repeatedly get infected? Are the anti-epidemic traditional Chinese medicine prescriptions circulating online reliable? Can traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine be taken together? In response to current hot issues of public concern, Academician Zhang Boli gave an exclusive interview to Xinhua News Agency's \"Xinhua Viewpoint\" reporter. Hot Topic 1: The number of infected people in some cities such as Beijing has increased significantly, but the situation in other cities has remained relatively stable. What are the reasons for this difference? Zhang Boli: This difference is related to Beijing's large population and high density, which leads to a faster spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, Beijing in this round...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"XHS1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does the Spring Festival offer conditions for family reunions? 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Zhang Boli responded\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新华社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-14 17:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Authors: Zhang Jianxin and Bai Jiali In the past week, the Omega virus has been spreading rapidly, and more and more people have tested positive. Will people who have been infected repeatedly get infected? Are the anti-epidemic traditional Chinese medicine prescriptions circulating online reliable? Can traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine be taken together? In response to current hot issues of public concern, Academician Zhang Boli gave an exclusive interview to Xinhua News Agency's \"Xinhua Viewpoint\" reporter. Hot Topic 1: The number of infected people in some cities such as Beijing has increased significantly, but the situation in other cities has remained relatively stable. What are the reasons for this difference? Zhang Boli: This difference is related to Beijing's large population and high density, which leads to a faster spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, Beijing in this round...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">新华社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02dee44c1d24aa837c7fbef3689d297","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148756326","content_text":"作者：张建新、白佳丽近一周来，奥密克戎病毒来势汹汹，越来越多的人中招变阳。感染过的人会不会反复感染？网上流传的抗疫中药方靠谱吗？中药西药能一起吃吗？……针对当下公众关心的热点问题，张伯礼院士接受了新华社“新华视点”记者的专访。热点一：北京等一些城市感染者数量明显增加，但另外一些城市情况较平稳，导致这种差异的原因是什么？张伯礼：这种差异与北京人口多、密度大有关，导致疫情传播速度更快。同时，北京本轮疫情的主要毒株是奥密克戎BF.7毒株，与奥密克戎其他变异株相比具有更强的传染性和免疫逃逸能力。这种变异株主要在上呼吸道复制，这意味着感染者容易在说话、咳嗽时造成病毒的传播，进一步促进了病毒的传播。此外，北方寒冷，又值感冒、流感的高发季，更加深了疫情严重的印象。热点二：感染过新冠的人会不会反复感染？张伯礼：有些传染病，确实在一次感染后会获得持久甚至终身免疫，比如水痘。而新冠病毒感染与之不同，通过对国内外奥密克戎疫情的观察可以得出结论，由于新冠病毒不断发生变异，且有较强免疫逃逸能力，当前流行的奥密克戎毒株具有多个亚型，人体对奥密克戎不同亚型难以建立全面的免疫屏障，在感染新冠病毒之后，少数人有可能还会再次被感染，这方面还需开展更多的研究。二次感染的情况是因人而异的，要根据感染者当时的免疫力和病毒的强弱程度来考量。一般而言，二次感染与首次感染的症状没有太大区别。如果感染了同一个亚型的病毒，二次感染的症状会轻于首次感染。因此，即使感染康复后个人防护措施仍应当坚持。热点三：很多人关心新冠后遗症的问题，这种担忧有必要吗？张伯礼：是否称为“后遗症”“长新冠”还可以讨论。部分患者在康复期确实还存在一些症状，没有完全恢复。原始毒株和德尔塔毒株所致的感染大约有10%的患者转阴后有此类症状存在。但目前初步观察，奥密克戎毒株引发新冠这类症状风险显著降低，无症状感染者基本无新冠后遗症。奥密克戎感染不可怕，绝大多数感染者可在7-10天内完全恢复。对于新冠“后遗症”，不用过度担忧和恐慌。但由于感染者基数大，患者治愈后出现的一些持续症状，还需要进一步观察研究。中医讲“瘥后防复”。我们在武汉总结的经验是早期康复、综合康复、自我康复，用中药、针灸、推拿以及传统功法等，能够促进患者愈后，改善乏力、气短等症状。延续新冠康复的经验，发挥中医药在康复方面的特色优势，不断优化康复路径和方法，采取积极的干预措施，让治愈者的身心达到更好的状态。热点四：中药西药是否可以一起吃？张伯礼：当前应当呼吁广大民众理性用药、合理用药，切忌病急乱投医以及过量用药。如果被感染，西药退烧药与中药感冒药尽量不要同服，如服用连花清瘟、金花清感、宣肺败毒颗粒等有退热功效的中成药，就不再联合服用布洛芬或对乙酰氨基酚了。其他中药西药如服用也应间隔1小时，避免互相影响。当然若是服用了感冒类中药，但咽痛明显，可以加服六神丸、清咽滴丸等对症药。同时应把握“中病即止”原则，症状消失后及时停止用药。中药感冒药也尽量只选一种服用，没必要两三种一起服用，这类药多含有清热解毒类的苦寒药，叠加使用易伤脾胃，不利于愈后。西药退烧药同样如此，选用一种即可，避免联合用药，要注意每日服用剂量不要超标，否则可能会对肝脏带来损伤。热点五：现在网上流传着很多预防或治疗新冠的中药方，以及一些所谓“很灵”的食补方，您怎么看？张伯礼：根据中医“三因制宜”的原则，不同的地域、不同的人群、不同的季节防治疾病的方剂都有所不同，需因时因人因地裁方用药，食补也是同样道理。网上流传的这些中药方可能对一部分人起效，但不一定对其他人群有效，甚至有反作用。建议药方、食补方宜在中医师指导下合理使用。对患者而言，多喝水，多吃富含维C的水果、新鲜蔬菜，注意休息，保障睡眠都是重要的。热点六：接下来疫情感染的走势会怎样？张伯礼：根据目前国内形势，奥密克戎毒株已在社会面传播，又值冬季流感、普通感冒的高发季，接下来1至2个月会迎来一波流行高峰。新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，我国预防与治疗相结合，中西医并重，中西药并用，新冠肺炎重症率和病亡率保持在较低水平。但随着感染基数的不断增大，重症感染者人数也将大概率出现增长。国家有关部门已经部署医疗单位，加强重症救治的床位及医务人员培训工作。尽管新冠病毒呈现致病力减弱的趋势，奥密克戎变异株依然对老年人和有严重基础性疾病人群的健康产生较大威胁，如何在流行高峰期保护好这些人群是接下来疫情防控的重点工作。热点七：今年春节具备大家团圆过节的条件吗？张伯礼：国务院联防联控机制“新十条”的发布，让有乡愁的人们有了回家过年的盼头。团圆是中国人对春节最大的期盼，将心比心，将疫情防控工作与暖心服务更好地结合起来，也是我国疫情防控政策优化调整的方向。在疫情新形势下，相信疫情防控部门和各地政府也都在未雨绸缪，因地制宜制定返乡政策，今年大概率是个团圆年。但春运人员迁徙传播风险较高，相关准备工作仍需加强，个人防疫意识和措施切不可放松。热点八：近期不少人因为觉得可能被感染处于焦虑中，您想对他们说什么？张伯礼：中医常讲七情致病，恐慌焦虑等不良情绪可能导致人体免疫力下降，积极的心态对于预防和治疗疾病都具有非常大的好处，应以变应变。与第一代病毒、德尔塔病毒致病性不同，现在奥密克戎感染致病力较弱。平常得感冒、流感不紧张，现在也没有必要紧张，尤其是年轻人更不用紧张。在日常生活中要坚持过去行之有效的防控措施，保持社交距离，正确佩戴口罩，做好手部消毒，注意室内通风，不聚集，少聚餐，规律作息，保证睡眠，防护措施到位，能够对新冠起到有效的预防作用。积极做好情绪平复工作，自我调适，进行如读书、八段锦、太极拳等一些活动，以放松身心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9093225911,"gmtCreate":1643642938514,"gmtModify":1676533839494,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093225911","repostId":"1176041035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176041035","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1643611390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176041035?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-31 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With the Federal Reserve's tightening storm looming, everyone is asking where the stock market is bottoming out.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176041035","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment mean that the rate hike and shrinking balance sheet storms in the United States will unleash a frenzy, quickly and rapidly.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's January interest rate meeting released strong hawkish signals, not only kicking off a rate hike but also followed closely by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there has been no progress in the supply chain, indicating that he is very concerned about inflation and that high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>Wall Street banks currently expect a rate hike to begin in March, four rate hike throughout the year, and a shrinking balance sheet to begin around July. How far should the Federal Reserve's $9 trillion balance sheet shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom in the stock market?</b>As of now, the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 10% from its high, and the Nasdaq 100 has also fallen more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of tightening has had a spillover effect globally. Even in China, which initiated policy easing, A-shares fell below 3,400 points last week.</p><p>Several U.S. stock traders told the author that, constrained by extremely high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (which the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when it falls), which has worked repeatedly for more than a decade, is gradually becoming ineffective, and the strategy of \"buying on dips\" may be phased out.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline in US stocks, a technical rebound is likely in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline. The S&P 500's 4818 points may be the highest level in the past two years, and some traders have even given a target level of 3800 points for the future market.</p><p><b>The austerity storm is coming</b></p><p>Powell adopted a hawkish stance at a press conference that began at 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on January 27. Compared to his dovish monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish, causing risk assets to fall and the three major U.S. stock indexes to turn from rising to falling.</p><p>Powell reiterated that he would quickly exit the quantitative easing plan, while also hinting that rate hike could likely be initiated as early as the next meeting in March.</p><p>Some highlights of the press conference are as follows: Wages are growing rapidly; The inflation rate remains well above the long-term target and has a wider impact; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The Committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would soon come; Powell does not rule out conducting rate hike at every FOMC meeting; There is considerable room for interest rates to rise; The FOMC intends to hold a rate hike at its March meeting; The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is far larger than necessary; Inflation risks remain upward; Inflation may remain high for longer than expected.</p><p>A trader mentioned to the author that we need to be wary of the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points in March, just as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in one go after the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 to implement unexpected policy adjustments. The resilience of the job market provides ample room for rate hike to avoid a recession. \"The US GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5%. Growth may slow down, but it will not lead to negative growth or a recession.\"</p><p>The newly released preliminary estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter shows that the economic growth rate was 6.9%, higher than the expected 5.5% and the previous estimate of 2.3%. One important piece of information worth noting is the inflation sub-indicator known as the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the indicator rose to 7% from the previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data point is the preliminary values of the personal consumption index and the core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, while the expected and previous values were both 5.4%. The core personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and with high oil prices and ongoing supply chain problems, inflation is unlikely to decline in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it does not tighten soon, the Federal Reserve will face enormous political and social pressure, especially since the prices of boxed lunches and milk in the United States have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks are far from finished falling.</b></p><p>Constrained by extremely high inflation, the central bank's \"put options,\" which have worked repeatedly for more than a decade, are gradually becoming ineffective, and US stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" that has accumulated over more than a decade of low interest rates and the continuous rise of the stock market will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound during the decline, until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>“I think the market will continue to decline, but since we are now in oversold territory, a rebound is possible during the downward trend, but I don’t think it will last,” Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author. “Rising interest rates will lead to higher discount rates for future cash, which will put pressure on valuations and impact the profit margins of growth technology companies. Furthermore, although earnings have not been revised downwards, earnings results are only in line with or slightly exceeding expectations, while earnings guidance is weaker than expected. All of these factors will cause growth technology stocks to continue to decline.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Netflix's guidance fell short of expectations, with the market expecting more than 5 million new subscribers, but the actual increase was only 2.85 million.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The company's performance met expectations, but cloud computing revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will continue throughout 2022 and may affect shipments. While the performance of large companies that the market is paying attention to is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why Microsoft's stock price plummeted when its earnings release was released, and Tesla's stock price also plummeted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Besides the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 is also not optimistic. \"I believe the S&P 500 has further downside potential. Today, the index remained near the 200-day moving average, and I think it will fall further, possibly towards 3800 points in the future. This is also the 50% retracement range from the low point in the fall of 2020 to the high point in early January 2022,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The key is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, putting already high inflation under renewed upward pressure. Many institutions predict that oil prices are likely to break through the $100 mark amid the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Even without this important factor, declining inventories will lead to a rise in oil prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry stated, \"Oil prices still have room to rise, especially given the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the inability of OPEC production to climb. They may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but the possibility is greater in the second and third quarters, when crude oil demand will also rise.\"</p><p><b>Currently, tensions are escalating on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Last week, both sides stated they would hold further negotiations within two weeks, but this period could still create significant uncertainty.</b>The U.S. Secretary of State previously warned that \"if Russia sends another additional troop into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The British Foreign Office estimates that around 100,000 Russian troops are currently massed at the border.</p><p>International asset managers believe that a diplomatic response is more likely, while full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes the reason is severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union. Cancel the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that passes through Ukraine; It could permanently shift the EU away from its dependence on Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of Western Europe's total energy consumption, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia appears to be facing too many economic risks to take this gamble. Therefore, a more likely scenario is a diplomatic response: Russia will withdraw its troops if NATO commits to ceasing political and military contacts with Ukraine and allows the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project to enter EU countries. This could immediately alleviate soaring energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if an armed conflict breaks out? Global oil supplies will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect oil supply to decline by 2.3 million barrels per day, which would nearly double oil prices to around $150 per barrel, thus reducing global GDP by 1.6%. This will put enormous upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks may preemptively raise policy interest rates to curb the economic rebound.</p><p>However, from an investment perspective, regardless of what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices high, and severe supply disruptions that could result from military action would only further drive up energy prices.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A-share market shifts downwards</b></p><p><b>Turning to the Chinese stock market, US monetary tightening caused US stocks to fall. China's monetary policy is loose, but A-shares have fallen more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>The CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.6% since January 26. However, institutional investors interviewed by the author generally believe that it is recommended to remain calm in February and not rush to increase positions.</p><p>AVIC Trust stated that economic data in December last year fell short of expectations, with significant negative growth in indicators such as real estate investment, sales, and new construction starts, and a slowdown in consumption growth. With the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics in January and February, the epidemic prevention and control situation will be more severe, and consumption will be relatively weak. The real estate market is in its off-season, and struggling real estate companies are struggling to improve, continuing to drag down the economy. The highlight of the macroeconomy remains foreign trade, with imports and exports in the first quarter expected to continue last year's trend and maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the slowdown in economic growth will lead to a continued decline in corporate profit growth in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened, with the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rate lowered by 10 basis points in January. The monetary easing in the fourth quarter of last year was small-scale, but this year there has been a clear shift in monetary policy. However, fiscal efforts will have to wait until after the \"Two Sessions,\" and the lag in fiscal policy has resulted in a lack of \"focus\" for monetary policy in the first quarter, leaving the effort with nowhere to be used. In addition, the market expects the Federal Reserve to begin rate hike in March, and there may be 3-4 rate hike this year, which will also offset some of the effects of domestic easing.</p><p>Currently, there is insufficient incremental funds in the A-share market. The issuance of public funds has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, with only 60-70 billion yuan in new public funds issued in January. Quantitative products began to perform poorly in the fourth quarter of last year, leading to investor redemptions.<b>Northbound capital flowed into A-shares significantly in 2021, but given the China Securities Regulatory Commission's strict regulation of \"fake foreign capital,\" the scale of northbound capital inflows this year is expected to be weaker than last year.</b>The transition period for the new asset management regulations has ended, and the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is nearing completion, reducing the sources of incremental funds for the stock market.</p><p>Taking the recent sharp pullback/retracement in new energy stocks as an example, investment institutions are currently paying more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, a valuation of 40 times might be reasonable. However, if a valuation of 50-60 times, or even hundreds of times, was previously given, there would inevitably be an element of irrationality, which would increase the possibility of subsequent valuation cuts. \"As for whether it's worth it now...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>The judgment is not difficult—the current economic climate has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then there is a 30% chance of making money. If it only returns to 40 times, then the potential for profit from buying is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the Federal Reserve's tightening storm looming, everyone is asking where the stock market is bottoming out.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the Federal Reserve's tightening storm looming, everyone is asking where the stock market is bottoming out.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-31 14:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment mean that the rate hike and shrinking balance sheet storms in the United States will unleash a frenzy, quickly and rapidly.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's January interest rate meeting released strong hawkish signals, not only kicking off a rate hike but also followed closely by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there has been no progress in the supply chain, indicating that he is very concerned about inflation and that high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>Wall Street banks currently expect a rate hike to begin in March, four rate hike throughout the year, and a shrinking balance sheet to begin around July. How far should the Federal Reserve's $9 trillion balance sheet shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom in the stock market?</b>As of now, the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 10% from its high, and the Nasdaq 100 has also fallen more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of tightening has had a spillover effect globally. Even in China, which initiated policy easing, A-shares fell below 3,400 points last week.</p><p>Several U.S. stock traders told the author that, constrained by extremely high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (which the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when it falls), which has worked repeatedly for more than a decade, is gradually becoming ineffective, and the strategy of \"buying on dips\" may be phased out.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline in US stocks, a technical rebound is likely in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline. The S&P 500's 4818 points may be the highest level in the past two years, and some traders have even given a target level of 3800 points for the future market.</p><p><b>The austerity storm is coming</b></p><p>Powell adopted a hawkish stance at a press conference that began at 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on January 27. Compared to his dovish monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish, causing risk assets to fall and the three major U.S. stock indexes to turn from rising to falling.</p><p>Powell reiterated that he would quickly exit the quantitative easing plan, while also hinting that rate hike could likely be initiated as early as the next meeting in March.</p><p>Some highlights of the press conference are as follows: Wages are growing rapidly; The inflation rate remains well above the long-term target and has a wider impact; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The Committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would soon come; Powell does not rule out conducting rate hike at every FOMC meeting; There is considerable room for interest rates to rise; The FOMC intends to hold a rate hike at its March meeting; The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is far larger than necessary; Inflation risks remain upward; Inflation may remain high for longer than expected.</p><p>A trader mentioned to the author that we need to be wary of the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points in March, just as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in one go after the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 to implement unexpected policy adjustments. The resilience of the job market provides ample room for rate hike to avoid a recession. \"The US GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5%. Growth may slow down, but it will not lead to negative growth or a recession.\"</p><p>The newly released preliminary estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter shows that the economic growth rate was 6.9%, higher than the expected 5.5% and the previous estimate of 2.3%. One important piece of information worth noting is the inflation sub-indicator known as the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the indicator rose to 7% from the previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data point is the preliminary values of the personal consumption index and the core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, while the expected and previous values were both 5.4%. The core personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and with high oil prices and ongoing supply chain problems, inflation is unlikely to decline in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it does not tighten soon, the Federal Reserve will face enormous political and social pressure, especially since the prices of boxed lunches and milk in the United States have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks are far from finished falling.</b></p><p>Constrained by extremely high inflation, the central bank's \"put options,\" which have worked repeatedly for more than a decade, are gradually becoming ineffective, and US stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" that has accumulated over more than a decade of low interest rates and the continuous rise of the stock market will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound during the decline, until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>“I think the market will continue to decline, but since we are now in oversold territory, a rebound is possible during the downward trend, but I don’t think it will last,” Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author. “Rising interest rates will lead to higher discount rates for future cash, which will put pressure on valuations and impact the profit margins of growth technology companies. Furthermore, although earnings have not been revised downwards, earnings results are only in line with or slightly exceeding expectations, while earnings guidance is weaker than expected. All of these factors will cause growth technology stocks to continue to decline.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Netflix's guidance fell short of expectations, with the market expecting more than 5 million new subscribers, but the actual increase was only 2.85 million.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The company's performance met expectations, but cloud computing revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will continue throughout 2022 and may affect shipments. While the performance of large companies that the market is paying attention to is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why Microsoft's stock price plummeted when its earnings release was released, and Tesla's stock price also plummeted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Besides the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 is also not optimistic. \"I believe the S&P 500 has further downside potential. Today, the index remained near the 200-day moving average, and I think it will fall further, possibly towards 3800 points in the future. This is also the 50% retracement range from the low point in the fall of 2020 to the high point in early January 2022,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The key is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, putting already high inflation under renewed upward pressure. Many institutions predict that oil prices are likely to break through the $100 mark amid the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Even without this important factor, declining inventories will lead to a rise in oil prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry stated, \"Oil prices still have room to rise, especially given the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the inability of OPEC production to climb. They may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but the possibility is greater in the second and third quarters, when crude oil demand will also rise.\"</p><p><b>Currently, tensions are escalating on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Last week, both sides stated they would hold further negotiations within two weeks, but this period could still create significant uncertainty.</b>The U.S. Secretary of State previously warned that \"if Russia sends another additional troop into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The British Foreign Office estimates that around 100,000 Russian troops are currently massed at the border.</p><p>International asset managers believe that a diplomatic response is more likely, while full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes the reason is severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union. Cancel the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that passes through Ukraine; It could permanently shift the EU away from its dependence on Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of Western Europe's total energy consumption, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia appears to be facing too many economic risks to take this gamble. Therefore, a more likely scenario is a diplomatic response: Russia will withdraw its troops if NATO commits to ceasing political and military contacts with Ukraine and allows the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project to enter EU countries. This could immediately alleviate soaring energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if an armed conflict breaks out? Global oil supplies will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect oil supply to decline by 2.3 million barrels per day, which would nearly double oil prices to around $150 per barrel, thus reducing global GDP by 1.6%. This will put enormous upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks may preemptively raise policy interest rates to curb the economic rebound.</p><p>However, from an investment perspective, regardless of what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices high, and severe supply disruptions that could result from military action would only further drive up energy prices.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A-share market shifts downwards</b></p><p><b>Turning to the Chinese stock market, US monetary tightening caused US stocks to fall. China's monetary policy is loose, but A-shares have fallen more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>The CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.6% since January 26. However, institutional investors interviewed by the author generally believe that it is recommended to remain calm in February and not rush to increase positions.</p><p>AVIC Trust stated that economic data in December last year fell short of expectations, with significant negative growth in indicators such as real estate investment, sales, and new construction starts, and a slowdown in consumption growth. With the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics in January and February, the epidemic prevention and control situation will be more severe, and consumption will be relatively weak. The real estate market is in its off-season, and struggling real estate companies are struggling to improve, continuing to drag down the economy. The highlight of the macroeconomy remains foreign trade, with imports and exports in the first quarter expected to continue last year's trend and maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the slowdown in economic growth will lead to a continued decline in corporate profit growth in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened, with the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rate lowered by 10 basis points in January. The monetary easing in the fourth quarter of last year was small-scale, but this year there has been a clear shift in monetary policy. However, fiscal efforts will have to wait until after the \"Two Sessions,\" and the lag in fiscal policy has resulted in a lack of \"focus\" for monetary policy in the first quarter, leaving the effort with nowhere to be used. In addition, the market expects the Federal Reserve to begin rate hike in March, and there may be 3-4 rate hike this year, which will also offset some of the effects of domestic easing.</p><p>Currently, there is insufficient incremental funds in the A-share market. The issuance of public funds has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, with only 60-70 billion yuan in new public funds issued in January. Quantitative products began to perform poorly in the fourth quarter of last year, leading to investor redemptions.<b>Northbound capital flowed into A-shares significantly in 2021, but given the China Securities Regulatory Commission's strict regulation of \"fake foreign capital,\" the scale of northbound capital inflows this year is expected to be weaker than last year.</b>The transition period for the new asset management regulations has ended, and the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is nearing completion, reducing the sources of incremental funds for the stock market.</p><p>Taking the recent sharp pullback/retracement in new energy stocks as an example, investment institutions are currently paying more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, a valuation of 40 times might be reasonable. However, if a valuation of 50-60 times, or even hundreds of times, was previously given, there would inevitably be an element of irrationality, which would increase the possibility of subsequent valuation cuts. \"As for whether it's worth it now...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>The judgment is not difficult—the current economic climate has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then there is a 30% chance of making money. If it only returns to 40 times, then the potential for profit from buying is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75adecb2c4a2991eb1db80f007a7b5f8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176041035","content_text":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。紧缩风暴来袭鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。美股远未跌完受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”| 纳斯达克100指数他提及，此前奈飞（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；微软的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；特斯拉发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。A股中枢下移转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不值得买，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036298332,"gmtCreate":1647097498484,"gmtModify":1676534194780,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036298332","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! Will the Federal Reserve's decision next week reverse risk sentiment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will see the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off a rate hike. \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side,\" said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower. \"We'll see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to be finalized, but shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated that he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand, and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear forecast for expected policy action.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 7.9% in February, a 40-year high and slightly higher than the expected 7.8% for this year. The CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong, high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control. That's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Federal Reserve to make “good progress” on its plans to reduce its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize these plans at its meeting on March 15-16.</p><p>'The key is that interest rate expectations have already fluctuated significantly, and this volatility is likely to continue as data comes out, which could exacerbate volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve,' said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of this year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply due to expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, while the rise in longer-term yields has been less dramatic.</p><p>The yield curve itself is considered an important indicator. An inverted curve, especially when the yield on 2-year or shorter US Treasury bonds is higher than the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, has always been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>Some analysts say this has not yet happened, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies could lead to a recession. Others offered a more moderate explanation: the flattening of interest rates reflected market expectations that the Federal Reserve's quick response would help curb inflation without raising interest rates to unbelievable levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>Will the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate hike boost the recently volatile global markets?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the short term. Unlike governments that implemented tax cuts and increased spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also harm its domestic economy. He also fears that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades could trigger another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from soaring energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. With bond yields likely to rise slightly as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, he said global stock markets have not yet bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>However, looking at 12 months, he expects global stock markets, especially the US stock market, to rise. He said the U.S. stock market has a long lifespan of 30 years, which means the market valuation should be U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds. He stated, \"Rising inflation in the short term, coupled with sanctions, will severely damage demand, at which point declining bond yields will boost U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! Will the Federal Reserve's decision next week reverse risk sentiment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! Will the Federal Reserve's decision next week reverse risk sentiment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will see the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off a rate hike. \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side,\" said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower. \"We'll see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to be finalized, but shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated that he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand, and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear forecast for expected policy action.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 7.9% in February, a 40-year high and slightly higher than the expected 7.8% for this year. The CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong, high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control. That's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Federal Reserve to make “good progress” on its plans to reduce its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize these plans at its meeting on March 15-16.</p><p>'The key is that interest rate expectations have already fluctuated significantly, and this volatility is likely to continue as data comes out, which could exacerbate volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve,' said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of this year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply due to expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, while the rise in longer-term yields has been less dramatic.</p><p>The yield curve itself is considered an important indicator. An inverted curve, especially when the yield on 2-year or shorter US Treasury bonds is higher than the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, has always been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>Some analysts say this has not yet happened, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies could lead to a recession. Others offered a more moderate explanation: the flattening of interest rates reflected market expectations that the Federal Reserve's quick response would help curb inflation without raising interest rates to unbelievable levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>Will the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate hike boost the recently volatile global markets?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the short term. Unlike governments that implemented tax cuts and increased spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also harm its domestic economy. He also fears that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades could trigger another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from soaring energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. With bond yields likely to rise slightly as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, he said global stock markets have not yet bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>However, looking at 12 months, he expects global stock markets, especially the US stock market, to rise. He said the U.S. stock market has a long lifespan of 30 years, which means the market valuation should be U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds. He stated, \"Rising inflation in the short term, coupled with sanctions, will severely damage demand, at which point declining bond yields will boost U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":1,"DXD":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927799234,"gmtCreate":1672584710528,"gmtModify":1676538707528,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927799234","repostId":"1192361274","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052192373,"gmtCreate":1655134034892,"gmtModify":1676535567856,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052192373","repostId":"2243019507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243019507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪海内外最新宏观政策和经济走势，分享来自莫尼塔宏观团队的最新观点。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"钟正生经济分析","id":"70","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b"},"pubTimestamp":1655095529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243019507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 12:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed's shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243019507","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the US CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations and further highlighting the necessity for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. Since the Federal Reserve officially began reducing its balance sheet in June, money market interest rates have remained relatively stable overall, but the combined impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices remains a concern.<b>Core Points</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet starting June 1, with plans to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month, increasing to $95 billion three months later. How does this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet differ from previous ones? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to a lack of effective references, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow.<b>2）</b>To avoid sending different policy signals at the same time as interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule in August 2019, two months ahead of schedule.</p><p><b>The macroeconomic context for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction this time is different, especially regarding inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet is different from previous ones, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank by approximately 15.7% over the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019. According to the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet plan, the Fed's balance sheet will decrease by the same percentage in about 16-17 months (around October 2023).<b>Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may demonstrate greater flexibility during this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>Currently, the US employment situation remains relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its balance sheet reduction pace, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021.<b>on the other hand</b>Considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have a certain degree of substitution. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" for the economy.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure and policy tools have undergone significant changes, especially the reverse repurchase agreement on the liability side and the significant increase in the size and proportion of general deposits of the Treasury Department. This means that shrinking balance sheet may have a relatively low impact on liquidity. First,</b>From the asset side, the proportion of MBS, whose scale changes are subject to significant uncertainty, has decreased, reducing the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Second</b>The significant increase in the size of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates mean that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker buffer against the liquidity shock of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third</b>As U.S. fiscal policy gradually normalizes, the Treasury's general deposits may slowly fall back to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing some liquidity to the market and mitigating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Fourth</b>The introduction of standing repurchase facilities can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be significantly disrupted in the early stages of the shrinking balance sheet, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on asset prices should not be underestimated.</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to over 3% at one point. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from -0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, reflecting the market further factoring in the influence of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the correction in US stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve released a statement from its May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, with a plan to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month and $95 billion per month after three months. This is in line with the discussions in the March meeting minutes, but it did not specify the end of the shrinking balance sheet, only indicating that the pace of shrinking balance sheet would be slowed down when it was close to reaching a \"sufficient level\". How does this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet differ from previous ones? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>A Review of the Last Round of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Normalization</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve introduced a series of unconventional monetary policy tools, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, to cope with the economic recession. As the U.S. economy stabilized and recovered, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and began its shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the previous round of monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve's last round of monetary policy normalization began in May 2013. In a speech, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that \"if the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Fed may begin to gradually slow down its asset purchases at a future meeting,\" sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, financial markets experienced significant volatility, known as a \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced a Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting, which included monthly tapering and ultimately ending QE from January to October 2014. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate hike since the financial crisis, but only scratched the surface after only 25 basis points of rate hike. It did not begin its second rate hike until December 2016, and subsequently raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>The focus should be on shrinking balance sheet operations during the previous round of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy normalization.</b>As the Federal Reserve's rate hike process deepens, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS by $6 billion and $4 billion respectively per month, and increase them by $6 billion and $4 billion every three months over the next 12 months. It wasn't until October 2018, a year later, that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion in Treasury Bond + $20 billion in MBS). This may reflect,<b>Due to a lack of effective references, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Fed preferred to mitigate the impact of liquidity tightening on financial markets through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule in August 2019.</b>At its July 2019 policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet starting in August of that year, a move two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at the time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid interest rate cuts being carried out simultaneously with shrinking balance sheet and sending different policy signals.</b>At its August 2019 policy meeting, in response to low inflation and pressure from slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% reduction in the target federal funds rate. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the target federal funds rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are merely auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when downward pressure on the economy increases and policy interest rates need to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to interest rate cuts.</p><p><b>Second, the money market is beginning to experience a liquidity shortage.</b>Following the global financial crisis, with the launch of three rounds of quantitative easing (QE), the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has shifted from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor System\" to an unconventional \"interest rate Floor System.\" In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the reserve requirement ratio (IOR) is the upper limit of the interest rate, while the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operation rate is the lower limit. When liquidity is ample, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between the two. However, starting in mid-2019, as liquidity continued to shrink, Federal Funds rate began to break through the IOR, which is the upper limit, and \"cash shortage\" events occurred frequently, gradually bringing the \"interest rate floor\" system to the brink of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to significant fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that liquidity in the US money market had begun to run short at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Fed would conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Despite liquidity shortages in the later stages of the previous shrinking balance sheet, the US stock market remained relatively strong throughout the shrinking balance sheet and was not significantly impacted.</b>In the nearly one year since the start of the last shrinking balance sheet, the U.S. stock market has continued its previous upward trend, with the S&P 500 rising 15.2% from early October 2017 to the end of September 2018. Although the stock market experienced a brief correction afterward, it was mainly due to weakening fundamentals, with the US manufacturing PMI beginning to decline significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018. Starting in early 2019, as the Federal Reserve continued to release dovish signals, US stocks began to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet are different.</b></p><p>Looking at the two main aspects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus—growth and employment—compared to the start of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macroeconomic context for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction this time is different, especially regarding inflation.</b>Unlike the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the United States currently has a lower unemployment rate but higher inflation, given that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the US CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, a new high in nearly 40 years. Furthermore, impacted by short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a significant increase in the trade deficit, the US GDP declined by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The backdrop of high inflation determined that the pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet was different this time.</b>After then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Fed did not truly begin Taper until the end of October 2014. More than a year later, the Fed began rate hike, and the time lag between the start of Taper and shrinking balance sheet reached 46 months. Moreover, when the balance sheet reduction began, the US federal benchmark interest rate had already reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in order to cope with the increasing inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet is faster than in the past.</b>Since the Taper signal was released in the second half of 2021, the Federal Reserve's process of normalizing monetary policy has been accelerating. In this round of Federal Reserve monetary policy normalization, the time gap between the initiation of Taper and shrinking balance sheet is only about six months, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting indicated that it will begin its shrinking balance sheet on June 1, planning to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by $95 billion per month. Not only was the initial size and pace of shrinking balance sheet much higher than the previous round ($10 billion per month, increasing by $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet was also higher than the previous round of $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the size and pace of shrinking balance sheet will cause the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate in this round: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet decreased by approximately $700 billion, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet plan, the Fed's balance sheet will decrease by the same percentage in about 16-17 months (around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may demonstrate greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>The employment situation in the United States remains relatively strong, with the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its balance sheet reduction pace, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021.<b>on the other hand</b>Considering the impact of \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the US economy declined by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter year-on-year in the first quarter. Whether these shocks are temporary remains controversial, but concerns about a \"hard landing\" for the U.S. economy are undoubtedly growing in both the market and the Federal Reserve. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are somewhat substitutable, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effects of the combination of measures. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This also aligns with the Federal Reserve's vague statement at its May policy meeting that it would slow the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it was close to reaching a 'sufficient level'.</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure and policy tools differ this time.</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from discussing its balance sheet.</b>From the asset side, the Federal Reserve's assets mainly consist of securities assets, namely various Treasury Bond and MBS purchased during its balance sheet expansion, accounting for nearly 95%. From the liability side, the Federal Reserve's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, Treasury deposits, and reverse repurchase agreements, with these four items accounting for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, Treasury Bond’s share of the Federal Reserve’s total assets rose from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and its current holdings amount to approximately $5.7 trillion. The proportion of MBS in the Federal Reserve's total assets decreased from 39.7% to 30.4%, but its size still exceeded $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared to 2017, the differences on the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are more pronounced, with the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements held by the Treasury Department increasing significantly.</b>When the last round of shrinking balance sheet began in October 2017, the Treasury's general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements among the Federal Reserve's liabilities were $185.1 billion and $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%. This led to the decline in liabilities during the last round of balance sheet reduction being mainly achieved through a decrease in reserves. However, as of now, the scale and proportion of the Ministry of Finance's general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements have both increased significantly. Among them, the scale of the Ministry of Finance's general deposits has reached US$957.4 billion, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached US$2.09 trillion, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two has approached the scale of reserves.</p><p><b>Given the significant changes in the Federal Reserve's current balance sheet structure and policy tools, the impact of shrinking balance sheet on liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>First,</b>，<b>From the asset side, the decrease in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty during balance sheet reduction.</b>For Treasury Bond, since its expiration date and scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond' share reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainty surrounding MBS's share reduction process. This mainly stems from: 1) MBS has the possibility of early repayment, allowing borrowers to choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when selling their home or refinancing their mortgage; 2) From an operational perspective, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long. The time interval between receiving the principal (resulting in a decrease in holdings) and the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) can be as long as three months. During the last round of balance sheet reduction, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the scale of its reduction was relatively higher, reaching two-thirds of the scale of Treasury Bond' reduction. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Fed's maximum reduction in holdings was $60 billion per month in Treasury Bond and $35 billion in MBS. MBS accounted for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that the uncertainty of this round of shrinking balance sheet is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Secondly, from the liability side, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that there is ample liquidity in the market, which can mitigate the liquidity shock brought about by shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool functions similarly to the People's Bank of my country's reverse repurchase tool. Both aim to recover excess liquidity in the market by selling securities to financial institutions and agreeing to repurchase them after a certain period of time. Therefore, during periods of excess liquidity and low market interest rates, non-bank financial institutions choose to invest funds in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreements in order to obtain stable returns. The reverse repurchase agreement rate thus becomes the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor under the sufficient reserve system, and the amount of reverse repurchase tools used also reflects the ample level of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements currently much higher than at the start of the last shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, holding reserves involves costs. As banks increase their reserves, their overall balance sheet size will also expand, leading to higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Secondly</b>Banks earn from holding reserves through arbitrage transactions, which involve borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repurchase rate (between the ON RRP rate and the reserve requirement rate) and depositing these funds with the Federal Reserve to earn interest calculated at the reserve requirement rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the return ON arbitrage trading. Before and after the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this interest rate spread remained at 25 basis points, while it is currently only 10 basis points. This has undoubtedly reduced banks' arbitrage returns, thereby limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. As a result, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, which can only directly deposit this portion of funds with the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also indicates that liquidity is now more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve interest rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates, respectively, representing the distance between the upper and lower limits of short-term interest rates. It can be seen that before and after the start of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, indicating that short-term interest rates were closer to the upper limit at that time; Currently, the difference between the EFFR and ON RRP rates is smaller, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit, reflecting that liquidity is now more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was mostly bank reserves. However, the current surge in the size of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that the liquidity of both banks and non-bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Federal Reserve withdraws liquidity through shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; On the liability side, a corresponding reduction can be achieved by reducing the size of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than reducing the size of reserves as in the previous round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the Ministry of Finance's general deposits will also release some liquidity.</b>。 The high growth in the Ministry of Finance's general deposits is another important feature of this balance sheet reduction. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in the U.S. Treasury's general deposits can also disrupt market liquidity. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the size of the Treasury's general deposits (TGA) on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet fluctuated to some extent, the total size remained basically below $400 billion. After the outbreak of the pandemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of funds through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, reaching a record high of nearly $1.8 trillion at one point. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the size of the TGA declined rapidly. In 2021, the U.S. government debt reached its ceiling, making it difficult for the Treasury Department to continue financing through bond issuance. The TGA account balance continued to decline, once falling to less than $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity into the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond, and by the end of April, the size of the TGA account had exceeded $900 billion.<b>Looking ahead, US fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the Treasury's general deposits may slowly fall back to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release some liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity shock brought about by shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the introduction of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Starting in mid-2019, signs of a liquidity shortage emerged in the US financial markets, with spot interest rates continuously breaking through the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, influenced by factors such as tax payments and Treasury Bond issuance, the EFFR was once 20 basis points higher than the reserve requirement rate. In March 2020, the US financial markets experienced another \"cash crunch,\" with the three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future borrowing costs, rising to its highest level since 2008, and the New York Federal Reserve's repurchase operations being continuously oversubscribed. The frequent liquidity shortages have drawn the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to address the liquidity shortages that may arise during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve \"planned ahead\" and launched the SRF tool. This tool allows qualified traders to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve at a certain interest rate (usually set at the ceiling of the federal funds target rate) using Treasury Bond, ABS, or MBS as collateral.</p><p><b>SRF tools mainly work through two channels: First,</b>As mentioned earlier, the interest rate on reserves (IOR) only acts as a cap on interest rates when liquidity is ample. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the upper limit of interest rates. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations before the SRF tool was launched in September 2019.<b>Second</b>The introduction of the SRF tool has enhanced market confidence in short-term interest rate stability, thereby reducing the possibility of significant fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can ensure that the spot rate operates within the target range of the federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF tools is also an important window for observing the liquidity situation in financial markets.</b>When financial market liquidity can meet actual needs, financial institutions can raise funds smoothly through the market, and the use of SRF tools should be relatively low. When financial markets experience a liquidity shortage, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>In general, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that began in 2017, the increased inflationary pressures may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet this time. However, the uncertainty of the inflation trend and the risk of a \"hard landing\" for the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the effects of the \"combination punch\" between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. The more important difference is that, judging from the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the liquidity in the US financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the Treasury's general deposit scale and the early launch of the SRF tool, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on market liquidity this time may not be as great as in the past.</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the window of opportunity for the shrinking balance sheet to end may lie between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in its past balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance, implying that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are merely auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the Federal Reserve's current round of rate hike may end in mid-2023. If downward pressure on the US economy increases later, the Federal Reserve will stop tightening and may even turn to easing again. At that time, in order to avoid sending different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rates in monetary policy, shrinking balance sheet will most likely also \"back down\".</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be significantly disrupted in the early stages of a shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still experience huge fluctuations.</b>Since the Federal Reserve announced the impending start of a shrinking balance sheet at its interest rate meeting in early May, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to over 3% at one point. In particular, the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped from 0.07% on May 4 to 0.34% on May 10 (while the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds was only -0.90% on March 1), reflecting the market's further factoring in the impact of shrinking balance sheet. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Fluctuations above 103 caused a sharp drop in the exchange rates of most non-US currencies. US stocks also saw a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key level of 4,000. Therefore,<b>In terms of its impact on asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet should not be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b>International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, US inflationary pressures are exceeding expectations, downward pressure on the US economy is exceeding expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening is exceeding expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/70\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">钟正生经济分析 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-13 12:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the US CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations and further highlighting the necessity for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. Since the Federal Reserve officially began reducing its balance sheet in June, money market interest rates have remained relatively stable overall, but the combined impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices remains a concern.<b>Core Points</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet starting June 1, with plans to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month, increasing to $95 billion three months later. How does this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet differ from previous ones? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to a lack of effective references, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow.<b>2）</b>To avoid sending different policy signals at the same time as interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule in August 2019, two months ahead of schedule.</p><p><b>The macroeconomic context for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction this time is different, especially regarding inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet is different from previous ones, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank by approximately 15.7% over the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019. According to the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet plan, the Fed's balance sheet will decrease by the same percentage in about 16-17 months (around October 2023).<b>Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may demonstrate greater flexibility during this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>Currently, the US employment situation remains relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its balance sheet reduction pace, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021.<b>on the other hand</b>Considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have a certain degree of substitution. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" for the economy.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure and policy tools have undergone significant changes, especially the reverse repurchase agreement on the liability side and the significant increase in the size and proportion of general deposits of the Treasury Department. This means that shrinking balance sheet may have a relatively low impact on liquidity. First,</b>From the asset side, the proportion of MBS, whose scale changes are subject to significant uncertainty, has decreased, reducing the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Second</b>The significant increase in the size of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates mean that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker buffer against the liquidity shock of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third</b>As U.S. fiscal policy gradually normalizes, the Treasury's general deposits may slowly fall back to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing some liquidity to the market and mitigating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Fourth</b>The introduction of standing repurchase facilities can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be significantly disrupted in the early stages of the shrinking balance sheet, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on asset prices should not be underestimated.</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to over 3% at one point. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from -0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, reflecting the market further factoring in the influence of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the correction in US stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve released a statement from its May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, with a plan to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month and $95 billion per month after three months. This is in line with the discussions in the March meeting minutes, but it did not specify the end of the shrinking balance sheet, only indicating that the pace of shrinking balance sheet would be slowed down when it was close to reaching a \"sufficient level\". How does this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet differ from previous ones? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>A Review of the Last Round of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Normalization</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve introduced a series of unconventional monetary policy tools, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, to cope with the economic recession. As the U.S. economy stabilized and recovered, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and began its shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the previous round of monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve's last round of monetary policy normalization began in May 2013. In a speech, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that \"if the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Fed may begin to gradually slow down its asset purchases at a future meeting,\" sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, financial markets experienced significant volatility, known as a \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced a Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting, which included monthly tapering and ultimately ending QE from January to October 2014. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate hike since the financial crisis, but only scratched the surface after only 25 basis points of rate hike. It did not begin its second rate hike until December 2016, and subsequently raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>The focus should be on shrinking balance sheet operations during the previous round of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy normalization.</b>As the Federal Reserve's rate hike process deepens, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS by $6 billion and $4 billion respectively per month, and increase them by $6 billion and $4 billion every three months over the next 12 months. It wasn't until October 2018, a year later, that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion in Treasury Bond + $20 billion in MBS). This may reflect,<b>Due to a lack of effective references, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Fed preferred to mitigate the impact of liquidity tightening on financial markets through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule in August 2019.</b>At its July 2019 policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet starting in August of that year, a move two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at the time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid interest rate cuts being carried out simultaneously with shrinking balance sheet and sending different policy signals.</b>At its August 2019 policy meeting, in response to low inflation and pressure from slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% reduction in the target federal funds rate. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the target federal funds rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are merely auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when downward pressure on the economy increases and policy interest rates need to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to interest rate cuts.</p><p><b>Second, the money market is beginning to experience a liquidity shortage.</b>Following the global financial crisis, with the launch of three rounds of quantitative easing (QE), the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has shifted from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor System\" to an unconventional \"interest rate Floor System.\" In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the reserve requirement ratio (IOR) is the upper limit of the interest rate, while the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operation rate is the lower limit. When liquidity is ample, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between the two. However, starting in mid-2019, as liquidity continued to shrink, Federal Funds rate began to break through the IOR, which is the upper limit, and \"cash shortage\" events occurred frequently, gradually bringing the \"interest rate floor\" system to the brink of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to significant fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that liquidity in the US money market had begun to run short at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Fed would conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Despite liquidity shortages in the later stages of the previous shrinking balance sheet, the US stock market remained relatively strong throughout the shrinking balance sheet and was not significantly impacted.</b>In the nearly one year since the start of the last shrinking balance sheet, the U.S. stock market has continued its previous upward trend, with the S&P 500 rising 15.2% from early October 2017 to the end of September 2018. Although the stock market experienced a brief correction afterward, it was mainly due to weakening fundamentals, with the US manufacturing PMI beginning to decline significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018. Starting in early 2019, as the Federal Reserve continued to release dovish signals, US stocks began to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet are different.</b></p><p>Looking at the two main aspects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus—growth and employment—compared to the start of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macroeconomic context for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction this time is different, especially regarding inflation.</b>Unlike the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the United States currently has a lower unemployment rate but higher inflation, given that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the US CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, a new high in nearly 40 years. Furthermore, impacted by short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a significant increase in the trade deficit, the US GDP declined by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The backdrop of high inflation determined that the pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet was different this time.</b>After then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Fed did not truly begin Taper until the end of October 2014. More than a year later, the Fed began rate hike, and the time lag between the start of Taper and shrinking balance sheet reached 46 months. Moreover, when the balance sheet reduction began, the US federal benchmark interest rate had already reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in order to cope with the increasing inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet is faster than in the past.</b>Since the Taper signal was released in the second half of 2021, the Federal Reserve's process of normalizing monetary policy has been accelerating. In this round of Federal Reserve monetary policy normalization, the time gap between the initiation of Taper and shrinking balance sheet is only about six months, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting indicated that it will begin its shrinking balance sheet on June 1, planning to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by $95 billion per month. Not only was the initial size and pace of shrinking balance sheet much higher than the previous round ($10 billion per month, increasing by $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet was also higher than the previous round of $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the size and pace of shrinking balance sheet will cause the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate in this round: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet decreased by approximately $700 billion, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet plan, the Fed's balance sheet will decrease by the same percentage in about 16-17 months (around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may demonstrate greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>The employment situation in the United States remains relatively strong, with the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its balance sheet reduction pace, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021.<b>on the other hand</b>Considering the impact of \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the US economy declined by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter year-on-year in the first quarter. Whether these shocks are temporary remains controversial, but concerns about a \"hard landing\" for the U.S. economy are undoubtedly growing in both the market and the Federal Reserve. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are somewhat substitutable, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effects of the combination of measures. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This also aligns with the Federal Reserve's vague statement at its May policy meeting that it would slow the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it was close to reaching a 'sufficient level'.</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure and policy tools differ this time.</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from discussing its balance sheet.</b>From the asset side, the Federal Reserve's assets mainly consist of securities assets, namely various Treasury Bond and MBS purchased during its balance sheet expansion, accounting for nearly 95%. From the liability side, the Federal Reserve's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, Treasury deposits, and reverse repurchase agreements, with these four items accounting for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, Treasury Bond’s share of the Federal Reserve’s total assets rose from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and its current holdings amount to approximately $5.7 trillion. The proportion of MBS in the Federal Reserve's total assets decreased from 39.7% to 30.4%, but its size still exceeded $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared to 2017, the differences on the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are more pronounced, with the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements held by the Treasury Department increasing significantly.</b>When the last round of shrinking balance sheet began in October 2017, the Treasury's general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements among the Federal Reserve's liabilities were $185.1 billion and $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%. This led to the decline in liabilities during the last round of balance sheet reduction being mainly achieved through a decrease in reserves. However, as of now, the scale and proportion of the Ministry of Finance's general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements have both increased significantly. Among them, the scale of the Ministry of Finance's general deposits has reached US$957.4 billion, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached US$2.09 trillion, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two has approached the scale of reserves.</p><p><b>Given the significant changes in the Federal Reserve's current balance sheet structure and policy tools, the impact of shrinking balance sheet on liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>First,</b>，<b>From the asset side, the decrease in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty during balance sheet reduction.</b>For Treasury Bond, since its expiration date and scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond' share reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainty surrounding MBS's share reduction process. This mainly stems from: 1) MBS has the possibility of early repayment, allowing borrowers to choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when selling their home or refinancing their mortgage; 2) From an operational perspective, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long. The time interval between receiving the principal (resulting in a decrease in holdings) and the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) can be as long as three months. During the last round of balance sheet reduction, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the scale of its reduction was relatively higher, reaching two-thirds of the scale of Treasury Bond' reduction. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Fed's maximum reduction in holdings was $60 billion per month in Treasury Bond and $35 billion in MBS. MBS accounted for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that the uncertainty of this round of shrinking balance sheet is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Secondly, from the liability side, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that there is ample liquidity in the market, which can mitigate the liquidity shock brought about by shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool functions similarly to the People's Bank of my country's reverse repurchase tool. Both aim to recover excess liquidity in the market by selling securities to financial institutions and agreeing to repurchase them after a certain period of time. Therefore, during periods of excess liquidity and low market interest rates, non-bank financial institutions choose to invest funds in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreements in order to obtain stable returns. The reverse repurchase agreement rate thus becomes the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor under the sufficient reserve system, and the amount of reverse repurchase tools used also reflects the ample level of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements currently much higher than at the start of the last shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, holding reserves involves costs. As banks increase their reserves, their overall balance sheet size will also expand, leading to higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Secondly</b>Banks earn from holding reserves through arbitrage transactions, which involve borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repurchase rate (between the ON RRP rate and the reserve requirement rate) and depositing these funds with the Federal Reserve to earn interest calculated at the reserve requirement rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the return ON arbitrage trading. Before and after the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this interest rate spread remained at 25 basis points, while it is currently only 10 basis points. This has undoubtedly reduced banks' arbitrage returns, thereby limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. As a result, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, which can only directly deposit this portion of funds with the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also indicates that liquidity is now more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve interest rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates, respectively, representing the distance between the upper and lower limits of short-term interest rates. It can be seen that before and after the start of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, indicating that short-term interest rates were closer to the upper limit at that time; Currently, the difference between the EFFR and ON RRP rates is smaller, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit, reflecting that liquidity is now more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was mostly bank reserves. However, the current surge in the size of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that the liquidity of both banks and non-bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Federal Reserve withdraws liquidity through shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; On the liability side, a corresponding reduction can be achieved by reducing the size of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than reducing the size of reserves as in the previous round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the Ministry of Finance's general deposits will also release some liquidity.</b>。 The high growth in the Ministry of Finance's general deposits is another important feature of this balance sheet reduction. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in the U.S. Treasury's general deposits can also disrupt market liquidity. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the size of the Treasury's general deposits (TGA) on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet fluctuated to some extent, the total size remained basically below $400 billion. After the outbreak of the pandemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of funds through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, reaching a record high of nearly $1.8 trillion at one point. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the size of the TGA declined rapidly. In 2021, the U.S. government debt reached its ceiling, making it difficult for the Treasury Department to continue financing through bond issuance. The TGA account balance continued to decline, once falling to less than $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity into the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond, and by the end of April, the size of the TGA account had exceeded $900 billion.<b>Looking ahead, US fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the Treasury's general deposits may slowly fall back to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release some liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity shock brought about by shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the introduction of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Starting in mid-2019, signs of a liquidity shortage emerged in the US financial markets, with spot interest rates continuously breaking through the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, influenced by factors such as tax payments and Treasury Bond issuance, the EFFR was once 20 basis points higher than the reserve requirement rate. In March 2020, the US financial markets experienced another \"cash crunch,\" with the three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future borrowing costs, rising to its highest level since 2008, and the New York Federal Reserve's repurchase operations being continuously oversubscribed. The frequent liquidity shortages have drawn the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to address the liquidity shortages that may arise during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve \"planned ahead\" and launched the SRF tool. This tool allows qualified traders to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve at a certain interest rate (usually set at the ceiling of the federal funds target rate) using Treasury Bond, ABS, or MBS as collateral.</p><p><b>SRF tools mainly work through two channels: First,</b>As mentioned earlier, the interest rate on reserves (IOR) only acts as a cap on interest rates when liquidity is ample. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the upper limit of interest rates. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations before the SRF tool was launched in September 2019.<b>Second</b>The introduction of the SRF tool has enhanced market confidence in short-term interest rate stability, thereby reducing the possibility of significant fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can ensure that the spot rate operates within the target range of the federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF tools is also an important window for observing the liquidity situation in financial markets.</b>When financial market liquidity can meet actual needs, financial institutions can raise funds smoothly through the market, and the use of SRF tools should be relatively low. When financial markets experience a liquidity shortage, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>In general, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that began in 2017, the increased inflationary pressures may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet this time. However, the uncertainty of the inflation trend and the risk of a \"hard landing\" for the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the effects of the \"combination punch\" between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. The more important difference is that, judging from the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the liquidity in the US financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the Treasury's general deposit scale and the early launch of the SRF tool, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on market liquidity this time may not be as great as in the past.</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the window of opportunity for the shrinking balance sheet to end may lie between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in its past balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance, implying that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are merely auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the Federal Reserve's current round of rate hike may end in mid-2023. If downward pressure on the US economy increases later, the Federal Reserve will stop tightening and may even turn to easing again. At that time, in order to avoid sending different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rates in monetary policy, shrinking balance sheet will most likely also \"back down\".</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be significantly disrupted in the early stages of a shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still experience huge fluctuations.</b>Since the Federal Reserve announced the impending start of a shrinking balance sheet at its interest rate meeting in early May, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to over 3% at one point. In particular, the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped from 0.07% on May 4 to 0.34% on May 10 (while the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds was only -0.90% on March 1), reflecting the market's further factoring in the impact of shrinking balance sheet. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Fluctuations above 103 caused a sharp drop in the exchange rates of most non-US currencies. US stocks also saw a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key level of 4,000. Therefore,<b>In terms of its impact on asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet should not be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b>International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, US inflationary pressures are exceeding expectations, downward pressure on the US economy is exceeding expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening is exceeding expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243019507","content_text":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得警惕。核心观点2022年5月4日，美联储宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后增加到950亿美元。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。回顾上一轮美联储的缩表过程，可以发现：1）由于缺乏有效的参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，美联储并不急于大规模缩减其资产负债表，从引导紧缩到缩表步伐都相对缓慢；2）为了避免降息与缩表同时进行发出不同的政策信号，并缓解金融市场流动性短缺的情况，美联储于2019年8月提前停止了缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年相比，目前美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。这决定了本次美联储缩表的目的与以往不同，且节奏相对更快。我们估算，2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将表现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍较为强劲，若通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到加息与缩表具有一定替代性。若美国通胀压力有所缓和，为了避免经济“硬着陆”，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐。目前美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具出现了较大变化，尤其是负债端逆回购协议、财政部一般存款的规模和占比明显提升，这使得缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。一是，从资产端来看，规模变化存在较大不确定性的MBS占比下降，使得缩表的不确定性降低。二是，逆回购协议规模大幅上升、短端利率更接近利率下限，意味着市场流动性比上一轮缩表开始前更为充裕，为缩表的流动性冲击提供了更厚的缓冲垫。三是，随着美国财政政策逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的影响。四是，常备回购便利工具的推出可以在一定条件下提供流动性，并稳定市场信心，降低流动性短缺发生的概率。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。自5月美联储议息会议来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其实际利率从3月1日的-0.90%回归至5月10日的0.34%，即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。美债利率的攀升成为美股调整的重要催化。2022年5月4日，美联储公布5月FOMC议息会议声明，宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。这符合3月会议纪要讨论结果，但并未明确缩表终点，只表示将在快达到“充足水平”时减缓缩表节奏。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。一上一轮美联储货币政策正常化回顾2008年全球金融危机爆发后，为应对经济衰退，美联储推出了零利率、量化宽松等一系列非常规货币政策工具。而随着美国经济趋于稳定复苏，美联储于2013年末正式启动Taper，并在2017年10月开启缩表。而这也是美联储实施非常规货币政策以来唯一的一次缩表操作。因此，有必要对上一轮美联储货币政策正常化进行一定的回顾。美联储上一轮货币政策的正常化始于2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克在一次演讲中表示“如果发现美国就业市场持续好转，美联储可能在今后的某一次会议中开始逐步放慢购买资产的速度”，向市场传递了Taper信号。但由于与市场沟通并不充分，金融市场出现了显著波动，即“缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）”。2013年12月，美联储议息会议宣布Taper时间表，2014年1-10月逐月削减并最终结束QE。2015年12月，美联储开启了金融危机后的首次加息，但在仅加息25BP后就“浅尝辄止”,直至2016年12月才开始第二次加息，并在此后连续上调政策利率。重点观察上一轮美联储货币政策正常化中的缩表操作。随着美联储加息进程的深入，缩表也被提上日程。2017年10月开始，美联储决定以每月60亿美元、40亿美元的速度缩减其持有的国债、MBS，并在之后的12个月内按照每三个月增加60亿美元、40亿美元的速度递增。直到一年后的2018年10月，美联储缩表速度才达到每月500亿美元（300亿美元国债+200亿美元MBS）的峰值。这或许反映出，由于缺乏有效参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，当时的美联储更希望通过缓慢的、渐进式的缩表，减轻流动性收紧对金融市场的冲击。不过，2019年8月美联储提前停止了缩表。2019年7月议息会议上，美联储宣布将从当年8月起停止缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。我们认为，当时美联储停止缩表，主要有两方面原因： 一是，为了避免降息与缩表同时进行、发出不同政策信号。2019年8月议息会议上，为了应对低迷的通胀以及全球增长放缓的压力，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%。正如美联储反复指出的，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段。言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。因此，当经济下行压力加大，政策利率需要下调时，缩表要“让位”于降息。二是，货币市场开始出现流动性紧缺的情况。全球金融危机后伴随三轮QE的推出，美联储的利率调控机制已经从危机前的“利率走廊”体系（Corridor System）转变为非常规的“利率地板”体系（Floor System）。在“利率地板”体系中，存款准备金利率（IOR）作为利率上限，隔夜逆回购协议（ONRRP）操作利率则为利率下限，在流动性充裕时，联邦基金利率（EFFR）将在二者之间运行。但自2019年中开始，随着流动性的不断缩减，联邦基金利率开始突破作为上限的IOR，“钱荒”事件频发，“利率地板”体系逐渐走向失效边缘。2019年7月美联储议息会议纪要中特别提到，缩表带来的准备金减少导致短端利率大幅波动，也表明当时美国货币市场流动性已开始出现短缺。而在2019年10月美联储的声明中表示，为确保准备金充足，美联储将进行定期回购操作，以向市场注入流动性，降低货币市场风险。虽然上一轮缩表后期出现流动性紧缺，但整个缩表期间美国股市表现仍然较为强劲，并未受到明显冲击。上一轮缩表开始后的近一年时间里，美国股市延续了之前的上涨趋势，2017年10月初至2018年9月末，标普500指数涨幅达到15.2%。虽然之后股市出现短暂回调，但主要是由基本面的转弱所致，美国制造业PMI自2018年四季度开始明显回落。2019年初开始，随着美联储不断释放“鸽派”信号，美股也开始反弹。二本次美联储缩表的背景与目的不同从美联储货币政策关注的两大方面——增长与就业来看，与2017年10月开启缩表相比，本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年初的低通胀、低失业率不同，目前在劳动参与率尚未完全恢复的背景下，美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。2022年3月美国CPI同比达到8.5%，创下近40年来新高。并且，在补库存需求下滑、贸易逆差大幅增长等短期因素冲击下，2022年一季度美国GDP环比折年率下滑1.4%，经济开始出现滞胀迹象。高通胀的背景决定了本次美联储缩表的节奏不同。2013年5月时任美联储主席伯南克释放Taper信号后，2013年末美联储才真正开启Taper，直到2014年10月Taper才结束，此后又过了一年多的时间美联储才开始加息，从开始Taper到缩表之间的时滞更是达到了46个月，且开始缩表时的美国联邦基准利率已经达到1.25%-1.50%。但是，为了应对不断加剧的通胀压力，本轮美联储缩表的节奏要快于以往。从2021年下半年释放Taper信号开始，美联储的货币政策正常化进程便不断加速。本轮美联储货币政策正常化中，从开启Taper到缩表之间的时间间隔仅有半年左右，紧缩节奏较之前大大加快。美联储5月议息会议纪要表示将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。不仅初始缩表规模、节奏远高于上一轮（100亿美元/月，每三个月增加100亿美元），每月最大缩表规模亦高于上一轮的每月500亿美元。缩表规模与节奏的变化将使得本轮美联储资产负债表将以更快的比例下降：2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约7000亿美元，降幅15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将呈现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍然较为强劲，失业率、领取失业金人数等均处于历史较低位置。因此，若美国通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月其加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到美国经济在库存投资回落、进口大增等“暂时性因素”的影响下，一季度环比折年率下滑1.4%。不管对于这些是否属于暂时性冲击仍存争议，但市场和美联储对美国经济“硬着陆”的担忧无疑都是在增加的。况且，加息与缩表具有一定替代性，美联储亦会细加权衡组合拳的效应。因此，若后续美国通胀压力有所缓和，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐，以减小货币政策紧缩对经济的冲击。这也符合美联储5月议息会议上“将在快达到‘充足水平’时减缓缩表节奏”的模糊表述。三本次美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具不同研究美联储的缩表操作离不开对其资产负债表的讨论。从资产端来看，美联储的资产主要是持有的证券资产，即其在扩表时购买的各类国债、MBS等，占比接近95%；从负债端来看，美联储的负债包括现金、银行准备金、财政部存款以及逆回购协议，以上四项占比超过99%，尤其是银行准备金，占比超过40%。从资产端来看，与2017年10月相比，美联储持有的国债占比明显提升，而MBS占比相对较低。其中，国债在美联储总资产中的占比由2017年10月的55.3%上升至4月末的64.5%，目前持有规模约5.7万亿美元。而MBS在美联储总资产中的占比则由39.7%下降至30.4%，但规模也超过了2.7万亿美元。与2017年相比，当前美联储资产负债表负债端的差异更为明显，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比明显提升。2017年10月上一轮缩表开始时，美联储负债中的财政部一般存款、逆回购协议规模分别为1851亿美元、3749亿美元，占总负债的比重为4.2%、7.9%，而银行准备金占比超过50%，这也导致上一轮缩表时负债端的下降主要通过准备金规模下降实现的。但截至目前，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比均有明显提升，其中财政部一般存款规模达到9574亿美元，占比10.8%，逆回购协议规模更是达到2.09万亿美元，占比23.5%，二者之和已经接近准备金规模。由于美联储目前资产负债表结构以及政策工具均出现了较大变化，缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。 一是，从资产端来看，MBS占比下降使得缩表时的不确定性降低。对于国债来说，由于其到期日、到期规模可知，因而国债的减持步调基本是确定的。但是，MBS的减持过程可能存在一定不确定在。这主要来源于：1） MBS存在提前偿付的可能性，借款人在出售房屋或为抵押贷款再融资时，可以选择随时偿还任何额外的抵押贷款本金；2）从操作流程上看，MBS再投资的时间间隔较长，从收到本金（导致持有量减少）到相应的新 MBS 被添加到资产负债表（导致持有量增加）之间的时间间隔最长可达三个月 。在上一轮缩表时，MBS的占比较高，减持规模相对更高，达到了国债减持规模的2/3。但今年5月美联储议息会议显示，本轮缩表中美联储减持规模最多为每月600亿美元国债、350亿美元MBS，MBS在减持中的占比更低，这意味着本轮缩表的不确定性相对更低。二是，从负债端看，逆回购协议规模上升意味着市场上的流动性较为充裕，可以缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。美联储的逆回购工具与我国央行正回购的功能类似，都是通过向金融机构出售证券，并约定在一段时间后回购，来达到回收市场上多余流动性的目的。因此，在流动性过剩、市场利率较低的时期，非银金融机构为了获取稳定的收益，会选择将资金投向美联储的逆回购协议，逆回购协议利率由此成为充足准备金制度下，美联储利率走廊的下限，逆回购工具的使用量也在一定程度上反映了市场流动性的充裕程度。为何目前逆回购协议的占比均远高于上一轮缩表开始时？首先，对于银行来说，持有准备金是存在成本的。银行持有的准备金规模增加后，其整体资产负债表规模也将扩大，进而带来更高的资本监管要求，因此银行持有准备金的意愿并不会无限增长。其次，银行持有准备金的收益来自于套利交易，即按照市场回购利率（介于ON RRP 利率与存款准备金利率之间）从非银金融机构借入资金，并将这部分资金存入美联储，获得按存款准备金利率计算的利息。因此，存款准备金利率和ON RRP利率之间的价差衡量了套利交易的收益。上一轮缩表开始前后，这一利差保持在25BP，而目前仅为10BP，这无疑使得银行的套利收益下降，进而限制了其从非银金融机构借入资金的意愿。因而，大量的流动性淤积在非银金融机构中，非银金融机构只能直接将这部分资金存入美联储，导致目前逆回购协议的占比明显提升。目前联邦基金利率（EFFR）的相对位置同样表明，目前流动性较上轮缩表开始时更为充裕。如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）分别是联邦基金利率的上限和下限。我们分别计算了IOR与EFFR之差和EFFR与ON RRP利率之差，代表短期利率距离利率上限与下限的距离。可以发现，在上一轮美联储缩表开始前后，IOR与EFFR之间的差值更小，代表当时短端利率距离上限更为接近；而在目前，EFFR与ON RRP 利率的差值更小，短端利率距离下限更为接近，反映出的即是目前的流动性较上轮缩表开始时更加充裕。上一轮缩表开始时，美联储资产负债表负债端多为银行准备金，但目前逆回购协议规模的大增、以及联邦基金利率（EFFR）更接近利率下限，均表明无论是银行还是非银金融机构的流动性，均较上一轮缩表开始时更为充裕。因此，当美联储通过缩表回收流动性时，其资产负债表资产端持有的债券规模下降；而对于负债端来说，可通过逆回购协议规模的下降（而非像上一轮缩表一样，通过准备金规模的下降），实现相应的缩减，进而降低缩表对于准备金及市场流动性的冲击。三是，财政部一般存款规模的下降也将释放一定流动性。财政部一般存款规模的高增也是本次缩表时的另一项重要特点。与我国财政存款的作用类似，美国财政部一般存款的变动也会对市场流动性形成扰动。新冠疫情爆发前，美联储资产负债表中财政部一般存款（TGA）规模虽然有一定波动，但总规模基本保持在4000亿美元以下；疫情爆发后，美国财政部通过发行国债大量融资，TGA规模迅速上升，一度达到近1.8万亿美元的天量。2021年一季度，随着1.9万亿美元纾困法案的推出，TGA规模迅速下降。2021年中美国政府债务触及上限，财政部难以继续通过发债融资，TGA账户余额不断下降，一度降至不到600亿美元，在此过程中向市场释放了大量流动性。但2021年12月美国政府债务上限再次调升后，财政部通过发行国债迅速重建了其现金储备，4月末TGA账户规模已超过9000亿美元。往后看，美国财政政策也将逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而会向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。四是，常备回购便利（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）工具的推出也降低了流动性短缺发生的概率。2019年中开始，美国金融市场流动性便出现短缺迹象，即期利率不断突破联邦基金目标利率上限。2019年9月，在缴税及国债发行等因素的影响下，EFFR一度高于存款准备金利率20BP；2020年3月美国金融市场再度爆发“钱荒”，代表未来资金借贷成本的3个月FRA/OIS利差一度升至2008年以来高点，纽约联储回购操作连续遭超额认购。频繁发生的流动性短缺状况引发了美联储的关注：2021年7月，为了解决货币政策正常化过程中可能出现的流动性短缺问题，美联储“未雨绸缪”的推出了SRF工具。该工具允许合格交易商以国债、ABS或MBS为抵押品，以一定利率（通常被设定为联邦基金目标利率的上限）从美联储借入美元。SRF工具主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：一是，如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）只有在流动性充裕的情况下才会发挥利率上限的作用。当流动性开始紧张时，部分金融机构愿意以高于IOR的水平从市场借入资金，导致短端利率突破作为利率上限的IOR。SRF工具的功能简单来说便是，以一定的利率向市场释放流动性，进而降低利率的上行压力，正如2019年9月SRF工具尚未推出时，美联储通过回购操作压低短期利率一样。二是，SRF工具的推出增强了市场对于短期利率稳定的信心，进而降低了市场利率大幅波动的可能性。因此，该工具可以保证即期利率运行在联邦基金目标利率范围内。另外，SRF工具的使用量也是观察金融市场流动性状况的重要窗口：在金融市场流动性可以满足实际需求时，金融机构可通过市场顺利融资，SRF工具使用量应相对较低；而当金融市场流动性出现短缺时，金融机构会转而向美联储寻求流动性支持，SRF工具使用量也会相应上升。四小结总的来说，与2017年开启的缩表相比，通胀压力的加剧导致本次美联储缩表的节奏可能更快，但通胀走势的不确定性、以及美国经济“硬着陆”的风险，也使得美联储后续缩表的灵活性更强。与此同时，美联储也需细加权衡相机观察加息与缩表“组合拳”的效应。更重要的区别在于，从逆回购协议规模来看，目前美国金融市场的流动性已过度充裕，叠加后续财政部一般存款规模可能下降以及SRF工具的提前推出，本次美联储缩表对市场流动性的冲击或不及以往。 往后看，缩表结束的时间窗口或许在美联储本轮加息结束到下次降息之间。美联储在以往的资产负债表操作中曾多次声明，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段，言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。根据CME FedWatch Tool显示的数据，美联储本轮加息或将于2023年中结束。一旦之后美国经济下行压力加大，美联储将不再紧缩甚至再次转向宽松。届时，为了避免缩表与降息发出不同的政策信号，为了保持利率手段在货币政策中的主要地位，届时缩表大概率亦将“偃旗息鼓”。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但资产价格仍然可能出现巨大波动。自5月初美联储议息会议宣布即将开启缩表以来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其是10年期美债实际利率从5月4日的0.07%蹿升至5月10日的0.34%（而3月1日10年期美债实际利率仅为-0.90%），即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。同期，美元指数在103以上高位震荡，导致多数非美货币汇率急跌。美股也出现了明显回调，标普500指数一度跌至4000这一关键点位之下。因此，从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。风险提示：国际地缘冲突具有不确定性，美国通胀压力超预期，美国经济下行压力超预期，美联储政策紧缩力度超预期等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022783957,"gmtCreate":1653579922979,"gmtModify":1676535308313,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022783957","repostId":"1137501377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092077416,"gmtCreate":1644502697229,"gmtModify":1676533934134,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092077416","repostId":"2210980598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210980598","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644495276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210980598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 20:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is this really different? How to understand the Federal Reserve's new \"adaptive\" framework","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210980598","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>In 2022, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will accelerate its shift towards \"data dependence,\" but the problem is that data is too unpredictable in the new rate hike cycle.</b>In its January FOMC statement, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it would \"soon\" be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that rate hike in March were imminent. However, regarding the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized it during the Q&A session of the press conference.<b>Officials did not make any decisions and said the FOMC needed to remain flexible (\"nimble\") and did not rule out any options.</b></p><p>Powell stated, \"We will make a decision based on the data to be released and the evolving outlook.\"</p><p><b>This statement created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market:</b>How many times will the Federal Reserve rate hike this year? Will the previous meetings significantly rate hike by 50 basis points? The timing of shrinking balance sheet? These issues remain unclear.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>In a recent report, analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out that when answering which policy interest rate path was most appropriate at the January FOMC meeting, the focus was on flexibility (nimble). This means that the Fed's monetary policy will shift from the \"new normal\" to \"flexibility\" in 2022 and will accelerate its shift towards \"data dependence\".</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike would be based on economic data, and seems to correspond to an earlier concept of \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how should we understand the Federal Reserve's new \"adaptable\" framework? UBS believes this time is different from the \"data dependence\" during the Yellen era. So where exactly is it different? What does this mean for the market?</p><p><h2>A new \"adaptable\" framework: the essence remains to maintain discretionary power.</h2>Aside from stating that rate hike would begin \"soon,\" the January meeting largely abandoned forward-looking guidance.</p><p>Powell initially stated at the press conference that he could not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, thus outlining the most serious scenario. However, Federal Reserve officials subsequently delivered speeches in a more moderate and leisurely manner.</p><p>Currently, almost all officials have retaliated against the 50 basis point rate hike in March, and most officials seem to be hinting at about four rate hike this year, each time by 25 basis points.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>The signal:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic initially said he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time if necessary, but then immediately changed his tune, saying that a 50 basis point rate hike was not his preferred policy action in March. In an article in the Financial Times, he expressed his hope that rate hike would win three times in 2022.<b>However, other possibilities cannot be ruled out.</b>He also stated, \"I think the message the chairman wants to convey is:\"<b>We're not on any particular track. The data will tell us what happened.</b>\"We hope that price pressures will ease naturally as supply chain issues are resolved, which means the Fed will have to do less,\" Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said on January 28. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials believe there could be three rate hike this year, each by about 25 basis points.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>\"San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly said on January 31, 'It's appropriate to consult more.' Assuming four rate hike in 2022, with interest rates reaching 1.25%, that's a considerable tightening, but it also leaves considerable room in the system because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy rather than causing damage.\"<b>I think this balance is the right way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>“Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I’m not so sure right now…” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on February 1.<b>If inflation remains at its current level and continues to decline, I don't think it will rate hike by 50 basis points.</b>UBS believes that<b>Officials began with quarterly rate hike, avoiding the inference that the market was rate hike at every meeting and retaining the option of accelerating or slowing policy later.</b></p><p>UBS's current baseline forecast is that the FOMC will withdraw its easing policy through a 25-basis-point rate hike in each quarter of this year (March, June, September, and December) and begin shrinking its balance sheet at the FOMC meeting in May (or possibly no later than July).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, especially inflation data and data reflecting the inflation outlook. May's inflation data will be a watershed moment in influencing policy direction:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (until May), then in the second half of this year the FOMC may shift from quarterly rate hike to a rate hike pace at each meeting. The June FOMC meeting may begin to signal July rate hike, and then, at subsequent meetings, rate hike by 25 basis points as needed. Conversely, if inflation begins to weaken in the second half of the year, the FOMC may also pause rate hike. This indicates that the new framework retains the \"flexibility\" option needed by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, while in essence, the Federal Reserve is still maintaining its discretionary power.</p><p><h2>Is this really different?</h2>The Federal Reserve has consistently avoided using fixed rules to constrain its monetary policy decisions. For example, during the Yellen era, in order to maintain discretionary power, the Fed often promoted theory first and continuously updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>This tendency became even more pronounced during the Powell era, especially after the outbreak of the pandemic. The media even described Powell's Federal Reserve as \"like Greenspan's time,\" saying that Powell emphasized discretion and rejected rules and regulations.</p><p>However, discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is even harder for the Federal Reserve to convince the market that it is serious about achieving its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that<b>The Federal Reserve's \"data dependence\" today is completely different from the situation 20 years ago.</b>During Yellen's tenure as Fed Chair, although Fed policy had a very clear \"data dependence,\" often saying that \"policy did not follow a predetermined path,\" the rate hike path at the time largely followed a stable and predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Williams said in a speech after the FOMC meeting, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy depends on data.\" The speech ended with, \"I can't tell you the exact rate hike date... but I can't anyway...\"</p><p>However, at that meeting, the Federal Reserve's median forecast for GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 was 1.8%-2.0%. The final results showed that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that the Federal Reserve had a large degree of control over economic data at the time, and the Fed could set its policy path in advance. However, this time is really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</p><p>Take the most crucial inflation data as an example.<b>A recent survey by professional forecasters at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve predicted the GDP deflator for the fourth quarter of 2021.</b>(A commonly used measure of inflation)<b>The forecast dispersion reached its peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increase in uncertainty is reminiscent of the years before the 1990s, the decades before the so-called \"Great Ease of Inflation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analysts currently disagree on their expectations for future inflation, with supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic undoubtedly being one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, in contrast to the flattening of the Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to a decline in the unemployment rate without an increase in the inflation rate), the current economic environment—the trend of globalization—has reversed since 2008. Declining capital factor prices face the constraint of zero interest rates, the global demographic dividend is fading away, the burden of an aging society is becoming increasingly heavy, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation. Monetary authorities not only face more complex trade-offs but also need to carefully maintain their independence. These factors are all forces calling for the return of inflation and the \"revival\" of the Phillips curve.</p><p>Today, the Federal Reserve faces greater challenges, a more uncertain economic outlook, and much greater volatility in macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the fourth quarter, which has already passed, economic forecasts are very divided.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that during the \"Great Easing\" period, data reliance may be a form of escape, but<b>Data dependency is necessary in the current context.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>There will be risks of greater instability in policies.</h2>While the Federal Reserve's new \"adaptable\" framework helps it respond to various possible outcomes in a timely manner, to reiterate, discretion has its drawbacks. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability and possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if central banks rely on data, which is more unstable than in modern history, this means that policies also have the risk of greater instability, which also represents another source of macroeconomic fluctuations.</p><p>UBS stated that<b>The central bank's reliance on increasingly volatile data will be part of a new era for the macroeconomy.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is this really different? How to understand the Federal Reserve's new \"adaptive\" framework</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs this really different? How to understand the Federal Reserve's new \"adaptive\" framework\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-10 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>In 2022, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will accelerate its shift towards \"data dependence,\" but the problem is that data is too unpredictable in the new rate hike cycle.</b>In its January FOMC statement, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it would \"soon\" be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that rate hike in March were imminent. However, regarding the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized it during the Q&A session of the press conference.<b>Officials did not make any decisions and said the FOMC needed to remain flexible (\"nimble\") and did not rule out any options.</b></p><p>Powell stated, \"We will make a decision based on the data to be released and the evolving outlook.\"</p><p><b>This statement created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market:</b>How many times will the Federal Reserve rate hike this year? Will the previous meetings significantly rate hike by 50 basis points? The timing of shrinking balance sheet? These issues remain unclear.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>In a recent report, analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out that when answering which policy interest rate path was most appropriate at the January FOMC meeting, the focus was on flexibility (nimble). This means that the Fed's monetary policy will shift from the \"new normal\" to \"flexibility\" in 2022 and will accelerate its shift towards \"data dependence\".</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike would be based on economic data, and seems to correspond to an earlier concept of \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how should we understand the Federal Reserve's new \"adaptable\" framework? UBS believes this time is different from the \"data dependence\" during the Yellen era. So where exactly is it different? What does this mean for the market?</p><p><h2>A new \"adaptable\" framework: the essence remains to maintain discretionary power.</h2>Aside from stating that rate hike would begin \"soon,\" the January meeting largely abandoned forward-looking guidance.</p><p>Powell initially stated at the press conference that he could not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, thus outlining the most serious scenario. However, Federal Reserve officials subsequently delivered speeches in a more moderate and leisurely manner.</p><p>Currently, almost all officials have retaliated against the 50 basis point rate hike in March, and most officials seem to be hinting at about four rate hike this year, each time by 25 basis points.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>The signal:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic initially said he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time if necessary, but then immediately changed his tune, saying that a 50 basis point rate hike was not his preferred policy action in March. In an article in the Financial Times, he expressed his hope that rate hike would win three times in 2022.<b>However, other possibilities cannot be ruled out.</b>He also stated, \"I think the message the chairman wants to convey is:\"<b>We're not on any particular track. The data will tell us what happened.</b>\"We hope that price pressures will ease naturally as supply chain issues are resolved, which means the Fed will have to do less,\" Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said on January 28. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials believe there could be three rate hike this year, each by about 25 basis points.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>\"San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly said on January 31, 'It's appropriate to consult more.' Assuming four rate hike in 2022, with interest rates reaching 1.25%, that's a considerable tightening, but it also leaves considerable room in the system because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy rather than causing damage.\"<b>I think this balance is the right way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>“Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I’m not so sure right now…” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on February 1.<b>If inflation remains at its current level and continues to decline, I don't think it will rate hike by 50 basis points.</b>UBS believes that<b>Officials began with quarterly rate hike, avoiding the inference that the market was rate hike at every meeting and retaining the option of accelerating or slowing policy later.</b></p><p>UBS's current baseline forecast is that the FOMC will withdraw its easing policy through a 25-basis-point rate hike in each quarter of this year (March, June, September, and December) and begin shrinking its balance sheet at the FOMC meeting in May (or possibly no later than July).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, especially inflation data and data reflecting the inflation outlook. May's inflation data will be a watershed moment in influencing policy direction:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (until May), then in the second half of this year the FOMC may shift from quarterly rate hike to a rate hike pace at each meeting. The June FOMC meeting may begin to signal July rate hike, and then, at subsequent meetings, rate hike by 25 basis points as needed. Conversely, if inflation begins to weaken in the second half of the year, the FOMC may also pause rate hike. This indicates that the new framework retains the \"flexibility\" option needed by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, while in essence, the Federal Reserve is still maintaining its discretionary power.</p><p><h2>Is this really different?</h2>The Federal Reserve has consistently avoided using fixed rules to constrain its monetary policy decisions. For example, during the Yellen era, in order to maintain discretionary power, the Fed often promoted theory first and continuously updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>This tendency became even more pronounced during the Powell era, especially after the outbreak of the pandemic. The media even described Powell's Federal Reserve as \"like Greenspan's time,\" saying that Powell emphasized discretion and rejected rules and regulations.</p><p>However, discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is even harder for the Federal Reserve to convince the market that it is serious about achieving its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that<b>The Federal Reserve's \"data dependence\" today is completely different from the situation 20 years ago.</b>During Yellen's tenure as Fed Chair, although Fed policy had a very clear \"data dependence,\" often saying that \"policy did not follow a predetermined path,\" the rate hike path at the time largely followed a stable and predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Williams said in a speech after the FOMC meeting, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy depends on data.\" The speech ended with, \"I can't tell you the exact rate hike date... but I can't anyway...\"</p><p>However, at that meeting, the Federal Reserve's median forecast for GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 was 1.8%-2.0%. The final results showed that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that the Federal Reserve had a large degree of control over economic data at the time, and the Fed could set its policy path in advance. However, this time is really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</p><p>Take the most crucial inflation data as an example.<b>A recent survey by professional forecasters at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve predicted the GDP deflator for the fourth quarter of 2021.</b>(A commonly used measure of inflation)<b>The forecast dispersion reached its peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increase in uncertainty is reminiscent of the years before the 1990s, the decades before the so-called \"Great Ease of Inflation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analysts currently disagree on their expectations for future inflation, with supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic undoubtedly being one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, in contrast to the flattening of the Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to a decline in the unemployment rate without an increase in the inflation rate), the current economic environment—the trend of globalization—has reversed since 2008. Declining capital factor prices face the constraint of zero interest rates, the global demographic dividend is fading away, the burden of an aging society is becoming increasingly heavy, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation. Monetary authorities not only face more complex trade-offs but also need to carefully maintain their independence. These factors are all forces calling for the return of inflation and the \"revival\" of the Phillips curve.</p><p>Today, the Federal Reserve faces greater challenges, a more uncertain economic outlook, and much greater volatility in macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the fourth quarter, which has already passed, economic forecasts are very divided.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that during the \"Great Easing\" period, data reliance may be a form of escape, but<b>Data dependency is necessary in the current context.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>There will be risks of greater instability in policies.</h2>While the Federal Reserve's new \"adaptable\" framework helps it respond to various possible outcomes in a timely manner, to reiterate, discretion has its drawbacks. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability and possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if central banks rely on data, which is more unstable than in modern history, this means that policies also have the risk of greater instability, which also represents another source of macroeconomic fluctuations.</p><p>UBS stated that<b>The central bank's reliance on increasingly volatile data will be part of a new era for the macroeconomy.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210980598","content_text":"摘要：2022年美联储货币政策将加速转向“数据依赖性”，但问题在于在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。在1月的FOMC声明中，美联储提到“很快”将“适合”加息，清晰地表明3月加息即将到来，不过对于具体的政策路径，鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节多次强调，官员们并未做出任何决定，并表示FOMC需要保持灵活应变（\"nimble\"），不排除任何选择。鲍威尔表示，“我们将根据接下来公布的数据和不断演变的前景去做决定”。这番表述给市场营造了一种不确定的氛围：美联储今年到底会加息几次？前几次会议是否会大幅加息50个基点？缩表的时间点？这些问题仍然不明确。瑞银分析师Jonathan Pingle在最近的报告中指出，1月FOMC会议在回答哪条政策利率路径最为合适时，重点提到了灵活应变（nimble），这意味着2022美联储货币政策从“新常态”转变为“灵活应变”，并将加速转向“数据依赖性”。这听上去与耶伦当年强调加息将基于经济数据的理念似曾相似，也似乎可以对应到更早一点的“自由裁量权”（discretion）。那么，如何理解美联储这种“随机应变”式新框架？瑞银认为这一次与耶伦时期的“数据依赖”不一样，那到底哪儿不一样？对于市场来说意味着什么？“随机应变”式新框架：本质仍是保持自由裁量权除了表示“很快”就开始加息外，1月会议基本放弃了前瞻性指引。鲍威尔先是在发布会上表示不排除每次会议都加息的可能性，将最为严重的情况抛了出来，但随后美联储官员陆续发表讲话，风格又更加温和和留有余地。目前，基本上所有官员都对3月加息50个基点进行了回击，大多数官员似乎都在暗示今年大约将加息4次，每次25个基点。很多官员也表达了政策将遵循数据的信号：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克一开始表示如有必要可以一次加息50基点，但随后又立马“改口”称，加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动；他在英国《金融时报》的一篇文章中表示，希望2022年加息三次，但不排除其他可能性。他还表示：“我认为主席想要传达的信息是：我们没有走上任何特定的轨道。数据会告诉我们发生了什么。”明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里1月28日表示：“我们希望物价压力会随着供应链问题解决而自然得到缓解，这意味着美联储不得不做得更少。现在，委员会已经发出信号，大多数官员认为今年可能会有三次加息，每次大约25个基点。但是，我们必须看到相应的数据。”旧金山联储主席戴利1月31日表示：“多多参考才是合适的。假设2022年加息4次，利率达到1.25%，这是相当大的紧缩，但也是系统中留下的相当大的空间，因为中性利率是2.5%，这仍然在支持经济，而不是造成破坏。我认为这种平衡是应对我们面临的不确定性的恰当方式。”费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克2月1日表示：“我们能一次加息50个基点吗？可以的。但我们应该吗？我现在不太确定这一点……如果通胀保持在现在的水平，并继续下降，我不认为会加息50个基点。”瑞银认为，官员们以季度加息开始，回避了市场每次会议都加息的推断，保留了以后加速或放缓政策的选项。目前瑞银的基线预测是，FOMC将通过今年每个季度（3月、6月、9月和12月）加息25个基点来撤走宽松政策，并在5月的FOMC会议（或可能不迟于7月的会议）上开始缩减资产负债表。然而，该行认为，这条路径将高度依赖于数据，尤其是通胀数据以及反映通胀前景的数据。其中，5月份的通胀数据将是影响政策走向的分水岭：如果上半年（一直到5月）通胀数据出人意料地继续上升，那么在今年下半年，FOMC可能会从季度加息转向每次会议加息的节奏，6月FOMC会议可能会开始传达7月加息的信号，然后在随后的会议上，根据需要，连续加息25个基点。反过来，如果下半年通胀开始走软，FOMC也可能会暂停加息。这表明，新框架保留了美联储今年下半年所需的“灵活应变”的选择权，而从本质上看，美联储仍是在保持自由裁量权。这次真的不一样？美联储一直避免使用某种固定的规则来约束自己的货币政策决策，如在耶伦时期，为了保持自由裁量权，美联储常常推动理论先行，以创新性的学术研究成果来对框架不断更新。到了鲍威尔时代，尤其在疫情爆发后，这样的倾向更加明显。媒体甚至用“鲍威尔的美联储仿佛格林斯潘时的模样”来形容鲍威尔强调自由裁量，拒绝条条框框。但是自由裁量权有其缺点。在没有坚定承诺的情况下，美联储更难让市场相信，其实现2%的通胀目标是认真的。不过，瑞银认为，如今美联储的“数据依赖”与之前20年的情况截然不同，在耶伦作为联储主席的时期，尽管美联储政策有着非常明确的“数据依赖性”，耶伦经常说，“政策并没有按照预先设定的路线走”，但当时的加息路径基本上遵循了一种稳定、可预测的模式。比如2015年6月，旧金山联储主席Williams在当时的FOMC会议后发表讲话说：“这对利率意味着什么？正如我所说的，政策是依赖数据的。”演讲以“我不能告诉你具体加息日期……但无论如何我不能……”结束。但在那次会议上，美联储对2015年第四季度GDP的预测中值为1.8%-2.0%。最终结果证明，四季度GDP为1.9%。这说明，当时的美联储对经济数据很大程度上是有掌控的，美联储是可以预先设定政策路径的，然而这一次真的不一样。因为在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。拿最关键的通胀数据来说，近期费城联储调查的专业预测员对2021年第四季度GDP平减指数（衡量通货膨胀的常用指标）的预测离散度，高达金融危机期间的峰值。这种不确定性的增加让人想起上世纪90年代之前的那些年，也就是所谓的“通胀大缓和”之前的几十年。当下对于未来通胀的预期，分析师存在很多分歧，疫情导致的供应链中断无疑是其中的扰乱因素之一。除此之外，有分析师认为，与“通胀大缓和”时期菲利普斯曲线平坦化（指失业率下降，并没有带来通胀率的上升）相对的是，如今的经济环境——全球化趋势已经在2008年出现逆转，资本要素价格下行面临零利率约束，全球人口红利渐行渐远，老龄化社会的负担越来越重，货币政策也悄然降低了稳通胀的权重，货币当局不仅面临着更复杂的权衡，还需谨慎维护其独立性，这些因素都是呼唤通胀回归和菲利普斯曲线“复活”的力量。今天的美联储面临着更大的挑战，经济前景更加不确定，宏观经济数据的波动性要大得多。在专业预测人士眼中，即使是对已经过去的第四季度，经济预测分歧也非常大。因此，瑞银认为，在“大缓和”时期，数据依赖可能是一种逃避，但当前背景下的数据依赖性是必要的。考虑到广泛的不确定性和数据波动性，FOMC别无选择。政策将有更不稳定的风险虽然美联储“随机应变”式的新框架有助于其及时应对各种可能的结果，但重复一下前文，自由裁量权是有其缺点的，对于市场而言，这种灵活性也意味着更少的可预测性，可能更少的规律性。除此之外，如果央行依赖于数据，而数据相比近代历史更不稳定，这意味着政策也有更不稳定的风险，这也代表着宏观经济波动的另一个来源。而瑞银表示，央行对波动性加剧的数据的依赖，将是宏观经济新时代的一部分。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091584405,"gmtCreate":1643900259622,"gmtModify":1676533869437,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091584405","repostId":"2208360102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208360102","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1643859305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208360102?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-03 11:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity to \"buy on dips\" in US stocks. What is the basis for this?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208360102","media":"Wind万得","summary":"如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P 500 index briefly entered a correction phase last week due to sharp market volatility caused by the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Goldman Sachs believes that this pullback indicates that investors have a buying opportunity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Wall Street firm said that if history is any guide, corrections rarely turn into bear markets unless the economy enters a recession. “Historically, a correction in the S&P 500 has typically been a good buying opportunity,” David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a report. \"If the economy has not entered a recession, market corrections are usually good buying opportunities.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve said last week it would raise interest rates soon for the first time in more than three years, as part of a comprehensive tightening of its historically loose monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest he had been since taking office as chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy, and inflation above target.</p><p>Feroli believes, \"Although Powell has not yet made a clear statement, he has made it clear that continuous rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, which is also a risk we have been monitoring.\"</p><p>\"The Federal Reserve is now chasing inflation and is in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. Her comments were harsher than the initial statement. It affirmed the Federal Reserve's position.</p><p>This shift has triggered a recent significant increase in volatility on Wall Street, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the beginning of the month; This was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>In the new year, technology stocks led the decline, with investors selling off high-priced and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell about 12% in January, down 15% from its all-time high. However, Goldman Sachs points out that a 10% adjustment is not uncommon in a given calendar year.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median 13% decline from peak to trough in a calendar year, with a correction of more than 10% in 62% of the years. Goldman Sachs said that since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced 33 corrections of 10% or more, with the median lasting about five months, including an 18% drop from high to low.</p><p>The company stated that if investors bought the S&P 500 at a level 10% below its high, regardless of whether it was the bottom at the time, their average return would be 15% over the following 12 months. Goldman Sachs said that in 21 non-recession adjustments, the S&P 500 index typically fell 15%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>An analysis by Deutsche Bank shows that about halfway through the earnings season, the number of companies with sales and profits exceeding Wall Street expectations is higher than average, although lower than at the beginning of the recovery.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of Barclays Capital, said that corporate performance has been good, but considerations include not only the Federal Reserve's change in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. “Both of these things are a problem now,” he said. \"This time, the gains may not be able to save the situation.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity to \"buy on dips\" in US stocks. What is the basis for this?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity to \"buy on dips\" in US stocks. What is the basis for this?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-03 11:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P 500 index briefly entered a correction phase last week due to sharp market volatility caused by the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Goldman Sachs believes that this pullback indicates that investors have a buying opportunity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Wall Street firm said that if history is any guide, corrections rarely turn into bear markets unless the economy enters a recession. “Historically, a correction in the S&P 500 has typically been a good buying opportunity,” David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a report. \"If the economy has not entered a recession, market corrections are usually good buying opportunities.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve said last week it would raise interest rates soon for the first time in more than three years, as part of a comprehensive tightening of its historically loose monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest he had been since taking office as chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy, and inflation above target.</p><p>Feroli believes, \"Although Powell has not yet made a clear statement, he has made it clear that continuous rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, which is also a risk we have been monitoring.\"</p><p>\"The Federal Reserve is now chasing inflation and is in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. Her comments were harsher than the initial statement. It affirmed the Federal Reserve's position.</p><p>This shift has triggered a recent significant increase in volatility on Wall Street, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the beginning of the month; This was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>In the new year, technology stocks led the decline, with investors selling off high-priced and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell about 12% in January, down 15% from its all-time high. However, Goldman Sachs points out that a 10% adjustment is not uncommon in a given calendar year.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median 13% decline from peak to trough in a calendar year, with a correction of more than 10% in 62% of the years. Goldman Sachs said that since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced 33 corrections of 10% or more, with the median lasting about five months, including an 18% drop from high to low.</p><p>The company stated that if investors bought the S&P 500 at a level 10% below its high, regardless of whether it was the bottom at the time, their average return would be 15% over the following 12 months. Goldman Sachs said that in 21 non-recession adjustments, the S&P 500 index typically fell 15%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>An analysis by Deutsche Bank shows that about halfway through the earnings season, the number of companies with sales and profits exceeding Wall Street expectations is higher than average, although lower than at the beginning of the recovery.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of Barclays Capital, said that corporate performance has been good, but considerations include not only the Federal Reserve's change in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. “Both of these things are a problem now,” he said. \"This time, the gains may not be able to save the situation.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208360102","content_text":"标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上周一度进入回调区间，因美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策调整造成市场剧烈震荡，但高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为，此次回落标志着投资者有买入机会。这家华尔街公司说，如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。“从历史角度看，标普500指数修正通常是良好的买入机会，”高盛美国股市策略主管David Kostin在报告中称。“如果经济没有进入衰退，市场调整通常是好的买入机会。”美联储上周表示，将很快提高利率，这是三年多来的首次，是历来宽松的货币政策全面收紧的一部分。摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，鲍威尔是担任主席以来最强硬的一次。鲍威尔重申，当前的紧缩周期与上一个周期不同，劳动力市场强劲，经济强劲，通胀高于目标。Feroli认为：“虽然鲍威尔仍未明确表态，但他明确表示，在连续的会议上不断加息是一种可能，这也是我们一直在关注的风险。”均富(Grant Thornton)首席经济学家黛安斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“美联储现在正在追逐通胀，陷入了恐慌。”他的评论比最初的声明更加强硬。它肯定了美联储的立场。这一转变引发了华尔街最近波动显著增加，投资者艰难地根据利率风险对资产进行重新定价。标准普尔500指数1月下跌了约7%，较当月初的纪录高点下跌了8%；这也是自2020年3月以来最糟糕的一个月。在新的一年里，科技股领跌，投资者纷纷抛售高企、有时无利可图的股票。纳斯达克综合指数1月份下跌了约12%，较历史高点下跌了15%。不过，高盛指出，在一个给定的日历年里，10%的调整并不罕见。据高盛的数据，自1928年以来，标准普尔500指数经历了一个日历年中值13%的从高峰到低谷的下跌，62%的年份中有超过10%的修正。高盛说，自1950年以来，标普500指数已经出现了33次10%或以上的回调，中间值持续了约五个月，其中从高点到谷底的跌幅为18%。该公司表示，如果投资者在比高点低10%的水平买入标准普尔500指数，无论当时是否是谷底，那么在随后的12个月里，投资者的平均回报率为15%。高盛说，在21次非衰退调整中，标普500指数通常下跌15%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的一项分析显示，在财报季约过半之际，销售和利润超过华尔街预期的公司数量高于平均水平，尽管低于复苏初期的水平。不过巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)董事总经理Maneesh Deshpande表示，企业业绩一直不错，但考虑因素不仅包括美联储改变货币政策，还包括美联储在看似疲弱的经济中加息。“这两件事现在都是个问题，”他说。“这一次，收益可能无法挽救局面。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937627260,"gmtCreate":1663426920450,"gmtModify":1676537269149,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937627260","repostId":"1129633132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129633132","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663378125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129633132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129633132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.</li><li>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.</li><li>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.</li><li>How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?</li><li>Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f531f7b392a181968ec72c4a8f89f8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by &#34;mining&#34;. The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new &#34;proof-of-stake&#34; approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.</p><p><b>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming &#34;mining&#34;</b></p><p>The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872c823bfeb3e06182d2d3f6ab87879\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ethereum.org</span></p><p>Mining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.</p><p>In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.</p><p>Some miners may go to work on a &#34;hard fork&#34; of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it&#39;s unclear whether mining this will be profitable.</p><p>Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.</p><p><b>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales</b></p><p>Following Nvidia&#39;s revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.</p><p>The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.</p><p>However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe36f2d53f47c0d7e5cdf964d09c67fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BinInfoCharts</span></p><p>This implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.</p><p>This turned out to account very well for Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia&#39;s Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8223bcd7d3f44c30f5c60970c616fe0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>Note that the revenue impact doesn&#39;t only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.</p><p><b>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia&#39;s sales will be, at best, ugly</b></p><p>The model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it&#39;s not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.</p><p>If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia&#39;s RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00465fed542c67659f55786fcdf366b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>The model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.</p><p>This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn&#39;t absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.</p><p>As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren&#39;t comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0a909d1edae7870adea14e3f987d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>So the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won&#39;t fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia&#39;s crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum&#39;s mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.</p><p><b>How will the Merge affect Nvidia&#39;s expected RTX 40 series launch?</b></p><p>Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5990337b62c49447e21da39a199e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><p>Various tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.</p><p>The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It&#39;s not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.</p><p>Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.</p><p>Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don&#39;t have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD&#39;s next-generation GPUs have only been &#34;teased&#34; but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.</p><p>The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.</p><p>Since<i>none</i>of the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.</p><p>Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.</p><p>Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.</p><p><b>Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</b></p><p>Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?</p><p>When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.</p><p>If Nvidia really wasn&#39;t accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.</p><p>In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I&#39;m assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.</p><p>Despite this, I&#39;m still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia&#39;s next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.</p><p>Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia&#39;s ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8026f845d3af92219bdc2bb1bc67be19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>According to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia&#39;s future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.</p><p>Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I&#39;m pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I&#39;m waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia&#39;s price even lower.</p><p>Also, I&#39;m waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 09:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129633132","content_text":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by \"mining\". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new \"proof-of-stake\" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming \"mining\"The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:Ethereum.orgMining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.Some miners may go to work on a \"hard fork\" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card salesFollowing Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:BinInfoChartsThis implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:Mark HibbenNote that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, uglyThe model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:Mark HibbenThe model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:Mark HibbenSo the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:NvidiaVarious tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been \"teased\" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.Sincenoneof the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:Mark HibbenAccording to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019158814,"gmtCreate":1648563118186,"gmtModify":1676534354558,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019158814","repostId":"2222916938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035751472,"gmtCreate":1647699724057,"gmtModify":1676534259279,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035751472","repostId":"2220670637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220670637","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647671973,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220670637?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-19 14:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of High Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220670637","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，美股反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦？1970s大通胀时代下的资产轮动或许能够提供借鉴。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate hike was released, but US stocks rebounded sharply.</p><p>In response, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, known as \"Wall Street's most pessimistic analyst,\" believes that...<b>This rebound is merely a \"temporary pause\" in the bear market, and the \"recession shock\" is about to begin.</b></p><p>Hartnett explained that the historic short squeeze largely contributed to the widespread market rally:</p><p>This is nothing more than a \"bear market ceasefire rally,\" as the world continues to descend into the purgatory of stagflation.<b>The real bear market won't begin until the recession begins, sometime in the second half of 2022.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Hartnett believes that the prolonged lows in interest rates in the 2020s, coupled with inflation, meant a rapid and unstable economic and investment cycle from boom to bust.</p><p>Learning from history, Hartnett review examined asset rotation during the era of high inflation in the 1970s.</p><p><b>Early in this period, the market was initially bullish on physical assets, commodities, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS) (TIPS), small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, just a few years later, during the great stagflationary shock of 1973/4, only commodities remained strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From 1974 to 1981, it was time to buy small-cap value stocks and real estate, and commodities were still performing well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>What happens next? This will depend on whether the Federal Reserve has the courage to raise interest rates to 20% in the short term, as Volcker did in 1981, even if it means the collapse of risky assets.</p><p>Hartnett also offered advice on how to hedge against potential market pain:</p><p>The best recession hedge is betting on a \"steepening yield curve,\" the best stagflation hedge is betting on a depreciating dollar, and the best soft landing hedge is betting on non-US stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of High Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of High Inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-19 14:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate hike was released, but US stocks rebounded sharply.</p><p>In response, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, known as \"Wall Street's most pessimistic analyst,\" believes that...<b>This rebound is merely a \"temporary pause\" in the bear market, and the \"recession shock\" is about to begin.</b></p><p>Hartnett explained that the historic short squeeze largely contributed to the widespread market rally:</p><p>This is nothing more than a \"bear market ceasefire rally,\" as the world continues to descend into the purgatory of stagflation.<b>The real bear market won't begin until the recession begins, sometime in the second half of 2022.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Hartnett believes that the prolonged lows in interest rates in the 2020s, coupled with inflation, meant a rapid and unstable economic and investment cycle from boom to bust.</p><p>Learning from history, Hartnett review examined asset rotation during the era of high inflation in the 1970s.</p><p><b>Early in this period, the market was initially bullish on physical assets, commodities, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS) (TIPS), small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, just a few years later, during the great stagflationary shock of 1973/4, only commodities remained strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From 1974 to 1981, it was time to buy small-cap value stocks and real estate, and commodities were still performing well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>What happens next? This will depend on whether the Federal Reserve has the courage to raise interest rates to 20% in the short term, as Volcker did in 1981, even if it means the collapse of risky assets.</p><p>Hartnett also offered advice on how to hedge against potential market pain:</p><p>The best recession hedge is betting on a \"steepening yield curve,\" the best stagflation hedge is betting on a depreciating dollar, and the best soft landing hedge is betting on non-US stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654678\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","TIPS":"Tianrong Internet Products and Services, Inc.","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654678","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220670637","content_text":"上周，美联储加息落地，美股却大幅反弹。对此，有“华尔街最悲观分析师”之称的美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，这场反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。Hartnett解释道，历史性的逼空在很大程度上促成了市场的大范围融涨：这不过是一场“熊市停火反弹”（\"bear market ceasefire rally\" ），因为世界继续陷入滞胀的炼狱，真正的熊市要到衰退开始时才会开始，时间是2022年下半年的某个时候。Hartnett认为，2020年代利率的长期低点叠加着通胀，意味着快速且不稳定的从繁荣到萧条的经济和投资周期。以史为鉴，Hartnett复盘了上世纪七十年代大通胀时代下的资产轮动。在这个时期的初期，市场最初是看涨实物资产、大宗商品、通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)、小盘价值股和新兴市场。然而，短短几年之后，在1973/4年的大滞胀冲击中，只有大宗商品持续坚挺。到1974年至1981年，就到了买进小盘价值股、房地产的时候，此时大宗商品依然表现不错。接下来会发生什么？这将取决于美联储是否有勇气像1981年沃尔克那样，在短期内将利率提高到20%，即使这也意味着风险资产的崩溃。对于如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦，Hartnett也给出了建议：最好的衰退对冲是押注“收益率曲线变陡”最好的滞胀对冲是押注美元贬值最好的软着陆对冲是押注非美国股票","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.6,"TIPS":1,"NQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.85}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}