$Alphabet(GOOG)$   $GOOGL Cloud revenue +103%. Operating income +30%. Stock -10% after hours. Same night, Microsoft spent $45B on capex and rose ~4%. So the market is not punishing AI spending. My hypothesis: it is punishing who pays for it. 29 Oct 2026 · Alphabet Q3 2026 (unaudited release) 1) The number nobody led with Q3 buybacks: zero. A year ago: $11.5B. Year to date: zero, vs $39.8B in 2025. Instead, Alphabet sold $12.4B of new stock in Q3 through an at-the-market program, and $42.9B this year. Add $19.1B of convertible preferred and $85.2B of new debt: about $147B of outside money raised in nine months. Diluted share count is up 1.35% year on year. The share count used to shrink every quarter. 2) Why it needed the money Operating

$Microsoft(MSFT)$   Microsoft guided to over $50 billion of capex for July to September. It reported $45.2 billion. That reads as a miss. Microsoft says why: some third-party capacity deliveries came late. The accounting explains why a late delivery shows up as a capex miss at all. And a second line on the balance sheet, the one the headline does not count, grew $6.0 billion in the same quarter. THE HEADLINE Capex including finance leases: $45.2 billion. Inside that, finance leases: $7.4 billion. Cash paid for property and equipment: $39.4 billion. THE MECHANISM On the call, CFO Amy Hood said Microsoft recognises "the full principal value of finance leases in CapEx at the time of lease commencement." She said the late deliveries were GPU

$BMNR 20261030 21.0 PUT$ Cash secured put

Core CPI: 2.6%. Core PCE, the Fed's own gauge: 3.0%. Core CPI over the last three months, annualised: 3.4%. Three "core" numbers, one rate decision. The gap between them is the story. It is not the headline number minus the funds rate. The Fed decides today (usually 2 PM ET, which is 1 AM Thursday in Bangkok, 2 AM in Singapore). I am not predicting the decision. I want to show how I read the debate. The method works on any inflation scare. 1) Which "real rate"? The funds midpoint is 3.875%. Subtract headline CPI (3.7%) and you get 0.2. Subtract core CPI (2.6%) and you get 1.3. That is just arithmetic. It hides a choice. The choice is the gauge. The Fed targets PCE, not CPI. Normally core PCE runs below core CPI. From 1990 to 2019 it did in 86% of months, by a median of 0.47 points (FRED da

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$   SoFi reported third-quarter results before the US open today. Revenue grew 44%. Pre-tax profit grew 114%. EPS grew 64%. Same company, same quarter, three growth rates. The gaps between them are where the information is. WHAT I WROTE DOWN BEFORE TODAY On 6 October I wrote what I would read first on 27 October, and it was not the revenue line. Deposits growing near $5 billion a quarter. Net interest margin near 6%. Reported: deposits grew $5.8 billion in the quarter, to $51.3 billion. Net interest margin was 6.14%, against 5.84% a year ago. Both cleared the lines I set. That tells me the funding side held. It does not tell me what happened to profit per share, so here is how to check that. THE THREE CHECKS

$MARA 20261120 9.5 CALL$ Covered call daily. If it gets called away, so be it.

Anthropic filed to go public yesterday. The headline number is a net loss of $80,748 million for the six months to 30 June 2026. The operating loss for the same six months was $693 million. Same company, same six months. One number is 116 times the other. If you stop at the headline, you read the wrong business. WHY THE HEADLINE IS MISLEADING A net loss is the last line. It adds up everything: running the business, plus interest, plus changes in what the company owes on paper. Here, $72,388 million of the loss is one line: the change in fair value of convertible notes, derivatives and SAFEs. The filing says it was driven mainly by the rise in the company's own valuation. When a company gets more valuable, the people holding its convertible paper own something more valuable too. The account

$SOFI 20261106 17.0 CALL$ Pmcc. Selling calls which previously i left the Leap uncovered 

$MARA 20261030 6.5 PUT$ Cash secured put. Testing waters. Haha

$MARA 20261120 9.0 CALL$ Covered call. 

$TTD DIAGONAL 261030/261113 CALL 13.0/CALL 13.5$ Rolling up and out for a credit

$ORCL DIAGONAL 261106/261120 CALL 180.0/CALL 165.0$ Shifting down short call positon to capture more premium.

$APP DIAGONAL 261030/261113 CALL 340.0/CALL 320.0$ Shifting short leg of pmcc lower to squeeze more premium. Earnings coming soon but should be quite abit of cushion before it hits my strike. Wont be too optimistic this earnings call because last few earnings beat counters all got beaten down anyway. If this is going to be a surprise move up, it will be a happy problem anyway.

$AVGO DIAGONAL 261113/261127 CALL 400.0/CALL 380.0$ Shifting short call lower. Underlying dropped substantially and short call positon realised quite a bit of profit.  Instead of waiting for the rest of the theta decay, im shifting it closer to underlying for better premium collection. Cant do much, can only wait.

$KKR 20261120 100.0 CALL$ Selling call as the short leg of pmcc.  Been a frustrating month as we see most counters falling together with the AI trade. Cant be helped so just have some patience and collect premium while waiting.  Earnings call soon but I doubt it will shoot past 100.

The average high-yield bond now yields 8.14%. Six months ago it was 6.75%. The weakest slice, rated CCC and below, went from 12.97% to 17.99%. Same market, same six months. The average moved 1.39 points. The bottom moved 5.02. WHY THE AVERAGE LOOKS CALM An index is an average. An average can sit still while one part of it falls apart, because the healthy parts pull the number back toward the middle. That is true of a bond index, a sector fund, and your own options book. If you only read the headline number, you find out about the tail last. Here is how to split an average and see where the move really came from. THE THREE CHECKS Check one: write down the move in the headline number between two dates. Pick the dates before you look, so you don't choose the window that tells the best story.

4 losses in a row with a 70% win rate. Your system didn't break. You just met math. Over 100 trades, there is a 43% chance of at least one streak like that. Why a streak feels like a signal Four losses in a row feels like a pattern. It feels like something changed. So the instinct is to fix a rule, tighten a filter, or skip the next setup. That instinct has a cost. If you change the rules in the middle of a sample, you delete the evidence you were collecting. Here is how to check whether the streak means anything before you touch a thing. The three checks Check one: find your real win rate over a decent sample. Count wins and trades from your journal. Use the whole record, not the last month. In the example below the win rate is 70%. Check two: ask how often a streak this long happens by c

$WDC 20261030 355.0 CALL$ Selling covered call on the short term position i have. Just 1 week out

$WDC 20261023 352.5 CALL$ Covered call

$Western Digital(WDC)$ Punt again