lcGoh personal page - To The Moon

lcGoh

lcGoh

No personal profile

36Follow

0Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-02-18

J

Opening | New situation in Russia and the United States, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell

2022-02-20

P

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-20

L

Do Hong Kong stocks deserve our gentle treatment?

2022-02-06

L

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-14

Yed

Where will the market go amid geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic?

2022-03-02

L

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: rate hike is expected to be appropriate in March.

2022-02-15

L

Rivian surged 10%, with Soros buying in Q4, bringing his holdings worth over $2 billion.

2022-02-11

J

What impact will the suspension of thousands of mining operations have on major Southeast Asian resource-exporting countries?

2022-02-11

L

What impact will the suspension of thousands of mining operations have on major Southeast Asian resource-exporting countries?

2021-07-03

Like

Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3583111190875685","uuid":"3583111190875685","gmtCreate":1620018053186,"gmtModify":1655931331844,"name":"lcGoh","pinyin":"lcgoh","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":36,"tweetSize":118,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.02","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.06.12","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":190249042440240,"gmtCreate":1687473221441,"gmtModify":1687473224643,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"U","listText":"U","text":"U","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190249042440240","repostId":"1175881376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175881376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1687443697,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175881376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 22:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: Two more rate hike this year would be appropriate.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175881376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席参议院银行业委员会听证会时表示，今年再次加息两次将是适当的。他表示，保持利率不变是为了给自己更多时间做决策，委员会中绝大多数人认为利率还有一点上升空间，需要持续努力，以","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 22,<strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee that two more rate hike this year would be appropriate. He stated that keeping interest rates unchanged was to give himself more time to make decisions, and the vast majority of members of the committee believed that interest rates still had some room to rise and that continued efforts were needed to restore inflation to 2%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">When discussing the U.S. labor market, Powell stated that wages remain high, but are gradually moving towards sustainable levels. It is possible to achieve a better balance in the labor market without increasing unemployment, but there is no guarantee that this goal will be achieved.</p><p><strong>Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is committed to learning the right lessons from Silicon Valley Bank and will strengthen supervision and oversight of banks of similar size.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring banks with real estate risk exposure and is actively taking action to help these banks cope with commercial real estate concentration risks. The Federal Reserve will cooperate with banks with high commercial real estate holdings and is very concerned about risk exposure in the commercial real estate sector.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>In addition, the Federal Reserve will propose a plan to increase capital requirements for large banks. The Federal Reserve may raise capital requirements for large banks by 20%, and the new capital requirements will not apply to banks with assets under $100 billion.</strong>The Federal Reserve is committed to strengthening regulation of medium-sized banks to ensure that banks maintain a reasonable balance between capital security and credit costs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Powell emphasized that the U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path and needs to be repaired. The paper losses on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet have no impact on the Fed's monetary policy capabilities, and there is still a long way to go to solve the US inflation problem.</p><p>Powell stated that the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's actions against Silicon Valley Bank were not strong enough. In response to the significant impact of the Silicon Valley Bank incident, the United States needs to fix its liquidity regulations. In overseeing Silicon Valley Bank, regulatory failures occurred not only at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, but also at the Federal Reserve Board.</p><p><strong>Powell stated that he believes the U.S. economy has a path to a soft landing.</strong>The Federal Reserve does currently expect more rate hike, but more data is needed to support it. The United States is very close to its interest rate target, but it is wise to act cautiously and not want excessive rate hike to have the opposite effect on the market.</p><p>Referring to the recently booming U.S. labor market, Powell said that the labor force participation rate has risen more than expected. The Fed will do as little damage to the labor market and the economy as possible. Ideally, most labor market easing will occur in other ways and will not lead to unemployment. With the unemployment rate rising slightly, inflation is expected to continue to decline. The unemployment rate is expected to rise a little further. There is still a view that there is a way to achieve inflation relief without causing mass unemployment.</p><p>Powell stated that the labor market will gradually cool down and inflation will ease; The vast majority of the committee members believe that there will be two more rate hike before the end of this year; Last week's decision to suspend rate hike was intended to move forward more slowly in the future; The Federal Reserve is now close to its goal.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d28b60461b1f68206b3e27de532fa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"327\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: Two more rate hike this year would be appropriate.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: Two more rate hike this year would be appropriate.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-06-22 22:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 22,<strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee that two more rate hike this year would be appropriate. He stated that keeping interest rates unchanged was to give himself more time to make decisions, and the vast majority of members of the committee believed that interest rates still had some room to rise and that continued efforts were needed to restore inflation to 2%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">When discussing the U.S. labor market, Powell stated that wages remain high, but are gradually moving towards sustainable levels. It is possible to achieve a better balance in the labor market without increasing unemployment, but there is no guarantee that this goal will be achieved.</p><p><strong>Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is committed to learning the right lessons from Silicon Valley Bank and will strengthen supervision and oversight of banks of similar size.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring banks with real estate risk exposure and is actively taking action to help these banks cope with commercial real estate concentration risks. The Federal Reserve will cooperate with banks with high commercial real estate holdings and is very concerned about risk exposure in the commercial real estate sector.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>In addition, the Federal Reserve will propose a plan to increase capital requirements for large banks. The Federal Reserve may raise capital requirements for large banks by 20%, and the new capital requirements will not apply to banks with assets under $100 billion.</strong>The Federal Reserve is committed to strengthening regulation of medium-sized banks to ensure that banks maintain a reasonable balance between capital security and credit costs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Powell emphasized that the U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path and needs to be repaired. The paper losses on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet have no impact on the Fed's monetary policy capabilities, and there is still a long way to go to solve the US inflation problem.</p><p>Powell stated that the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's actions against Silicon Valley Bank were not strong enough. In response to the significant impact of the Silicon Valley Bank incident, the United States needs to fix its liquidity regulations. In overseeing Silicon Valley Bank, regulatory failures occurred not only at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, but also at the Federal Reserve Board.</p><p><strong>Powell stated that he believes the U.S. economy has a path to a soft landing.</strong>The Federal Reserve does currently expect more rate hike, but more data is needed to support it. The United States is very close to its interest rate target, but it is wise to act cautiously and not want excessive rate hike to have the opposite effect on the market.</p><p>Referring to the recently booming U.S. labor market, Powell said that the labor force participation rate has risen more than expected. The Fed will do as little damage to the labor market and the economy as possible. Ideally, most labor market easing will occur in other ways and will not lead to unemployment. With the unemployment rate rising slightly, inflation is expected to continue to decline. The unemployment rate is expected to rise a little further. There is still a view that there is a way to achieve inflation relief without causing mass unemployment.</p><p>Powell stated that the labor market will gradually cool down and inflation will ease; The vast majority of the committee members believe that there will be two more rate hike before the end of this year; Last week's decision to suspend rate hike was intended to move forward more slowly in the future; The Federal Reserve is now close to its goal.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d28b60461b1f68206b3e27de532fa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"327\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d28b60461b1f68206b3e27de532fa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175881376","content_text":"6月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席参议院银行业委员会听证会时表示，今年再次加息两次将是适当的。他表示，保持利率不变是为了给自己更多时间做决策，委员会中绝大多数人认为利率还有一点上升空间，需要持续努力，以恢复至2%的通胀水平。提及美国劳动力市场时，鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场工资仍然很高，但正在逐渐趋向可持续的水平。劳动力市场在不增加失业率的情况下实现更好平衡是可能的，但并不保证一定会实现这一目标。鲍威尔表示，美联储致力于从硅谷银行中吸取正确的教训，将加强对类似硅谷银行这样规模的银行的监管和监督。同时，美联储正在密切关注拥有房地产风险敞口的银行，并积极采取行动，试图帮助这类银行应对商业地产集中风险。美联储将与商业地产持有量较高的银行展开合作，并对商业房地产领域风险敞口十分关切。此外，美联储将提出增加对大型银行资本要求的方案。美联储可能将对大型银行的资本要求提高20%，新的资本要求不适用于资产规模低于1000亿美元的银行。联储致力于加强对中型银行的监管，从而确保银行在资金安全和信贷成本之间保持合理平衡。鲍威尔强调，美国联邦预算走上了不可持续的道路，需要对此进行修复。美联储资产负债表上的纸面损失对美联储的货币政策能力没有影响，解决美国通胀问题仍有很长的路要走。鲍威尔表示，旧金山联邦储备银行对硅谷银行的行动不够强有力。针对硅谷银行事件所造成的重大影响，美国需要修复对流动性的监管。在监督硅谷银行的过程中，监管失误不仅仅发生在旧金山联邦储备银行，也发生在美联储委员会。鲍威尔表示，认为美国经济有通往软着陆的道路。美联储目前确实预计会有更多的加息，但需要更多数据支持。美国离利率目标已经很接近了，但谨慎行动是明智之举，不想过度加息对市场造成反向作用。提及近期火热的美国劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示，劳动参与率上升超过预期。美联储将尽可能少地对劳动力市场和经济造成损害。理想情况下，大多数劳动力市场的放松将以其他方式出现，不会导致失业。随着失业率的小幅增加，通胀有望继续下降。预计失业率将会进一步上升一点。仍然看到存在一种在不造成大规模失业的情况下实现通胀缓解的途径。鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场将逐渐降温，通胀将缓解；委员会的绝大多数成员认为今年年底前还会有两次加息；上周的暂停加息决定是为了今后更慢地前进；美联储目前已接近需要达到的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190248855609608,"gmtCreate":1687473207431,"gmtModify":1687473210898,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190248855609608","repostId":"2345757673","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2345757673","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687444562,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2345757673?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 22:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, US stocks will face difficulties in the second half of this year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345757673","media":"智通财经","summary":"摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief Global Market Strategist Marko Kolanovic said that U.S. stocks will struggle in the second half of this year as the lagged impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening of monetary policy catches up with economic growth.</p><p>Although the rebound in U.S. stocks so far this year has not been consistent with Marko Kolanovic's bearish forecast, he reiterated his defensive view and warned that factors such as a deteriorating business environment and slowing consumer demand indicate that an impending economic recession could hinder the rebound in U.S. stocks this year.</p><p>Marko Kolanovic said in a report on Thursday, \"In the stock market, the Federal Reserve did not preemptively shift to an accommodative policy, but instead hinted at two more rate hike at the end of the year. We expect a more challenging macroeconomic environment for US stocks in the second half of the year, with consumption trends softening while the stock market undergoes a significant revaluation.\" He warned that the weakening of multiple expansions and pricing power makes the risk-reward prospects of US stocks unattractive. He added that another worrying factor is that \"investors are becoming increasingly complacent\" ahead of a potential economic recession, and that \"in short, the risk of another unknown risk resurfacing is high.\"</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/465325619ef8760a38cb1ef975f06532\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"/></p><p>Divisions on Wall Street regarding the outlook for U.S. stocks are intensifying. Besides Marko Kolanovic, well-known Wall Street short sellers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Michael Wilson maintains his bearish view on the U.S. stock market and further emphasizes in a recent report that the decline in corporate earnings will continue. Michael Hartnett, a Bank of America strategist and one of Wall Street's most accurate predictors since last year, also remains bearish on U.S. stocks. He believes that the logic behind the rise in US stocks is untenable, and the recent \"fear of a recession in the first quarter\" is turning into \"greed for blondes in the second quarter\".</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin is optimistic about the future trend of U.S. stocks. David Kostin stated that the recent rally in the S&P 500 is expected to extend beyond technology stocks because \"the market will conduct a broader valuation reassessment of technology stocks after the previous significant gains narrowed considerably.\" David Kostin provided two logical support for the logic that US stocks will continue to rise. In addition to the reduced probability of economic recession bringing strong upward momentum to US stocks, another reason is that the widespread adoption of AI provides important support for corporate profit growth.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief strategist at Bank of America and one of the most pessimistic analysts on Wall Street, has also reversed her previous bearish view on US stocks, saying that the bear market that has plagued US stocks has officially ended and there is still room for further rebound in the future. Savita Subramanian's analysis shows that data since the 1950s shows that 92% of the time, the S&P 500 has rebounded by more than 20% and then continued its upward momentum for 12 months.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, US stocks will face difficulties in the second half of this year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, US stocks will face difficulties in the second half of this year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 22:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief Global Market Strategist Marko Kolanovic said that U.S. stocks will struggle in the second half of this year as the lagged impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening of monetary policy catches up with economic growth.</p><p>Although the rebound in U.S. stocks so far this year has not been consistent with Marko Kolanovic's bearish forecast, he reiterated his defensive view and warned that factors such as a deteriorating business environment and slowing consumer demand indicate that an impending economic recession could hinder the rebound in U.S. stocks this year.</p><p>Marko Kolanovic said in a report on Thursday, \"In the stock market, the Federal Reserve did not preemptively shift to an accommodative policy, but instead hinted at two more rate hike at the end of the year. We expect a more challenging macroeconomic environment for US stocks in the second half of the year, with consumption trends softening while the stock market undergoes a significant revaluation.\" He warned that the weakening of multiple expansions and pricing power makes the risk-reward prospects of US stocks unattractive. He added that another worrying factor is that \"investors are becoming increasingly complacent\" ahead of a potential economic recession, and that \"in short, the risk of another unknown risk resurfacing is high.\"</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/465325619ef8760a38cb1ef975f06532\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"/></p><p>Divisions on Wall Street regarding the outlook for U.S. stocks are intensifying. Besides Marko Kolanovic, well-known Wall Street short sellers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Michael Wilson maintains his bearish view on the U.S. stock market and further emphasizes in a recent report that the decline in corporate earnings will continue. Michael Hartnett, a Bank of America strategist and one of Wall Street's most accurate predictors since last year, also remains bearish on U.S. stocks. He believes that the logic behind the rise in US stocks is untenable, and the recent \"fear of a recession in the first quarter\" is turning into \"greed for blondes in the second quarter\".</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin is optimistic about the future trend of U.S. stocks. David Kostin stated that the recent rally in the S&P 500 is expected to extend beyond technology stocks because \"the market will conduct a broader valuation reassessment of technology stocks after the previous significant gains narrowed considerably.\" David Kostin provided two logical support for the logic that US stocks will continue to rise. In addition to the reduced probability of economic recession bringing strong upward momentum to US stocks, another reason is that the widespread adoption of AI provides important support for corporate profit growth.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief strategist at Bank of America and one of the most pessimistic analysts on Wall Street, has also reversed her previous bearish view on US stocks, saying that the bear market that has plagued US stocks has officially ended and there is still room for further rebound in the future. Savita Subramanian's analysis shows that data since the 1950s shows that 92% of the time, the S&P 500 has rebounded by more than 20% and then continued its upward momentum for 12 months.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/949520.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/949520.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2345757673","content_text":"摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovic的看跌预测并不一致，但他仍重申了其防御观点，并警告称，商业环境恶化和消费者需求放缓等因素表明，经济衰退即将到来，可能会阻碍美股今年的反弹。Marko Kolanovic周四在一份报告中表示：“在股市方面，美联储没有先发制人地转向宽松政策，而是暗示年底还会再加息两次。我们预计下半年美股将面临更具挑战性的宏观背景，在股市大幅重估的同时，消费趋势将趋软。”他警告称，多重扩张和定价能力的削弱使得美股的风险回报缺乏吸引力。他补充称，另一个令人担忧的因素是，在潜在的经济衰退到来之前，“投资者日益自满”，“简而言之，另一个未知的风险重新浮出水面的风险很高”。华尔街对美股前景的观点分歧正在加剧。除了Marko Kolanovic之外，华尔街知名空头、摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson坚持其看空美股大盘的观点，并在近期的报告中进一步强调企业盈利衰退将持续的观点。去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美银策略分析师Michael Hartnett也坚持看空美股。他认为，美股上涨的逻辑站不住，最近“对第一季度经济衰退的恐惧”正在转变为“对第二季度金发姑娘的贪婪”。不过，高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin则对美股未来走势持乐观态度。David Kostin表示，标普500指数近期的这一涨势预计将扩大到科技股以外，因为“之前大幅涨幅大幅收窄之后，市场将对科技股进行更广泛的估值重估”。对于美股后续仍将上涨的逻辑，David Kostin给出了两点逻辑支撑，除了经济衰退概率缩小给美股带来强劲的上涨动力之外，另一个理由是AI全面普及为企业利润增速提供重要支持。作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一的美国银行首席策略分析师Savita Subramanian也一改此前看空美股的说法，称困扰美股的熊市已经正式结束，未来还有继续反弹的空间。Savita Subramanian的分析显示，自1950年代以来的数据显示，在92%的时间里，标普500指数在实现超过20%的反弹后，在12个月内延续了上涨势头。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".DJI":1,"QLD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"JPM":1,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QID":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190248695894264,"gmtCreate":1687473161227,"gmtModify":1687473164766,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190248695894264","repostId":"2345500717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2345500717","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1687446683,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2345500717?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 23:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street couldn't sit still! New US banking regulations may be tougher than expected.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345500717","media":"金十数据","summary":"据六名知情人士透露，美国银行业正推动软化一项提高银行资本金要求的重大监管提案，担心该提案可能过于繁重，尤其是对仍未从3月银行业危机中恢复过来的银行而言。以美联储为首的银行监管机构正在敲定一项提案，该提","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to six people familiar with the matter, the U.S. banking industry is pushing to soften a major regulatory proposal to raise bank capital requirements.<strong>There are concerns that the proposal might be too burdensome, especially for banks still recovering from the March banking crisis.</strong>。</p><p>Banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, are finalizing a proposal that would implement international capital standards agreed upon by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision after the 2007-2009 financial crisis.</p><p>Bankers are particularly concerned about one proposal in the draft, namely<strong>Higher capital charges on non-interest income</strong>。 Non-interest income such as fees charged by banks for credit card or investment banking services.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the requirement was part of a package agreement reached by the Basel Committee in 2017. But industry insiders say,<strong>This exaggerates the risks faced by banks with a high proportion of non-interest income.</strong>And hopes that U.S. regulators will relax the requirements.</p><p>Three people familiar with the matter said the banking industry is urging regulators to set a cap on the proportion of assets that such fees would apply, but it is unclear whether regulators will do so.</p><p>An industry insider pointed out that in recent years,<strong>Non-interest service income has always been a focus of many banks' growth strategies.</strong></p><p>According to a 2022 blog post by the Bank of Washington Policy Institute,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>and UBS,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Both banks and Barclays' U.S. subsidiaries are banks with a high proportion of non-interest income.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>And Morgan Stanley declined to comment on the matter. UBS and American Express also did not immediately comment.</p><p>On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that it is crucial for banks to have strong capital, but regulators must be mindful of the trade-offs to avoid challenging their businesses.</p><p><h2><span><span>Unexpectedly severe</span>Is regulation coming? Wall Street was trembling!</span></h2>Although the Basel Accord was reached several years ago, the United States did not begin drafting regulatory legislation to comply with the agreement until after the banking crisis erupted this year. During this crisis, a deposit run led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and two other banks.</p><p>The proposal is the first major rule spearheaded by Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision. Barr has launched a comprehensive review of capital rules and is expected to take tough measures against Wall Street.</p><p>Isaac Boltansky, head of policy research at brokerage firm BTIG, said, \"The benchmark assumption has shifted to...\"<strong>The level of toughness will far exceed anyone's expectations at the end of last year.</strong>”。</p><p>Banking executives argue that bank failures were caused by mismanagement and liquidity problems, and that the entire system was already well-capitalized.</p><p>Three sources said,<strong>The proposal is also expected to apply stricter capital rules to smaller banks with assets exceeding $100 billion, including some that have encountered liquidity problems this year.</strong></p><p>Bankers say that increasing capital requirements now could be counterproductive, putting pressure on the banking sector and damaging credit conditions, given investor unease about the health of the industry and the overall economy.</p><p>Two sources familiar with the matter said that the regulatory agencies<strong>Republican officials have expressed similar concerns</strong>On Wednesday, Republican lawmakers also raised concerns about capital rules with Powell.</p><p>Kevin Fromer, CEO of the Financial Services Forum, said, \"In times of uncertainty, it is extremely important for regulators to pay attention to economic costs.\"<strong>\"Raising capital requirements on already well-capitalized institutions is not in the interest of the U.S. economy.\"</strong>The forum's members include the eight largest banks in the United States.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is working with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to draft new regulatory rules. Five people familiar with the matter said regulators had hoped to release the proposal this month, but staff are still drafting it.<strong>The timetable has been postponed to late July.</strong>。 Both the OCC and the FDIC declined to comment.</p><p>U.S. Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu told reporters last week that banks are \"not ashamed to share their concerns\" and that regulators are weighing the risks.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street couldn't sit still! New US banking regulations may be tougher than expected.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street couldn't sit still! New US banking regulations may be tougher than expected.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 23:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to six people familiar with the matter, the U.S. banking industry is pushing to soften a major regulatory proposal to raise bank capital requirements.<strong>There are concerns that the proposal might be too burdensome, especially for banks still recovering from the March banking crisis.</strong>。</p><p>Banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, are finalizing a proposal that would implement international capital standards agreed upon by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision after the 2007-2009 financial crisis.</p><p>Bankers are particularly concerned about one proposal in the draft, namely<strong>Higher capital charges on non-interest income</strong>。 Non-interest income such as fees charged by banks for credit card or investment banking services.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the requirement was part of a package agreement reached by the Basel Committee in 2017. But industry insiders say,<strong>This exaggerates the risks faced by banks with a high proportion of non-interest income.</strong>And hopes that U.S. regulators will relax the requirements.</p><p>Three people familiar with the matter said the banking industry is urging regulators to set a cap on the proportion of assets that such fees would apply, but it is unclear whether regulators will do so.</p><p>An industry insider pointed out that in recent years,<strong>Non-interest service income has always been a focus of many banks' growth strategies.</strong></p><p>According to a 2022 blog post by the Bank of Washington Policy Institute,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>and UBS,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Both banks and Barclays' U.S. subsidiaries are banks with a high proportion of non-interest income.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>And Morgan Stanley declined to comment on the matter. UBS and American Express also did not immediately comment.</p><p>On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that it is crucial for banks to have strong capital, but regulators must be mindful of the trade-offs to avoid challenging their businesses.</p><p><h2><span><span>Unexpectedly severe</span>Is regulation coming? Wall Street was trembling!</span></h2>Although the Basel Accord was reached several years ago, the United States did not begin drafting regulatory legislation to comply with the agreement until after the banking crisis erupted this year. During this crisis, a deposit run led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and two other banks.</p><p>The proposal is the first major rule spearheaded by Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision. Barr has launched a comprehensive review of capital rules and is expected to take tough measures against Wall Street.</p><p>Isaac Boltansky, head of policy research at brokerage firm BTIG, said, \"The benchmark assumption has shifted to...\"<strong>The level of toughness will far exceed anyone's expectations at the end of last year.</strong>”。</p><p>Banking executives argue that bank failures were caused by mismanagement and liquidity problems, and that the entire system was already well-capitalized.</p><p>Three sources said,<strong>The proposal is also expected to apply stricter capital rules to smaller banks with assets exceeding $100 billion, including some that have encountered liquidity problems this year.</strong></p><p>Bankers say that increasing capital requirements now could be counterproductive, putting pressure on the banking sector and damaging credit conditions, given investor unease about the health of the industry and the overall economy.</p><p>Two sources familiar with the matter said that the regulatory agencies<strong>Republican officials have expressed similar concerns</strong>On Wednesday, Republican lawmakers also raised concerns about capital rules with Powell.</p><p>Kevin Fromer, CEO of the Financial Services Forum, said, \"In times of uncertainty, it is extremely important for regulators to pay attention to economic costs.\"<strong>\"Raising capital requirements on already well-capitalized institutions is not in the interest of the U.S. economy.\"</strong>The forum's members include the eight largest banks in the United States.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is working with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to draft new regulatory rules. Five people familiar with the matter said regulators had hoped to release the proposal this month, but staff are still drafting it.<strong>The timetable has been postponed to late July.</strong>。 Both the OCC and the FDIC declined to comment.</p><p>U.S. Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu told reporters last week that banks are \"not ashamed to share their concerns\" and that regulators are weighing the risks.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115509&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f4bf2aa1b8831fa8d83e8683b5b2b6","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OCC":"Optical Cable Corporation","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4020":"通信设备","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115509&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2345500717","content_text":"据六名知情人士透露，美国银行业正推动软化一项提高银行资本金要求的重大监管提案，担心该提案可能过于繁重，尤其是对仍未从3月银行业危机中恢复过来的银行而言。以美联储为首的银行监管机构正在敲定一项提案，该提案将实施巴塞尔银行监管委员会在2007-2009年金融危机后达成的国际资本标准。银行家们尤其担心的是草案中的一项提议，即对非利息收入征收更高的资本费用。非利息收入比如银行对信用卡或投资银行服务收取的费用。知情人士称，这项要求是巴塞尔委员会于2017年达成的一揽子协议的一部分。但业内表示，这夸大了非利息收入占比较高的银行面临的风险，并希望美国监管机构能放松要求。三位知情人士表示，银行业正敦促监管机构对此类收费适用的资产比例设定上限，但尚不清楚监管机构是否会采取这种做法。一位业内人士指出，近年来，非利息服务收入一直是许多银行增长战略的重点。根据华盛顿银行政策研究所2022年的一篇博客，美国运通、摩根士丹利以及瑞银、德意志银行和巴克莱的美国子公司均属于非利息收入占比很高的银行。巴克莱银行、德意志银行和摩根士丹利拒绝就此事置评。瑞银和美国运通也没有立即发表评论。周三，美联储主席鲍威尔告诉国会，银行拥有雄厚的资本至关重要，但监管机构必须注意权衡，以避免银行的业务受到挑战。超预期严厉的监管要来了？华尔街瑟瑟发抖！虽然巴塞尔协议早在几年前就已达成，但直到今年银行业危机爆发后，美国才开始起草监管法案以遵守该协议。在这场危机中，存款挤兑导致硅谷银行和另外两家银行倒闭。该提案是美联储负责监管的副主席巴尔牵头制定的首条重大规则。巴尔已启动了对资本规则的全面评估，预计将对华尔街采取严厉措施。经纪公司BTIG政策研究主管艾萨克•博尔坦斯基（Isaac Boltansky）表示，“基准假设已经转变为，该提案的强硬程度将远远超出去年年底时任何人的预期”。银行业高管辨称，银行倒闭是由管理不善和流动性问题造成的，而且整个系统的资本已经充足。三名消息人士称，该提案预计还将让更严格的资本规则适用于资产超过1000亿美元的小型银行，其中包括一些今年遇到流动性问题的银行。银行家表示，鉴于投资者对该行业和整体经济的健康状况感到不安，现在增加资本金要求可能会适得其反，给银行业带来压力并损害信贷状况。两位知情人士说，监管机构中的共和党官员也表达了类似的担忧，周三共和党议员同样向鲍威尔提出了对资本规则的担忧。金融服务论坛首席执行官凯文·弗罗默（Kevin Fromer）表示，“在充满不确定性的时期，各监管机构要注意经济成本，这一点极其重要”，“对已经资本充足的机构提高资本金要求，不符合美国经济的利益”。该论坛的成员包括美国最大的八家银行。美联储正在与货币监理署（OCC）和联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）一起起草监管新规。五位知情人士表示，监管机构原本希望本月公布该提案，但工作人员仍在起草草案，时间表已推迟到7月下旬。OCC和FDIC都拒绝置评。美国货币代理主计长迈克尔·许（Michael Hsu）上周对记者表示，银行“并不羞于分享他们的担忧”，监管机构正在权衡风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":0.65,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":0.65,"UPRO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"OCC":1,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":0.65,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190248901304496,"gmtCreate":1687473141791,"gmtModify":1687473145111,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190248901304496","repostId":"1194491376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194491376","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687447307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194491376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 23:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece\": Powell emphasizes that interest rates may be raised again in the coming months.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194491376","media":"新浪财经","summary":"“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos撰文称，鲍威尔今日表示上周之所以没有提高利率，是因为美联储想要减缓其有史以来最快的加息步伐。但他强调，在未来几个月内可能会再次提高利率，且美联储内部绝大多数成","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Nick Timiraos, the \"mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve,\" wrote that Powell said today that the reason he did not raise interest rates last week was because the Fed wanted to slow its fastest-ever pace of rate hike.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, he emphasized that interest rates may be raised again in the coming months, and that the vast majority of members within the Federal Reserve believe there is still room for rate hikes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve officials now believe that their past rate hike practices, coupled with recent pressures on the banking sector, could ultimately lead to a more severe economic slowdown than expected, and they are trying to balance this risk. They also face the risk that the economy may be more resilient than expected, and that high inflation will require them to raise interest rates higher than previously expected.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece\": Powell emphasizes that interest rates may be raised again in the coming months.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece\": Powell emphasizes that interest rates may be raised again in the coming months.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 23:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Nick Timiraos, the \"mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve,\" wrote that Powell said today that the reason he did not raise interest rates last week was because the Fed wanted to slow its fastest-ever pace of rate hike.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, he emphasized that interest rates may be raised again in the coming months, and that the vast majority of members within the Federal Reserve believe there is still room for rate hikes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve officials now believe that their past rate hike practices, coupled with recent pressures on the banking sector, could ultimately lead to a more severe economic slowdown than expected, and they are trying to balance this risk. They also face the risk that the economy may be more resilient than expected, and that high inflation will require them to raise interest rates higher than previously expected.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-06-22/doc-imyyevmm0024657.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-06-22/doc-imyyevmm0024657.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194491376","content_text":"“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos撰文称，鲍威尔今日表示上周之所以没有提高利率，是因为美联储想要减缓其有史以来最快的加息步伐。但他强调，在未来几个月内可能会再次提高利率，且美联储内部绝大多数成员都认为利率仍有上调空间。美联储官员目前认为，他们过去加息的做法，加上最近银行业面临的压力，最终可能造成比预期更为严重的经济放缓，他们试图平衡这一风险。同时他们还面临经济可能比预期更具有弹性，以及通胀率过高需要他们将利率提高得比之前预期更高所带来的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190249367875712,"gmtCreate":1687473122351,"gmtModify":1687473125887,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190249367875712","repostId":"1133142033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133142033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687447997,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133142033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"At the cost of destroying employment? POWELL: Two more rate hike would be appropriate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133142033","media":"金十数据","summary":"尽管议员质疑美联储抗通胀可能破坏就业，但鲍威尔极力为进一步紧缩的立场辩护，此前又一鹰派现身支持.......周四，美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会，发言稿与周三的证词一模一样。在问答环节","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Despite lawmakers questioning whether the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation could damage jobs, Powell strongly defended his stance on further tightening, after another hawk emerged in support...</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee, and his remarks were exactly the same as his testimony on Wednesday. During the Q&A session,<strong>Powell defended the need for further rate hike, despite the potential impact on employment.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, questioned that the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation could lead to a disproportionate loss of jobs for racial and ethnic minorities. \"Where I live, what the Federal Reserve says is 'to calm down ordinary people is to lay off employees.'\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Powell stated that working-class families will be most directly and rapidly affected by inflation. But he added that Federal Reserve officials currently believe that \"if the economy performs as expected,\"<strong>rate hike again this year would be appropriate, and perhaps rate hike twice more.</strong>。”</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to him, in the committee<strong>The vast majority of people believe that interest rates still have some room to rise.</strong>。 Although inflation declined, it was mainly due to lower energy and food prices, rather than monetary policy (which played a role). He expects the unemployment rate to rise further, thus helping to slow inflation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lawmakers also questioned Powell on banking issues. He acknowledged that the Federal Reserve needs to strengthen its regulatory and oversight practices.<strong>Capital requirements for large banks may be increased by 20%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier that day, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that the Fed needs to further raise interest rates to reduce inflation, which means she has joined the ranks of hawks.<strong>Hopefully, rate hike will resume in due course after keeping interest rates unchanged last week.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In remarks prepared for a Federal Reserve listening event in Cleveland on Thursday, Bowman said:</p><p><strong>\"I support the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision last week to keep the Federal Funds rate target range unchanged and continue to reduce the Fed's securities holdings. However, I believe that further increases in policy interest rates are necessary over time to bring inflation down to the target level.\"</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bowman reiterated Powell's message on Capitol Hill this week. He told the House Finance Committee on Wednesday that policymakers expect to need to continue raising interest rates to slow U.S. economic growth and curb price pressures.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently, Federal Reserve officials are beginning to consider the best way to cool inflation.<strong>Generate more disagreements</strong>。 Although inflation is slowing, it is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Bostic said Wednesday that he supports keeping interest rates steady for the rest of the year, giving inflation time to react to past rate hike actions. Bowman recently stated that further increases in borrowing costs may be needed to reduce core inflation, an indicator that has remained high. She said:</p><p><strong>\"While tight monetary policy has had some impact on economic activity and inflation so far, we have seen core inflation remain largely stable since the fall of 2022. I expect we will need to raise interest rates further to achieve a sufficiently tight monetary policy stance to effectively and sustainably reduce inflation.\"</strong></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>At the cost of destroying employment? POWELL: Two more rate hike would be appropriate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAt the cost of destroying employment? POWELL: Two more rate hike would be appropriate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 23:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Despite lawmakers questioning whether the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation could damage jobs, Powell strongly defended his stance on further tightening, after another hawk emerged in support...</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee, and his remarks were exactly the same as his testimony on Wednesday. During the Q&A session,<strong>Powell defended the need for further rate hike, despite the potential impact on employment.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, questioned that the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation could lead to a disproportionate loss of jobs for racial and ethnic minorities. \"Where I live, what the Federal Reserve says is 'to calm down ordinary people is to lay off employees.'\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Powell stated that working-class families will be most directly and rapidly affected by inflation. But he added that Federal Reserve officials currently believe that \"if the economy performs as expected,\"<strong>rate hike again this year would be appropriate, and perhaps rate hike twice more.</strong>。”</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to him, in the committee<strong>The vast majority of people believe that interest rates still have some room to rise.</strong>。 Although inflation declined, it was mainly due to lower energy and food prices, rather than monetary policy (which played a role). He expects the unemployment rate to rise further, thus helping to slow inflation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lawmakers also questioned Powell on banking issues. He acknowledged that the Federal Reserve needs to strengthen its regulatory and oversight practices.<strong>Capital requirements for large banks may be increased by 20%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier that day, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that the Fed needs to further raise interest rates to reduce inflation, which means she has joined the ranks of hawks.<strong>Hopefully, rate hike will resume in due course after keeping interest rates unchanged last week.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In remarks prepared for a Federal Reserve listening event in Cleveland on Thursday, Bowman said:</p><p><strong>\"I support the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision last week to keep the Federal Funds rate target range unchanged and continue to reduce the Fed's securities holdings. However, I believe that further increases in policy interest rates are necessary over time to bring inflation down to the target level.\"</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bowman reiterated Powell's message on Capitol Hill this week. He told the House Finance Committee on Wednesday that policymakers expect to need to continue raising interest rates to slow U.S. economic growth and curb price pressures.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently, Federal Reserve officials are beginning to consider the best way to cool inflation.<strong>Generate more disagreements</strong>。 Although inflation is slowing, it is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Bostic said Wednesday that he supports keeping interest rates steady for the rest of the year, giving inflation time to react to past rate hike actions. Bowman recently stated that further increases in borrowing costs may be needed to reduce core inflation, an indicator that has remained high. She said:</p><p><strong>\"While tight monetary policy has had some impact on economic activity and inflation so far, we have seen core inflation remain largely stable since the fall of 2022. I expect we will need to raise interest rates further to achieve a sufficiently tight monetary policy stance to effectively and sustainably reduce inflation.\"</strong></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/115510\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/115510","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133142033","content_text":"尽管议员质疑美联储抗通胀可能破坏就业，但鲍威尔极力为进一步紧缩的立场辩护，此前又一鹰派现身支持.......周四，美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会，发言稿与周三的证词一模一样。在问答环节，鲍威尔为进一步加息的必要性进行了辩护，尽管这可能对就业产生影响。俄亥俄州民主党参议员、参议院银行委员会主席谢罗德·布朗则质疑道，美联储控制通胀的努力有可能导致少数种族和少数族裔不成比例地失去工作机会。“在我居住的地方，美联储所说的‘让普通人冷静下来就是裁员’。鲍威尔对此表示，工薪家庭将最直接、最迅速地受到通胀的影响。但他补充说，美联储官员目前认为，“如果经济表现如预期，今年再次加息将是合适的，或许还会加息两次。”据其称，委员会中绝大多数人认为利率还有一点上升空间。虽然通胀出现下降，但主要是由于能源和食品价格出现了下降，而非货币政策（起了作用）。他预计失业率将会进一步上升一点，从而帮助减缓通胀。立法者还就银行业问题向鲍威尔提出质询。他承认，美联储需要加强其监管和监督实践，可能将对大型银行的资本要求提高20%。同日早些时候，美联储理事鲍曼表示，美联储需要进一步提高利率以降低通胀，这意味着她加入了鹰派的行列，希望在上周维持利率不变后适时恢复加息。鲍曼周四在为克利夫兰举行的美联储聆听活动准备的讲话中表示：“我支持联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上周保持联邦基金利率目标区间不变、并继续削减美联储证券持有量的决定，然而，我认为，随着时间的推移，有必要进一步上调政策利率，以将通胀降至目标水平。”鲍曼重申了鲍威尔本周在国会山传达的信息。他周三在众议院金融委员会发表讲话时表示，政策制定者预计需要继续提高利率，以减缓美国经济增长并遏制价格压力。 当前，美联储官员们开始在冷却通胀的最佳途径上产生更多分歧。虽然通胀正在放缓，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长博斯蒂克周三表示，他支持在今年剩余时间内保持利率稳定，让通胀有时间对过去的加息行动做出反应。而鲍曼最新表示，可能需要进一步提高借贷成本来降低核心通胀，该指标一直居高不下。她说：“尽管迄今为止，紧缩的货币政策对经济活动和通胀产生了一些影响，但我们看到核心通胀自2022年秋季以来基本处于平稳状态。我预计，我们将需要进一步提高利率，以实现足够严格的货币政策立场，从而有效而持久地降低通胀。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188140677566728,"gmtCreate":1686958515526,"gmtModify":1686958519289,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188140677566728","repostId":"2343195366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2343195366","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1686924939,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2343195366?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 22:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It would take another 1% rate hike to cause US stocks to fall! Wells Fargo: AI giants will usher in an \"Internet age-style\" boom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2343195366","media":"智通财经网","summary":"富国银行称，除非美联储再至少加息一个百分点，否则整体美股市场仍有上涨空间，可能出现类似于互联网泡沫时代的飙升。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>It is stated that unless the Federal Reserve rate hike by at least another percentage point, the overall US stock market still has room to rise, potentially experiencing a surge similar to the dot-com bubble era.</p><p>In a report on Friday, Wells Fargo strategist Chris Harvey wrote: “After the S&P 500 not only broke through our year-end target of 4,200 points, but also our ‘soft landing’ target of 4,420 points (with a 20% probability), we are thinking about the 1999/2000 scenario. This means looking for an event turning point, which is a recession.”</p><p>Harvey stated, \"We believe that the Fed's pause on rate hike will bring hyperscale AI companies to the 'next level.' If the situation in 1999/2000 is any guide, 'new economy stocks' will not recess until the economy and 'old economy stocks' recess, which may not happen until the Fed raises interest rates above 6%.\"</p><p>Harvey added, \"We believe the Fed's actions have supported a moderate rebound in mega-cap stocks, whose valuations are not outrageous compared to the S&P 500 (and compared to 1999). However, recent overbought technical indicators suggest that mega-cap stocks will pause their rise/pullback, while small and mid-cap stocks will catch up.\"</p><p>So far this year, the S&P 500 has risen 16%. Among the beneficiaries of massive AI,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The stock price rose by nearly 200% during the same period.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up nearly 50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 45%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet rose 40%; At the same time, other tech giants also rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 48%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Goal</a>It rose by more than 125%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose by more than 135%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It would take another 1% rate hike to cause US stocks to fall! Wells Fargo: AI giants will usher in an \"Internet age-style\" boom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt would take another 1% rate hike to cause US stocks to fall! Wells Fargo: AI giants will usher in an \"Internet age-style\" boom\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-16 22:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>It is stated that unless the Federal Reserve rate hike by at least another percentage point, the overall US stock market still has room to rise, potentially experiencing a surge similar to the dot-com bubble era.</p><p>In a report on Friday, Wells Fargo strategist Chris Harvey wrote: “After the S&P 500 not only broke through our year-end target of 4,200 points, but also our ‘soft landing’ target of 4,420 points (with a 20% probability), we are thinking about the 1999/2000 scenario. This means looking for an event turning point, which is a recession.”</p><p>Harvey stated, \"We believe that the Fed's pause on rate hike will bring hyperscale AI companies to the 'next level.' If the situation in 1999/2000 is any guide, 'new economy stocks' will not recess until the economy and 'old economy stocks' recess, which may not happen until the Fed raises interest rates above 6%.\"</p><p>Harvey added, \"We believe the Fed's actions have supported a moderate rebound in mega-cap stocks, whose valuations are not outrageous compared to the S&P 500 (and compared to 1999). However, recent overbought technical indicators suggest that mega-cap stocks will pause their rise/pullback, while small and mid-cap stocks will catch up.\"</p><p>So far this year, the S&P 500 has risen 16%. Among the beneficiaries of massive AI,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The stock price rose by nearly 200% during the same period.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up nearly 50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 45%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet rose 40%; At the same time, other tech giants also rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 48%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Goal</a>It rose by more than 125%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose by more than 135%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/947227.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","BK4538":"云计算","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4576":"AR","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/947227.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2343195366","content_text":"富国银行称，除非美联储再至少加息一个百分点，否则整体美股市场仍有上涨空间，可能出现类似于互联网泡沫时代的飙升。富国银行策略师Chris Harvey在周五的一份报告中写道:“在标普500指数不仅突破了我们设定的4200点年终目标，而且还突破了我们设定的4420点的‘软着陆’目标(可能性为20%)之后，我们正在想到了1999/2000年的剧本。这意味着寻找事件拐点，那个事件就是经济衰退。”Harvey表示:“我们认为美联储暂停加息将让超大规模的AI公司进入‘下一个水平’。如果1999/2000年的情况可以作为参考的话，‘新经济股票’不会衰退，直到经济和‘旧经济股票’衰退，而这可能要等到美联储将利率提高到6%以上才会发生。”Harvey补充称：“我们认为，美联储的行动支持了超级大盘股的适中反弹，与标普500指数(以及与1999年相比)相比，它们的估值并不离谱。不过，近期超买技术面暗示超级大盘股将暂停上涨/回调，而中小盘股将迎头赶上。”今年迄今，标普500指数今年上涨了16%。在超大规模的AI受益者中，英伟达股价同期上涨了近200%。苹果上涨近50%，微软上涨45%，谷歌母公司Alphabet上涨40%;与此同时，其他科技巨头也跟着上涨，亚马逊上涨了48%，Meta上涨了125%以上，特斯拉上涨了135%以上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IVV":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"GOOGL":0.65,"SH":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188141469691912,"gmtCreate":1686958496624,"gmtModify":1686958500149,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188141469691912","repostId":"1176607777","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176607777","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"欢迎收听雷帝触网，雷帝触网是中国最多产的互联网科技自媒体，内容中立，快、准、狠，其由资深媒体人雷建平创办，雷建平是今日头条签约作家，也入驻了一点资讯、搜狐、网易等平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"雷递","id":"52","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45a6cbcc8ec48a7a2f52177324d0c16"},"pubTimestamp":1686926256,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176607777?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 22:37","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"J&T Express is aiming for a Hong Kong stock market listing: with annual revenue of US$7.3 billion, its founder Li Jie has connections with Duan Yongping.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176607777","media":"雷递","summary":"极兔正成为中国快递行业的“黑马”。今日晚间，极兔递交招股书，准备在港交所上市。一旦上市，极兔将成继顺丰、京东物流、中通、申通、圆通及百世后，又一家上市的物流企业。年营收73亿美元极兔由OPPO印尼业务","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>J&T Express is becoming a \"dark horse\" in China's express delivery industry. Tonight, J&T Express submitted its prospectus, preparing to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once listed, J&T Express will become another listed logistics company, following SF Express, JD Logistics, ZTO Express, STO Express, YTO Express, and Best Express.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd73f21f46a1282f0e4329c9dbdcf3a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"661\"/></p><p><strong>Annual revenue of $7.3 billion</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653b1ab95aedfd5f4eab3ca73c30a868\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"595\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&T Express was founded in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, in 2015 by Li Jie, the founder of OPPO's Indonesian business. In 2019, J&T Express became the second largest express delivery company in Southeast Asia. In the same year, J&T Express acquired Shanghai Longbang Express, directly obtaining express delivery operation qualifications and a network in China.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a769053435e4f4770862f227b758156d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the prospectus, J&T Express's revenue was US$1.535 billion, US$4.852 billion, and US$7.267 billion in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. The profits for the period were -$664 million, -$6.192 billion, and $1.573 billion, respectively.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6156c10acac896cb1544a492e2a83dc1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1191\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&T Express's adjusted EBITDA for 2020, 2021, and 2022 was -$321 million, -$528 million, and -$204 million, respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Specifically, J&T Express's adjusted EBITDA from Southeast Asia was US$267 million, US$427 million, and US$332 million in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. The company is still in the investment phase in the Chinese market and is operating at a loss, with figures of -$616 million, -$940 million, and -$335 million respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Juniors in the industry are rising to prominence.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The original structure of China's express delivery industry consisted of STO Express, ZTO Express, ZTO Express, Zunda Express, SF Express, and JD Express. However, J&T Express rose to prominence in China in a very short period of time. In just 10 months, J&T's daily order volume exceeded 20 million. To achieve this goal, it will take 16 years for ZTO General Motors, 18 years for Yuan General Motors, 19 years for Yunda Express, and 25 years for Shen General Motors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By June 2022, it was announced at J&T Express's major customer meeting that the average daily business volume across the network had exceeded and stabilized at over 40 million pieces, placing it among the top tier of domestic express delivery companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>J&T Express has captured such a large market share so quickly thanks to several strategies:</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. It has risen rapidly by relying on the existing network systems of OPPO and Vivo.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rumors circulate online that a key reason for J&T Express's early rise was that it won over its express delivery franchisees, focusing on money rather than relationships. Over the past few years, China's express delivery industry has been engaged in a price war that has continuously driven down franchisees' delivery costs, leading to widespread complaints from franchisees.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this time, J&T Express emerged, offering higher delivery fees to encourage franchisees of the \"Tongda Group\" to use J&T Express. In 2020, J&T Express was once collectively \"blocked\" by its peers. On April 6, 2021, the Yiwu Postal Administration issued a warning letter to J&T Express, directly accusing it of \"dumping at low prices\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sources familiar with J&T Express told Leidi.com that J&T Express did not conduct any external investment promotion in the early stages, but it is still very sought after. The reason is that J&T Express relies on the existing network systems of OPPO and Vivo, and a group of people are willing to invest real money to support J&T Express when it returns to China to develop. They recognize J&T Express's commercial and cultural value and believe that J&T Express will definitely succeed. This is the core reason supporting J&T Express's early development.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. Continue making large-scale acquisitions. Despite being a newcomer to the Chinese market, J&T Express is not holding back. In October 2021, Best Inc. and J&T Express jointly announced a strategic cooperation agreement, under which Best Inc. transferred its domestic express delivery business to J&T Express for approximately RMB 6.8 billion (US$1.1 billion).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Best Inc.'s sale of its domestic express delivery business was also out of necessity. Against the backdrop of the ongoing price war in the express delivery industry, Best Inc. has struggled to survive in China and has become the worst express delivery company in the industry. Best Express's order volume was 1.907 billion, 2.275 billion, and 2.301 billion in 2019, 2019, and the second quarter of 2021, respectively. Although it was growing, its market share was 12.2%, 10.7%, and 8.4%, respectively, declining steadily.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, J&T Express values one aspect of Best Express – it is a major express delivery service provider within the Taobao ecosystem. At the time, Best Inc.'s founder, Zhou Shaoning, held 47,790,698 Class C shares, representing 46.4% of the voting rights. Alibaba holds 48,900,357 Class A shares and 94,075,249 Class B shares, carrying 46.7% of the voting rights. In other words, Alibaba has even more influence than Zhou Shaoning.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By acquiring Best Express, J&T Express has gained a foothold in China and officially joined the e-commerce express delivery industry. Industry insiders believe that \"Best Express's last-mile outlets, senior executives, and major customer resources have truly put J&T Express at the card table.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&T Express's acquisition campaign has not stopped. In May 2023, SF Holding transferred its business, Fengwang Holdings, to J&T Express for RMB 1.183 billion. Fengwang Information's revenue in 2022 was 3.275 billion yuan, with a net loss of 747 million yuan; The company reported revenue of 691 million yuan and a net loss of 143 million yuan in the first quarter of 2023.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&T Express can be described as paying to make friends. Today, more than 30 e-commerce platforms, including Taobao, Kuaishou, Douyin, and Dangdang, have reached cooperation agreements with J&T Express. Moreover, all 1,671 franchise outlets covered by Fengwang in 27 provinces and cities across the country will belong to J&T Express in the future.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. The founder has a deep background in BBK.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Li Jie, the founder of J&T Express, is a long-time subordinate of OPPO leader Chen Mingyong and a natural-born sales talent.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to available information, Li Jie was born in Sichuan in 1967 and graduated from Beijing University of Science and Technology. After graduation, he worked in sales under BBK's agency system. He was poached by BBK Electronics due to his outstanding performance.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are rumors online that Duan Yongping greatly admired Li Jie and brought him to BBK. In reality, Chen Mingyong greatly admired him and entrusted Li Jie with important responsibilities. Subsequently, BBK incubated OPPO, Vivo, and Little Genius. Chen Mingyong took the helm of OPPO and also brought Li Jie to OPPO.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Li Jie excelled in sales at OPPO. Subsequently, OPPO wanted to expand its business in Indonesia. Li Jie, who didn't even know English or Indonesian, volunteered to go to Indonesia to expand the market. By 2020, OPPO's market share in Indonesia had reached 27.4%, surpassing Samsung.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since Chen Mingyong is a disciple of Duan Yongping, it can be said that Li Jie and Duan Yongping have a deep connection and are outstanding entrepreneurs who emerged based on BBK's cultural philosophy, marketing and strategic capabilities. However, in the early days of his return to China to start his business at J&T Express, Li Jie and Duan Yongping did not have much interaction.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The mastermind behind it all, Duan Yongping, and his Chinese disciples</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping graduated from the Radio Department of Zhejiang University in 1982. After graduation, he started working in a state-owned enterprise. However, tired of day-to-day life, Duan Yongping then chose to pursue a master's degree in economics at Renmin University. After that, Duan Yongping went south to work at a small electronics factory and became the factory director in less than a year. Duan Yongping discovered a great business opportunity in this process, and the Subor game console was born from this.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping not only transformed Subor from a mess with an annual loss of 2 million yuan into a household name for game consoles. Little Tyrant also hired martial arts superstar Jackie Chan as its spokesperson, and the advertising slogan \"Hoping your son will become a Little Tyrant\" was a household name at the time.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Duan Yongping's proposal for shareholding reform was rejected by the major shareholder. Afterwards, Duan Yongping left, founded BBK, and created a business miracle. At the peak of his career, Duan Yongping fell in love with his junior sister Liu Xin. Under Duan Yongping's constant pursuit, Liu Xin wavered.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Liu Xin proposed to Duan Yongping that as long as Duan Yongping dared to give up everything in China and live with her in the United States, he would be willing to work hand in hand with him for the rest of his life. In the face of career and love, Duan Yongping loves beautiful women rather than the country. Duan Yongping decided to hand over all his domestic industries to his friends and follow Liu Xinyuan to live in the United States.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Subsequently, Duan Yongping split BBK into three companies. Two of them were OPPO, headed by Chen Mingyong, and vivo, headed by Shen Wei. Jin Zhijiang later took over BBK and became the father of the \"little genius\". The three of them, along with Pinduoduo founder Huang Zheng, are known as Duan Yongping's \"four disciples\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Back then, Duan Yongping advised Huang Zheng to join Google, which was not publicly traded at the time, instead of the thriving Microsoft. Duan Yongping said at the time, \"Google looks like a pretty impressive company, worth checking out. It will also be beneficial for your future entrepreneurial endeavors. If you go, you'll stay for at least three years, because you won't be able to really get into an important position or truly understand the company in one or two years.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2006, Duan Yongping bid for Warren Buffett's lunch for $620,000, becoming the first Chinese person to do so. Huang Zheng was among the people he brought along.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198411c20eea7835d410777e415e8387\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Huang Zheng worked at Google for three years, followed Google's IPO, and quickly amassed a million-dollar fortune. In 2007, after three years at Google, Huang Zheng decided to return to China to start his own business. Duan Yongping was also the chairman of BBK, so one of the e-commerce businesses was entrusted to him. Soon after, Ouku.com, spearheaded by Huang Zheng, was launched and is controlled by BBK. Subsequently, Duan Yongping provided Huang Zheng with guidance or assistance to varying degrees throughout his entrepreneurial journey.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Huang Zheng once said, \"Lao Duan has had a great influence on me. Chen Mingyong is my eldest apprentice, Shen Wei is my second apprentice, Jin Zhijiang is my third apprentice, and I can be considered the fourth apprentice of the next generation.\" The three \"senior brothers\" mentioned by Huang Zheng above, Chen Yongming, Shen Wei, and Jin Zhijiang, are the founder of OPPO, the founder of Vivo, and the CEO of BBK. Huang Zheng's first company to start a business after returning to China also received investment from Duan Yongping.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping once said: \"I have been friends with Huang Zheng for more than 10 years. I know him and trust him.\" Huang Zheng is one of the rare and insightful people I know; he focuses on the essence of things.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping has also provided support in Pinduoduo's development, and he is also an angel investor in Pinduoduo. Investing in Pinduoduo also brought Duan Yongping huge returns.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Duan Yongping is no longer in China, his story will always be passed down in the martial arts world.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9edac35a59ad49044b51cb57cc6c470\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"597\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Recently, OPPO has stopped designing chips, stating that in the face of uncertainties in the global economy and mobile phone market, after careful consideration, the company has decided to terminate its ZEKU business. OPPO stated that this was a difficult decision.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping's influence is also behind this decision.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping commented online that among all the businesses that have voluntarily ceased operations in recent years, the only one that felt a survival crisis was BBK selling its first batch of VCDs. At the time, the Sanyo movement used in the product had a problem, and BBK subsequently recalled all 200,000 machines sold. \"That time was really painful.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping pointed out, \"The sooner we correct our mistakes, the better. No matter how big the cost, it is the least cost! This is not the first business we have shut down, nor will it be the last. If anyone asks us why we shut down these businesses, I will have to block them directly.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>J&T Express is aiming for a Hong Kong stock market listing: with annual revenue of US$7.3 billion, its founder Li Jie has connections with Duan Yongping.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJ&T Express is aiming for a Hong Kong stock market listing: with annual revenue of US$7.3 billion, its founder Li Jie has connections with Duan Yongping.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/52\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45a6cbcc8ec48a7a2f52177324d0c16);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">雷递 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-06-16 22:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>J&T Express is becoming a \"dark horse\" in China's express delivery industry. Tonight, J&T Express submitted its prospectus, preparing to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once listed, J&T Express will become another listed logistics company, following SF Express, JD Logistics, ZTO Express, STO Express, YTO Express, and Best Express.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd73f21f46a1282f0e4329c9dbdcf3a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"661\"/></p><p><strong>Annual revenue of $7.3 billion</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653b1ab95aedfd5f4eab3ca73c30a868\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"595\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&T Express was founded in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, in 2015 by Li Jie, the founder of OPPO's Indonesian business. In 2019, J&T Express became the second largest express delivery company in Southeast Asia. In the same year, J&T Express acquired Shanghai Longbang Express, directly obtaining express delivery operation qualifications and a network in China.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a769053435e4f4770862f227b758156d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the prospectus, J&T Express's revenue was US$1.535 billion, US$4.852 billion, and US$7.267 billion in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. The profits for the period were -$664 million, -$6.192 billion, and $1.573 billion, respectively.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6156c10acac896cb1544a492e2a83dc1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1191\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&T Express's adjusted EBITDA for 2020, 2021, and 2022 was -$321 million, -$528 million, and -$204 million, respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Specifically, J&T Express's adjusted EBITDA from Southeast Asia was US$267 million, US$427 million, and US$332 million in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. The company is still in the investment phase in the Chinese market and is operating at a loss, with figures of -$616 million, -$940 million, and -$335 million respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Juniors in the industry are rising to prominence.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The original structure of China's express delivery industry consisted of STO Express, ZTO Express, ZTO Express, Zunda Express, SF Express, and JD Express. However, J&T Express rose to prominence in China in a very short period of time. In just 10 months, J&T's daily order volume exceeded 20 million. To achieve this goal, it will take 16 years for ZTO General Motors, 18 years for Yuan General Motors, 19 years for Yunda Express, and 25 years for Shen General Motors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By June 2022, it was announced at J&T Express's major customer meeting that the average daily business volume across the network had exceeded and stabilized at over 40 million pieces, placing it among the top tier of domestic express delivery companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>J&T Express has captured such a large market share so quickly thanks to several strategies:</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. It has risen rapidly by relying on the existing network systems of OPPO and Vivo.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rumors circulate online that a key reason for J&T Express's early rise was that it won over its express delivery franchisees, focusing on money rather than relationships. Over the past few years, China's express delivery industry has been engaged in a price war that has continuously driven down franchisees' delivery costs, leading to widespread complaints from franchisees.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this time, J&T Express emerged, offering higher delivery fees to encourage franchisees of the \"Tongda Group\" to use J&T Express. In 2020, J&T Express was once collectively \"blocked\" by its peers. On April 6, 2021, the Yiwu Postal Administration issued a warning letter to J&T Express, directly accusing it of \"dumping at low prices\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sources familiar with J&T Express told Leidi.com that J&T Express did not conduct any external investment promotion in the early stages, but it is still very sought after. The reason is that J&T Express relies on the existing network systems of OPPO and Vivo, and a group of people are willing to invest real money to support J&T Express when it returns to China to develop. They recognize J&T Express's commercial and cultural value and believe that J&T Express will definitely succeed. This is the core reason supporting J&T Express's early development.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. Continue making large-scale acquisitions. Despite being a newcomer to the Chinese market, J&T Express is not holding back. In October 2021, Best Inc. and J&T Express jointly announced a strategic cooperation agreement, under which Best Inc. transferred its domestic express delivery business to J&T Express for approximately RMB 6.8 billion (US$1.1 billion).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Best Inc.'s sale of its domestic express delivery business was also out of necessity. Against the backdrop of the ongoing price war in the express delivery industry, Best Inc. has struggled to survive in China and has become the worst express delivery company in the industry. Best Express's order volume was 1.907 billion, 2.275 billion, and 2.301 billion in 2019, 2019, and the second quarter of 2021, respectively. Although it was growing, its market share was 12.2%, 10.7%, and 8.4%, respectively, declining steadily.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, J&T Express values one aspect of Best Express – it is a major express delivery service provider within the Taobao ecosystem. At the time, Best Inc.'s founder, Zhou Shaoning, held 47,790,698 Class C shares, representing 46.4% of the voting rights. Alibaba holds 48,900,357 Class A shares and 94,075,249 Class B shares, carrying 46.7% of the voting rights. In other words, Alibaba has even more influence than Zhou Shaoning.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By acquiring Best Express, J&T Express has gained a foothold in China and officially joined the e-commerce express delivery industry. Industry insiders believe that \"Best Express's last-mile outlets, senior executives, and major customer resources have truly put J&T Express at the card table.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&T Express's acquisition campaign has not stopped. In May 2023, SF Holding transferred its business, Fengwang Holdings, to J&T Express for RMB 1.183 billion. Fengwang Information's revenue in 2022 was 3.275 billion yuan, with a net loss of 747 million yuan; The company reported revenue of 691 million yuan and a net loss of 143 million yuan in the first quarter of 2023.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&T Express can be described as paying to make friends. Today, more than 30 e-commerce platforms, including Taobao, Kuaishou, Douyin, and Dangdang, have reached cooperation agreements with J&T Express. Moreover, all 1,671 franchise outlets covered by Fengwang in 27 provinces and cities across the country will belong to J&T Express in the future.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. The founder has a deep background in BBK.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Li Jie, the founder of J&T Express, is a long-time subordinate of OPPO leader Chen Mingyong and a natural-born sales talent.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to available information, Li Jie was born in Sichuan in 1967 and graduated from Beijing University of Science and Technology. After graduation, he worked in sales under BBK's agency system. He was poached by BBK Electronics due to his outstanding performance.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are rumors online that Duan Yongping greatly admired Li Jie and brought him to BBK. In reality, Chen Mingyong greatly admired him and entrusted Li Jie with important responsibilities. Subsequently, BBK incubated OPPO, Vivo, and Little Genius. Chen Mingyong took the helm of OPPO and also brought Li Jie to OPPO.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Li Jie excelled in sales at OPPO. Subsequently, OPPO wanted to expand its business in Indonesia. Li Jie, who didn't even know English or Indonesian, volunteered to go to Indonesia to expand the market. By 2020, OPPO's market share in Indonesia had reached 27.4%, surpassing Samsung.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since Chen Mingyong is a disciple of Duan Yongping, it can be said that Li Jie and Duan Yongping have a deep connection and are outstanding entrepreneurs who emerged based on BBK's cultural philosophy, marketing and strategic capabilities. However, in the early days of his return to China to start his business at J&T Express, Li Jie and Duan Yongping did not have much interaction.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The mastermind behind it all, Duan Yongping, and his Chinese disciples</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping graduated from the Radio Department of Zhejiang University in 1982. After graduation, he started working in a state-owned enterprise. However, tired of day-to-day life, Duan Yongping then chose to pursue a master's degree in economics at Renmin University. After that, Duan Yongping went south to work at a small electronics factory and became the factory director in less than a year. Duan Yongping discovered a great business opportunity in this process, and the Subor game console was born from this.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping not only transformed Subor from a mess with an annual loss of 2 million yuan into a household name for game consoles. Little Tyrant also hired martial arts superstar Jackie Chan as its spokesperson, and the advertising slogan \"Hoping your son will become a Little Tyrant\" was a household name at the time.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Duan Yongping's proposal for shareholding reform was rejected by the major shareholder. Afterwards, Duan Yongping left, founded BBK, and created a business miracle. At the peak of his career, Duan Yongping fell in love with his junior sister Liu Xin. Under Duan Yongping's constant pursuit, Liu Xin wavered.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Liu Xin proposed to Duan Yongping that as long as Duan Yongping dared to give up everything in China and live with her in the United States, he would be willing to work hand in hand with him for the rest of his life. In the face of career and love, Duan Yongping loves beautiful women rather than the country. Duan Yongping decided to hand over all his domestic industries to his friends and follow Liu Xinyuan to live in the United States.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Subsequently, Duan Yongping split BBK into three companies. Two of them were OPPO, headed by Chen Mingyong, and vivo, headed by Shen Wei. Jin Zhijiang later took over BBK and became the father of the \"little genius\". The three of them, along with Pinduoduo founder Huang Zheng, are known as Duan Yongping's \"four disciples\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Back then, Duan Yongping advised Huang Zheng to join Google, which was not publicly traded at the time, instead of the thriving Microsoft. Duan Yongping said at the time, \"Google looks like a pretty impressive company, worth checking out. It will also be beneficial for your future entrepreneurial endeavors. If you go, you'll stay for at least three years, because you won't be able to really get into an important position or truly understand the company in one or two years.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2006, Duan Yongping bid for Warren Buffett's lunch for $620,000, becoming the first Chinese person to do so. Huang Zheng was among the people he brought along.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198411c20eea7835d410777e415e8387\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Huang Zheng worked at Google for three years, followed Google's IPO, and quickly amassed a million-dollar fortune. In 2007, after three years at Google, Huang Zheng decided to return to China to start his own business. Duan Yongping was also the chairman of BBK, so one of the e-commerce businesses was entrusted to him. Soon after, Ouku.com, spearheaded by Huang Zheng, was launched and is controlled by BBK. Subsequently, Duan Yongping provided Huang Zheng with guidance or assistance to varying degrees throughout his entrepreneurial journey.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Huang Zheng once said, \"Lao Duan has had a great influence on me. Chen Mingyong is my eldest apprentice, Shen Wei is my second apprentice, Jin Zhijiang is my third apprentice, and I can be considered the fourth apprentice of the next generation.\" The three \"senior brothers\" mentioned by Huang Zheng above, Chen Yongming, Shen Wei, and Jin Zhijiang, are the founder of OPPO, the founder of Vivo, and the CEO of BBK. Huang Zheng's first company to start a business after returning to China also received investment from Duan Yongping.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping once said: \"I have been friends with Huang Zheng for more than 10 years. I know him and trust him.\" Huang Zheng is one of the rare and insightful people I know; he focuses on the essence of things.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping has also provided support in Pinduoduo's development, and he is also an angel investor in Pinduoduo. Investing in Pinduoduo also brought Duan Yongping huge returns.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Duan Yongping is no longer in China, his story will always be passed down in the martial arts world.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9edac35a59ad49044b51cb57cc6c470\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"597\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Recently, OPPO has stopped designing chips, stating that in the face of uncertainties in the global economy and mobile phone market, after careful consideration, the company has decided to terminate its ZEKU business. OPPO stated that this was a difficult decision.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping's influence is also behind this decision.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping commented online that among all the businesses that have voluntarily ceased operations in recent years, the only one that felt a survival crisis was BBK selling its first batch of VCDs. At the time, the Sanyo movement used in the product had a problem, and BBK subsequently recalled all 200,000 machines sold. \"That time was really painful.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping pointed out, \"The sooner we correct our mistakes, the better. No matter how big the cost, it is the least cost! This is not the first business we have shut down, nor will it be the last. If anyone asks us why we shut down these businesses, I will have to block them directly.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40dd845f64e42ec14a01fe03bcfb6b6e","relate_stocks":{"01519":"极兔速递-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176607777","content_text":"极兔正成为中国快递行业的“黑马”。今日晚间，极兔递交招股书，准备在港交所上市。一旦上市，极兔将成继顺丰、京东物流、中通、申通、圆通及百世后，又一家上市的物流企业。年营收73亿美元极兔由OPPO印尼业务创始人李杰2015年于印尼首都雅加达创办，2019年，极兔成为东南亚第二大快递公司，同一年，极兔收购上海龙邦快递，在中国直接获得快递经营资质和快递网络。招股书显示，极兔2020年、2021年、2022年营收分别为15.35亿美元、48.52亿美元、72.67亿美元；期内利润分别为-6.64亿美元、-61.92亿美元、15.73亿美元。极兔2020年、2021年、2022年经调整EBITDA分别为-3.21亿美元、-5.28亿美元、-2.04亿美元。具体来看，极兔2020年、2021年、2022年来自东南亚的经调整EBITDA分别为2.67亿美元、4.27亿美元、3.32亿美元；在中国市场仍处于投入期，处于亏损状态，分别为-6.16亿美元、-9.4亿美元、-3.35亿美元。行业后辈 却声势鹊起国内快递行业原本的格局是三通一达，加顺丰和京东快递，但极兔以极短的时间在国内声势鹊起，只用10个月时间，极兔日单量突破2000万。达到这一目标，中通用16年，圆通用18年，韵达用19年，申通用25年。到2022年6月，极兔大客户会上传出，全网日均业务量已经突破且稳定在4000万件以上，跻身国内快递公司第一梯队。极兔这么快占领这么大市场份额，有几板斧：1，依托OPPO、Vivo原有的网络体系快速崛起。网上有传闻称，极兔早期能崛起的重要原因是，策反快递加盟商，谈钱不谈感情。过去几年，中国快递行业连年不断价格战，持续压低加盟商送快递的费用，加盟商们怨声载道。这个时候，极兔横空出世，通过给予更高的派件费用，让“通达系”的加盟商为极兔所用。2020年，极兔一度遭同行集体“封杀”。2021年4月6日，义乌邮政管理局更曾对极兔下发警示函，直指其“低价倾销”行为。熟悉极兔的人士对雷递网表示，极兔早期并没有对外做过招商，依然非常抢手。原因是，极兔依托OPPO、Vivo原有的网络体系，有一帮人愿意在极兔回国发展的时候，愿意拿出真金白银跟着干，认可极兔的商业和文化价值，觉得极兔一定能成，这是支撑极兔早期发展的最核心原因。2，持续大手笔收购。尽管在中国市场初来乍到，但极兔出手并不手软。2021年10月，百世和极兔共同宣布达成战略合作意向，百世集团将其在国内的快递业务以约68亿元（合11亿美元）的价格转让给极兔。百世卖掉国内快递业务，也是出于无奈，在快递行业持续价格战的背景下，百世在国内艰难求生，已经沦为了行业最差快递公司。百世快递在2019年-2021年第二季度单量分别为19.07亿、22.75亿、23.01亿，虽然在增长，但其市场份额分别为12.2%、10.7%、8.4%，一路下滑。不过，百世有一点的价值却为极兔所看重——百世是淘系的主要快递服务商。在当时，百世创始人周韶宁持有47,790,698股C类股，有46.4%的投票权；阿里持有48,900,357股A类股，及94,075,249股B类股，有46.7%的投票权。也就是说，阿里的话语权甚至比周韶宁还大。极兔吞下百世，在中国就有了立足之地，正式加入电商快递的大营。行业人士认为，“百世的末端网点、高管、大客户资源让极兔真正坐上了牌桌。”极兔的收购步伐也并未停止。2023年5月，顺丰控股又将旗下业务丰网控股转让给了极兔，作价11.83亿元。丰网信息2022年营收为32.75亿元，净亏损为7.47亿元；2023年第一季度营收为6.91亿元，净亏损为1.43亿元。极兔可谓是花钱交朋友，如今，淘宝、快手、抖音、当当等30多家电商平台都与极兔达成了合作，且丰网覆盖的全国27个省市，1671个加盟网点，以后全归极兔。3，创始人有很深步步高背景极兔创始人李杰是OPPO掌舵人陈明永多年的老部下，也是一位天生的销售人才。资料显示，李杰1967年出生于四川，毕业于北京科技大学，毕业后在步步高的代理商体系下从事销售工作。因业绩突出，被步步高挖角。网上有传闻称，是段永平非常欣赏李杰，将李杰带到了步步高。实际情况是陈明永非常欣赏他，对李杰委以重任。此后，步步高孵化出了OPPO、Vivo和小天才，陈明永掌舵了OPPO，也把李杰带到OPPO。李杰在OPPO销售业务非常突出。此后，OPPO要到印尼拓展业务，李杰在连英语和印尼语都不会的情况下，主动请缨去了印尼，开拓市场，到2020年OPPO在印尼的市场份额达到27.4%，超过三星。由于陈明永是段永平的门徒，可以说，李杰与段永平是有很深渊源的，也是依托步步高文化理念、营销与战略能力冒出的杰出创业者。不过，一直在极兔回国创业的早期，李杰与段永平并无太多的交集。幕后大佬段永平和他的中国门徒段永平1982年的时候毕业于浙江大学无线电系，毕业后进入国企工作，但厌倦了日复一日生活的段永平随后又选择去人大读经济学硕士。这之后，段永平南下到一家小型电子工厂工作，不到一年时间就成为厂长。段永平在这个过程中发现了很大商机，小霸王游戏机由此诞生。段永平不仅将小霸王从一个年度亏损达200万元的烂摊子，变成了家喻户晓的游戏主机品牌。小霸王还聘请武打巨星成龙担任代言人，“望子成龙小霸王”广告语在当时家喻户晓。不过，段永平的股份制改造建议遭遇大股东拒绝，此后，段永平出走，创办了步步高，并创造了一个商业奇迹。在事业取得高峰的时候，段永平爱上了他的师妹刘昕，在段永平不断追求下，刘昕动摇了。刘昕对段永平提出，只要段永平敢放弃在国内的一切，跟着自己在美国生活就愿意和他携手一生。事业和爱情面前，段永平在不爱江山爱美人。段永平在决定把国内的产业都交给他的朋友们，跟随刘昕远赴美国生活。此后，段永平将步步高拆为三家公司。其中两家便是陈明永负责的OPPO和沈炜负责的vivo，金志江则在后来接任了步步高，并成为“小天才”之父。他们三位加上拼多多创始人黄峥，被称为段永平的“四大门徒”。当年，段永平指点黄峥加盟当时未上市的谷歌工作，而非如日中天的微软。段永平当时说，“Google看起来是一家挺牛的公司，值得去看看。对你未来创业也是有好处的。去的话至少呆三年，因为一两年没法真正进入重要的岗位，真正了解这个公司。”段永平在2006年以62万美元的价格拍下“股神”巴菲特的午餐，为第一位这样做的华人，带过去的人中就有黄峥。黄峥在谷歌工作了3年，跟随谷歌上市，很快拥有百万美元身家。2007年，黄峥在谷歌满三年，决定回国创业。段永平还是步步高的董事长，便将其中一块电商业务交予他。不久，黄峥主导的欧酷网上线，由步步高控股。此后，黄铮创业各个阶段，段永平或多或少给予黄峥以指导或帮助。黄峥曾说，“老段对我的影响非常大，陈明永是大徒弟，沈炜是二徒弟，金志江是三徒弟，我算是下一代的四徒弟。”黄峥上面提到的3位“师兄”陈永明、沈炜和金志江，分别是OPPO创始人、Vivo创始人和步步高的CEO。黄峥回国创业的第一家公司的投资也是来自段永平。段永平曾表示：我和黄峥10 多年的朋友了，我了解他、相信他。黄峥是我知道的少见的很有悟性的人，他关注事物本质。在拼多多的发展中，段永平也给予了支持，段永平也是拼多多的天使投资人。而投资拼多多，也使得段永平获得了巨额的回报。如今，虽然段永平不在国内，但江湖永远流传着段永平的故事。近期，OPPO不做芯片设计，称面对全球经济、手机市场的不确定性，经过慎重考虑，公司决定终止ZEKU业务。OPPO表示，这是艰难的决定。这个决定背后，也有段永平的影子。段永平就在网上点评说，这些年所有主动停止的业务里，唯一感到生存危机的是步步高卖出第一批VCD。当时产品用的三洋机芯出了问题，步步高随后把卖出的20万台机器全部召回了，“那一次确实难受”。段永平指出，“改正错误越早越好，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价！这不是我们关掉的第一个业务，也绝不会是最后一个。谁再问我们为什么关掉这些业务，我就只好直接拉黑了哈。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01519":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188140553883896,"gmtCreate":1686958478118,"gmtModify":1686958481789,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188140553883896","repostId":"1133979930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133979930","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1686927123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133979930?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 22:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AbbVie and BeiGene: Can't Step into the Same River","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133979930","media":"氨基观察","summary":"“专利，是给天才之火加上利润之油”，林肯的这句名言，被创新药领域的重磅炸弹药物一次次印证。药企之间，没有什么比一场成功的专利战，更能将对手一击致命。但同时，被狙击的一方，绝不会轻易束手就擒，往往会用尽","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Patents are the fuel of profit to the fire of genius,\" Lincoln's famous saying has been repeatedly proven by blockbuster drugs in the field of innovative drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among pharmaceutical companies, nothing can kill their opponents more than a successful patent war. However, at the same time, the party being targeted will never surrender easily and will often use all their strength to resist.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, more often than not, the start of a patent war means that a tug-of-war has begun. In many cases, patent wars end in a protracted standoff followed by a settlement.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the past, the protagonists of patent wars were often overseas pharmaceutical companies. However, as domestic pharmaceutical companies play an increasingly important role in global innovative drug research and development, overseas pharmaceutical companies that feel threatened have begun to include domestic pharmaceutical companies in the patent sniping list.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest domestic pharmaceutical company to be targeted is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On June 15, according to Bloomberg, AbbVie filed a lawsuit...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688235\">BeiGene</a>Zebrutinib sued in court, claiming that it infringed on the patent of ibrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This does not mean that zanubrutinib must constitute an infringement. However, at present<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>We happen to be facing the same opportunity as AbbVie regarding BTK inhibitors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the survival-of-the-fittest business world, zanubrutinib and ibrutinib cannot step into the same river. Patent attacks are a tactic AbbVie must employ to solidify its position.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Regardless of the outcome, the battle between AbbVie and BeiGene serves as a valuable example for China's innovative drug industry.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/01/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Battle for BTK inhibitors</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since its launch in 2013, sales of AbbVie's BTK inhibitor ibrutinib have skyrocketed. In 2021, ibrutinib for AbbVie,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson and Johnson</a>It brought in a total of $9.8 billion in revenue.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ibrutinib's strong ability to attract money has attracted many players to enter the market, and five BTK inhibitors have been approved for marketing worldwide. One of the strongest players is BeiGene's zanubrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the ASH conference in the United States in 2022, BeiGene announced a Phase III clinical trial called ALPINE, which showed that zanubrutinib beat ibrutinib in a head-to-head clinical trial for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of efficacy, zanubrutinib has a better ORR (78.3% vs. 62.5%) and a higher OS rate (97.0% vs. 92.7%) compared to ibrutinib. In terms of safety, the incidence of adverse events of atrial fibrillation/flutter was significantly reduced in the zanubrutinib group (2.5% vs. 10.19%).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In January of this year, based on this data, zanubrutinib was approved by the FDA for the treatment of CLL/SLL. In the 2023 NCCN guidelines for the treatment of CLL/SLL, zanubrutinib has been placed ahead of ibrutinib in the recommendation level.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It should be noted that CLL/SLL has always been one of the most important indications for ibrutinib. Of the nearly $10 billion in sales of ibrutinib, a large part of the market share comes from the contribution of this field.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, after zanubrutinib won this indication, Wall Street securities analysts predicted that the peak sales of zanubrutinib may reach $3.1 billion in the CLL indication alone.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Of course, the size of the cake in the CLL/SLL field is certain, and the growth of zanubrutinib sales must mean that the market share of ibrutinib is eroded.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this battle for BTK inhibitors, ibrutinib has gradually shown its decline. In the first quarter, AbbVie's ibrutinib sales declined by 25.2% to $878 million.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AbbVie is currently facing immense pressure. In addition to the encirclement and suppression of ibrutinib, the patent of the core product \"Medicine King\" Humira has expired, and its market share is also being eroded by generic drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this situation, AbbVie had to launch a counterattack. So, AbbVie came up with its trump card: patent warfare.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/02/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Inevitable disputes</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the biopharmaceutical field, the most common form of business warfare is patent warfare.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because drug patents and drug sales are closely linked, breaking the patent may cause fatal damage to the drug. Therefore, patent litigation has always been a powerful weapon for multinational pharmaceutical companies to block competitors and maintain their market position.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AbbVie, on the other hand, is well aware of the rules of patent wars. AbbVie has made many patent layouts around BTK inhibitors and is constantly expanding the scope of protection. This has also become its secret weapon to disrupt its competitors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As early as 2017,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">AstraZeneca</a>Shortly after the BTK inhibitor Calaquence was approved to treat mantle cell lymphoma, AbbVie sued Calaquence for infringing its patent.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, AstraZeneca did not back down and filed a countersuit against AbbVie in 2018. After two years of wrangling, AbbVie and AstraZeneca finally reached a settlement, and sales of Calaquence were not affected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition to BTK inhibitors, AbbVie has also repeatedly used the patent war as a trump card to protect the rights and interests of the \"drug king\" Humira.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the patent protection for Humira's active ingredients expired as early as 2016, AbbVie has woven a dense patent protection net around its high walls.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If any competitor touched Humira's patent protection net, AbbVie would file a lawsuit to fight back strongly. In the most typical infringement case, AbbVie filed 1,600 claims in one go, directly baffling its opponents.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact, it's not just Humira and Ibrutinib. When we count the world's blockbuster drugs, it's not hard to find that there are more or less patent disputes behind them.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, the world's new \"drug king\" K drug.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On September 4, 2014, K drug was approved for marketing in the United States. On the same day, BMS/Ono Pharmaceutical will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>Sued the court, claiming that K drug infringed its PD-1 antibody patent rights.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although K drugs also launched a counterattack later, the final winners of this patent war were still BMS and Ono Pharmaceuticals, and Merck needed to distribute K drug sales to both of them every year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, there are unclear patent disputes behind blockbuster products and technologies such as AstraZeneca/Daiichi Sankyo's DS-8201, Moderna's mRNA technology, and CRISPR's gene editing technology.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Behind patent disputes lies a struggle for commercial interests.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To put it bluntly, patent litigation is just a strategy and a tool. Maximizing one's own interests through continuous patent litigation battles is the ultimate goal that pharmaceutical companies want to achieve by launching a patent war.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/03/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Precious samples</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The world is bustling with activity for profit, and the world is bustling with activity for profit. As long as profit comes first, the patent war will never stop.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">How to deal with the complex patent wars is an important subject. Although patent warfare is just a conventional business warfare tactic, if the response is not advantageous, it may cause great harm to drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>The patent dispute over Regeneron's PCSK9 is a good example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In October 2014, Amgen's Repatha and Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent PCSK9 monoclonal antibody both submitted marketing applications to the FDA. Because Sanofi used priority review vouchers, Praluent was the first to be approved for listing.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Amgen, which followed closely behind, unleashed a major move: a patent war. In 2014, Amgen sued Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent for infringing on its patents and demanded that Praluent be prohibited from infringing production, use and sale.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Faced with Amgen's sudden attack, Sanofi/Regeneron failed to defend against the attack. In 2016, Amgen won a patent lawsuit, and Praluent was successively kicked out of the US, Japanese and European markets. Amgen's Repatha took the opportunity to win 70% of the global market share.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Sanofi and Regeneron did not give up, and the two continued to appeal to invalidate Regeneron's patent. After several battles, the nearly 10-year-long lawsuit finally came to an end on May 18, with Amgen's two Repatha patents ruled invalid.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Sanofi/Regeneron won the patent, the blow caused by the patent war to Praluent is irreparable. In 2022, Amgen's Repatha sales were approximately US$1.3 billion, while Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent sales were only US$376 million during the same period.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From this example, we can also see that although launching a patent war is just a common means for big pharmaceutical companies to check and balance their opponents, the challenged cannot be complacent. Once the preparation is inadequate and the challenger gains the upper hand, it will cause great harm to drug sales.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, after news broke that AbbVie was targeting zanubrutinib, investors' panic was palpable. By the close of trading on June 15, BeiGene's A-share price had plummeted by 14%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although BeiGene will not sit idly by in its attack on AbbVie, stating that it \"will respond to the complaint at the appropriate time and conduct an active defense,\" no one can predict what the final outcome will be.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Compared to the outcome of the dispute between the two parties, a more noteworthy point is that domestic pharmaceutical companies must re-examine the patent issue if they want to seize the European and American markets.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After all, as more and more Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies begin to go international, the chances of domestic pharmaceutical companies being attacked by overseas pharmaceutical companies' patents in this process will also increase greatly.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of patent wars, foreign companies often come prepared. Once they feel their market share is threatened, they will launch a fierce patent attack.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1686927134813","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AbbVie and BeiGene: Can't Step into the Same River</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAbbVie and BeiGene: Can't Step into the Same River\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">氨基观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-16 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Patents are the fuel of profit to the fire of genius,\" Lincoln's famous saying has been repeatedly proven by blockbuster drugs in the field of innovative drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among pharmaceutical companies, nothing can kill their opponents more than a successful patent war. However, at the same time, the party being targeted will never surrender easily and will often use all their strength to resist.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, more often than not, the start of a patent war means that a tug-of-war has begun. In many cases, patent wars end in a protracted standoff followed by a settlement.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the past, the protagonists of patent wars were often overseas pharmaceutical companies. However, as domestic pharmaceutical companies play an increasingly important role in global innovative drug research and development, overseas pharmaceutical companies that feel threatened have begun to include domestic pharmaceutical companies in the patent sniping list.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest domestic pharmaceutical company to be targeted is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On June 15, according to Bloomberg, AbbVie filed a lawsuit...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688235\">BeiGene</a>Zebrutinib sued in court, claiming that it infringed on the patent of ibrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This does not mean that zanubrutinib must constitute an infringement. However, at present<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>We happen to be facing the same opportunity as AbbVie regarding BTK inhibitors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the survival-of-the-fittest business world, zanubrutinib and ibrutinib cannot step into the same river. Patent attacks are a tactic AbbVie must employ to solidify its position.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Regardless of the outcome, the battle between AbbVie and BeiGene serves as a valuable example for China's innovative drug industry.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/01/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Battle for BTK inhibitors</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since its launch in 2013, sales of AbbVie's BTK inhibitor ibrutinib have skyrocketed. In 2021, ibrutinib for AbbVie,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson and Johnson</a>It brought in a total of $9.8 billion in revenue.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ibrutinib's strong ability to attract money has attracted many players to enter the market, and five BTK inhibitors have been approved for marketing worldwide. One of the strongest players is BeiGene's zanubrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the ASH conference in the United States in 2022, BeiGene announced a Phase III clinical trial called ALPINE, which showed that zanubrutinib beat ibrutinib in a head-to-head clinical trial for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of efficacy, zanubrutinib has a better ORR (78.3% vs. 62.5%) and a higher OS rate (97.0% vs. 92.7%) compared to ibrutinib. In terms of safety, the incidence of adverse events of atrial fibrillation/flutter was significantly reduced in the zanubrutinib group (2.5% vs. 10.19%).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In January of this year, based on this data, zanubrutinib was approved by the FDA for the treatment of CLL/SLL. In the 2023 NCCN guidelines for the treatment of CLL/SLL, zanubrutinib has been placed ahead of ibrutinib in the recommendation level.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It should be noted that CLL/SLL has always been one of the most important indications for ibrutinib. Of the nearly $10 billion in sales of ibrutinib, a large part of the market share comes from the contribution of this field.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, after zanubrutinib won this indication, Wall Street securities analysts predicted that the peak sales of zanubrutinib may reach $3.1 billion in the CLL indication alone.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Of course, the size of the cake in the CLL/SLL field is certain, and the growth of zanubrutinib sales must mean that the market share of ibrutinib is eroded.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this battle for BTK inhibitors, ibrutinib has gradually shown its decline. In the first quarter, AbbVie's ibrutinib sales declined by 25.2% to $878 million.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AbbVie is currently facing immense pressure. In addition to the encirclement and suppression of ibrutinib, the patent of the core product \"Medicine King\" Humira has expired, and its market share is also being eroded by generic drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this situation, AbbVie had to launch a counterattack. So, AbbVie came up with its trump card: patent warfare.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/02/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Inevitable disputes</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the biopharmaceutical field, the most common form of business warfare is patent warfare.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because drug patents and drug sales are closely linked, breaking the patent may cause fatal damage to the drug. Therefore, patent litigation has always been a powerful weapon for multinational pharmaceutical companies to block competitors and maintain their market position.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AbbVie, on the other hand, is well aware of the rules of patent wars. AbbVie has made many patent layouts around BTK inhibitors and is constantly expanding the scope of protection. This has also become its secret weapon to disrupt its competitors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As early as 2017,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">AstraZeneca</a>Shortly after the BTK inhibitor Calaquence was approved to treat mantle cell lymphoma, AbbVie sued Calaquence for infringing its patent.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, AstraZeneca did not back down and filed a countersuit against AbbVie in 2018. After two years of wrangling, AbbVie and AstraZeneca finally reached a settlement, and sales of Calaquence were not affected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition to BTK inhibitors, AbbVie has also repeatedly used the patent war as a trump card to protect the rights and interests of the \"drug king\" Humira.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the patent protection for Humira's active ingredients expired as early as 2016, AbbVie has woven a dense patent protection net around its high walls.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If any competitor touched Humira's patent protection net, AbbVie would file a lawsuit to fight back strongly. In the most typical infringement case, AbbVie filed 1,600 claims in one go, directly baffling its opponents.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact, it's not just Humira and Ibrutinib. When we count the world's blockbuster drugs, it's not hard to find that there are more or less patent disputes behind them.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, the world's new \"drug king\" K drug.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On September 4, 2014, K drug was approved for marketing in the United States. On the same day, BMS/Ono Pharmaceutical will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>Sued the court, claiming that K drug infringed its PD-1 antibody patent rights.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although K drugs also launched a counterattack later, the final winners of this patent war were still BMS and Ono Pharmaceuticals, and Merck needed to distribute K drug sales to both of them every year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, there are unclear patent disputes behind blockbuster products and technologies such as AstraZeneca/Daiichi Sankyo's DS-8201, Moderna's mRNA technology, and CRISPR's gene editing technology.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Behind patent disputes lies a struggle for commercial interests.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To put it bluntly, patent litigation is just a strategy and a tool. Maximizing one's own interests through continuous patent litigation battles is the ultimate goal that pharmaceutical companies want to achieve by launching a patent war.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/03/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Precious samples</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The world is bustling with activity for profit, and the world is bustling with activity for profit. As long as profit comes first, the patent war will never stop.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">How to deal with the complex patent wars is an important subject. Although patent warfare is just a conventional business warfare tactic, if the response is not advantageous, it may cause great harm to drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>The patent dispute over Regeneron's PCSK9 is a good example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In October 2014, Amgen's Repatha and Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent PCSK9 monoclonal antibody both submitted marketing applications to the FDA. Because Sanofi used priority review vouchers, Praluent was the first to be approved for listing.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Amgen, which followed closely behind, unleashed a major move: a patent war. In 2014, Amgen sued Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent for infringing on its patents and demanded that Praluent be prohibited from infringing production, use and sale.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Faced with Amgen's sudden attack, Sanofi/Regeneron failed to defend against the attack. In 2016, Amgen won a patent lawsuit, and Praluent was successively kicked out of the US, Japanese and European markets. Amgen's Repatha took the opportunity to win 70% of the global market share.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Sanofi and Regeneron did not give up, and the two continued to appeal to invalidate Regeneron's patent. After several battles, the nearly 10-year-long lawsuit finally came to an end on May 18, with Amgen's two Repatha patents ruled invalid.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Sanofi/Regeneron won the patent, the blow caused by the patent war to Praluent is irreparable. In 2022, Amgen's Repatha sales were approximately US$1.3 billion, while Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent sales were only US$376 million during the same period.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From this example, we can also see that although launching a patent war is just a common means for big pharmaceutical companies to check and balance their opponents, the challenged cannot be complacent. Once the preparation is inadequate and the challenger gains the upper hand, it will cause great harm to drug sales.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, after news broke that AbbVie was targeting zanubrutinib, investors' panic was palpable. By the close of trading on June 15, BeiGene's A-share price had plummeted by 14%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although BeiGene will not sit idly by in its attack on AbbVie, stating that it \"will respond to the complaint at the appropriate time and conduct an active defense,\" no one can predict what the final outcome will be.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Compared to the outcome of the dispute between the two parties, a more noteworthy point is that domestic pharmaceutical companies must re-examine the patent issue if they want to seize the European and American markets.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After all, as more and more Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies begin to go international, the chances of domestic pharmaceutical companies being attacked by overseas pharmaceutical companies' patents in this process will also increase greatly.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of patent wars, foreign companies often come prepared. Once they feel their market share is threatened, they will launch a fierce patent attack.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwMjU5Njk5NA==&mid=2247496324&idx=1&sn=368b858aadaf3d6665d1cbe72af1cf78&chksm=96de8569a1a90c7f4700ab1c97d8f4794355914f5d6c19d7ecd88ac9a0d32cba49ceb8929d32#rd\">氨基观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3771c3d94c1c3544b07a5dcf5fabd2ee","relate_stocks":{"688235":"百济神州","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1161":"生物科技","06160":"百济神州","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4139":"生物科技","BK1583":"高瓴概念","BK0239":"医药制造","LU1969619763.USD":"EASTSPRING INV CHINA A SHARES GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK1500":"做空集合股","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwMjU5Njk5NA==&mid=2247496324&idx=1&sn=368b858aadaf3d6665d1cbe72af1cf78&chksm=96de8569a1a90c7f4700ab1c97d8f4794355914f5d6c19d7ecd88ac9a0d32cba49ceb8929d32#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133979930","content_text":"“专利，是给天才之火加上利润之油”，林肯的这句名言，被创新药领域的重磅炸弹药物一次次印证。药企之间，没有什么比一场成功的专利战，更能将对手一击致命。但同时，被狙击的一方，绝不会轻易束手就擒，往往会用尽了全力反抗。所以，更多时候，专利战的开打，意味着一场拉锯战就此开始。不少情况下，专利战的结局都是，旷日持久的对峙后以和解告终。过往，专利战的主角往往是海外药企。但随着国内药企，在全球创新药研发中的地位越来越重要，感受到威胁的海外药企，开始将国内药企纳入专利狙击名单。最新被狙击的国内药企是百济神州。6月15日，据彭博社消息，艾伯维一纸诉状将百济神州的泽布替尼诉至公堂，称其侵犯了伊布替尼的专利。这并不意味着泽布替尼一定构成侵权事实。只是，当下百济神州和艾伯维恰好站在了，BTK抑制剂这同一个机遇面前。在优胜劣汰的商业世界，泽布替尼和伊布替尼无法踏进同一条河流。而专利狙击，是艾伯维为了稳固自身地位，必须打出的手段。不管结果如何，对中国创新药行业而言，艾伯维与百济神州的对垒，都是一个珍贵的样本。/ 01 /BTK抑制剂争夺战自2013年问世以来，艾伯维的BTK抑制剂伊布替尼销售额一路狂奔。2021年，伊布替尼为艾伯维、强生带来了总计98亿美元的收入。伊布替尼超强的吸金能力，吸引了众多选手入局，全球已有5款BTK抑制剂获批上市。其中，实力最强劲的选手之一，是百济神州的泽布替尼。2022年在美国ASH大会上，百济神州公布的一项名为ALPINE的三期临床试验显示，在慢性淋巴细胞白血病 (CLL) /小淋巴细胞淋巴瘤 (SLL) 的头对头临床试验中，泽布替尼击败了伊布替尼。在疗效上，与伊布替尼相比泽布替尼具有更好的ORR（78.3% vs. 62.5%），更高的OS率（97.0% vs. 92.7%）。在安全性上，泽布替尼组出现房颤/房扑的不良事件发生率显著降低（2.5% vs. 10.19%）今年1月，凭借这一数据，泽布替尼获FDA批准用于治疗CLL/SLL。在2023年的NCCN 治疗CLL/SLL指南中，泽布替尼的推荐级别已被置于伊布替尼之前。要知道，CLL/SLL一直是伊布替尼的最为重要的适应症之一。在伊布替尼近100亿美元的销售额中，有一大部分的市场份额均来自这一领域的贡献。因此，在泽布替尼拿下这一适应症后，华尔街的证券分析师预测，仅在CLL一个适应症上，泽布替尼的销售额峰值就可能达到31亿美元。当然了，CLL/SLL领域蛋糕大小是确定的，泽布替尼销售额的增长，必然意味着伊布替尼市场份额受到蚕食。在这场BTK抑制剂的争夺战中，伊布替尼已经逐渐显露出颓势。一季度，艾伯维的伊布替尼销售额下滑25.2%，为8.78亿美元。如今的艾伯维，正面临巨大压力。除了伊布替尼遭受围剿外，核心产品“药王”修美乐专利到期，市场份额也在被仿制药蚕食。在这种情况下，艾伯维不得不发起反击。所以，艾伯维拿出了自己的杀手锏：专利战。/ 02 /必然发生的纠纷在生物制药领域，最常见的商战形式便是专利战。因为药物专利和药物的销售情况紧紧相连，一旦攻破专利可能给药物带来致命伤害。所以专利诉讼一直是跨国药企阻击竞争对手、维持市场地位的有力武器。而艾伯维，更是深谙专利之战的规则。围绕BTK抑制剂，艾伯维做了诸多专利布局，且在不断扩大保护范围。这也成为其搅乱竞争对手阵脚的秘密武器。早在2017年，阿斯利康的BTK抑制剂 Calaquence获批治疗套细胞淋巴瘤后不久，艾伯维便起诉Calaquence侵犯了自己的专利。但阿斯利康没有退却，在2018年对艾伯维提起了反诉讼，经过两年的拉锯后，艾伯维和阿斯利康最终达成了和解，Calaquence的销售并未受到影响BTK抑制剂之外，艾伯维也曾为维护“药王”修美乐的权益，多次拿出专利战这一杀手锏。虽然，早在2016年修美乐活性成分的专利保护已经过期，但艾伯维为其外围专利铸造的高墙，编织了一张致密的专利防护网。一旦有竞争对手触碰到修美乐的专利防护网，艾伯维就会诉讼予以强烈反击。最典型的侵权案例中，艾伯维一口气提出了1600个权利要求，直接把对手打蒙。事实上，不仅仅是修美乐和伊布替尼，当我们细数全球的重磅炸弹药物后，不难发现其背后多多少少都有着专利纠纷的案例。比如，全球新任“药王”K药。2014年9月4日，K药在美国获批上市。而就在同一天，BMS/小野制药将默沙东告上了法庭，称K药侵犯了其PD-1抗体专利权。虽然，后续K药也进行了反攻，但最终这场专利战的胜者仍然是BMS和小野制药，默沙东需要每年向二者分红K药的销售额。再比如阿斯利康/第一三共的DS-8201、Moderna的mRNA技术、CRISPR的基因编辑技术等重磅产品、技术背后都有着厘不清的专利纠纷。专利纠纷背后隐藏的，实则是商业利益之争。直白地说，专利诉讼只是策略和工具，通过不断专利诉讼战将自己的利益最大化，这才是药企发动专利战要达到的最终目的。/ 03 /珍贵的样本天下熙熙皆为利来，天下攘攘皆为利去，只要“利”字当头，专利战就永远不会停歇。而如何应对纷繁的专利战，是一门重要的学问。虽然专利战只是一种常规商战手段，但倘若应对不利，可能使药物受到巨大的伤害。安进与赛诺菲/再生元的PCSK9的专利之争，便是一个很好的例子。2014年10月，安进的Repatha和赛诺菲/再生元的Praluent PCSK9单抗都向FDA提交上市申请。由于赛诺菲使用了优先审评券，所以Praluent率先获批上市。但紧随其后的安进祭出了大招，专利战。2014年安进状告赛诺菲/再生元的Praluent侵犯了其拥有的专利，要求禁止Praluent侵权生产、使用和销售。面对着安进突如其来的一击，赛诺菲/再生元没能成功守住攻击。2016年，安进赢得了专利诉讼，Praluent被相继踢出美国、日本、欧洲市场。安进的Repatha则借机赢得了全球70%的市场份额。不过，赛诺菲、再生元并未放弃，二者继续上诉要求无效再生元的专利。经过几番较量，5月18日，这场打了将近10年的官司终于落下帷幕，安进的Repatha两项专利被判无效。虽然赛诺菲/再生元赢了专利，但专利战对Praluent造成的打击已经无法挽回。2022年，安进的Repatha销售额约为13亿美元，而同期赛诺菲/再生元的Praluent销售额仅为3.76亿美元。从这个例子我们也能看到，虽然发起专利战只是大药企制衡对手的惯用手段，但被挑战者并不能就此掉以轻心。一旦准备不充分，被挑战者占据了上风，会对药物销售造成巨大的伤害。所以，在艾伯维狙击泽布替尼消息传出后，投资者的恐慌肉眼可见。截止6月15日收盘，百济神州A股股价大跌14%。虽然百济神州对于艾伯维的狙击也不会坐以待毙，其表示“将在适当的时候对该投诉作出应对，并开展积极的辩护”，但谁也无法预料到最终的结果将会如何。相比于双方纠纷的结果，更值得关注的一点是：国内药企要想去抢占欧美市场，必须重新审视专利问题。毕竟，随着越来越多中国的创新药企开始走向国际，在这个过程中，国内药企被遭到海外药企专利狙击的机会，也会大大增加。而在专利战方面，国外企业往往有备而来，它们一旦感受到市场份额受到威胁时，便会发动猛烈地专利狙击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688235":0.9,"06160":0.9,"BGNE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188141309186200,"gmtCreate":1686958460457,"gmtModify":1686958464404,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"M","listText":"M","text":"M","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188141309186200","repostId":"2343198417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2343198417","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1686928800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2343198417?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Adobe's prospects are more constructive with the help of AI, and major Wall Street banks have raised their target prices.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2343198417","media":"智通财经网","summary":"由于Adobe Q2业绩超出市场预期、以及上调全年业绩指引，多家华尔街大行均上调对该股目标价。软件服务巨头Adobe周四美股盘后公布了2023财年第二季度财报。由于Adobe Q2业绩超出市场预期、以","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Due to Adobe's Q2 results exceeding market expectations and the upward revision of its full-year earnings guidance, several major Wall Street banks have raised their target prices for the stock. Software services giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>U.S. stocks released their second-quarter fiscal 2023 earnings reports after trading on Thursday. Due to Adobe's Q2 results exceeding market expectations and the upward revision of its full-year earnings guidance, several major Wall Street banks have raised their target prices for the stock.</p><p>Adobe's Q2 total revenue rose 10% year-over-year to $4.82 billion, better than the average analyst expectation of $4.77 billion; Adjusted earnings per share were $3.91, better than the average analyst expectation of $3.79. In addition, Adobe raised its revenue and earnings per share forecasts for the full fiscal year 2023. The company believes that generative artificial intelligence (AI) software will stimulate market demand for its software. The company expects total revenue for the full year to be between $19.25 billion and $19.35 billion (previously expected $19.2 billion), compared to analysts' expectations of $19.3 billion; Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $15.65 and $15.75 (previously expected to be $15.60), compared to analysts' expectations of $15.50.</p><p>Adobe has long been a software sales giant targeting creative professionals, and the company is adding generative artificial intelligence features to its products. \"Given our rich datasets, underlying models, and ubiquitous product interfaces, Adobe's groundbreaking innovations enable us to lead a new era of generative artificial intelligence,\" Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p>Here's what major banks think about Adobe:</p><p>Barclays analyst Saket Kalia gave Adobe a \"hold\" rating and raised his price target from $485 to $540. Analysts say Adobe's stock price rise stems from its pricing advantage, which is likely to become more pronounced in the second half of this year. Analysts point out that the company has ways to monetize its generative AI tool, Firefly. Furthermore, given the prospects of generative AI and the current regulatory environment, the lack of any updates on the acquisition of Figma could be considered a positive factor.</p><p>In their report, analysts wrote, \"Adobe's forecast for net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) for its digital media business is $410 million in the third quarter, with an implied forecast of approximately $460 million in the fourth quarter. Even without assuming Firefly will contribute in the fourth quarter, we would consider the fourth-quarter forecast to be conservative.\" \"While we are unsure whether growth will be able to maintain the level of the second quarter, we believe the company's guidance suggests that this level can be sustained.\"</p><p>Analysts added that Adobe has three ways to monetize its generative AI tool Firefly: using Creative co-pilot to increase average revenue per user; Increase user stickiness and improve user retention rate; Increase paying users through the free value-added model. Analysts said, \"As FireFly begins to feel like a more real growth opportunity, we're starting to sense this shift in sentiment, and some investors are wondering if a potential deal with Figma is really as negative as feared a few months ago.\"</p><p>UBS analyst Karl Keirstead maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $440 to $525. Analysts pointed out that Adobe's overall performance in the second quarter improved, especially with strong revenue and ARR growth in its core creative divisions, which should help quell investor concerns. Analysts are also optimistic that the company will benefit from generative AI, although it appears to be more focused on applications than revenue (at least in the near term).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained his \"hold\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $470 to $510. Analysts said Adobe's second-quarter results were \"impressive,\" adding that the company's upward guidance \"demonstrates solid execution in a challenging macroeconomic environment.\" However, analysts also pointed out that given the uncertainty surrounding the Figma transaction, it remains to be seen whether the company's revenue can accelerate again.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analyst Mark Murphy maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $450 to $490. Analysts said Adobe's second-quarter results showed \"relative resilience,\" with net new ARR guidance for the third quarter slightly higher than expected, and both total revenue and net new ARR guidance for fiscal year 2023 slightly revised upward. Analysts say the company remains relatively well-positioned due to its ability to achieve growth in the short term, coupled with some macroeconomic conservatism.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>We maintain our \"Buy\" rating on Adobe and raise our price target from $480 to $550. According to the bank's analysts, Adobe's second-quarter earnings report released on Thursday, coupled with its recently announced products, could directly change investors' narrative about artificial intelligence, and Adobe could be the main beneficiary. Analysts said the company's \"broad data-driven platform and product-led growth should enable it to seize this opportunity.\"</p><p>In addition, Baird analyst Rob Oliver maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $370 to $500;</p><p>Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $450 to $520.</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin maintained his \"Overweight\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $500 to $572.</p><p>Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane maintains its \"buy\" rating on Adobe and raises its price target from $400 to $550;</p><p>Bank of America analyst Brad Sills maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $480 to $575.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>We maintain our \"Overweight\" rating on Adobe and raise our price target from $525 to $600.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe's prospects are more constructive with the help of AI, and major Wall Street banks have raised their target prices.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe's prospects are more constructive with the help of AI, and major Wall Street banks have raised their target prices.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-16 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Due to Adobe's Q2 results exceeding market expectations and the upward revision of its full-year earnings guidance, several major Wall Street banks have raised their target prices for the stock. Software services giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>U.S. stocks released their second-quarter fiscal 2023 earnings reports after trading on Thursday. Due to Adobe's Q2 results exceeding market expectations and the upward revision of its full-year earnings guidance, several major Wall Street banks have raised their target prices for the stock.</p><p>Adobe's Q2 total revenue rose 10% year-over-year to $4.82 billion, better than the average analyst expectation of $4.77 billion; Adjusted earnings per share were $3.91, better than the average analyst expectation of $3.79. In addition, Adobe raised its revenue and earnings per share forecasts for the full fiscal year 2023. The company believes that generative artificial intelligence (AI) software will stimulate market demand for its software. The company expects total revenue for the full year to be between $19.25 billion and $19.35 billion (previously expected $19.2 billion), compared to analysts' expectations of $19.3 billion; Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $15.65 and $15.75 (previously expected to be $15.60), compared to analysts' expectations of $15.50.</p><p>Adobe has long been a software sales giant targeting creative professionals, and the company is adding generative artificial intelligence features to its products. \"Given our rich datasets, underlying models, and ubiquitous product interfaces, Adobe's groundbreaking innovations enable us to lead a new era of generative artificial intelligence,\" Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p>Here's what major banks think about Adobe:</p><p>Barclays analyst Saket Kalia gave Adobe a \"hold\" rating and raised his price target from $485 to $540. Analysts say Adobe's stock price rise stems from its pricing advantage, which is likely to become more pronounced in the second half of this year. Analysts point out that the company has ways to monetize its generative AI tool, Firefly. Furthermore, given the prospects of generative AI and the current regulatory environment, the lack of any updates on the acquisition of Figma could be considered a positive factor.</p><p>In their report, analysts wrote, \"Adobe's forecast for net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) for its digital media business is $410 million in the third quarter, with an implied forecast of approximately $460 million in the fourth quarter. Even without assuming Firefly will contribute in the fourth quarter, we would consider the fourth-quarter forecast to be conservative.\" \"While we are unsure whether growth will be able to maintain the level of the second quarter, we believe the company's guidance suggests that this level can be sustained.\"</p><p>Analysts added that Adobe has three ways to monetize its generative AI tool Firefly: using Creative co-pilot to increase average revenue per user; Increase user stickiness and improve user retention rate; Increase paying users through the free value-added model. Analysts said, \"As FireFly begins to feel like a more real growth opportunity, we're starting to sense this shift in sentiment, and some investors are wondering if a potential deal with Figma is really as negative as feared a few months ago.\"</p><p>UBS analyst Karl Keirstead maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $440 to $525. Analysts pointed out that Adobe's overall performance in the second quarter improved, especially with strong revenue and ARR growth in its core creative divisions, which should help quell investor concerns. Analysts are also optimistic that the company will benefit from generative AI, although it appears to be more focused on applications than revenue (at least in the near term).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained his \"hold\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $470 to $510. Analysts said Adobe's second-quarter results were \"impressive,\" adding that the company's upward guidance \"demonstrates solid execution in a challenging macroeconomic environment.\" However, analysts also pointed out that given the uncertainty surrounding the Figma transaction, it remains to be seen whether the company's revenue can accelerate again.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analyst Mark Murphy maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $450 to $490. Analysts said Adobe's second-quarter results showed \"relative resilience,\" with net new ARR guidance for the third quarter slightly higher than expected, and both total revenue and net new ARR guidance for fiscal year 2023 slightly revised upward. Analysts say the company remains relatively well-positioned due to its ability to achieve growth in the short term, coupled with some macroeconomic conservatism.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>We maintain our \"Buy\" rating on Adobe and raise our price target from $480 to $550. According to the bank's analysts, Adobe's second-quarter earnings report released on Thursday, coupled with its recently announced products, could directly change investors' narrative about artificial intelligence, and Adobe could be the main beneficiary. Analysts said the company's \"broad data-driven platform and product-led growth should enable it to seize this opportunity.\"</p><p>In addition, Baird analyst Rob Oliver maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $370 to $500;</p><p>Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $450 to $520.</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin maintained his \"Overweight\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $500 to $572.</p><p>Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane maintains its \"buy\" rating on Adobe and raises its price target from $400 to $550;</p><p>Bank of America analyst Brad Sills maintained his \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his price target from $480 to $575.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>We maintain our \"Overweight\" rating on Adobe and raise our price target from $525 to $600.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2023-06-16/doc-imyxpany4562344.shtml\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa7700950dd1f7f41963706d226f8a7","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2023-06-16/doc-imyxpany4562344.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2343198417","content_text":"由于Adobe Q2业绩超出市场预期、以及上调全年业绩指引，多家华尔街大行均上调对该股目标价。软件服务巨头Adobe周四美股盘后公布了2023财年第二季度财报。由于Adobe Q2业绩超出市场预期、以及上调全年业绩指引，多家华尔街大行均上调对该股目标价。Adobe Q2总营收同比增长10%至48.2亿美元，好于分析师平均预期的47.7亿美元;调整后的每股收益为3.91美元，好于分析师平均预期的3.79美元。此外，Adobe上调了2023财年全年营收和每股收益预期。该公司认为，生成式人工智能(AI)功能软件将刺激市场对其软件需求。该公司预计，全年总营收为192.5亿美元至193.5亿美元(此前预期为192亿美元)，分析师预期为193亿美元;预计调整后的每股收益为15.65美元至15.75美元(此前预期为15.60美元)，分析师预期为15.50美元。长期以来，Adobe一直是面向创意型专业人士的软件销售巨头，该公司正在其产品中添加生成式人工智能功能。Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示:“鉴于我们丰富的数据集、基础模型和无处不在的产品界面，Adobe的突破性创新使我们能够引领生成式人工智能的新时代。”以下是各大行对Adobe的看法：巴克莱分析师Saket Kalia予Adobe“持股观望”评级，将目标价由485美元上调至540美元。分析师表示，Adobe股价上涨源于其定价优势，这一优势在今年下半年可能会更加明显。分析师指出，该公司有办法将其生成式AI工具Firefly货币化。此外，考虑到生成式AI的前景和当前的监管环境，收购Figma的交易还没有任何更新可能被视为一个积极的因素。分析师在报告中写道：“Adobe对数字媒体业务净新年度经常性收入(ARR)在第三季度的预期为4.1亿美元，第四季度的隐含预期约为4.6亿美元。即使在不假设Firefly在第四季度会有业绩贡献的情况下，我们也会认为第四季度的预期似乎是保守的。”“虽然我们不确定届时业绩增长能否保持在第二季度的水平，但我们认为该公司设定的业绩指引意味着这种水平能持续下去。”分析师补充称，Adobe有三种方法可以将其生成式AI工具Firefly货币化：使用Creative co-pilot可以提高每用户的平均收入;增加用户粘性，提高用户留存率;通过免费增值模式增加付费用户。分析师表示：“随着FireFly开始感觉是一个更真实的增长机会，我们开始感觉到这种情绪的变化，一些投资者想知道，与Figma的潜在交易是否真的像几个月前担心的那样负面。”瑞银分析师Karl Keirstead维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由440美元上调至525美元。分析师指出，Adobe第二季度的整体业绩有所增长，尤其是其核心创意部门的营收和ARR增长强劲，这应该有助于平息投资者的担忧。分析师还乐观地表示，该公司将从生成式AI中受益，尽管该公司似乎更关注应用而不是营收(至少在近期内是这样)。摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss维持Adobe“持股观望”评级，目标价由470美元上调至510美元。分析师表示，Adobe第二季度业绩“令人印象深刻”，并补充称，该公司上调业绩指引“显示出在严峻的宏观环境下的稳健执行力”。不过，分析师也指出，考虑到Figma交易的不确定性，该公司的营收能否重新加速增长仍有待商榷。摩根大通分析师Mark Murphy维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由450美元上调至490美元。分析师表示，Adobe第二季度业绩表现出“相对韧性”，第三季度的净新ARR指引略高于预期，2023财年的总营收和净新ARR指引均略有上调。分析师表示，由于短期内可以实现增长，加上宏观上的一些保守性，该公司的定位仍然相对较好。高盛维持Adobe“买入”评级，目标价由480美元上调至550美元。该行分析师表示，Adobe周四公布的第二季度财报加上近期公布的产品，可能会直接改变投资者对人工智能的叙事，而Adobe有可能成为主要受益者。分析师表示，该公司“广泛的数据驱动平台和产品主导的增长应该使其能够抓住这个机会”。此外，Baird分析师Rob Oliver维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由370美元上调至500美元;瑞穗分析师Gregg Moskowitz维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由450美元上调至520美元;Piper Sandler分析师Brent Bracelin维持Adobe“增持”评级，目标价由500美元上调至572美元;Stifel分析师J. Parker Lane维持Adobe“买入”评级，目标价由400美元上调至550美元;美国银行分析师Brad Sills维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由480美元上调至575美元;富国银行维持Adobe“增持”评级，目标价由525美元上调至600美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188140495925296,"gmtCreate":1686958439577,"gmtModify":1686958443110,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188140495925296","repostId":"1165534285","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186309392920720,"gmtCreate":1686525111197,"gmtModify":1686525114810,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186309392920720","repostId":"2342206563","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2342206563","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1686403014,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2342206563?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-10 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. bond yields \"peaked\"? HSBC: It's real this time!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2342206563","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰认为，如果经济衰退发生，下一个重大政策举措更有可能是降息，这也意味着实际收益率或继续下降。汇丰认为美联储将在2024年之前降息。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As markets bet that the Fed skips rate hike in June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Confirm that the long-term U.S. bond yield has peaked.</p><p>Earlier this week, Steven Majo, head of global fixed-income research at HSBC, and Lawrence Dye, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at the company, jointly released a research report saying,<strong>U.S. bond yields peaked in October last year,</strong>The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields reached 4.24% and 4.38%, respectively. A graph drawn by HSBC shows,<strong>The 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds have continued to decline since October.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a16110d6749ed9561be28c486107db\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p>HSBC said in the report:</p><p>At the time, the global fixed-income market was in the midst of a \"perfect storm\", still dealing with the shock of the UK bond market and soaring US inflation, while investors expected China's reopening to boost the economy. As HSBC pointed out, the global bond market was in a turbulent time. Former British Prime Minister Truss's budget triggered a bond market storm. At the end of October, the yield on 10-year British bonds soared about 150 basis points from mid-September. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is in the most aggressive rate hike cycle in more than 40 years, with a continuous sharp rate hike of 75 basis points.</p><p>Given that (the Fed) has been rate hike five times since yields peaked on Oct. 24, 2022,<strong>We think the resilience of long-term U.S. debt is impressive</strong>； Rate hikes of 75 basis points in November, 50 basis points in December, and 25 basis points in the next three rate hike. (In five months) the Federal Reserve has a total rate hike of 200 basis points, and the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is still 50 basis points lower.<strong>HSBC believes that behind the peak of yields is actually a reversal of fundamentals.</strong></p><p>The bank found that long-term yields are often limited by long-term trends in GDP, such as real yields that are often less than the growth rate of GDP.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7003d2cd31389176f03b6679b9447d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"487\"/></p><p>HSBC believes that since the start of this rate hike cycle, the Federal Reserve has rate hike 500 basis points, which may further rate hike or put the United States into recession. That is to say,<strong>If a recession occurs, the next big policy move is more likely to be a rate cut. This also means that the real yield may continue to decline.</strong></p><p>This also explains the significant inversion between Federal Funds rate and two-year U.S. Treasury yields, as well as the inversion of two-and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, HSBC said.</p><p>Observing the performance of the previous rate hike cycle yield curve, HSBC found that:</p><p>The 2-year fed funds spread typically enters an equilibrium reversal when investors expect the next big move in policy rates to be a rate cut. The inversion typically intensifies further as the Fed begins to ease policy. Once the fund interest rate reaches a loose level,<strong>This part of the yield curve is likely to tilt upward.</strong>Given that the Fed's expectation for a neutral rate is 2.5%, interest rates will show a positive slope in the yield curve as long as they are less than that. We find that the long end of the curve moves ahead of time and note that the 10/30-year U.S. bond normalizes again before the 2/10-year U.S. bond yield.<strong>The inversion of the 2/10-year U.S. debt also establishes an equilibrium level, and this spread tends to be more stable when the Fed is in easing mode.</strong>When the rate hike cycle turns, both 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are likely to drop significantly relative to where they started. But when the funds rate is not expected to rise to very accommodative levels, the 10-year yield level is likely to be stickier, which is exactly what the current consensus forecast suggests. The Fed may skip June, rate hike at its July meeting, which has largely been priced by the market<strong>。 HSBC noted that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 anyway and is in line with its dot plot.</strong></p><p>Still, then if the forward curve has priced in that expectation, how can yields fall in the future?</p><p>HSBC noted that current yields reflect risk aversion among investors. U.S. Treasury due December 15, 2025 (with a 4% coupon rate) – a representative of the year-end 2-year benchmark U.S. Treasury,<strong>The current yield is 4.25%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Funds rate cap.</strong></p><p>U.S. bond yields are expected to rise by about 20 basis points without the Fed easing policy, but in the case of easing,<strong>Yields could fall by at least 50 basis points, depending on the magnitude and pace of rate cuts.</strong></p><p>HSBC believes that if the US economy achieves a soft landing, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July, but under the assumption of a hard landing, it may be necessary to cut interest rates sharply.</p><p>As of Friday's close, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was slightly higher at 3.745%. In comparison, the median forecasts aggregated by Forward and Bloomberg at the end of 2023 were 3.64% and 3.37%, respectively,<strong>About 100 basis points higher than the HSBC forecast.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. bond yields \"peaked\"? HSBC: It's real this time!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. bond yields \"peaked\"? HSBC: It's real this time!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-10 21:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As markets bet that the Fed skips rate hike in June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Confirm that the long-term U.S. bond yield has peaked.</p><p>Earlier this week, Steven Majo, head of global fixed-income research at HSBC, and Lawrence Dye, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at the company, jointly released a research report saying,<strong>U.S. bond yields peaked in October last year,</strong>The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields reached 4.24% and 4.38%, respectively. A graph drawn by HSBC shows,<strong>The 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds have continued to decline since October.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a16110d6749ed9561be28c486107db\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p>HSBC said in the report:</p><p>At the time, the global fixed-income market was in the midst of a \"perfect storm\", still dealing with the shock of the UK bond market and soaring US inflation, while investors expected China's reopening to boost the economy. As HSBC pointed out, the global bond market was in a turbulent time. Former British Prime Minister Truss's budget triggered a bond market storm. At the end of October, the yield on 10-year British bonds soared about 150 basis points from mid-September. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is in the most aggressive rate hike cycle in more than 40 years, with a continuous sharp rate hike of 75 basis points.</p><p>Given that (the Fed) has been rate hike five times since yields peaked on Oct. 24, 2022,<strong>We think the resilience of long-term U.S. debt is impressive</strong>； Rate hikes of 75 basis points in November, 50 basis points in December, and 25 basis points in the next three rate hike. (In five months) the Federal Reserve has a total rate hike of 200 basis points, and the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is still 50 basis points lower.<strong>HSBC believes that behind the peak of yields is actually a reversal of fundamentals.</strong></p><p>The bank found that long-term yields are often limited by long-term trends in GDP, such as real yields that are often less than the growth rate of GDP.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7003d2cd31389176f03b6679b9447d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"487\"/></p><p>HSBC believes that since the start of this rate hike cycle, the Federal Reserve has rate hike 500 basis points, which may further rate hike or put the United States into recession. That is to say,<strong>If a recession occurs, the next big policy move is more likely to be a rate cut. This also means that the real yield may continue to decline.</strong></p><p>This also explains the significant inversion between Federal Funds rate and two-year U.S. Treasury yields, as well as the inversion of two-and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, HSBC said.</p><p>Observing the performance of the previous rate hike cycle yield curve, HSBC found that:</p><p>The 2-year fed funds spread typically enters an equilibrium reversal when investors expect the next big move in policy rates to be a rate cut. The inversion typically intensifies further as the Fed begins to ease policy. Once the fund interest rate reaches a loose level,<strong>This part of the yield curve is likely to tilt upward.</strong>Given that the Fed's expectation for a neutral rate is 2.5%, interest rates will show a positive slope in the yield curve as long as they are less than that. We find that the long end of the curve moves ahead of time and note that the 10/30-year U.S. bond normalizes again before the 2/10-year U.S. bond yield.<strong>The inversion of the 2/10-year U.S. debt also establishes an equilibrium level, and this spread tends to be more stable when the Fed is in easing mode.</strong>When the rate hike cycle turns, both 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are likely to drop significantly relative to where they started. But when the funds rate is not expected to rise to very accommodative levels, the 10-year yield level is likely to be stickier, which is exactly what the current consensus forecast suggests. The Fed may skip June, rate hike at its July meeting, which has largely been priced by the market<strong>。 HSBC noted that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 anyway and is in line with its dot plot.</strong></p><p>Still, then if the forward curve has priced in that expectation, how can yields fall in the future?</p><p>HSBC noted that current yields reflect risk aversion among investors. U.S. Treasury due December 15, 2025 (with a 4% coupon rate) – a representative of the year-end 2-year benchmark U.S. Treasury,<strong>The current yield is 4.25%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Funds rate cap.</strong></p><p>U.S. bond yields are expected to rise by about 20 basis points without the Fed easing policy, but in the case of easing,<strong>Yields could fall by at least 50 basis points, depending on the magnitude and pace of rate cuts.</strong></p><p>HSBC believes that if the US economy achieves a soft landing, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July, but under the assumption of a hard landing, it may be necessary to cut interest rates sharply.</p><p>As of Friday's close, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was slightly higher at 3.745%. In comparison, the median forecasts aggregated by Forward and Bloomberg at the end of 2023 were 3.64% and 3.37%, respectively,<strong>About 100 basis points higher than the HSBC forecast.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3690818\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caec151912b33c61e8599a6f595255eb","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","BK4521":"英国银行股","HSBC":"汇丰","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3690818","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2342206563","content_text":"市场押注美联储6月跳过加息之际，汇丰确认，长期美债收益率已经见顶。本周稍早前，汇丰全球固收研究主管Steven Majo和公司美国利率策略主管Lawrence Dye联合发布研究报告称，美债收益率在去年10月已达到峰值，10年期和30年期美债收益率分别达到4.24%和4.38%。汇丰绘制的图表显示，10年期和30年期美债自10月以来持续下降。汇丰在报告中表示：当时全球固收市场正处于一场“完美风暴”之中，仍在应对英国债市带来的冲击和飙升的美国通胀，同时投资者预计中国的重新开放将提振经济。正如汇丰指出，当时的全球债市正值风雨飘摇之际。英国前首相特拉斯的预算案引发债市风暴，10月底，10年期英债收益率从9月中旬飙升约150个基点。美国方面，美联储正处于四十余年来最激进的加息周期，连续大幅加息75基点。鉴于（美联储）自2022年10月24日收益率见顶以来已经加息五次，我们认为长期美债的韧性令人印象深刻；11月加息75基点、12月加息50基点，接下来三次加息25基点。 （五个月里）美联储共加息200个基点，10年期美债收益率仍低50个基点。汇丰认为，收益率见顶的背后，实际上是基本面的逆转。该行发现，长期收益率往往受到GDP长期趋势的限制，比如实际收益率往往小于GDP的增速。汇丰认为，本轮加息周期开启以来，美联储已加息500个基点，并可能进一步加息，或使美国步入衰退。也就是说，如果经济衰退发生，下一个重大政策举措更有可能是降息。这也意味着实际收益率或继续下降。汇丰表示，这也解释了联邦基金利率与两年期美债收益率之间的显著倒挂，以及2年期和10年期美债收益率的倒挂。观察此前加息周期收益率曲线的表现，汇丰发现：当投资者预计政策利率的下一个大动作是降息时，2年期联邦基金息差通常会进入均衡反转。随着美联储开始放松政策，倒挂通常会进一步加剧。 一旦基金利率达到宽松水平，这部分收益率曲线可能会向上倾斜。 鉴于美联储对中性利率的预期为2.5%，利率只要小于这一数字，收益率曲线都会出现正斜率。 我们发现曲线的长端提前移动，并注意到 10/30年期美债在2/10年期美债收益率此前再次正常化。2/10年期美债倒挂也建立了一个均衡水平，当美联储处于宽松模式时，这种利差往往更加稳定。 当加息周期出现转折时，2年期和10年期美债收益率都可能相对于刚开始的水平显着下降。 但当基金利率预计不会升至非常宽松的水平时，10年期美债收益率水平可能会更具粘性，这正是目前的普遍预测所暗示的。美联储可能会跳过6月，在7月的会议上加息，这在很大程度上已被市场定价。汇丰指出，无论如何，美联储将在2024年降息，并且与其点阵图保持一致。不过，那么如果远期曲线已经消化了这一预期，那么未来收益率怎么会下降呢？汇丰指出，目前的收益率反映了投资者的避险情绪。将于2025年12月15日到期的美债（票面利率为 4%）——年底2年期基准美债的代表，目前收益率为4.25%，高于联邦基金利率上限100个基点。在美联储不放宽政策的情况下，美债收益率预计将上升约20基点，但在宽松的情况下，收益率可能下降至少50个基点，具体取决于降息的幅度和速度。汇丰认为，如果美国经济实现软着陆，美联储或在7月加息25个基点，但硬着陆的假设情景下，可能会需要大幅下调利率。截止周五收盘，10年期美债收益率小幅走高，报3.745%。相比之下， Forward和彭博汇总的2023年底的预测中值分别为3.64%和3.37%，高于汇丰预测约100个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLT":0.9,"HSBC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186309656957032,"gmtCreate":1686525035900,"gmtModify":1686525039248,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186309656957032","repostId":"2342526556","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2342526556","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1686442589,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2342526556?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-11 08:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs: OPEC production cuts will push crude oil prices to $90 a barrel this year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2342526556","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，在沙特阿拉伯决定减产后，原油价格未能维持最初的升势，但高盛的Jeff Currie认为，此举最终将推动原油库存减少，使油价在今年年底前升至90美元/桶。Currie表示:“由于欧佩克减产，特别是在第三和第四季度，你将看到大量的现货库存减少，(这将)把油价推到90美元/桶。”此外，关注基本面的花旗分析师表示，沙特的减产不太可能将油价维持在每桶80美元或90美元的高位，这表明到年底需求低迷，而非欧佩克供应将走强。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Zhitong Finance APP, crude oil prices failed to maintain their initial upward trend after Saudi Arabia decided to cut production, but...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Jeff Currie believes this move will ultimately drive down crude oil inventories, pushing oil prices to $90 per barrel by the end of the year.</p><p>Currie stated, \"Due to OPEC production cuts, especially in the third and fourth quarters, you will see a significant reduction in spot inventories, which will push oil prices to $90 per barrel.\"</p><p>Currie stated that rising interest rates have made storing oil too expensive, and investor interest may not recover until inventories begin to decline.</p><p>Furthermore, Citi analysts who focus on fundamentals say that Saudi Arabia's production cuts are unlikely to keep oil prices at a high level of $80 or $90 per barrel, indicating weak demand by the end of the year, rather than strengthening non-OPEC supply.</p><p>In addition, Edward Moya of Oanda stated, \"Next week will be a crucial period for oil prices as interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the People's Bank of China will determine the short-term outlook for the global economy.\"</p><p>Crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive week this week. As of press time, WTI crude futures were down 1.32% to $70.35 per barrel, and Brent crude futures were down 1.21% to $75.04 per barrel, marking their sixth weekly decline in the past eight weeks.</p><p>It is worth noting that on Thursday, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by more than $3 per barrel after reports that the United States and Iran were reaching a nuclear deal that would bring more supply. However, after the two countries denied the agreement, oil prices recovered some of the lost ground.</p><p>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>The ministry said late Friday that it plans to purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil as a strategic petroleum reserve at an average price of about $73 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy also stated that it has launched a new tender for another 3 million barrels, which will be delivered to SPR's Big Hill site in Texas in September.</p><p>It is worth noting that despite the decline in crude oil prices, the energy sector saw an increase.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLE\">SPDR Energy Index ETF</a>It rose 1.8% within a week, with Aemetis (AMTX.US) among the top five gainers rising 34.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPRT\">Sihanoukville fuel</a>Clean Energy Technologies (CETY.US) rose 28.9%, Cactus (WHD.US) rose 23.4%, and Cactus (WHD.US) rose 14.1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">Petrobras</a>- Prefer (PBR.A.US) rose 13.6%.</p><p>In addition, the four stocks with the largest declines in the energy and natural resources sector over the past five days are: US Goldmining (USGO.US) fell 17%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AUMN\">gold mining</a>(AUMN.US) fell 13.9%, Eco Wave Power (WAVE.US) fell 12.8%, and Battalion Oil (BATL.US) fell 12%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs: OPEC production cuts will push crude oil prices to $90 a barrel this year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs: OPEC production cuts will push crude oil prices to $90 a barrel this year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-11 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Zhitong Finance APP, crude oil prices failed to maintain their initial upward trend after Saudi Arabia decided to cut production, but...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Jeff Currie believes this move will ultimately drive down crude oil inventories, pushing oil prices to $90 per barrel by the end of the year.</p><p>Currie stated, \"Due to OPEC production cuts, especially in the third and fourth quarters, you will see a significant reduction in spot inventories, which will push oil prices to $90 per barrel.\"</p><p>Currie stated that rising interest rates have made storing oil too expensive, and investor interest may not recover until inventories begin to decline.</p><p>Furthermore, Citi analysts who focus on fundamentals say that Saudi Arabia's production cuts are unlikely to keep oil prices at a high level of $80 or $90 per barrel, indicating weak demand by the end of the year, rather than strengthening non-OPEC supply.</p><p>In addition, Edward Moya of Oanda stated, \"Next week will be a crucial period for oil prices as interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the People's Bank of China will determine the short-term outlook for the global economy.\"</p><p>Crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive week this week. As of press time, WTI crude futures were down 1.32% to $70.35 per barrel, and Brent crude futures were down 1.21% to $75.04 per barrel, marking their sixth weekly decline in the past eight weeks.</p><p>It is worth noting that on Thursday, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by more than $3 per barrel after reports that the United States and Iran were reaching a nuclear deal that would bring more supply. However, after the two countries denied the agreement, oil prices recovered some of the lost ground.</p><p>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>The ministry said late Friday that it plans to purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil as a strategic petroleum reserve at an average price of about $73 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy also stated that it has launched a new tender for another 3 million barrels, which will be delivered to SPR's Big Hill site in Texas in September.</p><p>It is worth noting that despite the decline in crude oil prices, the energy sector saw an increase.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLE\">SPDR Energy Index ETF</a>It rose 1.8% within a week, with Aemetis (AMTX.US) among the top five gainers rising 34.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPRT\">Sihanoukville fuel</a>Clean Energy Technologies (CETY.US) rose 28.9%, Cactus (WHD.US) rose 23.4%, and Cactus (WHD.US) rose 14.1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">Petrobras</a>- Prefer (PBR.A.US) rose 13.6%.</p><p>In addition, the four stocks with the largest declines in the energy and natural resources sector over the past five days are: US Goldmining (USGO.US) fell 17%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AUMN\">gold mining</a>(AUMN.US) fell 13.9%, Eco Wave Power (WAVE.US) fell 12.8%, and Battalion Oil (BATL.US) fell 12%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/943827.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/943827.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2342526556","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，在沙特阿拉伯决定减产后，原油价格未能维持最初的升势，但高盛的Jeff Currie认为，此举最终将推动原油库存减少，使油价在今年年底前升至90美元/桶。Currie表示:“由于欧佩克减产，特别是在第三和第四季度，你将看到大量的现货库存减少，(这将)把油价推到90美元/桶。”Currie称，利率上升使得储存石油的成本过高，在库存开始下降之前，投资者的兴趣可能不会恢复。此外，关注基本面的花旗分析师表示，沙特的减产不太可能将油价维持在每桶80美元或90美元的高位，这表明到年底需求低迷，而非欧佩克供应将走强。另外，Oanda的Edward Moya表示：\"由于美联储、欧洲央行和中国央行的利率决定将决定全球经济的短期前景，因此下周将是油价的重要时期。\"本周，原油价格连续第二周下跌，截至发稿，WTI原油期货下跌1.32%，至70.35美元/桶，布伦特原油期货下跌1.21%，报75.04美元/桶，这是过去8周以来的第6周下跌。值得一提的是，周四，WTI原油和布伦特原油价格均下跌逾3美元/桶，此前有报道称，美国和伊朗正在达成一项核协议，该协议将带来更多供应。然而，在两国否认该协议后，油价收复了部分失地。此外，美国能源部周五晚些时候表示，计划购买300万桶原油作为战略石油储备，平均价格约为73美元/桶。美国能源部还表示，其已经启动了另外300万桶的新招标，将于9月交付到德克萨斯州的SPR的Big Hill站点。值得注意的是，尽管原油价格下跌，但能源板块却迎来上涨，SPDR能源指数ETF一周内上涨了1.8%，其中涨幅前五名的包括Aemetis(AMTX.US)上涨了34.7%，西港燃料上涨了28.9%，Clean Energy Technologies(CETY.US)上涨了23.4%，Cactus(WHD.US)上涨了14.1%，巴西石油公司-Prefer(PBR.A.US)上涨了13.6%。此外，在过去5天里，能源和自然资源板块跌幅最大的4只股票是：U.S. Goldmining(USGO.US)下跌了17%， 黄金矿业(AUMN.US)下跌了13.9%，Eco Wave Power(WAVE.US)下跌了12.8%，Battalion Oil(BATL.US)下跌了12%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186309522153576,"gmtCreate":1686525002988,"gmtModify":1686525005509,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186309522153576","repostId":"2342696765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183197555306616,"gmtCreate":1685747138836,"gmtModify":1685747142256,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183197555306616","repostId":"1162636330","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162636330","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1685711670,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162636330?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-02 21:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Inflation expectations may be the reason to raise interest rates in June, but it may be a contrarian indicator!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162636330","media":"金十数据","summary":"如果美联储继续加息，而不是暂停，罪魁祸首之一可能正是继续上升的通胀预期。但是，这背后的逻辑可能竟是错的……过去一年，整体通胀水平有所下降，但消费者对未来通胀的预期并没有随之回落。相反，根据密歇根大学消","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If the Fed continues its rate hike, rather than pausing, one of the culprits could be precisely inflation expectations that continue to rise. However, the logic behind this may be wrong...<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overall inflation levels have declined over the past year, but consumer expectations for future inflation have not fallen with them. Instead, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Survey,<strong>Five-year inflation expectations have been slowly rising in recent months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the survey, the median consumer expectation for the annual rate of inflation over the next five years is 3.1%, the highest level since 2008, and the average expectation is the highest level since the mid-1990s.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Rising inflation expectations have worried many, who think they will fulfill themselves</strong>That is, if consumers expect high inflation to continue in the future, then their spending behavior will push inflation up further. If the Fed decides at its mid-June meeting<strong>Continuing rate hike, rather than pressing the \"pause\" button, one of the culprits may be none other than consumers' stubbornly high inflation expectations.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, financial reporter Mark Hulbert believes that this theory is not supported by enough historical evidence. He said,<strong>Over the past few decades, consumer inflation expectations have often been an inverse indicator,</strong>When inflation expectations are above average inflation, the subsequent five years of inflation are below average and vice versa.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb32897dd58323a320f26f8ff71c237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"629\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The figure above illustrates this inverse relationship. The figure compares the monthly real inflation with the inflation expectation five years ago. When the green line is at a positive value, it means that the real inflation is proportional to the inflation expectation; When the green line is negative, the two are inversely proportional. The last time it was directly proportional was in the mid-1990s and since then,<strong>The two are almost always negatively correlated and have reached their lowest negative value in the last five years.</strong>While this is no reason to celebrate rising inflation expectations, it at least shows that there shouldn't be too much concern about future inflation performance.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Separately, Hulbert also tested it with the 5-year breakeven inflation rate (the difference between the 5-year Treasury Bond nominal yield and the 5-year TIPS yield), the short-and long-term professional inflation forecasts conducted quarterly by the Philadelphia Fed, and the inflation expectation model released by the Cleveland Fed. The test covers data from 2003 to the present,<strong>It was found that the best assessment of the relationship between real inflation and inflation expectations was the Cleveland Fed model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The model now forecasts inflation at an annual rate of 2.2% over the next five years,</strong>Enough to get close to the Fed's 2% inflation target. If this prediction is accurate,<strong>Enough to make the Fed not rate hike at its June meeting.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation expectations may be the reason to raise interest rates in June, but it may be a contrarian indicator!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation expectations may be the reason to raise interest rates in June, but it may be a contrarian indicator!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-02 21:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If the Fed continues its rate hike, rather than pausing, one of the culprits could be precisely inflation expectations that continue to rise. However, the logic behind this may be wrong...<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overall inflation levels have declined over the past year, but consumer expectations for future inflation have not fallen with them. Instead, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Survey,<strong>Five-year inflation expectations have been slowly rising in recent months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the survey, the median consumer expectation for the annual rate of inflation over the next five years is 3.1%, the highest level since 2008, and the average expectation is the highest level since the mid-1990s.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Rising inflation expectations have worried many, who think they will fulfill themselves</strong>That is, if consumers expect high inflation to continue in the future, then their spending behavior will push inflation up further. If the Fed decides at its mid-June meeting<strong>Continuing rate hike, rather than pressing the \"pause\" button, one of the culprits may be none other than consumers' stubbornly high inflation expectations.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, financial reporter Mark Hulbert believes that this theory is not supported by enough historical evidence. He said,<strong>Over the past few decades, consumer inflation expectations have often been an inverse indicator,</strong>When inflation expectations are above average inflation, the subsequent five years of inflation are below average and vice versa.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb32897dd58323a320f26f8ff71c237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"629\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The figure above illustrates this inverse relationship. The figure compares the monthly real inflation with the inflation expectation five years ago. When the green line is at a positive value, it means that the real inflation is proportional to the inflation expectation; When the green line is negative, the two are inversely proportional. The last time it was directly proportional was in the mid-1990s and since then,<strong>The two are almost always negatively correlated and have reached their lowest negative value in the last five years.</strong>While this is no reason to celebrate rising inflation expectations, it at least shows that there shouldn't be too much concern about future inflation performance.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Separately, Hulbert also tested it with the 5-year breakeven inflation rate (the difference between the 5-year Treasury Bond nominal yield and the 5-year TIPS yield), the short-and long-term professional inflation forecasts conducted quarterly by the Philadelphia Fed, and the inflation expectation model released by the Cleveland Fed. The test covers data from 2003 to the present,<strong>It was found that the best assessment of the relationship between real inflation and inflation expectations was the Cleveland Fed model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The model now forecasts inflation at an annual rate of 2.2% over the next five years,</strong>Enough to get close to the Fed's 2% inflation target. If this prediction is accurate,<strong>Enough to make the Fed not rate hike at its June meeting.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114137\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114137","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162636330","content_text":"如果美联储继续加息，而不是暂停，罪魁祸首之一可能正是继续上升的通胀预期。但是，这背后的逻辑可能竟是错的……过去一年，整体通胀水平有所下降，但消费者对未来通胀的预期并没有随之回落。相反，根据密歇根大学消费者调查，近几个月的五年通胀预期一直在缓慢上升。调查显示，消费者对未来五年通胀年率的预期中值达到3.1%，自2008年以来最高水平，预期均值则是自1990年代中期以来的最高水平。通胀预期上升让很多人感到担忧，他们认为通胀预期会自我应验，也就是说，如果消费者预期未来继续存在高通胀，那么他们的消费行为将进一步推高通胀。如果美联储在6月中旬的会议上决定继续加息，而不是按下“暂停”按钮，罪魁祸首之一可能正是消费者居高不下的通胀预期。然而，财经记者Mark Hulbert却认为，这一理论却并没有得到足够的历史证据支撑。他表示，过去几十年中，消费者的通胀预期反而往往是一个反向指标，当通胀预期高于平均通胀水平时，随后五年的通胀却低于平均水平，反之亦然。上图就说明了这种反比关系。图中对比了每月实际通胀与5年前的通胀预期，当绿色线处于正值时，说明实际通胀与通胀预期呈正比；绿线处于负值时，两者成反比。上一次呈正比是在20世纪90年代中期，从那以后，两者几乎一直是负相关，并且在最近五年达到了最低的负值。虽然这不能成为庆祝通胀预期上升的理由，但至少说明不应该对未来通胀表现过于担忧。另外，Hulbert还用5年盈亏平衡通胀率（5年期国债名义收益率与5年期TIPS收益率之差）、费城联储每季度进行的短期和长期专业通胀预测以及克利夫兰联储发布的通胀预期模型进行测试。测试覆盖2003年至今的数据，发现最能评估实际通胀与通胀预期之间的关系的，是克利夫兰联储模型。该模型目前预测未来五年的通胀年率为2.2%，足以接近美联储2%的通胀目标。如果这个预测准确的话，足以使美联储在6月的会议上不加息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183197474820104,"gmtCreate":1685747111804,"gmtModify":1685747115359,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183197474820104","repostId":"2340710504","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2340710504","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1685714520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2340710504?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-02 22:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind Tesla's price war, huge IRA subsidies add fuel to the fire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2340710504","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国总统拜登签署的气候法案为埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车价格战提供了更多火力。智通财经APP获悉，研究机构Benchmark Mineral Intelligence预测，根据《通胀削减法案》(IRA)，特","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The climate bill signed into law by US President Joe Biden is providing more firepower to Elon Musk's EV price war. Zhitong Finance APP learned that research organization Benchmark Mineral Intelligence predicts that under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) and its battery partners will receive about $1.8 billion in production tax credits this year, a windfall that far exceeds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>(GM.US) and LG Energy Solutions' estimated $480 million. Another competitor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>(F.US) won't start benefiting from the Act's battery manufacturing tax credit until 2025.</p><p>IRAs offer plenty of incentives to battery suppliers and automakers that produce in the U.S., and crucially, the more batteries and electric vehicles a company produces in the U.S., the more money it receives through tax credits.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Will be a big winner of IRA production tax credits</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f65380865ccdcd602f488d3ab7f6925\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"603\"/></p><p>Tesla is way ahead of traditional automakers in producing eligible products. Nearly a decade ago, Tesla broke ground with Panasonic on a battery plant in Nevada.</p><p>\"We will take full advantage of this in the coming years,\" Tesla's chief financial officer Zachary Kirkhorn said in January.</p><p><strong>A fierce battle</strong></p><p>Tesla has said it expects to use the money to continue cutting prices for consumers as part of the company's strategy to sacrifice short-term profit margins to boost sales amid a backdrop of inflation and increased competition. Musk's price cutting strategy gives<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>And established automakers such as Ford, which already face significant earnings challenges in electrifying their product lines.</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter estimates that Tesla's average selling price of cars could drop by $125 per quarter over the next two years due to the production tax credit, but it won't affect profit margins.</p><p>Even Musk approved of the bill's enormous potential payoff. In a recent media interview, he called the tax credit \"helpful\" and said the IRA is a \"very good\" bill.</p><p>\"Tesla will get more from the IRA than any other company because they are already producing batteries in large quantities,\" said Austin Devaney, chief commercial officer of Piedmont Lithium, which has supply agreements with Tesla and battery maker LG.</p><p>It is difficult to estimate exactly how much tax credit automakers and battery makers will receive in 2023 and beyond, as that number depends on EV sales using U.S. -made batteries, as well as revenue-sharing agreements between partners.</p><p>These variables may explain why Tesla's forecast tax credits are lower than those of Benchmark Mineral, which includes Panasonic's share. Yield forecasts may also vary. Tesla projected in January that the manufacturing tax credit in the 2023 IRA could mean the company receives between $150 million and $250 million per quarter, or as much as $1 billion for the full year.</p><p>GM said it expects to receive $300 million in tax credits this year and plans to build 1 million electric vehicles a year by 2025, generating between $3.5 billion and $5.5 billion if they all sell out.</p><p>Ford declined to say how much tax credit it would receive, but the company plans to boost annual global EV production to 600,000 units by the end of this year and 2 million by the end of 2026.</p><p>Tax credits will be phased out starting in 2030, so there is an urgent need to get battery plants up and running quickly. Guidehouse Insights analyst Sam Abuelsamid said the flood of new EV models will exacerbate the price war as car companies make more cars to receive more subsidies.</p><p>\"The next three to five years are going to be tough for everyone in this industry and it's going to be a tough fight,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Tesla's price war, huge IRA subsidies add fuel to the fire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Tesla's price war, huge IRA subsidies add fuel to the fire\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-02 22:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The climate bill signed into law by US President Joe Biden is providing more firepower to Elon Musk's EV price war. Zhitong Finance APP learned that research organization Benchmark Mineral Intelligence predicts that under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) and its battery partners will receive about $1.8 billion in production tax credits this year, a windfall that far exceeds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>(GM.US) and LG Energy Solutions' estimated $480 million. Another competitor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>(F.US) won't start benefiting from the Act's battery manufacturing tax credit until 2025.</p><p>IRAs offer plenty of incentives to battery suppliers and automakers that produce in the U.S., and crucially, the more batteries and electric vehicles a company produces in the U.S., the more money it receives through tax credits.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Will be a big winner of IRA production tax credits</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f65380865ccdcd602f488d3ab7f6925\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"603\"/></p><p>Tesla is way ahead of traditional automakers in producing eligible products. Nearly a decade ago, Tesla broke ground with Panasonic on a battery plant in Nevada.</p><p>\"We will take full advantage of this in the coming years,\" Tesla's chief financial officer Zachary Kirkhorn said in January.</p><p><strong>A fierce battle</strong></p><p>Tesla has said it expects to use the money to continue cutting prices for consumers as part of the company's strategy to sacrifice short-term profit margins to boost sales amid a backdrop of inflation and increased competition. Musk's price cutting strategy gives<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>And established automakers such as Ford, which already face significant earnings challenges in electrifying their product lines.</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter estimates that Tesla's average selling price of cars could drop by $125 per quarter over the next two years due to the production tax credit, but it won't affect profit margins.</p><p>Even Musk approved of the bill's enormous potential payoff. In a recent media interview, he called the tax credit \"helpful\" and said the IRA is a \"very good\" bill.</p><p>\"Tesla will get more from the IRA than any other company because they are already producing batteries in large quantities,\" said Austin Devaney, chief commercial officer of Piedmont Lithium, which has supply agreements with Tesla and battery maker LG.</p><p>It is difficult to estimate exactly how much tax credit automakers and battery makers will receive in 2023 and beyond, as that number depends on EV sales using U.S. -made batteries, as well as revenue-sharing agreements between partners.</p><p>These variables may explain why Tesla's forecast tax credits are lower than those of Benchmark Mineral, which includes Panasonic's share. Yield forecasts may also vary. Tesla projected in January that the manufacturing tax credit in the 2023 IRA could mean the company receives between $150 million and $250 million per quarter, or as much as $1 billion for the full year.</p><p>GM said it expects to receive $300 million in tax credits this year and plans to build 1 million electric vehicles a year by 2025, generating between $3.5 billion and $5.5 billion if they all sell out.</p><p>Ford declined to say how much tax credit it would receive, but the company plans to boost annual global EV production to 600,000 units by the end of this year and 2 million by the end of 2026.</p><p>Tax credits will be phased out starting in 2030, so there is an urgent need to get battery plants up and running quickly. Guidehouse Insights analyst Sam Abuelsamid said the flood of new EV models will exacerbate the price war as car companies make more cars to receive more subsidies.</p><p>\"The next three to five years are going to be tough for everyone in this industry and it's going to be a tough fight,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/940178.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8541380317eba7ef07da7c529e879c07","relate_stocks":{"LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4588":"碎股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/940178.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2340710504","content_text":"美国总统拜登签署的气候法案为埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车价格战提供了更多火力。智通财经APP获悉，研究机构Benchmark Mineral Intelligence预测，根据《通胀削减法案》(IRA)，特斯拉(TSLA.US)及其电池合作伙伴今年将获得约18亿美元的生产税收抵免，这笔意外之财远远超过通用汽车(GM.US)和LG能源解决方案预计的4.8亿美元。另一家竞争对手福特汽车(F.US)要到 2025 年才能开始从该法案的电池制造税收抵免中获益。IRA为在美国生产的电池供应商和汽车制造商提供了大量激励措施，而且至关重要的是，一家公司在美国生产的电池和电动汽车越多，它通过税收抵免获得的资金就越多。特斯拉将成为IRA生产税收抵免的大赢家特斯拉在生产符合条件的产品方面远远领先于传统汽车制造商。近十年前，特斯拉与松下在内华达州的一家电池厂破土动工。特斯拉首席财务官Zachary Kirkhorn今年1月表示:“未来几年，我们将充分利用这一优势。”一场恶战特斯拉曾表示，预计将利用这笔资金继续为消费者降价，这是该公司在通胀和竞争加剧的背景下牺牲短期利润率以提振销量的战略的一部分。马斯克的降价策略给通用汽车和福特等老牌汽车制造商带来压力，这些公司在电气化产品线方面已经面临着巨大的盈利挑战。Piper Sandler分析师 Alexander Potter估计，由于生产税收抵免，未来两年特斯拉每季度的汽车平均售价可能会下降125美元，但不会影响利润率。就连马斯克也对这项法案带来的巨大潜在回报表示赞同。在最近接受媒体采访时，他称税收抵免“很有帮助”，并表示IRA是一项“非常好”的法案。皮埃蒙特锂业公司首席商务官Austin Devaney表示:“特斯拉从IRA中获得的收益将比其他任何公司都多，因为他们已经在大量生产电池。”皮埃蒙特锂业公司与特斯拉及电池制造商LG签订了供应协议。很难准确估计汽车制造商和电池制造商在2023年及以后将获得多少税收抵免，因为这个数字取决于使用美国制造的电池的电动汽车销量，以及合作伙伴之间的收入分配协议。这些变量或许可以解释为什么特斯拉预测的税收抵免低于Benchmark Mineral 的预测，后者包括松下的份额。产量预测也可能有所不同。特斯拉1月份预计，2023年IRA中的制造业税收抵免可能意味着该公司每季度获得1.5亿至2.5亿美元，或全年高达10亿美元。通用汽车表示，预计今年将获得3亿美元的税收抵免，并计划到2025年每年生产100万辆电动汽车，如果全部销售一空，将产生35亿至55亿美元的收益。福特拒绝透露将获得多少税收抵免，但该公司计划到今年年底将全球电动汽车的年产量提高到60万辆，2026年底将达到200万辆。税收抵免将于2030年开始逐步取消，因此迫切需要让电池厂迅速启动并运行。Guidehouse Insights分析师Sam Abuelsamid表示，随着汽车公司生产更多汽车以获得更多补贴，新电动汽车车型的大量涌现将加剧价格战。他表示:“未来三到五年对这个行业的每个人来说都将是艰难的，这将是一场恶战。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183196761514128,"gmtCreate":1685747090497,"gmtModify":1685747094107,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"V","listText":"V","text":"V","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183196761514128","repostId":"1154091453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154091453","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1685716812,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154091453?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-02 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ford Motor U.S. EV Sales Down 13% YoY in May","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154091453","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月2日，福特汽车官网6月2日宣布，5月美国市场总销量为170,933辆，同比增加10.7%；其中，电动汽车销量为5,444辆，同比下降13%。2023年前5个月，该公司美国市场总销量为830,841","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The official website announced on June 2 that the total sales volume in the U.S. market in May was 170,933 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; Of these, EV sales were 5,444 units, down 13% year-on-year. In the first five months of 2023, the company sold a total of 830,841 units in the U.S. market, representing an increase of 8.8% year over year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74373c38eab9ea9253098eb85545f1b0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Motor U.S. EV Sales Down 13% YoY in May</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Motor U.S. EV Sales Down 13% YoY in May\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-06-02 22:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The official website announced on June 2 that the total sales volume in the U.S. market in May was 170,933 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; Of these, EV sales were 5,444 units, down 13% year-on-year. In the first five months of 2023, the company sold a total of 830,841 units in the U.S. market, representing an increase of 8.8% year over year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74373c38eab9ea9253098eb85545f1b0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c7511e646b4f70e751ca585ab218a0","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","F":"福特汽车","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154091453","content_text":"6月2日，福特汽车官网6月2日宣布，5月美国市场总销量为170,933辆，同比增加10.7%；其中，电动汽车销量为5,444辆，同比下降13%。2023年前5个月，该公司美国市场总销量为830,841辆，同比增加8.8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979035829,"gmtCreate":1685133025262,"gmtModify":1685133028802,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979035829","repostId":"1103762523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103762523","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1685107721,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103762523?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 21:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | US stocks opened higher, with Pinduoduo surging over 13% on positive earnings reports.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103762523","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘上涨42.65点，涨幅0.13%，报32807.30点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, May 26, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened 42.65 points higher, or 0.13%, at 32,807.30. The S&P 500 opened up 6.35 points, or 0.15%, at 4,157.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 32.55 points, or 0.26%, at 12,730.65.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7a0888a0ec7d0de8ce65d71c0aa76a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Pinduoduo surged over 13% at the opening, with Q1 revenue increasing by 58% year-on-year to 37.637 billion yuan and net profit increasing by 212% year-on-year to 8.101 billion yuan, both exceeding market expectations. Online marketing services and other revenue reached RMB 27.244 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbe3b5a29dfdfd1f42b25ec7bae1ff0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with TAL Education Group and NetEase rising by more than 3%, New Oriental and Full Truck Alliance rising by more than 2%, and Alibaba and JD.com rising by more than 1%.</p><p>Faraday Future rose 4.5% after the FF 91 successfully passed the FMVSS crash test, with the first phase of deliveries scheduled to begin on May 31, US time.</p><p>Mywell Technologies rose 22.5% after Q2 revenue guidance exceeded expectations, and expects double-digit year-over-year growth in artificial intelligence revenue in fiscal year 2024.</p><p>Ford rose 2% after Ford and Tesla reached an agreement to allow its North American electric vehicle customers to use Tesla's Supercharger network.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | US stocks opened higher, with Pinduoduo surging over 13% on positive earnings reports.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | US stocks opened higher, with Pinduoduo surging over 13% on positive earnings reports.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-26 21:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, May 26, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened 42.65 points higher, or 0.13%, at 32,807.30. The S&P 500 opened up 6.35 points, or 0.15%, at 4,157.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 32.55 points, or 0.26%, at 12,730.65.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7a0888a0ec7d0de8ce65d71c0aa76a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Pinduoduo surged over 13% at the opening, with Q1 revenue increasing by 58% year-on-year to 37.637 billion yuan and net profit increasing by 212% year-on-year to 8.101 billion yuan, both exceeding market expectations. Online marketing services and other revenue reached RMB 27.244 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbe3b5a29dfdfd1f42b25ec7bae1ff0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with TAL Education Group and NetEase rising by more than 3%, New Oriental and Full Truck Alliance rising by more than 2%, and Alibaba and JD.com rising by more than 1%.</p><p>Faraday Future rose 4.5% after the FF 91 successfully passed the FMVSS crash test, with the first phase of deliveries scheduled to begin on May 31, US time.</p><p>Mywell Technologies rose 22.5% after Q2 revenue guidance exceeded expectations, and expects double-digit year-over-year growth in artificial intelligence revenue in fiscal year 2024.</p><p>Ford rose 2% after Ford and Tesla reached an agreement to allow its North American electric vehicle customers to use Tesla's Supercharger network.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103762523","content_text":"5月26日（周五），道琼斯指数开盘上涨42.65点，涨幅0.13%，报32807.30点；标普500指数开盘上涨6.35点，涨幅0.15%，报4157.63点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨32.55点，涨幅0.26%，报12730.65点。拼多多开盘大涨超13%，Q1营收同比增长58%至376.37亿元，净利润同比增长212%至81.01亿元，均超市场预期；在线营销服务及其他收入272.44亿元，同比增长50%。同时，热门中概股多数走高，好未来、网易涨超3%，新东方、满帮涨超2%，阿里巴巴、京东涨超1%。法拉第未来涨4.5%，FF 91成功通过FMVSS碰撞测试，第一阶段交付计划于美国时间5月31日开始。迈威尔科技涨22.5%，Q2营收指引好于预期，预计2024财年人工智能营收将取得两位数的同比增幅。福特汽车涨2%，福特与特斯拉达成一项协议，允许其北美电动汽车客户使用特斯拉超级充电站网络。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979035184,"gmtCreate":1685133008849,"gmtModify":1685133012455,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979035184","repostId":"1111372068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111372068","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1685109408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111372068?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 21:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the economy not cooling down? US durable goods orders unexpectedly rose month-on-month in April.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111372068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"耐用品订单量连续两月上升，显示美国经济保持强劲。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chang Jiashuai</p><p>On May 26 local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in April, increasing by 1.1% month-on-month, compared to an expected 1% decrease. Meanwhile, the March data was revised upward from 3.2% growth to 3.3%. Durable goods orders have increased for two consecutive months.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e111c06dc1975300d5c5ec96ade04d44\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Excluding the transportation sector, orders for core durable goods decreased by 0.2%, while the expected value remained unchanged, compared to an increase of 0.3% in the previous value.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93d6e19d066e9eb1138af262d5bad42\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Orders for durable goods, excluding defense, fell 0.6%, compared to a 3.2% increase in the previous value.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fd1b71a497ea5d5d551275028f1a5c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Excluding aircraft and defense, U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.4% in April, compared to expectations of a 0.5% decrease and a 0.6% decrease in the previous month.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Durable goods refer to products such as computers, home appliances, and cars that can be used for at least three years and are not frequently purchased by consumers. Durable goods orders are one of the important data reflecting the state of the U.S. economy.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the unexpected increase in durable goods orders in April was mainly driven by growth in orders from the transportation sector. The transportation sector, which includes goods such as cars and bicycles, is large in scale and changes frequently. Excluding the transportation sector, the volume of durable goods orders decreased slightly by 0.2%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, durable goods orders have risen for two consecutive months, and the US core PCE figures for April, released at the same time, also rose more than expected, confirming that the US economy has not yet cooled down and strengthening expectations for subsequent Federal Reserve rate hike.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the economy not cooling down? US durable goods orders unexpectedly rose month-on-month in April.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the economy not cooling down? US durable goods orders unexpectedly rose month-on-month in April.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-26 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chang Jiashuai</p><p>On May 26 local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in April, increasing by 1.1% month-on-month, compared to an expected 1% decrease. Meanwhile, the March data was revised upward from 3.2% growth to 3.3%. Durable goods orders have increased for two consecutive months.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e111c06dc1975300d5c5ec96ade04d44\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Excluding the transportation sector, orders for core durable goods decreased by 0.2%, while the expected value remained unchanged, compared to an increase of 0.3% in the previous value.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93d6e19d066e9eb1138af262d5bad42\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Orders for durable goods, excluding defense, fell 0.6%, compared to a 3.2% increase in the previous value.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fd1b71a497ea5d5d551275028f1a5c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Excluding aircraft and defense, U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.4% in April, compared to expectations of a 0.5% decrease and a 0.6% decrease in the previous month.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Durable goods refer to products such as computers, home appliances, and cars that can be used for at least three years and are not frequently purchased by consumers. Durable goods orders are one of the important data reflecting the state of the U.S. economy.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the unexpected increase in durable goods orders in April was mainly driven by growth in orders from the transportation sector. The transportation sector, which includes goods such as cars and bicycles, is large in scale and changes frequently. Excluding the transportation sector, the volume of durable goods orders decreased slightly by 0.2%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, durable goods orders have risen for two consecutive months, and the US core PCE figures for April, released at the same time, also rose more than expected, confirming that the US economy has not yet cooled down and strengthening expectations for subsequent Federal Reserve rate hike.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689739\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289b82a155026055831ebe486b902c66","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689739","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1111372068","content_text":"作者：常嘉帅当地时间5月26日，美国商务部公布的数据显示，4月耐用品订单量意外上升，环比增长1.1%，预期为下降1%，同时，3月数据由增长3.2%上修为3.3%。耐用品订单量已连续两月增长。其中，剔除交通部门的核心耐用品订单量下降0.2%，预期值为不变，前值为上升0.3%。剔除国防的耐用品订单量下降0.6%，前值为增长3.2%。剔除飞机和国防后，美国4月耐用品订单量增长1.4%，预期为减少0.5%，前值为减少0.6%。耐用品指电脑、家电、汽车等至少可以使用三年、消费者不会经常购买的产品。耐用品订单量是反应美国经济状况的重要数据之一。美国商务部表示，4月耐用品订单数据的意外上行，主要受来自交通部门的订单增长驱动。交通部门包含汽车、自行车等商品，体量庞大且变化频繁。扣除交通部门的耐用品订单量略微下降0.2%。不过，耐用品订单量已连续两月上涨，再加上同时公布的美国4月核心PCE也超预期上行，印证美国经济仍未能降温，强化后续美联储加息的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979035323,"gmtCreate":1685132987963,"gmtModify":1685132991596,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979035323","repostId":"1140198668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140198668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1685111437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140198668?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The final reading of the U.S. consumer confidence index for May was 59.2, higher than expected.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140198668","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场情绪没有像刚公布初值那样低落。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May was 59.2, compared to the expected 57.7 and the previous reading of 57.7.</strong></p><p>Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, said that U.S. one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2% in May after surging to 4.6% in April. Uncertainty measured in these expected quartile intervals averaged 7.8 over the past 12 months, but fell to 5.7 this month, the lowest level of uncertainty in nearly two years. This suggests that after four months of wavering, consumer perceptions of short-term inflation may be stabilizing. Long-term inflation expectations rose slightly for the second consecutive month, but have remained within a narrow range of 2.9%-3.1% for 21 of the past 22 months.</p><p>Financial website Forexlive commented on the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May: Overall, it was a great report. Market sentiment was not as low as the preliminary reading had just been released, and inflation was not as strong. The proposed debt ceiling solution should be of greater help, but rising interest rates could drag down the economy next month.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The final reading of the U.S. consumer confidence index for May was 59.2, higher than expected.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe final reading of the U.S. consumer confidence index for May was 59.2, higher than expected.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-26 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May was 59.2, compared to the expected 57.7 and the previous reading of 57.7.</strong></p><p>Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, said that U.S. one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2% in May after surging to 4.6% in April. Uncertainty measured in these expected quartile intervals averaged 7.8 over the past 12 months, but fell to 5.7 this month, the lowest level of uncertainty in nearly two years. This suggests that after four months of wavering, consumer perceptions of short-term inflation may be stabilizing. Long-term inflation expectations rose slightly for the second consecutive month, but have remained within a narrow range of 2.9%-3.1% for 21 of the past 22 months.</p><p>Financial website Forexlive commented on the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May: Overall, it was a great report. Market sentiment was not as low as the preliminary reading had just been released, and inflation was not as strong. The proposed debt ceiling solution should be of greater help, but rising interest rates could drag down the economy next month.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/987ab6715591b2ad7014d2cf9348920e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140198668","content_text":"美国5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 59.2，预期57.7，前值57.7。密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，美国一年期通胀率预期在4月份飙升至4.6%后，5月份回落至4.2%。以这些预期的四分位数区间衡量的不确定性在过去12个月平均为7.8，但本月降至5.7，是近两年来的最低不确定性水平。这表明，在经历了四个月的摇摆之后，消费者对短期通胀的看法可能正在企稳。长期通胀预期连续第二个月小幅上升，但在过去22个月中有21个月保持在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅区间内。财经网站Forexlive评美国5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值：总的来说，这是一份很棒的报告，市场情绪没有像刚公布初值那样低落，通胀也没有那么强劲。债务上限解决方案的提出应该会有更大的帮助，但利率上升可能会拖累下个月的经济。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979035914,"gmtCreate":1685132972438,"gmtModify":1685132975777,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979035914","repostId":"1193134598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193134598","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1685114299,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193134598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 23:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Semiconductor stocks rose broadly, Maiwell Technology rose more than 25%, and Nvidia continued to rise about 1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193134598","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，费城半导体指数涨约4.5%，迈威尔科技涨超25%，博通涨近6%，美光科技涨超5%，AMD涨近5%，台积电涨超3%，英伟达涨1%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by about 4.5%, Maiwell Technology rose by more than 25%, Broadcom rose by nearly 6%, Micron Technology rose by more than 5%, AMD rose by nearly 5%, TSMC rose by more than 3%, and Nvidia rose by 1%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5874e0072898e83f53f32a2bfb413602\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4986d7a8f56a7688191d9f9184f5e61\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29182566f75fcc5cd0267a473437f6b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor stocks rose broadly, Maiwell Technology rose more than 25%, and Nvidia continued to rise about 1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor stocks rose broadly, Maiwell Technology rose more than 25%, and Nvidia continued to rise about 1%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-26 23:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by about 4.5%, Maiwell Technology rose by more than 25%, Broadcom rose by nearly 6%, Micron Technology rose by more than 5%, AMD rose by nearly 5%, TSMC rose by more than 3%, and Nvidia rose by 1%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5874e0072898e83f53f32a2bfb413602\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4986d7a8f56a7688191d9f9184f5e61\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29182566f75fcc5cd0267a473437f6b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7ec401ab6eae58e6c198e267509f35","relate_stocks":{"SOX":"费城半导体指数","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193134598","content_text":"周五，费城半导体指数涨约4.5%，迈威尔科技涨超25%，博通涨近6%，美光科技涨超5%，AMD涨近5%，台积电涨超3%，英伟达涨1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOX":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"MRVL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9094879084,"gmtCreate":1645123496313,"gmtModify":1676533999502,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094879084","repostId":"1121672214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121672214","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645108142,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121672214?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 22:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | New situation in Russia and the United States, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121672214","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘下跌217.21点，跌幅0.62%，报34717.06点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Thursday, February 17th, the Dow Jones index opened down 217.21 points, or 0.62%, at 34,717.06 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 31.63 points, or 0.71%, at 4443.38; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 123.85 points, or 0.88%, at 14,000.25.</p><p>On the news side,<b>Moscow expelled Gorman, deputy ambassador of the U.S. Embassy in Russia, according to the U.S. Embassy in Russia. While U.S. President Joe Biden said he had no intention of calling Russian President Vladimir Putin.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b10a186b96f63a2f266a82fd8623de9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"Is the American version hungry?\" DoorDash rose by more than 18%, Q4 revenue increased by 34% year-on-year and losses narrowed sharply, and the total amount of platform orders exceeded expectations.</p><p>Faraday rose by more than 5% in the future, after announcing that the production version of the electric vehicle FF 91 will be officially released on February 23rd.</p><p>Cisco rose 2.92% at the start of the session after the company's fiscal second-quarter results were better than expected and it raised its annual profit per share forecast.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">Marathon Oil</a>It rose more than 5%, and Q4 revenue increased by about 116.8% year-on-year and was better than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>down 4.7%, and the company's Q4 and full-year revenue reached a record high. However, some analysts say that the market has too much hope for Nvidia's financial report, and its performance is only slightly higher than or in line with expectations, which may cause the stock price to fall.</p><p>Cloud Computing Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLY\">Fastly</a>Plunged 28%, Q4 net loss widened year-over-year and 2022 revenue guidance missed expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>It fell by more than 13%, and Q4 net loss widened to $156 million compared with the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle Corp.</a>down 12.89%, with 2022 earnings guidance below expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | New situation in Russia and the United States, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | New situation in Russia and the United States, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-17 22:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Thursday, February 17th, the Dow Jones index opened down 217.21 points, or 0.62%, at 34,717.06 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 31.63 points, or 0.71%, at 4443.38; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 123.85 points, or 0.88%, at 14,000.25.</p><p>On the news side,<b>Moscow expelled Gorman, deputy ambassador of the U.S. Embassy in Russia, according to the U.S. Embassy in Russia. While U.S. President Joe Biden said he had no intention of calling Russian President Vladimir Putin.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b10a186b96f63a2f266a82fd8623de9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"Is the American version hungry?\" DoorDash rose by more than 18%, Q4 revenue increased by 34% year-on-year and losses narrowed sharply, and the total amount of platform orders exceeded expectations.</p><p>Faraday rose by more than 5% in the future, after announcing that the production version of the electric vehicle FF 91 will be officially released on February 23rd.</p><p>Cisco rose 2.92% at the start of the session after the company's fiscal second-quarter results were better than expected and it raised its annual profit per share forecast.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">Marathon Oil</a>It rose more than 5%, and Q4 revenue increased by about 116.8% year-on-year and was better than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>down 4.7%, and the company's Q4 and full-year revenue reached a record high. However, some analysts say that the market has too much hope for Nvidia's financial report, and its performance is only slightly higher than or in line with expectations, which may cause the stock price to fall.</p><p>Cloud Computing Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLY\">Fastly</a>Plunged 28%, Q4 net loss widened year-over-year and 2022 revenue guidance missed expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>It fell by more than 13%, and Q4 net loss widened to $156 million compared with the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle Corp.</a>down 12.89%, with 2022 earnings guidance below expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121672214","content_text":"2月17日（周四），道琼斯指数开盘下跌217.21点，跌幅0.62%，报34717.06点；标普500指数开盘下跌31.63点，跌幅0.71%，报4443.38点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌123.85点，跌幅0.88%，报14000.25点。消息面上，据美国驻俄罗斯大使馆消息，莫斯科将美国驻俄大使馆副大使戈尔曼驱逐出境。而美国总统拜登表示，无意打电话给俄罗斯总统普京。“美国版饿了么”DoorDash大涨超18%，Q4营收同比增长34%且亏损大幅收窄，平台订单总金额胜预期。法拉第未来涨超5%，此前宣布电动车FF 91量产版将在2月23日正式发布。思科盘初涨2.92%，该公司第二财季业绩好于预期，并上调年度每股利润预测。马拉松石油涨超5%，Q4营收同比大增约116.8%且好于预期。英伟达跌4.7%，公司Q4及全年收入创新高。但有分析称，市场对英伟达财报寄予希望过大，业绩仅小幅高于或者符合预期可能反而令股价下跌。云计算公司Fastly重挫28%，Q4净亏损同比扩大且2022年营收指引不及预期。Palantir跌超13%，Q4净亏损较去年同期扩大至1.56亿美元。美国雅宝公司跌12.89%，2022年盈利指引低于预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097923144,"gmtCreate":1645319555201,"gmtModify":1676534017846,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"P","listText":"P","text":"P","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097923144","repostId":"1124602561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097921361,"gmtCreate":1645319636591,"gmtModify":1676534017868,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097921361","repostId":"1198166588","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198166588","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645314743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198166588?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-20 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Do Hong Kong stocks deserve our gentle treatment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198166588","media":"兴证资管","summary":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after valuations fall to historical lows (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary. With Hong Kong stock valuations already at historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks is actually not very meaningful for investment. Recently, Wang Delun's team at Xingzheng Asset Management published an article pointing out that as one of the few \"low-lying areas\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks deserve investors to spend more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Wang Delun stated that the common bearish logic surrounding Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that when the price-to-book ratio of Hong Kong stocks is around 1 or below, a rebound will follow, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If we were to select the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks might have a place. Throughout 2021, the Hang Seng Index plummeted by 15%, underperforming A-shares and far underperforming major stock indices such as the US and Europe. Looking further at the performance of major sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the declines in some sectors can be described as \"far ahead of others\". For example, the Hong Kong-listed technology sector fell by as much as 33%, while the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively. Other sectors such as real estate and construction and consumer staples also fell by more than 10%. The continuous decline over the past year has filled the Hong Kong stock market with pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic correction, how should we view Hong Kong stocks from the current perspective?<b>According to micro-surveys conducted by some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A simple summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"Fed rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"10-year US Treasury yields rally will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and \"RMB exchange rate depreciation will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", while others suggest that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged into the 'deep sea' due to the collapse of US stocks\". Are these \"reasons\" for being bearish on Hong Kong stocks truly valid? We don't actually need to delve into the logical chain involved; we can get a glimpse of this by simply looking back at historical data.</p><p>The argument that \"Fed rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is not true based on historical data. We see,<b>Hong Kong stocks surged throughout the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006. Similarly, Hong Kong stocks also rose throughout the four rate hike by the Federal Reserve from 2016 to 2017. Based on experience, the Fed's rate hike seems to be the logic behind being bullish rather than bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The logic that \"an upward trend in the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the performance of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks over the past 10 years reveals that the latter repeatedly rose sharply during the former's period of significant upward movement.<b>Typical examples are 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The argument that \"a depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" remains unfounded.</b>We may be used to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rates. But in reality, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the weakening of the RMB exchange rate and the rise of Hong Kong stocks continued to \"coexist\". Conversely, we can also see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating steadily, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate cannot serve as the core logical support for judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially for predicting that Hong Kong stocks will weaken. Like them,<b>US stocks cannot be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong and US stocks over the past 10 years reveals that they have frequently diverged and diverged.<b>When US stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily rise; When US stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't follow suit.</b>Of course, if it is determined that the US stock market is about to collapse, then the Hong Kong stock market will generally suffer more. But the premise is, will the US stock market crash? Over the past 10 years, being bearish on US stocks and bearish on domestic housing prices have been the two viewpoints that are most easily and frequently refuted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A simple review of historical data reveals that the common bearish logic surrounding Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We will continue to use the method of historical summary and generalization, without discussing specific logic.<b>Let's review the trend of Hong Kong stocks simply from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after valuations fall to historical lows (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when Hong Kong stock valuations have fallen to historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks is actually not very meaningful for investment.</b>As one of the few \"low-lying areas\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks deserve more time to study and explore investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, while major global stock indices have continued to adjust, Hong Kong stocks have risen against the trend, which is enough to warrant our attention and seriousness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investing involves risk; decisions should be made with caution. The views expressed in this article represent only current judgments on the macro market and may be adjusted as the market environment changes. They do not constitute any relevant investment advice or predictions for any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645314773710","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Do Hong Kong stocks deserve our gentle treatment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDo Hong Kong stocks deserve our gentle treatment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">兴证资管</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-20 07:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after valuations fall to historical lows (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary. With Hong Kong stock valuations already at historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks is actually not very meaningful for investment. Recently, Wang Delun's team at Xingzheng Asset Management published an article pointing out that as one of the few \"low-lying areas\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks deserve investors to spend more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Wang Delun stated that the common bearish logic surrounding Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that when the price-to-book ratio of Hong Kong stocks is around 1 or below, a rebound will follow, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If we were to select the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks might have a place. Throughout 2021, the Hang Seng Index plummeted by 15%, underperforming A-shares and far underperforming major stock indices such as the US and Europe. Looking further at the performance of major sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the declines in some sectors can be described as \"far ahead of others\". For example, the Hong Kong-listed technology sector fell by as much as 33%, while the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively. Other sectors such as real estate and construction and consumer staples also fell by more than 10%. The continuous decline over the past year has filled the Hong Kong stock market with pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic correction, how should we view Hong Kong stocks from the current perspective?<b>According to micro-surveys conducted by some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A simple summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"Fed rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"10-year US Treasury yields rally will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and \"RMB exchange rate depreciation will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", while others suggest that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged into the 'deep sea' due to the collapse of US stocks\". Are these \"reasons\" for being bearish on Hong Kong stocks truly valid? We don't actually need to delve into the logical chain involved; we can get a glimpse of this by simply looking back at historical data.</p><p>The argument that \"Fed rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is not true based on historical data. We see,<b>Hong Kong stocks surged throughout the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006. Similarly, Hong Kong stocks also rose throughout the four rate hike by the Federal Reserve from 2016 to 2017. Based on experience, the Fed's rate hike seems to be the logic behind being bullish rather than bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The logic that \"an upward trend in the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the performance of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks over the past 10 years reveals that the latter repeatedly rose sharply during the former's period of significant upward movement.<b>Typical examples are 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The argument that \"a depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" remains unfounded.</b>We may be used to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rates. But in reality, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the weakening of the RMB exchange rate and the rise of Hong Kong stocks continued to \"coexist\". Conversely, we can also see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating steadily, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate cannot serve as the core logical support for judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially for predicting that Hong Kong stocks will weaken. Like them,<b>US stocks cannot be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong and US stocks over the past 10 years reveals that they have frequently diverged and diverged.<b>When US stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily rise; When US stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't follow suit.</b>Of course, if it is determined that the US stock market is about to collapse, then the Hong Kong stock market will generally suffer more. But the premise is, will the US stock market crash? Over the past 10 years, being bearish on US stocks and bearish on domestic housing prices have been the two viewpoints that are most easily and frequently refuted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A simple review of historical data reveals that the common bearish logic surrounding Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We will continue to use the method of historical summary and generalization, without discussing specific logic.<b>Let's review the trend of Hong Kong stocks simply from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after valuations fall to historical lows (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when Hong Kong stock valuations have fallen to historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks is actually not very meaningful for investment.</b>As one of the few \"low-lying areas\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks deserve more time to study and explore investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, while major global stock indices have continued to adjust, Hong Kong stocks have risen against the trend, which is enough to warrant our attention and seriousness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investing involves risk; decisions should be made with caution. The views expressed in this article represent only current judgments on the macro market and may be adjusted as the market environment changes. They do not constitute any relevant investment advice or predictions for any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344\">兴证资管</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198166588","content_text":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管王德伦团队发文指出，作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得投资者花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。王德伦表示，当前常见的看空港股逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。反而是，历史经验显示，港股PB在1附近或以下，随后都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。原文如下：如果要评选2021年全球“最惨”的股票市场，港股可能有“一席之地”。2021年全年，恒生指数大跌15%，表现不及A股，并远差于美股及欧洲等主要股指。进一步看港股中主要板块的表现，部分板块的跌幅也可谓“一骑绝尘”。比如，港股科技板块跌幅高达33%，信息技术、医疗保健板块跌幅分别达到32%、28%，其他的如地产建筑、必选消费等板块跌幅也超过10%。近1年的跌跌不休，使港股市场充斥着悲观情绪。经历了近1年的剧烈调整后，站在当前时点，我们应该怎么看待港股？从部分机构的微观调研情况来看，悲观情绪依然占据主导。简单汇总继续看空港股的“理由”，既有“美联储加息会打压港股”、“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”、“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”等论调，也有观点提出“港股会因为美股崩盘而被拖下‘深海’”。这些看空港股的“理由”，是否真的成立？对此，我们实际上不必深纠里面的逻辑链条，只需要简单回溯历史数据，便能一窥究竟。“美联储加息会打压港股”，这一论调，从历史数据来看，并不成立。我们看到，2004年至2006年的美联储加息周期中，港股一路大涨。同样的，2016年至2017年，美联储前后4次加息中，港股也一路上涨。总结经验来看，美联储加息，似乎可以成为看多、而非看空港股的逻辑。“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”，这一逻辑，也没有历史数据的支持。简单比较10Y美债利率和港股的走势，可以发现，后者多次在前者大幅上行期间，一路大涨。典型的有，2007年、2009年下半年、2012年下半年至2013年、2015年2季度、2016年4季度，以及2020年至2021年1季度。“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”，这一论调，依然不成立。我们可能习惯于从汇率角度，去判断港股走势。但实际上，它们之间的关系，非常不稳定。比如，2013年4季度至2015年2季度，人民币汇率持续走弱的同时，港股出现大幅上涨。同样的，2016年2季度至2017年2季度，人民币汇率走弱和港股上涨，持续“共存”。相反，我们也可以看到，2020年下半年至今，人民币汇率一路升值，而港股“先涨后跌”。美联储加息、10Y美债利率上行、人民币汇率贬值，都无法成为判断港股走势、尤其是判定港股将走弱的核心逻辑支撑。与它们一样，美股，也不能简单用于判断港股的走势。简单回顾过去10年港股和美股的表现，能非常容易地发现，它们频繁分化、背离。美股涨的时候，港股不一定涨；美股跌的时候，港股很多时候也不会“跟”。当然，如果认定美股要崩盘，那港股一般会比较难受。但前提是，美股会崩盘吗？过去10年，看空美股和看空国内房价，一直是最容易、最高频被“打脸”的两个观点。简单回顾历史数据，就能直观地发现，当前常见的看空港股的逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。我们沿用历史归纳总结的方法，不讨论具体逻辑，简单从港股估值角度出发，回顾港股走势。经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。历史经验告诉了我们，在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得我们花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。2022年初至今，全球主要股指持续调整之际，港股“逆势”上涨，已经足够值得我们重视和认真对待。风险提示：投资有风险，决策需谨慎。本文所表达观点仅代表对宏观市场的当期判断，可能随市场环境变化而产生调整，不构成任何信息屏受众群体的任何相关投资建议与预测。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098238929,"gmtCreate":1644134711216,"gmtModify":1676533893588,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098238929","repostId":"2209328505","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036454829,"gmtCreate":1647205714198,"gmtModify":1676534201741,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yed","listText":"Yed","text":"Yed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036454829","repostId":"2219424094","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2219424094","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647141612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219424094?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-13 11:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Where will the market go amid geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219424094","media":"智通财经网","summary":"投资要点本周话题：地缘动荡与疫情下，市场将何去何从?1)  地缘因素短期内仍将支撑大宗商品价格高位震荡，俄乌冲突的演进态势将决定大宗商品价格上涨的可持续性。短期内，俄乌危机大概率难以解决。地缘政治风险","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Investment Points</p><p><b>This week's topic: Where will the market go amid geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic?</b></p><p>1) Geopolitical factors will continue to support high-level fluctuations in commodity prices in the short term, and the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the sustainability of the rise in commodity prices. The Russia-Ukraine crisis is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Geopolitical risks will continue to impact market sentiment, strengthening expectations of tightening supply and keeping related commodity prices high. Even if some countries choose to put pressure on commodity price increases by increasing production or finding alternative energy sources in the future, the unlikely change in the supply and demand pattern in the short term will limit the decline in commodity prices. Overall, given the prolonged geopolitical turmoil, commodity prices are likely to remain at high levels.</p><p>2) The Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish stance may put pressure on overvalued sectors. Against the backdrop of high inflation in the United States coupled with geopolitical conflicts exacerbating the inflationary dilemma, a policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve is likely a foregone conclusion. However, the recent continued escalation of geopolitical risks may affect the future prospects of US economic growth, which will lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious and flexible in its monetary policy decisions. Before a sharp decline in US stocks, the US economy, and inflation occurs, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance will continue to exceed expectations. Even if the pace of rate hike slows down in the short term, the overall tightening is likely to exceed expectations. Judging from recent signals released by the Federal Reserve, March may favor rate hike by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points, but the timing of the shrinking balance sheet is likely to be earlier, and the possibility of a \"shrinking balance sheet\" beginning in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.</p><p>3) The disruption caused by the domestic epidemic has strengthened the \"offensive and defensive\" allocation logic. Recently, with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the high incidence of COVID-19 outbreaks overseas, and the large proportion of Omeprone infections in neighboring countries and regions, the pressure on domestic prevention and control is expected to further increase. With the recurring pandemic, the recovery in consumption has weakened. Assuming stronger epidemic prevention and control measures are taken in the future, the role of exports in driving the economy may weaken this year. Weak consumption and exports may put more severe downward pressure on the economy in the short term, but in the medium term, it will most likely guide policies to increase support for stabilizing growth. Market recovery will take time, but the end of the correction may be drawing near.</p><p>4) Which industry segments are revising their earnings forecasts upwards? Upstream is strong, while midstream and downstream are under pressure. March and April are a good window of opportunity to observe high-growth industries throughout the year. The market in March has already begun to gradually reflect the performance expectations of the first quarter reports. In mid-to-late April, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of annual and first quarter reports. The market often has a seasonal characteristic of \"spring restlessness and decision-making in April\". After the annual and first quarter reports are disclosed, the market will generally adjust its profit forecasts for listed companies. There is still disagreement in the market about whether efforts to stabilize growth are effective. Therefore, we are trying to find out which companies' recovery to stabilize growth is sustainable by looking for marginal changes in profit forecasts, and what the expected changes in fundamentals are.</p><p>Investment highlights: We will continue to focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks, and recommend paying attention to domestic substitution, military industry, anti-epidemic efforts, and gold sectors. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts triggering volatility in global capital markets, a sharp rise in risk aversion, and the ongoing sporadic outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in many parts of China, investment opportunities in undervalued blue-chip stocks remain the most stable theme in the market. Although the overall valuation of growth stocks is constrained by rising inflation, the following sub-sectors are still worth paying attention to in terms of specific allocation: 1) For the demand for domestic substitution in the West as a whole: This crisis has made the relationship between the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK and the US closer. From the perspective of supply chain security, except for the US, the domestic substitution of key components from the entire Western alliance may accelerate in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to: upstream semiconductor materials, Huawei's chip-related software ecosystem, etc. 2) With the emergence of modern Western equipment during the war, the increasing nuclear deterrence between the two sides, the military industry, especially OEMs that have benefited from the final year of the three-year pilot program for state-owned enterprise reform this year, deserve close attention. 3) In the pharmaceutical sector, considering the transmissibility of new viruses, in addition to nucleic acid testing and ventilators, focus should be placed on new vaccines such as mRNA. 4) Risk aversion is affecting the market. With high overseas inflation, geopolitical conflicts coupled with the global economic downturn, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of the gold sector.</p><p>Risk warning: Intensifying geopolitical unrest, an unexpected outbreak of the Omicron epidemic in China, an unexpected tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic monetary policy liquidity, and the publicly available information used in the research report may be outdated or untimely.</p><p>text</p><p><b>This week's topic: Where will the market go amid geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic?</b></p><p><b>1.1 Geopolitical factors will continue to support commodity prices in the short term.</b></p><p>Recently, geopolitical risks have continued to stir up the market. Due to the unique characteristics of Russia and Ukraine in the pricing of certain resources globally, the dispute between the two countries may lead to an increase in commodity prices. Apart from crude oil, whose prices are already at historical highs, the prices of agrochemical products and non-ferrous metals have generally risen. The spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also affected the international logistics market, causing shipping prices to rise. The reasons for this include not only geopolitical conflicts further exacerbating the already tight energy, crop, and metal supply situation, but also transportation disruptions and market panic caused by Western sanctions against Russia.</p><p>The geopolitical conflict is not over yet, and market expectations mainly follow the changes and fluctuations in the situation between Russia and Ukraine and quickly reflect the trend of commodity prices. On March 9, initial signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine had already had a significant impact on the capital market, with oil and non-ferrous metal prices plummeting that day. However, this collective decline in commodity prices actually reflects more changes in sentiment than improvements in fundamentals, so it is too early to say at this time that the \"price increase wave\" is coming to an end. Recently, although the VIX index has fallen somewhat, it remains at a high level, indicating that market risk aversion has not yet completely subsided.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the sustainability of rising commodity prices. The current outlook for the Russia-Ukraine conflict is also unclear. Judging from the multiple rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent disclosures by both sides, the two sides have taken a hardline stance and have not yet reached an agreement on a ceasefire agreement. Moreover, the frequent supply of weapons and equipment by NATO countries to Ukraine has also hindered the easing of the conflict. The Russia-Ukraine crisis is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Geopolitical risks will continue to impact market sentiment, with increased expectations of tightening supply pushing up related commodity prices. Even if some countries choose to put pressure on commodity price increases in the future by increasing production (such as some OPEC members' statements to increase crude oil production) or finding alternative energy sources (the EU proposes to accelerate the promotion of renewable energy), the unlikely change in the supply and demand pattern in the short term will limit the decline in commodity prices. Overall, given the prolonged geopolitical turmoil, commodity prices are likely to remain at high levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cdd2ef4d240452ced73725f02ac3e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff090db7fa96fcbb78bd9fdbdf8219b\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"780\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.2 The Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish stance may put pressure on overvalued sectors.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of high inflation in the United States coupled with geopolitical conflicts exacerbating the inflationary dilemma, a policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve may be a foregone conclusion. On March 10, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI rose 7.9% year-on-year in February, the highest increase in 40 years, and the core CPI rose to 6.4% year-on-year. Given that commodity prices may remain high due to geopolitical conflicts, there is a possibility that high inflation in the US economy will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. The severe inflation situation has reinforced the necessity for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, and the better-than-expected recovery in employment in March has also provided greater room for maneuver for the Federal Reserve to shift its monetary policy. Overall, the Fed's policy adjustment may be a foregone conclusion.</p><p>Since December of last year, the Federal Reserve has frequently released rate hike signals, mainly based on the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and the most urgent pressure on inflation. However, the recent escalation of geopolitical risks may affect the future prospects for US economic growth, leading the Federal Reserve to be more cautious and flexible in its monetary policy decisions.</p><p>Before a sharp decline in US stocks, the US economy, and inflation occurs, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is likely to continue to exceed expectations. Although geopolitical conflicts may inhibit future U.S. economic growth to some extent, the fundamental principles of economic normalization have not changed, and with inflation currently high, the Federal Reserve's immediate priority remains to strengthen the guidance of inflation expectations by maintaining a hawkish policy stance. Even if the pace of rate hike slows down in the short term, the overall tightening is likely to exceed expectations. Powell had previously signaled a clearer pace and intensity of tightening during his testimony before Congress regarding the semi-annual monetary policy report. In terms of rate hike, the Federal Reserve may prefer March rate hike of 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points, but the timing of the shrinking balance sheet is likely to be earlier, and the possibility of starting a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b7eacdc1fe87b4aa08a15685d974a3\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.3 Domestic epidemic disruptions strengthen the \"offensive and defensive\" allocation logic</b></p><p>Recently, sporadic outbreaks of the epidemic have occurred in multiple locations across The number of COVID-19 cases reported nationwide remains high, the number of provinces affected by the epidemic continues to increase, and the infected strains are mainly the Omicron variant. As of March 9, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps had reported 402 new locally transmitted confirmed cases and 435 asymptomatic locally transmitted infections. A new feature of this round of the epidemic is that since the 6th, the number of new locally transmitted asymptomatic infections has been higher than the number of new locally transmitted cases for four consecutive days.</p><p>The Omeprone variant spreads faster and has milder infection symptoms than other variants, making punctate sporadic or even local outbreaks more likely to occur. The high outbreak of COVID-19 overseas, coupled with a large proportion of Omeprone infections in neighboring countries and regions, is expected to further increase the pressure on domestic prevention and control. Under the direction of epidemic recovery, the demand for products related to epidemic prevention and control will remain high, and funds will mostly flow to ventilators, effective vaccines, and effective drugs.</p><p>With the recurring pandemic, the recovery in consumption has weakened. In addition to the lack of scenarios caused by epidemic prevention and control restrictions dragging down consumption, the pandemic also suppressed residents' consumption capacity and willingness, which is reflected in the fact that before the pandemic, the growth rate of residents' income and expenditure was similar, but the gap widened significantly after the pandemic. Currently, consumption recovery is an inevitable trend driven by policies to stabilize growth, but with the pandemic not yet fully under control, the consumption recovery is weakening.</p><p>Assuming stronger epidemic prevention and control measures are taken in the future, the role of exports in driving the economy may weaken this year. Over the past two years, strong export growth has been one of the most important driving forces supporting the resilience of my country's economy. However, as economies around the world gradually adapt to the \"normalization of the pandemic,\" after June 2021, my country's share of global exports has returned to 14%, the level before the pandemic. As overseas supply chains may begin to recover, coupled with rising labor costs in my country, export growth may be sluggish and under increasing pressure.</p><p>Weak consumption and exports will put more severe downward pressure on the economy in the short term, but in the medium term, it may guide policies to increase support for stabilizing growth. Market recovery will take time, but the end of the correction may be drawing near.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59f2a3c0a40eadb62b670af68dcdbb2\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528312a622c08c7c81d9aaf8023457a9\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.4 Which industry segments are revising their earnings forecasts upwards? Upstream is strong, while downstream is under pressure.</b></p><p>March and April are a good window of opportunity to observe high-growth industries throughout the year. The market in March has already begun to gradually reflect the performance expectations of the first quarter reports. In mid-to-late April, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of annual and first quarter reports. The market often has a seasonal characteristic of \"spring restlessness and decision-making in April\". After the annual and first quarter reports are disclosed, the market will generally adjust its profit forecasts for listed companies. There is still disagreement in the market about whether efforts to stabilize growth are effective. Therefore, we are trying to find out which companies' recovery to stabilize growth is sustainable by looking for marginal changes in profit forecasts, and what the expected changes in fundamentals are.</p><p>Overall, the upstream market is strong, while the midstream and downstream market are under pressure. The industries whose 2022 profit forecasts have been revised upwards are mainly in the infrastructure industry chain, the new energy vehicle industry chain, and the pharmaceutical sector. The primary sectors that have risen in the past two months include: non-ferrous metals (2.87%), basic chemicals (1.04%), power and utilities (0.84%), and steel (0.71%).</p><p>Upstream: The upward revision of raw material profits in the upstream sector focuses on infrastructure-related industries, among which rare metals, environmental protection and public utilities, and chemical raw materials have seen price increases. On the other hand, domestic economic and financial data for January and February will also be released, which will become an important basis for the market to judge the effect of the previous \"stabilizing growth\" policy and to predict the pace and intensity of subsequent policies. With the main theme of stabilizing growth being emphasized again, the layout of \"stabilizing growth\" in the short term and high-quality development in the long term is expected to continue, and the prosperity related to infrastructure is expected to continue.</p><p>In the midstream industry, the upward revision of profit forecasts is concentrated in sub-sectors with high demand, such as new energy batteries, automotive electronics, and lithium battery/photovoltaic/semiconductor equipment, whose prosperity remains high. Earnings forecasts for semiconductors, electronic components, and computer equipment in the TMT sector have been raised. Meanwhile, profit forecasts for the specialized machinery sector within the machinery and equipment industry have also continued to be raised. In mid-to-late March, on the one hand, indicators of the prosperity of popular sectors, such as new energy vehicle sales, were released one after another. Currently, there are significant differences in expectations for the prosperity of popular sectors in the market, and relevant data will become an important signal for confirming the prosperity. On the other hand, the prosperity of conceptual sectors such as semiconductor equipment, cloud computing, and optical communication may be showing a reversal trend.</p><p>In downstream consumption, profit forecasts for the commerce, agriculture and medical services, and medical distribution sectors have been significantly revised upward. Affected by both cost pressures and the setback in demand caused by the resurgence of the pandemic, the growth rate of the food and beverage industry has slowed down, and the performance of the consumer sector has also shown significant divergence. The retail sector has seen a significant reversal in expectations compared to the decline in profits in 2021, with the 2022 profit forecast raised by about 20%. Essential Consumer's performance has not yet seen a significant upward revision, and in the overall consumer sector, Essential Consumer's earnings expectations are still better than Essential Consumer's. However, in the short term, some grain commodities, including agrochemicals, are expected to rise in price due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Affected by this geopolitical conflict, global related prices...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>High prices may boost the prosperity of agricultural products and affect expectations for live pig prices. This aspect deserves continued observation.</p><p><b>1.5 Investment Highlights: We will continue to focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks; we recommend paying attention to domestic substitution, military industry, pandemic relief, and gold sectors.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts triggering volatility in global capital markets, a sharp rise in risk aversion, and the ongoing sporadic outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in many parts of China, investment opportunities in undervalued blue-chip stocks remain the most stable theme in the market. Although the overall valuation of growth stocks is constrained by rising inflation, the following sub-sectors are still worth paying attention to in terms of specific allocation:</p><p>1) Domestic substitution demand for the entire West: This crisis has caused the EU, Japan and South Korea to completely align themselves with the UK and the US. From the perspective of supply chain security, except for the US, the domestic substitution of key components from the entire Western alliance may accelerate in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to: semiconductor upstream materials, Huawei's chip-related software ecosystem, etc.</p><p>2) With the emergence of modern Western equipment during the war and the increasing nuclear deterrence between the two sides, the military industry, especially OEMs, which benefited from the final year of the three-year pilot program for state-owned enterprise reform this year, deserve close attention.</p><p>3) In medicine, epidemic prevention items, considering the transmission ability of the virus, in addition to nucleic acid testing, ventilators, etc., focus on new vaccines such as mRNA.</p><p>4) Risk aversion is affecting the market, overseas inflation remains high, geopolitical conflicts coupled with a global economic downturn, and it is recommended to pay attention to the investment value of the gold sector.</p><p><b>Market Review and Outlook</b></p><p>Style Index: The market generally fell this week. The CSI 500 and SME Composite Index led the decline. In terms of activity, turnover rates across all industries generally rebounded, with the turnover rate of the Shenzhen Component Index rising significantly.</p><p>Major industry categories: Healthcare and daily consumption performed relatively well this week, while discretionary consumption and real estate performed relatively poorly. In terms of activity, the energy turnover rate has declined significantly, while the healthcare turnover rate has rebounded significantly.</p><p>Primary industries: Primary industries generally declined this week, with home appliances and non-ferrous metals leading the decline. In terms of activity, the turnover rate in the pharmaceutical and media sectors rebounded relatively significantly, while the turnover rate in the defense and military industry declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b77bbe4f011209d0f61398519d4b870\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d58f4dc49d2ba695c284f3f2b140070\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>III. Emotional Indicator Tracking</b></p><p>Overall market activity: Since 2010, the average daily turnover rate across the A-share market has been roughly 0.4%-1.4%. After smoothing out on the 20th, the turnover rate of all A-shares declined slightly this week. As of March 11, the daily turnover rate reached 1.36%, which is at the historical 82.43rd percentile. The turnover rate of the ChiNext Index is roughly 2%-8%. After smoothing out on the 20th, the turnover rate of the ChiNext Index fluctuated upwards. As of March 11, 2022, the daily turnover rate of the ChiNext index was 13.50%, which is at the 90.6th percentile historically.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91bd77cd124660b4b931da83a84f0e2\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On-exchange margin trading: The margin trading balance rebounded slightly this week. As of March 10, the margin trading balance was 1.6194 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.63 billion yuan from last week. After smoothing out on the 5th, the proportion of margin buying in the total market turnover decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous week.</p><p>Newly listed stock indicators: After smoothing out on the 5th, the turnover rate of newly listed stocks rebounded slightly compared to last week. As of March 11, the average turnover rate of newly listed stocks on the 5th reached 9.12%, which is in the historical 87.14% percentile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b3f83e23e7b8c86169632226e8093d\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>IV. Valuation Indicator Tracking</b></p><p>Major industry valuations: Among the price-to-book (PB) valuations, the basic non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, defense and military, automotive, consumer services, food and beverage, and electronics industries have valuations higher than their historical averages;</p><p>Major industry valuations: Among PE valuations, the valuation levels of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, utilities, leisure services, electrical equipment, automobiles and comprehensive industries are higher than the historical average;</p><p>Industries with both PE and PB valuations at historically high levels: the food and beverage and automotive industries have valuations higher than their historical averages;</p><p>Major indices: Price-to-book (PB) valuations of the SSE 50 and ChiNext indices are higher than their historical averages;</p><p>Major indices: PE valuations of the SSE 50 and SME Board indices are higher than their historical averages;</p><p>Indices with both PE and PB valuations at historical highs: the SSE 50 index has a valuation level higher than its historical average;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c307f1db2feea63e70afad6a756a4d\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Intensifying geopolitical unrest, an unexpected outbreak of the Omicron epidemic in China, an unexpected tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic monetary policy liquidity, and the publicly available information used in the research report may be outdated or untimely.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where will the market go amid geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere will the market go amid geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-13 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Investment Points</p><p><b>This week's topic: Where will the market go amid geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic?</b></p><p>1) Geopolitical factors will continue to support high-level fluctuations in commodity prices in the short term, and the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the sustainability of the rise in commodity prices. The Russia-Ukraine crisis is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Geopolitical risks will continue to impact market sentiment, strengthening expectations of tightening supply and keeping related commodity prices high. Even if some countries choose to put pressure on commodity price increases by increasing production or finding alternative energy sources in the future, the unlikely change in the supply and demand pattern in the short term will limit the decline in commodity prices. Overall, given the prolonged geopolitical turmoil, commodity prices are likely to remain at high levels.</p><p>2) The Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish stance may put pressure on overvalued sectors. Against the backdrop of high inflation in the United States coupled with geopolitical conflicts exacerbating the inflationary dilemma, a policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve is likely a foregone conclusion. However, the recent continued escalation of geopolitical risks may affect the future prospects of US economic growth, which will lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious and flexible in its monetary policy decisions. Before a sharp decline in US stocks, the US economy, and inflation occurs, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance will continue to exceed expectations. Even if the pace of rate hike slows down in the short term, the overall tightening is likely to exceed expectations. Judging from recent signals released by the Federal Reserve, March may favor rate hike by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points, but the timing of the shrinking balance sheet is likely to be earlier, and the possibility of a \"shrinking balance sheet\" beginning in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.</p><p>3) The disruption caused by the domestic epidemic has strengthened the \"offensive and defensive\" allocation logic. Recently, with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the high incidence of COVID-19 outbreaks overseas, and the large proportion of Omeprone infections in neighboring countries and regions, the pressure on domestic prevention and control is expected to further increase. With the recurring pandemic, the recovery in consumption has weakened. Assuming stronger epidemic prevention and control measures are taken in the future, the role of exports in driving the economy may weaken this year. Weak consumption and exports may put more severe downward pressure on the economy in the short term, but in the medium term, it will most likely guide policies to increase support for stabilizing growth. Market recovery will take time, but the end of the correction may be drawing near.</p><p>4) Which industry segments are revising their earnings forecasts upwards? Upstream is strong, while midstream and downstream are under pressure. March and April are a good window of opportunity to observe high-growth industries throughout the year. The market in March has already begun to gradually reflect the performance expectations of the first quarter reports. In mid-to-late April, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of annual and first quarter reports. The market often has a seasonal characteristic of \"spring restlessness and decision-making in April\". After the annual and first quarter reports are disclosed, the market will generally adjust its profit forecasts for listed companies. There is still disagreement in the market about whether efforts to stabilize growth are effective. Therefore, we are trying to find out which companies' recovery to stabilize growth is sustainable by looking for marginal changes in profit forecasts, and what the expected changes in fundamentals are.</p><p>Investment highlights: We will continue to focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks, and recommend paying attention to domestic substitution, military industry, anti-epidemic efforts, and gold sectors. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts triggering volatility in global capital markets, a sharp rise in risk aversion, and the ongoing sporadic outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in many parts of China, investment opportunities in undervalued blue-chip stocks remain the most stable theme in the market. Although the overall valuation of growth stocks is constrained by rising inflation, the following sub-sectors are still worth paying attention to in terms of specific allocation: 1) For the demand for domestic substitution in the West as a whole: This crisis has made the relationship between the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK and the US closer. From the perspective of supply chain security, except for the US, the domestic substitution of key components from the entire Western alliance may accelerate in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to: upstream semiconductor materials, Huawei's chip-related software ecosystem, etc. 2) With the emergence of modern Western equipment during the war, the increasing nuclear deterrence between the two sides, the military industry, especially OEMs that have benefited from the final year of the three-year pilot program for state-owned enterprise reform this year, deserve close attention. 3) In the pharmaceutical sector, considering the transmissibility of new viruses, in addition to nucleic acid testing and ventilators, focus should be placed on new vaccines such as mRNA. 4) Risk aversion is affecting the market. With high overseas inflation, geopolitical conflicts coupled with the global economic downturn, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of the gold sector.</p><p>Risk warning: Intensifying geopolitical unrest, an unexpected outbreak of the Omicron epidemic in China, an unexpected tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic monetary policy liquidity, and the publicly available information used in the research report may be outdated or untimely.</p><p>text</p><p><b>This week's topic: Where will the market go amid geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic?</b></p><p><b>1.1 Geopolitical factors will continue to support commodity prices in the short term.</b></p><p>Recently, geopolitical risks have continued to stir up the market. Due to the unique characteristics of Russia and Ukraine in the pricing of certain resources globally, the dispute between the two countries may lead to an increase in commodity prices. Apart from crude oil, whose prices are already at historical highs, the prices of agrochemical products and non-ferrous metals have generally risen. The spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also affected the international logistics market, causing shipping prices to rise. The reasons for this include not only geopolitical conflicts further exacerbating the already tight energy, crop, and metal supply situation, but also transportation disruptions and market panic caused by Western sanctions against Russia.</p><p>The geopolitical conflict is not over yet, and market expectations mainly follow the changes and fluctuations in the situation between Russia and Ukraine and quickly reflect the trend of commodity prices. On March 9, initial signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine had already had a significant impact on the capital market, with oil and non-ferrous metal prices plummeting that day. However, this collective decline in commodity prices actually reflects more changes in sentiment than improvements in fundamentals, so it is too early to say at this time that the \"price increase wave\" is coming to an end. Recently, although the VIX index has fallen somewhat, it remains at a high level, indicating that market risk aversion has not yet completely subsided.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the sustainability of rising commodity prices. The current outlook for the Russia-Ukraine conflict is also unclear. Judging from the multiple rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent disclosures by both sides, the two sides have taken a hardline stance and have not yet reached an agreement on a ceasefire agreement. Moreover, the frequent supply of weapons and equipment by NATO countries to Ukraine has also hindered the easing of the conflict. The Russia-Ukraine crisis is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Geopolitical risks will continue to impact market sentiment, with increased expectations of tightening supply pushing up related commodity prices. Even if some countries choose to put pressure on commodity price increases in the future by increasing production (such as some OPEC members' statements to increase crude oil production) or finding alternative energy sources (the EU proposes to accelerate the promotion of renewable energy), the unlikely change in the supply and demand pattern in the short term will limit the decline in commodity prices. Overall, given the prolonged geopolitical turmoil, commodity prices are likely to remain at high levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cdd2ef4d240452ced73725f02ac3e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff090db7fa96fcbb78bd9fdbdf8219b\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"780\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.2 The Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish stance may put pressure on overvalued sectors.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of high inflation in the United States coupled with geopolitical conflicts exacerbating the inflationary dilemma, a policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve may be a foregone conclusion. On March 10, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI rose 7.9% year-on-year in February, the highest increase in 40 years, and the core CPI rose to 6.4% year-on-year. Given that commodity prices may remain high due to geopolitical conflicts, there is a possibility that high inflation in the US economy will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. The severe inflation situation has reinforced the necessity for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, and the better-than-expected recovery in employment in March has also provided greater room for maneuver for the Federal Reserve to shift its monetary policy. Overall, the Fed's policy adjustment may be a foregone conclusion.</p><p>Since December of last year, the Federal Reserve has frequently released rate hike signals, mainly based on the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and the most urgent pressure on inflation. However, the recent escalation of geopolitical risks may affect the future prospects for US economic growth, leading the Federal Reserve to be more cautious and flexible in its monetary policy decisions.</p><p>Before a sharp decline in US stocks, the US economy, and inflation occurs, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is likely to continue to exceed expectations. Although geopolitical conflicts may inhibit future U.S. economic growth to some extent, the fundamental principles of economic normalization have not changed, and with inflation currently high, the Federal Reserve's immediate priority remains to strengthen the guidance of inflation expectations by maintaining a hawkish policy stance. Even if the pace of rate hike slows down in the short term, the overall tightening is likely to exceed expectations. Powell had previously signaled a clearer pace and intensity of tightening during his testimony before Congress regarding the semi-annual monetary policy report. In terms of rate hike, the Federal Reserve may prefer March rate hike of 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points, but the timing of the shrinking balance sheet is likely to be earlier, and the possibility of starting a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b7eacdc1fe87b4aa08a15685d974a3\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.3 Domestic epidemic disruptions strengthen the \"offensive and defensive\" allocation logic</b></p><p>Recently, sporadic outbreaks of the epidemic have occurred in multiple locations across The number of COVID-19 cases reported nationwide remains high, the number of provinces affected by the epidemic continues to increase, and the infected strains are mainly the Omicron variant. As of March 9, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps had reported 402 new locally transmitted confirmed cases and 435 asymptomatic locally transmitted infections. A new feature of this round of the epidemic is that since the 6th, the number of new locally transmitted asymptomatic infections has been higher than the number of new locally transmitted cases for four consecutive days.</p><p>The Omeprone variant spreads faster and has milder infection symptoms than other variants, making punctate sporadic or even local outbreaks more likely to occur. The high outbreak of COVID-19 overseas, coupled with a large proportion of Omeprone infections in neighboring countries and regions, is expected to further increase the pressure on domestic prevention and control. Under the direction of epidemic recovery, the demand for products related to epidemic prevention and control will remain high, and funds will mostly flow to ventilators, effective vaccines, and effective drugs.</p><p>With the recurring pandemic, the recovery in consumption has weakened. In addition to the lack of scenarios caused by epidemic prevention and control restrictions dragging down consumption, the pandemic also suppressed residents' consumption capacity and willingness, which is reflected in the fact that before the pandemic, the growth rate of residents' income and expenditure was similar, but the gap widened significantly after the pandemic. Currently, consumption recovery is an inevitable trend driven by policies to stabilize growth, but with the pandemic not yet fully under control, the consumption recovery is weakening.</p><p>Assuming stronger epidemic prevention and control measures are taken in the future, the role of exports in driving the economy may weaken this year. Over the past two years, strong export growth has been one of the most important driving forces supporting the resilience of my country's economy. However, as economies around the world gradually adapt to the \"normalization of the pandemic,\" after June 2021, my country's share of global exports has returned to 14%, the level before the pandemic. As overseas supply chains may begin to recover, coupled with rising labor costs in my country, export growth may be sluggish and under increasing pressure.</p><p>Weak consumption and exports will put more severe downward pressure on the economy in the short term, but in the medium term, it may guide policies to increase support for stabilizing growth. Market recovery will take time, but the end of the correction may be drawing near.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59f2a3c0a40eadb62b670af68dcdbb2\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528312a622c08c7c81d9aaf8023457a9\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.4 Which industry segments are revising their earnings forecasts upwards? Upstream is strong, while downstream is under pressure.</b></p><p>March and April are a good window of opportunity to observe high-growth industries throughout the year. The market in March has already begun to gradually reflect the performance expectations of the first quarter reports. In mid-to-late April, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of annual and first quarter reports. The market often has a seasonal characteristic of \"spring restlessness and decision-making in April\". After the annual and first quarter reports are disclosed, the market will generally adjust its profit forecasts for listed companies. There is still disagreement in the market about whether efforts to stabilize growth are effective. Therefore, we are trying to find out which companies' recovery to stabilize growth is sustainable by looking for marginal changes in profit forecasts, and what the expected changes in fundamentals are.</p><p>Overall, the upstream market is strong, while the midstream and downstream market are under pressure. The industries whose 2022 profit forecasts have been revised upwards are mainly in the infrastructure industry chain, the new energy vehicle industry chain, and the pharmaceutical sector. The primary sectors that have risen in the past two months include: non-ferrous metals (2.87%), basic chemicals (1.04%), power and utilities (0.84%), and steel (0.71%).</p><p>Upstream: The upward revision of raw material profits in the upstream sector focuses on infrastructure-related industries, among which rare metals, environmental protection and public utilities, and chemical raw materials have seen price increases. On the other hand, domestic economic and financial data for January and February will also be released, which will become an important basis for the market to judge the effect of the previous \"stabilizing growth\" policy and to predict the pace and intensity of subsequent policies. With the main theme of stabilizing growth being emphasized again, the layout of \"stabilizing growth\" in the short term and high-quality development in the long term is expected to continue, and the prosperity related to infrastructure is expected to continue.</p><p>In the midstream industry, the upward revision of profit forecasts is concentrated in sub-sectors with high demand, such as new energy batteries, automotive electronics, and lithium battery/photovoltaic/semiconductor equipment, whose prosperity remains high. Earnings forecasts for semiconductors, electronic components, and computer equipment in the TMT sector have been raised. Meanwhile, profit forecasts for the specialized machinery sector within the machinery and equipment industry have also continued to be raised. In mid-to-late March, on the one hand, indicators of the prosperity of popular sectors, such as new energy vehicle sales, were released one after another. Currently, there are significant differences in expectations for the prosperity of popular sectors in the market, and relevant data will become an important signal for confirming the prosperity. On the other hand, the prosperity of conceptual sectors such as semiconductor equipment, cloud computing, and optical communication may be showing a reversal trend.</p><p>In downstream consumption, profit forecasts for the commerce, agriculture and medical services, and medical distribution sectors have been significantly revised upward. Affected by both cost pressures and the setback in demand caused by the resurgence of the pandemic, the growth rate of the food and beverage industry has slowed down, and the performance of the consumer sector has also shown significant divergence. The retail sector has seen a significant reversal in expectations compared to the decline in profits in 2021, with the 2022 profit forecast raised by about 20%. Essential Consumer's performance has not yet seen a significant upward revision, and in the overall consumer sector, Essential Consumer's earnings expectations are still better than Essential Consumer's. However, in the short term, some grain commodities, including agrochemicals, are expected to rise in price due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Affected by this geopolitical conflict, global related prices...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>High prices may boost the prosperity of agricultural products and affect expectations for live pig prices. This aspect deserves continued observation.</p><p><b>1.5 Investment Highlights: We will continue to focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks; we recommend paying attention to domestic substitution, military industry, pandemic relief, and gold sectors.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts triggering volatility in global capital markets, a sharp rise in risk aversion, and the ongoing sporadic outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in many parts of China, investment opportunities in undervalued blue-chip stocks remain the most stable theme in the market. Although the overall valuation of growth stocks is constrained by rising inflation, the following sub-sectors are still worth paying attention to in terms of specific allocation:</p><p>1) Domestic substitution demand for the entire West: This crisis has caused the EU, Japan and South Korea to completely align themselves with the UK and the US. From the perspective of supply chain security, except for the US, the domestic substitution of key components from the entire Western alliance may accelerate in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to: semiconductor upstream materials, Huawei's chip-related software ecosystem, etc.</p><p>2) With the emergence of modern Western equipment during the war and the increasing nuclear deterrence between the two sides, the military industry, especially OEMs, which benefited from the final year of the three-year pilot program for state-owned enterprise reform this year, deserve close attention.</p><p>3) In medicine, epidemic prevention items, considering the transmission ability of the virus, in addition to nucleic acid testing, ventilators, etc., focus on new vaccines such as mRNA.</p><p>4) Risk aversion is affecting the market, overseas inflation remains high, geopolitical conflicts coupled with a global economic downturn, and it is recommended to pay attention to the investment value of the gold sector.</p><p><b>Market Review and Outlook</b></p><p>Style Index: The market generally fell this week. The CSI 500 and SME Composite Index led the decline. In terms of activity, turnover rates across all industries generally rebounded, with the turnover rate of the Shenzhen Component Index rising significantly.</p><p>Major industry categories: Healthcare and daily consumption performed relatively well this week, while discretionary consumption and real estate performed relatively poorly. In terms of activity, the energy turnover rate has declined significantly, while the healthcare turnover rate has rebounded significantly.</p><p>Primary industries: Primary industries generally declined this week, with home appliances and non-ferrous metals leading the decline. In terms of activity, the turnover rate in the pharmaceutical and media sectors rebounded relatively significantly, while the turnover rate in the defense and military industry declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b77bbe4f011209d0f61398519d4b870\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d58f4dc49d2ba695c284f3f2b140070\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>III. Emotional Indicator Tracking</b></p><p>Overall market activity: Since 2010, the average daily turnover rate across the A-share market has been roughly 0.4%-1.4%. After smoothing out on the 20th, the turnover rate of all A-shares declined slightly this week. As of March 11, the daily turnover rate reached 1.36%, which is at the historical 82.43rd percentile. The turnover rate of the ChiNext Index is roughly 2%-8%. After smoothing out on the 20th, the turnover rate of the ChiNext Index fluctuated upwards. As of March 11, 2022, the daily turnover rate of the ChiNext index was 13.50%, which is at the 90.6th percentile historically.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91bd77cd124660b4b931da83a84f0e2\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On-exchange margin trading: The margin trading balance rebounded slightly this week. As of March 10, the margin trading balance was 1.6194 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.63 billion yuan from last week. After smoothing out on the 5th, the proportion of margin buying in the total market turnover decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous week.</p><p>Newly listed stock indicators: After smoothing out on the 5th, the turnover rate of newly listed stocks rebounded slightly compared to last week. As of March 11, the average turnover rate of newly listed stocks on the 5th reached 9.12%, which is in the historical 87.14% percentile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b3f83e23e7b8c86169632226e8093d\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>IV. Valuation Indicator Tracking</b></p><p>Major industry valuations: Among the price-to-book (PB) valuations, the basic non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, defense and military, automotive, consumer services, food and beverage, and electronics industries have valuations higher than their historical averages;</p><p>Major industry valuations: Among PE valuations, the valuation levels of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, utilities, leisure services, electrical equipment, automobiles and comprehensive industries are higher than the historical average;</p><p>Industries with both PE and PB valuations at historically high levels: the food and beverage and automotive industries have valuations higher than their historical averages;</p><p>Major indices: Price-to-book (PB) valuations of the SSE 50 and ChiNext indices are higher than their historical averages;</p><p>Major indices: PE valuations of the SSE 50 and SME Board indices are higher than their historical averages;</p><p>Indices with both PE and PB valuations at historical highs: the SSE 50 index has a valuation level higher than its historical average;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c307f1db2feea63e70afad6a756a4d\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Intensifying geopolitical unrest, an unexpected outbreak of the Omicron epidemic in China, an unexpected tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic monetary policy liquidity, and the publicly available information used in the research report may be outdated or untimely.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/676392.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","399001":"深证成指","510030":"价值ETF华宝","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","FXP":"二倍做空富时中国50ETF-ProShares","000300.SH":"沪深300","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","XPP":"二倍做多富时中国50ETF(ProShares)",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","09939":"开拓药业-B","BK1574":"生物医药B类股","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","YXI":"ProShares做空FTSE中国50ETF","000016.SH":"上证50","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/676392.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2219424094","content_text":"投资要点本周话题：地缘动荡与疫情下，市场将何去何从?1)  地缘因素短期内仍将支撑大宗商品价格高位震荡，俄乌冲突的演进态势将决定大宗商品价格上涨的可持续性。短期内，俄乌危机大概率难以解决。地缘政治风险将持续影响市场情绪，供给收紧预期增强，相关大宗商品价格持续高位。即使部分国家在未来选择以增产或者寻找替代能源的方式对大宗商品涨势施压，但短期内供需格局难变限制了大宗商品价格回落幅度。综合来看，在地缘动荡长期化的前提下，大宗商品价格大概率维持在高位运行。2)  美联储超预期鹰派或使高估值板块承压。在美国通胀高企叠加地缘冲突加剧通胀困境的背景下，美联储政策调整大概率已成定局，但近期地缘政治风险持续发酵或影响未来美国经济增长前景也将导致美联储在货币政策决策上更加谨慎和灵活。在美股、美国经济、通胀出现大幅下滑前，美联储鹰派表述将持续超预期。即便短期内加息节奏放缓，但整体收紧力度大概率超预期。就近期美联储释放的信号来看，3月或倾向于加息25bp而非50bp，但缩表时间大概率会提前，不排除在二季度开启“缩表”的可能性。3)  国内疫情扰动强化“攻守兼备”配置逻辑。近日，国内疫情蔓延，境外新冠肺炎疫情高发，伴随周边国家地区大比例的奥密克戎感染，国内防控压力预计会进一步增加。疫情反复下，消费复苏趋弱。假设未来采取更强的疫情防控措施，今年出口对经济拉动作用也或弱化。消费及出口的疲软短期或对经济下行构成更加严重压力，但是从中期来看，大概率将引导政策面加大稳增长支持力度。市场修复仍待时日，但调整尾声或已渐行渐近。4)  哪些行业细分正在向上修正盈利预测?：上游强劲，中下游承压。3-4月是很好的观察全年高景气行业的时间窗口。当前3月的市场已经开始逐步反应一季报的业绩预期，4  月中下旬市场将进入年报及一季报业绩的密集披露期，市场往往有“春季躁动，四月决断”的季节性特征，在年报及一季报业绩披露后，市场会普遍调整对上市公司的盈利预测。而市场目前对“稳增长发力是否有效”的分歧一直存在，所以我们通过寻找盈利预测边际变化，试图寻找哪些公司的稳增长复苏具备持续性，以及基本面的预期变化情况如何。投资要点：仍以低估值蓝筹为主线，建议关注国产替代、军工、抗疫、黄金板块。地缘冲突引发全球资本市场震荡，市场避险情绪急剧升温以及国内疫情多地散发势头尚未遏制住的背景下，低估值蓝筹的投资机会仍为市场最稳健的主线。成长股方面虽然整体估值受制于通胀上升，就具体配置而言，如下细分仍值得关注：1)  对于整个西方的国产替代需求：本次危机，使得欧盟、日韩与英美关系更加密切，就供应链安全角度而言，除美国外，其余来自于整个西方大联盟的关键零部件的国产替代或将在未来加速，建议关注：半导体上游材料，华为芯片相关的软件生态等，2)伴随战争过程中西方现代化装备的展现，不断增加的双方核威慑，军工，特别是今年受益于国企改革三年试点收官年的主机厂值得重点关注。3)医药当中防疫物品，考虑到新病毒的传播能力，除核酸检测、呼吸机等外，重点关注mRNA等新疫苗，4)避险情绪影响市场，海外通胀居高不下，地缘冲突叠加全球经济下行，建议关注黄金板块的配置价值。风险提示：地缘动荡事件加剧，国内Omicron疫情超预期爆发，美联储货币政策及国内货币政策流动性超预期收紧，研究报告使用的公开资料可能存在信息滞后或更新不及时的情况。正文一 本周话题：地缘动荡与疫情下，市场将何去何从?1.1 地缘因素短期内仍将支撑大宗商品价格近期，地缘政治风险持续搅动市场。由于俄乌在全球部分资源品定价中的特殊性，两国纷争或将引导大宗商品价格上行。除价格已经处于历史高位的原油外，农化产品、有色金属价格普涨。俄乌冲突带来的外溢效应也波及到了国际物流市场，航运价格攀升。究其原因，除了地缘冲突进一步加剧了原本紧张的能源、农作物及金属供应形势以外，还包括西方国家对俄制裁限制带来的运输受阻及市场预期恐慌。现下地缘冲突仍未结束，市场预期主要跟随俄乌局势变化波动并快速反映大宗商品价格走势上。3月9日，俄乌局势初现缓和迹象已经对资本市场产生明显影响，该日油价、有色金属价格大幅重挫。但此次大宗商品价格集体回落实际上更多的是反映了情绪面的变化而非基本面的改善，因此此时断言“涨价潮”趋于结束还为时尚早。近日，VIX指数虽有所下跌但仍处高位水平，我们可以看出，市场避险情绪尚未完全缓和。如前所述，俄乌冲突的演进态势将决定大宗商品价格上涨的可持续性。当前俄乌冲突前景亦未明朗，从俄乌多轮谈判以及此后双方所披露的情况看，俄乌双方立场强硬，目前仍未就停火协议达成一致意见，且北约国家频频输送武器装备至乌克兰，也为冲突缓和造成阻碍。短期内，俄乌危机大概率难以解决。地缘政治风险将持续影响市场情绪，  供给收紧预期增强推高相关大宗商品价格。即使部分国家在未来选择以增产(如OPEC部分成员国表态增产原油)或者寻找替代能源(欧盟提议加速推广可再生能源)的方式对大宗商品涨势施压，但短期内供需格局难变限制了大宗商品价格回落幅度。综合来看，在地缘动荡长期化的前提下，大宗商品价格大概率维持在高位运行。1.2 美联储超预期鹰派或致高估值板块承压在美国通胀高企叠加地缘冲突加剧通胀困境的背景下，美联储政策调整或已成定局。3月10日，美国劳工部发布的数据显示,美国2月CPI同比上涨7.9%,涨幅创40年来新高，核心CPI同比增速升至6.4%。考虑到地缘冲突扰动下大宗商品价格或维持高位，短期内美国经济存在高通胀难以缓解的可能性。通胀形势严峻强化了美联储收紧货币政策的必要性，3月就业超预期复苏也为美联储货币政策转向提供更大的操作空间，综合来看，美联储政策调整或已成定局。自去年12月开始，美联储频频释放加息信号，主要是基于美国经济持续修复以及通胀面临的压力最为紧迫。但近期地缘政治风险持续发酵或影响未来美国经济增长前景也将导致美联储在货币政策决策上更加谨慎和灵活。在美股、美国经济、通胀出现大幅下滑前，美联储鹰派表述大概率将持续超预期。尽管地缘冲突可能会在一定程度上抑制美国未来经济增长，但经济正常化的基本原理尚未改变，且目前通胀居高难下，美联储的当务之急仍是通过维持鹰派政策立场强化对通胀预期的引导。即便短期内加息节奏放缓，但整体收紧力度大概率超预期。此前鲍威尔在国会听证会就半年度货币政策报告作证词中释放了关于紧缩节奏与力度更清晰的信号。从加息幅度上来说，美联储或倾向于3月加息25bp而非50bp，但缩表时间大概率会提前，不排除在二季度开启“缩表”的可能性。1.3 国内疫情扰动强化“攻守兼备”配置逻辑近日，国内疫情多点散发。全国报告新冠感染者继续维持高位，疫情涉及省份持续增多，感染毒株以Omicron变异株为主。截至3月9日，31个省(自治区、直辖市)和新疆生产建设兵团报告新增本土确诊病例402例，本土无症状感染者435例。此轮疫情中有一个新特点，即从6日以来，连续四天本土无症状感染者单日新增数都高于新增本土病例数。奥密克戎变异株传播速度更快且感染症状较其他变异株更轻微，因此点状散发甚至局部爆发更容易出现。境外新冠肺炎疫情高发，伴随周边国家地区大比例的奥密克戎感染，国内防控压力预计会进一步增加。疫情修复方向下，防疫、治疫等相关产品需求将维持高位，资金多流向呼吸机、特效疫苗、特效药等赛道。疫情反复下，消费复苏趋弱。除了防控限制引发的场景缺失拖累消费外，疫情同样对居民的消费能力和意愿产生抑制，体现为疫情前居民收入和支出增速相当、疫后差距明显拉大。目前，消费修复是稳增长政策发力下的大势所趋，但在疫情尚未完全控制住的情况下，消费复苏趋弱。假设未来采取更强的疫情防控措施，今年出口对经济拉动作用也或弱化。过去两年，出口高景气是支撑我国经济韧性最重要的动能之一，但在全球各经济体逐渐适应“疫情常态化”的背景下，2021年6月后，我国出口占全球份额已回到14%，这一疫情之前的水平。随着海外供应链或进入趋势性恢复，叠加我国人力成本的走高，出口增长或乏力且承压渐增。消费及出口的疲软短期内会对经济下行构成更加严重压力，但是从中期来看，或将引导政策面加大稳增长支持力度。市场修复仍待时日，但调整尾声或已渐行渐近。1.4 哪些行业细分正在向上修正盈利预测?：上游强劲，中下游承压3-4月是很好的观察全年高景气行业的时间窗口。当前3月的市场已经开始逐步反应一季报的业绩预期，4  月中下旬市场将进入年报及一季报业绩的密集披露期，市场往往有“春季躁动，四月决断”的季节性特征，在年报及一季报业绩披露后，市场会普遍调整对上市公司的盈利预测。而市场目前对“稳增长发力是否有效”的分歧一直存在，所以我们通过寻找盈利预测边际变化，试图寻找哪些公司的稳增长复苏具备持续性，以及基本面的预期变化情况如何。整体来看，上游强劲，中下游承压。22年盈利预测上调的行业主要在基建产业链、新能源车产业链及医药板块。近2个月调涨的一级行业：有色金属(2.87%)，基础化工(1.04%)，电力及公用(0.84%)，钢铁(0.71%)等。上游：上游领域的原材料盈利上调的领域聚焦在基建相关产业，其中，稀有金属、环保公用、化学原料调涨。另一方面，国内1-2  月经济、金融数据也将公布，并成为市场判断前期“稳增长”效果以及预判后续政策节奏和力度的重要依据，稳增长主线再次强调下，短期“稳增长”及长期高质量发展的布局，基建相关景气度有望延续。中游行业中，盈利预测上修集中在需求高景气的细分赛道，如新能源电池、汽车电子、锂电/光伏/半导体设备，景气度持续维持高位。TMT板块中半导体、电子零组件、计算机设备的盈利预测调涨。同时，机械设备中专用机械领域盈利预期也持续上调。3  月中下旬，一方面，热门赛道景气度指标，如新能源车销量陆续发布，当前市场的热门赛道景气度预期分歧较大，相关数据将成为景气确认的重要信号。另一方面，半导体设备、云计算、光通信这些细分领域的概念领域景气度或有反转的趋势。下游消费中，商贸、农业及医疗服务、医疗流通板块的盈利预测明显上调。受成本压力及疫情复发导致需求端受挫的双重影响，食品饮料行业增速放缓，消费板块内部业绩表现也出现明显的分化。商贸零售相对于21年的盈利下调出现明显的预期反转，22年盈利预测上调20%左右。必选消费业绩仍没有看到明显的上修，整体消费中，可选的盈利预期仍好于必选。但是  短期，粮食部分品种、包括农用化工受俄乌战火的影响，涨价预期比较强烈，受这种地缘冲突的影响，全球相关农产品价格在高位，这可能对农产品景气度有所助推，同时影响生猪价格的预期，这方面值得持续的观察。1.5 投资要点：仍以低估值蓝筹为主线，建议关注国产替代、军工、抗疫、黄金板块地缘冲突引发全球资本市场震荡，市场避险情绪急剧升温以及国内疫情多地散发势头尚未遏制住的背景下，低估值蓝筹的投资机会仍为市场最稳健的主线。成长股方面虽然整体估值受制于通胀上升，就具体配置而言，但如下细分仍值得关注：1)  对于整个西方的国产替代需求：本次危机，使得欧盟、日韩彻底倒向并绑定英美，就供应链安全角度而言，除美国外，其余来自于整个西方大联盟的关键零部件的国产替代或将在未来加速，建议关注：半导体上游材料，华为芯片相关的软件生态等。2) 伴随战争过程中西方现代化装备的展现，不断增加的双方核威慑，军工，特别是今年受益于国企改革三年试点收官年的主机厂值得重点关注。3)医药当中防疫物品，考虑到病毒的传播能力，除核酸检测、呼吸机等外，重点关注mRNA等新疫苗。4)避险情绪影响市场，海外通胀居高不下，地缘冲突叠加全球经济下行，建议关注黄金板块的配置价值。二 市场回顾及展望风格指数：本周市场行情普跌。中证500、中小板指领跌。活跃度方面，各行业换手率普遍回升，深证成指换手率上升明显。大类行业：本周医疗保健、日常消费相对表现亮眼，可选消费、房地产相对表现低迷。活跃度方面，能源换手率明显回落，医疗保健换手率明显回升。一级行业：本周一级行业普跌，家电、有色金属领跌。活跃度方面，医药、传媒换手率回升相对明显，国防军工换手率有所下滑。三 情绪指标跟踪全市场活跃度：2010年以来，全A日均换手率区间大致为0.4%-1.4%。20日平滑后本周全A换手率小幅下降。截止3月11日，单日换手率达到1.36%，处于历史分位的82.43%。创业板指换手率区间大致为2%-8%，20日平滑后创业板指换手率震荡上升。截止2022年3月11日，创业板单日换手率为13.50%，处于历史分位的90.6%。场内融资：本周融资余额小幅回升，截止3月10日，融资余额为16194亿元，较上周减少86.30亿。5日平滑后融资买入额占全市场成交额的比重较上周下降-0.2%。次新股指标：5日平滑后次新股换手率较上周小幅回升，截止3月11日，5日次新股换手率均值达到9.12%，处于历史分位87.14%。四 估值指标跟踪主要行业估值： PB估值中基有色金属、基础化工、电力设备及新能源、国防军工、汽车、消费者服务、食品饮料和电子行业估值水平高于历史均值;主要行业估值：PE估值中农林牧渔、食品饮料、公用事业、休闲服务、电器设备、汽车和综合行业估值水平高于历史均值;PE估值、PB估值均处在历史高位的行业：食品饮料、汽车行业估值水平高于历史均值;主要指数：PB估值上证50、创业板指估值水平高于历史均值;主要指数：PE估值上证50、中小板指估值水平高于历史均值;PE估值、PB估值均处在历史高位的指数：上证50估值水平高于历史均值;风险提示：地缘动荡事件加剧，国内Omicron疫情超预期爆发，美联储货币政策及国内货币政策流动性超预期收紧，研究报告使用的公开资料可能存在信息滞后或更新不及时的情况。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"399001":0.9,"510030":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"YXI":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"000016.SH":0.6,"XPP":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"000300.SH":0.6,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"MGCmain":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"FXP":0.6,"09939":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"GCmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"CNmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033147016,"gmtCreate":1646229347299,"gmtModify":1676534106118,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033147016","repostId":"1127758030","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127758030","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646227998,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127758030?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-02 21:33","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: rate hike is expected to be appropriate in March.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127758030","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，预计3月份加息将是合适的，乌克兰战争对美国经济的影响“高度不确定”。美联储将需要灵活应对即将到来的数据和不断变化的经济前景。通胀方面，鲍威尔预计随着供应问题的缓解和需求缓和，今年通胀将下降，并表示美联储正在关注通胀预期和通胀压力上升的风险，这是由一系列因素造成的。缩表方面，鲍威尔称，在加息过程开始后，美联储将开始缩减资产负债表。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects rate hike in March to be appropriate, and the impact of the Ukrainian war on the U.S. economy is \"highly uncertain.\" The labor market is very tight, and inflation is well above target.</p><p>Powell pointed out that formulating appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires recognizing that the economy is developing in unexpected ways. The Federal Reserve will need to be flexible in responding to upcoming data and the changing economic outlook.</p><p>Regarding inflation, Powell expects inflation to decline this year as supply problems ease and demand softens, and stated that the Federal Reserve is monitoring the risks of rising inflation expectations and pressures, which are caused by a range of factors.</p><p>He stated that the slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by the Omeprone strain variant appears to be short-lived. However, the supply disruption was greater than expected and lasted longer. The labor market is very tight, and wage growth is the fastest in many years.</p><p>Regarding shrinking balance sheet, Powell stated that<b>After the rate hike process begins, the Federal Reserve will begin to shrink its balance sheet.</b>。 The balance sheet reduction will take place in a predictable manner, primarily through adjustments and reinvestments.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: rate hike is expected to be appropriate in March.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: rate hike is expected to be appropriate in March.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-02 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects rate hike in March to be appropriate, and the impact of the Ukrainian war on the U.S. economy is \"highly uncertain.\" The labor market is very tight, and inflation is well above target.</p><p>Powell pointed out that formulating appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires recognizing that the economy is developing in unexpected ways. The Federal Reserve will need to be flexible in responding to upcoming data and the changing economic outlook.</p><p>Regarding inflation, Powell expects inflation to decline this year as supply problems ease and demand softens, and stated that the Federal Reserve is monitoring the risks of rising inflation expectations and pressures, which are caused by a range of factors.</p><p>He stated that the slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by the Omeprone strain variant appears to be short-lived. However, the supply disruption was greater than expected and lasted longer. The labor market is very tight, and wage growth is the fastest in many years.</p><p>Regarding shrinking balance sheet, Powell stated that<b>After the rate hike process begins, the Federal Reserve will begin to shrink its balance sheet.</b>。 The balance sheet reduction will take place in a predictable manner, primarily through adjustments and reinvestments.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127758030","content_text":"3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，预计3月份加息将是合适的，乌克兰战争对美国经济的影响“高度不确定”。劳动力市场非常紧张，通胀远高于目标。鲍威尔指出，在这种环境下制定适当的货币政策，必须认识到经济以意想不到的方式发展。美联储将需要灵活应对即将到来的数据和不断变化的经济前景。通胀方面，鲍威尔预计随着供应问题的缓解和需求缓和，今年通胀将下降，并表示美联储正在关注通胀预期和通胀压力上升的风险，这是由一系列因素造成的。他表示，奥密克戎毒株变体导致的美国经济放缓似乎是短暂的。但供应中断比预期的更大、持续时间更长。劳动力市场非常紧张，工资增长速度是多年来最快的。缩表方面，鲍威尔称，在加息过程开始后，美联储将开始缩减资产负债表。缩减资产负债表将以可预测的方式进行，主要是通过调整再投资。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095146554,"gmtCreate":1644861401714,"gmtModify":1676533969048,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095146554","repostId":"1147500928","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147500928","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644850519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147500928?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-14 22:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rivian surged 10%, with Soros buying in Q4, bringing his holdings worth over $2 billion.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147500928","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"值得注意的是，Rivian是索罗斯四季度新建仓的个股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, an electric van startup<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>The stock surged 10% in early trading after reports that George Soros bought Rivian in Q4, bringing his holdings to $2.057 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea716916dc9799f78b01f4147ade97dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Soros Fund Management, a Fund owned by financial tycoon George Soros, submitted its fourth-quarter holdings report (13F) ending December 31, 2021. According to statistics, the fund's total market value of holdings was $7.308 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $5.417 billion in the previous quarter, representing a 34.9% increase quarter-on-quarter.</p><p>The fund's portfolio in the fourth quarter<b>94 new stocks were added</b>，<b>Increased holdings in 29 stocks</b>。 In addition, the fund also<b>Holdings were reduced by 36 stocks.</b>And<b>I liquidated 65 stocks.</b>。 The top ten holdings accounted for 61.69% of the total market capitalization.</p><p>Among the top five holdings,<b>Rivian ranked first</b>The company holds approximately 19.8357 million shares, with a market value of approximately US$2.057 billion, accounting for 28.14% of its portfolio. It is worth noting that,<b>Rivian is a stock that George Soros newly established a position in in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian surged 10%, with Soros buying in Q4, bringing his holdings worth over $2 billion.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian surged 10%, with Soros buying in Q4, bringing his holdings worth over $2 billion.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-14 22:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, an electric van startup<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>The stock surged 10% in early trading after reports that George Soros bought Rivian in Q4, bringing his holdings to $2.057 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea716916dc9799f78b01f4147ade97dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Soros Fund Management, a Fund owned by financial tycoon George Soros, submitted its fourth-quarter holdings report (13F) ending December 31, 2021. According to statistics, the fund's total market value of holdings was $7.308 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $5.417 billion in the previous quarter, representing a 34.9% increase quarter-on-quarter.</p><p>The fund's portfolio in the fourth quarter<b>94 new stocks were added</b>，<b>Increased holdings in 29 stocks</b>。 In addition, the fund also<b>Holdings were reduced by 36 stocks.</b>And<b>I liquidated 65 stocks.</b>。 The top ten holdings accounted for 61.69% of the total market capitalization.</p><p>Among the top five holdings,<b>Rivian ranked first</b>The company holds approximately 19.8357 million shares, with a market value of approximately US$2.057 billion, accounting for 28.14% of its portfolio. It is worth noting that,<b>Rivian is a stock that George Soros newly established a position in in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/246cd8c44f8d5b3ccb3590c3a62a3f19","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147500928","content_text":"周一，电动货车初创公司Rivian盘初大涨10%，消息称索罗斯Q4买入Rivian，持仓市值达到20.57亿美元。根据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）披露，金融大鳄索罗斯旗下基金Soros Fund Management递交了截至2021年12月31日的四季度持仓报告（13F）。据统计，该基金四季度持仓总市值为73.08亿美元，上一季度总市值为54.17亿美元，环比增长34.9%。该基金在四季度的持仓组合中新增了94只个股，增持了29只个股。同时，该基金还减持了36只个股并清仓了65只个股。其中前十大持仓标的占总市值的61.69%。在前五大重仓股中，Rivian位列第一，持仓约1983.57万股，持仓市值约20.57亿美元，占投资组合比例为28.14%。值得注意的是，Rivian是索罗斯四季度新建仓的个股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092887845,"gmtCreate":1644586158067,"gmtModify":1676533943718,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092887845","repostId":"1130140404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130140404","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644585809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130140404?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-11 21:23","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"What impact will the suspension of thousands of mining operations have on major Southeast Asian resource-exporting countries?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130140404","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据界面新闻等报道，一份由印尼矿业部下属矿产和煤炭局发布的文件显示，由于未能提交2022年的工作计划，印尼已经暂停1000多个矿商的矿场（锡矿等）运营。在此前的1月初，印尼曾禁止煤炭出口1个月，或影响全","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports from Jiemian News and other sources, a document released by the Mines and Coal Agency under the Indonesian Ministry of Mines shows that Indonesia has suspended the operations of more than 1,000 miners' mines (tin mines, etc.) due to the failure to submit a work plan for 2022.</p><p>In early January, Indonesia had banned coal exports for a month, potentially affecting global coal prices, which was heavily covered by analysts' research reports.</p><p>What are the main mineral resources in Indonesia? What impact might this have?</p><p>Today we'll briefly review these issues.</p><p><b>Indonesia is rich in mineral resources</b></p><p>According to a research report by Guotai Junan Securities, Indonesia boasts a complete range of mineral resources, including bauxite, nickel ore, iron ore, copper, tin, gold, and silver, among which...<b>tin-nickel-aluminum</b>It has the richest reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9640a0c19f20e07f9d2da6eeaf59198a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding nickel,</b>According to a research report by Huaxin Securities, global nickel resources are mainly distributed in Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and other places. China has a shortage of nickel ore resources, with reserves accounting for only 3% of the world's total. In terms of production, the world's major nickel producing countries include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia, with Indonesia and the Philippines accounting for 44% of the total, while China's nickel ore production accounts for only 4.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce057b30be22c859fafbe25ef0eb1e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that against the backdrop of the booming development of the global new energy vehicle industry, China's nickel ore imports have been increasing year by year, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 80%. 50% of the imported nickel ore comes from Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's historical export restrictions, this may push up nickel metal prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36de095c1ed6b003ae245e8c7f2b1401\" tg-width=\"347\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding tin,</b>According to statistics, Indonesia ranks second in the world in tin reserves, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total. Meanwhile, Indonesia is also the world's second-largest tin producer, second only to my country with a production of 22%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ac1d4d3897a8c71c759548b70ad52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding bauxite,</b>China's dependence on foreign bauxite reaches about 60%, and 80% of its imported bauxite comes from Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's historical export controls, Guotai Junan Securities stated that this may lead to an increase in domestic bauxite prices, raising the production costs of simple alumina and electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, thereby pushing up electrolytic aluminum prices.</p><p><b>Indonesia's restriction of primary mineral exports is a major trend.</b></p><p>As the world's most upstream raw material supply base, Indonesia exports more than 90% of its nickel and aluminum metals in the form of primary mineral products, with very little deep processing. In order to change its large population and backward economy, the government has frequently proposed policies to restrict metal exports since 2002.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3fddc5e8231a5ee23552d48874de11\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On November 24, 2021, the Indonesian president stated that Indonesia might stop tin exports in 2024 in order to attract investment in the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance. The government may stop exporting bauxite in 2022 and copper ore in 2023.</p><p>Guotai Junan Securities believes that Indonesia's restrictions on primary mineral exports will be a major trend. Historically,<b>Strict implementation will significantly improve the supply and demand of aluminum and nickel.</b>This will support metal prices, and companies with high self-sufficiency rates are expected to benefit.</p><p><b>Third largest coal producer</b></p><p>Data shows that Indonesia is currently the world's third-largest coal producer and the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. Meanwhile, Indonesia is my country's largest importer of coal/thermal coal. In 2020, my country imported a total of 300 million tons of coal, of which 140.99 million tons were imported from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. Australia came in second, importing 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.</p><p>According to China Merchants Securities, in 2021, when Australia's coal ban was strictly implemented, Indonesian coal became the main import substitute, accounting for 60.9% in the first 11 months, with total imports reaching 178 million tons, an increase of 62 million tons, or 54%, year-on-year, which greatly alleviated the problem of tight coal supply in China.</p><p>Guosheng Securities stated that if Indonesian coal exports are banned, it will affect my country's imports by an average of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of the domestic effective supply, and it will be difficult to make up for this through other countries. If Indonesia's export ban continues for an extended period, it may cause my country's thermal coal market to return to a balance between supply and demand, or even to a slightly tight situation.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What impact will the suspension of thousands of mining operations have on major Southeast Asian resource-exporting countries?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat impact will the suspension of thousands of mining operations have on major Southeast Asian resource-exporting countries?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-11 21:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports from Jiemian News and other sources, a document released by the Mines and Coal Agency under the Indonesian Ministry of Mines shows that Indonesia has suspended the operations of more than 1,000 miners' mines (tin mines, etc.) due to the failure to submit a work plan for 2022.</p><p>In early January, Indonesia had banned coal exports for a month, potentially affecting global coal prices, which was heavily covered by analysts' research reports.</p><p>What are the main mineral resources in Indonesia? What impact might this have?</p><p>Today we'll briefly review these issues.</p><p><b>Indonesia is rich in mineral resources</b></p><p>According to a research report by Guotai Junan Securities, Indonesia boasts a complete range of mineral resources, including bauxite, nickel ore, iron ore, copper, tin, gold, and silver, among which...<b>tin-nickel-aluminum</b>It has the richest reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9640a0c19f20e07f9d2da6eeaf59198a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding nickel,</b>According to a research report by Huaxin Securities, global nickel resources are mainly distributed in Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and other places. China has a shortage of nickel ore resources, with reserves accounting for only 3% of the world's total. In terms of production, the world's major nickel producing countries include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia, with Indonesia and the Philippines accounting for 44% of the total, while China's nickel ore production accounts for only 4.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce057b30be22c859fafbe25ef0eb1e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that against the backdrop of the booming development of the global new energy vehicle industry, China's nickel ore imports have been increasing year by year, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 80%. 50% of the imported nickel ore comes from Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's historical export restrictions, this may push up nickel metal prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36de095c1ed6b003ae245e8c7f2b1401\" tg-width=\"347\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding tin,</b>According to statistics, Indonesia ranks second in the world in tin reserves, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total. Meanwhile, Indonesia is also the world's second-largest tin producer, second only to my country with a production of 22%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ac1d4d3897a8c71c759548b70ad52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding bauxite,</b>China's dependence on foreign bauxite reaches about 60%, and 80% of its imported bauxite comes from Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's historical export controls, Guotai Junan Securities stated that this may lead to an increase in domestic bauxite prices, raising the production costs of simple alumina and electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, thereby pushing up electrolytic aluminum prices.</p><p><b>Indonesia's restriction of primary mineral exports is a major trend.</b></p><p>As the world's most upstream raw material supply base, Indonesia exports more than 90% of its nickel and aluminum metals in the form of primary mineral products, with very little deep processing. In order to change its large population and backward economy, the government has frequently proposed policies to restrict metal exports since 2002.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3fddc5e8231a5ee23552d48874de11\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On November 24, 2021, the Indonesian president stated that Indonesia might stop tin exports in 2024 in order to attract investment in the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance. The government may stop exporting bauxite in 2022 and copper ore in 2023.</p><p>Guotai Junan Securities believes that Indonesia's restrictions on primary mineral exports will be a major trend. Historically,<b>Strict implementation will significantly improve the supply and demand of aluminum and nickel.</b>This will support metal prices, and companies with high self-sufficiency rates are expected to benefit.</p><p><b>Third largest coal producer</b></p><p>Data shows that Indonesia is currently the world's third-largest coal producer and the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. Meanwhile, Indonesia is my country's largest importer of coal/thermal coal. In 2020, my country imported a total of 300 million tons of coal, of which 140.99 million tons were imported from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. Australia came in second, importing 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.</p><p>According to China Merchants Securities, in 2021, when Australia's coal ban was strictly implemented, Indonesian coal became the main import substitute, accounting for 60.9% in the first 11 months, with total imports reaching 178 million tons, an increase of 62 million tons, or 54%, year-on-year, which greatly alleviated the problem of tight coal supply in China.</p><p>Guosheng Securities stated that if Indonesian coal exports are banned, it will affect my country's imports by an average of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of the domestic effective supply, and it will be difficult to make up for this through other countries. If Indonesia's export ban continues for an extended period, it may cause my country's thermal coal market to return to a balance between supply and demand, or even to a slightly tight situation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651702\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de37c6248d9a2641dda76d181c7cc1a6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651702","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130140404","content_text":"据界面新闻等报道，一份由印尼矿业部下属矿产和煤炭局发布的文件显示，由于未能提交2022年的工作计划，印尼已经暂停1000多个矿商的矿场（锡矿等）运营。在此前的1月初，印尼曾禁止煤炭出口1个月，或影响全球煤炭价格，而被分析师研报密集覆盖。印尼主要都有哪些矿产资源？这个事情又可能有哪些影响？今天我们来简单梳理一下这些问题。印尼矿产资源丰富据国泰君安研报数据显示，印尼矿产种类齐全、包括铝土矿、镍矿、铁矿沙、铜、锡、金、银等，其中尤其以锡镍铝储量最为丰富。镍方面，据华鑫证券研报数据，全球镍资源主要分布在印尼、澳大利亚、巴西等地，中国镍矿资源短缺，储量仅占全球的3%。产量上看，全球镍主要生产国有印尼、菲律宾、俄罗斯等，其中印尼和菲律宾合计占比达到44%，而中国的镍矿产量仅占4.8%。国泰君安指出，全球新能源汽车产业的发展如火如荼的背景下，中国镍矿进口量逐年增大，对外依存度达到80%以上，而进口的镍矿中50%来自印尼，结合历史上印尼限制出口情况来看的话，有可能会推升镍金属价格。锡方面，据统计数据，印尼锡储量位居世界第二，占世界总量的17%，仅次于占总量23%的中国；同时印尼的锡产量也是世界第二，以22%的产量成为仅次于我国。铝土矿方面，中国对国外铝土矿依存度达到60%左右，而进口的铝土矿中80%来自于印尼，结合历史上印尼出口控制情况来看的话，国泰君安表示，可能导致国内铝土矿价格上升，提升单纯的氧化铝、电解铝生产企业的生产成本，从而推升电解铝价格。印尼限制初级矿产品出口是大趋势作为全球最上游原料供应基地，印尼的镍及铝金属90%以上以初级矿产品形式出口，极少做深加工，为了改变自己人口众多、经济落后的现状，从2002年开始，印尼限制金属出口的政策就时常被政府提出。2021年11月24日，印尼总统就曾表示，印尼可能会在2024年停止锡出口，以吸引对资源加工业的投资并改善该国的外部平衡。政府可能会在2022年停止出口铝土矿，并在2023年停止出口铜矿石。国泰君安认为，印尼限制初级矿产品出口会是大趋势，从历史上来看的话，如果执行严格，将大幅改善铝、镍的供需面，从而对金属价格形成支撑，自给率高的企业有望受益。第三大煤炭生产国资料显示，目前印尼为全球第三大煤炭生产商，为世界上最大的动力煤出口国。同时印尼是我国煤炭/动力煤第一大进口来源国。2020年，我国累计进口煤炭3亿吨，其中自印尼进口14099万吨，占比46.4%，为第一大煤炭进口国。第二为澳洲，2020年进口7809万吨，占比25.7%。招商证券称在澳煤禁令严格实施的2021年，印尼煤炭成为主要的进口替代品，前11个月占比已跃升至60.9%，进口总量1.78亿吨，同比增加6200万吨，涨幅为54%，较大程度缓解中国煤炭供应紧张的难题。国盛证券表示，若印尼煤禁止出口，将月均影响我国进口约1600万吨，占国内有效供应的5.3%，且难以通过其他国家弥补。若印尼出口禁令长期持续或将造成我国动力煤市场重回供需平衡甚至略偏紧局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092887977,"gmtCreate":1644586104654,"gmtModify":1676533943710,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092887977","repostId":"1130140404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130140404","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644585809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130140404?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-11 21:23","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"What impact will the suspension of thousands of mining operations have on major Southeast Asian resource-exporting countries?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130140404","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据界面新闻等报道，一份由印尼矿业部下属矿产和煤炭局发布的文件显示，由于未能提交2022年的工作计划，印尼已经暂停1000多个矿商的矿场（锡矿等）运营。在此前的1月初，印尼曾禁止煤炭出口1个月，或影响全","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports from Jiemian News and other sources, a document released by the Mines and Coal Agency under the Indonesian Ministry of Mines shows that Indonesia has suspended the operations of more than 1,000 miners' mines (tin mines, etc.) due to the failure to submit a work plan for 2022.</p><p>In early January, Indonesia had banned coal exports for a month, potentially affecting global coal prices, which was heavily covered by analysts' research reports.</p><p>What are the main mineral resources in Indonesia? What impact might this have?</p><p>Today we'll briefly review these issues.</p><p><b>Indonesia is rich in mineral resources</b></p><p>According to a research report by Guotai Junan Securities, Indonesia boasts a complete range of mineral resources, including bauxite, nickel ore, iron ore, copper, tin, gold, and silver, among which...<b>tin-nickel-aluminum</b>It has the richest reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9640a0c19f20e07f9d2da6eeaf59198a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding nickel,</b>According to a research report by Huaxin Securities, global nickel resources are mainly distributed in Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and other places. China has a shortage of nickel ore resources, with reserves accounting for only 3% of the world's total. In terms of production, the world's major nickel producing countries include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia, with Indonesia and the Philippines accounting for 44% of the total, while China's nickel ore production accounts for only 4.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce057b30be22c859fafbe25ef0eb1e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that against the backdrop of the booming development of the global new energy vehicle industry, China's nickel ore imports have been increasing year by year, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 80%. 50% of the imported nickel ore comes from Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's historical export restrictions, this may push up nickel metal prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36de095c1ed6b003ae245e8c7f2b1401\" tg-width=\"347\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding tin,</b>According to statistics, Indonesia ranks second in the world in tin reserves, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total. Meanwhile, Indonesia is also the world's second-largest tin producer, second only to my country with a production of 22%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ac1d4d3897a8c71c759548b70ad52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding bauxite,</b>China's dependence on foreign bauxite reaches about 60%, and 80% of its imported bauxite comes from Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's historical export controls, Guotai Junan Securities stated that this may lead to an increase in domestic bauxite prices, raising the production costs of simple alumina and electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, thereby pushing up electrolytic aluminum prices.</p><p><b>Indonesia's restriction of primary mineral exports is a major trend.</b></p><p>As the world's most upstream raw material supply base, Indonesia exports more than 90% of its nickel and aluminum metals in the form of primary mineral products, with very little deep processing. In order to change its large population and backward economy, the government has frequently proposed policies to restrict metal exports since 2002.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3fddc5e8231a5ee23552d48874de11\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On November 24, 2021, the Indonesian president stated that Indonesia might stop tin exports in 2024 in order to attract investment in the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance. The government may stop exporting bauxite in 2022 and copper ore in 2023.</p><p>Guotai Junan Securities believes that Indonesia's restrictions on primary mineral exports will be a major trend. Historically,<b>Strict implementation will significantly improve the supply and demand of aluminum and nickel.</b>This will support metal prices, and companies with high self-sufficiency rates are expected to benefit.</p><p><b>Third largest coal producer</b></p><p>Data shows that Indonesia is currently the world's third-largest coal producer and the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. Meanwhile, Indonesia is my country's largest importer of coal/thermal coal. In 2020, my country imported a total of 300 million tons of coal, of which 140.99 million tons were imported from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. Australia came in second, importing 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.</p><p>According to China Merchants Securities, in 2021, when Australia's coal ban was strictly implemented, Indonesian coal became the main import substitute, accounting for 60.9% in the first 11 months, with total imports reaching 178 million tons, an increase of 62 million tons, or 54%, year-on-year, which greatly alleviated the problem of tight coal supply in China.</p><p>Guosheng Securities stated that if Indonesian coal exports are banned, it will affect my country's imports by an average of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of the domestic effective supply, and it will be difficult to make up for this through other countries. If Indonesia's export ban continues for an extended period, it may cause my country's thermal coal market to return to a balance between supply and demand, or even to a slightly tight situation.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What impact will the suspension of thousands of mining operations have on major Southeast Asian resource-exporting countries?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat impact will the suspension of thousands of mining operations have on major Southeast Asian resource-exporting countries?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-11 21:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports from Jiemian News and other sources, a document released by the Mines and Coal Agency under the Indonesian Ministry of Mines shows that Indonesia has suspended the operations of more than 1,000 miners' mines (tin mines, etc.) due to the failure to submit a work plan for 2022.</p><p>In early January, Indonesia had banned coal exports for a month, potentially affecting global coal prices, which was heavily covered by analysts' research reports.</p><p>What are the main mineral resources in Indonesia? What impact might this have?</p><p>Today we'll briefly review these issues.</p><p><b>Indonesia is rich in mineral resources</b></p><p>According to a research report by Guotai Junan Securities, Indonesia boasts a complete range of mineral resources, including bauxite, nickel ore, iron ore, copper, tin, gold, and silver, among which...<b>tin-nickel-aluminum</b>It has the richest reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9640a0c19f20e07f9d2da6eeaf59198a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding nickel,</b>According to a research report by Huaxin Securities, global nickel resources are mainly distributed in Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and other places. China has a shortage of nickel ore resources, with reserves accounting for only 3% of the world's total. In terms of production, the world's major nickel producing countries include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia, with Indonesia and the Philippines accounting for 44% of the total, while China's nickel ore production accounts for only 4.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce057b30be22c859fafbe25ef0eb1e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that against the backdrop of the booming development of the global new energy vehicle industry, China's nickel ore imports have been increasing year by year, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 80%. 50% of the imported nickel ore comes from Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's historical export restrictions, this may push up nickel metal prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36de095c1ed6b003ae245e8c7f2b1401\" tg-width=\"347\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding tin,</b>According to statistics, Indonesia ranks second in the world in tin reserves, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total. Meanwhile, Indonesia is also the world's second-largest tin producer, second only to my country with a production of 22%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ac1d4d3897a8c71c759548b70ad52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding bauxite,</b>China's dependence on foreign bauxite reaches about 60%, and 80% of its imported bauxite comes from Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's historical export controls, Guotai Junan Securities stated that this may lead to an increase in domestic bauxite prices, raising the production costs of simple alumina and electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, thereby pushing up electrolytic aluminum prices.</p><p><b>Indonesia's restriction of primary mineral exports is a major trend.</b></p><p>As the world's most upstream raw material supply base, Indonesia exports more than 90% of its nickel and aluminum metals in the form of primary mineral products, with very little deep processing. In order to change its large population and backward economy, the government has frequently proposed policies to restrict metal exports since 2002.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3fddc5e8231a5ee23552d48874de11\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On November 24, 2021, the Indonesian president stated that Indonesia might stop tin exports in 2024 in order to attract investment in the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance. The government may stop exporting bauxite in 2022 and copper ore in 2023.</p><p>Guotai Junan Securities believes that Indonesia's restrictions on primary mineral exports will be a major trend. Historically,<b>Strict implementation will significantly improve the supply and demand of aluminum and nickel.</b>This will support metal prices, and companies with high self-sufficiency rates are expected to benefit.</p><p><b>Third largest coal producer</b></p><p>Data shows that Indonesia is currently the world's third-largest coal producer and the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. Meanwhile, Indonesia is my country's largest importer of coal/thermal coal. In 2020, my country imported a total of 300 million tons of coal, of which 140.99 million tons were imported from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. Australia came in second, importing 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.</p><p>According to China Merchants Securities, in 2021, when Australia's coal ban was strictly implemented, Indonesian coal became the main import substitute, accounting for 60.9% in the first 11 months, with total imports reaching 178 million tons, an increase of 62 million tons, or 54%, year-on-year, which greatly alleviated the problem of tight coal supply in China.</p><p>Guosheng Securities stated that if Indonesian coal exports are banned, it will affect my country's imports by an average of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of the domestic effective supply, and it will be difficult to make up for this through other countries. If Indonesia's export ban continues for an extended period, it may cause my country's thermal coal market to return to a balance between supply and demand, or even to a slightly tight situation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651702\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de37c6248d9a2641dda76d181c7cc1a6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651702","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130140404","content_text":"据界面新闻等报道，一份由印尼矿业部下属矿产和煤炭局发布的文件显示，由于未能提交2022年的工作计划，印尼已经暂停1000多个矿商的矿场（锡矿等）运营。在此前的1月初，印尼曾禁止煤炭出口1个月，或影响全球煤炭价格，而被分析师研报密集覆盖。印尼主要都有哪些矿产资源？这个事情又可能有哪些影响？今天我们来简单梳理一下这些问题。印尼矿产资源丰富据国泰君安研报数据显示，印尼矿产种类齐全、包括铝土矿、镍矿、铁矿沙、铜、锡、金、银等，其中尤其以锡镍铝储量最为丰富。镍方面，据华鑫证券研报数据，全球镍资源主要分布在印尼、澳大利亚、巴西等地，中国镍矿资源短缺，储量仅占全球的3%。产量上看，全球镍主要生产国有印尼、菲律宾、俄罗斯等，其中印尼和菲律宾合计占比达到44%，而中国的镍矿产量仅占4.8%。国泰君安指出，全球新能源汽车产业的发展如火如荼的背景下，中国镍矿进口量逐年增大，对外依存度达到80%以上，而进口的镍矿中50%来自印尼，结合历史上印尼限制出口情况来看的话，有可能会推升镍金属价格。锡方面，据统计数据，印尼锡储量位居世界第二，占世界总量的17%，仅次于占总量23%的中国；同时印尼的锡产量也是世界第二，以22%的产量成为仅次于我国。铝土矿方面，中国对国外铝土矿依存度达到60%左右，而进口的铝土矿中80%来自于印尼，结合历史上印尼出口控制情况来看的话，国泰君安表示，可能导致国内铝土矿价格上升，提升单纯的氧化铝、电解铝生产企业的生产成本，从而推升电解铝价格。印尼限制初级矿产品出口是大趋势作为全球最上游原料供应基地，印尼的镍及铝金属90%以上以初级矿产品形式出口，极少做深加工，为了改变自己人口众多、经济落后的现状，从2002年开始，印尼限制金属出口的政策就时常被政府提出。2021年11月24日，印尼总统就曾表示，印尼可能会在2024年停止锡出口，以吸引对资源加工业的投资并改善该国的外部平衡。政府可能会在2022年停止出口铝土矿，并在2023年停止出口铜矿石。国泰君安认为，印尼限制初级矿产品出口会是大趋势，从历史上来看的话，如果执行严格，将大幅改善铝、镍的供需面，从而对金属价格形成支撑，自给率高的企业有望受益。第三大煤炭生产国资料显示，目前印尼为全球第三大煤炭生产商，为世界上最大的动力煤出口国。同时印尼是我国煤炭/动力煤第一大进口来源国。2020年，我国累计进口煤炭3亿吨，其中自印尼进口14099万吨，占比46.4%，为第一大煤炭进口国。第二为澳洲，2020年进口7809万吨，占比25.7%。招商证券称在澳煤禁令严格实施的2021年，印尼煤炭成为主要的进口替代品，前11个月占比已跃升至60.9%，进口总量1.78亿吨，同比增加6200万吨，涨幅为54%，较大程度缓解中国煤炭供应紧张的难题。国盛证券表示，若印尼煤禁止出口，将月均影响我国进口约1600万吨，占国内有效供应的5.3%，且难以通过其他国家弥补。若印尼出口禁令长期持续或将造成我国动力煤市场重回供需平衡甚至略偏紧局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152275082,"gmtCreate":1625304368846,"gmtModify":1703740255698,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152275082","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}