kong1234 personal page - To The Moon

kong1234

kong1234

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2025-04-07

$耐克(NKE)$ gogogohhg

2024-06-28

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2024-06-28

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2024-01-15

$小米集团-W(01810)$ hhhh

2024-01-14

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2024-01-13

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2024-01-12

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2024-01-11

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2024-01-10

Fffffffffffffffffffffffffff

2024-01-09

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2024-01-08

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2024-01-07

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2024-01-06

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2024-01-05

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2024-01-04

Jejenrjrjejrjrjrjurjrjdidjrbrjrjr

2024-01-03

Fffffffffggggggggggggffyjhhhhh

2024-01-02

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2024-01-01

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2024-01-01

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2024-01-01

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Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9958498520,"gmtCreate":1673793755061,"gmtModify":1676538886289,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958498520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951539142,"gmtCreate":1673512696086,"gmtModify":1676538848790,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951539142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953044156,"gmtCreate":1673110876175,"gmtModify":1676538788595,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953044156","repostId":"2301781070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2301781070","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673082665,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2301781070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 17:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: If US inflation turns negative month-on-month, how should assets be allocated?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301781070","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国通胀环比可能转负，助力春季行情兑现1月12日（下周四）将公布美国12月CPI数据，我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负（中金大类资产-0.2%，市场一致预期0%，克利夫兰美联储0.12%，前值0.1%）。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>US inflation may turn negative month-on-month, helping the spring rally materialize.</p><p>The US December CPI data will be released on January 12 (next Thursday).<b>We predict that overall inflation will turn negative month-on-month.</b>(CICC Asset Class -0.2%, market consensus expectation 0%, Cleveland Federal Reserve 0.12%, previous value 0.1%). The overall decline in inflation was mainly due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d88ffddaef7f105d04d72b665d3c470\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the forecast comes true, this month's inflation data will mark the third consecutive month of better-than-expected decline in US inflation, and the first time in three years since the pandemic that the month-on-month inflation growth rate has clearly entered negative territory.</b>This may help boost expectations of easing and risk sentiment, and US Treasury bonds, gold, and growth stocks may all have opportunities to perform in the short term. We forecast core inflation to be 0.24% month-on-month in December (market consensus expectation 0.3%, Cleveland Fed's 0.48%, previous value 0.2%). Inflation in healthcare services and core commodities remained negative month-on-month, while the effect of rents on inflation continued to weaken, which is the main reason why core inflation remained weak. Other core service sub-categories have recently accelerated their growth, which may reflect that the U.S. labor market remains tight. However, other core service items only account for 13% of overall inflation, making it difficult to change the downward trend in inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa96e751d81b6ca3cb4c941d28acf686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96180cb4f39a397a551bd7f69b1d1c2f\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, U.S. wage increases this month fell short of expectations, and the supply-demand gap in the U.S. labor market is easing, reflecting that a cooling of labor market and service inflation is expected in the future. Using CICC's asset class CPI sub-item statistical forecast model (\"A New Perspective on Inflation Variables and Asset Changes\"), we judge that the month-on-month negative growth of overall inflation is not sustainable, and the month-on-month growth rate of overall inflation is more likely to be around 0.2% in the next few months. Nevertheless, compared to the central level of 0.8% in 2022, the month-on-month growth rate of inflation has dropped significantly in recent months. By iterating the month-on-month inflation growth rate, we can obtain the overall year-on-year inflation path. The model shows that the year-on-year growth rate of nominal inflation may fall below 3% in June 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae6f1e5ece8568c5de816513cae6702\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the baseline scenario is that high inflation is resilient, barring a black swan event, the \"variable scenario\" of a rapid decline in US inflation could become one of the most important macroeconomic themes in the first half of 2023, potentially having a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the performance of major global asset classes. In the Chinese market, the relative advantages of stocks relative to other assets gradually became apparent during the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions.<b>A turn to negative US inflation may increase the probability of this spring's rally materializing.</b>。</p><p>Expectations of Federal Reserve easing may intensify, leading to overweighting of US Treasury bonds, gold, and Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Despite US inflation declining more than expected twice in November and December last year, the Federal Reserve continues to send strong hawkish signals, which may be...<b>The Federal Reserve's risk-reward weighing of \"excessive tightening\" and \"insufficient tightening\"</b>The Federal Reserve made a serious mistake in its judgment of inflation in 2021, resulting in insufficient monetary tightening and causing U.S. inflation to rise to its highest level in the past 40 years. If the Fed eases too early before inflation is under control, it could lead to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>With credibility collapsing, the public no longer believes the Federal Reserve can control inflation, and the macroeconomic environment has returned to the \"Great Stagflation\" period of the 1970s. Therefore, the cost of \"insufficient tightening\" is high. In contrast, while \"excessive tightening\" could trigger an economic recession, the market had widely expected the United States to fall into recession in 2023. Compared to the long-term stagflation caused by \"insufficient austerity\", the cost of an economic recession is relatively low. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's response to improved inflation was relatively lagging, preferring to \"tighten excessively\" rather than \"tighten insufficiently\".</p><p>We believe that if inflation data continues to improve, it will eventually restore the Fed's confidence in declining inflation.<b>With inflation improving significantly, coupled with the risk of economic recession and the relatively fragile financial markets, the possibility of the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle or starting an easing cycle early is not low.</b>Furthermore, the magnitude of interest rate cuts after rate hike should not be underestimated: the Fed's scatter chart indicates that the cumulative rate cuts in 2024 and 2024 exceeded 200 basis points. Based on historical experience, the inversion of the 2s10s curve has reached a maximum of 84 basis points since the beginning of 2022, corresponding to a future Fed rate cut of approximately 450 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8c9c3978680642e9a8ec02f34c7fd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We predict that the Fed will end its rate hike in Q1 2023, with the rate hike endpoint in the 4.5%-5% range; Expectations for an interest rate cut may rise significantly in the second half of 2023. If a black swan event causes financial market turmoil, the possibility of ending the shrinking balance sheet early in 2023 cannot be ruled out. Even if the Federal Reserve continues its verbal hawkish stance, market expectations for easing are likely to increase further. Based on the Federal Reserve's current rate hike path, the equilibrium price of the 10-year US Treasury yield could be around 3.2%. We maintain our views and continue our predictions.<b>The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to around 3% in Q1 2023.</b>。 Declining US Treasury yields has improved global liquidity, which is beneficial to the performance of Hong Kong stocks and gold. In our November release, \"2023 Asset Class Outlook: Dramatic Changes,\" we recommended...<b>Overweight US Treasury bonds, gold, and Chinese stocks</b>The viewpoint has been initially realized.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ab064c058661bb64e599c9dad93a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If China's economy recovers strongly, attention should be paid to the risk of a \"second peak\" in inflation in Europe and the United States in the second half of 2023. Stocks will be downgraded from overweight to standard weight.</p><p>In our \"Asset Class 2022H2 Outlook: The Next Stop in Stagflation Trading\" released last June, we proposed the concept of \"inflation cost redistribution\": in the two decades before the pandemic, the economic growth of major countries could often promote each other, with China's economic recovery helping the economic growth of the US and Europe, and a strong US economy helping the economic growth of China and Europe. Following this line of thought, China's economic recovery in 2023 will help offset the negative impact of the global economic slowdown. However, in the post-pandemic world, the growth interaction between large economies such as China, the US, Europe, and Japan may have undergone profound changes: due to the impact of the pandemic, global aggregate supply is less than aggregate demand, and inflation in most economies has reached its highest level in decades. To cool down inflation, aggregate demand needs to be disrupted globally in order to achieve a balance between supply and demand. If China's economy recovers significantly, overseas inflationary pressures may rise again. At this point, overseas economies need to further tighten monetary policy and compress aggregate demand, meaning that overseas economies bear more of the cost of controlling inflation, which may put downward pressure on overseas stock markets. Given the strong correlation between global stock markets, volatility in overseas markets may affect China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c8117b6a1d13f0a7e82b6ab7deeba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f61430ddc9ccd76fe7203edfc2c08a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Based on the post-pandemic recovery experience of other countries/regions, economic recovery often does not happen overnight. China's growth recovery may also be a gradual process, and economic growth in 2023 may be low at the beginning and high at the end. Since improved growth takes time, and it also takes time for improved growth to be transmitted to rising inflation and for inflationary pressures to be transmitted from domestic to overseas, we believe that China's post-pandemic recovery may not significantly change the overseas inflation path in the first half of 2023, but inflation uncertainty has increased in the second half of 2023. Besides the risk of a second inflation peak, the possibility of overseas recession and the uncertainty of Chinese policy adjustments also need to be considered in the second half of 2023. These risk factors have increased significantly. Therefore, we recommend...<b>In the first half of the year, asset allocation focused on aggression, with an overweight position in Hong Kong and A-shares; In the second half of the year, the focus shifted to defense, with a more balanced and stable allocation, and equity assets were downgraded from overweight to standard.</b>(2023 Asset Class Outlook: Dramatic Changes).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f380af86a5efa96fa6d43c914e2380\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: If US inflation turns negative month-on-month, how should assets be allocated?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: If US inflation turns negative month-on-month, how should assets be allocated?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-07 17:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>US inflation may turn negative month-on-month, helping the spring rally materialize.</p><p>The US December CPI data will be released on January 12 (next Thursday).<b>We predict that overall inflation will turn negative month-on-month.</b>(CICC Asset Class -0.2%, market consensus expectation 0%, Cleveland Federal Reserve 0.12%, previous value 0.1%). The overall decline in inflation was mainly due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d88ffddaef7f105d04d72b665d3c470\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the forecast comes true, this month's inflation data will mark the third consecutive month of better-than-expected decline in US inflation, and the first time in three years since the pandemic that the month-on-month inflation growth rate has clearly entered negative territory.</b>This may help boost expectations of easing and risk sentiment, and US Treasury bonds, gold, and growth stocks may all have opportunities to perform in the short term. We forecast core inflation to be 0.24% month-on-month in December (market consensus expectation 0.3%, Cleveland Fed's 0.48%, previous value 0.2%). Inflation in healthcare services and core commodities remained negative month-on-month, while the effect of rents on inflation continued to weaken, which is the main reason why core inflation remained weak. Other core service sub-categories have recently accelerated their growth, which may reflect that the U.S. labor market remains tight. However, other core service items only account for 13% of overall inflation, making it difficult to change the downward trend in inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa96e751d81b6ca3cb4c941d28acf686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96180cb4f39a397a551bd7f69b1d1c2f\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, U.S. wage increases this month fell short of expectations, and the supply-demand gap in the U.S. labor market is easing, reflecting that a cooling of labor market and service inflation is expected in the future. Using CICC's asset class CPI sub-item statistical forecast model (\"A New Perspective on Inflation Variables and Asset Changes\"), we judge that the month-on-month negative growth of overall inflation is not sustainable, and the month-on-month growth rate of overall inflation is more likely to be around 0.2% in the next few months. Nevertheless, compared to the central level of 0.8% in 2022, the month-on-month growth rate of inflation has dropped significantly in recent months. By iterating the month-on-month inflation growth rate, we can obtain the overall year-on-year inflation path. The model shows that the year-on-year growth rate of nominal inflation may fall below 3% in June 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae6f1e5ece8568c5de816513cae6702\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the baseline scenario is that high inflation is resilient, barring a black swan event, the \"variable scenario\" of a rapid decline in US inflation could become one of the most important macroeconomic themes in the first half of 2023, potentially having a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the performance of major global asset classes. In the Chinese market, the relative advantages of stocks relative to other assets gradually became apparent during the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions.<b>A turn to negative US inflation may increase the probability of this spring's rally materializing.</b>。</p><p>Expectations of Federal Reserve easing may intensify, leading to overweighting of US Treasury bonds, gold, and Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Despite US inflation declining more than expected twice in November and December last year, the Federal Reserve continues to send strong hawkish signals, which may be...<b>The Federal Reserve's risk-reward weighing of \"excessive tightening\" and \"insufficient tightening\"</b>The Federal Reserve made a serious mistake in its judgment of inflation in 2021, resulting in insufficient monetary tightening and causing U.S. inflation to rise to its highest level in the past 40 years. If the Fed eases too early before inflation is under control, it could lead to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>With credibility collapsing, the public no longer believes the Federal Reserve can control inflation, and the macroeconomic environment has returned to the \"Great Stagflation\" period of the 1970s. Therefore, the cost of \"insufficient tightening\" is high. In contrast, while \"excessive tightening\" could trigger an economic recession, the market had widely expected the United States to fall into recession in 2023. Compared to the long-term stagflation caused by \"insufficient austerity\", the cost of an economic recession is relatively low. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's response to improved inflation was relatively lagging, preferring to \"tighten excessively\" rather than \"tighten insufficiently\".</p><p>We believe that if inflation data continues to improve, it will eventually restore the Fed's confidence in declining inflation.<b>With inflation improving significantly, coupled with the risk of economic recession and the relatively fragile financial markets, the possibility of the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle or starting an easing cycle early is not low.</b>Furthermore, the magnitude of interest rate cuts after rate hike should not be underestimated: the Fed's scatter chart indicates that the cumulative rate cuts in 2024 and 2024 exceeded 200 basis points. Based on historical experience, the inversion of the 2s10s curve has reached a maximum of 84 basis points since the beginning of 2022, corresponding to a future Fed rate cut of approximately 450 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8c9c3978680642e9a8ec02f34c7fd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We predict that the Fed will end its rate hike in Q1 2023, with the rate hike endpoint in the 4.5%-5% range; Expectations for an interest rate cut may rise significantly in the second half of 2023. If a black swan event causes financial market turmoil, the possibility of ending the shrinking balance sheet early in 2023 cannot be ruled out. Even if the Federal Reserve continues its verbal hawkish stance, market expectations for easing are likely to increase further. Based on the Federal Reserve's current rate hike path, the equilibrium price of the 10-year US Treasury yield could be around 3.2%. We maintain our views and continue our predictions.<b>The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to around 3% in Q1 2023.</b>。 Declining US Treasury yields has improved global liquidity, which is beneficial to the performance of Hong Kong stocks and gold. In our November release, \"2023 Asset Class Outlook: Dramatic Changes,\" we recommended...<b>Overweight US Treasury bonds, gold, and Chinese stocks</b>The viewpoint has been initially realized.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ab064c058661bb64e599c9dad93a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If China's economy recovers strongly, attention should be paid to the risk of a \"second peak\" in inflation in Europe and the United States in the second half of 2023. Stocks will be downgraded from overweight to standard weight.</p><p>In our \"Asset Class 2022H2 Outlook: The Next Stop in Stagflation Trading\" released last June, we proposed the concept of \"inflation cost redistribution\": in the two decades before the pandemic, the economic growth of major countries could often promote each other, with China's economic recovery helping the economic growth of the US and Europe, and a strong US economy helping the economic growth of China and Europe. Following this line of thought, China's economic recovery in 2023 will help offset the negative impact of the global economic slowdown. However, in the post-pandemic world, the growth interaction between large economies such as China, the US, Europe, and Japan may have undergone profound changes: due to the impact of the pandemic, global aggregate supply is less than aggregate demand, and inflation in most economies has reached its highest level in decades. To cool down inflation, aggregate demand needs to be disrupted globally in order to achieve a balance between supply and demand. If China's economy recovers significantly, overseas inflationary pressures may rise again. At this point, overseas economies need to further tighten monetary policy and compress aggregate demand, meaning that overseas economies bear more of the cost of controlling inflation, which may put downward pressure on overseas stock markets. Given the strong correlation between global stock markets, volatility in overseas markets may affect China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c8117b6a1d13f0a7e82b6ab7deeba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f61430ddc9ccd76fe7203edfc2c08a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Based on the post-pandemic recovery experience of other countries/regions, economic recovery often does not happen overnight. China's growth recovery may also be a gradual process, and economic growth in 2023 may be low at the beginning and high at the end. Since improved growth takes time, and it also takes time for improved growth to be transmitted to rising inflation and for inflationary pressures to be transmitted from domestic to overseas, we believe that China's post-pandemic recovery may not significantly change the overseas inflation path in the first half of 2023, but inflation uncertainty has increased in the second half of 2023. Besides the risk of a second inflation peak, the possibility of overseas recession and the uncertainty of Chinese policy adjustments also need to be considered in the second half of 2023. These risk factors have increased significantly. Therefore, we recommend...<b>In the first half of the year, asset allocation focused on aggression, with an overweight position in Hong Kong and A-shares; In the second half of the year, the focus shifted to defense, with a more balanced and stable allocation, and equity assets were downgraded from overweight to standard.</b>(2023 Asset Class Outlook: Dramatic Changes).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f380af86a5efa96fa6d43c914e2380\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95788229fc35f46529b4e1955e453669","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2301781070","content_text":"美国通胀环比可能转负，助力春季行情兑现1月12日（下周四）将公布美国12月CPI数据，我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负（中金大类资产-0.2%，市场一致预期0%，克利夫兰美联储0.12%，前值0.1%）。总体通胀下行主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。如果预测兑现，本月通胀数据将是美国通胀连续第3个月超预期下行，也是疫后三年通胀环比增速首次明显进入负值区间，可能有助于提振宽松预期与风险情绪，美债、黄金、成长风格股票都可能有阶段性表现机会。我们预测12月核心通胀环比0.24%（市场一致预期0.3%，克利夫兰美联储0.48%，前值0.2%）。医疗服务与核心商品通胀环比增速保持负数，同时房租对通胀推升效果持续减弱，是核心通胀维持弱势的主要原因。其他核心服务分项近期加速上行，可能反映美国劳动力市场仍然偏紧。但其他核心服务分项仅占总体通胀的13%，难以改变通胀下行大趋势。另外，本月美国工资涨幅不及预期，同时美国劳动力市场供需缺口正在缓和，反映劳动力市场与服务通胀未来降温可期。使用中金大类资产CPI分项统计预测模型（《新视角看通胀变数与资产变局》），我们判断总体通胀环比负增长不具有持续性，未来几个月总体通胀环比增速更可能在0.2%附近。尽管如此，相对于2022年的中枢0.8%，最近几个月通胀环比增速已经下了一个大台阶。把通胀环比增速迭代，可以得到总体通胀同比路径。模型显示2023年6月份名义通胀同比增速或降至3%以下。尽管基准情景是高通胀有韧性，但如果不出现黑天鹅事件，美国通胀快速下行这一“变数情景”可能成为2023H1最重要的宏观主题之一，或对美联储货币政策与全球大类资产走势产生重大影响。对于中国市场，从春节到两会期间股票相对其他资产的相对优势逐渐体现。美国通胀转负可能提升今年春季行情的兑现概率。美联储宽松预期或升温，超配美债、黄金、港股尽管美国通胀已经在去年11-12月连续两次超预期下行，美联储却持续释放强烈鹰派信号，可能是美联储在“紧缩过度”与“紧缩不足”之间根据风险收益权衡的结果：联储2021年对通胀的判断出现严重失误，导致货币紧缩不足，美国通胀一度升至过去40年最高水平。如果联储在通胀得到控制之前过早宽松，可能使中央银行信誉瓦解，公众不再相信联储能够控制住通胀，宏观环境重回70年代“大滞胀”时期，因此“紧缩不足”的代价较高。相比之下，“紧缩过度”虽然可能引发经济衰退，但本来市场已经广泛预期美国在2023年陷入衰退。与“紧缩不足”导致长期滞胀相比，经济衰退成本相对较低。因此美联储对通胀改善的反应相对滞后，宁可“紧缩过度”也不愿“紧缩不足”。我们认为如果通胀数据持续改善，最终会让联储对通胀下行重拾信心。通胀明显改善，叠加经济衰退风险与金融市场比较脆弱，联储提前结束紧缩周期或开启宽松周期的可能性并不低，且不宜低估加息之后的降息幅度：联储散点图提示24年与25年累计降息幅度超过200bp。根据历史经验，2022年初至今2s10s曲线倒挂最大幅度达到84bp，对应未来联储降息幅度约为450bp。我们预测联储于2023Q1结束加息，加息终点在4.5%-5%区间；2023H2降息预期可能明显升温。如果出现黑天鹅事件导致金融市场震荡，也不能排除2023年提前结束缩表的可能性。即使联储口头继续放鹰，市场宽松预期也大概率会继续加码。根据当前美联储加息路径，可以推出十年期美债利率均衡价格在3.2%左右。我们维持观点不变，继续预测十年期美债利率在2023Q1降至3%左右。美债利率下行改善全球流动性，利好港股与黄金表现。我们在11月发布的《2023年大类资产展望：势极生变》中建议超配美债、黄金与中国股票，观点已经初步兑现。若中国经济强劲复苏，2023H2需关注欧美通胀“二次冲顶”风险，股票从超配下调到标配在去年6月发布的《大类资产2022H2展望：滞胀交易的下一站》中，我们提出“通胀成本再分配”的概念：在疫情之前的二十年，各大国经济增长往往可以互相促进，中国经济复苏有助于美欧经济增长，美国经济强劲有助于中欧经济增长。按照这一思路，2023年中国经济修复，有助于对冲全球经济放缓的负面影响。但在疫后世界，中美欧日等大型经济体的增长互动关系可能已经发生深刻变化：由于疫情冲击，全球范围内总供给小于总需求，大部分经济体通胀达到过去几十年最高水平。为使通胀降温，需要在全球范围内破坏总需求，才能实现供需平衡。如果中国经济明显修复，海外通胀压力可能再次升温。此时需要海外经济体进一步收紧货币政策，压缩总需求，即海外承担更多控制通胀的成本，可能对海外股市形成压制。由于全球股市联动性较强，海外市场震荡可能波及中国。根据其他国家/地区疫后复苏经验，经济修复往往不会一蹴而就，中国增长修复可能也是一个渐进过程，2023年经济增长可能前低后高。由于增长改善需要时间，从增长改善传导到通胀上行、通胀压力从国内传导到海外也需要时间，我们认为中国疫后复苏可能不会明显改变2023H1的海外通胀路径，但2023H2通胀不确定性升高。除了通胀“二次冲顶”风险，2023H2还需考虑海外衰退可能性与中国政策调整不确定性，风险因素明显增多，因此我们建议资产配置上半年注重进攻，超配港股与A股；下半年转为防守，配置更加平衡稳健，将权益资产由超配下调为标配（《2023年大类资产展望：势极生变》）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPY":0.76,"TQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":0.76,"QLD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.76,"SSO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"IVV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956911081,"gmtCreate":1673878697044,"gmtModify":1676538897879,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956911081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958693623,"gmtCreate":1673709585163,"gmtModify":1676538877162,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958693623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958965475,"gmtCreate":1673615783697,"gmtModify":1676538865233,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958965475","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalSc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