My base case: Above $135. Rough probabilities: Above $135: 60% Below $135: 40% The bull case is that: Starlink keeps compounding revenue growth. Investors continue assigning premium multiples to AI, space, and infrastructure assets. Index inclusion creates sustained institutional ownership. The bear case is that: The IPO enthusiasm fades. Lockup expirations increase supply. The market decides the valuation got too far ahead of fundamentals. My prediction: SPCX opens around $165–180 (+22% to +33%) and finishes its first year around $170–220, assuming the broader market remains supportive. That's bullish, but not nearly as bullish as some of the projections circulating right now.