fuddie
fuddie
Optimistic investing, unstoppable growth
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avatarfuddie
08-18 02:37
Return on invested capital is one of the most important metrics for identifying a high-quality company. For example, if you bought $Alphabet(GOOG)$  at 8X price to book ratio and sold at 4X price to book ratio, your total return over 20 years would still be 560%. But if you bought $IBM(IBM)$  at 7X price to book ratio and sold at 9X price to book ratio, your total return would only be 166%. Why the massive difference? Google had a high return on invested capital. IBM did not. "We've really made the money out of high-quality businesses. Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns." - Charlie Munger
avatarfuddie
08-17 09:19
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ It looks like the move toward $500 has already begun. Not much to do now but hold on and see how it plays out.
avatarfuddie
08-13
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ The sell-off happened on very low volume. No major dark pool trading blocks were recorded. It looks like retail panic selling from weak hands. I expect a reversal fairly soon. We might see further selling, but it feels like the worst has passed and this is mostly profit taking. I am holding through this for the bigger move that is still ahead.
avatarfuddie
08-13
$Microsoft(MSFT)$  Even after the run-up, this still looks very undervalued to me. If you have to pick something among the Mag 7, it feels like the only sane buy right now. I'm not a huge fan of Microsoft's culture honestly, but it's hard to argue with the numbers they're putting up.
avatarfuddie
08-13
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Google shareholders have been selling off and moving that money into momentum names that are actually working. One of the stocks that's caught some of that flow is Netlist, which used to be a delisted penny stock. I'm long both Google and Netlist, but staying diversified makes sense here.
avatarfuddie
08-12
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Feels like Google is up to something big and bold with AI, possibly making Gemini free to undercut everyone and crush token prices. Risky approach, but it fits the Android playbook. That might explain why they keep raising, and I imagine they would have to dump their Anthropic shares at IPO. Their open-source models will have hooks into YouTube and other properties. Big moves are happening among the big players right now.
avatarfuddie
08-11
$Alphabet(GOOG)$  Not sure how much longer GOOGL can just sit at 17.74x PE. It feels like Wall Street is getting ready to load up. Cheaper would obviously be nice, but I'm highly doubtful we'll see that. Berkshire is likely to keep buying.
avatarfuddie
08-11
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft breaking out to its highest price in 9 months.
avatarfuddie
08-11
$Microsoft(MSFT)$  Everyone’s busy chasing the next AI winner, and Microsoft is quietly building the infrastructure they all have to rely on.
avatarfuddie
08-11
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ AI drug discovery seems to have moved past the hype phase. The real shift now is generative foundation models and de novo molecular design going from theoretical concepts into actual clinical trials. The first wave of fully AI-discovered therapeutics is moving through pivotal Phase II and III human trials, and the timelines tell the story — preclinical pipelines that used to take years are being compressed to months. On the de novo side, platforms are building entirely new chemical compounds and molecular glues from scratch, not just tweaking old drug templates. Multi-agent software frameworks and automated robotic labs are running continuous design-make-test-analyze cycles with minimal human input. What stands out is the ear
avatarfuddie
08-11
$ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Oracle(ORCL)$ CRM ATH $300 Feb 2025, currently at $196. MSFT ATH $530 Aug 2025, currently at $509. NOW ATH $225 Dec 2024, currently at $127. Long way to go to get back to those highs for most of these, except MSFT.
avatarfuddie
08-11
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ HTZ has over 114 million shares sold short, similar to what we saw with CAR in the past. Shorts never seem to learn, and they're handing us a short squeeze setup.
avatarfuddie
08-10
I checked with $Alphabet(GOOG)$  on this, and it seems $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  can award $X-Energy(XE)$  single-bid power contracts since the law doesn't restrict that type of agreement. That looks like a solid setup for XE to supply power to Amazon data centers.
avatarfuddie
08-07
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Warren Buffett put tens of billions into Google, that's a fact. The other guy is just some broke uneducated troll. It's really not more complicated than that.
avatarfuddie
08-07
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Some people here were already selling their positions. That move looks a bit questionable right now, doesn't it.
avatarfuddie
08-06
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ The pullback feels overdone, honestly. The market seems to act like only one or two people on the planet actually understand AI, but that's just not the case. There are plenty of strong options out there, and companies should be looking to bring in the best talent available.
avatarfuddie
08-06
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ As long as we stay above $485, the overall picture still looks decent. Even if a deeper pullback happens, I don't think it will drop below the $470 level. This just looks like a healthy digestion phase. By the end of August, I could see an attempt at $550.
avatarfuddie
08-04
$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ It looks like MSFT might be buying this one this month. Evan and Satya were seen hanging out in the Bay area.
avatarfuddie
08-04
$Microsoft(MSFT)$  AI infrastructure and mega-cap tech are still pulling in a lot of the market's liquidity. Among the names moving, NVDA is up 3.52%, MU gained 1.04%, SPCX rose 1.87%, and MSFT and AMZN are up 5.16% and 4.46% respectively. MSFT pushing toward 488.46, AMZN surging to 285.46, and NVDA coiling strong near 207.04. It looks like serious capital is flowing into core tech names, with liquidity being absorbed ahead of the next expansion.
avatarfuddie
08-03
$Microsoft(MSFT)$  It's about time. I'm looking for a rally back toward 500 or higher.

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