MichaelPerez
MichaelPerez
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avatarMichaelPerez
08-17 23:09
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Wall Street seems to want everyone focused on memory and hardware capex right now, which is probably why $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ , and $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$  are getting pushed so hard this week.
avatarMichaelPerez
08-17 20:51
$Micron Technology(MU)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Western Digital(WDC)$ $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ Bears are struggling to find bearish angles on memory right now, so they've shifted to sharing articles about a global economic collapse coming soon. That feels like a sign of desperation. They had their window to cover early. For about 20 days they pushed narratives that were mostly noise and baseless arguments. Bulls stayed quiet and trusted the bigger picture. They tried deleveraging concerns and China-related fears to knock it down, but none of it stuck. People come and go, but the fundamentals remain st
avatarMichaelPerez
08-17 11:06
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ I've been holding some December $70 leaps. Hoping this can push well into the 60s this week and keep grinding higher from there.
avatarMichaelPerez
08-17 00:15
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ The U.S. warning to Apple about not buying chips from China could act as a tailwind for memory stocks heading into the new week.
$POET Technologies Inc(POET)$ Going through the key points from their most recent earnings report. The ramp is still on schedule, and they confirmed an agreement with a Tier 1 laser company. There was also a $2.5m order from a repeat customer, and based on the accounts receivable recognized, shipments do seem to be moving out. There are some rumors floating around that NVDA might be using the POET Optical Interposer in their latest optical product. If that turns out to be accurate, LITE could be the Tier 1 laser company they referred to.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ I'm not selling anything as a long-term holder. The selling pressure looks more like day traders trying to grab a quick profit and move on. I can't really blame them, but I've been long here for 20 years and have no interest in selling at all. I don't need the money right now and sure don't want to pay a bunch of taxes on it. The grandkids will probably deal with it someday though. Feeling pretty fortunate to be long here.
$Coherent(COHR)$ Expecting an open above 380. The AI cycle is just getting started, and this supercycle could run for years. Copper will ultimately be replaced by fiber. Algos might load up cheap tomorrow, similar to what happened with LITE.
$Coherent(COHR)$ The stock is rallying into the call, just as I expected based on how $Lumentum(LITE)$  played out. The earnings report was outstanding. No reason this shouldn't be trading higher after that print. Everything beat, and guidance came in 21% above expectations.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ $Coherent(COHR)$ It feels like the smartest people in the world work for these two companies. There is just something different about them compared to the rest.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ When a CEO says his firm's backlog consists of contractually paid orders, that's a pretty big deal. I wish I had caught him saying that sooner, but I still think there's substantial upside going forward.
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$  Hopefully all the FOMO is gone and it is time to get back to the principles of investing. Is memory supply low? Is demand high? Is it going to increase or decrease?
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ Singapore's state fund Temasek is reportedly planning to invest in Samsung and SK Hynix. We might finally start seeing this take off.
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$  Above my projection trendline. The move speaks for itself.
$SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS AB(SIVEF)$ Pulling takeaways from the LITE call today. The read-through looks pretty bullish for SIVE.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Back in May, OCS was described as the biggest single tightrope, with supply gating both pace and slope. By Q4, that picture shifted: shipments doubled, and the first triple-digit OCS revenue quarter is now baked into guidance. At $1.01B in revenue, the 50% gross margin threshold arrived at roughly half the $2B run rate originally required — management acknowledged it came quite a bit sooner than expectations. With the $1.25B revenue target reached one quarter ahead of schedule, new financial targets are being deferred to the next OFC. Meanwhile, supply pressure has migrated to other areas. Pump lasers are now the new constraint, with demand running more than 30% above supply, triggering a fourfold ramp backed by 3-year take-o
$Lumentum(LITE)$  No need to worry, they pulled the same kind of games with AAOI before. Tomorrow should be good. These results are objectively excellent.
$SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS AB(SIVEF)$ I've been digging into this one quite a bit over the past few days. Finally opened a sizeable position in SIVE on the dip, which is exactly what I was waiting for.
$Lumentum(LITE)$  Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Sung Cho, co-head of public technology investing, made the case that the AI trade is shifting away from the graphics processor cycle and toward companies that are wiring AI together — specifically optical and fiber equipment makers. He pointed to Lumentum and Coherent as names to watch in that space.
$Altria(MO)$ $LIONSGATE STUDIOS CORP(LION)$ $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ I like these three right now. They are getting close to levels where they look extremely attractive. If we are lucky and get another 5% down, it would definitely be time to start scaling in.
$Lumentum(LITE)$  It looks like a coordinated effort to push the price down. If you check the history of some of these accounts posting negative comments, you will see the same pattern across different platforms. The message seems to be driven by paid bashers, and the larger players appear to be trying to shake out retail. I'm holding and adding more if I can.

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