$Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises(BW)$ Just the right amount of short interest combined with buying pressure and insane growth. With that kind of growth, it feels more likely than not that they could go on a run similar to AAOI.
Price targets are getting interesting. Rosenblatt has it at $320. Cantor Fitzgerald sees AI bit demand staying strong into 2029, while UBS is pointing to agentic AI as another potential demand driver. That's the part I'm watching. If AI infrastructure demand keeps expanding beyond today's hyperscaler buildout, the memory story could have a much longer runway than the market expects. $SK hynix(SKHY)$ is one I'm keeping firmly on the radar.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ The next tranche comes around late August, about 300 million shares, which should also get absorbed. That's only around 3.9%. The real test likely comes in the October to November window, with the Q3 earnings report and 2 billion shares unlocking.
Space stocks got crushed, but the underlying business didn't. The selloff feels more like capital rotation than a broken space thesis. Contracts are still being signed, demand is still building, and the next earnings wave could expose the disconnect between price action and fundamentals. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ pulled capital toward itself and pressured the rest of the sector. $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ launched three massive comm arrays, with 60 carriers and 3 billion subscribers tied to the story. $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ booked $663M from Space Force in just 9 days. $Planet Labs Pbc(PL)$ now has a
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ Unlock vs Dilution — I get that most people barely learn this stuff in school. It still surprises me how many traders confuse a stock unlock with dilution. An unlock just lets insiders trade shares they already own. Dilution is when the company actually creates new shares. One adds liquidity, the other expands supply. SpaceX unlocked shares — it didn't dilute. Retail keeps panicking over mechanics they don't even understand.
Current TTM PE is around 22x. I gave Kimi a screenshot of TradingView's EPS and the next four quarters of estimates, then had her work out what the next four quarters of TTM would look like assuming a 19% beat on current estimates. After that, I had her calculate the price using a 22x PE and the estimated earnings date. I'm also assuming there will be a Santa rally and that 2026 will end with $Micron Technology(MU)$ around $3000. I think $SK hynix(SKHY)$ carries less risk and more upside, but it's weighed down by South Korean markets that are anti retail investor.
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ This looks like it could keep going until the next major semi company reports — NVDA, SNDK, MU, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, and the like. At that point, a possible approach is trading SOXL, selling into strength, and buying the dip on this. The impact from China's recent developments on US markets is hard to overstate. I suspect Korean markets already got a taste of this drop through insider flows when their memory stocks tanked.