To The Moon

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$  Going through the numbers again for anyone new to this. AAOI has said at least 3 times now that they expect to have capacity for $471M/month in revenue for transceivers only by mid 2027. They have also said they believe they will still be capacity constrained, and will sell every part they can make. That suggests they will continue to increase capacity through the year. If that happens linearly, the AVERAGE monthly revenue would be $471M. That makes 2027 revenue at least $5.6B per year, not counting CATV which could be $300M. So we're looking at about $5.9B in revenue for 2027. The company has also said they can hit 16% net margins at volume, or $944M in profit. If we assume they

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$  It just engulfed the last 8 sessions. Hoping for a strong close to the week.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ Looking at the valuation discount on Korean memory stocks, it's pretty striking. Hanwha Investment & Securities ran the numbers using Bloomberg forecast data, and the forward P/E comparisons really stand out. Kioxia sits at 106.6x, TSMC at 24.4x, and Micron Technology at 18.3x. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are trading at just 6.3x and 8.6x respectively. Against the average P/E of 49.65x for those three peers, that puts Samsung and SK Hynix at a discount of roughly 82% to 87%.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$  There's resistance at $169. Can it close past $170? That's the key level to watch.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ SK is up 5.4% now. It's technically broken out of its trading corridor. That should hopefully attract more buying later on. Buy-side circuit breakers and sidecars are getting tripped in Korea. It's a beautiful thing.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$  $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ SanDisk looks like it's trying to break out of its downtrend. It has cleared the upper wall of its trading corridor, but it still needs to hold that level for confirmation.

$Micron Technology(MU)$ $SK hynix(SKHY)$ If the market doesn't bring the valuation, buybacks will still get it there anyway. I was already bullish on memory based on the HBM and strengthening consumer thesis I've been talking about. After the conference, I'm leaning toward the view that this works fine as a long-term hold even beyond that.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ How does SKHY navigate the cresting of margin increases? Short term, I think we see some volatility that works against the stock, but after that, the data center buildout over the next 3-5 years should bring a period of decent profits and give SKHY a boost. Will there be a memory glut? That depends on how corporate AI adoption plays out. I expect a large wave of adoption early on, then a slower stretch as companies wait for better products. The computer age was a massive boom from 1985-1991, then slowed down. The internet boom ran from 1995-2000, then crashed hard. The smartphone boom lasted from 2006-2026 — just look at AAPL's stock price over those years. The AI boom started in 2022 and we still have no clear sight of how b

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are projected to hold a combined $263.4 billion in net cash by the end of this year, according to Reuters. The figure is estimated to be more than twice Nvidia's net cash of about 145 trillion won and even higher than the combined net cash holdings of all the "Magnificent Seven" companies, such as Apple, Google and Microsoft. That's a pretty wild stat.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ Wondering if it's almost time to start buying this again. Still a bit wary after the market insanity that crushed SOXL over the last 3 months.