To The Moon

Wall Street has quickly moved from correction fears back to record-high excitement. On Monday, the Dow gained 1.32% to close at a record 53,178. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600, while the Nasdaq climbed 2.13%. Falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields gave growth stocks another boost, while strong earnings brought capital back into technology and AI names. That leaves investors facing an uncomfortable question: Are earnings pulling the market higher, or is fear of missing out creating a high-valuation melt-up? Tonight may provide an important answer. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Arista Networks(ANET)$ both report after the closing bell. AMD represents the computing layer of the AI buildout. Ar

Global risk sentiment improved today. Oil prices continued to retreat, easing concerns about energy-driven inflation and higher interest rates. The yen strengthened sharply as intervention expectations grew, temporarily reducing the risk of disorderly currency moves. Strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon also gave investors more confidence that some AI spending is already producing revenue. Several pressures that had weighed on technology stocks are now easing at the same time. The next test is whether this rebound can gain sustained support from earnings, cash flow and the macro environment. 1. Lower oil gives growth stocks some breathing room The earlier surge in oil prices raised concerns that energy costs would push inflation higher again and reduce the Federal Reserve’s room to ea

After several brutal sessions, global technology stocks finally staged a powerful rebound. The Nasdaq rose 2.8%, while Microsoft’s post-earnings surge helped lift AI chips, cloud stocks and data-center names across the board. The move became even more dramatic in Asia. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped sharply, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix surging as investors rushed back into semiconductor names. Taiwan’s market also rebounded strongly, led by TSMC. At first glance, this looks like a classic V-shaped reversal. But the more important question is: Has the correction really ended, or is the market only beginning a longer U-shaped repair process? Why did the rebound happen so quickly? The first reason is earnings. Microsoft showed that AI spending can already translate into cloud revenue, p

Microsoft and Meta reported earnings on the same night. Both are spending heavily on AI infrastructure, both raised or maintained aggressive investment plans, and both delivered strong revenue growth. The market still gave them opposite verdicts. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ rose more than 8% after hours as Azure growth, Copilot adoption and a strong outlook convinced investors that its AI spending is already generating measurable returns. $Meta Platforms(META)$ fell roughly 9% in premarket trading after free cash flow collapsed and capital expenditure remained close to record levels. Meta’s advertising business is still growing quickly, but investors want a clearer answer on how its enormous compute buildout will c

Tonight brings two major market tests at the same time. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. After the U.S. market closes, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Meta Platforms(META)$ will report earnings. (联邦储备系统) One event will shape the valuation investors are willing to pay for growth stocks. The other will determine whether Big Tech’s enormous AI spending can still support those valuations. Put simply: The Fed sets the valuation ceiling. Microsoft and Meta test the AI earnings floor. Test No. 1: The Fed decision The Fed entered this meeting with its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Holding rates steady remains the base case among economi

Three very different technology stories hit the market in the same session. China reportedly began producing domestically developed immersion DUV lithography machines, pressuring ASML and the broader semiconductor-equipment sector. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell about 5% as investors questioned how deeply the chip leader may become financially involved with the companies buying its hardware. Meanwhile, $Apple(AAPL)$ reached a record closing high and reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable listed company. Together, these moves suggest that the market is changing the way it values technology companies. The new questions are becoming clearer: Who controls a critical bottleneck? Who is taking on the financial r

Monday opened with a sharp reversal in the market narrative. Brent crude fell more than 6% toward $90 a barrel, while WTI dropped to around $84.5 after the United States and Iran paused attacks over the weekend. U.S. stock futures moved higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures leading the rebound as investors rotated back toward technology and other rate-sensitive assets. (Reuters) The logic is straightforward: Lower oil → less inflation pressure → lower rate anxiety → breathing room for growth stocks. But this is still a fragile relief trade. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, and attacks linked to Yemen’s Houthis continue to threaten Saudi oil infrastructure and traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The pause in fighting has created room for diplomacy, but it has

Last night’s selloff felt like more than a normal pullback. The Nasdaq fell 2.15%, while the VIX jumped more than 12% to 18.7. $Tesla(TSLA)$ plunged 14.53%, and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ dropped 7.13%. By several market estimates, the Magnificent Seven lost close to $800 billion in market value in a single session. At the same time, Brent crude moved above $100 per barrel and Treasury yields climbed. Two pressures hit growth stocks together: AI return concerns and renewed inflation risk. A week ago, the market was still rewarding companies for spending more aggressively on AI. Now investors are asking a harder question: When will all that spending turn into profit and free cash flow? 1. The capex scare finally a

Alphabet, Tesla and IBM reported earnings on the same night—and together they offered one of the clearest snapshots yet of where the AI spending cycle stands. Google showed that AI infrastructure can already drive explosive cloud growth. Tesla showed how quickly AI, robotaxi and robotics investment can consume cash before those businesses generate meaningful revenue. IBM showed another side of the cycle: corporate customers are prioritizing scarce servers, memory and storage, while some traditional IT projects are being delayed. The market is moving past a simple question—“Who is investing in AI?”—and focusing on something harder: Who can turn AI spending into revenue, margins and free cash flow? Google: AI demand is turning into cloud revenue Alphabet delivered the strongest operating gro

Alphabet will report its second-quarter results on Wednesday after the U.S. market closes. This earnings release matters far beyond $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ itself. TSMC and ASML have already shown that demand for advanced chips and semiconductor equipment remains strong. Google now has to answer the next question in the AI value chain: Can all that spending on chips, servers and data centers turn into cloud revenue, advertising growth and free cash flow? Wall Street currently expects roughly $116.8 billion in Q2 revenue, including about $22.2 billion from Google Cloud. Options markets are pricing in an earnings move of around 5.3%. The first test: Can Google Cloud keep growing above 60%? Google Cloud was Alphabet’s strongest business in the first quart