To The Moon

You buy an index like the S&P 500 to spread out your risk. Here’s what you are actually holding. The five largest companies now account for a record share of expected S&P 500 earnings over the next twelve months (around the mid-to-high 20s percent range in recent analyses, with market-cap weights for the top names even higher). Top holdings by weight typically include NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG), with Broadcom (AVGO), Meta (META), Micron (MU), and AMD frequently close behind. The top 10 often represent roughly 37–40% of the index’s market capitalization—levels not seen in decades. It goes further. Information Technology (especially semiconductors) continues to dominate earnings growth. In 2026, the IT sector has been forec

Higher crude prices trigger a rapid reallocation of cash flows and valuations across equity markets. Oil functions simultaneously as a direct revenue driver for producers and a major cost input for the rest of the economy. When prices move higher and remain elevated, the impact is rarely uniform: upstream energy captures the bulk of the upside while fuel-intensive and inflation-sensitive sectors absorb the pressure. The magnitude depends on the speed of the move, absolute price levels relative to corporate cost structures, and whether the rise stems from supply constraints or genuine demand strength. Sectors and Companies Positioned to Benefit Upstream exploration and production companies experience the most direct earnings leverage. Higher realized prices expand operating margins and free

Michael Burry’s current ledger is a sea of red, but he’s still drawing a crowd. The man who earned immortality by shorting the American housing market is currently taking a beating on two fronts: a agonizing, falling-knife long bet on Lululemon and an aggressive crusade against the AI complex. The burning question across Wall Street isn't just whether Burry is wrong—it’s whether he’s finally realized that running a paid newsletter is vastly superior to wrestling a market that refuses to bend to reality. Late last year, Burry pulled the plug on Scion Asset Management, returning outside capital and citing a fundamental disconnect with market pricing, alongside the stifling straightjacket of SEC disclosures. In its place, he launched Cassandra Unchained on Substack. Charging hundreds of dolla

A. MBS already holds the clear majority of Singapore gaming revenue and EBITDA, far outpacing Genting’s Resorts World Sentosa. LVS offers more direct exposure to this premium, expanding asset plus Macau upside.Genting Singapore (or parent Genting) also expands but trails in market share and profitability. Both benefit from Singapore’s tourism growth, yet LVS is the stronger pure-play compounder on the superior property.

table 11. Visa one of my biggest holdings have been quietly compounding while everyone focus are on hyperscalers. Examples from recent data: ~31–34% in 2025/2026 periods; multi-year averages often in the high 20s to low 30s. It comfortably exceeds Visa’s cost of capital (WACC typically estimated around 8%), creating a wide positive spread and substantial economic value. This reflects Visa’s asset-light network business model: enormous operating leverage, high margins (operating margins often ~60%+), strong free cash flow conversion, and limited need for heavy capital reinvestment relative to profits. The global payments network benefits from scale, network effects, brand strength, and high switching costs—classic durable competitive advantages that support ROIC persistence

The simplest idea in the market right now remains this: almost everything comes down to two players. Mr. Dollar and Mr. Yen.Not the latest earnings report. Not the Tesla Cybercab. Not NVIDIA’s newest announcement. Two currencies are setting the price of risk, and neither is playing fair.The dollar is the world’s primary funding and reserve currency. The yen has long been the cheap source of leverage for the global carry trade. When Japanese rates stay low relative to U.S. rates and the yen weakens, borrowed yen floods into higher-yielding assets everywhere. Liquidity expands. Risk appetite rises. When that relationship threatens to reverse, the same leverage unwinds quickly.This is why the current rally keeps getting sold as an AI story. It sounds clean and fundamental. Yet one question ke

The U.S. dollar is being steadily debased, and most people feel it before they understand it. Prices for housing, food, energy, and healthcare keep rising faster than wages for many households. This is not primarily the work of greedy corporations or supply-chain accidents. It is the predictable result of persistent fiscal deficits financed by monetary expansion. When governments spend far beyond tax receipts and central banks accommodate the difference, the currency’s purchasing power erodes. History is unambiguous on this point: every fiat currency eventually suffers this fate to varying degrees. The post-1971 dollar is no exception. For a Singapore-based investor, hedging against dollar debasement carries a unique double constraint: The Currency Drag (S$NEER): Because the Monetary Autho

Gold Following a major early-2026 correction back to fair value (~$3,900/oz), gold is positioned for a gradual, upward trajectory through late 2026. Central bank demand, monetary debasement concerns, and ongoing geopolitical risks provide strong structural tailwinds. Tactical volatility remains likely as markets weigh Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Semis Semis face moderate upside with elevated short-term chop. Hyperscale AI capital expenditures and robust data-center demand supply a solid fundamental floor. However, high valuations, supply-chain normalizations, and potential macro deceleration will keep near-term gains selective, heavily favoring top-tier chipmakers over broader cyclical plays. Stocks Stocks are expected to deliver low-to-moderate single-digit returns fo

 HOOD and IBKR offer contrasting investment cases within the brokerage/fintech space. HOOD is a high-growth, retail-focused disruptor evolving into a financial “super app,” while IBKR is a scaled, automated global platform emphasizing professional trading, low costs, and operating leverage. Both benefit from rising retail and institutional participation, but they differ sharply in valuation, risk profile, growth drivers, and durability. Robinhood (HOOD) Investment Thesis Bull Case   HOOD’s core thesis centers on capturing the next generation of wealth as Millennials and Gen Z enter peak earning years and inherit trillions. Key pillars include: User base and engagement**: 28.4 million funded customers (still growing), with high attach rates for Gold subscriptions (record 4.8

STI recently hit an all-time high near 5,768 (closing) / 5,774 (intraday) in mid-August 2026, now hovering ~5,720–5,736. Banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB; ~57% weight) drove much of the ~24% YTD total return amid strong earnings and wealth inflows. Other majors (e.g., ST Engineering, SGX) also contributed positively. Further upside is possible if earnings growth (~10–12% expected) continues, rates ease, and Singapore’s economy remains resilient (AI, infrastructure, services). Consensus targets and historical patterns after ATHs support moderate gains, though valuations have tightened and profit-taking occurs. Market breadth remains narrow—many non-bank STI stocks lag. Mid-caps (e.g., iEdge Next 50) have underperformed STI YTD (~5–8% vs. 24%), despite rising liquidity, institutional inflows, and SG