To The Moon

hey everyone, Wonton Investor here! ever since i started working, i found it hard to continue investing. balancing gym, work, family, friends, personal hobbies, health, good sleep, and finance is all impossible to do within a span of 24 hours. over the past few months, I've been trying to find ways tobgo around the main issues i personally face with investing, and i believe this struggle is a common one shared by many of us here: i'm subscribed to way too many finance newsletters, and for the longest time my research process was having twenty tabs open, three newsletters i hadn't read yet, and a notes app full of half-finished thoughts. so pretty much every time i wanted to check on a stock, i had to rebuild the whole picture from scratch. so i built my own mini research des

update: AMD reported, so here's how it went: - revenue $13.4B vs $13.1B expected, up 45% from a year ago - EPS $2.09 vs $1.94 expected - data center $8.5B, up 97%, with the new MI450 GPUs starting to ship - Q4 guide around $17B vs $16.2B expected - management now expects 2027 revenue to grow more than 80% and this time the stock went up, around 8% after hours historically, AMD's shares have fallen even with earnings beat. so what changed this time? the big one: data center $8.5B, nearly double last year. that's the new MI450 GPUs starting to ship. Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle are already running on Helios, AMD's first full-rack system (the thing i said mattered more than any faster chip) management also expects 2027 revenue to grow 80%+. analysts were at ~60%. and they sai

AMD reports Q3 tomorrow night (US time), so here's the thing i keep reminding myself before every print. the last 5 times AMD reported: - Q2 2026: beat by 3.1%, stock -7.0% the next day - Q1 2026: beat by 5.9%, stock +18.6% - Q4 2025: beat by 16.0%, stock -17.3% - Q3 2025: beat by 2.4%, stock +2.5% - Q2 2025: missed by 0.5%, stock -6.4% so 4 beats, and the stock only went up after 2 of them. last quarter they beat, raised guidance, and still fell 7% because gross margin came in 2 points light. if i do buy on an earnings print, these are my rules: size it like a lottery ticket, use swing-trading money not long-term money, no averaging down if it goes wrong, and write the exit down before going in. but AMD is already at nearly 10% of my portfolio, so i'll probably not buy before earnings thi

hey everyone, Wonton Investor here. let's talk about the part of the AI trade that everyone's excited about right now, which is optics and power. over the past few months i've been buying into the "plumbing" of AI data centres - optical modules (AAOI, LITE), connectivity chips (MXL), timing chips (SITM) and storage (STX, WDC). the reason is pretty simple. once a data centre has enough GPUs, the limit stops being how smart each chip is and starts being how fast the chips can talk to each other. copper wire runs out of distance and bandwidth, so you have to go optical, and the companies making that "nervous system" become the interesting ones. and this earnings season, every single one of my six names beat and raised. so you'd think i'd be super bullish. and i am on the demand. but i've actu

hey everyone, Wonton Investor here. sorry for the radio silence lol, i've been busy with school and internships. but i'm back, and i wanted to start with my best position ever, AMD, which i've held since 2022 and wouldn't buy today. why i bought it (it wasn't genius) my reasoning in 2022 was basically "Nvidia is obviously the AI chip winner, but it's expensive and everyone owns it, so i'll buy AMD, the other one". the classic retail move of buying the second-place horse because the first-place one costs too much. then DeepSeek happened in early 2025. everyone panicked that cheap Chinese AI meant US tech was finished, and i doubled my position instead. my argument was that cheaper AI means people use MORE of it, not less (the Jevons paradox), and that the shift towards inference would favou

Coinbase reported Q3, so here's the full rundown and how my 3 tells did. the headline numbers: net revenue was $1.16B, basically flat on last quarter but down 34% on last year. transaction revenue was $590M (down 44% YoY) because consumer spot trading volume fell 59%, and monthly transacting users dropped to 7.4M from 9.3M a year ago. subscriptions and services held up better at $570M, which is now 49% of revenue, so the diversification story is actually showing up in the numbers. the new stuff is doing real work. prediction markets only launched in February and already passed a $200M annualised run-rate, and together with derivatives they're now about 25% of transaction revenue. trading market share went up for the 4th quarter in a row to 10.7%. the not-so-new stuff is weaker: staking (bl

hey everyone, Wonton Investor here. let's talk about Coinbase again. some of you on here might remember my two earlier $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  posts. in December 2024 i pitched it as a Peter Lynch cyclical, a business whose earnings swing with the crypto cycle, so the trick is to buy it when things look dead. i said i'd only buy at a 20% discount to my ~$180 intrinsic value estimate, so under $150. then in mid-2025, after the GENIUS Act passed and the big institutions started building on Coinbase, i wrote that i was doubling down and that COIN had gone from a cyclical buy to a long-term foundational hold. this is the follow-up i promised back then. it's mostly an accountability post. getting lucky, then getting greedy on Libe

fake news? 

Hey everyone, Wonton Investor here. Let's talk about Coinbase. A few months ago, I laid out my thesis on $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ . I saw it as a fantastic, foundational company, but one that was ultimately a cyclical stock. My whole strategy was built around the idea of: wait for the inevitable "crypto winter," for sentiment to sour and the price to drop, and then buy the dip on a great asset. Today, I'm back to talk about that thesis. But I'm not here to rewrite it. I'm here to tell you I'm doubling down. Everything I believed about Coinbase's fundamental strengths is not only proving true, but the recent turn of events suggests that the boom of Coinbase - one that I previously thought was cyclical - is now seemingly leaning towards be

So we’ve all definitely heard about DeepSeek by now right? (I’m definitely late to the party for this article lol). And we’ve heard many people talk about how it’s definitely the end of American tech! But is it really, and should you start selling all your tech stocks like the media is telling you to? DeepSeek’s Technical Prowess Before i start talking about all the investing jargon, i wanna talk more about what DeepSeek ACTUALLY is first - what their technical papers discussed, what they ACTUALLY reported, and whether what the media has been telling you has been true. Firstly, yes, it’s true that DeepSeek indeed performed better than OpenAI in SOME benchmarks. and yes, this does (to a certain extent) prove DeepSeek’s technical capabilities. So let’s dive into the technical report further

Introduction Hello to everyone reading this blog! I’m the The Wonton Investor and this is gonna be my first blog post. In case you haven’t read my bio, I am a Singaporean student studying Computer Science who loves tech, finance, and, of course, wontons. I’m here to share my investing journey and the lessons I’ve learnt over the past 4 years of investing, and also personal finance tips on how I gather capital for investments as a uni student! I have invested across many types of financial instruments, including stocks, t-bills, crypto, bonds, options, NFTs - you name it, I’ve tried it! I have also tried many things from building my own startup/online businesses to doing Venture Capital and Software Engineering internships. This will be my first blog entry as The Wonton Investor, and I wann