Shyon

🎓 Mechanical Engineer 📦 SCM Certification 📊 Technical Analysis 🌏 Investor 🇺🇸🇸🇬🇲🇾🇭🇰 Tesla

    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-20 18:47
      I think the 25% residual-value guarantee is both the foundation and the biggest risk of the deal. It gives lenders confidence to finance massive GPU deployments, but the real question is whether these chips will still have meaningful value when the loans mature in 3–5 years. I’m encouraged by the fact that older $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ GPUs like the A100 are still being used, while CUDA keeps extending the useful life of existing hardware. But unlike cars or aircraft, there isn’t a mature secondary market for obsolete GPUs, so depreciation risk remains difficult to price. For me, the structure is bullish for AI infrastructure in the near term, but I wouldn’t treat the
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-20 18:43
      Berkshire ending 14 straight quarters of net selling is definitely worth watching. It could be an early sign that the most cautious money in the market is starting to regain confidence. I don’t see it as an all-out bullish signal, but capital is clearly rotating back into AI, semiconductors and infrastructure. CoreWeave, SMCI and Lumentum also show that investors are increasingly looking beyond quarterly revenue and focusing on backlogs, long-term contracts and future cash flows. The big question now isn’t whether money is coming back — it’s which companies can actually turn that capital spending into sustainable profits. Valuations still matter, especially after the strong AI rally we’ve already seen. For me, this is a reason to stay invested but remain selective, rather than chase every
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-20 14:10
      I think the market is moving early rather than simply getting it wrong. The $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ story has shifted from “how strong is AI demand?” to “where is the money funding that demand?” That uncertainty naturally hits leveraged optical names like $COHERENT(COHR)$ and $Lumentum(LITE)$ first. I don't think AI demand is broken yet. I’m watching actual orders, cash flow and funding much more closely, especially for companies like $
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-20 13:09
      I would choose $Alphabet(GOOG)$ . Google Cloud’s strong growth, expanding margins and huge backlog show that its massive AI spending is starting to translate into real revenue. I also like the TPU story because it gives Alphabet another potential AI infrastructure advantage beyond relying entirely on Nvidia. For the downgrades, I can understand the argument on PLTR and CRWD. I still think both are excellent businesses, but when valuations become extremely demanding, even strong execution may not be enough to drive further upside. I’d rather wait for a meaningful pullback than chase them after such strong runs. Overall, my strategy is buy quality growth at a reasonable valuation, not quality at any price. GOOG looks more attractive to me today, wh
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-20 13:03
      If I had to choose between Target and Estée Lauder after earnings, I’d lean toward $Estee Lauder(EL)$ . The 16% jump is significant, but the results suggest its turnaround may finally be gaining traction. Improving China demand and strong fragrance growth from Tom Ford and Le Labo give me more confidence in its recovery. I also like $Target(TGT)$ setup, with stronger traffic, digital sales growth and a raised full-year outlook. However, part of the EPS strength came from tariff refunds, so I’d like to see more evidence that earnings can continue improving without one-off benefits. For me, EL has more upside potential, while
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-20 09:39
      I’m staying cautious on long-duration bonds for now. A 30-year yield above 5.3% is attractive, but oil prices, inflation concerns, weaker foreign demand and heavy Treasury supply could keep long-term yields elevated. I’d rather wait for more clarity from the Fed minutes and the Iran situation before locking in rates. For my portfolio, higher yields also mean pressure on high-duration growth and AI stocks because future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. However, I don’t see this as a reason to abandon AI or semiconductors. I’d continue DCA selectively and keep some cash ready for further pullbacks. For now, I prefer short-duration bonds or cash, while watching for signs that yields have peaked. If the 30-year moves significantly higher but inflation starts cooling, I’d be more comf
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-20 01:10
      $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ I'm still averaging up my position in $SOXL$ despite the recent pullback and correction because I see it as a reset within the broader semiconductor uptrend, rather than a reason to abandon my thesis. The recent weakness has brought down some of the overheated sentiment around AI and semiconductors, but the underlying demand story remains strong. AI infrastructure, data centers, high-performance computing and memory continue to require enormous amounts of semiconductor capacity, and I believe the long-term cycle still has plenty of room to run. The correction is actually one of the reasons I'm more comfortable adding gradually. After the strong rally earlier, valuations and expectations had
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-20 01:05
      $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I continue to average up my position in $Palantir(PLTR)$ because I'm investing in the long-term AI story, not simply chasing the recent price momentum. Palantir has built a strong position at the intersection of AI, data analytics and enterprise software, with its platforms becoming increasingly important for companies and governments looking to turn AI into real-world applications. For me, the key is that Palantir is not just an AI "story" — it has an established business, recurring customers and a platform that can potentially scale significantly as AI adoption accelerates. Another reason I'm comfortable averaging up is the company's execution. Palantir continues to demonstrate strong demand for its AI cap
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-19 23:10
      I’d pick A — a company I like that’s down 30% from its high. I’d rather take advantage of a meaningful pullback in a company whose fundamentals and long-term story remain intact than chase a stock simply because it’s making new highs. For me, names like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $Micron Technology(MU)$ can become especially interesting after a correction. A 30% drawdown doesn’t automatically mean the thesis is broken; sometimes it creates a much better risk/reward entry point,
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·08-19 23:02
      I’m still constructive on Singapore banks, especially $DBS(D05.SI)$ . The continued hiring in wealth management, AI, data and technology tells me DBS is positioning for long-term growth rather than simply expanding headcount. Singapore’s growing wealth-management ecosystem should continue creating opportunities for the banking sector. I also like the bigger picture: more capital flowing into Singapore → more assets under management → stronger wealth and fee income → greater investment in talent and technology. With net interest margins facing pressure, I think wealth management and non-interest income will become increasingly important for DBS and its peers. Overall, I remain bullish on Singapore’s financial sector, although I wouldn’t chase bl
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