A 70% Win Rate Still Hands You 4 Losses In A Row, 43% Of The Time Over 100 Trades
4 losses in a row with a 70% win rate. Your system didn't break. You just met math. Over 100 trades, there is a 43% chance of at least one streak like that. Why a streak feels like a signal Four losses in a row feels like a pattern. It feels like something changed. So the instinct is to fix a rule, tighten a filter, or skip the next setup. That instinct has a cost. If you change the rules in the middle of a sample, you delete the evidence you were collecting. Here is how to check whether the streak means anything before you touch a thing. The three checks Check one: find your real win rate over a decent sample. Count wins and trades from your journal. Use the whole record, not the last month. In the example below the win rate is 70%. Check two: ask how often a streak this long happens by c
$NFLX 20261113 76.0 CALL$ Poor results. Poor sentiment. Bearish market. Selling a call to cover the leap decay abit. Finding opportunity to exit this position