Kelvin 梁

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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-30 21:56
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-30 11:00
      $CityDev(C09.SI)$ What to watch Execution on the divestment pipeline is the swing factor: Citi argues ROE would exceed its current forecast if the S$1bn divestment-gain target is met Tiger News , so slippage here would undercut the bull case. Capital allocation to China/Japan — the specific item that triggered the selloff. Citi's counter is that CDL is likely to sell existing projects there before committing new capital, which would make the geographic impact negligible Tiger News .
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-30 06:06
      $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — Comprehensive Analysis Conclusion: Berkshire is a low-beta, cash-rich conglomerate trading at a modest valuation (P/B 1.44, ~4% below its own 5-year median multiple), with a fundamentally strong but optically volatile earnings profile. The stock has been range-bound for a year — flat-to-slightly-negative over 12 months and sitting mid-range (52nd percentile) of its 52-week band. The core story is now a leadership-transition + capital-deployment story rather than a Buffett-driven one, and the market is pricing that transition with a slight discount rather than a premium.
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-30 06:06
      $Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$ SCHG — Recent Bullish & Bearish News Bottom line: There is no SCHG-specific corporate news flow to report — SCHG ( Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF watchlist ) is a passive index ETF, so its news is entirely macro/thematic rather than company-specific. The two dominant forces right now cut in opposite directions: AI capex momentum (bullish for its megacap-growth holdings) versus a hawkish Fed rate shock (bearish for high-multiple growth). The tape reflects the tug-of-war — SCHG sits at USD 35.91, only 1.43% below its 52-week high and in the 93.9th percentile of its 52-week range.
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-30 06:06
      $Occidental(OXY)$ Occidental Petroleum (OXY) — Comprehensive Analysis Conclusion Occidental Petroleum (OXY) watchlist presents a mixed, valuation-supported but technically weak picture. The core case is a large-cap integrated oil & gas producer trading at a low absolute multiple (P/E TTM ~8.4x, forward P/E ~9.1x — both well below its own 3-year average of ~16.2x), with a dramatically deleveraged balance sheet (debt ratio down to 25.7% from 40.1%) and strong recent earnings growth. However, the stock is in a clear short- and medium-term downtrend, sitting ~2% below the average holder cost, with the analyst consensus target implying meaningful upside that the market has so far not delivered. The risk-reward skew is modestly positive on valu
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-30 06:06
      $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) — Outlook Conclusion: The setup is a high-level consolidation rather than a breakdown. SPY sits just under 2% below its 52-week high after a 12% one-year gain, with the medium-term uptrend intact but momentum stalling over the past month. Positioning is stretched by price level (near the top of its 52-week range), so the risk-reward is roughly balanced — further upside depends on earnings delivery and rate policy, while the main vulnerability is a valuation-driven pullback if either disappoints.
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-29 22:52
      $TME 20261120 7.0 PUT$ TME (Tencent Music) — Recent Bullish & Bearish News Bottom line: The news flow over the past quarter is genuinely two-sided. The bull case rests on steady Q2 revenue/profit growth, a strong balance sheet plus investment-grade ratings, and a widening content-ecosystem push (Himalaya, film/TV partnerships, AI tooling). The bear case centres on "revenue up, profit not up" — margin pressure from the Himalaya integration, a still-unproven long-audio-to-paid-music conversion, and the structural threat AI-generated content poses to the "exclusive licensed content" subscription narrative. The stock has been drifting lower: TME (TME) watchlist closed 2026-09-29 at USD 7.945, −5.08% on the day, with the Hon
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-29 21:58
      $UPST 20261009 20.0 PUT$ Upstart Holdings (UPST) — Outlook Conclusion: the fundamental trajectory is improving, but the market is pricing in a lot of doubt — the stock is in a clear downtrend, sitting near its 52-week low, while consensus estimates still point to strong earnings growth. The gap between the two is the core tension: either the market is discounting a credit/funding deterioration that hasn't shown up in reported numbers yet, or the selloff has created a valuation setup that leaves a reasonable margin of safety. On the data available, the risk-reward skew looks modestly positive on a 12-month view, but it is not a low-volatility position.
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-29 06:12
      $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — Recent Bullish & Bearish News Bottom line: The news flow over the past two months is dominated by two offsetting themes. Bullish: a strong Q2 (net profit more than doubled, buybacks stepped up), an aggressive new capital-deployment stance under CEO Greg Abel (Lennar, Taylor Morrison, Alphabet/AI), and a smooth chairman handover. Bearish: the stock has badly lagged the market this year, insurance underwriting is softening, and the company is concentrating fresh money into a US housing market still under pressure from ~7% mortgage rates.
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    • Kelvin 梁Kelvin 梁
      ·09-29 06:12
      $Occidental(OXY)$ Occidental Petroleum (OXY) — Recent News Summary Bottom line: The most concrete recent developments are analyst target-price revisions (all upward, all bullish ratings) and a notable 2026-09-16 disclosure that value investor Duan Yongping sold all his OXY call options. On the price side, OXY has been drifting lower with the broader energy complex on weak crude prices.
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