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- Michelle87Michelle87
  ·2021-06-12
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- Michelle87Michelle87
  ·2021-06-08
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  Bank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928
  目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚
  Bank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928
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- Michelle87Michelle87
  ·2021-06-08
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  Bank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928
  目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚
  Bank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928
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23:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141823276","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。\n美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚","content":"<p>There is currently a heated discussion in the market about whether the US stock market is \"overprosperous,\" with some investors worried that the US stock market may experience a large-scale correction due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Trying to find clues from historical data. The bank's statistics show that monthly data since 1928 indicates that the traditional stock market adage of \"selling in May\" is not true, and US stocks are likely to experience a summer rally.</p><p><h2>The stock market proverb \"sell in May\" does not hold true</h2>Bank of America stated that monthly data since 1928 shows that the traditional \"May sell\" strategy does not hold true, and the S&P 500 is likely to experience a summer rally.</p><p><b>From a monthly perspective, although the return in May was negative, it was an excellent monthly buying opportunity.</b>The average return in June was approximately 0.77%; The average return in July was 1.58%, the highest of the year; The return in August was also quite good, averaging 0.7%.</p><p>September was the weakest month of the year, with an average return of -1.03%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffef396fe83da8fb05a1fcf928aca356\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"presidential rally\" also confirms the pattern of the summer rally in US stocks.</p><p><b>Statistics show that in the first year of a new US president's term, large-scale rebounds in US stocks are typically concentrated in July and August.</b>The probability of a rise in July reached 65%, with a historical average return of 2.28%. September and October were relatively weak months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac31bf82d51f9dc069f81cb79ee98d7\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The cross-month pattern also reflects the summer upward trend.</h2>From a monthly perspective, Bank of America statistics show that June-August was the second best-performing three months of the year, with a 65% probability of an increase and an average return of 3.18%. The weakest three months of the year are August to October, with a 55% probability of an increase, but an average return of only -0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723af01581079a022899a5dacf947ed\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"816\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>August to October are the three weakest months of the year.<b>This means that there is a risk of a correction in US stocks in the fall.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b56d223976b66649f0adb71a21b3cce\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The first 10 trading days of a month yield higher returns</h2>In terms of short-swing trading, monthly data since 1928 shows that<b>The market tends to perform better in the first 10 trading days of a month than in the last 10 trading days (except in December).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0204fb5c8b49191b3a1d854be72a01\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>June and July are the months when the relevant patterns are most obvious.</b>The average probability of an increase in the first 10 trading days of June was 59%, with an average return of 0.71%, and the probability of an increase in the last 10 trading days was 47%, with an average return of -0.01%. The probability of an increase in the first 10 trading days of July is 68%, with an average return of 1.53%, and the probability of an increase in the last 10 trading days is 59%, with an average return of -0.02%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32f3689760a04aa567b8b1c2daaaa1\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"827\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The rebound in US stocks may continue.</h2>Bank of America emphasized that the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index has reached a new high, which is precisely the leading indicator for the S&P 500's record high. This may indicate that the market will continue to rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d72ba609108e876b7927dd14251dae4\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bank of America predicts that if the indicator continues to rise, the S&P 500 is expected to gain further upward momentum and move towards the 4,400-4,500 point range.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c480d60762f6cae516e86860cf3bbbc\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 23:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is currently a heated discussion in the market about whether the US stock market is \"overprosperous,\" with some investors worried that the US stock market may experience a large-scale correction due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Trying to find clues from historical data. The bank's statistics show that monthly data since 1928 indicates that the traditional stock market adage of \"selling in May\" is not true, and US stocks are likely to experience a summer rally.</p><p><h2>The stock market proverb \"sell in May\" does not hold true</h2>Bank of America stated that monthly data since 1928 shows that the traditional \"May sell\" strategy does not hold true, and the S&P 500 is likely to experience a summer rally.</p><p><b>From a monthly perspective, although the return in May was negative, it was an excellent monthly buying opportunity.</b>The average return in June was approximately 0.77%; The average return in July was 1.58%, the highest of the year; The return in August was also quite good, averaging 0.7%.</p><p>September was the weakest month of the year, with an average return of -1.03%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffef396fe83da8fb05a1fcf928aca356\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"presidential rally\" also confirms the pattern of the summer rally in US stocks.</p><p><b>Statistics show that in the first year of a new US president's term, large-scale rebounds in US stocks are typically concentrated in July and August.</b>The probability of a rise in July reached 65%, with a historical average return of 2.28%. September and October were relatively weak months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac31bf82d51f9dc069f81cb79ee98d7\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The cross-month pattern also reflects the summer upward trend.</h2>From a monthly perspective, Bank of America statistics show that June-August was the second best-performing three months of the year, with a 65% probability of an increase and an average return of 3.18%. The weakest three months of the year are August to October, with a 55% probability of an increase, but an average return of only -0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723af01581079a022899a5dacf947ed\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"816\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>August to October are the three weakest months of the year.<b>This means that there is a risk of a correction in US stocks in the fall.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b56d223976b66649f0adb71a21b3cce\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The first 10 trading days of a month yield higher returns</h2>In terms of short-swing trading, monthly data since 1928 shows that<b>The market tends to perform better in the first 10 trading days of a month than in the last 10 trading days (except in December).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0204fb5c8b49191b3a1d854be72a01\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>June and July are the months when the relevant patterns are most obvious.</b>The average probability of an increase in the first 10 trading days of June was 59%, with an average return of 0.71%, and the probability of an increase in the last 10 trading days was 47%, with an average return of -0.01%. The probability of an increase in the first 10 trading days of July is 68%, with an average return of 1.53%, and the probability of an increase in the last 10 trading days is 59%, with an average return of -0.02%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32f3689760a04aa567b8b1c2daaaa1\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"827\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The rebound in US stocks may continue.</h2>Bank of America emphasized that the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index has reached a new high, which is precisely the leading indicator for the S&P 500's record high. This may indicate that the market will continue to rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d72ba609108e876b7927dd14251dae4\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bank of America predicts that if the indicator continues to rise, the S&P 500 is expected to gain further upward momentum and move towards the 4,400-4,500 point range.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c480d60762f6cae516e86860cf3bbbc\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632326\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271cfa4439cda1437f20c9b60f7c187d","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632326","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141823276","content_text":"目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。\n美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚语并不成立，美股大概率将经历夏季上涨行情。\n“5月卖出”的股市谚语并不成立\n美国银行表示，自1928年的月度数据显示，传统的“5月卖出”的策略并不成立，标普500指数大概率经历夏季上涨行情。\n从月份角度，5月回报率虽然为负但是绝佳的阶段性月度买点：6月的平均回报率约为0.77%；7月的平均回报率为1.58%，为全年最高；8月的回报率也相当不错，平均达到0.7%。\n9月才是全年表现最弱的月度，平均回报率为-1.03%。\n“总统行情”也确认美股夏季行情的规律。\n统计显示在美国新总统上任的第1年，美股的大规模反弹通常集中在7—8月：7月相关上涨概率达到65%，历史平均回报率达到2.28%。9-10月份则是相对疲弱的月份。\n\n跨月规律也显示夏季上涨规律\n在跨月角度，美国银行统计显示，6—8月是全年中表现第2好的3个月，相关上涨概率达到65%，平均回报率达到3.18%；1年中最弱的3个月是8月至10月，上涨概率为55%，但平均回报率仅为—0.03%\n\n而8月—10月则是全年中最弱的3个月，这意味着美股存在秋季回调的风险。\n单月中的头10个交易日回报率更高\n在短线交易方面，自1928年的月度数据显示，单月的前10个交易日市场表现往往比后10个交易日更强（12月除外）。\n6、7月份是相关规律显示最为明显的月份。6月前10个交易日平均上涨概率为59%，平均回报率为0.71%，后10个交易日上涨概率为47%，平均回报率为—0.01%。7月前10个交易日上涨概率为68%，平均回报率为1.53%，后10个交易日上涨概率59%，平均回报率为-0.02%。\n美股反弹或将继续延续\n美国银行强调，目前彭博美国金融状况指数突破新高，而这恰恰是标普500指突破新高的领先性指标。这或许暗示市场将继续上行。美国银行预测认为，如果该指标继续上行，标普500指数有望获得进一步上涨动能，向4400—4500点区间迈进。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114470713,"gmtCreate":1623101122132,"gmtModify":1704195922772,"author":{"id":"3586139690737893","authorId":"3586139690737893","name":"Michelle87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/429c789d2f4cb22fa57e9febd51117b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586139690737893","idStr":"3586139690737893"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114470713","repostId":"2141823276","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141823276","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623080428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141823276?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 23:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141823276","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。\n美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚","content":"<p>There is currently a heated discussion in the market about whether the US stock market is \"overprosperous,\" with some investors worried that the US stock market may experience a large-scale correction due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Trying to find clues from historical data. The bank's statistics show that monthly data since 1928 indicates that the traditional stock market adage of \"selling in May\" is not true, and US stocks are likely to experience a summer rally.</p><p><h2>The stock market proverb \"sell in May\" does not hold true</h2>Bank of America stated that monthly data since 1928 shows that the traditional \"May sell\" strategy does not hold true, and the S&P 500 is likely to experience a summer rally.</p><p><b>From a monthly perspective, although the return in May was negative, it was an excellent monthly buying opportunity.</b>The average return in June was approximately 0.77%; The average return in July was 1.58%, the highest of the year; The return in August was also quite good, averaging 0.7%.</p><p>September was the weakest month of the year, with an average return of -1.03%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffef396fe83da8fb05a1fcf928aca356\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"presidential rally\" also confirms the pattern of the summer rally in US stocks.</p><p><b>Statistics show that in the first year of a new US president's term, large-scale rebounds in US stocks are typically concentrated in July and August.</b>The probability of a rise in July reached 65%, with a historical average return of 2.28%. September and October were relatively weak months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac31bf82d51f9dc069f81cb79ee98d7\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The cross-month pattern also reflects the summer upward trend.</h2>From a monthly perspective, Bank of America statistics show that June-August was the second best-performing three months of the year, with a 65% probability of an increase and an average return of 3.18%. The weakest three months of the year are August to October, with a 55% probability of an increase, but an average return of only -0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723af01581079a022899a5dacf947ed\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"816\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>August to October are the three weakest months of the year.<b>This means that there is a risk of a correction in US stocks in the fall.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b56d223976b66649f0adb71a21b3cce\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The first 10 trading days of a month yield higher returns</h2>In terms of short-swing trading, monthly data since 1928 shows that<b>The market tends to perform better in the first 10 trading days of a month than in the last 10 trading days (except in December).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0204fb5c8b49191b3a1d854be72a01\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>June and July are the months when the relevant patterns are most obvious.</b>The average probability of an increase in the first 10 trading days of June was 59%, with an average return of 0.71%, and the probability of an increase in the last 10 trading days was 47%, with an average return of -0.01%. The probability of an increase in the first 10 trading days of July is 68%, with an average return of 1.53%, and the probability of an increase in the last 10 trading days is 59%, with an average return of -0.02%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32f3689760a04aa567b8b1c2daaaa1\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"827\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The rebound in US stocks may continue.</h2>Bank of America emphasized that the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index has reached a new high, which is precisely the leading indicator for the S&P 500's record high. This may indicate that the market will continue to rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d72ba609108e876b7927dd14251dae4\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bank of America predicts that if the indicator continues to rise, the S&P 500 is expected to gain further upward momentum and move towards the 4,400-4,500 point range.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c480d60762f6cae516e86860cf3bbbc\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America: Some Investment Patterns in US Stocks Since 1928\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 23:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is currently a heated discussion in the market about whether the US stock market is \"overprosperous,\" with some investors worried that the US stock market may experience a large-scale correction due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Trying to find clues from historical data. The bank's statistics show that monthly data since 1928 indicates that the traditional stock market adage of \"selling in May\" is not true, and US stocks are likely to experience a summer rally.</p><p><h2>The stock market proverb \"sell in May\" does not hold true</h2>Bank of America stated that monthly data since 1928 shows that the traditional \"May sell\" strategy does not hold true, and the S&P 500 is likely to experience a summer rally.</p><p><b>From a monthly perspective, although the return in May was negative, it was an excellent monthly buying opportunity.</b>The average return in June was approximately 0.77%; The average return in July was 1.58%, the highest of the year; The return in August was also quite good, averaging 0.7%.</p><p>September was the weakest month of the year, with an average return of -1.03%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffef396fe83da8fb05a1fcf928aca356\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"presidential rally\" also confirms the pattern of the summer rally in US stocks.</p><p><b>Statistics show that in the first year of a new US president's term, large-scale rebounds in US stocks are typically concentrated in July and August.</b>The probability of a rise in July reached 65%, with a historical average return of 2.28%. September and October were relatively weak months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac31bf82d51f9dc069f81cb79ee98d7\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The cross-month pattern also reflects the summer upward trend.</h2>From a monthly perspective, Bank of America statistics show that June-August was the second best-performing three months of the year, with a 65% probability of an increase and an average return of 3.18%. The weakest three months of the year are August to October, with a 55% probability of an increase, but an average return of only -0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723af01581079a022899a5dacf947ed\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"816\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>August to October are the three weakest months of the year.<b>This means that there is a risk of a correction in US stocks in the fall.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b56d223976b66649f0adb71a21b3cce\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The first 10 trading days of a month yield higher returns</h2>In terms of short-swing trading, monthly data since 1928 shows that<b>The market tends to perform better in the first 10 trading days of a month than in the last 10 trading days (except in December).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0204fb5c8b49191b3a1d854be72a01\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>June and July are the months when the relevant patterns are most obvious.</b>The average probability of an increase in the first 10 trading days of June was 59%, with an average return of 0.71%, and the probability of an increase in the last 10 trading days was 47%, with an average return of -0.01%. The probability of an increase in the first 10 trading days of July is 68%, with an average return of 1.53%, and the probability of an increase in the last 10 trading days is 59%, with an average return of -0.02%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32f3689760a04aa567b8b1c2daaaa1\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"827\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The rebound in US stocks may continue.</h2>Bank of America emphasized that the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index has reached a new high, which is precisely the leading indicator for the S&P 500's record high. This may indicate that the market will continue to rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d72ba609108e876b7927dd14251dae4\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bank of America predicts that if the indicator continues to rise, the S&P 500 is expected to gain further upward momentum and move towards the 4,400-4,500 point range.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c480d60762f6cae516e86860cf3bbbc\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632326\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271cfa4439cda1437f20c9b60f7c187d","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632326","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141823276","content_text":"目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。\n美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚语并不成立，美股大概率将经历夏季上涨行情。\n“5月卖出”的股市谚语并不成立\n美国银行表示，自1928年的月度数据显示，传统的“5月卖出”的策略并不成立，标普500指数大概率经历夏季上涨行情。\n从月份角度，5月回报率虽然为负但是绝佳的阶段性月度买点：6月的平均回报率约为0.77%；7月的平均回报率为1.58%，为全年最高；8月的回报率也相当不错，平均达到0.7%。\n9月才是全年表现最弱的月度，平均回报率为-1.03%。\n“总统行情”也确认美股夏季行情的规律。\n统计显示在美国新总统上任的第1年，美股的大规模反弹通常集中在7—8月：7月相关上涨概率达到65%，历史平均回报率达到2.28%。9-10月份则是相对疲弱的月份。\n\n跨月规律也显示夏季上涨规律\n在跨月角度，美国银行统计显示，6—8月是全年中表现第2好的3个月，相关上涨概率达到65%，平均回报率达到3.18%；1年中最弱的3个月是8月至10月，上涨概率为55%，但平均回报率仅为—0.03%\n\n而8月—10月则是全年中最弱的3个月，这意味着美股存在秋季回调的风险。\n单月中的头10个交易日回报率更高\n在短线交易方面，自1928年的月度数据显示，单月的前10个交易日市场表现往往比后10个交易日更强（12月除外）。\n6、7月份是相关规律显示最为明显的月份。6月前10个交易日平均上涨概率为59%，平均回报率为0.71%，后10个交易日上涨概率为47%，平均回报率为—0.01%。7月前10个交易日上涨概率为68%，平均回报率为1.53%，后10个交易日上涨概率59%，平均回报率为-0.02%。\n美股反弹或将继续延续\n美国银行强调，目前彭博美国金融状况指数突破新高，而这恰恰是标普500指突破新高的领先性指标。这或许暗示市场将继续上行。美国银行预测认为，如果该指标继续上行，标普500指数有望获得进一步上涨动能，向4400—4500点区间迈进。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}