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- XiaogouteXiaogoute
  ·2021-06-26
  Ok
  A comprehensive review of reports from eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?
  随着6月临近尾声，不少券商发布了下半年宏观和资产配置报告。从八大券商对下半年宏观经济的预测来看，整体方向相对一致，但结构上还是存在一些比较明显的分歧，故而对资产配置的建议也是不尽相同。 01、关于全球
  A comprehensive review of reports from eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?
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- XiaogouteXiaogoute
  ·2021-06-25
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  Opening: Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs! Technology stocks continue their strong performance
  6月24日（周四），纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨91.1点，涨幅0.64%，报14362.8点；标普500指数开盘上涨22.36点，涨幅0.53%，报4264.20点；道琼斯指数开盘上涨182.35点，涨
  Opening: Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs! Technology stocks continue their strong performance
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Judging from the macroeconomic forecasts of the eight major securities firms for the second half of the year, the overall direction is relatively consistent, but there are still some obvious differences in structure, so their suggestions for asset allocation are not entirely the same.</p><p><b>01. Regarding the global economy</b></p><p>As developed countries (especially the United States) have begun to dominate the global recovery this year, the recovery and liquidity of overseas economies have brought more important marginal variables to the driving force of the domestic economy and asset allocation. Most securities firms agree that they remain cautiously optimistic about controlling the global pandemic in the second half of the year. The global recovery has entered a resonant recovery phase. The imbalance will ease somewhat.</p><p>Among them, Industrial Bank<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The recovery theme will shift to service consumption: \"The growth rate of US goods consumption is expected to peak and decline due to the tapering of fiscal stimulus and partial overdraft of demand, while the growth rate of service consumption is expected to decline due to the easing of pandemic restrictions and a large gap, making a high-slope recovery more certain. This may have two impacts: First, the driving effect of the US economic recovery on Chinese exports may decrease;\" Second, it exacerbates the mismatch between labor supply and demand in the United States and increases the risk of a negative feedback loop between wage inflation and inflation. \"The supply-demand gap in the United States is expected to narrow, with service consumption taking over from goods consumption as the main support.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>It is believed that Europe and the United States will enter an overheating period marked by total capital expenditure: \"The constraints of the pandemic on the US and European economies may be lifted in early Q3 and early Q4 respectively. In the second half of the year, the US and Europe may successively enter an economic overheating period marked by total capital expenditure. Demand on the B2B side (production side) will begin To increase significantly, which will cause the highlights of global trade To shift To the middle and upper reaches in the second half of the year.\"</p><p>Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>They are relatively cautious, believing that the path to easing the global pandemic will not be smooth. \"The variants of the virus in India and South America are further complicating the global prevention and control situation, and the road to recovery in global service consumption in the second half of the year is expected to remain arduous; after the withdrawal of excessive subsidies, the recovery of manufacturing employment remains a long and arduous task. The curse of a permanent decline in potential output continues.\"</p><p><b>02. Regarding global inflation</b></p><p>Most securities firms share a relatively consistent view on inflation, agreeing that prices are rising rapidly due to the impact of the base, the pandemic, logistics, and the supply-demand mismatch. In the future, as production gradually recovers and demand support may weaken after the reduction of fiscal subsidies, the supply-demand gap is expected to gradually narrow after Q3. At the same time, the cardinality effect weakens. Overall inflation in the United States fell year-on-year at the end of the year.</p><p>among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>The report states that the mismatch between labor supply and demand in the United States has increased the risk of a negative feedback loop between \"wage inflation\" and \"inflation\" in the United States. U.S. inflation may exceed market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01776\">GF Securities</a>They believe that the current global \"high inflation\" may be a structural problem. The only major economies with CPI significantly higher than the 2011-2019 average are India and the United States. Global inflation in the second half of the year may exhibit four characteristics: after the base shift, the year-on-year PPI level in most economies around the world is expected to decline; With the upward slope of transportation costs such as sea freight constrained, imported inflationary pressures in some countries are expected to ease. The year-on-year CPI in the United States has shifted downward but not low, and inflationary pressures on goods have decreased but inflation on services has increased. The year-on-year CPI center of exporting countries may show varying degrees of upward movement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>It was mentioned that the easing of suppression of service consumption will increase inflationary pressure on the service sector, which accounts for more than 60% of US inflation.</p><p><b>03. Regarding economic policies and liquidity</b></p><p>Regarding US monetary policy, discussions in the third quarter and the implementation of QETaper at the end of the year or early next year have almost reached a consensus. The more obvious disagreement lies in the degree of normalization of monetary policy and its impact on liquidity.</p><p>Industrial Securities stated that in the medium to long term, the post-pandemic US government debt pressure has reached a record high, and Biden's 2022 fiscal budget has further exacerbated the US debt pressure. The significant increase in the dependence of US Treasury bonds on the Federal Reserve may mean that the Fed is \"irreversible\".</p><p>Guangfa<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>It is believed that US fiscal and monetary policy will shift from accommodative to neutral-loose. However, Europe's fiscal and monetary easing continues, and the recovery fund is expected to be launched in the third quarter, bringing incremental benefits to global liquidity and recovery.</p><p>Of course, some securities firms have expressed caution that the combination of Taper and the US TGA account shifting from releasing liquidity to withdrawing liquidity in the second half of the year, coupled with the passage of the US tax increase policy, may have a significant impact on liquidity.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>This indicates that overseas monetary and fiscal stimulus, which had been clearly excessive and even had a \"distorting effect\" in the early stages, still needs to be exited with difficulty, and the asset bubble frenzy may be nearing its end.</p><p><b>04. Regarding the Chinese economy</b></p><p>Views on Chinese economic securities firms are relatively consistent. Overall, the inertia of China's economic rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic is nearing its end, and economic growth may gradually return to a new platform. Structurally, the continued improvement in consumption and the continued recovery of manufacturing investment may become important growth drivers, while there is not much disagreement regarding the slowdown in the growth rates of exports and real estate investment.</p><p>Meanwhile, in terms of inflation, the PPI peaked in May, and the overall central level fell in the second half of the year. The CPI rose slightly in the second half of the year, but the overall consistency in moderation was also relatively strong.</p><p><b>05. China's economic policies and liquidity</b></p><p>Due to the obvious characteristics of \"loose monetary policy and tight credit\" in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, there are some differences in securities firms' expectations for economic policies and liquidity in the second half of the year. Overall, keeping a close eye on credit will be the main theme throughout the year. However, the period of the fastest decline in social financing growth has passed.</p><p>The main differences in monetary policy lie in the monetary policy stance, with differences between \"easy to loosen but difficult to tighten\" and \"easy to tighten but difficult to loosen\". In terms of reasons, the \"easy easing but difficult tightening\" is mainly due to the decline in economic growth and money demand, the resolution of existing debt for structural transformation, and the reduction in macroeconomic leverage pressure. The reasons for the \"easy tightening but difficult loosening\" include the unchanged trend of marginal tightening, continuing to cherish the window of opportunity to advance regulation and reform, the postponement of local government debt issuance, and the impact of overseas liquidity.</p><p>Industrial Securities also stated that the second half of the year may be a valuable window of opportunity to resolve the \"historical issues\" of structural transformation, and attention should be paid to the risk of rising credit risk. GF Securities stated that fiscal measures in the second half of the year will lead to a narrow contraction in liquidity. Furthermore, as a window of opportunity, structural reforms will accelerate in the second half of the year. Haitong Securities stated that stabilizing the macro leverage ratio throughout the year means that the more money is injected at the beginning, the less money may need to be injected later. Credit is \"not in a hurry\" in the first two months, but it may need to \"turn around\" later.</p><p>There are also disagreements regarding the expected acceleration of fiscal spending as local government bond issuance accelerates, as well as fiscal tightening.</p><p><b>06. Regarding asset allocation in the second half of the year</b></p><p>US Dollar US Treasury yields: Optimism is slightly divided!</p><p>The high proportion of people who are optimistic about the strengthening of the US dollar in US Treasury yields is mainly due to the fermentation and acceleration period of the Federal Reserve's Taper reaction. The disagreement lies in the narrowing recovery gap between Europe and the United States, the narrowing interest rate differential between Europe and the United States, which has hampered carry trades, while limiting the pressure on the RMB to depreciate.</p><p>US stocks: Fluctuating upwards!</p><p>There is little disagreement regarding the US stock market; the main concern is that profitability will be the main factor supporting it. However, attention should be paid to the sensitive timing of Taper and the short-term impact of Biden's tariff increases.</p><p>Gold: The upward trend has ended!</p><p>Gold is affected by interest rates and inflation, both of which are trend-driven factors, and will face downward pressure in the second half of the year. Unless driven by risk aversion.</p><p>Commodities: The upside potential is nearing its end!</p><p>The main reason is that monetary policy has returned to neutrality and the supply-demand gap has eased. The overall price may rise again around the fourth quarter, but the upward slope will not be as high as before. Looking at different commodities, the overall outlook for crude oil, energy, and chemicals is positive, and there is still room for growth. The supply-demand gap may narrow, but there are differences in the magnitude of the rise. Nonferrous metals have entered the mid-to-late stages of price increases due to pressure from industrial and monetary withdrawals; Ferrous metals are fluctuating due to the supply-demand gap and will continue to face upward pressure.</p><p>A-shares: Structural opportunities!</p><p>With expectations of a slowing economic cycle and a stable financial cycle, the stock market is likely to fluctuate. Valuation-driven growth will give way to profit-driven growth. Different securities firms have different views on structural opportunities, including gradually shifting their focus to some long-term growth sectors; Pay attention to the opportunities brought to the manufacturing industry by the slowdown in upstream prices (profit margins) and the advancement of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" (policy dividends); Focus on sectors with high short-term prosperity, medium-term core assets, and long-term high-quality growth; And pay attention to the recovery from sectors that benefited from the pandemic to sectors that were damaged by the pandemic. The main focus is on the disruptions to the domestic market caused by US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index.</p><p>Bonds: Strategic (allocation) promising!</p><p>Disagreements over bond assets stem primarily from disagreements over liquidity and future economic performance. Overall, the economy has entered a phase of steady decline, while inflation expectations are falling, which is beneficial to the performance of bond assets, while the supply side is also declining. The issuance of local government bonds and the handling of credit risk may cause disruptions.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A comprehensive review of reports from eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA comprehensive review of reports from eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-26 10:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As June draws to a close, many securities firms have released their macro and asset allocation reports for the second half of the year. Judging from the macroeconomic forecasts of the eight major securities firms for the second half of the year, the overall direction is relatively consistent, but there are still some obvious differences in structure, so their suggestions for asset allocation are not entirely the same.</p><p><b>01. Regarding the global economy</b></p><p>As developed countries (especially the United States) have begun to dominate the global recovery this year, the recovery and liquidity of overseas economies have brought more important marginal variables to the driving force of the domestic economy and asset allocation. Most securities firms agree that they remain cautiously optimistic about controlling the global pandemic in the second half of the year. The global recovery has entered a resonant recovery phase. The imbalance will ease somewhat.</p><p>Among them, Industrial Bank<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The recovery theme will shift to service consumption: \"The growth rate of US goods consumption is expected to peak and decline due to the tapering of fiscal stimulus and partial overdraft of demand, while the growth rate of service consumption is expected to decline due to the easing of pandemic restrictions and a large gap, making a high-slope recovery more certain. This may have two impacts: First, the driving effect of the US economic recovery on Chinese exports may decrease;\" Second, it exacerbates the mismatch between labor supply and demand in the United States and increases the risk of a negative feedback loop between wage inflation and inflation. \"The supply-demand gap in the United States is expected to narrow, with service consumption taking over from goods consumption as the main support.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>It is believed that Europe and the United States will enter an overheating period marked by total capital expenditure: \"The constraints of the pandemic on the US and European economies may be lifted in early Q3 and early Q4 respectively. In the second half of the year, the US and Europe may successively enter an economic overheating period marked by total capital expenditure. Demand on the B2B side (production side) will begin To increase significantly, which will cause the highlights of global trade To shift To the middle and upper reaches in the second half of the year.\"</p><p>Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>They are relatively cautious, believing that the path to easing the global pandemic will not be smooth. \"The variants of the virus in India and South America are further complicating the global prevention and control situation, and the road to recovery in global service consumption in the second half of the year is expected to remain arduous; after the withdrawal of excessive subsidies, the recovery of manufacturing employment remains a long and arduous task. The curse of a permanent decline in potential output continues.\"</p><p><b>02. Regarding global inflation</b></p><p>Most securities firms share a relatively consistent view on inflation, agreeing that prices are rising rapidly due to the impact of the base, the pandemic, logistics, and the supply-demand mismatch. In the future, as production gradually recovers and demand support may weaken after the reduction of fiscal subsidies, the supply-demand gap is expected to gradually narrow after Q3. At the same time, the cardinality effect weakens. Overall inflation in the United States fell year-on-year at the end of the year.</p><p>among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>The report states that the mismatch between labor supply and demand in the United States has increased the risk of a negative feedback loop between \"wage inflation\" and \"inflation\" in the United States. U.S. inflation may exceed market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01776\">GF Securities</a>They believe that the current global \"high inflation\" may be a structural problem. The only major economies with CPI significantly higher than the 2011-2019 average are India and the United States. Global inflation in the second half of the year may exhibit four characteristics: after the base shift, the year-on-year PPI level in most economies around the world is expected to decline; With the upward slope of transportation costs such as sea freight constrained, imported inflationary pressures in some countries are expected to ease. The year-on-year CPI in the United States has shifted downward but not low, and inflationary pressures on goods have decreased but inflation on services has increased. The year-on-year CPI center of exporting countries may show varying degrees of upward movement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>It was mentioned that the easing of suppression of service consumption will increase inflationary pressure on the service sector, which accounts for more than 60% of US inflation.</p><p><b>03. Regarding economic policies and liquidity</b></p><p>Regarding US monetary policy, discussions in the third quarter and the implementation of QETaper at the end of the year or early next year have almost reached a consensus. The more obvious disagreement lies in the degree of normalization of monetary policy and its impact on liquidity.</p><p>Industrial Securities stated that in the medium to long term, the post-pandemic US government debt pressure has reached a record high, and Biden's 2022 fiscal budget has further exacerbated the US debt pressure. The significant increase in the dependence of US Treasury bonds on the Federal Reserve may mean that the Fed is \"irreversible\".</p><p>Guangfa<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>It is believed that US fiscal and monetary policy will shift from accommodative to neutral-loose. However, Europe's fiscal and monetary easing continues, and the recovery fund is expected to be launched in the third quarter, bringing incremental benefits to global liquidity and recovery.</p><p>Of course, some securities firms have expressed caution that the combination of Taper and the US TGA account shifting from releasing liquidity to withdrawing liquidity in the second half of the year, coupled with the passage of the US tax increase policy, may have a significant impact on liquidity.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>This indicates that overseas monetary and fiscal stimulus, which had been clearly excessive and even had a \"distorting effect\" in the early stages, still needs to be exited with difficulty, and the asset bubble frenzy may be nearing its end.</p><p><b>04. Regarding the Chinese economy</b></p><p>Views on Chinese economic securities firms are relatively consistent. Overall, the inertia of China's economic rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic is nearing its end, and economic growth may gradually return to a new platform. Structurally, the continued improvement in consumption and the continued recovery of manufacturing investment may become important growth drivers, while there is not much disagreement regarding the slowdown in the growth rates of exports and real estate investment.</p><p>Meanwhile, in terms of inflation, the PPI peaked in May, and the overall central level fell in the second half of the year. The CPI rose slightly in the second half of the year, but the overall consistency in moderation was also relatively strong.</p><p><b>05. China's economic policies and liquidity</b></p><p>Due to the obvious characteristics of \"loose monetary policy and tight credit\" in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, there are some differences in securities firms' expectations for economic policies and liquidity in the second half of the year. Overall, keeping a close eye on credit will be the main theme throughout the year. However, the period of the fastest decline in social financing growth has passed.</p><p>The main differences in monetary policy lie in the monetary policy stance, with differences between \"easy to loosen but difficult to tighten\" and \"easy to tighten but difficult to loosen\". In terms of reasons, the \"easy easing but difficult tightening\" is mainly due to the decline in economic growth and money demand, the resolution of existing debt for structural transformation, and the reduction in macroeconomic leverage pressure. The reasons for the \"easy tightening but difficult loosening\" include the unchanged trend of marginal tightening, continuing to cherish the window of opportunity to advance regulation and reform, the postponement of local government debt issuance, and the impact of overseas liquidity.</p><p>Industrial Securities also stated that the second half of the year may be a valuable window of opportunity to resolve the \"historical issues\" of structural transformation, and attention should be paid to the risk of rising credit risk. GF Securities stated that fiscal measures in the second half of the year will lead to a narrow contraction in liquidity. Furthermore, as a window of opportunity, structural reforms will accelerate in the second half of the year. Haitong Securities stated that stabilizing the macro leverage ratio throughout the year means that the more money is injected at the beginning, the less money may need to be injected later. Credit is \"not in a hurry\" in the first two months, but it may need to \"turn around\" later.</p><p>There are also disagreements regarding the expected acceleration of fiscal spending as local government bond issuance accelerates, as well as fiscal tightening.</p><p><b>06. Regarding asset allocation in the second half of the year</b></p><p>US Dollar US Treasury yields: Optimism is slightly divided!</p><p>The high proportion of people who are optimistic about the strengthening of the US dollar in US Treasury yields is mainly due to the fermentation and acceleration period of the Federal Reserve's Taper reaction. The disagreement lies in the narrowing recovery gap between Europe and the United States, the narrowing interest rate differential between Europe and the United States, which has hampered carry trades, while limiting the pressure on the RMB to depreciate.</p><p>US stocks: Fluctuating upwards!</p><p>There is little disagreement regarding the US stock market; the main concern is that profitability will be the main factor supporting it. However, attention should be paid to the sensitive timing of Taper and the short-term impact of Biden's tariff increases.</p><p>Gold: The upward trend has ended!</p><p>Gold is affected by interest rates and inflation, both of which are trend-driven factors, and will face downward pressure in the second half of the year. Unless driven by risk aversion.</p><p>Commodities: The upside potential is nearing its end!</p><p>The main reason is that monetary policy has returned to neutrality and the supply-demand gap has eased. The overall price may rise again around the fourth quarter, but the upward slope will not be as high as before. Looking at different commodities, the overall outlook for crude oil, energy, and chemicals is positive, and there is still room for growth. The supply-demand gap may narrow, but there are differences in the magnitude of the rise. Nonferrous metals have entered the mid-to-late stages of price increases due to pressure from industrial and monetary withdrawals; Ferrous metals are fluctuating due to the supply-demand gap and will continue to face upward pressure.</p><p>A-shares: Structural opportunities!</p><p>With expectations of a slowing economic cycle and a stable financial cycle, the stock market is likely to fluctuate. Valuation-driven growth will give way to profit-driven growth. Different securities firms have different views on structural opportunities, including gradually shifting their focus to some long-term growth sectors; Pay attention to the opportunities brought to the manufacturing industry by the slowdown in upstream prices (profit margins) and the advancement of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" (policy dividends); Focus on sectors with high short-term prosperity, medium-term core assets, and long-term high-quality growth; And pay attention to the recovery from sectors that benefited from the pandemic to sectors that were damaged by the pandemic. The main focus is on the disruptions to the domestic market caused by US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index.</p><p>Bonds: Strategic (allocation) promising!</p><p>Disagreements over bond assets stem primarily from disagreements over liquidity and future economic performance. Overall, the economy has entered a phase of steady decline, while inflation expectations are falling, which is beneficial to the performance of bond assets, while the supply side is also declining. The issuance of local government bonds and the handling of credit risk may cause disruptions.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105440789","content_text":"随着6月临近尾声，不少券商发布了下半年宏观和资产配置报告。从八大券商对下半年宏观经济的预测来看，整体方向相对一致，但结构上还是存在一些比较明显的分歧，故而对资产配置的建议也是不尽相同。\n01、关于全球经济\n随着今年发达国家（尤其是美国）开始主导全球的复苏以来，海外经济的复苏和流动性对国内经济的带动和资产配置带来更为重要的边际变量。大部分券商研究认同对下半年全球疫情控制保持谨慎乐观。全球复苏进入共振复苏阶段。不平衡情况将有所缓解。\n其中，兴业、中信证券表示复苏主线将转向服务消费：“美国商品消费由于财政刺激退坡叠加需求部分透支，增速将见顶回落，而服务消费由于疫情约束放开叠加缺口较大，高斜率复苏的确定性较强。可能带来两个影响：一是美国经济复苏对中国出口的拉动作用可能会下降；二是加剧美国劳动力供需错配问题，推升“工资通胀-通胀”相互负反馈的风险。”“美国供需缺口有望收敛，服务消费将接力商品消费成为主要支撑。”\n广发证券则认为欧美将进入全面资本为标志的过热期：“疫情对于美欧经济的约束或先后于Q3初、Q4初解除。下半年美欧或相继进入以全面资本开支为标志的经济过热期。To B端（生产端）的需求开始显著提升，将使得下半年全球贸易亮点将向中上游转移。”\n其中，申万宏源相对比较谨慎，认为全球疫情的缓和之路并不顺利。“印度、南美的变种病毒正在令全球防控形势再度复杂化，下半年全球服务消费恢复之路预计仍然崎岖；过度补贴退出之后，制造业就业的恢复也仍然任重道远。潜在产出永久下移的魔咒仍在持续。”\n02、关于全球通胀\n大部分券商对于通胀的看法相对一致，认同受到基数、疫情、物流和供需错位影响，物价快速上行。未来随着生产端的逐步恢复和需求端在财政补贴退坡后的支撑力度可能减弱，供需缺口有望在Q3后逐步收敛。同时基数效应弱化。年末美国整体通胀同比回落。\n其中兴业证券表示：美国劳动力供需错配，推升了美国“工资通胀”-“通胀”负反馈的风险。美国的通胀可能超市场预期。\n广发证券认为：当前全球“高通胀”可能是个结构性问题。CPI同比显著高于2011-2019年均值的主要经济体只有印度和美国。下半年全球通胀或有四点特征：基数切换后，全球多数经济体PPI同比中枢有望回落；海运等运输成本上行斜率受约束，部分国家输入型通胀压力有望缓和；美国CPI同比中枢下移但不低且商品通胀压力下降但服务通胀有所上升；出口国CPI同比中枢或将呈现不同程度的上移。\n海通证券提到：服务消费的压制缓解使得服务业的通胀压力会增大，服务业在美国通胀中占比在6成以上。\n03、关于经济政策和流动性\n在对于美国的货币政策方面，三季度讨论、年底或明年初开始实施QETaper几乎已经形成共识。而比较明显的分歧是在于货币政策正常化的程度和对流动性的影响。\n兴业证券表示：中长期来看，疫后美国政府债务压力创历史新高，拜登2022年财政预算又进一步加剧美国债务压力。美债对美联储的依赖程度大幅上升，或意味着联储“覆水难收”。\n广发、中信建投、中信证券、海通证券则认为美国财政货币政策将由宽松转为中性偏宽。但欧洲宽财政、宽货币仍在继续，复苏基金有望三季度落地为全球流动性和复苏带来增量。\n当然也有券商对于下半年Taper叠加美国TGA账户由释放流动性变为回笼流动性，同时美国提高税收政策通过，或对流动性产生比较明显的影响表示谨慎。申万宏源就表示：前期已明显过度甚至产生“扭曲效应”的海外货币财政刺激仍需艰难地走向退出，资产泡沫的狂欢或接近曲终人散。\n04、关于中国经济\n对于中国经济券商的看法相对比较一致。从整体来看，新冠疫情后中国经济跌深反弹的惯性接近尾声，经济增速或逐渐向新平台回归。结构上来看，消费持续改善和制造业投资延续复苏或成为重要增量看点，而出口和房地产投资的增速回落也没有太大分歧。\n同时通胀方面PPI高点5月触顶，下半年整体中枢回落，CPI下半年小幅上行但总体温和方面的一致性也比较强。\n05、关于中国的经济政策和流动性\n由于上半年尤其是二季度出现了比较明显的“宽货币、紧信用”的特征，下半年券商对于经济政策和流动性的预期也存在一些分歧。整体来看紧信用是全年主基调。但社融增速回落最快的阶段已过去。\n货币政策分歧则主要在于货币口径，有“易松难紧”和“易紧难松”之别。从原因上来看，“易松难紧”主要出于经济增速和货币需求回落、解决结构转型的存量债务、宏观杠杆压力减小等。而“易紧难松”的原因有边际从紧的趋势未变、继续珍惜时间窗口推进监管和改革、地方政府债务发行后置和海外流动性影响等。\n其中兴业证券还表示：下半年或将是解决结构转型“历史遗留问题”的宝贵时间窗口，需关注信用风险上升的风险。以及广发证券表示：下半年财政发力会带来狭义流动性收敛。此外作为窗口期，下半年结构性改革将会加快。海通证券则表示：全年要稳定宏观杠杆率，意味着前面放得越多，后面可能就要放更少，前两月信用“不急”，后面可能要“转弯”。\n财政随着地方债发行加速支出望所加快和财政收紧等方面也有分歧。\n06、关于下半年的大类资产配置\n美元美债利率：看好略有分歧！\n看好美元美债利率走强的比例偏高，主要是出于美联储Taper反应的发酵期和加速期。分歧在于欧美复苏差距变小、欧美利差收窄，使得套息交易受挫，同时人民币贬值压力有限。\n美股：震荡上行！\n对于美股的分歧不大，主要还是盈利将成为支持美股的主要因素。但应注意Taper敏感时点和拜登加税靴子落地带来的短期冲击。\n黄金：涨势结束！\n黄金受利率和通胀影响，两方面因素均为趋势性影响，而下半年均面临压制。除非有避险情绪推动。\n大宗商品：上行空间近尾声！\n主要是货币政策回归中性，供需缺口缓解。四季度左右或再度整体上扬，但上行斜率将不及此前。分品种来看，原油能化整体看好，仍有上行空间，供需缺口或将收敛，但上行幅度存在分歧；有色受工业和货币退出压力进入涨价中后期；黑色受供需缺口影响震荡，后续仍有上行压力。\nA股：结构性机会！\n经济周期走缓、金融周期平稳的预期下，股票市场大概率震荡。估值驱动将让位于盈利增长驱动。在结构性机会方面各个券商各有看法，包括将关注点逐步转向一些长期成长赛道；关注上游价格放缓（利润空间）及“十四五”规划推进（政策红利）带给制造业的机会；关注短期高景气度、中期核心资产、长期优质成长赛道；以及关注从疫情收益板块到疫情受损板块的复苏等。主要重视美债利率和美元指数对国内市场的扰动。\n债券：战略（配置）性看好！\n对债券资产的分歧主要是出于流动性和未来经济表现的分歧。整体来说经济步入稳步下滑阶段，同时通胀预期下滑，利好债券资产表现，同时供给端也在下降。地方债的发行和信用风险的处置可能带来扰动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126638399,"gmtCreate":1624557073711,"gmtModify":1703840365415,"author":{"id":"3586950313792724","authorId":"3586950313792724","name":"Xiaogoute","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586950313792724","authorIdStr":"3586950313792724"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126638399","repostId":"1199120523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199120523","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624541451,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199120523?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening: Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs! Technology stocks continue their strong performance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199120523","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月24日（周四），纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨91.1点，涨幅0.64%，报14362.8点；标普500指数开盘上涨22.36点，涨幅0.53%，报4264.20点；道琼斯指数开盘上涨182.35点，涨","content":"<p>On Thursday, June 24, the Nasdaq Composite Index opened 91.1 points higher, or 0.64%, at 14,362.8. The S&P 500 opened up 22.36 points, or 0.53%, at 4264.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 182.35 points, or 0.54%, at 34,056.59.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f1bc6c5ee7460a3506f35d137a3a29\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90f02b2081ef4cd205fc04be09117cd5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>XPeng Motors opened 0.8% higher after announcing that its highest public offering price in Hong Kong would be HK$180 or US$23.19 per share (equivalent to US$46.39 per ADS).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>It opened up more than 5%. At today's regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce, spokesperson Gao Feng stated that the Ministry of Commerce is working with relevant departments to accelerate the development of the used car market by removing restrictions on the transfer of used cars and facilitating used car transactions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>It rose more than 8% after its Alzheimer's disease treatment drug donanemab received breakthrough therapy certification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It opened up 0.51%. Microsoft's stock price hit a record high during trading on Wednesday, with a total market capitalization of $2 trillion. At 23:00 Beijing time tonight, Microsoft will release the new generation of Windows system, Win11. It is understood that the next generation of Windows will provide a variety of features designed for the \"post-pandemic world\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% in pre-market trading. Previously, the Tesla Model 3 was named the most produced car in the United States in 2021 by Cars.com, an American online car sales service.</p><p>Newly listed stocks, customer experience management platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CXM\">sprinkler</a>It rose more than 15%, and closed up 10% on its first day of trading yesterday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">luminaire</a>Shares rose more than 10%, indicating that its LiDAR technology will become standard equipment in Volvo's upcoming all-electric flagship car.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs! Technology stocks continue their strong performance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs! Technology stocks continue their strong performance\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, June 24, the Nasdaq Composite Index opened 91.1 points higher, or 0.64%, at 14,362.8. The S&P 500 opened up 22.36 points, or 0.53%, at 4264.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 182.35 points, or 0.54%, at 34,056.59.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f1bc6c5ee7460a3506f35d137a3a29\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90f02b2081ef4cd205fc04be09117cd5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>XPeng Motors opened 0.8% higher after announcing that its highest public offering price in Hong Kong would be HK$180 or US$23.19 per share (equivalent to US$46.39 per ADS).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>It opened up more than 5%. At today's regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce, spokesperson Gao Feng stated that the Ministry of Commerce is working with relevant departments to accelerate the development of the used car market by removing restrictions on the transfer of used cars and facilitating used car transactions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>It rose more than 8% after its Alzheimer's disease treatment drug donanemab received breakthrough therapy certification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It opened up 0.51%. Microsoft's stock price hit a record high during trading on Wednesday, with a total market capitalization of $2 trillion. At 23:00 Beijing time tonight, Microsoft will release the new generation of Windows system, Win11. It is understood that the next generation of Windows will provide a variety of features designed for the \"post-pandemic world\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% in pre-market trading. Previously, the Tesla Model 3 was named the most produced car in the United States in 2021 by Cars.com, an American online car sales service.</p><p>Newly listed stocks, customer experience management platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CXM\">sprinkler</a>It rose more than 15%, and closed up 10% on its first day of trading yesterday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">luminaire</a>Shares rose more than 10%, indicating that its LiDAR technology will become standard equipment in Volvo's upcoming all-electric flagship car.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199120523","content_text":"6月24日（周四），纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨91.1点，涨幅0.64%，报14362.8点；标普500指数开盘上涨22.36点，涨幅0.53%，报4264.20点；道琼斯指数开盘上涨182.35点，涨幅0.54%，报34056.59点。\n\n\n小鹏汽车开盘涨0.8%，小鹏汽车公布：香港公开发行的最高发行价为每股180港元或23.19美元(相等于每ADS 46.39美元)。\n优信开盘涨超5%。在今天商务部举行的例行新闻发布会上，新闻发言人高峰表示，商务部正会同有关部门，围绕取消二手车限迁政策、便利二手车交易等推动二手车市场加快发展。\n礼来开涨逾8%，其阿尔茨海默病治疗药物donanemab获美国食品药品监督管理局突破性疗法认证。\n微软开盘涨0.51%。微软股价周三盘中创历史新高，总市值达两万亿美元。北京时间今晚23:00，微软将发布全新一代Windows系统Win11。据悉，新一代Windows将提供多方面为“后疫情世界”设计的功能。\n特斯拉盘前涨超2%。此前特斯拉Model 3被美国在线汽车销售服务商Cars.com评为2021年美国制造最多的汽车。\n次新股、客户体验管理平台Sprinklr涨超15%，昨日上市首日收涨10%。\nLuminar涨超10%，其激光雷达技术将成为沃尔沃即将推出的全电动旗舰车的标准配备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}