To The Moon

This is the latest allocation of $500 into a personal portfolio of stocks with 10x potential over the next decade. I’ll allocate from the “Asymmetric Universe” of stocks. Today, that universe has 25 stocks that I’ve covered in spotlight articles, and the universe will grow in time. Not all stocks covered will receive an investment, and allocations may be made to the same stock multiple times. Here are the rules of allocation. Invest $500 in total new capital each month. If the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is 20% below its all-time high, this allocation will increase to $1,000 monthly. If the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite is down 30%, I’ll add $1,500, and so on. The Universe of Asymmetric Stoc

What I’m Watching This Week Earnings season is in full swing. It’s a big earnings week ahead, and I’m sending out the August 2026 stock buys before the market opens tomorrow, so I’m going to keep this short. The Week Ahead This week is when things get really interesting in the market. It’s not just big banks and tech, which have mostly done reporting. This week, we get down to high-growth companies that fit in the Asymmetric Investing wheelhouse. Here are five of the stocks I’m looking at. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ : The talk of the market in 2025, Palantir has slipped based on valuation concerns alone. If growth continues at a strong pace the stock could recover, but even a small deceleration or sign that vertically integrated AI compani

No investor has epitomized 2026 like Leopold Aschenbrenner. Through June, his $48 billion (at the time) hedge fund, Situational Awareness, was up 439% after fees, an incredible run by any measure. This morning, Situational Awareness blew up. What happened and what can we learn about leverage, buying dips, and investing today? That’s what I’m going to dig through today. Blowing Up In 2009, I was in MBA school and interned for a hedge fund in the Minneapolis area that did a little bit of everything. There was market making, high-frequency trading, options positions, and even leveraged bets on commodities. It was a whirlwind of a learning experience, and at the end, I sat down with the owner, who had been in hedge funds for ~30 years. We talked for over an hour, but one thing stuck out to me:

One of the most profitable companies in the world went free cash flow negative in the second quarter, and investors are worried. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.34% ) shares are down 20% from their high in May, and there’s good reason to ask some serious questions. No, the market isn’t worried about where Alphabet is going to get the $200+ billion it’ll spend on capex this year or the (maybe) $300 billion it’ll spend next year. There’s a great cash flow business to fund most of that, and debt can fill the rest of the gap. The market is worried that the return on Alphabet’s spending and the spending of every hyperscaler and neocloud will have low or no return at all. ~$1 trillion in spending this year, and even more next year, needs to generate a return. As

From biotech catalysts and consumer brand momentum to EV valuation debates, these three stocks highlight how investors are focusing on very different opportunities—and risks—across today's market. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ BPC-157 isn’t a done deal but it’s getting close. This could be another catalyst for $HIMS, the biggest position in the Asymmetric Portfolio. 2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ I don’t know what these are but I kind of want them. 3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ What multiple would you put on a company growing revenue at 0.5% annually with declining margins? Does 12x sales and 295x earnings sound fair?

If you're wondering why $Alphabet(GOOG)$ is down today, I wrote about exactly this moment a week ago. The market expected a delicate dance from Alphabet that involved a massive increase in capex AND the company remaining free cash flow positive (charts below). We got one (capex growth). Not the other (FCF). If operating cash flow doesn't fund the capex of the biggest, most successful business in the world, the entire AI buildout will be dependent on debt. And that's a very different risk proposition than funding it with cash flows. So, the market takes a "risk off" move even with a company like Alphabet. The next question is who blinks first? Or put another way, who cuts capex spending and gets rewarded by the market? Some manager (maybe Zuck, may

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud results are incredible, but the rest of the revenue was pretty ho-hum. Alphabet going negative FCF seems like a turning point in this buildout. I don't know if it's good or bad, but if they're willing to go into debt to win... I wouldn't want to be a competitor. 82% growth for Google Cloud is crazy, but we have crossed the critical FCF going negative. Seems like something. PS: What are your weaknesses as an investor? Create constraints around them. I am terrible at timing the market when I buy and my biggest mistake is selling a great company early. Solution: 1. Buy once per month 2. Default to "never sell" Keep it simple. Sentiment is correlated with a sto

The most entertaining outcome... $Oracle(ORCL)$ continues to nosedive, making it prohibitive to fund insane capex over the next 3 years. Without AI growth, Oracle's stock enters a downward spiral. The falling stock price forces Ellison to either liquidate some of his stake to fund the personal guarantee of Paramount's debt or let Paramount default and figure it out later. Paramount goes back up for auction in 2029/2030 after defaulting on its debt. How one of the most successful businessmen of all time went from a FCF machine to being beholden to debtholders is beyond me. This is a canary. If bond yields keep rising for ORCL and neoclouds it destroys the business model. $500 billion in RPO is dependent on being able to fund the project with debt a

Buybacks are one of the most underappreciated ways companies can generate value for shareholders. A well-executed buyback can rapidly reduce the denominator in earnings per share, but the timing and pace of the buyback are important. Most buybacks are done when stock prices are high and business is good. Effective buybacks are executed when valuations are low and before the market “re-rates” the stock (i.e., increases the multiple). If that’s when the buyback is done, it can be rocket fuel for a stock. Here are 4 stocks I own that need to announce large buybacks today, ahead of potential turnarounds in their businesses. $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ ( ▼ 0.58% ) $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ ( ▲ 0.03% )

The key question for all three: can earnings growth drive future upside while valuations expand? $GOOG, $DUOL, and $NFLX offer three different answers. 1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Analysts are expecting Alphabet's operating cash flow to nearly double over the next 2.5 years. 2. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Everyone has to learn Chinese if Kimi takes over or what? 3. $Netflix(NFLX)$ $NFLX was $86 when I posted this. Getting closer to a buy after this drop. At some point, Netflix will be an amazing buy. But at 38x FCF, I don't think a company growing revenue in the mid-teens is in "no-brainer" territory yet. PS： Investing Over-Simplified If you can explain how the stocks you own