To The Moon

The short-term count has changed. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ W4 setup is now invalid, which makes yesterday’s flush look more like W5.e than the start of a sustained rebound. From here, I’m watching for the 2nd/B-wave rally to keep pushing higher into the next bearish FVG resistance. 👀 That’s the area where I want to see bearish SMT divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ start showing up. If that signal develops, the plan is simple: 🚨 Let the bounce extend 🎯 Watch the FVG resistance ⚠️ Look for bearish SMT 📉 Then sell the rally The larger structure hasn’t changed. The bounce may have more room to run first, but the bigger path still points LOWER. 🔻 Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowi

The post FOMC pop didn’t have much follow through. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ managed only a shallow rebound before sellers stepped back in and pushed price sharply lower. That keeps the short term structure leaning toward another leg down rather than a clean bullish reversal. For now, I’m treating the current rebound as W4. If that count holds, the bounce should remain below today’s high before W5 brings another move lower. 🔻 The key levels are pretty clear: ⚠️ Above 7632: the immediate W4/W5 setup is invalidated. 🚦 Daily close above 7637: that would shift the setup into a more bullish posture. Until either level is reclaimed, I’m treating rallies as opportunities to sell rather than chasing strength. The next move matters more than the noise around the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The selloff has delivered the W5 leg lower, and now the setup is starting to look a little different. 👀 Bullish SMT against $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is giving the S&P 500 room for a corrective bounce into the FOMC. I’d expect the first move to stay fairly modest, with 7650–7700 as the initial zone to watch. But I’m not treating that bounce as a trend change. ⚠️ The bigger picture still looks vulnerable. If $SPX reaches that 7650–7700 area, I’d be watching closely for the relief move to run out of steam and sellers to step back in. So for now: 📈 W5 downside leg appears in place 🔄 Bullish SMT supports a corrective rebound 🎯 First bounce zone: 7650–7700 ⚠️ FOMC could provide the catalyst 📉 An

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ failed to print a fresh low today and stayed inside Friday’s range. That price action has me leaning toward a W4 triangle into FOMC. If that’s the count, we could see more chop before the next directional move. The key remains Friday’s high. As long as that level holds, I’m still looking for one final W5 lower. 🎯 W5 target zone: 7,560–7,530 Meanwhile, $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ delivered again. One of the members caught the short for +440% 💰 Friday close → SMT short setup Today’s open → W4/W5 short setup Both setups delivered. FOMC is coming, so I’m watching the structure and key levels rather than chasing the noise. 👀 When markets keep you watching, knowing when to switch off matters too. A st

$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is setting up for another potentially large leg lower. The bearish SMT from the June highs is still intact, a divergence that often shows up around major tops. Meanwhile, $SPX and $DJI are already starting to weaken. Now the question is whether Nasdaq becomes the next domino. 📉 My ABC model maps the larger downside path toward 26,800–26,600, where A = C. But first, price needs to lose the recent lows. That’s the trigger I’m watching. If those lows break, downside momentum could expand quickly. There’s another important piece here 👇 $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2612(NQmain)$ is still showing short-term relative strength, but $E-mini S&P 500 -

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Friday’s high is the line in the sand. 🔴 Stay below Friday’s high The bearish count remains valid, and I’m looking for W5 lower into FOMC. 🟢 Break above Friday’s high The decline starts looking more like a 3-wave move, which would favor a deeper retracement toward the 61.8% level. There’s another warning for bulls 👀 The bearish SMT at Friday’s high increases the odds of an early pullback Monday. My lean remains simple: W5 lower first. I’ll let price action decide what comes next. 🎯 The Fed meeting is coming, so I’m watching the level, not chasing the noise. When markets keep you watching, knowing when to switch off matters too. A strong U.S. jobs report has put rates back in focus, with this week’s CPI data set to be another ke

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is getting very close to the downside zone I’ve been watching. 🎯 7570–7550 remains the target. Until price actually reaches that area, I’m still treating rallies as opportunities to sell rather than chasing a reversal. After four straight down sessions, tomorrow’s CPI could make things interesting. 👀 A strong bounce on the data wouldn’t automatically change my bearish view. It could simply create one more bull trap before the next leg lower. If we get that bounce, I’ll be watching the fresh bearish FVG for rejection, especially while $SPX stays below the 50% retracement of W3. 📉 Below that level, the bearish structure remains intact. If buyers fail to produce a meaningful rebound, this consolidation could simply resolve lower a

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SELL SIGNAL TRIGGERED. 🚨 The Daily FVG support has officially failed, and the close below 7681 gives us the confirmation I was waiting for. That level was the line in the sand. Once 7681 broke, the bullish FVG flipped into an iFVG and the bearish setup became active. Now I’m looking for the downside to develop rather than trying to chase another push higher. 🎯 First measured-move target: 7570–7550 That’s the immediate zone I’m watching. But honestly, I’m more interested in what happens after we get there. If momentum continues to build, this could be much bigger than a simple pullback. I’m leaning toward this being the beginning of a larger BEARISH W3 DECLINE. 🐻 The key reference now is last week’s high. As long as price remain

Back in June, I was looking for one final W5 push higher before the larger cycle correction. We got it. Now the picture is changing. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is starting to reverse, while the bearish SMT with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ remains intact. More importantly, I can now count the advance in multiple ways that point to the same conclusion: The rally may be complete. That shifts my focus completely. I’m no longer looking for the next breakout. I’m watching for the reset. 🎯 Target zone: 7,200–6,900 📉 Potential correction: roughly 8–10% ⏳ Time frame: the next couple of months The interesting part is that this setup is developing as the broader market enters a much more uncertain September. Rising yields, inflation

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just printed the bearish SMT I’ve been waiting for. But I’m still not shorting blindly. The divergence is the warning.The daily close below 7681 is the confirmation. Today’s pullback also created a new bullish Daily FVG, which gives us a very clean line in the sand. If $SPX closes below 7681, that FVG flips into an iFVG and I’ll treat it as the trigger for the next move lower. That would change the structure from: bearish divergence → pullback → potential continuation to: bearish divergence → FVG failure → confirmed downside expansion. But there’s still a bullish path. If the FVG holds, sellers haven’t taken control yet. $SPX could still push back above last week’s high and sweep the highs before the larger reversal begins. So