To The Moon

"Incompetent management, rotten culture, zero moat. It’s a broken company." In December 2024, a former Intel engineer posted this blunt assessment on social media, urging everyone to stay far away from the stock. He had lived through Intel’s most turbulent years, watching the company burn tens of billions of dollars in cash flow on mediocre acquisitions and endless high-level infighting. He knew, far better than any Wall Street analyst, that Intel's core issue wasn't a lack of market demand. It was a failure of execution, rotten to the core. Fast-forward to today. Intel has just dropped a disastrous earnings report: hitting a hard ceiling on the supply side, facing severe substrate shortages, and suffering a tragic accident that halted production at a key factory. The stock plummeted nearl

Does Copying Warren Buffett Guarantee Success? ​If you lay out Warren Buffett’s portfolio track record over the past few decades, a brutal reality emerges: almost every single one of his most lucrative investments endured a punishing drawdown of 30% to 50%—or more. ​American Express (AmEx): When the Salad Oil Scandal erupted in 1964, Buffett bought in during the crisis. The stock tumbled another 50% after his entry, suffering a peak drawdown between 43% and 50%. ​The Washington Post: He built his position in mid-1973, right before the U.S. stock market crash. By late 1974, his paper value had shrunk by 25%, bottoming out at nearly a 40% loss. ​Wells Fargo: Buying contrarian during the 1989–1990 California real estate crisis, Buffett watched the stock drop another 50% immediately after buyi

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  

The lot is finally emptying out. Delivering 22,141 units over production isn't just a beat—it puts an end to the "unsold inventory sitting in parking lots" narrative that bears traded on all summer. The stock cheered with a clean +4.65% pop to $370.59.   My Personal Read: The Trap: Don’t confuse an inventory flush with an immediate earnings explosion. Clearing stock often means financing incentives and price trimming. Volume is back, but margins will write the next chapter. The Opportunity: TSLA is still down -17.60% YTD while the market is up double digits (+12.81%). That’s massive underperformance ripe for a vicious mean-reversion squeeze if Q4 guidance surprises to the upside.   How I’m Playing It: I’m letting momentum runners ride with a trailing stop just below $35

Here is my personal take on whats actually happening behind the scenes: The Classic Elon Playbook (Maximum Leverage): Whenever Musk publicly anchors to a sole supplier, the clock starts ticking. Confirming talks with TSMC isn't just curiosity; it’s ruthless leverage. It signals to Intel: Deliver top-tier yields and aggressive wafer pricing, or watch the volume walk.   TSMC Is the Unavoidable Tollbooth: Bulls are right on the money here. Whether it’s custom silicon for autonomous fleets, high-throughput satellite comms, or Terafab scale, advanced packaging (CoWoS) and sub-3nm volume still lead back to TSMC. In the AI hardware gold rush, TSMC owns the pickaxes.   Bears Have a Point, but Sentiment Rules: Yes, a conversation is not a signed purchase order. But in semiconduc

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  

First time beating the index

$SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$  

Tesla Beats Deliveries, Crashes 7.5%: The Anatomy of a Classic "Sell the Fact" Trap 📉⚡ Tesla just delivered a textbook lesson in market psychology. As you can see in Screenshot_20260703-184344.png, the company dropped 7.5% in a single session—marking its worst single-day performance in 11 months. The kicker? This massive plunge happened right after Q2 deliveries significantly beat consensus estimates. If you are scratching your head wondering how a massive operational win translates into a brutal sell-off, you are looking at the wrong metrics. The market has officially changed the rules of the game for Tesla, and volume numbers alone don't cut it anymore. 🔄 The Moving Goalposts: Volume vs. Margins For the longest time, the Tesla narrative was simple: How many cars can they ship? But as a m

The Great Rotation is Here: Are You Defending or Buying the Tech Dip? 🔄📉 We just witnessed a massive divergence in the markets. As shown in Screenshot_20260703-183832.png, the shift is aggressive: the Nasdaq 100 took a 1.73% hit, while the Dow just rocketed up nearly 590 points to hit a brand new record high.   What triggered this violent rotation? The jobs data. June nonfarm payrolls came in at a measly 57,000 jobs—a sharp miss. That weak number flipped a switch for institutional capital.   Here is exactly what I am seeing on the board: The AI Exodus: Capital is aggressively rotating out of the big AI capex winners, with semiconductors, optical networking names, and heavyweights like Meta all facing heavy selling pressure. The Flight to Value: The money is pouring stra