Micron's $1T "reclaim" is really a rematch of the same argument the market had in May — and the CXMT wildcard cuts both ways Worth remembering the context: Micron first crossed $1T back in May off UBS's 204% price-target hike to $1,625, built on a structural thesis — long-term agreements are turning DRAM from a spot-priced commodity into something closer to contracted, growth-multiple earnings. Tuesday's move (+4.92% MU, +9.01% SK Hynix, +5.76% SanDisk, SOXL +6.89%) is that same thesis getting a fresh catalyst: management extending the tightness call past 2027, UBS following with a through-cycle profitability reset. Here's the part that actually resolves your "who sets the price" question: SemiAnalysis's own supply-side model — the one most often cited to justify CXMT as the bear case — st
JPMorgan's memory call isn't a rotation story — it's a "the correction was wrong" story The framing matters here. This wasn't JPMorgan discovering memory as some new Nvidia-adjacent trade — it's JPMorgan's Jay Kwon calling the recent 25% memory correction a mistake, made on Monday, two trading days before Tuesday's bounce. His thesis has two legs: supply-demand shortage persists for two more years, and — the more interesting part — memory demand is broadening from GPU to CPU in a way he thinks the market has underpriced. That's a different claim than "AI cycle strength is spilling over." It's "the market already knew this conceptually but hasn't modeled the actual volume impact." That's why Tuesday's move (SK Hynix +4.7%, SanDisk +2.68%, Micron +0.87%, SOXL +2.31%) reads as a reset of Q3 e
14 August — three separate stories converging into one theme: disinflation, AI infrastructure spend, and a memory sector re-rating are all running at once The macro backdrop is calm: Wednesday's CPI print landed exactly on consensus, and Asian markets have now ridden that into a fourth straight week of gains, with the Kospi (a proxy for the AI supply chain) up more than 14% on the week as Samsung and SK Hynix ran hard. That's the read-through worth watching at the open — Asia often leads where US chip and memory names go next. On the memory side, SanDisk's 15%+ Investor Day pop this week pulled the whole complex along — Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix all caught a bid. If that momentum holds into today's session, MU and WDC are the names to watch for follow-through, not just SNDK. The ot
--- SanDisk's 13.67% pop wasn't a beat-and-raise — it was a re-rating on three years of guidance that shouldn't even be possible in memory That's the part worth sitting with. NAND has always been a boom-bust commodity business — pricing power evaporates the moment supply catches up. Nobody guides three years out in this industry because nobody's ever been able to. SanDisk just did anyway: mid-to-high-teens revenue growth through FY2028–30, ~80% adjusted gross margins, ~75% operating margins, ~50% free cash flow margins, and a commitment to return all excess cash to shareholders. Management's argument for why this time is different: demand is outrunning supply into 2028, with the NAND market seen crossing $300B this year and $500B by 2027 on AI-driven storage demand — plus a technology stor
Three earnings prints, one thesis: AI compute is getting monetized three different ways — and the market's rewarding all of them Nebius jumped 34% on $582M in revenue, up 454% y/y, with adjusted net loss narrowing 64% to $33.2M — a company scaling GPU-cloud revenue while visibly closing the gap to profitability. That's the "growth efficiency" trade. CoreWeave rose 19% despite missing revenue consensus ($2.58B vs. ~$2.61B expected) — because the backlog is the real story. $104B contracted as of June 30, and that's *before* another $25B+ signed in the first weeks of Q3, pushing total forward commitments to roughly $129B. The adjusted EPS loss of $1.03 also beat the Street's -$1.24 estimate. Investors aren't pricing this quarter — they're pricing 2028. Riot's +4.33% came off a structurally di
Q2 13F season: Berkshire just ended a 14-quarter selling streak — is "smart money" turning bullish again? Berkshire disclosed roughly $19.8bn in net equity purchases for Q2 — its first net-buying quarter since Q4 2022. The headline piece: a $10bn direct private placement into Alphabet, which now sits among Berkshire's top five holdings alongside Apple, American Express, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola. Apple still anchors the book at ~$58bn, roughly 22% of the portfolio. Cash didn't get torched to do it — reserves dipped from ~$397bn to ~$365bn, still a war chest by any normal standard. Layer in the $6.8bn all-cash acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison and $4.5bn in buybacks (Berkshire's biggest in five years), and this reads less like caution easing and more like Greg Abel — now a ful
July CPI: no surprises, but the market still found something to chew on Headline landed at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Core came in at 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the slowest annual core print since February. Shelter and food each added 0.1%; energy was the drag, down on the month even as gasoline is still running +24.6% y/y. The "in-line" read is actually the story: it's the second straight month of cooling core inflation, which is why traders leaned harder into a September hold rather than a hike. Future now price meaningfully lower hike odds than a week ago — the fourth straight downward revision. Equities shrugged it off calmly (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%), but gold's +2% move to $4,471 says someone's still hedging. That's the tension: a "boring" CPI print that both confirms disinflation *and
July CPI: no surprises, but the market still found something to chew on Headline landed at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Core came in at 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the slowest annual core print since February. Shelter and food each added 0.1%; energy was the drag, down on the month even as gasoline is still running +24.6% y/y. The "in-line" read is actually the story: it's the second straight month of cooling core inflation, which is why traders leaned harder into a September hold rather than a hike. Future now price meaningfully lower hike odds than a week ago — the fourth straight downward revision. Equities shrugged it off calmly (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%), but gold's +2% move to $4,471 says someone's still hedging. That's the tension: a "boring" CPI print that both confirms disinflation *and