Profile - To The Moon

步步高升668

Posts · 1Posts · 1
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- 步步高升668步步高升668
  ·08-16
  R/s wow I think the the e
  Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion of off-balance sheet hidden liabilities raises concerns among bond investors
  随着英伟达宣布5000亿美元AI融资合作，债券市场对AI公司约700亿美元表外债务的担忧骤然升温。这一结构允许英伟达、博通等芯片巨头为客户债务兜底，却无需将负债计入自身账表。多家机构警告这是顺周期的金融工程，一旦行业下行将集中引爆风险。
  Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion of off-balance sheet hidden liabilities raises concerns among bond investors
  94 Comment
  1
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4234946816071132","uuid":"4234946816071132","gmtCreate":1771842794761,"gmtModify":1786072039066,"name":"步步高升668","pinyin":"bbgs668bubugaosheng668","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":1,"tweetSize":1,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.07.17","exceedPercentage":"80.62%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.05","exceedPercentage":"93.23%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":597302946882416,"gmtCreate":1786852407079,"gmtModify":1786853301902,"author":{"id":"4234946816071132","authorId":"4234946816071132","name":"步步高升668","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4234946816071132","idStr":"4234946816071132"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"R/s wow I think the the e","listText":"R/s wow I think the the e","text":"R/s wow I think the the e","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/597302946882416","repostId":"2659179770","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659179770","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786842516,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2659179770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-08-16 09:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion of off-balance sheet hidden liabilities raises concerns among bond investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659179770","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着英伟达宣布5000亿美元AI融资合作，债券市场对AI公司约700亿美元表外债务的担忧骤然升温。这一结构允许英伟达、博通等芯片巨头为客户债务兜底，却无需将负债计入自身账表。多家机构警告这是顺周期的金融工程，一旦行业下行将集中引爆风险。","content":"<p><html><body>The AI chip financing boom has spawned a new off-balance sheet guarantee structure that has reached $70 billion, and the bond market is struggling with how to price this hidden risk.</p><p>As Bloomberg reported on Aug. 15, just before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The announcement of the $500 billion financing partnership comes after bond investors have begun to feel uneasy about the approximately $70 billion of \"ghost liabilities\" off the balance sheets of major AI companies. These contingent liabilities are usually unobtrusive, but they may suddenly be cashed out at the worst of times.</p><p>The carrier of these liabilities is a type called \"<strong>Residual Value Guarantee</strong>\"(Residual Value Guarantee, RVG), which may amount up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>Dollars. The essence of this mechanism is that Nvidia uses its strong credit rating to endorse customers' financing and help customers lower their borrowing costs.</p><p><h2>How this structure works</h2>The typical structure is divided into three layers: a special purpose carrier (SPV) borrows money to buy chips, and the borrowing is supported by the cash flow of contracts signed by companies using the technology; If the company ceases to make payments, the asset will be re-leased or sold to repay the remaining debt; If there is still a shortfall, the \"guarantor\" will make up the shortfall.</p><p><ol><li>A special purpose carrier (SPV) borrows money to buy chips;</li><li>The borrowing is supported by the contractual cash flow of an AI company;</li><li>If the AI company stops paying, the chip is subleased or sold to repay the debt;</li><li>If there is still a gap,<strong>The guarantor (chip manufacturer) shall make up the difference</strong>。</li></ol>This is the \"residual value guarantee\"-the chip seller acts as the last person.</p><p>To Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For this kind of chip giant, this structure is a \"cost-effective deal\": it helps customers reduce financing costs and expand sales, and does not record any debts on their books.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>In its document, it stated directly: \"The probability of payment by the RVG guarantor is not high and therefore no liability has been recorded to date.\"</p><p>Although the \"probability is not high\", it is increasingly difficult to convince the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>This logic is extended to the field of chip financing. In the project codenamed \"Big Sky\", Broadcom guaranteed a $35 billion debt transaction — Apollo Global Management and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Investors such as the Group contributed to the purchase of customized AI chips and then leased them to Anthropic for use. This arrangement gives senior debt an investment grade rating and the cost of funding decreases.</p><p>Unlike data center deals that span decades, chip financing cycles are shorter and typically amortized in about five years to match the pace of rapid depreciation of technology. This means that guarantee exposure narrows rapidly over time, giving lenders a relatively clear exit horizon.</p><p><h2>Nvidia enters the market, the scale may jump again</h2>Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, posted on the X platform that the company may provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for related opportunities, \"case-by-case evaluation\".</p><p>\"Our role is to help unlock a large pool of independent capital while maintaining disciplined exposure,\" he wrote.</p><p>Nvidia said that the cooperation aims to introduce external capital and alleviate the problem of \"revolving financing\"-that is, the closed-loop dilemma of AI companies contributing to each other's products. The six U.S. investment institutions involved in the $500 billion financing include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。</p><p>Broadcom's AI XPV platform is an extension of the \"Big Sky\" deal, which Bank of America strategists estimate could accumulate $370 billion in senior debt by mid-2029. This means that the potential size of off-balance sheet guarantees goes far beyond that.</p><p><h2>Ratings agencies have issued warnings</h2>Ratings agencies are not indifferent to this.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>\"The main risk is that such transactions will occur intensively in the short term,\" wrote a note. \"We believe that a substantial increase in Broadcom's potential obligations, even if the leverage ratio of its existing debt remains low, will limit Broadcom's financial flexibility and may put a strain on the company's credit profile.\"</p><p>Moody's also pointed out that Broadcom's guarantee for third-party leases \"partially offset its strong business advantage\", but more guarantees will have a negative impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating characterized the residual value support provided by Broadcom as \"contingent debt obligation\" and said that this part would be included in the adjusted debt calculation.</p><p>Under U.S. Accounting Standards, businesses typically only include contingent liabilities in their balance sheets when the loss is \"probable and can be reasonably estimated\", otherwise they only need to be disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. This is the institutional basis on which these liabilities are kept off the books.</p><p><h2>Investors: Financial engineering is covering up real risks</h2>Bond investors' concerns focus on one point: When will these off-balance sheet contingent liabilities become true on-balance sheet losses?</p><p>Mariya Entina, portfolio manager at DoubleLine, bluntly said:</p><p><strong>It's like exploiting a loophole in the system and trying to get preferential treatment from rating agencies to get the highest possible rating…We are entering the age of financial engineering. This is one of my concerns: When you engage in financial engineering, you are covering up financial reality.</strong></p><p>CreditSights analysts compared Nvidia's residual support to \"selling a put\" in their report.</p><p>\"This is pro-cyclical and will exacerbate the boom-bust potential,\" they wrote. \"During a boom, this guarantee costs little; But in a severe, sharp downturn, it becomes most critical when customers default and the market value of hardware falls.\"</p><p>\"This is not your ordinary investment-grade credit underwriting,\" said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW. \"It's a lot more complicated than that. Given the off-balance sheet nature, the tail risk is on the high side.\"</p><p><h2>Others believe that worry is excessive</h2>Not everyone takes a pessimistic position.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector and corporate credit at Investors, believes that triggering residual support requires extreme conditions: \"You have to see the growth rate of token usage fall off a cliff, and that's not what we are seeing at all.\"</p><p>He also noted that these companies \"are not trying to hide contingent liabilities, but are trying to finance them.\"</p><p>The logic of the proponents is: chip demand will continue to exceed supply for years to come; The debt structure is designed to be fully amortized over time, with decreasing potential costs backed by residual values; Technology risk ultimately falls on big tech companies that have enough cash to sustain losses.</p><p>But the rebuttal from critics is equally powerful: it is when the industry goes down that these guarantees are triggered, and that is precisely when chipmakers' own earnings are under pressure. Guarantee and risk are highly synchronized cyclically, which is the problem.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion of off-balance sheet hidden liabilities raises concerns among bond investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion of off-balance sheet hidden liabilities raises concerns among bond investors\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-08-16 09:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>The AI chip financing boom has spawned a new off-balance sheet guarantee structure that has reached $70 billion, and the bond market is struggling with how to price this hidden risk.</p><p>As Bloomberg reported on Aug. 15, just before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The announcement of the $500 billion financing partnership comes after bond investors have begun to feel uneasy about the approximately $70 billion of \"ghost liabilities\" off the balance sheets of major AI companies. These contingent liabilities are usually unobtrusive, but they may suddenly be cashed out at the worst of times.</p><p>The carrier of these liabilities is a type called \"<strong>Residual Value Guarantee</strong>\"(Residual Value Guarantee, RVG), which may amount up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>Dollars. The essence of this mechanism is that Nvidia uses its strong credit rating to endorse customers' financing and help customers lower their borrowing costs.</p><p><h2>How this structure works</h2>The typical structure is divided into three layers: a special purpose carrier (SPV) borrows money to buy chips, and the borrowing is supported by the cash flow of contracts signed by companies using the technology; If the company ceases to make payments, the asset will be re-leased or sold to repay the remaining debt; If there is still a shortfall, the \"guarantor\" will make up the shortfall.</p><p><ol><li>A special purpose carrier (SPV) borrows money to buy chips;</li><li>The borrowing is supported by the contractual cash flow of an AI company;</li><li>If the AI company stops paying, the chip is subleased or sold to repay the debt;</li><li>If there is still a gap,<strong>The guarantor (chip manufacturer) shall make up the difference</strong>。</li></ol>This is the \"residual value guarantee\"-the chip seller acts as the last person.</p><p>To Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For this kind of chip giant, this structure is a \"cost-effective deal\": it helps customers reduce financing costs and expand sales, and does not record any debts on their books.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>In its document, it stated directly: \"The probability of payment by the RVG guarantor is not high and therefore no liability has been recorded to date.\"</p><p>Although the \"probability is not high\", it is increasingly difficult to convince the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>This logic is extended to the field of chip financing. In the project codenamed \"Big Sky\", Broadcom guaranteed a $35 billion debt transaction — Apollo Global Management and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Investors such as the Group contributed to the purchase of customized AI chips and then leased them to Anthropic for use. This arrangement gives senior debt an investment grade rating and the cost of funding decreases.</p><p>Unlike data center deals that span decades, chip financing cycles are shorter and typically amortized in about five years to match the pace of rapid depreciation of technology. This means that guarantee exposure narrows rapidly over time, giving lenders a relatively clear exit horizon.</p><p><h2>Nvidia enters the market, the scale may jump again</h2>Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, posted on the X platform that the company may provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for related opportunities, \"case-by-case evaluation\".</p><p>\"Our role is to help unlock a large pool of independent capital while maintaining disciplined exposure,\" he wrote.</p><p>Nvidia said that the cooperation aims to introduce external capital and alleviate the problem of \"revolving financing\"-that is, the closed-loop dilemma of AI companies contributing to each other's products. The six U.S. investment institutions involved in the $500 billion financing include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。</p><p>Broadcom's AI XPV platform is an extension of the \"Big Sky\" deal, which Bank of America strategists estimate could accumulate $370 billion in senior debt by mid-2029. This means that the potential size of off-balance sheet guarantees goes far beyond that.</p><p><h2>Ratings agencies have issued warnings</h2>Ratings agencies are not indifferent to this.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>\"The main risk is that such transactions will occur intensively in the short term,\" wrote a note. \"We believe that a substantial increase in Broadcom's potential obligations, even if the leverage ratio of its existing debt remains low, will limit Broadcom's financial flexibility and may put a strain on the company's credit profile.\"</p><p>Moody's also pointed out that Broadcom's guarantee for third-party leases \"partially offset its strong business advantage\", but more guarantees will have a negative impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating characterized the residual value support provided by Broadcom as \"contingent debt obligation\" and said that this part would be included in the adjusted debt calculation.</p><p>Under U.S. Accounting Standards, businesses typically only include contingent liabilities in their balance sheets when the loss is \"probable and can be reasonably estimated\", otherwise they only need to be disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. This is the institutional basis on which these liabilities are kept off the books.</p><p><h2>Investors: Financial engineering is covering up real risks</h2>Bond investors' concerns focus on one point: When will these off-balance sheet contingent liabilities become true on-balance sheet losses?</p><p>Mariya Entina, portfolio manager at DoubleLine, bluntly said:</p><p><strong>It's like exploiting a loophole in the system and trying to get preferential treatment from rating agencies to get the highest possible rating…We are entering the age of financial engineering. This is one of my concerns: When you engage in financial engineering, you are covering up financial reality.</strong></p><p>CreditSights analysts compared Nvidia's residual support to \"selling a put\" in their report.</p><p>\"This is pro-cyclical and will exacerbate the boom-bust potential,\" they wrote. \"During a boom, this guarantee costs little; But in a severe, sharp downturn, it becomes most critical when customers default and the market value of hardware falls.\"</p><p>\"This is not your ordinary investment-grade credit underwriting,\" said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW. \"It's a lot more complicated than that. Given the off-balance sheet nature, the tail risk is on the high side.\"</p><p><h2>Others believe that worry is excessive</h2>Not everyone takes a pessimistic position.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector and corporate credit at Investors, believes that triggering residual support requires extreme conditions: \"You have to see the growth rate of token usage fall off a cliff, and that's not what we are seeing at all.\"</p><p>He also noted that these companies \"are not trying to hide contingent liabilities, but are trying to finance them.\"</p><p>The logic of the proponents is: chip demand will continue to exceed supply for years to come; The debt structure is designed to be fully amortized over time, with decreasing potential costs backed by residual values; Technology risk ultimately falls on big tech companies that have enough cash to sustain losses.</p><p>But the rebuttal from critics is equally powerful: it is when the industry goes down that these guarantees are triggered, and that is precisely when chipmakers' own earnings are under pressure. Guarantee and risk are highly synchronized cyclically, which is the problem.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","BNDW":"Vanguard Total World Bond ETF","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779518","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659179770","content_text":"AI芯片融资热潮催生了一种新型表外担保结构，规模已达700亿美元，债券市场正在为如何给这笔隐性风险定价而苦恼。\n据彭博8月15日报道，就在英伟达宣布5000亿美元融资合作之前，债券投资者已开始对主要AI公司资产负债表之外约700亿美元的\"幽灵负债\"感到不安。这些或有负债平时不显山露水，却可能在最糟糕的时刻突然兑现。\n这些负债的载体，是一种名为\"剩余价值担保\"（Residual Value Guarantee，RVG）的结构性安排，金额可能高达数百亿美元。这一机制的本质是：英伟达用自身强大的信用评级为客户的融资背书，帮助客户压低借贷成本。\n这套结构如何运作\n典型结构分三层：一个特殊目的载体（SPV）借钱购买芯片，借款由使用该技术的公司所签合同现金流作为支撑；若该公司停止付款，资产将被再次租赁或出售以偿还剩余债务；若仍有缺口，则由\"担保方\"补足差额。\n\n一个特殊目的载体（SPV）借钱买芯片；\n借款由某AI公司的使用合同现金流作为支撑；\n若该AI公司停止付款，芯片被转租或出售偿债；\n若仍有缺口，由担保方（芯片厂商）补足差额。\n\n这就是\"剩余价值担保\"——芯片卖家充当了最后兜底人。\n对英伟达、博通这类芯片巨头而言，这套结构是一笔\"划算的买卖\"：帮客户降低融资成本、扩大销售，自身不在账面上记录任何债务。Meta在其文件中对此直接表述：\"RVG担保方付款概率不高，因此迄今未记录任何负债。\"\n虽然\"概率不高\"，但越来越难以让市场信服。\n博通则将这一逻辑延伸至芯片融资领域。在代号\"Big Sky\"的项目中，博通为一笔350亿美元的债务交易提供担保——Apollo全球管理和黑石集团等投资者出资购买定制AI芯片，再租赁给Anthropic使用。这一安排使高级债务获得了投资级评级，融资成本随之下降。\n与跨越数十年的数据中心交易不同，芯片融资周期更短，通常约五年摊销完毕，以匹配技术快速折旧的节奏。这意味着担保敞口随时间快速收窄，给了贷款方一个相对清晰的退出视野。\n英伟达入场，规模或再跃升\n英伟达CEO Jensen Huang在X平台发文称，公司可能为相关机会提供最高25%的残值支持机制，\"逐案评估\"。\n\"我们的角色是帮助释放一大批独立资本，同时保持有纪律的风险敞口，\"他写道。\n英伟达表示，此次合作旨在引入外部资本，缓解\"循环融资\"问题——即AI公司相互出资购买彼此产品的闭环困境。参与这笔5000亿美元融资的六家美国投资机构包括贝莱德和高盛。\n博通的AI XPV平台是\"Big Sky\"交易的延伸，据美国银行策略师估算，该平台到2029年中期可能累积3700亿美元的高级债务。这意味着表外担保的潜在规模远不止于此。\n评级机构已发出警告\n评级机构对此并非无动于衷。\n穆迪在一份报告中写道：\"主要风险在于此类交易在短期内密集发生。\"\"我们认为，博通或有义务的大幅增加，即便其现有债务的杠杆率保持较低水平，也将限制博通的财务灵活性，并可能对公司信用状况形成压制。\"\n穆迪同时指出，博通对第三方租赁的担保\"部分抵消了强劲的业务优势\"，但更多担保将带来负面影响。\n标普全球评级则将博通提供的残值支持定性为\"或有债务类义务\"，并表示将把这部分纳入调整后的债务计算。\n根据美国会计准则，企业通常仅在损失\"可能发生且可合理估计\"时才将或有负债计入资产负债表，否则只需在财务报表附注中披露。这正是这批负债得以游离于账表之外的制度基础。\n投资者：金融工程在掩盖真实风险\n债券投资者的担忧集中在一点：这些表外或有负债，究竟何时会变成表内真实损失？\nDoubleLine投资组合经理Mariya Entina直言：\n\n这就像在钻系统的空子，试图从评级机构那里获得优待，以拿到尽可能高的评级……我们正在进入金融工程的时代。这是我的担忧之一：当你搞金融工程，你就是在掩盖财务现实。\n\nCreditSights分析师在报告中将英伟达的残值支持比作\"卖出一个看跌期权\"。\n\"这是顺周期的，会加剧繁荣-萧条的潜力，\"他们写道。\"在繁荣阶段，这个担保几乎没有成本；但在严重的急剧下行中，当客户违约、硬件市值下跌时，它就变得最为关键。\"\nTCW全球信贷联席主管Brian Gelfand表示：\"这不是普通的投资级信贷承销。\"\"它远比那复杂得多。鉴于表外性质，尾部风险是偏高的。\"\n也有人认为担忧过度\n并非所有人都持悲观立场。\nJanus Henderson Investors全球多板块及企业信贷主管John Lloyd认为，触发残值支持需要极端条件：\"你必须看到代币使用量的增长率断崖式下跌，而这根本不是我们正在看到的情况。\"\n他同时指出，这些公司\"并非试图隐藏或有负债，而是试图为其融资\"。\n支持者的逻辑是：芯片需求将在未来数年持续超过供给；债务结构设计为随时间全额摊销，残值支持的潜在成本也随之递减；技术风险最终落在有足够现金承受损失的大型科技公司身上。\n但批评者的反驳同样有力：正是在行业下行时，这些担保才会被触发，而那恰恰也是芯片制造商自身盈利承压的时刻。担保与风险在周期上高度同步，这才是问题所在。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHAT":1.5,"QTOC":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"BNDW":1.5,"VTHR":1.5,"AGIX":1.5,"AIPO":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}