To The Moon

AMD fell as much as 7% after hours, while SpaceX dropped about 6%. The earnings reports were not bad. The problem was that neither stock had been priced for a normal beat. AMD came into earnings with expectations set too high. SpaceX is simply spending money too fast. AMD: The Surprise Had Already Been Priced In AMD reported second-quarter revenue of $11.54 billion, up 50% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $1.66. The company also guided for roughly $13 billion in third-quarter revenue. Data center revenue reached $6.72 billion, up 107%, as both EPYC CPUs and Instinct accelerators continued to ramp. Put these numbers on almost any other semiconductor company, and investors would have very little to complain about. AMD still got hit after hours. The first reason was simple: the stock had

The most important signal today was not the Nasdaq rising roughly 2%. It was money moving back into the entire AI supply chain. With $苹果(AAPL)$ as the only exception, the Magnificent Seven rallied almost across the board. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$gained roughly 6%, $微软(MSFT)$ and $谷歌(GOOG)$nearly 5%, Amazon 4.6%, Tesla 3.5%, and Nvidia around 3%. Amazon’s market capitalization also crossed $3 trillion for the first time. The rally then spread upstream. $Applied Optoelectronics Inc.(AAOI)$surged ro

These four earnings reports did not prove that the storage cycle is ending. If anything, they confirmed the opposite: AI data-center orders remain strong, storage prices are still rising, and supply remains tight. What has changed is the market’s scoring system. Previously, revenue growth and record profits were enough to push a stock higher. Now, even the strongest results in a company’s history can trigger a selloff if they fail to beat already-extreme consensus expectations. That is also how I view the upcoming earnings report from $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ The results will probably be very strong. The problem is that “very strong” may no longer be enough. CompanyActual ResultsVersus ExpectationsMy View

Storage stocks finally stopped falling. $闪迪(SNDK)$surged approximately 26%, $美光科技(MU)$gained 18.4%, $西部数据(WDC)$ rose 15.4%, and $希捷科技(STX)$ climbed 11.4%. Microsoft’s earnings and Amazon’s accelerating AWS growth restored confidence in the AI infrastructure trade. Oversold conditions and short covering then transformed that confidence into an explosive rally. It was an incredible session. But one giant green candle is not enough to confirm a reversal. Samsung Proved the Memory Boom Is Still Real Samsung delivered one of the strongest memory earnings reports of t

This earnings season made one thing very clear: Wall Street is not turning bearish on AI. It is simply becoming much more selective about who deserves to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on it. Microsoft surged nearly 16%. Meta fell roughly 8%. Amazon delivered an enormous earnings beat, but the quality of that beat was more complicated than the headline suggested. All three companies are spending aggressively on AI. The difference is how quickly that spending is turning into revenue and cash flow. Microsoft Proved AI Can Generate Cash $Microsoft(MSFT)$ delivered the cleanest answer. Quarterly revenue reached $90 billion, Azure grew 43%, and management expects cloud growth to accelerate to approximately 45% next quarter. The c

Today was a macro-driven selloff, not the end of the AI trade. The Dow fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 lost 1.5%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.7%. Oil surged back toward $90, the Fed delivered a hawkish hold, and crowded semiconductor positions faced another round of forced selling. But after the close, Microsoft and Meta confirmed something far more important: the AI investment cycle is not slowing down. If anything, it is still accelerating. The Fed Held Rates, but the Message Was Hawkish The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote was 9–3, with three policymakers calling for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. That was not a normal pause. The Fed is still worried about inflation, while the market has started pricing in a real possibility of another hike. At the same time,

After the U.S. market closed, $希捷科技(STX)$ delivered a major earnings beat that showed AI storage demand remains strong. Just a few hours later, $SK海力士(SKHY)$reported record results that still fell short of expectations, sending a very different message: strong demand alone is no longer enough. Here is the main takeaway: The fundamentals of the storage industry have not suddenly reversed, but the way the market values the sector has changed. Previously, rising prices and growing orders were enough to lift the entire group. Now companies must beat expectations by a wide margin while also convincing investors that future capacity expansion will not create another supply glut. S

Monday’s market looked completely contradictory. The United States paused its strikes on Iran, Brent crude briefly fell below $88, and oil dropped more than 8% in a single session. Normally, falling oil prices should ease inflation fears and support growth stocks. Instead, AI hardware was crushed. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ closed down about 11% after falling more than 13% intraday. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ lost roughly 5%, while $Western Digital(WDC)$ and $Seagate Technology(STX)$ declined around 4%. $Micron Technology(MU)$ was down more than 7% at

Today, global memory stocks finally staged a meaningful rebound. It felt like weeks of pent-up pressure were finally released. South Korea’s KOSPI rose roughly 3.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained about 3.3%. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Kioxia $KIOXIA HLDGS CORP(KXIAY)$ all rallied. Japan was closed yesterday, and Kioxia came back today with a 17% surge—nearly brought me to tears.[Cool][Smart][Sly] In U.S. premarket trading, SNDK, MU, WDC, and STX were also all higher. Asia-Pacific market performance There was also a fundamental catalyst today: South Korea’s exports during the first 20 days of July rose 52.3% year over year, with semiconductor exports surging 180.6%. At the very least, this confirms that memory shipments have

Hi everyone. Today I want to share a special analysis of the memory sector. Let me start with the conclusion: the most violent phase of forced deleveraging may be close to ending, but that does not mean the correction is over. Memory fundamentals remain strong, while price action and positioning have yet to confirm a genuine reversal. 1. Fundamentals: The thesis remains intact, but expectations got too far ahead The latest rally began after SanDisk’s earnings-driven rerating in late April. Kioxia, SK hynix, Micron and SanDisk all moved sharply higher. Fundamentals started the rally, but Momentum-driven capital eventually took over. This was not a purely speculative move. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ reported quarterly revenue of $5.95 bil