To The Moon

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling. For me, the bond market is the key signal. If yields continue to ease, that could support valuations and give growth stocks more room to run—even with the Fed still sounding relatively hawkish.

Interesting disconnect: Arc gets major institutional names involved, yet the stock still sells off. That suggests the market may be demanding more than partnerships — actual adoption, transaction growth and earnings diversification could be the next proof points.

I’m watching C — higher for longer. Even if we don’t see another hike soon, rates staying elevated can still put pressure on valuations and keep volatility high. For me, the key is whether inflation cools enough to give the Fed room to ease without reigniting price pressures.

The number that caught my attention today: Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said memory prices have surged 5–7×. That sounds incredibly bullish for memory makers like $MU, $SNDK and $SK Hynix — and the market reacted accordingly: 📈 MU +5.50% 📈 SNDK +6.21% 📈 SK Hynix +4.64% 📈 INTC +7.67% But there’s another side to this story. Higher memory prices mean pricing power and potentially stronger margins for suppliers. But for PC, smartphone and other device makers, memory is becoming a much bigger input cost. Reuters reports smaller manufacturers are already struggling to secure supply, with the shortage expected to persist into 2027.  So I’m looking at the 500% figure two ways: 🟢 Bull case: supply is tight enough to give memory manufacturers exceptional pricing power. 🔴 Warning: if memory becomes too expe

The AI slowdown debate just got a little harder to ignore. Jensen Huang says Nvidia expects to sell 2× as many chips next year as this year. That’s a huge statement — but it’s still a forecast, not a book of signed orders.  And the market clearly noticed: 🚀 AMD +6.36% 🔥 Marvell +4.81% 🟢 Nvidia +2.54% ⚡ Broadcom +2.29% The bigger signal for me is what happens beyond Nvidia. More AI compute means more demand for networking, custom silicon, memory and data-centre infrastructure. Thursday’s semiconductor rally also coincided with expanded Marvell–GlobalFoundries capacity for AI data-centre connectivity.  But there’s still one giant question: Does 2× chip demand eventually translate into 2× the economic returns for the AI ecosystem?

🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS DIDN’T CARE. That’s what caught my attention Thursday. The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, with policymakers still signalling another hike could come this year. Yet stocks ripped higher: 🚀 Nasdaq +1.69% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📉 10Y Treasury yield back to ~4.93% 🛢️ Brent crude ~1% lower And jobless claims came in at just 196K, pointing to continued labour-market resilience.  So what is the market actually saying? Maybe the trade isn’t “Fed is dovish.” Maybe it’s: “As long as oil and long-term yields keep coming down, investors can look through the hike.” But here’s the catch 👀 Markets were still pricing about a 53% chance of another October hike on Thursday.  Is this the start of a bigger risk-on move, or are investors getting too comfortable with the Fed’s ha

Everyone is watching $NVDA, $AMD and memory stocks for the next AI move. I’m watching power infrastructure. $GNRC just landed a long-term agreement with Amazon to supply backup generators for its data centers, with $2.4B of initial deliveries expected in 2027–2028 and the potential for purchases to reach $8B.  That changes the story for Generac. The AI buildout doesn’t stop at GPUs. Every new hyperscale data center needs electricity, backup generation and reliable infrastructure. As computing demand keeps expanding, power availability is becoming an increasingly important part of the AI investment cycle. What caught my attention is that this isn’t just an analyst prediction — Amazon has actually signed the supply agreement. There is a catch, though. Amazon received warrants for up to ~1.6

If this were purely a broad memory price-hike story, you’d expect MU, SNDK, WDC and STX to move more consistently together. Instead, investors are starting to separate DRAM/AI demand from NAND and storage exposure. That doesn’t necessarily kill the memory thesis—it may mean the market is getting more selective about where the pricing power actually shows up. For me, the next key test is whether Micron’s upcoming results confirm that pricing and AI-driven demand are still translating into stronger orders. If they do, this pullback could look more like rotation than a broken thesis. What matters most now: pricing, volumes, or margins? 👀 ::: Recent reporting supports the idea that expectations and valuation are becoming increasingly important alongside the underlying AI-memory demand story.&n

#Circle: Good News, Bad Stock Reaction? 👀 Circle dropped another 6.78% to $80.45 — despite a headline stack that looks incredibly bullish. BlackRock. Mastercard. Visa. Plus Circle is acquiring Tazapay, giving it exposure to cross-border payments with more than $25B in annualized volume. So why is the stock still falling? Maybe the market is asking a harder question: Can Circle turn partnerships into actual payment volume and recurring economics? A major partner validates the opportunity. It doesn’t automatically validate the valuation. And until regulatory rules become clearer, investors still have to price in how quickly institutional adoption can translate into real USDC flows and revenue. That’s the disconnect I’m watching: 🤝 Partnerships = credibility 💵 Volume = monetization 📜 Regulati

Optical networking just had a serious comeback — but there’s one thing bothering me: There wasn’t a major headline driving it. Lumentum jumped nearly 10%, while AXT, Semtech, Coherent and Marvell also moved higher. The obvious AI argument is still there: 🤖 More AI data centers 📡 More data moving between GPUs ⚡ Higher bandwidth requirements 🔌 Optical connections becoming increasingly important But if the fundamentals were already bullish last week, why did these stocks sell off then? That makes me question whether Wednesday’s move was primarily: A) New demand expectations B) Short covering + dip buying C) Rotation back into AI infrastructure D) A combination of all three I’m watching volume and whether these stocks can hold the gains over the next few sessions. A one-day rebound is a trade.