$Oracle(ORCL)$ NOV20 130C - still actionable. Zone: $125.18 to $126.94 Invalidation: close under $123.75 Objectives: $133.62, then $141.19 The math: up 6.0% to the first objective and 12.0% to the second, against 1.8% risk on the invalidation, better than 6 to 1 to the second. Picture a big software name that has been cut down by more than half over the past year and is now sitting just above the low it set for the year. Monday it held its low near $123.75 and closed at $126.06, which in plain words means sellers pushed hard and still could not break the floor. This swing simply bets that floor holds while the bounce walks first toward $133.62 and then toward $141.19, with a close under that Monday low telling
$Oracle(ORCL)$ It looks like it's at or near its low point. This could bounce back into the $200s, though it might take 6-8 months. I'm holding strong.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ NOV20 255C still looks actionable. Zone: $247.35 to $250.83 Invalidation: close under $247.23 Objectives: $255, then $265 The math works out to roughly 2.4% upside to the first objective and 6.4% to the second, against 0.7% risk at the invalidation level. That's better than 8 to 1 to the second target. Amazon took a hard slide last week and then flattened out on Monday. It closed at $249.09, slightly higher on the day, after dipping to $247.23 and holding there. Sellers looked like they ran out of steam right at that floor. The setup simply assumes that floor holds and buyers carry the price back toward $255 first, then toward the round $265 level. A close under that Monday low would invalidate the read. One thing worth not
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Fewer people are saying it's going to zero and more are saying it's going to $240. It's about odds, strategy and conviction, not timing. The market has shown visible momentum.
$Paramount Skydance Corp(SKYD)$ SKYDWSDavid Ellison is channeling the good parts of Steve Jobs. He knew him well. Youth is on our side this time. Technology from Skydance should take us out of the dark ages of moribund storytelling and the patronizing garbage coming from names like $Walt Disney(DIS)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ and AMZN.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Jassy's "sold-out to 27-inch" comment is bullish, though the interview was already out Friday midday on X and other outlets. The news just didn't hit the wires and major media until after the close. He's made similar remarks before, so it's hard to say how much the market will actually react. That said, all the pessimism around the Anthropic IPO tied to the hyper growth slowdown in August-September seems to be reversing. Eventually people will just treat the Anthropic vs. OpenAI rivalry as normal. We're in a decent spot there with both served through Bedrock.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ George Carlin had a point when he said to never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups. There were probably cavemen who panic sold the wheel right after it was invented.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Their SaaS business is rock solid, and AI is the future. This could reach $500 in 3 years. Most likely closing between $160 and $180 by the end of the year. Next week is their biggest annual conference.