[Stock Prediction] SpaceX Earnings Tonight: Rebound or Another Selloff?

Tiger_Earnings
08-04 16:13

SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a public company after the market closes on Tuesday, August 4. Wall Street expects second-quarter revenue of about $6.9 billion and EBITDA of roughly $2.1 billion. $SpaceX(SPCX)$

SpaceX shares have fallen for five consecutive weeks. The stock is trading near $110, about 19% below its $135 IPO price and more than 50% below its intraday high of $225.64. More than $500 billion in market value has been wiped out since the stock peaked. Short sellers, meanwhile, have made an estimated $8.3 billion in paper profits since the IPO.

Another major test will come after earnings. Around 912 million shares, worth nearly $100 billion, are expected to become eligible for sale on August 6 as lockup restrictions expire. Can earnings restore investor confidence？

What to Watch

  • Starlink remains SpaceX’s main profit engine. The service ended the first quarter with 10.3 million subscribers, more than double the number from a year earlier. Investors will focus on subscriber growth, revenue and demand from corporate and government customers.

  • AI spending will also come under scrutiny. SpaceX’s AI segment generated $818 million in first-quarter revenue, but posted a $2.5 billion operating loss and $7.7 billion in capital spending. Investors want to know whether new compute deals with Anthropic and Google can help offset the cost of building data centers and training AI models.

  • Starship remains central to the long-term story. Investors will look for updates on the next test flight, commercial launch plans and future spending.

  • About 912 million shares are expected to become eligible for sale two days after earnings. Another 319 million shares could be unlocked roughly a week later. That could create significant selling pressure if early investors decide to cash out or reduce their holdings.

  • The earnings call may matter more than the headline numbers. Elon Musk will need to give investors clearer targets for Starlink, AI, Starship and capital spending.

Will SpaceX rebound after earnings？

How to Participate

  • Click to vote. Guess where $SpaceX(SPCX)$ will move following its earnings report. If you get the correct answer, you may divide 1,000 Tiger Coins with other Tigers.

  • For example, if 10 Tigers get the right answer, each will receive 100 Tiger Coins. If 100 Tigers get the right answer, each will receive 10 Tiger Coins.

  • Reply and share your view: Are you bullish or bearish on $SpaceX(SPCX)$ after earnings? Tell us why!

Event Period

  • Ends: 4:00 AM SGT, August 5

voteHow will SpaceX close after its earnings report?(Single choice)
99 people voted· Ended
# SpaceX Rises 5.7% Before Earnings — Who Moves First as 915M Shares Unlock?

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Comment（2）

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  • Ah_Meng
    ·08-04 17:09
    It might be a bullish event but in two days, with the release of a lot more shares (more than existing free float), the flooding of market with more shares is itself a bearish event. Thus, I am neutral for tonight's result release. If the premium is low enough, I am still hoping to buy put option on it...  wait and see... I have never got the guess correct for these events, so don't trust my judgement [Tongue] [Facepalm] [Silence] [Chuckle] Then again, being first to vote and comment, will add that a lot more shares are waiting on the sidelines for release into the market. I would think as a middle term, this is negative for the company shares. The flooding of market with a lot more shares would outweigh positive events from the company. Keep eyes 👀 open and be aware what you are buying into.
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  • Shyon
    ·08-04 18:18
    My vote: 🟢 Very Green (+10% or more).

    I think the market has become too pessimistic. After five consecutive weeks of selling, much of the bad news—including the lockup expiration—has likely already been priced in.

    The key isn't just the headline numbers, but management's guidance. If SpaceX reports solid Starlink growth, provides encouraging updates on AI and Starship, and outlines a clear long-term roadmap, investor confidence could recover quickly.

    I also believe the recent selloff has lowered expectations to a level where even a modest beat could have a meaningful impact on the stock. If management demonstrates that AI investments are beginning to generate stronger commercial returns, it could become the next catalyst for a re-rating.

    With expectations already low and short interest still elevated, a positive earnings surprise could trigger a strong rebound and even a short squeeze.

    @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @Tiger_Earnings

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